中信证券-120702-政经择要

䈧࣑ᗵ䰵䈫↓᮷ѻਾⲴݽ䍓ᶑⅮ䜘࠶� � ѣؗ䇷࡮⹊ガ䜞�ᇅ㿸㓺� 䈮ᔰ㣩� ⭥䈍˖010-60838756 䛞Ԧ˖zhujf@citics.com ᢗъ䇱Җ㕆ਧ˖S1010510120003 ᆏどᆎ� ⭥䈍˖010-60838015 䛞Ԧ˖sunwc@citics.com ᢗъ䇱Җ㕆ਧ˖S1010510120052 㪙࡟� ⭥䈍˖010-60838405 䛞Ԧ˖dongli@citics.com ᢗъ䇱Җ㕆ਧ˖S1010511080001 ࡎ䵌᷍�� ⭥䈍˖010-60838023 䛞Ԧ˖liull@citics.com ᢗъ䇱Җ㕆ਧ˖S1010511080002 ੪⦿㄁� ⭥䈍˖010-60838230 䛞Ԧ˖wuyl@citics.com ᢗъ䇱Җ㕆ਧ˖S1010511080003 ᨆ⽰φ·ᆇॸᅖྑޚৃ·ᄻߜ֟ϣԅᄷྑჿ࠼໰๯ރ౨ᄻ֟ಓԅᄷྑಹົēࡃைڑᅟd� 㓿⍾ᰕশ˄ഭ޵˅� ઞж δδ7 ᴾᴾ 2ᰛᰛε ઞӂ δδ7 ᴾᴾ 3ᰛᰛε ઞп δδ7 ᴾᴾ 4ᰛᰛε ઞ഑ δδ7 ᴾᴾ 5ᰛᰛε ઞӊ δδ7 ᴾᴾ 6ᰛᰛε ઞޣ δδ7 ᴾᴾ 7ᰛᰛε ઞᰛ δδ7 ᴾᴾ 8ᰛᰛε --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖᭯ᓌ㖁ㄉˈഭᇦ㔏䇑ተˈ⎧ޣᙫ㖢ˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ⹄ウ䜘 㓿⍾ᰕশ˄ഭ䱵˅�ᅟġࣳۜઝนྡྷᄡ၇୙�� ઞж δδ7 ᴾᴾ 2ᰛᰛε ઞӂ δδ7 ᴾᴾ 3ᰛᰛε ઞп δδ7 ᴾᴾ 4ᰛᰛε ઞ഑ δδ7 ᴾᴾ 5ᰛᰛε ઞӊ δδ7 ᴾᴾ 6ᰛᰛε ઞޣ δδ7 ᴾᴾ 7ᰛᰛε ઞᰛ δδ7 ᴾᴾ 8ᰛᰛε ⅗ݳ४˖ ᗧഭ 6 ᴸ Markit ࡦ 䙐 ъ PMI ˄44.7˅˗ ⅗ ݳ ४ 6 ᴸ Markit ࡦ 䙐 ъ PMI˄44.8˅˗ ⅗ݳ४ 5 ᴸཡъ ⦷˄11.1%˅˗ 㤡ഭ˖ 6ᴸ Halifaxᡯԧ ᤷᮠ˗ 6 ᴸ Markit ࡦ䙐 ъ PMI˄46.5˅˗ ᰕᵜ˖ 6ᴸ⊭䖖䬰୞˗ 㖾ഭ˖ 6 ᴸࡦ䙐ъ PMI ˄52.0˅˗ 5 ᴸᔪㆁъ᭟ࠪ ⧟∄˄0.2%˅˗ ⅗ݳ४˖ 5 ᴸ PPI ⧟ ∄ ˄-0.2%˅˗ 㤡ഭ˖ 5ᴸ⎸䍩ؑ䍧˗ 6 ᴸᔪㆁъ PMI ˄53.1˅˗ 㖾ഭ˖ 6ᴸ⊭䖖䬰୞˄1390 з䟿˅˗ 5 ᴸᐕল䇒অ⧟∄ ˄0.1%˅˗ ⅗ݳ४˖ ᗧഭ 6 ᴸ Markit ᴽ࣑ ъ PMI˄50.3˅˗ ⅗ݳ४ 5 ᴸ䴦୞⧟∄ ˄0.2%˅˗ 㤡ഭ˖ 6ᴸMarkitᴽ࣑ъPMI ˄53.1˅˗ ◣བྷ࡙ӊ˖ 5 ᴸ䴦୞ᆓ䈳⧟∄ ˄0.3%˅˗ ⅗ݳ४˖ ⅗ཞ㹼 7 ᴸ䇞᚟Պ䇞ߣ 䇞˗ ᗧഭ 5 ᴸᐕল䇒অ⧟∄ ˄0.4%˅˗ 㤡ഭ˖ ཞ㹼 7ᴸ䇞᚟Պ䇞ߣ䇞 ˗ ◣བྷ࡙ӊ˖ 䍨᱃⳸։˗ 㖾ഭ˖ 6 ᴸ ADP ⿱Ӫ䜘䰘ᯠ໎ ቡъӪᮠ˄9.5з˅˗ кઘ俆⅑⭣䈧ཡъᮁ⍾ Ӫᮠ˄38.6з˅˗ 6 ᴸ 䶎 ࡦ 䙐 ъ PMI ˄53.0˅˗ ⅗ݳ४˖ ⅗ཞ㹼ѫᑝ Draghi 䇢 䈍˗ ᗧഭ 5 ᴸᐕъӗ٬⧟ ∄˄0.1%˅˗ 㤡ഭ˖ 6 ᴸ PPI ӗࠪ⧟∄ ˄-0.2%˅˗ ࣐᤯བྷ˖ 6 ᴸᯠ໎ቡъӪᮠ˄5 ॳ˅˗ 6ᴸཡъ⦷˄7.0%˅˗ 6ᴸ Ivey PMI˄56.0˅˗ 㖾ഭ˖ 6ᴸ䶎ߌᯠ໎ቡъӪᮠ ˄9.0з˅˗ 6ᴸཡъ⦷˄8.2%˅˗ 6ᴸᒣ൷ሿᰦᐕ䍴⧟∄ ˄0.2%˅˗ 6 ᴸᒣ൷ᐕ֌ઘᮠ ˄34.4ሿᰦ˅ --- --- 䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖BloombergˈReutersˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ⹄ウ䜘 ᭵㔅᤟㾷δ2012ᒪ 7ᴾ 2ᰛ㠩 7ᴾ 8ᰛε 2012ᒪᒪ 7 ᴾᴾ 2ᰛᰛ ⹊⹊ガᣛ઀gᇅ㿸⹊ガ ᭯㓿ᤙ㾱˄2012ᒤ 7ᴸ 2ᰕ㠣 7ᴸ 8ᰕ˅ 䈧࣑ᗵ䰵䈫↓᮷ѻਾⲴݽ䍓ᶑⅮ䜘࠶ 2012ᒤ 7ᴸ 2ᰕ 1 ккઘ䟽㾱᭯㓿һԦа㿸� ਇ᭯ညᇗ᢯亯ⴤ䐕䘑 亩ⴞ ㊫ර ᮠ䟿о४४ฏ˄ޜਨ˅ ༷⌘ ਁ᭩င кઘਁ᭩ငᰐᇑᢩ亩ⴞ ള޻䜞࠼�� ਁᐳᵪᶴ һ亩 1 ӪབྷᑨငՊ 6ᴸ26ᰕᨀӔॱаቺޘഭӪབྷᑨငՊㅜ27⅑Պ䇞ᇑ䇞Ⲵ亴㇇⌅؞↓Ṹ㥹ṸҼᇑはᤏᚒ༽⧠㹼亴㇇⌅ޣҾൠᯩ᭯ᓌнᗇ㠚 㹼ਁ᭮᭯ᓌ٪ࡨⲴ㿴ᇊˈ䟽⭣Ā䲔⌅ᖻ઼ഭ࣑䲒ਖᴹ㿴ᇊཆˈൠᯩ᭯ᓌнᗇਁ㹼ൠᯩ᭯ᓌ٪ࡨāDŽ ᦞᚹ 2ˈ011ᒤ 12ᴸᨀ ӔॱаቺޘഭӪབྷᑨငՊࡍ⅑ᇑ䇞Ⲵ亴㇇⌅؞↓Ṹ㥹Ṹ൘࣐ᕪሩൠᯩ᭯ᓌ٪࣑㇑⨶Ⲵส⹰кˈᴮᨀࠪሩൠᯩ᭯ᓌ٪࣑ᇎ 㹼䲀仍㇑⨶DŽ 2 Ӫ≁䬦㹼 6ᴸ 26ᰕˈཞ㹼ԕ࡙⦷ᤋḷᯩᔿҾޜᔰᐲ൪ᔰኅ 950ӯݳⲴ䘶എ䍝᫽֌ˈ᫽֌ᵏ䲀Ѫ 14ཙˈѝḷ࡙⦷Ѫ 4.20%DŽ 6ᴸ 28ᰕˈཞ㹼޽⅑䘋㹼Ҷ 300ӯݳ 14ཙ䘶എ䍝᫽֌ˈѝḷ࡙⦷Ѫ 4.15%ˈԕ㕃䀓䬦㹼ഐᒤѝᰦ⛩㘳Ṩࠪ⧠⍱ࣘᙗ㍗ᕐ Ⲵተ䶒DŽ 3 㔏䇑ተ 1-5ᴸԭˈޘഭ㿴⁑ԕкᐕъԱъᇎ⧠࡙⏖ 18434ӯݳˈ਼∄л䱽 2.4%DŽ5ᴸᖃᴸᇎ⧠࡙⏖ 3909ӯݳˈ਼∄л䱽 5.3%DŽ 㿴⁑ԕкᐕъԱъᇎ⧠ѫ㩕ъ࣑᭦ޕ 345023ӯݳˈ਼∄໎䮯 11.9%DŽ⇿Ⲯݳѫ㩕ъ࣑᭦ޕѝⲴᡀᵜѪ 