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首页 对金融衍生工具的风险评估与管理

对金融衍生工具的风险评估与管理.pdf

对金融衍生工具的风险评估与管理

贾然
2013-04-05 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《对金融衍生工具的风险评估与管理pdf》,可适用于行业分析领域

InvestmentManagementandFinancialInnovations,Volume,Issue,RISKASSESSMENTANDMANAGEMENTINFDIsACASESTUDYINTHEBALKANSNicosSykianakisAbstractTheForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)decisionmakingprocesstendstoemphasisestrategicanalysisoverfinancialanalysisTheprioritygiventostrategicanalysisisamajorthemetoemergefromthecasestudyreportedinthispaperSpecifically,theforeigndirectinvestmentdecisionmakingprocessofaGreekcompanyintheBalkansisexaminedThefocusofinterestliesinhowriskwasassessedandmanagedduringtheFDIdecisionprocessExecutivesfoundpoliticalrisktobeanimportantelementtothedecision,butwereunabletoexpressitnumericallyThereasonforthisisthatthefinancialexpressionofriskwasnotseentoofferanadequateunderstandingoftheconceptPreviousfindings,whichsuggestthatriskisanimportantelementofFDIsandisconsideredseparatelyfromthefinancialanalysis,wereendorsedInpractice,riskwasconsideredduringthefirststepsoftheprocessandisexpressedmainlyqualitativelyThecasestudyorganisationreportedheretriedtoreduceriskthroughgradualexpansionstrategiesandbyenrollingtheparticipationoflocalpartnersandventurecapitalinvestorsRiskassessmentandmanagementarenotstudiedseparately,butastwointerrelatedtasksThesefindingssuggestthatthefocusforcompaniesundertakingFDIsmaybemoreonmanagingriskthanattemptingtomakeasophisticatedcalculationofriskforinclusioninfinancialappraisalsofFDIprojectsKeywords:ForeignDirectInvestments,Risk,CaseStudy,BalkansJELClassification:F,GIIntroductionCapitalinvestmentsintherealworldarenotriskfreethereforeappraisingtechniqueshavetotakeriskintoconsiderationInDCFmethodsthediscountrateshouldbeadjustedforrisk,reducingthepresentvalueoffuturecashflowsfromriskyprojects(BrealeyMyers,)Otherpossiblemethodsforassessingriskycapitalinvestmentsare,simulation,sensitivityanalysisandgametheory(Northcott,)SurveysoflargeUSandUKfirmshaveobservedthattheuseofmoresophisticatedtechniquesandformalisedroutinesininvestmentpracticeshasconsiderablyincreasedinthelastdecade,butawidevarietyofmethodsandapproachesisbeingused(PikeWolfe,Marshetal,Klammeretal,Farragheretal,ArnoldHatzopoulos,)Theuseofformalriskanalysishasbeenincreasedduetothechangingenvironmentwithinwhichcompaniesareforcedtomakecapitalexpendituredecisions(Klammeretal,)Still,quantitativemethodsfordealingwithuncertaintyareofteninadequatetoexpresstheproblemofrisk(Pinches,)Inrealitymanycompaniesrelymoreonqualitativeexpressionsofrisk,orapplythepaybackmethodinordertotackleit(Farragheretal,)Itwasfoundthatriskassessmenttakesplaceduringtheinitialphaseofidentificationofaninvestmentprojectwheresomeformofearlyscreeningoccurs,actingasapreevaluationstageofvariousideasbasedonelementarydata(King,Farragheretal,)Thismeansthatunlikethetheory’ssuggestions,riskassessmentisratherdealtseparatelyfromthesubsequentdetailedfinancialanalysisThedifficultyofconceivingtheconceptofuncertaintyagainillustratestheshortcomingsoftraditionalcapitalinvestmenttheoryThedegreeofuncertaintyisaffectedbyenvironmentalandorganisationalfactorssuchasthenatureofthebusinessandoftheproject,aswellasthepersonalcharacteristicsofthedecisionmakerThesubjectivityofhowmethodsareapplieddoesnotjustifyexpressedoptimism(PikeWolfe,)aboutareductioninthegapbetweentheoryandpracticePiraeusTechnologicalEducationInstitute,Greece©NicosSykianakis,InvestmentManagementandFinancialInnovations,Volume,Issue,ItisreasonabletosuggestthattheseremarksontheuseofriskanalysisshouldcharacteriseforeigndirectinvestmentdecisionsaswellForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)hasdifferencesfrom,aswellassimilaritiesto,investinginahomecountryUndertheFDIprocessmoreintercountryfactorshavetobetakenintoconsideration,whichmeansthatthedecisionmakingmaybeamorecomplexactivity(Aharoni,)Inadditiontotheusualbusinessandfinancialriskcharacterisingacapitalinvestmentproject,investingabroadentailsotherspecificrisksrelatedtothetargetedcountry(politicalorcountryrisk)andtheinternationaleconomicenvironmentTheinformationavailabletothefirmislimitedandoftenfailstocaptureallthevariablesintheforeigninvestmentprocessOntheotherhand,somestudieshavepointedoutthehighdegreeofsimilaritybetweenthetwoprocesses(RobbinsStobaugh,)Thedifferencesmaylieintheimportanceofsomefactorsconsideredintheprocess,ratherthantheprocessitself(PikeDobbins,)IthasbeensuggestedthattheFDIprocessislesssophisticatedthanthedomesticequivalent(Piper,)becausetheFDIprocessemphasisesstrategicanalysisoverfinancialanalysisTheFDIdecisionprocessisthereforelesslikelytofollowthenormativemodelofdecisionmaking(Kelly,)Itisnotbasedoneconomiccriteriaonly,butissignificantlyinfluencedbybehaviouralfactors(egperceptions,needs,andgoals)Thispaperemphasisestheissueofrisk,whichisamajorissueintheprocessSpecifically,thewayforeignriskismeasured,assessedandfinallytackledwillbediscussedRiskassessmentandmanagementisanintegralpartoftheFDIdecisionprocessSinceitissuggestedthatriskisanimportantelementoftheforeignexpansionstrategy,thispaperadoptstheadaptiveviewofstrategy(Mintzberg,,Pennings,)inordertoshowthatintheFDIprocessriskassessmentandriskmanagementshouldnotbeseenindependentlyOnthecontrary,riskassessmentaffectsriskmanagementandviceversaTheresearchapproachselectedisthecasestudymethodthatallowstheindepthexaminationofhowandwhycapitalinvestmentpracticeevolves(AbdelKaderDugdale,)Specifically,theFDIdecisionmakingprocessofaGreekindustrialfirmthatchosetoinvestintheBalkansduringtheswasstudiedIIEmpiricalfindingsontheinternationalCapitalInvestmentprocessUntilrecently,theliteratureonFDIreturnandriskhasbeenpredominatelytheoreticalandinthefinancedomain,lackingempiricalfindingsandneglectingtheorganisationalcontextinwhichfinancialtechniquesareused(Wilson,)SomestudieshavetakenplacemainlyintheUSwiththeuseofquestionnairesforcollectingdataThefirstmajorstudyofFDIs(StonehillNathanson,)foundthatthelargertheprojectis,themoreimportantstrategywasinthedecisionprocessandconsequentlythelessimportantthefinancialanalysisbecameDaniels()foundthatmainlymarketevaluationcriteria,suchasmarketpotentialandROI,wereappliedinFDIprojectsSimilarly,inTaiwaneseFDIsinChina,themostusedfinancialmethodwasreturnonsalesandpoliticalriskanalysiswasapplied(WeiChristodoulou,)Usuallythedecisioniseithertogoornotgotoaforeigncountry(Daniels,)ProjectswererarelyfoundtoberankedbasedonfinancialcriteriaBakerandBeardsley()foundalimitedunderstandingoftheconceptsofriskandreturn,whichaffectedtheuseoftherelevanttechniquesinFDIdecisionmakingOblackandHelm()notedthesteadilyincreasinguseofDCFtechniques,butstillriskwasnotexpressedthroughthesecalculationsThefailureofcurrenttheoreticalmodelstoincorporaterisksufficientlywasstatedbyBavish()aswellFinally,KellyPhilippatos()haveshownthatriskishandledinasubjectivewayTheconclusioningeneralisthatthereisatrendtowardstheuseofmoresophisticatedtechniques(KimCrick,)especiallyinthebiggerfirms(StanleyBlock,)Still,noadequateexplanationsaregivenconcerningtheconceptualframeworkofriskandreturnandthewaytheyareconsideredinanorganisationaldecisionmakingprocessWidediscrepanciesappeartoexistbetweentheactualuseoftechniquesandwhatcapitalinvestmenttheorysuggests(Mills,)Unfortunatelyquestionnairesfailtoshowhoworwhythevarioustechniquesareusedandthuscannotofferindepthinformationaboutthedecisionmakingprocess,sinceitisclearthatcomplexorganisationalfactorsmayaffecttheuseoffinancialtechniquesappliedtoinvestmentdecisionmakingCasestudiestrytorelatethefinancialtechniquesappliedwithintheorganisationalcontextinwhichthedecisionprocesswastakingplaceMarketandstrategicconsiderationsInvestmentManagementandFinancialInnovations,Volume,Issue,prevailedindecisionsregardingforeignexpansionfollowedbythegoalofriskdiversificationTheseconsiderationsareexaminedduringtheearlystagesofidentificationandscreening,whichwilldeterminethefinaloutcomeoftheforeigninvestment(King,Wilson,)Duringthesestages,crucialinformationabouttheinvestmentiscollectedandgoalsaresetRisk,beinganimportantelementofFDIsisconsideredseparatelyfromthefinancialanalysis,duringthefirststepsoftheprocessandisexpressedmainlyqualitatively(Wilson,)PoliticalriskwasusuallyinterpretedsubjectivelyratherthanincludedincashflowadjustmentsExecutivesfoundpoliticalrisktobeanimportantelementtothedecision,butwereunabletoexpressitnumerically(Wilson,)ManagersarenotalwaysfamiliarwiththeuseofsophisticatedtechniquessothereisapreferencetoseeriskandreturnastwoseparateconceptsbecauseoftheinabilitytofullyexpressriskthroughtheuseofquantitativeanalysistechniquesInpracticeitisobservedthatmanagersapplydescriptiveandqualitativemethods,aswellasdrawingontheirpersonalnetworkofinformation,foranticipatingriskwhenmakinginvestmentdecisions(PrakashSethiLuther,)ThefocusincompaniesundertakingFDIsappearstobemoreonmanagingriskthantryingtomakeasophisticatedcalculationofrisk(Wilson,)Mostmodelsofstrategicinvestmentsdecisionmaking(Buckley,)suggestthatriskassessmenttakesplaceduringthestrategyformation,whileriskmanagementconcernstheimplementationoftheinvestmentdecisionInstudyingtheprocessofmakingstrategicinvestmentsdecisions,suchasFDIs,the“implicit”oradaptiveviewofstrategy(Pennings,)seemsmostrelevant(Sykianakis,SykianakisBellas,)Theadaptiveviewsuggeststhatstrategyisformedincrementally,asastreamofactionsdecisionsrespondingtoperceivedchangesinthecompany’senvironment(Mintzberg,)Byadoptingtheadaptivemodeofstrategyinsteadoftheplannedonethedichotomybetweenformulationandimplementationbecomesobsolete“Strategyformationthenbecomesalearningprocess,wherebysocalledimplementationfeedsbacktoformulationandintentionsgetmodifiedenroute,resultinginanemergentstrategy”(Mintzberg,,p)ApplyingthisviewinstudyFDIrisk,itcouldbesaidthatriskassessmentshapesriskmanagement,butalsomanagingwithriskreformstheunderstandingandtheconceptionofriskAlso,itdeterminestheattitudetowardsriskinthefutureIIIMethodologyViewingtheFDIdecisionprocessasasocialpractice,theresearchmethodtobeusedisthecasestudyapproachsinceitprovidesanindepthanalysisoftheinvestingcompanyandallowstheresearchertheopportunitytostudyindetailorganisationalpracticesandthedecisionmakingprocessCasestudieshavealreadybeingusedinthedomainofmanagementaccounting,providingusefulexplanationsaboutpractice(seeforexample:HirstBaxter,JonesDugdale,Scapens,Larimo,MillerO’Leary,)ThecasestudyapproachusedforthisresearchismainlydescriptiveThecurrentstudyaimedatdescribingthedecisionmakingprocess(referringparticularlytoriskassessmentandmanagement)intheforeigndirectinvestmentactivityofaGreekcompanyinrelationtothecapitalinvestmentliterature,aswellasdepictingtheappliedaccountingpracticesNormativecapitalinvestmentdecisionmakingtheoryisarelativelywelldevelopedareaHowever,casestudiesinthisareacouldofferknowledgeaboutpracticeandhelptoshapesomepartsofthetheorySinceFDIdecisionmakinginthecontextoftheBalkanshasnotyetbeenexplored,acriticalcaseisrequiredtoprovidesuchknowledgeItissuggestedthat‘critical’caseswithexpectedrichdatashouldbepreferred(Pettigrew,)Theselectedcaseisabigcompany,amongthefewGreekcompaniesthathaveasubstantialpresenceintheBalkansItsexperienceprovidesausefulsubjectofstudysincethecompanyhasundertakensubstantialinvestmentprojectsabroadthatallowtheresearchertoobservetheevolutionoftheFDIprocessundervariousconditionsThecasestudycompany,DelphiisaleaderintheGreekicecreammarketThecompany’sfirstinvestmentabroad,inBulgaria,wasreadyinSubsequentinvestmentprojectsinRomaniaandYugoslaviawerecompletedduringlatesThesethreemainFDIprojectsformthemainfocusforthisstudyMultiplewayswereappliedforcollectingevidenceDuringthecasestudythirtyseven()openendedinterviewswereperformedduringthethreeresearchvisitstotheresearchsiteAnotherimportantsourceofevidencewasdocumentsandarchivalanalysisTheInvestmentManagementandFinancialInnovations,Volume,Issue,advantagesofdocumentationareitsreadyavailabilityandthefactthatitrecordstherealtimeevents,whileinterviewsmaybeflawedbytimeandsubjectiveperceptionsItsdisadvantagesincludeadegreeofirretrievabilityorbias,anditsinabilitytogiveafullaccountofeventsdescribed(Yin,)Documentsprovide‘facts’(Pettigrew,),butontheotherhanditisrarethatdecisionmakingcanbefullydepictedonpaper(MintzbergWaters,)Toachieveconstructvalidity(Yin,)inthisstudy,multiplesourcesofevidence(triangulation)wereusedduringdatacollectionAlso,multipleinterviewingaboutthesamesubjectwasusedasawayofovercominganysinglerespondent’sbiasInternalvaliditywasachievedwiththeuseoftheoryandexistingliteraturetoexplainpatternsfromthecasestudyIVEasternEurope:EconomiesinTransitionTheEasternEuropeancountrieshavebeen,sincetheearlys,inastateoftransition,movingfromacentrallyprogrammedeconomytowardsanopenmarketeconomy(Paliwoda,Nsouli,)Thistransitiongavetheopportunitytowesterncompaniestoentergrowingmarketswithunsatisfieddemand,inordertoreduceproductioncosts,andbuildstrongpositioninmarketswithlowcompetitionThoughEasternEuropeoffersmanyattractionstoforeigninvestors,stillthepotentialinvestormayfacesomedisadvantagesandrisks(Paliwoda,Nsouli,)GreekfirmsduringthesconsideredexpansiontotheBalkansasawaytotheirfurtherdevelopment(Labrianidis,)TheBalkansseemmuchlessappealingandmoreriskycomparedtothecentraleasternEuropeanmarkets,butforcertainreasonssuchaspastexperience,geographicalandculturalproximity,andtheexistenceofmillionpotentialconsumers,Greekcompanieswerewillingtoinvestthere(Labrianidis,,Hope,)ThoughLabrianidis()presentsagoodaccountoftheexperienceofGreekFDIsinEasternEurope,hedoesnotexaminetheseFDIsatamicrolevelThepresentstudyaimstoexaminetheFDIdecisionmakingprocess,addressinginparticulartheissuesofriskassessmentandriskmanagement,byusingacasestudyofalargeGreekdairycompanyduringthelasttenyearsVRiskanalysisintheDecisionMakingProcessMintzbergetal()viewedanydecisionmakingprocessinthreemajorphases:identificationofanidea,itsdevelopment,andselectionthatincludestheauthorisationgivenforthatideaUnlikeotherdecisionmakingmodels,Mintzbergetaldonotimplythatanydecisionprocessisalinearone,butratheracyclicaloneThisapproachhasbeenusedamongothersinexplainingthecapitalinvestmentdecisionprocess(Pinches,Larimo,Sykianakis,)Thefirststageoftheinvestmentdecisionprocessistheidentificationoftheinvestmentopportunity(triggering),duringwhichariskprofilefortheinvestmentisformed(King,)InDelphi’sexperience,theFDIidentificationstageconcernsmainlymacroelementsintheanalysisthathavetodofirstwithpoliticalriskandthenwiththecountry’soveralldemandfortheproduct,asdeterminedfromthemarketsizeandthenationalincomeAlsoatthatstage,thecompanymakesthefirstcontactswithpartnersoragentsfromabroadThethenjuniorbusinessanalyst(JBA)comments:“…TheparentcompanyreceivesmanyproposalsforpartnershipfromabroadHavinglocalconnectionsisvitalforaforeignmultinationalcompanyinordertosurviveinahostileandriskyenvironmentandcopewithredtapeandillegitimatetrading”Thisphaseofinvestigationanddatacollectionisperhapsthemostimportantstageofthisdecisionprocessbecausethisinformationiskeytothedecision(King,)Informationabouttheeconomic,politicalandmarketenvironment,aswellasprospectivepartnerships,isimportantinordertoexaminewhetheraprojectfitsthecorporatestrategyforexpansionandtoestimatefuturedemandforthecompany’sproductsAtthisphaseriskassessmentandmanagementaretakingplacesimultaneouslyRiskanalysisisanimportantelementinmakinganystrategicinvestmentdecisionPoliticalriskisakeydeterminantofundertakinganyFDIinvestment,andforthatreason,itisoftenexaminedseparatelyandbeforethefinancialanalysistakesplace(Wilson,)RiskisoftenInvestmentManagementandFinancialInnovations,Volume,Issue,expressedqualitatively(Farragheretal,),perceivedsubjectively(PrakashSethiLuther,)andconsideredattheidentificationorearlydevelopmentphaseandnotattheselectionstageasthenormativecapitalinvestmenttheoryimpliesInDelphi,informationgainedduringscreeningandinvestigationwascrucialinordertodecidewhethertheprojectwouldcontinueCountryrisk(politicalandeconomic)wasamajorelementofFDIdecisionmaking,particularlyinsoutheasternEuropeancountrieswherepooreconomicconditions,politicaltensionsandinstabilityhadresultedfromthetransitionfromsocialisttoopenmarketeconomicsystemThesemadeinvestinginproductionfarmoreriskysince,intheeventofanopenpoliticalconflictoraneconomiccrisisandclosureofthecompany,agreatpartofthefixedassetscouldnotbeusedelsewhereDelphiassessedandreportedqualitativelypoliticalriskinitsbusines

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对金融衍生工具的风险评估与管理

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