IBPC Becomes WHO Collaborative
Center for Biologics in China
Upcoming Events
Shanghai Jails Hospital Employees for
Taking Kickbacks
Recent Official and Executive Moves
New Report: Chinese Pharma Market
to Expand 12% Annually before 2020
Chinese B2C Online Drug Sales
Skyrocketed in 2012
New Study: Stem Cell Therapy Market
in APAC to Grow 10% Annually by 2018
MOH Issues Revision to the "Rules for
Drug Administrative Penalty Procedures"
SFDA Issues Six Technical Guidelines
for Rx-OTC Switch
SFDA Revises Package Insert of OTC
Levonorgestrel Tablets
China Raises Reward for Food and
Drug Whistleblowers to CNY 300K
Chongqing Reduces Prices of 103
Drug Products
Pharma Industry Growth Slowed in 2012
with Guarded Outlook This Year
Only 12.1% of the Doctors Are Satisfied
With the Domestic Academic Meetings
Government Publishes White Paper on
Medical and Health Services in China
MOH Encourages the Formation of
Medical Service Consortiums
Shanghai to Introduce Multiple Measures
to Healthcare Reform
Guangdong Releases Healthcare Reform
Plan for the 12th FYP Period
Guangdong to Reform Centralized
Hospital Drug Purchase Tender System?
Anhui to Consolidate Essential Drug
System in 2013
Henan Province's NRCMS Expands Major
Medical Coverage to 20 Diseases
Beijing's Healthcare Expenditures Grew
as Out-of-pocket Expenses Fell in 2011
China Initiates Its National Cancer Registry
Are East Asians More at Risk for Type-2
Diabetes?
EntreMed Files CTA with SFDA for
Oncology Drug Candidate
Zhifei Bio's Tuberculosis Vaccine Gains
SFDA Approval for Phase III Trials
China Opens Trademark Registration for
Retail/Wholesale Services of Drugs
USTR's 2012 Report on China's WTO
Compliance Highlights Remaining
Concerns in Pharma Sector
Growth of Chinese Pharma Falls as
Year-end Approaches
Government Issues New Measures to
Push 2010 GMP Implementation
Independent Drug Stores Account for
65.6% of All Drug Retailers in China
Credit Suisse: BMI Payment System
Reform to Benefit High-quality Generics
Local Company News
Foreign Company News
Service Provider News
NDRC Launches Price Cut on Respiratory,
Analgesic and Certain Specialty Drugs
SFDA Reveals Plan for Drug Regulation
Reform in 2013
SFDA Seeks Comments on New Policy
for Drug Evaluation, Approval and
Innovation
New Edition of National Essential Drug
List Not Ready for Release Yet
What Does the Year of Black
Water Snake Hold for China
Healthcare?
Annual review and outlook of China's
pharma and healthcare sector by Chief
Editor James Shen.
Shanghai Pharma to Reiterate
Acquisition Drive
SPCL will resume its acquisition drive
this year with focus on pharma cos, instead
of previously on drug distributors.
Kelun Pharma Acquires 12.3%
Stake of Lijun International
Sichuan Kelun will purchase a 12.3%
stake of Lijun Intl Pharma with US$135M
and eventually boost holding to 30%.
Tianjin Kingyork and Innovata
Launches JV for Asthma Drugs
Tianjin Kingyork formed a joint venture
with Innovata HK Ltd. to manufacture
powder inhaler drugs for asthma.
Eli Lilly to Pay US$29M to Settle
SEC Foreign Bribery Case
Eli Lilly agreed to pay US$29M to settle
civil charges of improper payments to
foreign officials to win business in
Russia, Brazil, China and Poland.
MSD's Cervical Cancer Completes
Phase III Trials in China
MSD's HPV vaccine Gardasil for
cervical cancer is awaiting final SFDA
production approval, which is expected
in 2013.