85.21ݳˈѫ㩕ъ ࣑᭦ޕ࡙⏖⦷Ѫ 5.34%DŽ 4 Ӫ≁䬦㹼 俉⑟എᖂ⾆ഭ 15ઘᒤѻ䱵ˈѝཞ᭯ᓌࡦᇊа㌫ࡇ᭯ㆆ᧚ᯭˈवᤜҶ᭟ᤱㅜйᯩ࡙⭘俉⑟࣎⨶Ӫ≁ᐱ䍨᱃ᣅ䍴㔃㇇ˈ䘋а ↕Ѡᇼ俉⑟Ӫ≁ᐱ⿫የӗ૱˗᧘ࠪ޵ൠо俉⑟єൠᐲ൪ӂ⴨ᤲ⡼ⲴӔ᱃ᡰӔ᱃ส䠁ӗ૱˗䘋а↕᧘ࣘ俉⑟о␡ൣѻ䰤Ⲵ ⴨ӂᣅ䍴઼䠁㶽ਸ֌ㅹDŽ 5 ᐕؑ䜘 ᐕؑ䜘ਁᐳljޣҾ啃઼࣡ᕅሬ≁䰤䍴ᵜ䘋а↕䘋ޕ⭥ؑъⲴᇎᯭ᜿㿱NJˈ ᰾⺞啃઼࣡ᕅሬⲴ䟽⛩亶ฏ˖˄ 1˅啃࣡≁䰤䍴ᵜ ᔰኅ〫ࣘ䙊ؑ䖜୞ъ࣑䈅⛩˗˄ 2˅啃࣡≁䰤䍴ᵜᔰኅ᧕ޕ㖁ъ࣑䈅⛩઼⭘ᡧ傫ൠ㖁ъ࣑˗˄ 3˅啃࣡≁䰤䍴ᵜᔰኅ㖁㔌ᢈ ㇑ъ࣑˗˄ 4˅啃࣡≁䰤䍴ᵜᔰኅ໎٬⭥ؑъ࣑˗˄ 6˅啃࣡ㅖਸᶑԦⲴ≁㩕Աъ⭣䈧䙊ؑᐕ〻䇮䇑ǃᯭᐕǃⴁ⨶ǃؑ᚟㖁 㔌㌫㔏䳶ᡀǃ⭘ᡧ㇑㓯ᔪ䇮ԕ৺䙊ؑᔪ䇮亩ⴞᤋḷԓ⨶ᵪᶴㅹԱъ䍴䍘DŽ˄ 7˅啃࣡≁䰤䍴ᵜԕ৲㛑ᯩᔿ䘋ޕส⹰⭥ؑ䘀 㩕ᐲ൪DŽ˄ 8˅啃࣡≁㩕⭥ؑԱъĀ䎠ࠪ৫āDŽ 6 ୶࣑䜘 ୶࣑䜘 6 ᴸ 22 ᰕࠪਠlj୶࣑䜘ޣҾ啃઼࣡ᕅሬ≁䰤䍴ᵜ䘋ޕ୶䍨⍱䙊亶ฏⲴᇎᯭ᜿㿱NJˈ ᰾⺞᭟ᤱ≁䰤䍴ᵜᴹᒿ䘋ޕഭ ޵ᡀ૱⋩ᐲ൪DŽ啃઼࣡ᕅሬ≁䰤ᣅ䍴൘वᤜᐕъ⎸䍩૱⍱䙊亶ฏǃ⭏ӗ䍴ᯉ⍱䙊亶ฏǃߌӗ૱⍱䙊亶ฏǃ佀侞տᇯ㹼ъ ԕ৺ަԆ⭏⍫ᴽ઼࣑୶࣑ᴽ࣑൘޵Ⲵ୶䍨⍱䙊亶ฏ৸ྭ৸ᘛਁኅˈ啃࣡≁䰤䍴ᵜਁኅ䘎䬱㓿㩕઼⢩䇨㓿㩕ǃ୶䍨⢙⍱ԕ ৺⭥ᆀ୶࣑ˈ᭟ᤱ≁䰤䍴ᵜਁኅ㶽䍴』䍱ъ࣑ǃᤃኅ᣽আъ࣑亶ฏˈᕅሬ≁䰤䍴ᵜ㿴㤳ਁኅިᖃъ઼࣑ⴤ䬰㓿㩕DŽ 7 ≤࡙䜘 6ᴸ 27ᰕˈ≤࡙䜘ࠪਠlj啃઼࣡ᕅሬ≁䰤䍴ᵜ৲оߌ⭠≤࡙ᔪ䇮ᇎᯭ㓶ࡉNJǃlj啃઼࣡ᕅሬ≁䰤䍴ᵜ৲о≤൏؍ᤱᐕ〻ᔪ 䇮ᇎᯭ㓶ࡉNJˈ ሩ≁䰤䍴ᵜ৲оߌ⭠≤઼࡙≤൏؍ᤱᔪ䇮Ⲵ৲о㤳ത઼ᯩᔿ֌ࠪҶ᰾⺞㿴ᇊˈᨀࠪҶ⴨ޣ啃࣡᭯ㆆ઼ᢦᤱ ᧚ᯭˈᒦ᰾⺞Ҷ≁䰤ᣅ䍴ѫփ⴨ޣᵳ⳺DŽ 8 տᡯ෾ґᔪ 䇮䜘 տᡯ෾ґᔪ䇮䜘ㅹг䜘䰘ᰕࡽਁࠪ䙊⸕ˈ啃઼࣡ᕅሬ≁䰤䍴ᵜ䙊䗷ⴤ᧕ᣅ䍴ǃ䰤᧕ᣅ䍴ǃ৲㛑ǃငᢈԓᔪㅹཊ⿽ᯩᔿ৲ оᓹ』տᡯǃޜޡ』䍱տᡯǃ㓿⍾䘲⭘տᡯǃ䲀ԧ୶૱տᡯ઼Ἂᡧ४᭩䙐տᡯㅹ؍䳌ᙗᆹትᐕ〻ᔪ䇮ˈ᤹㿴ᇊᡆਸ਼㓖 ᇊⲴ』䠁ḷ߶ǃԧṬ䶒ੁ᭯ᓌṨᇊⲴ؍䳌ሩ䊑ࠪ』ǃࠪ୞DŽ 9 ⢙⍱о䟷䍝 㚄ਸՊ ⢙⍱о䟷䍝㚄ਸՊਁᐳᮠ٬ᱮ⽪ˈ6ᴸԭˈѝഭࡦ䙐ъ PMIѪ 50.2%ˈ∄кᴸഎ㩭 0.2њⲮ࠶⛩ 10 ⋚␡Ӕ᱃ᡰ 6ᴸ 28ᰕлॸˈ⋚␡Ӕ᱃࠶࡛ਁᐳҶѫᶯкᐲޜਨ䘰ᐲࡦᓖᯩṸDŽᯩṸ䟽⛩Ӿєњᯩ䶒ሩ⧠㹼䘰ᐲࡦᓖ䘋㹼Ҷ䈳ᮤ˖а ᱟѪᨀ儈䘰ᐲࡦᓖⲴᆼ༷ᙗ઼ਟ᫽֌ᙗˈ໎࣐⴨ޣᲲڌкᐲǃ㓸→кᐲᤷḷˈ㓶ॆ⴨ޣḷ߶ˈѕṬᚒ༽кᐲ㾱≲ˈᆼழ 䘰ᐲ〻ᒿ˗ҼᱟѪ䘋а↕؍ᣔᣅ䍴㘵ᵳ⳺ˈᨀࠪ仾䲙䆖⽪ᶯǃ䘰ᐲޜਨ㛑ԭ䖜䇙ᴽ࣑ǃ䘰ᐲޜਨ䟽ᯠкᐲㅹ䘰ᐲ䝽྇ᵪ ࡦⲴᆹᧂDŽ ള䱻䜞࠼�� ഭᇦ˄ൠ४ ˅ һ亩 1 㖾ഭᴰ儈⌅ 䲒 ṩᦞᯠॾ㖁ॾⴋ亯ᣕ䚃ˈ㖾ഭᴰ儈⌅䲒 28ᰕԕӄ⾘䎎ᡀǃഋ⾘৽ሩ֌ࠪ㻱ߣ˖ṩᦞᇚ⌅䍻ҸഭՊⲴᖱ〾Ѫ㖾ഭབྷՇ⾿࡙ ᨀ׋䍴䠁Ⲵᵳ࣋ˈ५᭩⌅ṸѝᨀࠪⲴнᣅ؍ሶ㻛༴ԕ㖊ⅮⲴ޵ᇩᴹ᭸DŽ䘉亩㻱ߣሶ֯ᗇĀᕪࡦ५؍āᶑⅮㅖਸᇚ⌅㔉Ҹ ഭՊⲴ〾᭦ᵳ࣋ˈሶ㾱≲ࠐѾᡰᴹ㖾ഭӪ䍝Ҡ५؍ǃ੖ࡉቡሶ䶒Ѥ㖊Ⅾˈ䘉а㖊Ⅾሶ֌Ѫ〾᭦ᗇԕ؍⮉DŽ਼ᰦˈᴰ儈⌅ 䲒䘈䇔ᇊˈ⌅䲒ᴹᵳቡĀᕪࡦ५؍āᶑⅮⲴਸ⌅ᙗ֌ࠪࡔߣ˗նᱟˈሩҾᢙབྷMEDICAID㾶ⴆ䶒ⲴᶑⅮˈᴰ儈⌅䲒ӽ❦ ᨀࠪᔲ䇞ˈ儈⌅ࡔᇊˈ㚄䛖᭯ᓌӵᴹᵳ࢕ཪᤂнᢗ㹼䘉а㿴ᇊⲴᐎⲴᯠ໎䍒᭯㺕ࣙˈ㘼ᰐᵳ࢕ཪᆳԜ৏ݸӛᴹⲴ䍒᭯㺕 ࣙDŽ 2 㖾ഭ㓿⍾࠶ ᷀ተ 㖾ьᰦ䰤 6ᴸ 29ᰕˈ㖾ഭ㓿⍾࠶᷀ተ˄BEA˅ޜᐳ 5ᴸњӪ᭦ޕо᭟ࠪᮠᦞDŽ5ᴸњӪ᭦ޕ⧟∄໎䮯 0.2%ˈ⮕վҾ↔ࡽ ᐲ൪Ⲵа㠤亴ᵏ⧟∄໎䮯 0.3%˗њӪ᭟ࠪ⧟∄؍ᤱнਈˈо↔ࡽᐲ൪亴ᵏ⴨а㠤˗5 ᴸ PCE ⢙ԧᤷᮠ⧟∄໎䮯-0.2%ˈ ᭯㓿ᤙ㾱˄2012ᒤ 7ᴸ 2ᰕ㠣 7ᴸ 8ᰕ˅ 䈧࣑ᗵ䰵䈫↓᮷ѻਾⲴݽ䍓ᶑⅮ䜘࠶ 2012ᒤ 7ᴸ 2ᰕ 2 վҾ↔ࡽᐲ൪а㠤亴ᵏⲴ-0.1%˗5ᴸṨᗳ PCE⢙ԧᤷᮠ⧟∄໎䮯-0.1%ˈվҾ↔ࡽᐲ൪亴ᵏⲴ 0.2%DŽ 㖾ьᰦ䰤 6ᴸ 28ᰕˈ㖾ഭ㓿⍾࠶᷀ተ˄BEA˅ޜᐳаᆓᓖ GDP໎䙏㓸٬Ѫ 1.9%нਈˈㅖਸ↔ࡽᐲ൪а㠤亴ᵏDŽ࠶㓶亩 ᶕⴻˈњӪ⎸䍩᭟ࠪӾҼ⅑亴ՠ٬Ⲵ 2.7%л䈳㠣 2.5%˗ഭ޵⿱Ӫᣅ䍴ӾҼ⅑亴ՠ٬Ⲵ 6.3%к䈳㠣 6.5%˗ࠪਓӾҼ⅑亴 ՠ٬Ⲵ7.2%л䈳㠣4.2% 䘋ˈਓӾҼ⅑亴ՠ٬Ⲵ6.1%л䈳㠣2.7%˗᭯ ᓌ⎸䍩᭟ࠪоᣅ䍴ӾҼ⅑亴ՠ٬Ⲵ-3.9%л䈳㠣-4.0%DŽ GDPԧṬᤷᮠ⧟∄䖳Ҽ⅑亴ՠ٬Ⲵ 1.7%к䈳㠣 2.0%DŽ 3 䐟䘿 /ᇶⅷṩ བྷᆖ&㖾ഭ䉈 ୶ተ 㖾ьᰦ䰤 6ᴸ 29ᰕ 䐟ˈ䘿/ᇶⅷṩབྷᆖޜᐳ 6ᴸ⎸䍩㘵ᛵ㔚ᤷᮠ㓸٬Ѫ 73.3 վˈҾࡍ٬Ⲵ 74.1 фˈѪ 2012ᒤԕᶕᴰվ٬DŽ 㖾ьᰦ䰤 6ᴸ 26ᰕˈ㖾ഭ䉈୶ተޜᐳ 6ᴸ⎸䍩㘵ؑᗳᤷᮠѪ 62ˈվҾ↔ࡽᐲ൪а㠤亴ᵏⲴ 63.5ˈᒦվҾ 5ᴸⲴ 64.9DŽ 4 ḷ߶Პቄ 㖾ьᰦ䰤 6ᴸ 26ᰕ ḷˈᲞޜᐳ㖾ഭ 4ᴸ S&P Case-Shiller 20ᓗབྷ෾ᐲᡯԧ⧟∄к⏘ 1.3% བྷˈᑵ儈Ҿ↔ࡽᐲ൪а㠤亴ᵏⲴ к⏘ 0.4%˗਼∄л䱽 1.9%ˈ儈Ҿᐲ൪亴ᵏⲴл䱽 2.5%DŽ 5 㖾ഭӪਓᲞ ḕተ /ᡯቻо ෾ᐲਁኅ䜘 㖾ьᰦ䰤 6ᴸ 25ᰕ 㖾ˈഭӪਓᲞḕተ઼ᡯቻо෾ᐲਁኅ䜘㚄ਸޜᐳ 5ᴸᯠቻ䬰୞Ѫ 