房地产拐点已到 李稻葵说明原因

房地产拐点已到 李稻葵说明原因 阳刚观察:房地产拐点已到 李稻葵说明原因 近期，房地产市场走弱，一些城市开始对此前的房地产调控政策进行调整。10日，一度传出作为省会城市的沈阳全面放开限购的消息，更引发外界关于相当部分地方政府将接触限购的猜想。中国房地产市场现状到底如何,限购政策是否到了调整的节点。今天我们推荐清华大学教授李稻葵在本月《新财富》杂志上所发的评论，他认为中国房地产市场拐点已到，除了一线城市北上广深，其他城市均应解除限购。李稻葵是接近官方的学者，曾多次参加温家宝、李克强主持的经济形势座谈会，他的看法可以作为判断官方政策走向的一个参考。 清华大学丨李稻葵 最近半年以来，中国房地产市场出现了比较明显的变化，许多地区无论新房还是二手房的成交量都显著下降，房价也呈不同程度的增速放缓甚至下滑态势。在这种情势下，过去3年来在全国70多个城市实行的房地产限购政策是否应该退出引起广泛的议论，也有消息说住建部正在考虑允许各地方政府放开其限购政策。那么，房地产限购政策该不该放开呢, 答这个问题，首先必须对当前中国房地产市场的总体形势做出一个基本的判断，然后分析其下一阶段的走势，才能得出一个比较科学合理的结论。 【1】 房地产市场拐点已到 当前中国房地产市场的格局已经转变，通俗来讲就是，其拐点已经来到。为什么这么讲,因为这一市场的主基调已经由过去的疯狂上涨转变为温和上涨乃至于调整。支持这一判断的有三大基本因素。 implementation model. Pay special attention to prevent floating style, do something superficial, cosmetic, overcome the love of work, short of a name, one of the benefits of bad ideas. To strengthen the sense of dedication. Office in the work of the Government "nerve centre", task, and burden, busy with work, hard, tough and sometimes thankless. Come into the Office the door, will not name, not for profit, unsung hero willing; to stand up to all kinds of misunderstandings, disappointments and setbacks, inclusive of ups and downs; "any hard labor, difficult, pick is hard to pick of Dan" the spirit of love and dedication, and hard work. Second, capacity-building, top-notch performance. Office of theWork lies in the people. Government offices at all levels must follow the 16 session of the plenum on strengthening the ruling ability construction of the party in order to improve the professional quality as the core, to strengthen capacity-building, picked up a pen to write, pen said, when anything can be done. To enhance the research capacity. Neither leaders nor the General staff, will continue to face the masses, face reality and society, doing the research work. Conditions permitting, are often grassroots, institutionalized, and perseverance. Investigation depth must not be superficial, also must have the breadth must not be biased. Through research, formed a quality, thoughtful, valuable research reports, improving the ability to analyze and solve practical 第一个因素是金融市场的大格局已经改变。今天的金融市场，由于金融改革启动等因素的影响，已经出现了对储户比较有利的局面。与过去银行存款只能获得2%-3%的年利率相比，今天收益率在5%以上的理财产品层出不穷，明显高过2.5%左右的通胀率，也高于2%-3%的租金回报率。持有现金所获得的回报大大提高，而且风险较低，已经使得不少投资者的偏好发生了变化，由过去的买房保值，转变为更倾向于持有现金。 第二大因素是城市居民的住房需求已经逐步得到了满足，和以前急需改善住房的情况完全不同。这可以从两组数据加以验证。首先，从中国的人口结构看，建国后出现过三次婴儿潮。第一次是在1952年前后的3年间，平均每年有2000万人口出生。这批人现在已经步入老年，本身很少有新增的住房需求，相反倒是可能有大房换成小房的降级住房需求。第二波婴儿潮出现在上世纪60年代初，1963-1965年间，每年出生的婴儿有3000万人左右。这部分人已经进入50岁的知天命之年，住房需求基本满足，处于稳定状态。第三拨人出生在1978-1980年前后，是第一波婴儿潮人的子女辈，这部分人大多已结婚生子，住房需求基本满足，当然也不乏一部分人仍在寻找更大更好的住房，努力改善小家庭的生活质量。 另一组数据是，中国居民如今的资产结构已经过多地倾向于住房。据初步统计，目前全国的居民资产约为150万亿元，其中100万亿元为住房资产(与此相关的另一数据是，中国的平均住房自有率接近90%);约40万亿元属于居民存款，这部分存款目前能获得比较高的回报;剩下的10万亿元左右则是债券和股票，由于当前证券市场持续低迷，这部分资产的配置比较稳定，不会骤增骤减。根据这一分析，城市居民不大可能在短期内将自己的资产配置到住房资产里去。 第三个支撑城市住房需求不至于大幅度上涨的因素是，目前已经在城市生活却没有获得城市户籍的外来工以及等待进城的农村居民，购买力相对有限。即使按照城市房价为5000-6000元/平方米来估算，一对外来的双职工夫妇买一套80平方米的房子也需要15年左右，相对比较吃力。