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Industry News
News in Focus
2 0 1 3
F e b r u a r y
I s s u e
C O N T E N T S
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In This Issue
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Editorial
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TM
P20
P20
P2
P21
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The Market
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P23
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Feature Articles
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People in the News
Other News
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P23
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Product and R&D News
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General Health
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Legal/IPR News
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What Does the Year of Black Water
Snake Hold for China Healthcare?
Regulatory News
25
Publisher: James J. Shen
Chief Editor: James J. Shen
Associate Editors: Joanne Xiao-Hua Zhou, Jenny Wang
Correspondents: Chaojuan Jia, Yumei Li
Editorial Assistant: Jessica Shen
Editorial Consultant: David Xue, Luke Treloar
Advisory Board: 13 distinguished industry leaders
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Editorial
WiCON | Pharma China February 2013 Issue 78○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○
What Does the Year of Black Water Snake Hold
for China Healthcare?
Annual review and outlook of China's pharma and healthcare sector
As we approach the Chinese New Year of the Black Water Snake, which falls
on February 10, please bear with my secret fondness of crystal-balling with an
irregular blend of Chinese Zodiac and my own intuition of the Chinese healthcare
trends. It is time to put conventional wisdom aside ... after-all, big-name
economists and Wall Street analysts always do a poor job foretelling what's
ahead, don't they?
My pulsing of the future might be worth some attention, forgive my ballooned
ego, but I did have a reasonably good record predicting China healthcare outlook
in the past few years. My "prophecy" on the Year of Rabbit (2011) suggested
that "the landmines and threats are expected to be all over the place in China
healthcare throughout the supposedly mild Year of Rabbit". I also predicted the
Year of the Water Dragon (2012), which is supposedly an auspicious symbol of
good fortune with a more peaceful disposition from water, to be a year that
promises much but "by no means an easy time to get along, not to mention
growth or new fortunes". Furthermore, I stated that "the Chinese healthcare
space is even more challenging in 2012 with the healthcare reform stalled and
growing uncertainties, the wild government cost containment drive undercutting
quality and supply, and the pharmaceutical industry in total disarray with
disappearing profits." Indeed, the Chinese pharmaceutical industry growth
slowed substantially last year with falling profitability as the sector embraced
three rounds of steep drug price cuts.
What does Year of the Black Water Snake hold for us? The Chinese zodiac
describes the snake as analytical, graceful and having a penchant for the finer
things in life. The element Water is characterized with mobility, dynamism, and
changeability, while Black is the color of deep waters. The Black Water Snake is
supposed to bring unexpected changes, instability, and changeability.
While global economic fragility and political gridlock are likely to be in "deep
waters" for some time, there are some key factors to consider. After a torrid
year for the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which saw the Chinese market lose
nearly 8% of its value and plumb levels last seen since early 2009, there are
signs that the economic hard landing will not be forthcoming.
China's economy ended 2012 on a strong note with two indices showing
continued expansion of the manufacturing sector. The official purchasing
managers' index held above the expansionary 50 level in November and
December, with a brief dip below in August and September before moving higher.
Those latest numbers follow a surge to a 19-month high of the HSBC purchasing
managers' index which showed 51.5 in December from 50.5 a month earlier.
China's foreign trade in 2012, which rose 6.2% year-on-year to US$3.867 trillion,
saw the best performance among major global economies, even though it missed
the 10% percent target set earlier in the year.
Although China is still set for sub-8% GDP growth in 2012, its weakest in more
than a decade, momentum picked up noticeably in the fourth quarter after the
government increased its spending on infrastructure.
Should the Chinese manufacturers continue to gain traction, we may see the
positive effects of this recovery in the world's second-biggest economy on
commodity prices, construction and housing.
In addition, should China's GDP growth remain at about 7.5%, its emerging
middle class will continue to gain momentum, urbanize and expand into an even
stronger consumer force.
Nevertheless, there are questions about whether the rebound would soon run
out of steam. Inflation, subdued for nearly two years, has started to edge higher,
which could prompt an eventual tightening of monetary policy. Worries are also
mounting about a boom in lightly regulated non-bank financing.
