cotton-market-06-12-2013

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA Circular Series FOP 06 13 June 2013 Strong Demand Beyond China for U.S. Cotton Whereas U.S. cotton exports to China have eased over the past ten months, shipments to other countries have jumped by more than 50 percent for a variety of reasons. Weaker competition due to tighter global supplies, especially from India, has caused import demand from large markets like Pakistan and Vietnam to shift to the United States. Smaller crops in some other key producing countries, like Turkey and Pakistan, have supported demand for additional U.S. supplies to meet growing consumption. In Southeast Asia, strong demand for U.S. cotton has been triggered by rising Asian demand for textiles produced by Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Since domestic production supplies only about 5 percent of consumption, these countries are highly dependent on imports. Tightening exportable supplies from Brazil and Australia have provided an opportunity to ship additional U.S. cotton to Southeast Asian markets in the later months of the marketing year. Cotton: World Markets and Trade Overview Global production and consumption for 2013/14 are down. Trade is lowered on reduced import demand from China. Lower U.S. production and tightening stocks are expected to reduce exportable supplies and cause the U.S. season average farm price to rise. For 2012/13, U.S. exports are up on continued strong sales and shipments. Prices The U.S. spot price and the A-Index continued to be supported as China’s reserve policy tightens stocks outside of China. 2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK Major Exporters: United States is revised down 500,000 bales to 11.0 million on decreased exportable supplies. Australia is lowered 500,000 bales to 4.2 million on reduced exportable supplies. Brazil is down 200,000 bales to 2.6 million. India is raised 200,000 bales to 5.7 million on reduced domestic use. Major Importers: China is cut 1.0 million bales to 11.0 million on lower world exportable supplies. Bangladesh is down 150,000 bales to 3.6 million on lower expected use. Pakistan is lowered 100,000 bales to 3.0 million. Trade Changes 2012/13 Major Exporters: Raised primarily on higher imports by China. United States is up 350,000 bales to 13.6 million. Australia is raised 500,000 bales to 5.7 million. India is raised 200,000 bales to 7.2 million. Turkmenistan is increased 150,000 bales to 1.1 million. Major Importers: China is raised 1.75 million bales to 20.0 million on government stock building. June 2013 Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha) Country Mktg Year Area Harvested Beginning Stocks Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom. Cons. Ending Stocks Algeria 220204000 2012/13 220202020 2013/14 Australia -5000005000000 2012/13 0000-50000-5000 2013/14 Azerbaijan -4-50-590000 2011/12 -9-50-51000-40 2012/13 -19-100-1050-15-9-2 2013/14 Bangladesh 100-1000-10000000 2012/13 50-1000-1000-15001000 2013/14 Benin -25000250000 2012/13 -25000000-250 2013/14 Brazil 200000-2000000 2013/14 Bulgaria 000055000 2012/13 000055000 2013/14 Burkina -50000500000 2012/13 -50000000-50-5 2013/14 Cameroon -25000250000 2012/13 0000-2500-250 2013/14 Chad -15000150000 2012/13 -5000-1000-150 2013/14 China 1,75000001,750000 2012/13 7500000-1,00001,7500 2013/14 Cote d'Ivoire June 2013 Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued) (1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha) Country Mktg Year Area Harvested Beginning Stocks Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom. Cons. Ending Stocks -50000500000 2012/13 -50000000-500 2013/14 Greece -25000250000 2012/13 -25000000-250 2013/14 India -2000002000000 2012/13 -150-2500-25020000-2000 2013/14 Indonesia 00000000-1 2013/14 Kazakhstan -50000500000 2012/13 -30000-2510-15-50-6 2013/14 Mali -75000750000 2012/13 -50000-2500-750 2013/14 Pakistan -500000-50000 2012/13 -1500000-1000-500 2013/14 Senegal -10000-150-250-5 2012/13 -2000-100-2-10-3 2013/14 Spain -10000-150-250-6 2013/14 Syria -25000250000 2012/13 -25000000-250 2013/14 Tanzania 2500025050050 2012/13 00002500250 2013/14 Togo -15000150000 2012/13 -15000000-150 2013/14 Turkmenistan June 2013 Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued) (1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha) Country Mktg Year Area Harvested Beginning Stocks Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom. Cons. Ending Stocks -1500001500000 2012/13 -25000000-100-150-25 2013/14 United States -400500503500000 2012/13 -400000-5000-500-400-121 2013/14 Uzbekistan -50000500000 2012/13 -50000000-500 2013/14 Vietnam 5010001000150000 2013/14 World World -4-50-590000 2011/12 153-530-531,6301,70925-445 2012/13 -254-2580-258-1,075-1,083-657153-169 2013/14 June 2013 Table 01 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1) (1000 MT) 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 May 2013/14 Jun 2013/14 Production none 6,967 China 6,641 7,403 7,620 7,403 7,403 5,182 India 5,748 5,987 5,770 5,879 5,879 2,654 United States 3,942 3,391 3,770 3,048 2,939 2,012 Pakistan 1,881 2,308 2,025 2,068 2,068 1,187 Brazil 1,960 1,894 1,263 1,524 1,524 386 Australia 914 1,196 936 980 980 849 Uzbekistan 893 914 980 980 980 3,006 Other 3,350 4,153 3,975 3,770 3,736 22,243 Total 25,328 27,247 26,339 25,652 25,509 USE Dom. Consumption none 10,886 China 10,015 8,274 7,838 7,838 7,838 4,300 India 4,474 4,300 4,953 5,117 5,062 2,264 Pakistan 2,155 2,177 2,504 2,613 2,613 1,285 Turkey 1,219 1,219 1,306 1,328 1,328 958 Brazil 936 871 893 914 914 849 Bangladesh 806 718 784 849 827 773 United States 849 718 751 762 762 4,581 Other 4,442 4,214 4,506 4,623 4,643 25,897 Total 24,898 22,492 23,536 24,044 23,988 Imports none 2,374 China 2,608 5,341 4,355 2,613 2,395 957 Turkey 729 519 806 871 871 849 Bangladesh 806 697 784 816 784 343 Pakistan 314 196 588 675 653 369 Vietnam 342 354 501 512 544 544 Indonesia 523 501 523 533 533 393 Thailand 381 275 337 354 354 2,151 Other 2,116 1,931 2,323 2,226 2,230 7,980 Total 7,819 9,813 10,216 8,600 8,365 Exports none 2,621 United States 3,130 2,550 2,961 2,504 2,395 1,426 India 1,089 2,412 1,568 1,197 1,241 460 Australia 545 1,010 1,241 1,023 914 827 Uzbekistan 577 544 697 697 697 433 Brazil 435 1,043 980 610 566 169 Burkina 147 142 250 256 256 96 Mali 98 136 191 223 218 1,710 Other 1,706 2,150 2,267 2,091 2,080 7,743 Total 7,727 9,989 10,154 8,601 8,367 Ending Stocks none 3,102 China 2,309 6,767 10,888 12,668 12,831 2,041 India 2,433 1,947 1,675 1,610 1,577 948 Brazil 1,721 1,740 1,191 1,240 1,283 662 Pakistan 549 617 634 704 672 163 Australia 562 778 503 597 597 642 United States 566 729 784 653 566 349 Turkey 287 270 295 290 290 2,251 Other 2,338 2,657 2,523 2,431 2,321 10,158 Total 10,765 15,506 18,492 20,192 20,137 June 2013 Table 02 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1) (1000 Bales) 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 May 2013/14 Jun 2013/14 Production none 1,775 Australia 4,200 5,495 4,300 4,500 4,500 5,450 Brazil 9,000 8,700 5,800 7,000 7,000 32,000 China 30,500 34,000 35,000 34,000 34,000 23,800 India 26,400 27,500 26,500 27,000 27,000 9,240 Pakistan 8,640 10,600 9,300 9,500 9,500 12,188 United States 18,104 15,573 17,315 14,000 13,500 3,900 Uzbekistan 4,100 4,200 4,500 4,500 4,500 13,805 Other 15,387 19,073 18,257 17,317 17,160 102,158 Total 116,331 125,141 120,972 117,817 117,160 USE Dom. Consumption none 3,900 Bangladesh 3,700 3,300 3,600 3,900 3,800 4,400 Brazil 4,300 4,000 4,100 4,200 4,200 50,000 China 46,000 38,000 36,000 36,000 36,000 19,750 India 20,550 19,750 22,750 23,500 23,250 2,450 Indonesia 2,350 2,225 2,350 2,450 2,450 1,900 Mexico 1,700 1,700 1,800 1,900 1,900 10,400 Pakistan 9,900 10,000 11,500 12,000 12,000 5,900 Turkey 5,600 5,600 6,000 6,100 6,100 3,550 United States 3,900 3,300 3,450 3,500 3,500 1,600 Vietnam 1,625 1,650 2,200 2,350 2,450 15,092 Other 14,729 13,780 14,347 14,531 14,523 118,942 Total 114,354 103,305 108,097 110,431 110,173 Imports none 3,900 Bangladesh 3,700 3,200 3,600 3,750 3,600 10,903 China 11,979 24,533 20,000 12,000 11,000 2,500 Indonesia 2,400 2,300 2,400 2,450 2,450 1,010 Korea, South 1,038 1,170 1,225 1,230 1,230 1,393 Mexico 1,196 1,000 1,000 1,200 1,200 1,574 Pakistan 1,443 900 2,700 3,100 3,000 1,016 Taiwan 803 863 1,000 1,025 1,025 1,806 Thailand 1,752 1,263 1,550 1,625 1,625 4,394 Turkey 3,350 2,382 3,700 4,000 4,000 1,695 Vietnam 1,569 1,625 2,300 2,350 2,500 6,461 Other 6,682 5,835 7,444 6,771 6,788 36,652 Total 35,912 45,071 46,919 39,501 38,418 Exports none 2,115 Australia 2,501 4,640 5,700 4,700 4,200 1,990 Brazil 2,000 4,792 4,500 2,800 2,600 775 Burkina 675 650 1,150 1,175 1,175 875 Greece 750 1,000 1,225 925 925 6,550 India 5,000 11,080 7,200 5,500 5,700 43 Malaysia 80 1,023 900 800 800 440 Mali 450 625 875 1,025 1,000 1,200 Turkmenistan 1,100 750 1,075 1,000 1,000 12,037 United States 14,376 11,714 13,600 11,500 11,000 3,800 Uzbekistan 2,650 2,500 3,200 3,200 3,200 5,737 Other 5,907 7,103 7,213 6,879 6,829 35,562 Total 35,489 45,877 46,638 39,504 38,429 Ending Stocks none 749 Australia 2,583 3,573 2,308 2,743 2,743 4,353 Brazil 7,906 7,993 5,468 5,693 5,893 14,246 China 10,603 31,081 50,006 