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首页 7- 凯恩斯方案--英文原文.doc

7- 凯恩斯方案--英文原文.doc

7- 凯恩斯方案--英文原文.doc

上传者: 静谧的池塘 2012-12-16 评分 0 0 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《7- 凯恩斯方案--英文原文doc》,可适用于经济金融领域,主题内容包含Keynes,GlobalImbalances,andInternationalMonetaryReform,Today凯恩斯、全球失衡与当今国际货符等。

Keynes,GlobalImbalances,andInternationalMonetaryReform,Today凯恩斯、全球失衡与当今国际货币体系改革RobertSkidelskyandVijayJoshi罗伯特斯基德尔斯基维杰乔希RebalancingtheGlobalEconomy:APrimer启蒙书雷管底漆引线forPolicymakingbyStijnClaessens,SimonEvenettandBernardHoekman(eds)|Wednesday,June,ThischapterarguesthattheKeynesPlanoffordealingwiththetradeimbalancesofhistimeishighlyrelevanttotheproblemofEastAsianUSimbalancestodayJustasthefirstBrettonWoodssystemrestedona“grandbargain”betweentheUSandBritain,anewBrettonWoodswouldtestthestatesmanshipoftheUSandChinaTheProblemofGlobalImbalancesAstheworldtentativelyscrambles快速爬行匍匐前进攀登outoftheworstrecessionsinceWorldWarII,thefutureoftheworldmonetarysystemremainsfirmlyofftheagendaTheglobaldownturnhadmanyinteractingcauses,butatenable 站得住脚的合理的viewisthattheaccumulationofreservesbyahandfulofcountriesinEastAsiaandtheMiddleEastplayedakeypermissiveroleinthecollapseBetweenand(measurable)globalreservesincreasedfrom$trillionto$trillion–anaverageannualrateofincreaseofabout,atatimewhenglobalGDPgrewatanannualrateofThisamountedtoabigincreaseindeflationarypressureHowever,thefactthatthereserveswereheldmainlyindollarsallowedtheUStoavoiddeflation,andinsteadruna“Keynesian”domesticpolicywhichsetthestageforanunsustainableassetandconsumptionboomInshort,therewasanexusconnectingreserveaccumulationbyChinaandexpansionarymonetaryandfiscalpolicyintheUSThepurposeofthischapteristohowthattheKeynesPlanoffordealingwiththetradeimbalancesofhistimeishighlyrelevanttotheproblemofEastAsianUSimbalancestodayItproposestwomechanismsforalleviatingthecurrentproblemof“symmetricalnonadjustment”ThefirstpartoftheessaywillexaminethehistoricalcontextoftheKeynesPlanandthebreakdownoftheBrettonWoodssystemthesecondwillanalysethepresentproblemofnonadjustmentandstepswhichcanbetakentoovercomeitTheKeynesPlanofInthesKeyneshadcometoseedeflationasthemaincauseofBritishunemploymentandthemainsourceofdeflationarypressureastheunbalancedcreditorpositionoftheUSIntheory,theinternationalgoldstandard,whichwasthecurrencyregimeofthetimeprovidedforautomaticandsymmetricaladjustmentofcurrentaccountimbalancesPriceswouldautomaticallyriseinthegoldgainingcountriesandwouldautomaticallyfallinthegoldlosingcountries,thusrestoringtheequilibriumofexportsandimportsbetweenthetwoButKeyneshadcometorealise,asheputitin,thatadjustmentwas“compulsoryforthedebtorandvoluntaryforthecreditor”Ifthecreditordoesnotchoosetomake,orallow,hisshareoftheadjustment,hesuffersnoinconvenience:whileacountry’sreservecannotfallbelowzero,thereisnoceilingwhichsetsanupperlimitThesameistrueifprivatecapitalflowsarethemeansofadjustment“Thedebtormustborrowthecreditorisunderno…compulsiontolend”DuringtheGreatDepressionitself,creditor“hoarding”hadbeenaggravatedbytheflightofcapitalfromdeficittosurpluscountriesFollowingthefinancialcrisisof,thegoldstandardcollapsed,theinternationalcapitalmarketseizeduptostopbeingabletomoveorworkinthenormalway无法转动故障,andthemajorcountriesresortedtotariffs,competitivedevaluations,andbilateraltradeagreementstobalancetheiraccountsTheinternationalpaymentssystemcreatedinthethcenturyceasedtofunctionKeynes