3© WiCON International Group LLC | www.pharmachinaonline.com
February 2013 Issue 78WiCON | Pharma China ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○
As I began to write this editorial, words spread that China's
economy probably grew 7.7% in 2012, exceeding the government
target of 7.5%, according to a senior official of National
Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). But China's
annual consumer price inflation quickened to a seven-month high
of 2.5% in December, limiting the room for further policy easing
to support an ongoing economic recovery.
In the China healthcare space, the divine 7.5% GDP growth may
be the defining line for sustaining growth in 2013 at the same
level last year or additional brakes on the already slowing
performance. Without the desired GDP rise, the government will
have little choice but pressing the pedal of cost containment
harder to facilitate the ongoing reform of China's deeply-troubled
healthcare system.
Although many pin high hopes on the new Chinese leadership,
which was installed at the 18th CPC Congress last November
after a good deal of unsettling political infighting, for much-needed
political and social-economic reform to revitalize and reunite the
country, there are emerging signs indicating more emphasis of
the new leadership on fighting corruption and inequality than further
political/economic liberalizations. While former left-wing leader
Bo Xilai was taken down, the new leadership carefully kept the
Chongqing model, which Bo and left-wing supporters created,
intact and in fact may very well go down the same path
themselves at some point, in which case the whole scenario of
China healthcare business may be flipped entirely for foreign
companies.
Even without any major ideological changes, there will be
widening gaps between near term goals of MNC headquarters
and market realities faced by executives in the field, despite
continuously surging Chinese healthcare demands and sustained
business confidence for long term prospects of the sector.
Well, enough about Chinese Zodiac and my self-acclaimed
fortune-telling, let's move onto my regular annual review and
outlook of the Chinese healthcare/pharmaceutical sector.
Slowing pharmaceutical industry growth last year
Although official or third-party data accounting for full 12-month
performance of the Chinese pharmaceutical industry and market
in 2012 has yet to become available, we have gathered sufficient
data covering at least the first 10 months of last year plus
reputable projections which should be sufficient to serve as the
basis for a reliable full year view.
Overall pharma industry and subsector performance
The Chinese pharmaceutical industry output value and revenue
growth slowed to 20.7% and 19.48% in the first ten months of
2012, according to official data from the Southern Medicine
Economic Institute (SMEI) under the SFDA. Although the industry
output value and revenues in the period reached a new high of
CNY 1,459 billion and CNY 1,417.8 billion respectively, the growth
speed was off 8.15 and 10.39 percentage points compared with
the corresponding period in 2011.
Output value growth of API, biological formulation and medical
device subsectors in the first ten months were below overall
pharma industry average, while pharmaceutical formulation,
formulated TCM and crude drug subsectors performed above
average at 24.3%, 21.5% and 27.6%. Similarly, the revenue
growth rates of API, biological formulation and health material
subsectors were below overall pharma industry average in the
period, while pharmaceutical formulation, formulated TCM, crude
drug and medical device subsectors performed above average
at 22.29%, 21.79%, 24.72% and 21.04% respectively.
As of 2011, the cost/revenue ratio of the Chinese pharmaceutical
industry has been rising to above 70%. But the figure for the period
fell slightly year on year by 0.47 percentage point to 71.03%. In
the foreseeable future, however, this ratio is expected to continue
on a benign rising trend, considering factors such as more
stringent environment conservation measures and GMP
renovation requirements.
The sales and marketing expenditures of Chinese pharma sector
also rose from only 16.01% in February to 24.10% in October
last year. The sharp rise of such expenditures was related to
multiple regulatory and cost containment measures introduced
by the government this year, including investigation of drug ex-
manufacturer prices and streamlined invoice practices which
forced many domestic drug manufacturers to switch their sales
model from currently external distributorship to more costly
commission-based agency and internal direct sales approaches.
Profitability of the Chinese pharmaceutical industry was at 17.42%
in the first ten months of 2012, reaching a total of CNY 139.1
billion. In the period, the profit growth rates of API, formulated
TCM, crude drug and biological product subsectors dropped
somewhat year on year, while pharmaceutical formulation, crude
drug and medical device subsectors did better than the previous
year at 21.21%, 25.20% and 25.60% respectively.
