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SupplyingBMW.pdf

SupplyingBMW.pdf

上传者: huiquanedu 2012-12-16 评分 0 0 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《SupplyingBMWpdf》,可适用于行业分析领域,主题内容包含SUPPLYINGBMWPublishedbySupplierBusinessLtd,AnIHSGlobalInsightCompanyStPaul符等。

SUPPLYINGBMWPublishedbySupplierBusinessLtd,AnIHSGlobalInsightCompanyStPaul’sStreetTel:()StamfordFax:()LincsPEBEInternet:http:wwwsupplierbusinesscomUnitedKingdomEmail:infosupplierbusinesscomSupplierBusinessLtd,anIHSGlobalInsightCompanisaspecialistconsultancyprovidinganalysisoftheautomotiveindustryfortheautomotiveindustrySupplierBusinesshasfocusedondevelopmentsinthesuppliersectorandhaspublishedarangeofreportsonindustryissuesinthelasttwelveyearsContributorstothisreportinclude:GillianAchurch,AlexBoekestyn,EdmundChew,MatteoFini,StewartPedder,StevenWingettSupplierBusinessLtd,AllrightsreservedNopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwise,withoutthepriorpermissionofthepublisher,SupplierBusinessLtdWhileeveryefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationinthispublication,norepresentationsorwarrantiesastotheaccuracyorcompletenessofitscontentsaremadeorgiven,andthepublishersacceptnoliabilityofanykindtoanypartyarisingoutoforinconnectionwiththeuseofthispublicationBMWSourcingreportOVERVIEWPRODUCTIONSTRATEGYPURCHASINGSTRATEGYSUPPLIERSELECTIONPRICINGPOLICYAPPROACHTOQUALITYRESEARCHANDDEVELOPMENTMODULESSYSTEMSOEMSURVEYRESULTSFORBMWNEGOTIATIONSQUALITYTECHNOLOGYORGANISATIONTRUSTATTRACTIVENESSSWOTANALYSISOFSUPPLYINGBMWBMWGLOBALFOOTPRINTMAJORSUPPLIERSBYCOMPONENTSECTORCHASSISUNDERBODYELECTRICALELECTRONICEXTERIORINTERIORPOWERTRAINSupplyingBMWSupplierBusinessLtdSolidfinancialsnotwithstandingthebadappearancesOverviewAverychallengingmediumtermisloomingfortheworld'sfirstpremiumcarmanufacturer,butagrimbottomlineovertheshorttermdoesnotalwaysmeanthatthereislittlespacetobouncingbackThisis,inbrief,thegeneralpicturegainedfromtheanalysisoftheGermancarmaker'sperformances,bothfinanciallyandindustriallyThecompany'smanagementstrategyseemstobedesignedaccordingly,asameanstoattainlongtermviabilityandprofitabilityInlightofthecurrenteconomicturmoil,financialmanagementwasidentifiedbyBMWtopexecutivesasthekeyactivitytofocusonThisisaimedatimprovingthecapabilityofthecompanyinweatheringthedownturnintheshorttomediumtermaswellasitsindependenceintheautomotivesectorOntheotherhand,significantchangesinthecoreindustrialoperations–namelymajorproductportfolioupdatesandadditions–willbecomeatopprioritylateronasapartofalongtermstrategytoachievevolumegrowthThisencompassesthecompletionoftherenewaloftheproductlineupbywithnewversionsofBMW’sbestsellingproductsIfallthesechangesaredeliveredandtheyprovesuccessful,theGermancarmakerwillhaveaccomplisheditsaimtostrengthenitscurrentstandingofleadingpremiumautomakerwithastrongpropensityforsportysaloonsLastthofMarch,CEONorbertReithoferpresentedworsethanexpectedfourthquarterfinancialresults,withanreductionofnetprofitstomfrombnbackinRevenuesdecreasedbytobnMoreovercardeliveriestocustomerswere,,,downbycomparedto,whileautomobileproductiondecreased,about,unitsmorethanreportedsalesIfBMWwasnotoperatinginamarketwhichisexperiencingplummetingfigures,withasmuchas–fallinsalesinthepremiumcarsegment,thesefigureswouldhavebeenperceivedasdisastrousItisimportanttonoteBMW'searningswerestronglydampenedbytheadditionalriskprovisionsofbntooffsetresidualvaluesandbaddebtriskslinkedtothefinancialservicesactivitiesofthecarmakerBMW'sarchrivalDaimlerputasidemtocoversinkingresidualvalues,afiguresignificantlylowerthanBMW'sOntheotherhandtheBavariancarmakermanagedtokeeparathersolidfinancialstanding,thankstoanincreasebyoftheholdingsofcashfundsandmarketablesecuritiestobn,againstthebnonthebalancesheetIntimesoftighteningcreditmarketsthissurelyrepresentsapointofstrength,instarkcontrastwithothercompetitorswhichhavebeensufferingfromrelentlesscashburningUSAGERMANYUKITALYFRANCECHINASPAINJAPANBELGIUMRUSSIAFigure:BMW'stoptenmarketsasaoftotalsales(Source:IHSGlobalInsight)SupplyingBMWSupplierBusinessLtdPerfectstormofunfortunateexposures:USandUKmarketsDollarexposureLeasingandbaddebtsexposureModelcyclestimingisnothelpingsalesAdeteriorationoftheoutstandingperformancestheGermanOEMrecordedinishowevernoticeableThishingesonseveralfactors,inparticularthefootprintofitscoretargetmarketsandthewaythisexposurewascarriedoutFirstofallBMWhastheUSandUKamongitstopthreebestsellingmarketsIntheyjointlyaccountedforofthegroup'stotalsalesThesetwocountriesareunanimouslyrecognisedasthefirstandtheworstaffectedbyrecession,thushittingBMWsalesinbothofthembecauseoflowerdemandanddifficulttradingconditionsTheUSinparticularfirmlyrepresentsthebiggestsinglesalesmarketforBMW,includingforsalesoftheMinibrandAccordingtoIHSGlobalInsightsalesontheUSmarketareforecasttoplungebyabout,unitsto,throughtheendoffromthepeakachievedinAnotherpainfulimplicationofthehighlevelofdependenceontheUSmarketistheexposuretoexchangeratesfluctuationsThesehavehadacorrosiveeffectonearningsInfacttheweaknessoftheUSdollarhasmadetheenforcementofacompetitiveandprofitablepricingpolicyintheNorthAmericanmarketsquitedifficultThedepreciationoftheUSdollarcreatesaproblembecauseBMW'scostsarelargelydenominatedineuro,whileitsrevenuesandsubsequentlyearningsareheavilydollarbased,inlightoftheabovementionedrobustsalesontheUSmarketInparticulartheadditionalchargelinkedtocurrencyfluctuations,chieflyUSdollarbutalsoBritishpound,materialisedinalossforBMWofmaspostedinthefourthquartermeetingwithfinancialanalystsThislosswasconcentratedinthefirstpartofBMWadmittedthatthedecisiontoaxe,jobsinthefirstmonthsofpartiallycameasareactiontoworriesaboutexchangeratesswingsBMW,aswellasotherpremiumEuropeancarmakers,areheavyexporterstotheUS,andcannotfreelyoperatetheoldpolicyofraisingpricesconsistentlywithexchangeratesastheyusedtodointhepastbecauseoftheraisedlevelofcompetitionintheUSmarketTheprolongedweaknessofthedollarhasimplications,aswewillseelater,onthetypesofcountermeasurestheGermanOEMistakingtooffsetthisstructuraldisadvantageAnyhow,exchangeratesswingswillhavelessimpactin,comparedtopreviousyears,accordingtoBMW'sChiefFinancialOfficer,FriedrichEichinerTheaggressivenessintoleasingandfinancialservices,especiallyintheUSmarket,wasnotcostlessforBMWTheBavariancarmakerhadbeenpursuinghighleasinglevelsuptoonitsSeriesThishadtheadvantageofboostingsales,fosteringloyaltyratesforleasedcars(upto),increasingthenumberofextraspresentonaverageinthecar(byalmostaccordingtoBMW)ifcomparedwithvehiclesboughtwithcash,anddecreasingtheaveragelengthofpossessionofthevehicle(fiveyearonaverageforacashboughtcar,versusthreeyearforaleasedcar)OnthewholecustomerleaseandfinancingagreementssawapenetrationincreasefromintoinforthegroupworldwideTheincreasedsupplyofusedvehiclesandasaggingeconomyhavereducedtheresidualvaluesofBMWandotherpremiumcarmakers’vehiclesThesewerefurtherdepressedbyhighernumbersofvehiclerepossessionsThecostofthisexcessiverelianceonleasingplansandtheincreaseofcreditlossratescostedslightlylessthanbninthebalancesheetAnotherfactorwhichcyclicallyaffectscarmakersisthetimingofmodelcycleswhichcanhavemajorimpactsonsalesvolumesThisiscertainlythecaseforBMWwithnovolumemodelplannedtorolloutbeforeTheeffectsofthislackofnew"mass"productsinthepipelinearegreateralsoinlightofthesevenyearscyclewhichispursuedbyBMW,asdeclaredbyCEOReithoferAsshowninfigureBMW’s“cashcows”areessentiallytheSeries,accountingforaboutathirdofthecarmaker'stotalsales,theSeriesandtheSeriesAnewSeriesisexpectedby,onthenewLplatformwhichisduetoreplacethecurrentLTheLwillalsounderpinthenewSeries,whichisexpectedinthefirsthalfofThenewSeries,basedonthenewLplatforminsteadofthecurrentEwillrolloutfromSupplyingBMWSupplierBusinessLtdEmergingmarketsunexploitedtheDingolfinplantinearlyTherenovationofthe"cashcow"lineupwillnotbefinalisedbefore,whichwillaffectthelevelsofsalesformodelswhichwereintroducedasearlyas,likeinthecaseoftheBMW'sbreadandbutterSeriesSERIESSERIESSERIESSERIESSERIESNKXXXZNEWMINIPHANTOMFigure:ShareofBMWsalesinpermodel(Source:IHSGlobalInsight),,,,,,SERIESSERIESSERIESSERIESSERIESXXXZNEWMINIPASFigure:ForecastsalesofBMWmodels(Source:IHSGlobalInsight)BMWhashadtraditionallyweakinsalesonemergingmarketsInRussianandChinesesalesaccountedforoftotalsalesThesetwoemergingmarketsareforecasttorecordinterestinggrowthratesoverthenextfewyearsandBMWispushingexportstotheregionbecauseofthebetterprofitmarginstheyoffercomparedtomaturemarketsOneofthestrengthsoftheGermancarmakeristhepossibilitytoquicklyadaptitsbuildscheduleinordertodeployvehiclesinlessdistressedmarketsThisstemsfromthereallyglobalproductportfolioofthecarmaker,whichisbasedonmodelswhicharesellableinnearlyallregionsoftheworldNotwithstandingtheabovementionedgrowthrates,itisunlikelyforChinaandRussiatobecomemajormarketsfortheGermancarmaker,asconfirmedbyIHSGlobalInsightsalesforecasts,whichreportChinasalesatandRussiaatofthegrouptotalsalesinTheUSandWesternEuropeareforecasttokeepthelion'sshareastheywillalwaysaccountforoverofunitssoldworldwideSupplyingBMWSupplierBusinessLtdTranslatingsalesintoprofitabilitythroughtightercontroloncostsUltimategoal:independenceShakygrowthforecastsAtraditionalproblemaffectingthegrowthofBMWoverthelastdecadeisthedifficultyintranslatingsalesvolumesgrowthintonetprofitsInfactthereisverylittlecorrelationbetweenthesetwoparametersinBMW'scaseWhiledeliveriesofautomotiveproductstocustomershavegrownbyanannualaverageofstartingfrom,profitshavebeenratherlessproportionatebecauseofsomebadfinancialperformancesespeciallyinandThistakesustothenewstrategicguidelinesBMW'smanagementboardhavesetwiththeirNumberOnestrategywhichwaspresentedinThefirstdirectionalongwhichtheplanisbeingdeployedisincreasingprofitabilityTheprofitabilitytarget,whichhasnotbeenrevisedlately,unlikethevolumetarget,foreseesareturnoncapitalemployed(ROCE)ofandaROE(ReturnOnSales)of–AllthisforthesoleautomotivedivisionandfortheyearTheunderlyingpolicytoachievethischallenginggoalisatightercontroloncostsTheveryfirstactivitythatwascarriedouttoreachtheabovementionedtargetencompassesageneralisedreductionofheadcountBMWcut,positionsin,,throughbuyoutoffersand,throughnaturalnotreplacedturnoverThereductionallowedminsavingsinAdditional,jobsareexpectedtobeaxedinthroughnaturalattritionThiswilltaketotalworkforcejustbelowthe,thresholdinOtherareasonwhichBMWwillfocusincludeeffortstospotinefficienciesandunnecessarycostsarepurchasing,whichwasidentifiedastheprimarysourceofsavings,(asdescribedinthepurchasingstrategysection)andmarketingretailactivitiesInparticularBMWwantstoreshapeitsUSsalesbycuttinglocalcorporatejobs,bycuttingleasepenetrationvolumefromtoandbyreducingtheincentivespending,whichhashelpedboostingsalesbutwithlowerprofitmarginsAsJimO'Donnell,CEOofBMWUS,putittoAutomotiveNews,"Itiswrongtopushinamarketthatisdeclining"Withcarmarketsexpectedtodeclinebytoin,noreliableearningsoutlookcanbeforecastAccordingtoBMW'sChiefExecutivethechallengesofcomewithasetoffinancialpriorities:liquidity,freecashflowandworkingcapitalAllofthistoensuretheGermancarmaker'sfutureindependenceinastrugglingautomotivesectorThisgoesagainstthetideofthegeneralconsensusforecastingacceleratedconsolidationintheindustry,withBMWaswellasPSAandFiatseenmostvulnerableinEuropefortheloweconomiesofscaletheycanbenefitfromcomparedtorivalsWhileacompetitorofthecalibreofAudiissurelygaininggroundalsobecauseitiswellestablishedintheVolkswagengalaxy,BMWdeniedinterestintheailingmasscarmakerOpelandwillprobablygoforashareswappingdealwitharchrivalDaimlerThischieflydependsonbeatingtheresistanceofBMW'smajorityshareholder,theQuandtfamilyProductionstrategyInadditiontoprofitability,theNumberOnestrategywhichBMWsetasoverridingpolicyforthecompany'sdevelopmentforeseesgrowthasanotherkeypointAgrowthwhichisforecasttobeachievedintermsofvolumesBMW’stopexecutivesdeclaredtohaveaninstalledcapacityofmillionvehiclesperyearTheyhadforecastanincreaseofsalesuptomillionsby,butthenretreatedtomillionduringthelastfinancialanalystconferenceonMarchthethBMWCEOclaimedtobe"absolutelysure"theOEMwillachievethetargetandtheambitiousfinancialtargetsitsetarewithinreachevenwiththisreductioninforecastsalesReachingthegoalwouldrequireanincreaseofcapacityby,unitsbyDuringthelastfewyearsBMWhasdistinguisheditselfforhavinglessovercapacitycomparedtoothermainstreamOEMsthankstoitshighlyflexibleplantsOneoftheareaswhereBMWhasachievedmanufacturingexcellenceisbuilttoorder,withitsCustomerOrientedSalesandProductionProcess(COSP)SupplyingBMWSupplierBusinessLtdUSapart,fairlystableproductionfootprintContractmanufacturingtobecontinuedfornichemodelsThankstothisapproachtothejointmanagementofsales,logisticsandmanufacturing,theBavariancarmakerhasanoutstandingadvantageinadaptingactualproductiontothetastesofthefinalcustomerThefootprintofBMW'sproductionisnotlikelytoseemajorchangesinthenextfouryearsTheshareofGermanproductionwillremainstableatoveroftotalproductionTheonlyalterationisaslightincreaseofUSproductionlevels(fromoftotalproductionintooverin)withmoreoutputfromBMW'sSpartanburg(SouthCarolina)plantTheNorthAmericanplantistoseeaUS$minvestmenttoincreaseinstalledcapacityfrom,unitsto,inThismovemakessensefortworeasons,atleasttheoreticallyFirstitiswiseforBMWtoincreasecapacityinitssinglebestsellingmarketThismovemustbealsoseenwithinthecontextofanincreasednaturalhedgingBMWispursuingagainstcurrencyswings,whichinwereamongthecausesofthefinancialsetbacksonthecompany'sbalancesheetGERMANYUSAUKAFRICAAUSTRIACHINARUSSIAINDIAASEANFigure:BMWproductionsubdivisionforecast(Source:IHSGlobalInsight)Loweringexposuretodollarexchangeratefluctuationsisnotlimitedtomanufacturing,aswewillseeinthepurchasingstrategyanalysisAsaresultoftheseproductionallocationmovesSpartanburgwillbecomethemainglobalcentreforXmodelssincemostproductionofXandtheentireproductionofXandXwillbecarriedouthereForthemomenttheSpartanburgplantexportssomeofitsoutput,whichdoesnotseemtomakeBMW'sdecisionveryconsistentwiththeactualdestinationsoftheSpartanburgproductionInthemeantimesomecapacitywasfreedintheSouthCarolinaproductionfacilitythankstotheZbeingmovedtotheRegensburg(Germany)plantInBMWtopexecutives'opinionmovingXproductiontoUSmakestheproductclosertothemarketswheremostsaleswilloccurThatifwelookatsalesforecastsdepictedinFigure,thisdoesnotappeartobethecaseAccordingtoIHSGlobalInsightforecastsmostXsaleswillcomefromWesternEuropefornolessthaneightyearsIftheforecastsproveright,BMW’sallocationofXproductiontotheUSmightnotbeasbeneficialasitwasintendedtobeOntheotherhandthedecisiontomoveZproductionbacktoEuropeseemstobemoresensibleasWesternEuropeisexpectedtopresentagreaterdemandfortheluxuryroadsterTheincreaseinUSoutputiscompensatedforbythedropinAustrianproduction,becausetheXwasmovedtoUSshoresfrombeingcontractmanufacturedbyMagnaSteyrinGrazButthisdoesnotmeanBMWishasgivenuprelyingonexternalmanufacturersWhiletheXproductionisbeingmovedbackinhouse,BMWplanstocontinuecontractmanufacturingtoexternalpartners,namel

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