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首页 INVESTMENT VALUATION-Tools & Techniques for Dete…

INVESTMENT VALUATION-Tools & Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset.pdf

INVESTMENT VALUATION-Tools & Tec…

nwguru 2012-12-16 评分 0 浏览量 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《INVESTMENT VALUATION-Tools & Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Assetpdf》,可适用于经济金融领域,主题内容包含AswathDamodaranINVESTMENTVALUATION:SECONDEDITIONChapter:IntroductiontoValu符等。

AswathDamodaranINVESTMENTVALUATION:SECONDEDITIONChapter:IntroductiontoValuationChapter:ApproachestoValuationChapter:UnderstandingFinancialStatementsChapter:TheBasicsofRiskChapter:OptionPricingTheoryandModelsChapter:MarketEfficiency:TheoryandModelsChapter:RisklessRatesandRiskPremiumsChapter:EstimatingRiskParametersandCostsofFinancingChapter:MeasuringEarningsChapter:FromEarningstoCashFlowsChapter:EstimatingGrowthChapter:ClosureinValuation:EstimatingTerminalValueChapter:DividendDiscountModelsChapter:FreeCashflowtoEquityModelsChapter:FirmValuation:CostofCapitalandAPVApproachesChapter:EstimatingEquityValuePerShareChapter:FundamentalPrinciplesofRelativeValuationChapter:EarningsMultiplesChapter:BookValueMultiplesChapter:RevenueandSectorSpecificMultiplesChapter:ValuingFinancialServiceFirmsChapter:ValuingFirmswithNegativeEarningsChapter:ValuingYoungandStartupFirmsChapter:ValuingPrivateFirmsChapter:AcquisitionsandTakeoversChapter:ValuingRealEstateChapter:ValuingOtherAssetsChapter:TheOptiontoDelayandValuationImplicationsChapter:TheOptiontoExpandandAbandon:ValuationImplicationsChapter:ValuingEquityinDistressedFirmsChapter:ValueEnhancement:ADiscountedCashflowFrameworkChapter:ValueEnhancement:EVA,CFROIandOtherToolsChapter:ValuingBondsChapter:ValuingForwardandFuturesContractsChapter:OverviewandConclusionsReferencesCHAPTERINTRODUCTIONTOVALUATIONEveryasset,financialaswellasreal,hasavalueThekeytosuccessfullyinvestinginandmanagingtheseassetsliesinunderstandingnotonlywhatthevalueisbutalsothesourcesofthevalueAnyassetcanbevalued,butsomeassetsareeasiertovaluethanothersandthedetailsofvaluationwillvaryfromcasetocaseThus,thevaluationofashareofarealestatepropertywillrequiredifferentinformationandfollowadifferentformatthanthevaluationofapubliclytradedstockWhatissurprising,however,isnotthedifferencesinvaluationtechniquesacrossassets,butthedegreeofsimilarityinbasicprinciplesThereisundeniablyuncertaintyassociatedwithvaluationOftenthatuncertaintycomesfromtheassetbeingvalued,thoughthevaluationmodelmayaddtothatuncertaintyThischapterlaysoutaphilosophicalbasisforvaluation,togetherwithadiscussionofhowvaluationisorcanbeusedinavarietyofframeworks,fromportfoliomanagementtocorporatefinanceAphilosophicalbasisforvaluationItwasOscarWildewhodescribedacynicasonewho“knowsthepriceofeverything,butthevalueofnothing”Hecouldverywellhavebeendescribingsomeequityresearchanalystsandmanyinvestors,asurprisingnumberofwhomsubscribetothe'biggerfool'theoryofinvesting,whicharguesthatthevalueofanassetisirrelevantaslongasthereisa'biggerfool'willingtobuytheassetfromthemWhilethismayprovideabasisforsomeprofits,itisadangerousgametoplay,sincethereisnoguaranteethatsuchaninvestorwillstillbearoundwhenthetimetosellcomesApostulateofsoundinvestingisthataninvestordoesnotpaymoreforanassetthanitsworthThisstatementmayseemlogicalandobvious,butitisforgottenandrediscoveredatsometimeineverygenerationandineverymarketTherearethosewhoaredisingenuousenoughtoarguethatvalueisintheeyesofthebeholder,andthatanypricecanbejustifiedifthereareotherinvestorswillingtopaythatpriceThatispatentlyabsurdPerceptionsmaybeallthatmatterwhentheassetisapaintingorasculpture,butinvestorsdonot(andshouldnot)buymostassetsforaestheticoremotionalreasonsfinancialassetsareacquiredforthecashflowsexpectedonthemConsequently,perceptionsofvaluehavetobebackedupbyreality,whichimpliesthatthepricepaidforanyassetshouldreflectthecashflowsthatitisexpectedtogenerateThemodelsofvaluationdescribedinthisbookattempttorelatevaluetothelevelandexpectedgrowthinthesecashflowsTherearemanyareasinvaluationwherethereisroomfordisagreement,includinghowtoestimatetruevalueandhowlongitwilltakeforpricestoadjusttotruevalueButthereisonepointonwhichtherecanbenodisagreementAssetpricescannotbejustifiedbymerelyusingtheargumentthattherewillbeotherinvestorsaroundwillingtopayahigherpriceinthefutureGeneralitiesaboutValuationLikeallanalyticaldisciplines,valuationhasdevelopeditsownsetofmythsovertimeThissectionexaminesanddebunkssomeofthesemythsMyth:Sincevaluationmodelsarequantitative,valuationisobjectiveValuationisneitherthesciencethatsomeofitsproponentsmakeitouttobenortheobjectivesearchforthetruevaluethatidealistswouldlikeittobecomeThemodelsthatweuseinvaluationmaybequantitative,buttheinputsleaveplentyofroomforsubjectivejudgmentsThus,thefinalvaluethatweobtainfromthesemodelsiscoloredbythebiasthatwebringintotheprocessInfact,inmanyvaluations,thepricegetssetfirstandthevaluationfollowsTheobvioussolutionistoeliminateallbiasbeforestartingonavaluation,butthisiseasiersaidthandoneGiventheexposurewehavetoexternalinformation,analysesandopinionsaboutafirm,itisunlikelythatweembarkonmostvaluationswithoutsomebiasTherearetwowaysofreducingthebiasintheprocessThefirstistoavoidtakingstrongpublicpositionsonthevalueofafirmbeforethevaluationiscompleteInfartoomanycases,thedecisiononwhetherafirmisunderorovervaluedprecedestheactualvaluation,leadingtoseriouslybiasedanalysesThesecondistominimizethestakewehaveinwhetherthefirmisunderorovervalued,priortothevaluationInstitutionalconcernsalsoplayaroleindeterminingtheextentofbiasinvaluationForinstance,itisanacknowledgedfactthatequityresearchanalystsaremorelikelytoissuebuyratherthansellrecommendations,ie,thattheyaremorelikelytofindfirmstobeundervaluedthanovervaluedThiscanbetracedpartlytothedifficultiestheyfaceinobtainingaccessandcollectinginformationonfirmsthattheyhaveissuedsellrecommendationsandtothepressurethattheyfacefromportfoliomanagers,someofwhommighthavelargepositionsinthestockInrecentyears,thistrendhasbeenexacerbatedbythepressureonequityresearchanalyststodeliverinvestmentbankingbusinessWhenusingavaluationdonebyathirdparty,thebiasesoftheanalyst(s)doingthevaluationshouldbeconsideredbeforedecisionsaremadeonitsbasisForinstance,aselfvaluationdonebyatargetfirminatakeoverislikelytobepositivelybiasedWhilethisdoesnotmakethevaluationworthless,itsuggeststhattheanalysisshouldbeviewedwithskepticismTheBiasesinEquityResearchThelinesbetweenequityresearchandsalesmanshipblurmostinperiodsthatarecharacterizedby“irrationalexuberance”Inthelates,theextraordinarysurgeofmarketvaluesinthecompaniesthatcomprisedtheneweconomysawalargenumberofequityresearchanalysts,especiallyonthesellside,stepoutoftheirrolesasanalystsandbecomecheerleadersforthesestocksWhiletheseanalystsmighthavebeenwellmeaningintheirrecommendations,thefactthattheinvestmentbanksthattheyworkedforwereleadingthechargeonnewinitialpublicofferingsfromthesefirmsexposedthemtochargesofbiasandworseThisismostvisibleintakeovers,wherethedecisiontoacquireafirmoftenseemstoprecedethevaluationofthefirmItshouldcomeasnosurprise,therefore,thattheanalysisalmostinvariablysupportsthedecisionInmostyears,buyrecommendationsoutnumbersellrecommendationsbyamarginoftentooneInrecentyears,thistrendhasbecomeevenstrongerIn,thecrashinthemarketvaluesofneweconomystocksandtheanguishedcriesofinvestorswhohadlostwealthinthecrashcreatedafirestormofcontroversyTherewerecongressionalhearingwherelegislatorsdemandedtoknowwhatanalystsknewaboutthecompaniestheyrecommendedandwhentheyknewit,statementsfromtheSECabouttheneedforimpartialityinequityresearchanddecisionstakenbysomeinvestmentbankingtocreateatleasttheappearanceofobjectivityAtthetimethisbookwenttopress,bothMerrillLynchandCSFBhaddecidedthattheirequityresearchanalystscouldnolongerholdstockincompaniesthattheycoveredUnfortunately,therealsourceofbias–theinterminglingofinvestmentbankingbusinessandinvestmentadvice–wasleftuntouchedShouldtherebegovernmentregulationofequityresearchWedonotbelievethatitwouldbewise,sinceregulationtendstobeheavyhandedandcreatessidecoststhatseemtoquicklyexceedthebenefitsAmuchmoreeffectiveresponsecanbedeliveredbyportfoliomanagersandinvestorsTheequityresearchoffirmsthatcreatethepotentialforbiasshouldbediscountedor,inegregiouscases,evenignoredMyth:AwellresearchedandwelldonevaluationistimelessThevalueobtainedfromanyvaluationmodelisaffectedbyfirmspecificaswellasmarketwideinformationAsaconsequence,thevaluewillchangeasnewinformationisrevealedGiventheconstantflowofinformationintofinancialmarkets,avaluationdoneonafirmagesquickly,andhastobeupdatedtoreflectcurrentinformationThisinformationmaybespecifictothefirm,affectanentiresectororalterexpectationsforallfirmsinthemarketThemostcommonexampleoffirmspecificinformationisanearningsreportthatcontainsnewsnotonlyaboutafirm’sperformanceinthemostrecenttimeperiodbut,moreimportantly,aboutthebusinessmodelthatthefirmhasadoptedThedramaticdropinvalueofmanyneweconomystocksfromtocanbetraced,atleastpartially,totherealizationthatthesefirmshadbusinessmodelsthatcoulddelivercustomersbutnotearnings,eveninthelongtermInsomecases,newinformationcanaffectthevaluationsofallfirmsinasectorThus,pharmaceuticalcompaniesthatwerevaluedhighlyinearly,ontheassumptionthatthehighgrowthfromtheeightieswouldcontinueintothefuture,werevaluedmuchlessinearly,astheprospectsofhealthreformandpricecontrolsdimmedfutureprospectsWiththebenefitofhindsight,thevaluationsofthesecompanies(andtheanalystrecommendations)madeincanbecriticized,buttheywerereasonable,giventheinformationavailableatthattimeFinally,informationaboutthestateoftheeconomyandthelevelofinterestratesaffectallvaluationsinaneconomyAweakeningintheeconomycanleadtoareassessmentofgrowthratesacrosstheboard,thoughtheeffectonearningsarelikelytobelargestatcyclicalfirmsSimilarly,anincreaseininterestrateswillaffectallinvestments,thoughtovaryingdegreesWhenanalystschangetheirvaluations,theywillundoubtedlybeaskedtojustifythemInsomecases,thefactthatvaluationschangeovertimeisviewedasaproblemThebestresponsemaybetheonethatLordKeynesgavewhenhewascriticizedforchanginghispositiononamajoreconomicissue:“Whenthefactschange,IchangemymindAndwhatdoyoudo,sir”Myth:AgoodvaluationprovidesapreciseestimateofvalueEvenattheendofthemostcarefulanddetailedvaluation,therewillbeuncertaintyaboutthefinalnumbers,coloredastheyarebytheassumptionsthatwemakeaboutthefutureofthecompanyandtheeconomyItisunrealistictoexpectordemandabsolutecertaintyinvaluation,sincecashflowsanddiscountratesareestimatedwitherrorThisalsomeansthatyouhavetogiveyourselfareasonablemarginforerrorinmakingrecommendationsonthebasisofvaluationsThedegreeofprecisioninvaluationsislikelytovarywidelyacrossinvestmentsThevaluationofalargeandmaturecompany,withalongfinancialhistory,willusuallybemuchmoreprecisethanthevaluationofayoungcompany,inasectorthatisinturmoilIfthiscompanyhappenstooperateinanemergingmarket,withadditionaldisagreementaboutthefutureofthemarketthrownintothemix,theuncertaintyismagnifiedLaterinthisbook,wewillarguethatthedifficultiesassociatedwithvaluationcanberelatedtowhereafirmisinthelifecycleMaturefirmstendtobeeasiertovaluethangrowthfirms,andyoungstartupcompaniesaremoredifficulttovaluethancompanieswithestablishedproducesandmarketsTheproblemsarenotwiththevaluationmodelsweuse,though,butwiththedifficultieswerunintoinmakingestimatesforthefutureManyinvestorsandanalystsusetheuncertaintyaboutthefutureortheabsenceofinformationtojustifynotdoingfullfledgedvaluationsInreality,though,thepayofftovaluationisgreatestinthesefirmsMyth:Themorequantitativeamodel,thebetterthevaluationItmayseemobviousthatmakingamodelmorecompleteandcomplexshouldyieldbettervaluations,butitisnotnecessarilysoAsmodelsbecomemorecomplex,thenumberofinputsneededtovalueafirmincreases,bringingwithitthepotentialforinputerrorsTheseproblemsarecompoundedwhenmodelsbecomesocomplexthattheybecome‘blackboxes’whereanalystsfeedinnumbersintooneendandvaluationsemergefromtheotherAlltoooftentheblamegetsattachedtothemodelratherthantheanalystwhenavaluationfailsTherefrainbecomes“ItwasnotmyfaultThemodeldidit”TherearethreepointswewillemphasizeinthisbookonallvaluationThefirstistheprincipleofparsimony,whichessentiallystatesthatyoudonotusemoreinputsthanyouabsolutelyneedtovalueanassetThesecondisthatthethereisatradeoffbetweenthebenefitsofbuildinginmoredetailandtheestimationcosts(anderror)withprovidingthedetailThethirdisthatthemodelsdon’tvaluecompanies:youdoInaworldwheretheproblemthatweoftenfaceinvaluationsisnottoolittleinformationbuttoomuch,separatingtheinformationthatmattersfromtheinformationthatdoesnotisalmostasimportantasthevaluationmodelsandtechniquesthatyouusetovalueafirmMyth:Tomakemoneyonvaluation,youhavetoassumethatmarketsareinefficientImplicitoftenintheactofvaluationistheassumptionthatmarketsmakemistakesandthatwecanfindthesemistakes,oftenusinginformationthattensofthousandsofotherinvestorscanaccessThus,theargument,thatthosewhobelievethatmarketsareinefficientshouldspendtheirtimeandresourcesonvaluationwhereasthosewhobelievethatmarketsareefficientshouldtakethemarketpriceasthebestestimateofvalue,seemstobereasonableThisstatement,though,doesnotreflecttheinternalcontradictionsinbothpositionsThosewhobelievethatmarketsareefficientmaystillfeelthatvaluationhassomethingtocontribute,especiallywhentheyarecalledupontovaluetheeffectofachangeinthewayafirmisrunortounderstandwhymarketpriceschangeovertimeFurthermore,itisnotclearhowmarketswouldbecomeefficientinthefirstplace,ifinvestorsdidnotattempttofindunderandovervaluedstocksandtradeonthesevaluationsInotherwords,apreconditionformarketefficiencyseemstobetheexistenceofmillionsofinvestorswhobelievethatmarketsarenotOntheotherhand,thosewhobelievethatmarketsmakemistakesandbuyorsellstocksonthatbasisultimatelymustbelievethatmarketswillcorrectthesemistakes,iebecomeefficient,becausethatishowtheymaketheirmoneyThisisafairlyselfservingdefinitionofinefficiency–marketsareinefficientuntilyoutakealargepositioninthestockthatyoubelievetobemispricedbuttheybecomeefficientafteryoutakethepositionWeapproachtheissueofmarketefficiencyaswaryskepticsOntheonehand,webelievethatmarketsmakemistakesbut,ontheother,findingthesemistakesrequiresacombinationofskillandluckThisviewofmarketsleadsustothefollowingconclusionsFirst,ifsomethinglookstoogoodtobetrue–astocklooksobviouslyundervaluedorovervalued–itisprobablynottrueSecond,whenthevaluefromananalysisissignificantlydifferentfromthemarketprice,westartoffwiththepresumptionthatthemarketiscorrectandwehavetoconvinceourselvesthatthisisnotthecasebeforeweconcludethatsomethingisoverorundervaluedThishigherstandardmayleadustobemorecautiousinfollowingthroughonvaluationsGiventhehistoricdifficultyofbeatingthemarket,thisisnotanundesirableoutcomeMyth:Theproductofvaluation(ie,thevalue)iswhatmattersTheprocessofvaluationisnotimportantAsvaluationmodelsareintroducedinthisbook,thereistheriskoffocusingexclusivelyontheoutcome,ie,thevalueofthecompany,andwhetheritisunderorovervalued,andmissingsomevaluableinsightsthatcanbeobtainedfromtheprocessofthevaluationTheprocesscantellusagreatdealaboutthedeterminantsofvalueandhelpusanswersomefundamentalquestionsWhatistheappropriatepricetopayforhighgrowthWhatisabrandnameworthHowimportantisittoimprovereturnsonprojectsWhatistheeffectofprofitmarginsonvalueSincetheprocessissoinformative,eventhosewhobelievethatmarketsareefficient(andthatthemarketpriceisthereforethebestestimateofvalue)shouldbeabletofindsomeuseforvaluationmodelsTheRoleofValuationValuationisusefulinawiderangeoftasksTheroleitplays,however,isdifferentindifferentarenasThefollowingsectionlaysouttherelevanceofvaluationinportfoliomanagement,acquisitionanalysisandcorporatefinanceValuationandPortfolioManagementTherolethatvaluationplaysinportfoliomanagementisdeterminedinlargepartbytheinvestmentphilosophyoftheinvestorValuationplaysaminimalroleinportfoliomanagementforapassiveinvestor,whereasitplaysalargerroleforanactiveinvestorEvenamongactiveinvestors,thenatureandtheroleofvaluationisdifferentfordifferenttypesofactiveinvestmentMarkettimersusevaluationmuchlessthaninvestorswhopickstocks,andthefocusisonmarketvaluationratherthanonfirmspecificvaluationAmongsecurityselectors,valuationplaysacentralroleinportfoliomanagementforfundamentalanalystsandaperipheralrolefortechnicalanalystsThefollowingsubsectiondescribes,inbroadterms,differentinvestmentphilosophiesandtheroleplayedbyvaluationineachFundamentalAnalysts:Theunderlyingthemeinfundamentalanalysisisthatthetruevalueofthefirmcanberelatedtoitsfinancialcharacteristicsitsgrowthprospects,riskprofileandcashflowsAnydeviationfromthistruevalueisasignthatastockisunderorovervaluedIti

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