58,181 58,931 9,374 India 11,174 8,944 7,694 7,394 7,244 3,042 Pakistan 2,520 2,835 2,910 3,235 3,085 1,605 Turkey 1,319 1,241 1,356 1,331 1,331 2,947 United States 2,600 3,350 3,600 3,000 2,600 10,339 Other 10,739 12,202 11,589 11,164 10,660 46,655 Total 49,444 71,219 84,931 92,741 92,487 June 2013 Table 04 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production From last month From last year MBalesPercent Yield (Kilograms per hectare) Jun 2011/12 MBales Country / Region Area (Million hectares) Production (Million 480 lb. bales) Change in Production 2011/12 Prel. 2012/13 May May Prel. 2012/13 Jun Prel. 2012/13 May Jun Percent 2013/14 Proj.2013/14 Proj. 2013/14 Proj. 2011/12 35.72World -3.15-3.81-0.56-0.66117.1634.35 34.04 33.88 763 767 753 753 125.14 120.97 117.82 3.83United States -22.03-3.82-3.57-0.5013.503.79 3.40 3.28 886 994 897 897 15.57 17.32 14.00 31.89Total Foreign 0.000.00-0.15-0.16103.6630.56 30.65 30.60 748 739 738 738 109.57 103.66 103.82 none Western Hemisphere 1.40 Brazil 20.691.200.000.007.000.89 1.08 1.08 1,353 1,427 1,418 1,418 8.70 5.80 7.00 0.19 Mexico -22.02-0.240.000.000.850.16 0.13 0.13 1,338 1,512 1,424 1,424 1.18 1.09 0.85 0.53 Argentina 21.020.170.000.000.950.36 0.43 0.43 411 475 487 487 1.00 0.79 0.95 0.08 Paraguay 11.110.010.000.000.100.06 0.06 0.06 340 327 363 363 0.13 0.09 0.10 0.05 Peru 16.670.030.000.000.180.04 0.04 0.04 862 859 866 866 0.19 0.15 0.18 0.05 Colombia -10.00-0.020.000.000.140.04 0.04 0.04 748 778 794 794 0.17 0.15 0.14 Africa 0.40 Burkina -7.41-0.090.000.001.130.58 0.58 0.58 441 456 422 426 0.80 1.22 1.13 0.48 Mali 13.640.120.000.001.000.52 0.56 0.56 393 366 389 389 0.86 0.88 1.00 0.28 Cote d'Ivoire -6.47-0.050.000.000.650.38 0.40 0.40 385 404 354 354 0.50 0.70 0.65 0.18 Cameroon -7.61-0.040.000.000.430.21 0.21 0.21 404 477 441 441 0.33 0.46 0.43 0.20 Benin 0.000.000.000.000.550.25 0.27 0.27 381 479 444 444 0.35 0.55 0.55 0.20 Chad 2.560.010.000.000.200.20 0.20 0.20 165 212 218 218 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.10 Togo 0.000.000.000.000.200.13 0.13 0.13 367 348 348 348 0.16 0.20 0.20 0.03 Senegal -3.230.00-3.230.000.060.04 0.04 0.03 371 386 386 408 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.22 Egypt -8.16-0.040.000.000.450.14 0.13 0.13 737 746 754 754 0.75 0.49 0.45 0.47 Zimbabwe 0.000.000.000.000.500.38 0.40 0.40 278 290 272 272 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.33 Nigeria -7.69-0.030.000.000.300.30 0.29 0.29 218 236 225 225 0.33 0.33 0.30 Asia Oceania 5.50 China -2.86-1.000.000.0034.005.30 5.10 5.10 1,346 1,438 1,452 1,452 34.00 35.00 34.00 12.20 India 1.890.500.000.0027.0011.80 12.00 12.00 491 489 490 490 27.50 26.50 27.00 3.00 Pakistan 2.150.200.000.009.503.00 3.00 3.00 769 675 689 689 10.60 9.30 9.50 0.16 Kazakhstan -1.20-0.01-3.53-0.020.410.15 0.15 0.14 590 611 617 620 0.44 0.42 0.43 0.20 Tajikistan 0.000.000.000.000.550.20 0.20 0.20 619 599 599 599 0.58 0.55 0.55 0.58 Turkmenistan -6.25-0.10-6.25-0.101.500.60 0.60 0.58 530 581 581 568 1.40 1.60 1.60 1.31 Uzbekistan 0.000.000.000.004.501.32 1.30 1.30 698 745 754 754 4.20 4.50 