手机游戏行业报告

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia China Technology Periodical China TMT Daily Date 21 March 2013 Mobile games update; also, 0941.HK, BIDU ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012. Alan Hellawell III Alex Yao Research Analyst Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6240 (+86) 21 2080 1666 alan.hellawell@db.com alex.yao@db.com TOP CHINA TMT PICKS Company Rating Target Price China Unicom Buy HKD 18.30 Tencent Buy HKD 290.00 Sina Buy USD 63.30 CHINA TMT STOCKS Company Rating Close 1D% 3M% as of 19/03 TELCOS China Comm Service Buy 4.9 -5.7 9.8 China Mobile Hold 80.4 -0.8 -11.2 China Telecom Buy 3.9 -2.3 -9.1 China Unicom Buy 10.4 -0.6 -14.0 INTERNET/ONLINE GAMING Baidu Hold 84.2 -1.1 -16.2 Ctrip.com Int'l Hold 19.8 0.1 -13.9 Netease.com Buy 53.1 1.5 29.1 Phoenix New Media Buy 3.9 -2.0 7.7 RenRen Hold 3.0 0.0 -14.2 Sina Corp Buy 47.5 -1.3 -3.0 Sohu.com Hold 47.1 1.0 6.8 SouFun Buy 24.2 0.6 3.8 Tencent Buy 259.2 -1.5 4.1 TECHNOLOGY AsiaInfo-Linkage Hold 11.8 0.4 12.5 AutoNavi Buy 10.3 -2.5 -11.8 Foxconn Int'l Hldgs Hold 2.8 -1.1 -26.7 Lenovo Group Hold 7.7 2.8 6.6 Synnex Technology Buy 55.5 0.2 4.5 Youku Buy 21.5 -4.8 26.0 ZTE Hold 14.6 0.5 13.7 Indices Close 1D% 3M% as of 19/03 HSI 22041.9 -0.2 -2.7 HSCEI 10740.1 -0.5 -5.4 Nasdaq 3229.1 -0.3 6.1 Sources: DB, Bloomberg Finance LP (Please click through to the .pdf version of this document for a full overview of today's news and views.) FEATURE: The 2012 mobile gaming report from iiMedia iiMedia on 13 March released a report on the 2012 China mobile gaming market. According to the report, the mobile gaming market in China reached RMB5.9b in 2012, up 79% YoY. Gaming revenue per se reached RMB2.2b as of 2012, up 88% YoY. The total number of mobile gamers was ~286m by the end of 2012 (up 63% YoY), roughly 47.9m of which were mobile online gamers (that is to say, those that were not just playing apps on their smartphones "offline", but were playing collaboratively on-line, etc.) This number was up 66% YoY. Although mobile online gamers only accounted for roughly 17% of total mobile gamers, they contributed some 37% of total mobile gaming revenue in 2012. Mobile gaming download channels Mobile games saw a higher penetration rate on Android than on iOS in 2012, representing roughly 26% of total apps on Android vs. 17% on the iOS platform. According to iiMedia, Tencent Games was the most popular mobile games download channel among users, covering roughly 54% of total mobile gamers, followed by UC (~37%), Qihoo’s platform (~27%), 91Mobile (~26%) and D.cn (~14%). Mobile gamer demographics iiMedia revealed that roughly 66% of mobile gamers in China were male and 34% were female. Female users boasted a slightly higher paying ratio (18.8%) than male users (17.5%). In terms of age, users between 21-25 years of age accounted for roughly 32% of overall mobile gamers, followed by those between 16-20 (~20%), 26-30 (~18%), below 15 years old (~14%), 31-35 (~13%), etc. It seems that students and young “white-collar” groups represented a majority of total mobile gamers. Gamer behaviors: time spent In terms of time spent on mobile games, roughly 32% of gamers in China played mobile games for 31-60 minutes per session, followed those who played 61-120 minutes per session (~27%), 15-30 minutes (~24%), and less than 15 minutes (~13%). Similar to mobile commerce usage, mobile gamers also tended to leverage the service across fragmented periods of time. According to the report, most preferred playing mobile games “on buses/vehicles” (some ~32% of respondents), followed by “before going to sleep” (~31%), “at home” (~30%), “during free time at work” (~23%), “when waiting for somebody” (~21%), etc. Paying behaviors Compared to 2011, the apparent willingness to pay to play among Chinese mobile gamers increased slightly by the end of 2012. Roughly 28% of mobile gamers felt comfortable paying less than RMB10 for each mobile game. Interestingly, some Continued on the next page 21 March 2013 China TMT Daily Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 73% of respondents are willing to pay up RMB50 per game. In-game advertising and item-based charged gaming (with the game itself being free of charge) are the most accepted mobile gaming models, representing ~38% and ~24% of overall respondents. iiMedia revealed that mobile gaming remains the most feasible monetization approach compared to other mobile apps, especially through the pathways of advertising and in-game charging. DAILY NEWS Baidu, Yihaodian announce Joint Business Plan Baidu and Chinese e-commerce site Yihaodian announced a strategic partnership on JBH (Joint Business Plan). The two companies will deeply cooperate in multiple aspects in 2013, including resource sharing, big data application, advertising, mobile e-commerce, marketing innovations, etc. Meanwhile, the partnership will extend to Baidu’s product system covering Baidu Knows, Baidu PostBar, image search, etc. As part of the partnership, Yihaodian and Baidu jointly released an “Imported Food Brand Online Shopping Ranking” today (20 March), based the search queries and purchases for imported food from Yihaodian’s over 30m registered users. (techweb.com.cn, 20 March, 2013) China Mobile wins 4G license in Hong Kong Hong Kong’s Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA) announced the operators that have obtained the 4G licenses on 19 March. China Mobile Hong Kong Company Limited was one of four successful bidders. The 4G spectrum involved in the bidding is in 2.5/2.6GHZ. A total 50MHz frequency range was assigned in the bidding, including 10MHz for Genius Brand Limited, 10MHz for CSL Limited, 10MHz for China Mobile and 20MHz for SmarTone Mobile Communications Limited. Successful bidders are allowed to leverage the spectrum for a term of 15 years. (techweb.com.cn, 20 March, 2013) Youku Tudou forms exclusive partnership with TVB Leading China online video group Youku Tudou announced an exclusive cooperative agreement with Hong Kong’s Television Broadcasts Limited (TVB) on 19 March. The two-year agreement allows Youku Tudou to broadcast nearly all the new and classic TV dramas of TVB. The two companies meanwhile will partner on the production of original content and resource sharing, such as joint promotions of the offline performances of TVB’s artists. Moreover, TVB will also allow Youku Tudou to broadcast its exclusive content on mobile devices. Prior to the merger, Youku and Tudou separately launched their respective TV channel in Jan 2010 and Jan 2011. (tech.sina.com.cn, 19 March, 2013) Baidu may acquire Aibang for USD100m According to news coverage, Chinese local service search platform Aibang.com will be acquired by Baidu. News coverage revealed that Baidu is interest in making a wholesale acquisition of Aibang’s operations, while the latter hopes to maintain its operational independence with Baidu being a major investor in the company. Baidu reportedly offered a valuation of USD100m for Aibang, which became profitable in 3Q12. Meanwhile, the core management team members of Aibang are all former Baidu employees, including the company’s CEO Liu Jianguo, co-founder Zhou Limin and COO Ma Haiping. (marbridgeconsulting.com, 19 March, 2013) Alipay denies establishing credit card company (finance.sina.com.cn, 19 March, 2013) CHINA TELCO, INTERNET, AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH Netease.com (NTES.OQ), USD 51.64 Buy Price Target USD 64.00 Price hike leads to earnings upside potential Published on 18 March 2013 Tencent (0700.HK), HKD 274.20 Buy Price Target HKD290.00 4Q preview Published on 17 March 2013 KEY TELCO KPIs Net Adds (mln) Dec 12 MoM YoY China Mobile 3.0 -20.3% -42.3% China Telecom 2.6 2.4% -16.2% China Unicom 3.1 -7.2% -16.0% Updated monthly Subscribers (mln) Total M/S China Mobile 710.3 64.0% China Telecom 160.6 14.5% China Unicom 239.3 21.5% Total 1,110.2 Updated monthly Blended ARPU (RMB) 3Q12 QoQ YoY China Mobile 68.3 3.0% -3.8% China Telecom 54.3 3.7% 4.1% China Unicom 48.5 1.8% 0.9% Updated quarterly Source: Company data INTERNET/ONLINE GAME KPIs Top Online Games Ranking Games Operator Up/Dn 1 Cross Fire Tencent - 2 Dungeon Fighter Tencent - 3 WoW Netease - 4 FWJ Netease - 5 League of Legends Tencent - 6 QQ Speed Tencent - 7 QQ Dancer Tencent - 8 Dragon Nest Shanda - 9 TLBB Sohu - 10 RIFT Shanda 39 Top 5 movers Current ranking Chg RIFT 10 39 XA 66 -35 Dou Po Cang Qiong 51 17 Perfect World II 36 10 World of Xianxia 24 8 Source: Soso, Baidu, Barchina, icafe, Xunlei, 17173 Updated on: March 13, 2013 KEY TECH KPIs CHINA PC MARKET 3Q11 Units (m) QoQ YoY Shipments 19.7 6.6% Top PC OEMs M/S 1. Lenovo 31.8% 2. Dell 9.7% 3. Acer 8.6% 4. Asus 7.5% 5. HP 7.4% Source: Gartner CHINA HANDSET MARKET 3Q11 Units (m) QoQ YoY Shipments 108.0 -2.6% -0.7% Top Handset OEMs M/S 1. Nokia 13.7% 2. Samsung 10.6% 3. ZTE 4.4% 4. Huawei 4.0% 5. Lenovo 3.3% Source: Gartner DB ECONOMIC FORECASTS China 2012F 2013F 2014F GDP (%) 7.7 8.2 8.9 Merch. exports (%) 7.0 10.0 15.0 CPI (%) 2.6 3.0 3.5 FX rate (eop) CNY/USD 6.22 6.06 5.91 Source: Deutsche Bank AG estimates 21 March 2013 China TMT Daily Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 3 Appendix 1 Important Disclosures Additional information available upon request For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr Analyst Certification This report covers more than one security and was contributed to by more than one analyst. The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the views of each contributor to this compendium report. In addition, each contributor has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this compendium report. Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock. Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share- holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell. Notes: 1. Newly issued research recommendations and target prices always supersede previously published research. 2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were: Buy: Expected total return (including dividends) of 10% or more over a 12-month period Hold: Expected total return (including dividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12- month period Sell: Expected total return (including dividends) of -10% or worse over a 12-month period 54 % 39 % 6 %17 % 15 % 13 % 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Buy Hold Sell Asia-Pacific Universe Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship 21 March 2013 China TMT Daily Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Regulatory Disclosures 1. Important Additional Conflict Disclosures Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. 2. 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