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首页 美国霸权与国际合作 英文清晰剑桥版

美国霸权与国际合作 英文清晰剑桥版.pdf

美国霸权与国际合作 英文清晰剑桥版

外语书籍 2013-03-05 评分 0 浏览量 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《美国霸权与国际合作 英文清晰剑桥版pdf》,可适用于人文社科领域,主题内容包含ThispageintentionallyleftblankForoversixtyyearstheUnitedStateshasbeenthela符等。

ThispageintentionallyleftblankForoversixtyyearstheUnitedStateshasbeenthelargesteconomyandmostpowerfulcountryintheworldHowever,thereisgrowingspeculationthatthiseraofhegemonyisunderthreatasitfaceshugetradedeficits,aweakercurrency,andstretchedmilitaryresourcesAmerica’sGlobalAdvantagearguesthat,despitethesedifficulties,theUSwillmaintainitsprivilegedpositionInthisoriginalandimportantcontributiontoacentralsubjectinInternationalRelations,CarlaNorrlofchallengestheprevailingwisdomthatotherstatesbenefitmorefromUShegemonythantheUnitedStatesitselfByanalysingAmerica’sstructuraladvantagesintrade,money,andsecurity,andthewaysinwhichtheseadvantagesreinforceoneanother,NorrlofshowshowandwhyAmericabenefitsfrombeingthedominantpowerintheworldContrarytopredictionsofAmericandecline,shearguesthatAmericanhegemonywillendurefortheforeseeablefuturecarlanorrlofisanAssociateProfessorintheDepartmentofPoliticalScienceattheUniversityofTorontoAmerica’sGlobalAdvantageAmerica’sGlobalAdvantageUSHegemonyandInternationalCooperationCarlaNorrlofCAMBRIDGEUNIVERSITYPRESSCambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown,Singapore,SãoPaulo,Delhi,Dubai,TokyoCambridgeUniversityPressTheEdinburghBuilding,CambridgeCBRU,UKFirstpublishedinprintformatISBNISBNISBNCarlaNorrlofInformationonthistitle:wwwcambridgeorgThispublicationisincopyrightSubjecttostatutoryexceptionandtotheprovisionofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewrittenpermissionofCambridgeUniversityPressCambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyofurlsforexternalorthirdpartyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication,anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriatePublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyCambridgeUniversityPress,NewYorkwwwcambridgeorgPaperbackeBook(NetLibrary)HardbackTofamilyandfriendsviiContentsListoffigurespageixListoftablesxPrefacexiAcknowledgmentsxiiiIntroductionThepuzzleTheargumentMethodologyandvalueaddedPlanofthebookTheformsandconsequencesofhegemonicleadershipTheformsofhegemonicleadershipTheconsequencesofAmericanhegemonyTheevolutionoftheUnitedStates’hegemonicpositionMeasuringdisproportionalityConclusionCooperationunderhegemonyTheemergenceofinternationalinstitutionsandtheneorealistchallengeSizemattersThepublicgoodsassumptionRevisedsizemodelSystemicstabilityandhegemonicdeclineConclusionInternationaltradecooperationTradetheoriesWhat‘good’isfreetradeContentsviiiThesignificanceoftradedeficitsTherewardofongoingtradedeficitsBuyingpowerasasourceofbargainingpowerHowtheUnitedStatescontrolstheglobalequilibriumthroughthetraderegimeBargainingroundsandministerialmeetingsConclusionInteractiveeffectsbetweenmonetaryandcommercialpowerHowmonetaryprivilegefacilitatescommercialexpansionHowcommercialstrengthreinforcesmonetaryprivilegeConclusionThesecuritycardThesecurity–dollarnexusTheasymmetryinriskpremiumsDefensecommitmentsandhumanitarianinterventionsUnilateralismvsmultilateralism,privatevspublicgoodsConclusionCrediblethreatsandregionalcompetitionGeographicallycoherentregionalisminEastAsiaEuroPowerConclusionConclusionReferencesIndexixFiguresRankingofGNIpercapita,PPPpageProductioncurveforpublicgoodsPublicgoodbenefitsandprovisioncostsBankassetsasshareofGDP,DeleveragingasshareofGDP,Valueadded,netincome,andnumberofAmericanmajorityownedforeignaffiliatesCountryshareoftopfirmsintheworld,Countryshareoftop,firmsintheworld,America’sshareofworldmerchandisetradeAmerica’sshareofworldtradeinservicesAmerica’sshareofworldcapitalflowsandliabilitiesBalanceofincomeandreturndifferentialCapitalandexchangerategainsfortheUnitedStatesSavingsdynamicsChineseyuan,HongKongdollar,andMalaysianringgitperUS$Euro,Japaneseyen,SouthKoreanwon,Taiwanesedollar,andIndonesianrupiahperUS$DollaragainstmajorcurrenciesDollarcycles,–:GcurrencyperUS$Dollarcycles,–CostofwarWorldcapitalmarketsharesxTablesCrosscountrycomparisonofmilitaryexpenditurespageWorldGDPsharesWorldexportsharesWorldimportsharesRivals’shareoftheUnitedStates’capitalmarket(indicators)KeycurrencyfunctionsReturndifferentials,selecteconomiesShareofEastAsiancountries’exportstotheUnitedStatesMajorreserveholdersMajorforeignholdersofTreasurysecuritiesAmericanmilitarysuccessesdefeatsandchangesinfinancialflowsEuroanddollarinvoicinginextraeurozonetradeNoneurozonecountries’invoicingineuros,andNoneurozonecountries’invoicingineuros,Currencyshareofworld(foreignexchange)reservesxiPrefaceWhenIbeganinquiringaboutthedistributionofbenefitsfromtrade,Iwasfirstlookingatcountries’relativecapacityfortradeexpansion,synergiesbetweenimportandexportgrowth,andthedeterminantsofcommercialbargainingpowerAftersometime,Irealizedthatevaluatingcountries’relativepropensityforraisingimportsandexports,andanyadvantagetiedtoit,requiredaparallelassessmentofcountries’abilitytoabsorbforeigninvestmentandtoinvestinothercountriesAnalyzingcommercialgainsallocationmeantgettingtoworkonthepoliticsofinvestmentandmonetaryrelations,andwadingthroughmoredatathananyscholarwithoutaresearchassistantcouldpossiblywishforInthemeantime,therewasrenewedinterestincrossborderfinancialtransactionsintheeconomicsdiscipline,astringofunprecedentedcurrentaccountdeficitsintheUnitedStates,eurosuccess,andChina’sriseOnemomenttherewastalkofAmericaasempire,thenextforecastsofAmericandeclineButjusthowmuchsystemicvariationistherebetweentheaccountofAmericatheindispensablepowerandAmericatheweakThisledmetoconsiderthestructuralfeaturesatthebasisofacountry’srelativestandingintheworldandtherelationshipbetweenthesefeaturesWasthereabargainingadvantageassociatedwithbeingthelargestpowerintheworld,orwasitbettertobeafreeridingsmallerpower,assomanyscholarssurmisedMyresearchnotonlysuggeststhattheUnitedStatesbenefitsfrombeingthemostdominantpowertoday,butthatitwillcontinuetobethegreatestpowerfortheforeseeablefutureNotallgainsarequantifiableinmonetarytermsbutcomeintheformofanunusuallywidepolicyautonomywindow,ie,alongertimehorizonandagreatercapacityforrisktakingBecauseoftheleveragetheUnitedStateshasoverotherstates,ithasconsiderableleewaytopursuepoliciesthatwouldbesuicidalifundertakenbyanyothercountryThisisnottosaythattheUnitedStatesisaboveallconstraintorinvulnerable,butratherthatitisinabetterxiiPrefacepositiontogainfrominternationaleconomicrelationsthanareotherstates–notallofthetime,ofcourse,butmostofthetimeThisclaimwillseemobvioustomanyreadersbutissurprisinglycontroversialintheInternationalRelationsandPoliticalEconomyliterature,whereOlson’spublicgoodsargumenthasbeencompletelyinternalizedandwhereanyfindingthatisnotcounterintuitiveisfrowneduponWhileIunderstandthatAmericandeclineisinevitableinthelongrun,myanalysisaddsacautionarynotetoallthespeculationaboutimminentdecline,whichisbynomeansrestrictedtoourowntimebutgoesbacktothes,andneverquiteseemstomaterializeinthethunderousfashionthatwouldsoundtheendoftheAmericaneraWatchingthefulldreadofthefinancialcrisisplayitselfoutintheUnitedStateswhilewaitingforreaderreportsaddedunwelcomesuspensetothereviewprocessAlthoughclearlythisisnotabookaboutthecreditcrunch,itincludesaspectsofthecrisisandfundamentalsinthebankingsectorrelevanttoassessingAmerica’sclout,itsrelativeposition,andfutureprospectsxiiiAcknowledgmentsInwritingthisbookIhavebenefitedfromtheinsight,kindness,andgenerosityofmanypeopleMygreatestdebtistoJosephCarens,whoreadseveralversionsofthismanuscriptandofferedpiercingcomments,alongwithunfailingfriendshipandsupportThemandeservesamedalforhismentoringandbenevolentengagementWhenfewcouldseewhatIwasupto,JenniferNedelskytookthetimetositdownandtalktomeaboutmyproject,gentlypushingmetoexhumethecoreofmyargumentDavidWelchreadseveralchaptersseveraltimesandofferedhisexpertiseandenthusiasmfromstarttofinishDavidWelchandMelissaWilliamsopenedtheirhomeandmademefeelasgoodasIpossiblycouldwhennothingwasgoingmywayThreedistinguishedIPEscholarsmadeabigdifferenceDuncanSnidalhasofferedadviceandencouragementsinceIdefendedmythesisIncharacteristicgoodspiritedfashion,heprovidedtrenchantcommentsonanearlyversionofthemanuscript,andwelcomedrevisionstohismodelofhegemonicstabilitytheoryEventhoughwehadnevermet,IsentBenjaminCohenapaperthatengagedwithhiswork,andherespondedwithunprecedentedspeed,deliveringdetailedchallengingcommentsWiththesameattentiontospecifics,andtremendouskindness,hethenofferedguidanceonasubsequentpaperLikewise,JosephGriecograciouslyagreedtochairanAPSApanelwhenIcontactedhimoutoftheblueInhissupportive,congenialway,hethenprovidedincisivecommentsonmypaperandgavemeexcellentadviceonhowtoreframeitRobertPahrealsoagreedtoparticipateonthesamepanelHisthoroughcriticismhelpedimprovemypaperandanotheroneaswellOtherparticipantsonthepanel,FrankGrundigandHughWard,alsoofferedinsightfulcommentsandsupportVinodAggarwalgavemeacriticalbutsympatheticreadingofanearlydraftoftheintroductorychapter,whichhelpedmeadvancemyprojectLouisPaulyandStevenBernsteindeliveredthoughtfulcommentsontheintroductorychapteraswellMartinOsbornesharedxivAcknowledgmentshisreflectionsonagametheoreticmodelMarkBrawleygavemeextremelyusefulcommentsonapaperontheIPEofinvestment,andinvitedmetotalkontherivalrybetweenthedollarandtheeuroatMcGillCsabaNikolenyiofferedusefulpointersandagenerousreadingofapaperonAmerica’sexternalliabilitypositionCarolBertautsentmeadataset,andacoauthoredpaper,oncrossbordersecurities,andtookthetimetoansweraseriesofquestionsinveryprecisetermsCedricTillelookedataroughdraftonexternalimbalancesandofferedvaluablefeedbackincludingrecommendationsforfurtherreadingInresponsetoemail,PierreOlivierGourinchastookthetimetoclarifysomeofthecriticismthateconomistsattheFederalReserveBoardofGovernorshadleveledagainsthisworkwithHeleneReyIalsooweaspecialthankstothreepoliticaleconomistsattheGraduateInstituteofInternationalStudies–UrsLuterbacher,CedricDupont,andDavidSylvan–whereIdidmyPhDMysupervisor,UrsLuterbacher,gavemewhatgametheoretictoolsIhave,andtheattentionandspaceIneededtodevelopmyownideasHisviewsonmywork,hisencouragement,andhisfriendshiphavebeeninvaluableCedricDupontshapedmywayofthinkingaboutinternationalinstitutionsandofferedmeanaffiliation,adesk,andmoralsupportatacriticaljunctureofthisbookprojectDavidSylvantaughtmetoquestionassumptionsintheIPEliterature,andgavemeincrediblyusefuladviceontheveryfirstproposalforthisbookprojectSeveralcolleaguesattheUniversityofToronto,inadditiontotheonesalreadymentioned,offeredadviceandencouragementManythanksto:DavidCameron,RanHirschl,MattHoffman,RebeccaKingston,NancyKokaz,NeilNevitte,andGraceSkogstadIwouldalsoliketoacknowledgeRobertVipond,RagnarBuchweitz,JohnMiron,andJohnColeman,forgivingmethetimeandresourcestocompletethisprojectTheeditorsatCambridgeUniversityPresshavebeenterrificJohnHaslamwasquickonthemailandreassuringwhenIwasimpatientforthereviewsEquallyfasttoturnthingsaround,CarrieParkinsonprovidedpatient,gentleremindersforapproachingdeadlines,includingtheonesthatImissedRosinaDiMarzofacilitatedeverystepoftheproductionprocess,andJulietDoyledidagreatjobeditingthetextIamalsoimmeasurablygratefultotheanonymousreviewerswhoofferedilluminatingandconstructivecommentaryxvAcknowledgmentsIwouldalsoliketoofficiallyacknowledgepreviouspublicationsPartsofchaptersandappearedearlier,indifferentform,intheCanadianJournalofPoliticalScience,andpartsofchapterinCooperationConflictFinally,specialthankstomyfamily,EvaCarin,Claes,Sofia,andHåkan,aswellasKarlandothermembersofmyextendedfamilyforloveandsupport,andtoIsabelleandMarwaforfeedbackonthesechaptersandimpeccablefriendshipThisbookisforyouShortoncashbeforehisshipcomesin,AntoniosealsabondwithShylocktosustaintheprofligacyofloyal,dearBassanioCunningly,Shylockextendsthecreditwiththeprovisothat,shouldAntoniofailtohonorthebond,ShylockisentitledtoapoundofAntonio’sfleshPredictably,Antonio’sfortuneisnothomewardboundWithunmitigatedglee,ShylockclaimsthebondButenforcingthebondprovesdifficultTherulesofthegameareinterpretedinsuchawaythatShylockmustforegohisbondunlessheclaimsitinawaywhichspillsnoChristianblood–awaywhichisclearlyimpossibleAllendswellexceptforShylockAntonioisricherbyShylock’smisfortuneandso,indirectly,isBassanio,havingusedtheloantoconquerprincessPortia,whoisasgoodacatchasanyoneeverwasThemainthemesofShakespeare’splay,TheMerchantofVenice,arefamiliarFriendshipjuxtaposedtolove,greedtosacrificeButitisliterallyastoryofdebt,andfigurativelyanaccountofthepossibilityoftakingadvantageofdebtwhenbeingindebtisasfluidanddeceptiveastheSeasofVeniceInsixteenthcenturyVenice,ChristianrulesfavoredChristianborrowersoverJewishlendersShylocktriedtobringthatorderdownbyfundingtheuntenablespendinghabitsofBassanio,whomAntoniofeltobligedtoprotectMuchbywayofcommercialandfinancialinteractionshaschangedinthecourseofhalfamillenniumyettherearestrikingparallelstomulloverThisbookarguesthatAmericanliabilitiesarestrategicbecausetheprevailingorderintrade,money,andsecuritymakesitpossiblefortheAmericanpeople–theBassaniosofthisworld–toenjoyacornucopiaofforeigngoodsAlarmistbellsnotwithstanding,if,byfinancingAmericanconsumption,ChinaisbankingonthedemiseofAmericanhegemony,itisbettingonthesameterribleoddsthatsealedthefateofpoorShylockTheUnitedStateshasbeenthemostpowerfulcountryintheworldformorethansixtyyearsThroughoutthisperiod,ithashadtheIntroductionIntroductionworld’slargesteconomyandtheworld’smostimportantcurrencyFormostofthistime,ithadtheworld’smostpowerfulmilitaryaswell–anditsmilitarysupremacytodayisbeyondquestionWearetrulyinaneraofUShegemony,aunipolarmoment,aPaxAmericana,whichhasenabledAmericanstoenjoythehigheststandardoflivinginhumanhistoryIsthisprivilegedpositionbeingundercutbyserialtradedeficitsThepessimistsaregrowingmorenumerousbythedayTheyseethecountry’sspendthriftwaysasadisasterwaitingtohappenTheywarnthatthecavernousgapinmerchandisetrade,wellabovepercentin,isanominoussignofcompetitiveslippageIn,theliabilitiesacquiredtofinancetheshortfallinexportsreachedanamazingpercentofGDPAfallingdollar,militaryoverstretch,theriseoftheeuro,theriseofChina,andprogressivelydeeperintegrationinEastAsiaareamongthefactorsthatmanybelieveheraldtheimminentdeclineofAmericanhegemonyInmyview,thedoomsayersaremistakenIarguethatAmericanhegemonyisstableandsustainableWhiletheUnitedStatescertainlydoesfaceanumberofchallenges,ananalysisofthelinkagesbetweentrade,money,andsecurityshowsthatAmericanpowerisrobustThisbookisastoryaboutwhyandhowAmericanhegemonyworks,andwhatotherstateswouldhavetodotoemulateor,onothergrounds,thwart,America’spowerbaseAsIwillshow,theUnitedStatesbenefitsfromrunningpersistenttradedeficitsasaresultofitsspecialpositionintheinternationalsystemIwillarguethatanycomparablysituatedcountrywouldchoosetopursuethesamecyclicaldeficitpolicyastheoneencouragedbytheUSgovernmentAseriesofsizeadvantagescutacrosstrade,money,andsecurity:thesizeoftheAmericanmarket,theroleofthedollar,andAmericanmilitarypowerinteracttomakeatradedeficitpolicyrewardingandbuffertheUnitedStatesfromtheextremeconsequencesthatasustaineddeficitpolicywouldotherwisehaveBasedonnewresearchineconomicsonvaluationadjustments(ie,capitalandexchangerategains),anddataanalysisofmyown,thisstudydrawsattentiontotheeconomicadvantagesfortheUnitedStatesofhavingthekeycurrencyInadditiontobenefitsintheformofseignorage,theUnitedStatesgainssubstantiallyfromvaluationadjustments,reinforcingpolicyautonomyandthegainsderivedfromtheasymmetryinthestructureofborrowingandlendingIalsoleanonneweconomicIntroductionresearchonvaluationadjustmentstosupplementtheconventionalviewofwhymilitarypreeminenceisnecessaryforkeycurrencystatusMilitarypowerhasbeenseenasimportantinenforcingdebtrepayments,butthereisclearlyaneedtorethinktheconnectionbetweenreservestatusandmilitarypowerinthepresentsystemiccontextwherethereservecurrencycountryhastheworld’slargestexternalliablitiesWehaveseenerroneouspredictionsofAmericandeclinebeforeInthes,thecombinationofhighinflation,highinterestrates,highunemployment,theVietnamWar,politicalandmilitarychallengesfromChinaandtheSovietUnion,andtheeconomicriseofJapanledtoeerilysimilarforecastsPessimiststhen,astoday,underestimatedthelongevityofAmericanpowerThemainre

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