SMEI expects the total Chinese pharma industry output value
and revenue to have grown around 20% and 20.2% respectively
for the entire year of 2012, a drop of 7.2 and 6.6 percentage points
year on year, to CNY 1,884.8 billion and CNY 1,824.4 billion. It
forecasts the total Chinese pharma industry net profits to have
grown 17.5%, a rebound of 4.9 percentage points year on year,
to CNY 185.2 billion for the same year.
Given the present market environment, it is generally anticipated
that pharmaceutical industry growth in the near future would no
longer match the high rates seen in 2010 and 2011. Industry profit
growth continued to fall behind output value and revenues,
although the speed of its freefall slowed somewhat compared
with 2011. In the interim, the pharmaceutical formulation,
formulated TCM and crude drug subsectors are holding out well
in terms of output value and revenues, while profit erosion is less
acute in the pharmaceutical formulation and crude drug
subsectors.
Formulated TCMs, which did well in the previous two years,
slowed in revenue & output value growth and saw fast profit
erosion due to intensified competition before the government even
starts to axe such prices. Top ten manufacturers of formulated
TCMs control 25% of the entire market of such medicines in
China, while the share of MNCs in this market is only 1%,
according to IMS Health.
On the front of pharmaceutical distribution sector, overall sales
of seven category pharmaceutical related products were CNY
834.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2012, up 18% year on
year, SMEI data shows. Growth slowed 5 percentage points
compared with that in 2011.
SMEI's 2012 observations are confirmed by other reputable
sources. Business Monitor International's "China Pharmaceuticals
& Healthcare Report Q4 2012" suggests that China will remain
as one of the key emerging pharmaceutical markets as the
country prepares itself for deeper medical reforms and the
expansion of its National Essential Drug List. Key drivers of its
growth include an increasingly ageing but affluent population and
the transition towards a higher burden of non-communicable
disease. The company projects the Chinese pharmaceutical
4 © WiCON International Group LLC | www.pharmachinaonline.com
WiCON | Pharma China February 2013 Issue 78○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○
market to have risen 20.5% in local currency and 21.7% in US
dollar terms to CNY 521 billion (US$81.4 billion) in 2012 from
CNY 432 billion (US$66.7 billion) in 2011.
Hospital drug market
On a positive note, IMS predicts the Chinese hospital market to
have grown 25-27% to more than US$50 billion in 2012,
rebounding from 17.0% in 2011. The second quarter of 2012 saw
China's pharmaceutical market grow by 21.1% as measured by
sales in hospitals of 100 beds or more via the IMS CHPA
syndicated audit) with a sales value of CNY 405 billion (at hospital
purchasing price). The growth slowed down compared with the
rate of 24.1% in the first quarter; however, the first 2 quarters of
2012 still remained growth rates in the mid-20% range, which
represents significantly higher growth rates than what occurred
in Q1 and Q2 of 2011. On a 12 month MAT (Moving Annual Total)
basis, the growth rate of 19.6% indicates a continuous increase
as of Q3 2012, outpacing that of 18.3% in MAT Q2 2011.
Retail pharmacy/OTC market
It was a very eventful year for China's OTC market in 2012,
according to Jowin's James Fan, Nicholas Hall's Network Partner,
with several developments contributing to a slowdown in growth
compared to 2011. For the first time in 10 years, the sales upturn
was under 7%, according to Nicholas Hall's DB6 sales for 12
months to September 2012. Key contributors to this slowdown
are the gelatin capsules scandal, stricter controls on OTCs
containing pseudoephedrine and increased availability of zero-
margin Rx and OTC generics in hospitals. There was no
significant improvement in the regulatory environment during 2012
and, by November, 4,000 ANDAs were waiting to be assessed.
OTC manufacturers have been in a "De-innovation Environment"
since 2004.
For the Chinese retail pharmacy market, growth dipped to only
9.98% in 2011 (CNY 203.8 million) but a rebound with above 10%
growt
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