当然，如果他们在老家的宅基地和建设用地可以转让，则其在城市置业将获得比较有力的财政基础，但是，由于当前政府并不允许宅基地大规模入市，因此，他们在城市买房的动力并不是很implementation model. Pay special attention to prevent floating style, do something superficial, cosmetic, overcome the love of work, short of a name, one of the benefits of bad ideas. To strengthen the sense of dedication. Office in the work of the Government "nerve centre", task, and burden, busy with work, hard, tough and sometimes thankless. Come into the Office the door, will not name, not for profit, unsung hero willing; to stand up to all kinds of misunderstandings, disappointments and setbacks, inclusive of ups and downs; "any hard labor, difficult, pick is hard to pick of Dan" the spirit of love and dedication, and hard work. Second, capacity-building, top-notch performance. Office of theWork lies in the people. Government offices at all levels must follow the 16 session of the plenum on strengthening the ruling ability construction of the party in order to improve the professional quality as the core, to strengthen capacity-building, picked up a pen to write, pen said, when anything can be done. To enhance the research capacity. Neither leaders nor the General staff, will continue to face the masses, face reality and society, doing the research work. Conditions permitting, are often grassroots, institutionalized, and perseverance. Investigation depth must not be superficial, also must have the breadth must not be biased. Through research, formed a quality, thoughtful, valuable research reports, improving the ability to analyze and solve practical 强。 综合以上因素，我们认为，当前房地产市场已经呈现出一个价量放缓的新格局。 【2】 那么，房地产市场会不会出现大规模崩溃的结局呢,这种可能性非常小。 房地产市场大规模崩溃的主要原因必须是有大量的存量房入市，从而对房地产价格构成冲击，而目前这种可能性非常小。 存量房入市无外乎两个原因，一是大量居民由于经济状况发生变化，不足以支撑现有房贷，因此要大规模抛售房子，这是2007、2008年美国的情景。而当今中国百姓购房的杠杆率是很低的，许多家庭是一次付清房款，许多家庭房贷仅占房价的50%，再加上中国人传统上有持有住房的偏好，因此，居民恐慌性抛售住房的可能性比较小。 另一种可能是很多媒体人分析的，在当前房地产登记以及反腐的浪潮下，许多贪腐官员大量抛售住房。我们认为这种可能性也很小，因为大量抛售住房反而会引火烧身，招致有关部门的注意，对于贪腐官员来说，倒不如按兵不动，将房产登记并转移出去。 总的来说，中国房地产市场已经迎来新格局，其基本特点就是交易量增长逐步放缓，很多地区的房价将出现一定的增长放缓或下降。在此要强调的是，这一新格局是多元化的，北上广深等一线城市仍然具有价格上涨的压力，因为这些城市的经济竞争能力和人口聚集能力仍然十分强劲，而且，其生态承载能力已经基本达到极限，不大可能出现房价的大幅、大面积下降。同时，问题的关键是，这implementation model. Pay special attention to prevent floating style, do something superficial, cosmetic, overcome the love of work, short of a name, one of the benefits of bad ideas. To strengthen the sense of dedication. Office in the work of the Government "nerve centre", task, and burden, busy with work, hard, tough and sometimes thankless. Come into the Office the door, will not name, not for profit, unsung hero willing; to stand up to all kinds of misunderstandings, disappointments and setbacks, inclusive of ups and downs; "any hard labor, difficult, pick is hard to pick of Dan" the spirit of love and dedication, and hard work. Second, capacity-building, top-notch performance. Office of theWork lies in the people. Government offices at all levels must follow the 16 session of the plenum on strengthening the ruling ability construction of the party in order to improve the professional quality as the core, to strengthen capacity-building, picked up a pen to write, pen said, when anything can be done. To enhance the research capacity. Neither leaders nor the General staff, will continue to face the masses, face reality and society, doing the research work. Conditions permitting, are often grassroots, institutionalized, and perseverance. Investigation depth must not be superficial, also must have the breadth must not be biased. Through research, formed a quality, thoughtful, valuable research reports, improving the ability to analyze and solve practical 一轮调整不能以过分牺牲交易量为代价，否则，交易量的下降将会导致整个经济活动的放缓，也会给房地产市场的健康发展带来不利影响。 【3】 限购政策应该适时调整 根据以上分析，未来若干年房地产市场发展的新动力将来自两大需求，一是已经进城但没有获得本地户籍的农村人口，以及期待进城的农村人口的住房需求。他们在定居城市的过程中，希望有自己的住房，这部分需求需要一定时间来释放。第二类需求则来自那些已经进城但希望在另外的城市定居或者发展的人。中国新一轮城市化的特点是户籍政策的放松，这必然会导致人口在不同城市间的重新布局。而人口和经济地理的重构，必然会使得一些热点地区出现外来居民住房需求的上涨，而另一些地区的住房需求则会相应下降。这将是中国住房需求未来发展的一大特点。 针对这两大需求，我们可以得出结论，限购政策应该灵活的调整。 具体说来，第一，北上广深等一线城市应该按兵不动。