36.9з྇ 儈ˈҾ↔ࡽᐲ൪а㠤亴ᵏⲴ 35з྇ˈᒦ䖳 4ᴸⲴ 34.3з྇⧟∄к⏘ 7.6%ˈ䖳৫ᒤ਼ᵏབྷᑵк⏘ 19.8%ˈѪ 2010ᒤ 4ᴸԕᶕⲴᴰ儈ᡀӔ䟿DŽ 㖾ьᰦ䰤 6ᴸ 27ᰕˈ㖾ഭӪਓᲞḕተޜᐳ 5ᴸ㙀⭘૱䇒অ⧟∄໎䮯 1.1%ˈ儈Ҿ↔ࡽᐲ൪а㠤亴ᵏⲴ໎䮯 0.4%ˈ4ᴸ٬ ؞↓Ѫ-0.2%DŽ㓶亩ᶕⴻˈ5 ᴸ䲔䘀䗃ԕཆⲴ㙀⭘૱䇒অ⧟∄໎䮯 0.4%ˈվҾᐲ൪亴ᵏⲴ໎䮯 0.7%˗ᢓ䲔伎ᵪ䶎ഭ䱢䍴 ᵜ㙀⭘ᒣ䇒অ⧟∄໎䮯 1.6%ˈ⮕վҾ亴ᵏⲴ໎䮯 1.7%˗ᢓ䲔ഭ䱢Ⲵ㙀⭘૱䇒অ⧟∄໎䮯 0.7%ˈ儈Ҿ亴ᵏⲴ໎䮯 0.2%DŽ 6 㖾ഭᡯൠӗ ॿՊ 㖾ьᰦ䰤 6ᴸ 27ᰕˈ㖾ഭᡯൠӗॿՊޜᐳ 5ᴸᵚߣᡯቻ䬰୞⧟∄к⏘ 5.9%ˈབྷᑵ儈Ҿ↔ࡽᐲ൪а㠤亴ᵏⲴ 1.2%ˈ਼∄ к⏘ 13.3%ˈᒦѪ 2010ᒤ 4ᴸԕᶕⲴᴰ儈٬DŽ 7 ⅗ⴏጠՊ 6ᴸ 29ᰕˈ⅗ݳ४ጠՊਁᐳ༠᰾ˈ໎䮯ᯩ䶒˖ᢩ߶ᰘ൘᧘ࣘᡀઈഭ໎䮯Ⲵ䮯ᵏ䇑ࡂˈᙫ仍Ѫ 1200ӯ⅗ݳˈަѝवᤜ䇙⅗ ⍢ᣅ䍴䬦㹼˄EIB˅໎䍴 100 ӯ⅗ݳDŽ䬦㹼㚄ⴏоⴁ㇑ᯩ䶒˖ㅜаˈ⅗⍢⨶һՊሶԕㅜ 127˄6˅ᶑѪส⹰ˈᖸᘛᨀࠪᔪ ・㔏а䬦㹼ⴁ㇑ᵪࡦⲴᨀṸˈᒦфˈ൘⅗ݳ४䬦㹼㔏аⴁ㇑ᵪࡦᔪ・ԕਾˈESMሶᴹਟ㜭ሩ䬦㹼ⴤ᧕䘋㹼䟽㓴ˈᇎ⧠䘉 аᶑⲴࡽᨀवᤜ˖䚥ᆸ᭯ᓌᮁࣙ㿴ᇊˈᒦഐᵪᶴо㹼ъ㘼ᔲⲴǃԕ䈵䀓༷ᘈᖅⲴᖒᔿ↓ᔿ⺞ᇊлᶕ˗ㅜҼˈ⅗ݳ䳶ഒሶ Ựḕ⡡ቄޠ䠁㶽㹼ъⲴ⣦ߥˈᒦሩ䘉а亩ⴞ䘋㹼ᆼழˈަԆᛵᖒ਼ㅹ༴⨶˗ㅜйˈሶᮖ׳ቭᘛᆼᡀሩ㾯⨝⢉䬦㹼䜘䰘䍴 ᵜ䟽㓴䠁㶽ᨤࣙⲴ䈵䀓༷ᘈᖅˈ൘ ESMᡀ・ѻࡽˈሶ⭡ EFSFᨀ׋䠁㶽ᨤࣙˈ䲿ਾ䖜㠣 ESMˈᒦфнՊ㧧ᗇՈݸൠս˗ ㅜഋˈ֌ࠪᕪᴹ࣋᢯䈪ˈሶቭа࠷ࣚ࣋⺞؍⅗ݳ४䠁㶽っᇊˈቔަᱟ⚥⍫ᴹ᭸Ⲵ֯⭘⧠ᴹ EFSF઼ ESMᐕާˈっᇊᡀઈ ഭᐲ൪DŽ 6ᴸ 29ᰕ ᗧˈഭഭՊє䲒ԕ㔍ሩཊᮠ䙊䗷⅗ݳ४≨ѵᮁࣙส䠁઼⅗ⴏᯠ䍒᭯ޡ㓖 ᗧˈഭᙫ⨶唈ݻቄᖃᰕ㺘⽪ Āˈᯠ䍒᭯ޡ 㓖āᱟ⅗⍢䍒᭯㓚ᖻⲴส⸣ˈ㘼≨ѵᮁࣙส䠁 ESMᱟݻᴽডᵪⲴޣ䭞DŽ 8 ᗧഭ㔏䇑ተ 6 ᴸ 28 ᰕˈᗧഭ㚄䛖㔏䇑ተޜᐳ 6 ᴸཡъ⦷Ѫ 6.8%ˈ儈Ҿ↔ࡽᐲ൪а㠤亴ᵏⲴ 6.7%ˈᒦᱟ൘йᒤԕᶕⲴ俆⅑кॷˈ5 ᴸཡъ⦷ੁк䈳ᮤѪ 6.8%DŽ 6 ᴸ 27 ᰕˈᗧഭ㚄䛖㔏䇑ተޜᐳ 6 ᴸ CPI਼∄кॷ 1.7%ˈվҾ↔ࡽᐲ൪а㠤亴ᵏⲴ 1.8%ˈ5 ᴸ٬䈳ᮤѪкॷ 1.9%˗6 ᴸ CPI⧟∄кॷ-0.1%ˈоᐲ൪亴ᵏа㠤 5ˈᴸѪ-0.2% 6˗ᴸ䈳઼ CPI਼∄кॷ 2.0%ˈվҾ↔ࡽᐲ൪а㠤亴ᵏⲴ 2.1%ˈ5 ᴸкॷ 2.2%˗6ᴸ䈳઼ CPI⧟∄кॷ-0.2%ˈվҾᐲ൪亴ᵏⲴ-0.1%ˈ5ᴸѪ-0.2%DŽ 