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首页 4- 债务—通缩理论--英文原文.pdf

4- 债务—通缩理论--英文原文.pdf

4- 债务—通缩理论--英文原文.pdf

上传者: 静谧的池塘 2012-12-16 评分 0 0 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《4- 债务—通缩理论--英文原文pdf》,可适用于经济金融领域,主题内容包含THEDEBTDEFLATIONTHEORYOFGREATDEPRESSIONSBYIRVINGFISHERINTRODUCTORYINBoomsa符等。

THEDEBTDEFLATIONTHEORYOFGREATDEPRESSIONSBYIRVINGFISHERINTRODUCTORYINBoomsandDepressions,Ihavedeveloped,theoreticallyandstatistically,whatmaybecalledadebtdeflationtheoryofgreatdepressionsInthepreface,Istatedthattheresults"seemlargelynew,"IspokethuscautiouslybecauseofmyunfamiliaritywiththevastliteratureonthesubjectSincethebookwaspublisheditsspecialconclusionshavebeenwidelyacceptedand,sofarasIknow,noonehasyetfoundthemanticipatedbypreviouswriters,thoughseveral,includingmyself,havezealouslysoughttofindsuchanticipationsTwoofthebestreadauthoritiesinthisfieldassuremethatthoseconclusionsare,inthewordsofoneofthem,"bothnewandimportant"Partlytospecifywhatsomeofthesespecialconclusionsarewhicharebelievedtobenewandpartlytofitthemintotheconclusionsofotherstudentsinthisfield,Iamofferingthispaperasembodying,inbrief,mypresent"creed"onthewholesubjectofsocalled"cycletheory"My"creed"consistsof"articles"someofwhichareoldandsomenewIsay"creed"because,forbrevity,itispurposelyexpresseddogmaticallyandwithoutproofButitisnotacreedinthesensethatmyfaithinitdoesnotrestonevidenceandthatIamnotreadytomodifyitonpresentationofnewevidenceOnthecontrary,itisquitetentativeItmayserveasachallengetoothersandasrawmaterialtohelpthemworkoutabetterproductMeanwhilethefollowingisalistofmytentativeconclusions"CYCLETHEORY"INGENERALTheeconomicsystemcontainsinnumerablevariablesquantitiesof"goods(physicalwealth,propertyrights,andservices),thepricesofthesegoods,andtheirvalues(thequantitiesmultipliedbytheprices)ChangesinanyorallofthisvastarrayofvariablesmaybeduetomanycausesOnlyinimaginationcanallofthesevariablesremainconstantandbekeptinequilibriumbythebalancedforcesofhumandesires,asmanifestedthrough"supplyanddemand"Economictheoryincludesastudybothof(a)suchimaginary,idealequilibriumwhichmaybestableorunstableand(b)disequilibriumTheformeriseconomicstaticsthelatter,economicdynamicsSocalledcycletheoryismerelyonepartofthestudyofeconomicdisequilibriumThestudyofdisequilibriummayproceedineitheroftwowaysECONOMETRICAWemaytakeasourunitforstudyanactualhistoricalcaseofgreatdisequilibrium,suchas,say,thepanicoforwemaytakeasourunitforstudyanyconstituenttendency,suchas,say,deflation,anddiscoveritsgenerallaws,relationsto,andcombinationswith,othertendenciesTheformerstudyrevolvesaroundevents,orfactsthelatter,aroundtendenciesTheformerisprimarilyeconomichistorythelatterisprimarilyeconomicscienceBothsortsofstudiesareproperandimportantEachhelpstheotherThepanicofcanonlybeunderstoodinthelightofthevarioustendenciesinvolveddeflationandotheranddeflationcanonlybeunderstoodinthelightofthevarioushistoricalmanifestationsandotherTheoldandapparentlystillpersistentnotionof"the"businesscycle,asasingle,simple,selfgeneratingcycle(analogoustothatofapendulumswingingunderinfluenceofthesingleforceofgravity)andasactuallyrealizedhistoricallyinregularlyrecurringcrises,isamythInsteadofoneforcetherearemanyforcesSpecifically,insteadofonecycle,therearemanycoexistingcycles,constantlyaggravatingorneutralizingeachother,aswellascoexistingwithmanynoncyclicalforcesInotherwords,whileacycle,conceivedasafact,orhistoricalevent,isnonexistent,therearealwaysinnumerablecycles,longandshort,bigandlittle,conceivedastendencies(aswellasnumerousnoncyclicaltendencies),anyhistoricaleventbeingtheresultantofallthetendenciesthenatworkAnyonecycle,howeverperfectandlikeasinecurveitmaytendtobe,issuretobeinterferedwithbyothertendenciesTheinnumerabletendenciesmakingmostlyforeconomicdisequilibriummayroughlybeclassifiedunderthreegroups:(a)growthortrendtendencies,whicharesteady(b)haphazarddisturbances,whichareunsteady(c)cyclicaltendencies,whichareunsteadybutsteadilyrepeatedTherearetwosortsofcyclicaltendenciesOneis"forced"orimposedontheeconomicmechanismfromoutsideSuchistheyearlyrhythmalsothedailyrhythmBoththeyearlyandthedailyrhythmareimposedonusbyastronomicalforcesfromoutsidetheeconomicorganizationandtheremaybeotherssuchasfromsunspotsortransitsofVenusOtherexamplesof"forced"cyclesarethemonthlyandweeklyrhythmsimposedonusbycustomandreligionThesecondsortofcyclicaltendencyisthe"free"cycle,notforcedfromoutside,butselfgenerating,operatinganalogouslytoapendulumorwavemotionItisthe"free"typeofcyclewhichisapparentlyuppermostinthemindsofmostpeoplewhentheytalkof"the"businesscycleTheyearlycycle,thoughitmorenearlyapproachesaperfectcyclethanIRVINGFISHERanyother,isseldomthoughtofasacycleatallbutreferredtoas"seasonalvariation"Theremaybeequilibriumwhich,thoughstable,issodelicatelypoisedthat,afterdeparturefromitbeyondcertainlimits,instabilityensues,justas,atfirst,astickmaybendunderstrain,readyallthetimetobendback,untilacertainpointisreached,whenitbreaksThissimileprobablyapplieswhenadebtorgets"broke,"orwhenthebreakingofmanydebtorsconstitutesa"crash,"afterwhichthereisnocomingbacktotheoriginalequilibriumTotakeanothersimile,suchadisasterissomewhatlikethe"capsizing"ofashipwhich,underordinaryconditions,isalwaysnearstableequilibriumbutwhich,afterbeingtippedbeyondacertainangle,hasnolongerthistendencytoreturntoequilibrium,but,instead,atendencytodepartfurtherfromitWemaytentativelyassumethat,ordinarilyandwithinwidelimits,all,oralmostall,economicvariablestend,inageneralway,towardastableequilibriumInourclassroomexpositionsofsupplyanddemandcurves,weveryproperlyassumethatiftheprice,say,ofsugarisabovethepointatwhichsupplyanddemandareequal,ittendstofallandifbelow,toriseUndersuchassumptions,andtakingaccountof"economicfriction,"whichisalwayspresent,itfollowsthat,unlesssomeoutsideforceintervenes,any"free"oscillationsaboutequilibriummusttendprogressivelytogrowsmallerandsmaller,justasarockingchairsetinmotiontendstostopThatis,while"forced"cycles,suchasseasonal,tendtocontinueunabatedinamplitude,ordinary"free"cyclestendtocease,givingwaytoequilibriumButtheexactequilibriumthussoughtisseldomreachedandneverlongmaintainedNewdisturbancesare,humanlyspeaking,suretooccur,sothat,inactualfact,anyvariableisalmostalwaysaboveorbelowtheidealequilibriumForexample,coffeeinBrazilmaybeoverproduced,thatis,maybemorethanitwouldhavebeeniftheproducershadknowninadvancethatitcouldnothavebeensoldataprofitOrtheremaybeashortageinthecottoncropOrfactory,orcommercialinventoriesmaybeunderorovertheequilibriumpointTheoreticallytheremaybeinfact,atmosttimestheremustbeoverorunderproduction,overorunderconsumption,overorunderspending,overorundersaving,overorunderinvestment,andoverorundereverythingelseItisasabsurdtoassumethat,foranylongperiodoftime,thevariablesintheeconomicorganization,oranypartofthem,will"stayput,"inperfectequilibrium,astoassumethattheAtlanticOceancaneverbewithoutawaveTheimportantvariableswhichmay,andordinarilydo,standECONOMETRICAaboveorbelowequilibriumare:(a)capitalitems,suchashomes,factories,ships,productivecapacitygenerally,inventories,gold,money,credits,anddebts(b)incomeitems,suchasrealincome,volumeoftrade,sharestraded(c)priceitems,suchaspricesofsecurities,commodities,interestTheremayevenbeageneraloverproductionandineitheroftwosenses:(a)theremaybe,ingeneral,ataparticularpointoftime,overlargeinventoriesorstocksonhand,or(b)theremaybe,ingeneral,duringaparticularperiodoftime,anoverrapidflowofproductionTheclassicalnotionthatoverproductioncanonlyberelativeasbetweendifferentproductsiserroneousAsidefromtheabundanceorscarcityofparticularproducts,relativetoeachother,productionasawholeisrelativetohumandesiresandaversions,andcanasawholeovershootorundershoottheequilibriummarkInfact,exceptforbriefmoments,theremustalwaysbesomedegreeofgeneraloverproductionorgeneralunderproductionandinbothsensesstockandflowBut,inpractice,generaloverproduction,aspopularlyimagined,hasnever,sofarasIcandiscover,beenachiefcauseofgreatdisequilibriumThereason,orareason,forthecommonnotionofoverproductionismistakingtoolittlemoneyfortoomuchgoodsWhileanydeviationfromequilibriumofanyeconomicvariabletheoreticallymay,anddoubtlessinpracticedoes,setupsomesortofoscillations,theimportantquestionis:WhichofthemhavebeensufficientlygreatdisturberstoaffordanysubstantialexplanationofthegreatboomsanddepressionsofhistoryIamnotsufficientlyfamiliarwiththelongdetailedhistoryofthesedisturbances,norwiththecolossalliteratureconcerningtheirallegedexplanations,tohavereachedanydefinitiveconclusionsastotherelativeimportanceofalltheinfluencesatworkIameagertolearnfromothersAccordingtomypresentopinion,whichispurelytentative,thereissomegrainoftruthinmostoftheallegedexplanationscommonlyoffered,butthisgrainisoftensmallAnyofthemmaysufficetoexplainsmalldisturbances,butallofthemputtogetherhaveprobablybeeninadequatetoexplainbigdisturbancesInparticular,asexplanationsofthesocalledbusinesscycle,orcycles,whenthesearereallyserious,Idoubttheadequacyofoverproduction,underconsumption,overcapacity,pricedislocation,maladjustmentbetweenagriculturalandindustrialprices,overconfidence,overinvestment,oversaving,overspending,andthediscrepancybetweensavingandinvestmentIventuretheopinion,subjecttocorrectiononsubmissionofIRVINGFISHERfutureevidence,that,inthegreatboomsanddepressions,eachoftheabovenamedfactorshasplayedasubordinateroleascomparedwithtwodominantfactors,namelyoverindebtednesstostartwithanddeflationfollowingsoonafteralsothatwhereanyoftheotherfactorsdobecomeconspicuous,theyareoftenmerelyeffectsorsymptomsofthesetwoInshort,thebigbadactorsaredebtdisturbancesandpriceleveldisturbancesWhilequitereadytochangemyopinion,Ihave,atpresent,astrongconvictionthatthesetwoeconomicmaladies,thedebtdiseaseandthepriceleveldisease(ordollardisease),are,inthegreatboomsanddepressions,moreimportantcausesthanallothersputtogether,SomeoftheotherandusuallyminorfactorsoftenderivesomeimportancewhencombinedwithoneorbothofthetwodominantfactorsThusoverinvestmentandoverspeculationareoftenimportantbuttheywouldhavefarlessseriousresultsweretheynotconductedwithborrowedmoneyThatis,overindebtednessmaylendimportancetooverinvestmentortooverspeculationThesameistrueastooverconfidenceIfancythatoverconfidenceseldomdoesanygreatharmexceptwhen,as,andif,itbeguilesitsvictimsintodebtAnotherexampleisthemaladjustmentbetweenagriculturalandindustrialprices,whichcanbeshowntobearesultofachangeinthegeneralpricelevelDisturbancesinthesetwofactorsdebtandthepurchasingpowerofthemonetaryunitwillsetupseriousdisturbancesinall,ornearlyall,othereconomicvariablesOntheotherhand,ifdebtanddeflationareabsent,otherdisturbancesarepowerlesstobringoncrisescomparableinseveritytothoseof,,orTHEROLESOFDEBTANDDEFLATIONNoexhaustivelistcanbegivenofthesecondaryvariablesaffectedbythetwoprimaryones,debtanddeflationbuttheyincludeespeciallyseven,makinginallatleastninevariables,asfollows:debts,circulatingmedia,theirvelocityofcirculation,pricelevels,networths,profits,trade,businessconfidence,interestratesThechiefinterrelationsbetweentheninechieffactorsmaybederiveddeductively,assuming,tostartwith,thatgeneraleconomicequilibriumisdisturbedbyonlytheonefactorofoverindebtedness,and,inparticular,assumingthatthereisnootherinfluence,whetheraccidentalordesigned,tendingtoaffectthepricelevelAssuming,accordingly,that,atsomepointoftime,astateofoverindebtednessexists,thiswilltendtoleadtoliquidation,throughECONOMETRICAthealarmeitherofdebtorsorcreditorsorbothThenwemaydeducethefollowingchainofconsequencesinninelinks:()Debtliquidationleadstodistresssettingandto()Contractionofdepositcurrency,asbankloansarepaidoff,andtoaslowingdownofvelocityofcirculationThiscontractionofdepositsandoftheirvelocity,precipitatedbydistressselling,causes()Afallinthelevelofprices,inotherwords,aswellingofthedollarAssuming,asabovestated,thatthisfallofpricesisnotinterferedwithbyreflationorotherwise,theremustbe()Astillgreaterfallinthenetworthsofbusiness,precipitatingbankruptciesand()Alikefallinprofits,whichina"capitalistic,"thatis,aprivateprofitsociety,leadstheconcernswhicharerunningatalosstomake()Areductioninoutput,intradeandinemploymentoflaborTheselosses,bankruptcies,andunemployment,leadto()Pessimismandlossofconfidence,whichinturnleadto()HoardingandslowingdownstillmorethevelocityofcirculationTheaboveeightchangescause()Complicateddisturbancesintheratesofinterest,inparticular,afallinthenominal,ormoney,ratesandariseinthereal,orcommodity,ratesofinterestEvidentlydebtanddeflationgofartowardexplainingagreatmassofphenomenainaverysimplelogicalwayTheabovechainofcauses,consistingofninelinks,includesonlyafewoftheinterrelationsbetweentheninefactorsThereareotherdemonstrableinterrelations,bothrationalandempirical,anddoubtlessstillotherswhichcannot,yet,atleast,beformulatedatallTheremustalsobemanyindirectrelationsinvolvingvariablesnotincludedamongtheninegroupsOneofthemostimportantofsuchinterrelations(andprobablytoolittlestressedinmyBoomsandDepressions)isthedirecteffectoflessenedmoney,deposits,andtheirvelocity,incurtailingtrade,asevidencedbythefactthattradehasbeenrevivedlocallybyemergencymoneywithoutanyraisingofthepricelevelInactualchronology,theorderofthenineeventsissomewhatdifferentfromtheabove"logical"order,andtherearereactionsandrepeatedeffectsAsstatedinAppendixIofBoomsandDepressions:Thefollowingtableofourninefactory,occurringandrecurring(togetherwithdistressselling),givesafairlytypical,thoughstillinadequate,pictureoftheManyoftheseinterrelationshavebeenshownstatistically,andbymanywritersSome,whichIhavesoshownandwhichfitinwiththedebtdeflationtheory,are:thatpricechange,afteradistributedlag,causes,orisfollowedby,correspondingfluctuationsinthevolumeoftrade,employment,bankruptcies,andrateofinterestTheresultsastopricechangeandunemploymentarecontainedinChartsIIandIII,ppSeereferencesattheendofthisarticlealsofootnote,page,regardingthechartsIRVINGFISHERcrosscurrentsofadepressionintheapproximateorderinwhichitisbelievedtheyusuallyoccur(ThefirstoccurrenceofeachfactoranditssubdivisionsisindicatedbyitalicsThefiguresinparenthesisshowthesequenceintheoriginalexposition)I()MildGloomandShocktoConfidence()SlightlyReducedVelocityofCirculation()DebtLiquidationII()MoneyInterestonSafeLoansFalls()ButMoneyInterestonUnsafeLoansRisesIII()DistressSelling()MoreGloom()FallinSecurityPrices()MoreLiquidation()FallinCommodityPricesIV()RealInterestRisesREALDEBTSINCREASE()MorePessimismandDistrust()MoreLiquidation()MoreDistressSelling()MoreReductioninVelocityV()MoreDistressSelling()ContractionofDepositCurrency()FurtherDollarEnlargementVI()ReductioninNetWorth()IncreaseinBankruptcies()MorePessimismandDistrust()MoreSlowinginVelocity()MoreLiquidationVII()DecreaseinProfits()IncreaseinLosses()IncreaseinPessimism()SlowerVelocity()MoreLiquidation()ReductioninVolumeofStockTradingVIII()DecreaseinConstruction()ReductioninOutput()ReductioninTrade()Unemployment()MorePessimismIX()HoardingX()RunsonBanks()BanksCurtailingLoansforSelfProtection()BanksSellingInvestments()BankFailures()DistrustGrows()MoreHoarding()MoreLiquidation()MoreDistressSelling()FurtherDollarEnlargementECONOMETRICAAshasbeenstated,thisorder(oranyorder,forthatmatter)canbeonlyapproximateandsubjecttovariationsatdifferenttimesandplacesItrepresentsmypresentguessastohow,ifnottoomuchinterferedwith,theninefactorsselectedforexplicitstudyinthisbookarelikelyinmostcasestofallinlineBut,ashasalsobeenstated,theideaofasinglelinesuccessionisitselfinadequate,forwhileFactor()actson(),forinstance,italsoactsdirectlyon(),sothatwereallyneedapictureofsubdividingstreamsor,better,aninteractingnetworkinwhicheachfactormaybepicturedasinfluencingandbeinginfluencedbymanyoralloftheothersParagraphabovegivesalogical,andparagraphachronological,orderofthechiefvariablesputoutofjointinadepressionwhenoncestartedbyoverindebtednessButitshouldbenotedthat,exceptforthefirstandlastinthe"logical"list,namelydebtandinterestondebts,allthefluctuationslistedcomeaboutthroughafallofpricesWhenoverindebtednessstandsalone,thatis,doesnotleadtoafallofprices,inotherwords,whenitstendencytodosoiscounteractedbyinflationaryforces(whetherbyaccidentordesign),theresulting"cycle"willbefarmilderandfarmoreregularLikewise,whenadeflationoccursfromotherthandebtcausesandwithoutanygreatvolumeofdebt,theresultingevilsaremuchlessItisthecombinationofboththedebtdiseasecomingfirst,thenprecipitatingthedollardiseasewhichworksthegreatesthavocThetwodiseasesactandreactoneachotherPathologistsarenowdiscoveringthatapairofdiseasesaresometimesworsethaneitherorthanthemeresumofboth,sotospeakAndweallknowthataminordiseasemayleadtoamajoroneJustasabadcoldleadstopneumonia,sooverindebtednessleadstodeflationAnd,viceversa,deflationcausedbythedebtreactsonthedeb

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