这些城市目前房价上涨的压力仍然存在，人口的聚集能力仍然上涨，如果过快放开限购政策的话，人口将会膨胀，城市规模将会很快超过生态承载能力，房价也会过快地上涨，不利于当地产业的发展。 第二，其他城市应该因地制宜，放开外来户籍人口的购房限制。这实际上是顺应了中国下一轮城市发展的需要。那么，对于本地居民购买第三、四套房的限制是否应该放开呢,笔者认为应该谨慎行事。因为有能力购买多套住房的本地居民往往先知先觉，且资金实力较强，他们的投资行为会带动房价的炒作，从而使外地居民的买房需求难以满足。这将阻碍人口在不同城市间的流动，对于城镇化而言是不利的。 implementation model. Pay special attention to prevent floating style, do something superficial, cosmetic, overcome the love of work, short of a name, one of the benefits of bad ideas. To strengthen the sense of dedication. Office in the work of the Government "nerve centre", task, and burden, busy with work, hard, tough and sometimes thankless. Come into the Office the door, will not name, not for profit, unsung hero willing; to stand up to all kinds of misunderstandings, disappointments and setbacks, inclusive of ups and downs; "any hard labor, difficult, pick is hard to pick of Dan" the spirit of love and dedication, and hard work. Second, capacity-building, top-notch performance. Office of theWork lies in the people. Government offices at all levels must follow the 16 session of the plenum on strengthening the ruling ability construction of the party in order to improve the professional quality as the core, to strengthen capacity-building, picked up a pen to write, pen said, when anything can be done. To enhance the research capacity. Neither leaders nor the General staff, will continue to face the masses, face reality and society, doing the research work. Conditions permitting, are often grassroots, institutionalized, and perseverance. Investigation depth must not be superficial, also must have the breadth must not be biased. Through research, formed a quality, thoughtful, valuable research reports, improving the ability to analyze and solve practical 第三，配套的市场化调控政策应该跟上。在逐步放开房地产限购政策的同时，应该更加强调市场的调节作用，特别是要用好金融杠杆。对于居民首套住房、外地居民购房及本地居民多套房等的贷款政策应该更加明确，房地产登记制度以及房产税应该及时推出。房产税主要是给地方政府创造公共服务的机会，也是本地业主与地方政府良性互动的一个政策。 总之，当前中国房地产市场已经到达拐点，此时应该顺应变化，不失时机地灵活调整限购政策，并不妨先从放开外地居民购房限制开始;与此同时，市场化的调节政策应该实时跟进，从而利用好这一拐点，营造一个房地产市场发展的新格局。 责编:阳刚观察 摘自:《新财富》杂志 implementation model. Pay special attention to prevent floating style, do something superficial, cosmetic, overcome the love of work, short of a name, one of the benefits of bad ideas. To strengthen the sense of dedication. Office in the work of the Government "nerve centre", task, and burden, busy with work, hard, tough and sometimes thankless. Come into the Office the door, will not name, not for profit, unsung hero willing; to stand up to all kinds of misunderstandings, disappointments and setbacks, inclusive of ups and downs; "any hard labor, difficult, pick is hard to pick of Dan" the spirit of love and dedication, and hard work. Second, capacity-building, top-notch performance. Office of theWork lies in the people. Government offices at all levels must follow the 16 session of the plenum on strengthening the ruling ability construction of the party in order to improve the professional quality as the core, to strengthen capacity-building, picked up a pen to write, pen said, when anything can be done. To enhance the research capacity. Neither leaders nor the General staff, will continue to face the masses, face reality and society, doing the research work. Conditions permitting, are often grassroots, institutionalized, and perseverance. Investigation depth must not be superficial, also must have the breadth must not be biased. Through research, formed a quality, thoughtful, valuable research reports, improving the ability to analyze and solve practical