9 㤡ഭཞ㹼 6ᴸ 26ᰕˈ㤡ഭཞ㹼Ѯ㹼Ҽᆓᓖ䙊㛰ᣕ੺ੜ䇱Պˈཞ㹼㹼䮯唈䠁᮷㺘⽪ˈ㓿⍾л㹼仾䲙ᆈ൘ˈཞ㹼ᐢ㓿੟ࣘҶᢙኅᣥᣬ ૱ᇊᵏഎ䍝ॿ䇞˄ECTR˅ˈ ᒦ߶༷ྭ䟺᭮⍱ࣘᙗ˗䍗ᐱ᭯ㆆᯩ䶒ˈቭ㇑ᴹ਴⿽ഐ㍐ࡦ㓖л䈳࡙⦷ˈնཞ㹼ᒦᵚᧂ䲔䈳䱽 ࡙⦷䘉њ䘹亩ˈնⴞࡽᶕⴻ䍝Ҡᴤཊഭ٪ᴤ㜭ཏሩ㓿⍾䎧ࡠࡪ◰֌⭘DŽ 6ᴸ 29ᰕˈ㤡ഭཞ㹼䠁㶽᭯ㆆငઈՊ˄FPC˅ਁᐳ 6ᴸ䠁㶽っᇊᣕ੺ˈᤷࠪⴞࡽ䠁㶽ࡽᲟᐢ㓿ᚦॆˈ䬦㹼ሩሿԱъⲴ䍧 Ⅾࠪ⧠л䱽ˈԱъ઼ᇦᓝ࡙⦷кॷˈཞ㹼᢯䈪ሶ᭮ᶮᰘ൘؍䇱䬦㹼ᴹ㜭࣋ሩᣇ䠁㶽ডᵪ㘼ᗵ享ᤱᴹⲴ⧠䠁ǃഭ٪ԕ৺ަ Ԇ⍱ࣘᙗ䍴ӗⲴ㿴ࡉˈԕ؍䇱㓿⍾ਟᤱ㔝༽㣿DŽ 10 ᜿བྷ࡙᭯ᓌ 6ᴸ 27ᰕˈ᜿བྷ࡙৲䇞䲒ᇓᐳԕ 393⾘䎎ᡀǃ74⾘৽ሩ઼ 46⾘ᔳᵳ䙊䗷ሩ㫉㪲᭯ᓌⲴؑԫṸüüljࣣࣘ᭩䶙⌅ṸNJˈ 䈕 ⌅Ṹᰘ൘䀓ߣഭ޵ѕጫⲴཡъ䰞仈ˈᒦ਼ᰦࡪ◰᜿བྷ࡙㓿⍾ਁኅˈ⌅Ṹབྷփवᤜ啃࣡䳷ѫоᐕӪㆮ䇒䮯ᵏਸ਼ǃ䱽վԱ ъ䀓䳷ઈᐕ䳮ᓖԕ৺໎࣐ཡъ㘵⾿࡙йњѫ㾱䜘࠶DŽ 䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖᭯ᓌ㖁ㄉˈBloombergˈReutersˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ⹄ウ䜘 ࠼࠼᷆ᐾ༦᱄ Analyst Certification ѫ㾱䍏䍓᫠߉ᵜ⹄ウᣕ੺ޘ䜘ᡆ䜘࠶޵ᇩⲴ⹄ウ࠶᷀ᐸ൘↔༠᰾˖˄ i˅ᵜ⹄ウᣕ੺ᡰ㺘䘠Ⲵԫօ㿲⛩൷㋮߶ൠ৽᱐Ҷк䘠⇿ս࠶᷀ ᐸњӪሩḷⲴ䇱ࡨ઼ਁ㹼ӪⲴⴻ⌅˗˄ ii˅䈕࠶᷀ᐸᡰᗇᣕ䞜Ⲵԫօ㓴ᡀ䜘࠶ᰐ䇪ᱟ൘䗷৫ǃ⧠൘৺ሶᶕ൷нՊⴤ᧕ᡆ䰤᧕ൠо⹄ウᣕ੺ ᡰ㺘䘠Ⲵާփᔪ䇞ᡆ㿲⛩⴨㚄㌫DŽThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. ж㡢ᙝ༦᱄ ↔ᣕ੺ᒦ䶎䪸ሩᡆ᜿മ䘱ਁ㔉ᡆѪԫօቡ䘱ਁǃਁ ᐳǃਟᗇࡠᡆ֯⭘↔ᣕ੺㘼֯ѝؑ䇱ࡨ㛑ԭᴹ䲀ޜਨ৺ަ䱴኎ᵪᶴ˄ ԕл㔏〠Āѝ ؑ䇱ࡨā˅ 䘍৽ᖃൠⲴ⌅ᖻᡆ⌅㿴ᡆਟ㠤֯ѝؑ䇱ࡨਇࡦҾ⴨ޣ⌅ᖻᡆ⌅㿴Ⲵԫօൠ४ǃഭᇦᡆަᆳ㇑䗆४ฏⲴޜ≁ᡆት≁DŽ䲔䶎ਖᴹ 㿴ᇊˈᵜᣕ੺ѝⲴᡰᴹᶀᯉ⡸ᵳ൷኎ѝؑ䇱ࡨDŽᵚ㓿ѝؑ䇱ࡨһݸҖ䶒ᦸᵳˈнᗇԕԫօᯩᔿ؞᭩ǃਁ䘱ᡆ㘵༽ࡦᵜᣕ੺৺ަᡰवਜ਼Ⲵ ᶀᯉǃ޵ᇩDŽᡰᴹҾ↔ᣕ੺ѝ֯⭘Ⲵ୶ḷǃᴽ࣑ḷ䇶৺ḷ䇠൷Ѫѝؑ䇱ࡨⲴ୶ḷǃᴽ࣑ḷ䇶৺ḷ䇠DŽ ᵜᣕ੺ᱟᵪᇶⲴˈਚᴹ᭦ԦӪ᡽㜭֯⭘DŽᵜᣕ੺ᡰ䖭Ⲵؑ᚟ǃᶀᯉᡆ࠶᷀ᐕާਚᨀ׋㔉䰱л֌৲㘳ѻ⭘ˈнᱟᡆнᓄ㻛㿶Ѫࠪ୞ǃ 䍝Ҡᡆ䇔䍝䇱ࡨᡆަᆳ䠁㶽ᐕާⲴ㾱㓖ᡆ㾱㓖䚰䈧DŽѝؑ䇱ࡨҏнഐ᭦ԦӪ᭦ࡠᵜᣕ੺㘼㿶ަѪѝؑ䇱ࡨⲴᇒᡧDŽ ᵜᣕ੺ᡰ䖭䍴ᯉⲴᶕⓀ৺㿲⛩Ⲵࠪ༴Ⲷ㻛ѝؑ䇱ࡨ䇔Ѫਟ䶐ˈնѝؑ䇱ࡨн؍䇱ަ߶⺞ᙗᡆᆼᮤᙗDŽ䲔⌅ᖻᡆ㿴ࡉ㿴ᇊᗵ享᢯ᣵⲴ 䍓ԫཆˈѝؑ䇱ࡨнሩഐ֯⭘↔ᣕ੺Ⲵᶀᯉ㘼ᕅ㠤Ⲵᦏཡ䍏ԫօ䍓ԫDŽ᭦ԦӪнᓄঅ㓟׍䶐↔ᣕ੺㘼ਆԓњӪⲴ⤜・ࡔᯝDŽᵜᣕ੺ᡰᤷ Ⲵ䇱ࡨᡆ䠁㶽ᐕާⲴԧṬǃԧ٬৺᭦ޕਟ䏼ਟॷDŽԕᖰⲴ㺘⧠нᓄ֌Ѫᰕਾ㺘⧠Ⲵᱮ⽪৺ᣵ؍DŽᵜᣕ੺ᡰ䖭Ⲵ䍴ᯉǃ᜿㿱৺᧘⍻৽᱐ѝ ؑ䇱ࡨҾᴰࡍਁᐳ↔ᣕ੺ᰕᵏᖃᰕⲴࡔᯝˈਟ൘нਁࠪ䙊⸕Ⲵᛵᖒлڊࠪᴤ᭩ˈӖਟഐ֯⭘н਼ٷ䇮઼ḷ߶ǃ䟷⭘н਼㿲⛩઼࠶᷀ᯩ⌅ 㘼оѝؑ䇱ࡨަᆳъ࣑䜘䰘ᡆঅսᡰ㔉ࠪⲴ᜿㿱н਼ᡆ㘵⴨৽DŽᵜᣕ੺нᶴᡀ⿱Ӫ૘䈒ᔪ䇞ˈҏ⋑ᴹ㘳㲁ࡠњ࡛ᇒᡧ⢩↺Ⲵᣅ䍴ⴞḷǃ 䍒࣑⣦ߥᡆ䴰㾱DŽ᭦ԦӪᓄ㘳㲁ᵜᣕ੺ѝⲴԫօ᜿㿱ᡆᔪ䇞ᱟ੖ㅖਸަ⢩ᇊ⣦ߥDŽ ѝؑ䇱ࡨ࡙⭘ؑ᚟䳄⿫້᧗ࡦ޵䜘ањᡆཊњ亶ฏˈԕ৺䜘䰘䰤ѻؑ᚟⍱ࣘDŽ᫠߉ᵜᣕ੺Ⲵ࠶᷀ᐸⲴ㯚䞜⭡⹄ウ䜘䰘㇑⨶ቲ઼ޜਨ 儈㓗㇑⨶ቲޘᵳߣᇊDŽ࠶᷀ᐸⲴ㯚䞜нᱟสҾѝؑ䇱ࡨᣅ㹼᭦ޕ㘼ᇊˈնᱟˈ࠶᷀ᐸⲴ㯚䞜ਟ㜭оᣅ㹼ᮤփ᭦ޕᴹޣˈަѝवᤜᣅ㹼ǃ 䬰୞оӔ᱃ъ࣑DŽ ൘⌅ᖻ䇨ਟⲴᛵߥл ѝˈؑ䇱ࡨⲴаսᡆཊս㪓һǃ儈㓗㙼ઈ઼/ᡆઈᐕ(वᤜ৲о߶༷ᡆਁ㹼↔ᣕ੺ⲴӪ)ਟ㜭(1)о↔ᣕ੺ᡰᨀࡠⲴ ԫօޜਨᔪ・ᡆ؍ᤱ亮䰞ǃᣅ䍴䬦㹼ᡆ䇱ࡨᴽ࣑ޣ㌫ (ˈ2)ᐢ㓿ੁ↔ᣕ੺ᡰᨀࡠⲴޜਨᨀ׋Ҷབྷ䟿Ⲵᔪ䇞ᡆᣅ䍴ᴽ࣑DŽ൘⌅ᖻ䇨ਟⲴᛵߥ лˈѝؑ䇱ࡨⲴаսᡆཊս㪓һǃ儈㓗㙼ઈ઼/ᡆઈᐕਟ㜭ᣵԫ↔ᣕ੺ᡰᨀࡠⲴޜਨⲴ㪓һDŽ൘⌅ᖻ䇨ਟⲴᛵߥлˈѝؑ䇱ࡨਟ㜭৲о ᡆᣅ䍴↔ᣕ੺ᡰᨀࡠⲴޜਨⲴ䠁㶽Ӕ᱃ˈੁᴹޣޜਨᨀ׋ᡆ㧧ਆᴽ࣑ˈ৺/ᡆᤱᴹަ䇱ࡨᡆᵏᵳᡆ䘋㹼䇱ࡨᡆᵏᵳӔ᱃DŽ 㤕ѝؑ䇱ࡨԕཆⲴ䠁㶽ᵪᶴਁ䘱ᵜᣕ੺ˈࡉ⭡䈕䠁㶽ᵪᶴ⤜㠚Ѫ↔ਁ䘱㹼Ѫ䍏䍓DŽ䈕ᵪᶴᇒᡧᓄ㚄㌫䈕ᵪᶴԕӔ᱃ᵜᣕ੺ѝᨀ৺Ⲵ 䇱ࡨᡆ㾱≲㧧ᚹᴤ䈖㓶ؑ᚟DŽᵜᣕ੺нᶴᡀѝؑ䇱ࡨੁਁ䘱ᵜᣕ੺䠁㶽ᵪᶴѻᇒᡧᨀ׋Ⲵᣅ䍴ᔪ䇞ˈѝؑ䇱ࡨⲴ㪓һǃ儈㓗㙼ઈ઼ઈᐕ ӖнѪࡽ䘠䠁㶽ᵪᶴѻᇒᡧഐ֯⭘ᵜᣕ੺ᡆᣕ੺䖭᰾Ⲵ޵ᇩᕅ䎧Ⲵⴤ᧕ᡆ䘎ᑖᦏཡ᢯ᣵԫօ䍓ԫDŽ ѝؑ䇱ࡨ㛑ԭᴹ䲀ޜਨ৺ަ䱴኎৺㚄㩕ޜਨ 2012⡸ᵳᡰᴹDŽ؍⮉а࠷ᵳ࡙DŽ ṩᦞѝഭ䇱ⴁՊṨਁⲴ㓿㩕䇱ࡨъ࣑䇨ਟˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ㛑ԭᴹ䲀ޜਨⲴ㓿㩕㤳തवᤜ䇱ࡨᣅ䍴૘䈒ъ࣑DŽ 䇺㓝䈪᱄ 1. ᣋ䍺ᔰ䇤Ⲻ∊䖹ḽ߼ ᣅ䍴䇴㓗࠶Ѫ㛑⾘䇴㓗઼㹼ъ䇴㓗DŽ ԕᣕ੺ਁᐳਾⲴ 6 њᴸ޵Ⲵᐲ൪㺘⧠Ѫ∄䖳ḷ߶ˈᣕ੺ਁ ᐳᰕਾⲴ 6 њᴸ޵Ⲵޜਨ㛑ԧ˄ᡆ㹼ъᤷᮠ˅Ⲵ⏘䏼ᑵ⴨ ሩ਼ᵏⲴѝؑḷᲞ 300ᤷᮠⲴ⏘䏼ᑵѪส߶˗ 