4.50 0.49 Turkey -13.46-0.350.000.002.250.41 0.33 0.33 1,529 1,381 1,484 1,484 3.44 2.60 2.25 0.60 Australia 4.650.200.000.004.500.44 0.47 0.47 1,994 2,118 2,107 2,107 5.50 4.30 4.50 0.15 Syria -4.83-0.040.000.000.690.13 0.12 0.12 1,306 1,263 1,252 1,252 0.90 0.73 0.69 0.30 Burma 0.000.000.000.000.270.30 0.30 0.30 196 196 196 196 0.27 0.27 0.27 Europe 0.29 Greece -21.81-0.270.000.000.950.29 0.22 0.22 1,016 928 940 940 1.33 1.22 0.95 1.96Others -5.75-0.18-1.37-0.042.871.97 1.89 1.88 356 336 335 332 3.20 3.05 2.91 Note: Yeild for Total Foreign and Others is an incorrect calculation. June 2013 (1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales) Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2013/14 Area Harvested Ending Stocks ExportsLossUseTotal Supply ImportsProductionCountry 0 15070988550 Afghanistan 13 0 001211 Albania 1 23 00232900 Algeria 6 3 3051052 Angola 2 35 22507751,667950425 Argentina 667 1 001200 Armenia 1 0 4,200-175406,8084,500465 Australia 2,743 21 30182500 Austria 4 0 20060996523 Azerbaijan 19 30 00303700 Bahrain 7 3,600 0103,8004,63612045 Bangladesh 826 60 00607000 Belarus 10 55 300256400 Belgium-Luxembour 9 0 550010693550270 Benin 133 4 201836145 Bolivia 16 75 2,600-1504,20012,5437,0001,075 Brazil 5,893 15 502029102 Bulgaria 4 0 1,175041,4721,125575 Burkina 293 0 650200326270300 Burma 61 5 005700 Cambodia 2 0 375040530425210 Cameroon 115 7 007900 Canada 2 0 3005563536 Central African Republic 21 0 180015243200200 Chad 48 10 00101300 Chile 3 11,000 75036,00095,00634,0005,100 China 58,931 225 2535044313537 Colombia 86 2 0017211530 Congo (Kinshasa) 4 1 002311 Costa Rica 1 0 650050913650400 Cote d'Ivoire 213 1 001200 Croatia 1 10 00141644 Cuba 2 0 000000 Cyprus 0 25 00253100 Czech Republic 6 1 001200 Denmark 1 June 2013 (1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales) Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2013/14 (Continued) Area Harvested Ending Stocks ExportsLossUseTotal Supply ImportsProductionCountry 1 004534 Dominican Republic 1 70 00809793 Ecuador 17 625 350107001,264450130 Egypt 204 130 0013018311 El Salvador 53 0 000000 Estonia 0 0 75090214170120 Ethiopia 49 85 1007510000 France 15 220 30019025500 Germany 35 0 15015362816 Ghana 6 10 925501001,301950220 Greece 226 90 009511732 Guatemala 22 0 1800211814 Guinea 3 5 00101157 Haiti 1 1 005742 Honduras 2 200 100010024900 Hong Kong 49 6 105800 Hungary 2 1,000 5,700-50023,25035,69427,00012,000 India 7,244 2,450 0502,4502,969309 Indonesia 469 300 200550730275100 Iran 160 60 00901303020 Iraq 40 2 002200 Ireland 0 2 500467506 Israel 13 240 20022027100 Italy 31 315 0031536100 Japan 46 30 3752575596410144 Kazakhstan 121 10 0040472835 Kenya 7 95 001502055519 Korea, North 55 1,230 1001,2251,49200 Korea, South 257 0 9501013310030 Kyrgyzstan 28 1 001100 Latvia 0 3 003400 Lebanon 1 2 101300 Lithuania 1 20 00202300 Macedonia 3 0 10050716030 Madagascar 11 0 17005266180160 Malawi 91 June 2013 (1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales) Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2013/14 (Continued) Area Harvested Ending