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首页 (美)康灿雄 中国崛起:东亚的和平、权力与秩序(剑桥大学出版社 2007)

(美)康灿雄 中国崛起:东亚的和平、权力与秩序(剑桥大学出版社 2007).pdf

(美)康灿雄 中国崛起:东亚的和平、权力与秩序(剑桥大学出版社…

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简介:本文档为《(美)康灿雄 中国崛起:东亚的和平、权力与秩序(剑桥大学出版社 2007)pdf》,可适用于人文社科领域

CHINARISING★★★★★CHINARISINGPEACE,POWER,ANDORDER★★★INEASTASIA★★★DAVIDCKANGCOLUMBIAUNIVERSITYPRESS■NEWYORKColumbiaUniversityPressPublishersSinceNewYorkChichester,WestSussexCopyright©ColumbiaUniversityPressAllrightsreservedACaravanbookFormoreinformation,visitwwcaravanbooksorgLibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationDataKang,DavidC(DavidChanoong),–Chinarising:peace,power,andorderinEastAsiaDavidCKangpcmIncludesbibliographicalreferencesandindexISBN(cloth:alkpaper)ISBN(ebook)ChinaForeignrelationsEastAsiaEastAsiaForeignrelationsChinaChinaForeignrelations–EastAsiaPoliticsandgovernmentITitleDSKdcReferencestoInternetWebsites(URLs)wereaccurateatthetimeofwritingNeithertheauthornorColumbiaUniversityPressisresponsibleforURLsthatmayhaveexpiredorchangedsincethemanuscriptwaspreparedColumbiaUniversityPressbooksareprintedonpermanentanddurableacidfreepaperThisbookisprintedonpaperwithrecycledcontentPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericacForMichelle★★★ListofIllustrationsixAcknowledgmentsxiPARTI:THEPUZZLEANDTHEARGUMENTThePuzzleandChina’sAmazingRisePower,Interests,andIdentityinEastAsianInternationalRelations,toDescribingEastAsia:AlignmentStrategiesTowardChinaPARTII:EASTASIARESPONDSTOCHINAChina:Identity,Sovereignty,andTaiwanSouthKorea:EmbracingInterdependenceinSearchofSecuritySoutheastAsia:AccommodatingChina’sRiseJapan:ANormalIdentityPARTIII:EASTASIAANDTHEUNITEDSTATESTheRoleoftheUnitedStatesinEastAsiaConclusionsandImplicationsNotesSelectedBibliographyIndexCONTENTSFIGURESFigureJapaneseandChineseGDP,–FigureComprehensiveIndexofChineseandJapaneseNationalPower,–FigureChineseandIndianExports,–FigureSpectrumofAlignmentStrategiesFigureAlignmentofSelectedEastAsianStatesTowardChinaFigureChineseandJapaneseDefenseSpending,–FigureEastAsianAttitudesTowardChinaandUnitedStatesFigurePerceptionofBilateralRelationshipwithChinaandUnitedStatesFigureAsia’sFuturePowerCenterFigureClosestEconomicPartnerin–YearsFigureSouthKorea’sMajorTradePartners,–FigureASEANTotalTradewithUnitedStatesandChina,–FigureJapaneseTotalTradewithChinaandtheUnitedStates,–TABLESTableEastAsianPoliticalSystems,–TableChineseDataforShipsVisitingJapan,–TableJapaneseSilverExports,–TableEastAsiaandEuropeOvertheLastSixCenturiesTableExchangeofHighLevelMilitaryDelegationsBetweenChinaandVietnam,–TableAmericanandSouthKoreanViewsofthe“WaronTerror”TableStockHoldingsofMajorFirmsinFourASEANNationsbyOwnershipTypeILLUSTRATIONSIbeganthisbookoveradecadeago,promptedbyAaronFriedberg’sfamousarticlesuggestingthatEurope’spastmightbeAsia’sfutureIwonderedwhywewoulduseEurope’spastratherthanAsia’sownpasttoexploreAsia’sfutureHowever,althoughIwasquitewellversedinmodernAsia,IknewverylittleaboutitshistoryAsIresearchedthehistoricalpatternofEastAsianinternationalrelations,themoreIconnectedAsianhistorytoitspresentandfuture,andthemoreintriguedIbecameThisbookisaresultofthatcontinuingprojectAlargenumberofpeoplehavegivengenerouslyoftheirtimeandintellectualenergyovertheyearsasIhaveworkedthroughmyideasMycolleaguesatDartmouthandtheTuckSchoolofBusinesshaveformedauniquelywonderfulcohortTheyaresmart,collegial,andgenerouswiththeirtime,andIfearthatthebalanceoftradehasmesubstantiallyindebttotheirunselfishdiscussionandfeedbackaboutmyownworkBillWohlforth,AlStam,MikeMastanduno,SteveBrooks,BenValentino,DarrylPress,JennyLind,andNedLebowhaveallbeenexceptionallygenerouscolleagueswiththeirconsiderableintellectualfirepowerManyoftheirsuggestionsappearinthisbook,forwhichIthankthemprofuselyandhavetriedtocreditthemasdirectlyaspossibleAsamemberoftheCenterforInternationalBusinessatTuck,IhavehadtheopportunitytointeractwithanextraordinarilywiderangeofbusinessmenandscholarsthroughoutEastAsiainaworkingcapacity,whichprovidesinsightsfarbeyondthosethatcouldbegleanedinashortinterviewInparticularIowethankstoJohnOwensandBobHansen,whohavealwayssupportedmyresearchandunderstoodthatscholarshipisdirectlyintheinterestsoftheTuckSchoolThanksarealsoduetonumerouscolleagueswhohavereadparts(orall!)ofthemanuscriptinvariousversionsPeterKatzensteinhasbeenanexACKNOWLEDGMENTSXII|ACKNOWLEDGMENTStraordinaryintellectualfriendandmentor,aswellasacarefulandthoughtfulcriticVictorCharemainsmyclosestfriendintheprofessionWehavediscussedtheseideasatlengthovertheyears,andwhileIstillhaven’tmanagedtochangehismind,hisfriendshiphasbeeninvaluableandIhavelearnedatremendousamountfromhimBobBullockremainsanextremelyclosefriendandacarefulreader,alwayspushingmetothinkmoreclearlyandrigorouslyOtherswhohaveprovidedintellectualguidanceforthisproject,butwhoshouldsharenoneofthecriticism,includeAngChengGuan,AmitavAcharya,VinodAggarwal,MuthiahAlagappa,MichaelArmacost,ThomasBerger,PaulChamberlain,ThomasChristensen,GangDeng,KentDeng,LeifEricEasley,AaronFriedberg,EllenFrost,AkikoFukushima,EvelynGoh,PeterGries,StephanHaggard,VictoriaHui,MinhuaHwang,JohnIkenberry,IainJohnston,StuartKaufman,ByungkookKim,SunghanKim,AndrewKydd,DavidLake,DeborahLarsen,TaiHwanLee,DavidLeheny,RichardLittle,EvanMedeiros,AliceMiller,EdwardMiller,StevenMiller,DerekMitchell,KathyMoon,GregNoble,RobertRoss,RichardSamuels,LenSchoppa,RandallSchweller,AdamSegal,GiwookShin,DanSneider,JackSnyder,ScottSnyder,YoshihideSoeya,AndrewStigler,ShipingTang,CarlThayer,RonaldToby,ChristopherTwomey,BarbaraWalter,YiweiWang,BrantlyWomack,XinboWu,YushanWu,andYoungkwanYoonAlargenumberofbusinessmenandministryofficialsfromvariousAsiancountrieswerealsoexceptionallygenerouswiththeirtimeandinsightsManyofthemwishtoremainanonymous,andIrefertotheminthetextwithsimply“personalcommunication”VariousversionsoftheargumentwerepresentedatDartmouthCollege,OhioStateUniversity,PrincetonUniversity,StanfordUniversity,theProgramonInternationalSecurityandPoliticsattheUniversityofChicago,ColumbiaUniversity,CornellUniversity,GeorgetownUniversity,theUSAirWarCollege,theInstituteforDefenseandStrategicStudiesatNanyangTechnicalUniversityinSingapore,KeioUniversity,theForeignCorrespondentsClubofJapan,theEastAsiaInstituteinSeoul,SeoulNationalUniversity,theNationalTaiwanUniversity,andNationalSunYatSenUniversityForthreeyearsIhavealsopresentedtheideasinthisbookasaguestlecturerattheAustralianCentreforDefenseandStrategicStudiesattheAustralianDefenseCollegeinCanberra,AustraliaTheAustralianCDSShasseniormilitaryofficersfrommorethantwentyonecountriesintheAsiaPacificRegion,includingtwelvefromEastAsiancountriesOtherversionsoftheargumentwerepresentedattheannualmeetingsoftheAmericanPoliticalScienceAssociation,theInternationalStudiesAssociation,andtheACKNOWLEDGMENTS|XIIIInternationalPoliticalScienceAssociationFinally,IhavealsopresentedversionsofthisargumentatanumberofUSgovernmentagenciesTheideasinthisbookaccumulatedoveryearsofresearchandteachinginEastAsiaIamparticularlygratefultotheKoreaFoundation,whoseexceptionalgenerosityintheformofanAdvancedResearchGrantallowedmethecriticaltimeneededtofinishthismanuscriptTheirsupportofbasicresearchiscentraltothecontinuinggrowthofKoreanstudiesaroundtheworldTheEAIFellowsProgramonPeace,Governance,andDevelopmentinEastAsia,supportedbytheHenryLuceFoundation,hasbeengenerousinitssupportfortravelandresearch,andallowedmetopresentversionsofmyworkaroundEastAsiaTheHanoiSchoolofBusinessinVietnamhostedmonthlongvisitsinandtheAsianInstituteofManagementinthePhilippineshostedmonthlongvisitsin,,andandtheInstituteforDefenseandStrategicStudiesatNanyangTechnologicalUniversityinSingaporehostedmeasavisitingscholarinIsupplementedthesewithnumerousshortervisitstoSingapore,Indonesia,Taiwan,HongKong,Japan,Korea,andChinaFinally,StanfordUniversity’sAPARCCenterprovidedmeasunnyandintellectuallyvibrantvenueinwhichtoworkforayearin–IalsohadveryableresearchassistancefromDeAnnaFernandez,SofiaFaruqi,andJiyoungLeeAllofthemaresuperblyorganized,verysmart,andalwayspleasanttoworkwithAnneRoutonatColumbiaremainsatremendouseditorIworkedwithheronmypreviousbook,andwasmorethanhappytoreturntoColumbiawiththisoneSheisararityamongeditorssmart,engaged,andsupportiveHerattentionandpatiencehavemadethisbookmuchbetterthanitshouldbeCHINARISING★★★★★PARTITHEPUZZLEANDTHEARGUMENTThetemporaryhegemonyofWesternEuropeancivilizationoverAsiahasdistortedourviewofthepastandmadeourinterestonesidedBecausetheworldhasbeendominatedbytheWestforahundredtwentyyearsashortspanoftimeyet,inretrospect,aneternitytheWestcametoconsideritselfasthefocusofworldhistoryandthemeasureofallthingsWFWERTHEIM,“EARLYASIANTRADE:ANAPPRECIATIONOFJCVANLEUR,”FAREASTERNQUARTERLY★★★CHAPTERTHEPUZZLEANDCHINA’SAMAZINGRISETHEPUZZLEIn,ChanHengChee,Singapore’sambassadortotheUnitedStates,gaveaspeechinHouston,Texas,aboutrelationsbetweenChinaandtheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)ShebeganherlargelypositiveassessmentbydiscussingthefifteenthcenturyMingdynasty’speacefulrelationswithSoutheastAsia,noting,“DynasticChina’srelationswithSoutheastAsiaweretoalargeextentbasedon‘softpower’ItwasChina’seconomicpowerandculturalsuperioritythatdrewthesecountriesintoitsorbitandwasthemagnetfortheircultivationofrelations”Sheconcludedherspeechbysaying,“thereisonemessageIwouldliketoleavewithyoutoday:thatthereismuchoptimisminSoutheastAsia”AlthoughSingaporeisoftenviewedcorrectlyasoneoftheclosestalliestheUnitedStateshasinEastAsia,AmbassadorChan’sremarksrevealthecomplexityanddepthofEastAsianstates’relationswithbothChinaandtheUnitedStatesSingapore’ssituationreflectsapatternthathasoccurredthroughoutEastAsiaoverthepastthirtyyearsAsaregion,EastAsiasincehasbeenmorepeacefulandmorestablethanatanytimesincetheOpiumWarsof–Onlytwostates,TaiwanandNorthKorea,fearfortheirsurvivalFurthermore,EastAsianstateshavebecomeincreasinglylegitimateandstabletheyhavestrengthenedregionalmultilateralinstitutionsandtheyhaveincreasedtheirbilateraleconomic,cultural,andpoliticalrelationsDuringthattime,Chinahasrapidlyemergedasamajorregionalpower,averagingoverpercenteconomicgrowthsincetheintroductionofitsmarketreformsinForeignbusinesseshaveflockedtoinvestinChina,whileChineseexportshavebeguntofloodworldmarketsChinaismodernizingitsmilitary,hasjoinednumerousregionalandinternationalinstitutions,andisincreasinglyvisibleininternationalpoliticsAtthesametime,EastAsian|THEPUZZLEANDTHEARGUMENTstateshavemovedtoincreasetheireconomic,diplomatic,andevenmilitaryrelationswithChinaChinaappearstohaveemergedasaregionalpowerwithoutprovokingaregionalbacklashWhyhaveEastAsiancountriesaccommodatedratherthanbalancedChina’srapideconomic,diplomatic,andpoliticalemergenceoverthreedecadesWhyhasEastAsiabecomeincreasinglypeacefulandstableinthattimeThisbookmakestwocentralargumentsFirst,EastAsianstatesarenotbalancingChinatheyareaccommodatingitThiscontradictsmuchconventionalinternationalrelationstheory,whichsaysthattheriseofagreatpowerisdestabilizingSecond,thisaccommodationofChinaisduetoaspecificconstellationofinterestsandbeliefsaparticularmixofidentitiesandtheabsenceoffearIdentitiesarecentraltoexplainingthesourcesbothofstabilityandofpotentialinstabilityinEastAsia,butnottotheexclusionoftherelativecapabilitiesandintereststhattraditionalrealistschampionAccuratelydescribingEastAsiaisacriticalfirststeptowardexplaininghowtheregioncametobeasitisTaiwanistheonlyEastAsianstatethatfearstheChineseuseofforce,andnootherEastAsianstateisarmingitselfagainstChinanorseekingmilitaryallianceswithwhichtocontainChinaAlthoughstatealignmentstrategiesareoftenposedasoppositesmilitarybalancingagainstanadversary,orbandwagoningwiththestrongerpowerinhopesofgainingbenefitsorneutralizingthethreatasastrategy,accommodationliesbetweenthesepolesWhilenotbalancingChina,EastAsianstatesarenotbandwagoningwithitinallareas,either,andhavenointentionofkowtowingEastAsianstatesalsovaryintheirstrategiestowardChinaJapanisfarmoreskepticalofChinesepowerthanisVietnam,forexampleTheabsenceofbalancingagainstChinaisrootedininterestsaswellasidentitiesIntermsofinterests,risingpowerspresentopportunitiesaswellasthreats,andtheChineseeconomicopportunityandmilitarythreatforitsregionalneighborsarebothpotentiallyhugeYetEastAsianstatesseesubstantiallymoreopportunitythandangerinChina’sriseFurthermore,theEastAsianstatespreferChinatobestrongratherthanweakbecauseastrongChinastabilizestheregionwhileaweakChinatemptsotherstatestotrytocontroltheregionIdentityisalsocentralinframinghowregionalstatesinterpretChina’sriseEastAsianstatesviewChina’sreemergenceasthegravitationalcenterofEastAsiaasnaturalChinahasalonghistoryofbeingthedominantstateinEastAsia,andalthoughithasnotalwayshadwarmrelationswithitsneighbors,ithasaworldviewinwhichitcanbethemostpowerfulcountryinitsregionandyethavestablerelationswithotherstatesinitThustoEastAsianobserversandotherstates,thelikelihoodthatChinawillseekterritorialexpansionoruseforceagainstthemseemslowMostseeChinaasdesiringstabilityandpeacefulrelationswithitsneighborsAlthoughthoseEastAsianneighborsshareacommonlackoffearregardingChina,eachrelationshipwithChinaisdistinctTaiwanisagoodexampleFewclaimthatChinathreatensTaiwanaspartofanexpansioniststrategy,orthatcontrolofTaiwanwouldtipthebalanceofpowerintheregionTaiwanisnotanissuebecauseofpowerpoliticsit’sanissuebecauseofcompetingconceptionsofwhetherTaiwanisanindependent,sovereignnationstate,orwhetheritisapartofChinaForChina,thequestionisnationbuilding,notexpansionThusTaiwanisnotanexceptiontothegeneraltrendinEastAsiaitiscategoricallydifferentfromotherstatesWhileformallytheUnitedStatesandmostothernationsagreewithChina’sclaim,privatelymanyviewTaiwanas“obviously”anindependentnationstate,withitsowngovernment,currency,economicsystem,andcultureAsaresultofthisdisagreementoverTaiwan’sidentity,Taiwan’sstatusremainsanissueininternationalpoliticsRegardingtherestofEastAsia,ChinaclaimsandEastAsianstatesincreasinglybelievethatitscontinuedeconomicgrowthanddomesticstabilityarepredicatedondeepintegrationwith,andopennessto,theregionalandinternationaleconomiesThisgrandstrategyisoftencalled“peacefulrise”Indeed,theChineseCommunistParty’smainclaimtolegitimacyisitseconomicrecordChinarealizesexplicitlythatitwouldgainverylittlefromstartingconflictswithitsneighborsbuthasmuchtogainfromwarmertiesAsthebestwaytoadvanceitsinterests,“peacefulrise”representsapragmaticchoiceButdeterminingwhetherthisstrategyismerelytacticalorwhetheritrepresentsthetruenatureofChinainvolvesanassessmentofitsidentityInthisrespect,then,China’sconcernforsovereigntyandnationbuildingisarguablymoreimportanttoitsidentitythanarenationalisticmemoriesofa“centuryofshame”TheEastAsianstatestendtoshareaviewofChinathatismorebenignthanconventionalinternationalrelationstheoriesmightpredictSouthKorea’sforeignpolicybehaviorisperhapsthemostvividexampleofthisAlthoughChinacouldthreatenSouthKoreamilitarily,andNorthKoreaactuallydoesthreatenSouthKorea,capitalistanddemocraticSouthKoreaitselfseemseagertoembracecommunistandauthoritarianChinaandNorthKoreaFurthermore,SouthKoreansappeartofeelmorethreatenedbypotentialJapanesemilitarizationthantheydobyactualChinesemilitarypowerThishascausedconsternationandevenangerinWashingtonbecauseSouthKoreaappearswillingtopursuethisstrategytothedetrimentofrelationswithitslongtimedemocraticallyandprotector,theUnitedStatesCHINA’SAMAZINGRISE|MuchofSouthKorea’sapproachtoregionalrelationsisbasedonitsinterestinavoidingacostlywaroracollapseoftheNorthKoreanregime,whichwoulddirectlyharmSouthKoreaHowever,thekeytoexplainingSouthKorea’sseeminglyperplexingforeignpolicyliesinKoreannationalidentityFormanyKoreans,theirsinglemostimportantforeignpolicypriorityisunificationofthedividedpeninsula,andthishasledtheSouthtoprioritizeeconomicengagementwithNorthKoreaandtheintegrationofthepeninsulaasmoreimportantthanpressuringtheNorthoveritsnuclearweaponsandmissileprogramsIndeed,bothChinaandSouthKoreaagreethatengagementistheproperstrategytofollowwithNorthKorea,incontrasttotheUnitedStates,whichintheearlytwentyfirstcenturyfocusedoneliminatingNorthKorea’snuclearandmissileprogramsthroughastrategyofcoercionandisolationFurthermore,KoreahashadalonghistoryofcloseandstablerelationswithChinaand,incontrast,hasnotfullyresolveditsdifficultrelationshipwithJapanAlthoughSouthKoreahasnointentionofreturningtothesubservient

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(美)康灿雄 中国崛起:东亚的和平、权力与秩序(剑桥大学出版社 2007)

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