2. ᣋ䍺ᔰ䇤Ⲻ䇺㓝ḽ߼ ᣕ੺ਁᐳᰕਾⲴ 6њᴸ޵Ⲵޜਨ㛑ԧ˄ᡆ㹼ъᤷᮠ˅Ⲵ⏘䏼 ᑵ⴨ሩ਼ᵏⲴѝؑḷᲞ 300ᤷᮠⲴ⏘䏼ᑵ˖ 䇺㓝�� 䈪᱄�� 㛑⾘ᣅ䍴䇴㓗 Ҡޕ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300ᤷᮠ⏘ᑵ 20%ԕк˗ ໎ᤱ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300ᤷᮠ⏘ᑵӻҾ 5%̚20%ѻ䰤˗ ᤱᴹ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300ᤷᮠ⏘ᑵӻҾ-10%̚5%ѻ䰤˗ আࠪ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300ᤷᮠ䏼ᑵ 10%ԕк˗ 㹼ъᣅ䍴䇴㓗 ᕪҾབྷᐲ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300ᤷᮠ⏘ᑵ 10%ԕк˗ ѝᙗ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300ᤷᮠ⏘ᑵӻҾ-10%̚10%ѻ䰤 ˗ ᕡҾབྷᐲ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300ᤷᮠ䏼ᑵ 10%ԕк � ्Ӣ�� р⎭�� ␧൩�� ѣؗ䇷࡮ള䱻ᴿ䲆ޢਮ�� ൠ൰˖ ेӜᐲᵍ䱣४Ӟ傜ẕ䐟 48ਧ ѝؑ䇱ࡨབྷ৖˄100125˅ к⎧⎖ьᯠ४ц㓚བྷ䚃 1568ਧ ѝᔪབྷ৖ 22ᾬ˄200122˅ ␡ൣᐲ⾿⭠४ѝᗳй䐟8ਧѝؑ 䇱ࡨབྷ৖˄518048˅ 俉⑟ѝ⧟␫㖾䚃 1ਧѝؑ བྷ৖ 26ᾬ Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S. ቧੇ㗄ള൦॰ਇ䘷⹊ガᣛ઀㙂֒Ⲻཌള㔅㓠୼-Ӛ᱉୼༦᱄ This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company (“CITIC Securities”, regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder. ᵜᣕ੺⭡ѝؑ䇱ࡨ㛑ԭᴹ䲀ޜਨ˄ ㆰ〠Āѝؑ䇱ࡨāˈਇѝഭ䇱ⴁՊⴁ㇑ 㓿ˈ㩕䇱ࡨъ࣑䇨ਟ䇱㕆ਧ Z˖20374000˅ ࡦ֌DŽ᤹➗lj1934ᒤ㖾ഭ䇱ࡨӔ᱃⌅ṸNJлⲴ 15a-6(a) (2)㿴ࡉˈ൘㖾ഭᵜᣕ੺⭡ѝؑ䇱ࡨӵੁ 15a-6 㿴ࡉ৺ަлlj㖾ഭ䇱ࡨӔ᱃ငઈՊᰐᔲ䇞࠭NJᡰᇊ ѹⲴĀѫ㾱㖾ഭᵪᶴᣅ䍴㘵āਁ䘱DŽ