Stocks ExportsLossUseTotal Supply ImportsProductionCountry 1,000 80001501,04600 Malaysia 96 0 1,0000251,2821,000560 Mali 257 90 009011000 Mauritius 20 1,200 200251,9002,775850130 Mexico 650 10 00101400 Moldova 4 169 0017020411 Morocco 34 0 130010205125135 Mozambique 65 20 10202500 Netherlands 4 0 90112104 Nicaragua 2 0 5041399 Niger 4 50 650300464300290 Nigeria 99 3,000 3002512,00015,4109,5003,000 Pakistan 3,085 0 000000 Panama 0 5 8002515810060 Paraguay 53 275 5046073317544 Peru 268 40 00405421 Philippines 14 13 00131600 Poland 3 120 0012015500 Portugal 35 5 005700 Romania 2 500 0050059800 Russia 98 0 40020776032 Senegal 17 4 004500 Serbia and Montenegro 1 5 5001000 Singapore 5 0 000000 Slovakia 0 5 005600 Slovenia 1 3 001011712 Somalia 1 170 00200258307 South Africa 58 10 25001531524062 Spain 50 11 10152155 Sri Lanka 5 0 1100817810050 Sudan 60 0 000000 Sweden 0 17 00172200 Switzerland 5 0 1250550909690120 Syria 234 1,025 001,0251,26800 Taiwan 243 0 550035756550200 Tajikistan 171 June 2013 (1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales) Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2013/14 (Continued) Area Harvested Ending Stocks ExportsLossUseTotal Supply ImportsProductionCountry 0 2750150825400410 Tanzania 400 1,625 0251,6001,91221 Thailand 287 0 175015247200125 Togo 57 90 10090113102 Tunisia 13 4,000 17506,1007,6062,250330 Turkey 1,331 0 1,00007252,2741,500575 Turkmenistan 549 0 11002021011080 Uganda 80 19 00192300 Ukraine 4 2 200300 United Kingdom 1 5 11,00053,50017,10513,5003,278 United States 2,600 3 003400 Uruguay 1 0 3,20001,5005,8484,5001,300 Uzbekistan 1,148 15 001001218515 Venezuela 21 2,500 002,4502,9822110 Vietnam 532 0 1032393419 Yemen 6 0 225070480275280 Zambia 185 0 4001590726500400 Zimbabwe 221 World 38,418 38,429-580110,173240,509117,16033,875 World 92,487 June 2013 (1000 MT) Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2013/2014 Area Harvested Ending Stocks ExportsLossUseTotal Supply ImportsProductionCountry 0 3015211911 Afghanistan 3 0 000000 Albania 0 5 005600 Algeria 1 1 101210 Angola 0 8 49016936320793 Argentina 145 0 000000 Armenia 0 0 914-3891,482980101 Australia 597 5 104500 Austria 1 0 401322145 Azerbaijan 4 7 007800 Bahrain 2 784 028271,0092610 Bangladesh 180 13 00131500 Belarus 2 12 7051400 Belgium-Luxembour 2 0 1200215112059 Benin 29 1 004831 Bolivia 3 16 566-339142,7311,524234 Brazil 1,283 3 104620 Bulgaria 1 0 25601320245125 Burkina 64 0 14044715965 Burma 13 1 001200 Cambodia 0 0 82091159346 Cameroon 25 2 002200 Canada 0 0 7011288 Central African Republic 5 0 3903534444 Chad 10 2 002300 Chile 1 2,395 1607,83820,6857,4031,110 China 12,831 49 017696298 Colombia 19 0 004537 Congo (Kinshasa) 1 0 000100 Costa Rica 0 0 14201119914287 Cote d'Ivoire 46 0 000000 Croatia 0 2 003311 Cuba 0 0 000000 Cyprus 0 5 005700 Czech Republic 1 0 000000 Denmark 0 June 2013 (1000 MT) Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2013/2014 (Continued) Area Harvested Ending Stocks ExportsLossUseTotal Supply ImportsProductionCountry 0 001111 Dominican Republic 0 15 00172121 Ecuador 4 136 7621522759828