’ClearingUnionplanofwasdesignedtoavoidarepetitionofthisdisasterItwouldretaintheadvantages(ashesawthem)ofafixedexchangeratesystemwhileavoidingtheasymmetriccostsofadjustmentTheessentialfeatureofhisplanwasthatcreditorcountrieswouldnotbeallowedtosterilisetheirsurpluses,orchargepunitiveratesofinterestforlendingthemoutratherthesesurpluseswouldbeautomaticallyavailableascheapoverdraft【透资】facilitiestodebtorsthroughthemechanismofaninternationalclearingbankwhosedepositorswerethecentralbanksoftheunionAllresidualinternationaltransactions–thosegivingrisetosurplusesanddeficits–weretobesettledthrough“clearingaccounts”heldbymembercentralbanksinanInternationalClearingBank(ICB)MemberbankscouldbuyforeigncurrenciesandselltheirownagainstdebitsandcreditstotheiraccountsattheICB(denominatedinbankmoneyor“bancor”)uptoan“indexquota”equaltohalftheaveragevalueoftheircountry’sinternationaltradeoverthepreviousfiveyearsDepositsofbankmoney(creditsanddebits)wouldbecreatedbysurplusesanddeficitsandextinguishedbytheirliquidationEachnationalcurrencywouldhaveafixedbutadjustablerelationtoaunitofbankmoney(bancor)whichitselfhadafixedrelationshiptogoldButthoughbancorcouldbeobtainedforgold,itwasnotconvertibleintogoldKeynes’longtermaimwastodemonetisegoldandmakebancortheultimatereserveassetofthesystemByincreasingorreducingthetotalofquotas,theBank’smanagerswouldbeabletovarythesupplyofbancorcontracyclicallyKeynessoughttosecurecreditoradjustmentwithoutrenouncingdebtordisciplineTothisendhisschemeaimedtobringasimultaneouspressureonbothsurplusanddeficitcountriesto“clear”theiraccountsPersistentcreditorcountrieswouldbeallowedorrequiredtorevaluetheircurrencies,unblockanyforeignownedinvestments,andbechargedrisingratesofinterest(uptopercent)oncreditsrunningaboveaquarteroftheirquotaAnycreditbalancesexceedingquotasattheendofayearwouldbeconfiscatedandtransferredtoaReserveFundPersistentdeficitcountrieswouldbeallowedorrequiredtodepreciatetheircurrencies,toselltheICBanyfreegold,andprohibitcapitalexportsTheywouldalsobechargedinterestonexcessivedebitsIfallcountrieswereinperfectbalanceattheyear’send,thesumofbancorbalanceswouldbeexactlyzeroTheKeynesplanwasvetoedbytheUS,whichwasnotpreparedtoallowits“hardearned”surplusestobeautomaticallyatthedisposalof“profligate”挥霍的放荡的debtorcountriesInsteadtheBrettonWoodsAgreementofsetupanInternationalMonetaryFundtoprovideshorttermfinancialassistanceforcountriesintemporarybalanceofpaymentsdifficultiesTheIMFwasafund,notabank,intowhichmemberswouldpaycontributionsorquotasmadeupofgoldanddomesticcurrencies(ThetotalresourcesoftheFundweresetat$bn,asopposedto$bnforKeynes’ICB)TheFundwouldsupplyforeigncurrenciestomembersuptothelimitoftheirquotas,providedtheycorrectedtheirdomesticpoliciesParvaluesofcurrencieswouldbefixedintermsofgold,whichcouldbealteredonlytocorrecta“fundamentaldisequilibrium”BoththeKeynesPlanandtheIMFsystemreliedoncapitalcontrolstopreventthedestabilisingflowsof“hotmoney”Thecrucialpointwasthat,whileacceptingtheideaoffixed,butadjustableexchangerates,theFundprovidednomechanismtostoppersistentreserveaccumulationItupheld支持维持赞同确认,thatis,theorthodoxdoctrineofdebtoradjustment,andtothatextentfailedtosolvetheKeynesproblemofpersistentcreditorhoardingThecontrastbetweenthetwoplanswasdeliberateForKeynesandtheBritish,theproblemwhichbroughtdownthegoldstandardinhadarisenfromtherefusalofthesurpluscountriestospendtheirsurplusesfortheAmericansithadarisenfromthemonetaryindisciplineofthedeficitcountriesTheBrettonWoodssysteminpracticeThattheBrettonWoodsfixedexchangeratesystem,whichlastedfromto,didnotreproducethedeflationarycharacteroftheinterwarsystem,wasduetothegeneralcommitmentofgovernmentstofullemploymentpoliciesbackedbythe“dishoarding”policiesoftheUSAmericafloodedthe“free”worldwithdollars,tosuchanextentthatbythelatesitwasstartingtorunabalanceoftradedeficititselfThebootwasnowontheotherfoot,buttheneedforthedeficitcountry(nowtheUSA)todeflatewascircumventedbytheroleofthedollarastheworld’smainreserveassetAsitstradedeficitwidened,theUSAprintedanincreasingquantityofdollarstocoveritsunrequited单方面的单相思的importsThesurpluscountriesaccumulatedAmericandollarliabilitieswhichtheyinvestedinUSTreasurybondsTheUSdidnothavetorestrictdomesticcreditbyraisinginterestratessincethedollarsitprintedcamebacktoitIntheabsenceofwhatwouldhavebeenamajordeflationaryforce,theworldeconomyboomedfortwentyyearsTheflawinthesystem,aspointedoutbyProfessorTriffinofYaleUniversity,wasthattheincreaseintheliabilitiesofthekeycurrencycountrywasboundtoraisedoubtsaboutitsabilitytoredeemtheseliabilitiesingoldAttheendofthes,theFrenchstartedconvertingtheirdollarreservesintogoldThisbroughtaboutthepredictedcollapseofthegoldexchangestandardinThedollarbecameinconvertibleAnewsupplementaryinternationalreservecurrency,SpecialDrawingRights(SDRs),hadbeensetup,butsincetherewasnomechanismforconvertingdollarbalancesintoSDRs,thedollarcontinuedtobetheworld’smainreserveassetinamixedworldoffloating,fixed,andmanagedexchangeratesIntheory,floatingexchangeratesremovetheneedforanyreservesatall,sincebalanceofpaymentsdeficitsandsurpluseswouldnotariseButtheneedforreservesunexpectedlysurvived,mainlytoguardagainstspeculativemovementsofhotmoneywhichcoulddriveexchangeratesawayfromtheirequilibriumvaluesThishappenedthroughoutthesStartinginthelates,aftertheEastAsianCrisis,EastAsiangovernmentsunilaterallyerecteda“BrettonWoodsII”,linkingtheircurrenciestothedollar,andholdingtheirreservesindollarsThisreproducedtheexpansionarybenefitsofBrettonWoodsI,butatthecostofanincreasinglyunbalancedreserveposition,asthedollarbecameprogressivelyovervaluedagainstthesupercompetitiverenminbiToday’sproblemofcurrentaccountimbalancesreproducestheproblemswhichbroughtdownboththeoldgoldstandardanditssuccessorBrettonWoodssystemThegoldstandardfailedtoprovideforthesymmetricadjustmentofsurplusesanddeficitsTheKeynesPlanwasdesignedtoreplaceasymmetricadjustmentwhichbroughtdeflationtothedeficitcountriesbydeliberateprovisionforsymmetricadjustmentthroughtheInternationalClearingUnionTheBrettonWoodssystemdidnotsolvetheKeynesproblemItupheldtheorthodoxdoctrineofdebtoradjustment,but,throughtheIMF,gavedebtorcountriestimeto“puttheirhousesinorder”toorganizesomethingwell摆放井然tosolveproblemsThedeflationarypressureagainstwhichtheKeynesplanwasdirectedwassolvednotbythemechanismshehadenvisaged,butbythevoluntary“dishoarding”ofitssurplusesbytheUSButthiscalledintoquestionthecredibilityofitspromisetoredeemdollarsforgoldToday’ssystemcanbecharacterisedasoneofsymmetricnonadjustment:aslongasthesurplusearningcountriesarecontenttoholdtheiraccumulatingreservesindollars,neithersideisunderanypressuretoadjustHowever,themainissuetodayisnolongerthe“sustainabilityofthedeficit”,butitseffectontheeconomiesofbothsurplusanddeficitcountriesAsequenceoffinancialboomsandbustsisbuiltintoasystemwhichbringsnopressureforadjustmenttobearoneithercreditorsortheprincipaldebtor(theUS)ThisisbothirrationalandcostlyUnlessstepsaretakentorebalanceglobalcurrentaccounts,wewillbewalkingintothenextcrisisTosecuretheautomaticadjustmentofcurrentaccountsurplusesanddeficitswastheobjectoftheKeynesPlanofThisshouldbethestartingpointofcontemporaryeffortstorebalancetheworld’smoneyThepresentnonsystemAswehavesuggested,globalimbalancesplayedapartincausingtheseverecreditcrunchofButtheyarealsodangerouspersebyorofitselfTheycanleadtodisorderlyreversalstriggeredbylargecapitalmovementsandtheycanalsoprovoketraderestrictionsItisafairbettobesomethingwhichislikelytohappenthatacontinuationoftheglobalimbalancesofwouldhaveledtoadollarcrisisoraprotectionistfrenzyifthecreditbubblehadnotimplodedfailsuddenlyandcompletelyandbeunabletooperatefirstTheimbalanceshavenowdecreasedbutcouldopenupagainwhentheworldeconomyrecoversTheythuscontinuetobeaseriouspotentialproblemToday’scircumstancesaredifferentfromKeynes’dayCapitalmobilityisnowmuchgreaterWedonothaveadjustablypeggedexchangeratesIndeed,thereisnownothingthatcanbecalledanexchangerate“system”ThereisinsteadawidediversityofexchangerateregimesThereservesystemisalsodifferentItiscentredonthedollar,notongoldTodaythedollaristheprincipalreservecurrency,withtheeuroinsecondplacebutfarbehindTherealsoexistsafiduciaryinternationalcentralbankmoney,theSDR,createdinthelates,butsofarofminorquantitativeimportanceButdespitethechangedenvironment,Keynes’insights,encapsulatedtoexpressorshowthemostimportantfactsaboutsomethinginhisClearingUnionproposals,arestillhighlyrelevanttoavoidingfutureimbalancesAnecessaryrequirementofsmoothinternationaladjustmentisawellfunctioningmechanismforchangingrealexchangeratesThatdoesnotcurrentlyexistManymajorcountriesarefloatingbutsome(notablyChina)arenotNonfloaterswhorunbalanceofpaymentssurplusesareabletoblockrealexchangeratechangesbysterilisingtheirreservesInternationaladjustmentalsoideallyrequiressomeinternationalcoordinationofmacroeconomicpolicies,atleastsporadicallyThisrequirementisconspicuousbyitsabsence(Thecooperativedemandstimulusinwasanexception)TheabsenceofasatisfactoryadjustmentmechanismhasresultedintherevivaloftheasymmetrystronglyemphasisedbyKeynesAdjustmentpressuresareconcentratedonthedeficitcountries(unlessthedeficitcountryisareserveissuerliketheUS)thecountriesinsurpluscangetawaywithoutadjustmentAcaseinpointisthatoftheemergingcountriesthathavediscoveredtheadvantagesofexportledgrowthThisstrategyhasyieldedmanybenefitsforthesecountriesbutitsuffersfromafallacyofcompositiontheexportsurplusesmusthavecounterpartdeficitselsewhereInotherwords,theycangenerateglobalimbalancesThecurrentreservesystemisequallyunsatisfactoryItisnotablethatgreatercapitalmobilityhasincreased,notreduced,thedemandforownedreservesManycountrieshavearationalfearoffloating,aswellasarationalfearofunstablecapitalflowsandreservesobtainedbyshorttermborrowingcanevaporateinacrisisThesurefirecertainorlikely,especiallytosucceedwayofaccumulatingownedreservesistoruncurrentaccountsurplusesEastAsiancountriesweretaughtthevalueofownedreservesbythebitterexperienceofandtherecentcrisishasonlyconfirmedthislessonButsubstantialreserveaccumulation,thoughrationalforanindividualcountry,issystemicnonsenseifpractisedbymanycountriesIndeeditleadspreciselytotheglobalimbalancesunderdiscussion:reservehoardersrunlargesurpluseswhileAmerica,themainreserveissuer,runslargedeficitsTheconnectionbetweenreserveaccumulationandglobalimbalancesisnotalogicalnecessityItispossibleinprincipleforcurrentaccountstobebalancedandreservestobegeneratedbypurelycapitalaccounttransactions,saylongtermforeigndirectinvestmentbytheUSmatchedbyshorttermdepositsbytherecipientcountriesinUSTreasuriesButasamatteroffact,therecentgrowthofthereservemountaindidpredominantlyhaveUScurrentaccountdeficitsasitscounterpartAndtheunderlyingbehaviouralconnectionhaspsychologicalandempiricalplausibility:the“exorbitant过度过分过高privilege”conferredbythepowertoissuereservesweakensbalanceofpaymentsdisciplineontheissuercountryandsoonerorlatertemptsittooverspendTheargumentthatcurrentaccountsurplusesaredeflationaryfortheworldisonlypartiallycorrectCertainlytheyaredeflationaryinthefirstinstanceforthedeficitcountriesButthedeficitcountriesarenowverylikelytobecommittedtofullemploymentSotheirprobableandunderstandablereactionisexpansionlargeimbalancesaretheconsequentialbyproductThisiscertainlyaplausibledescriptionofeventsinthemiddleofthisdecade:the“glut”使市场过分饱和,使市场供过于求ofsavingsinpartsoftheworldevokedaKeynesianexpansionaryresponseintheUS,whichwidenedglobalimbalancesOfcoursethedayofreckoningatimewhentheeffectofapastmistakeisexperiencedorwhenacrimeispunishedhastocomeintheendandhasthepotentialtobestronglydeflationaryfortheworldsincetheburdenofadjustmentwouldfallonthedeficitcountriesReformingthenonsystemWhatcanbedonetopreventglobalimbalancesCompleteoverhaultorepairorimprovesomethingsothateverypartofitworksasitshouldofthesystemisnotgoingtohappenButmajorimprovementsarepossiblethatwouldamelioratetheimbalancesproblemandenableanevolutionarydevelopmentoftheworldmonetarysysteminadesirablelongtermdirectionHereKeynes’ClearingUnionproposalsareveryrelevantWebeginwiththeadjustmentmechanismThisneedstobeimprovedwhateverreservesystemisadoptedIdeally,asseenabove,weneedbettermacroeconomiccoordinationaswellasabetterExchangeratesystemButthesearesubjectsofgreatcontentionwhicharenotgoingtoberesolvedeasilyorsoonAsecondbestbutmajorstepforwardwouldbetoadaptKeynes’ideaofpenaltiesonbancorimbalancesthecontemporaryequivalentwouldbetotaxpersistentandexcessivecurrentaccountsurplusesThenumericalspecificationof“excessive”and“persistent”wouldhavetobeagreedSowouldtherateoftaxtobepaidtotheIMF:itmustobviouslybebigenoughtoaffectbehaviourTaxingexcessivereserveaccumulationwouldbeaninferioralternativebecausetheconnectionbetweenreservesandthecurrentaccountisloosemoreover,reservescanbehiddeninvariouswaysWenowturntothereservesystemKeynesprescientlywantedtoabolishaltogethertheuseofnationalcurrenciesasinternationalreservesandsubstitute“bancor”intheirsteadSuchachangewouldstrikeattherootof摧毁、铲除theselfinsurancedemandfordollarsAnditwoulddosobyenablingcountriestoacquirefiduciaryreserveswhichtheyownbutdonothavetoearnsincetheywouldbesuppliedbyaninternationalcentralbankThisisabridgetoofartoreachquicklyButitwouldbepossibleanddesirabletotakeimmediatestepstoraisetheSDRshareofworldreserves,withinthecontextofadollarbasedreservesystemWhatisneededisanamendmentoftheIMFArticlestoenableSDRstobemoreflexiblycreatedbysubstantialregularemissions,aswellasbyoccasionalissuancetomeetworldliquiditycrises(tobefollowedbywithdrawalwhenthecrisisisover)MovingdecisivelytowardspromotingtheuseofSDRswouldreducetheneedforcountriestoruncurr

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