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首页 3- 通货膨胀经济学--英文原文.pdf

3- 通货膨胀经济学--英文原文.pdf

3- 通货膨胀经济学--英文原文.pdf

上传者: 静谧的池塘 2012-12-16 评分 0 0 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《3- 通货膨胀经济学--英文原文pdf》,可适用于经济金融领域,主题内容包含TheEconomicsofInflationbyCBrescianiTurroniMillicentESayersReviewby:JoanRob符等。

TheEconomicsofInflationbyCBrescianiTurroniMillicentESayersReviewby:JoanRobinsonTheEconomicJournal,Vol,No(Sep,),ppPublishedby:BlackwellPublishingfortheRoyalEconomicSocietyStableURL:http:wwwjstororgstableAccessed::YouruseoftheJSTORarchiveindicatesyouracceptanceoftheTermsConditionsofUse,availableathttp:wwwjstororgpageinfoaboutpoliciestermsjspJSTORisanotforprofitservicethathelpsscholars,researchers,andstudentsdiscover,use,andbuilduponawiderangeofcontentinatrusteddigitalarchiveWeuseinformationtechnologyandtoolstoincreaseproductivityandfacilitatenewformsofscholarshipFormoreinformationaboutJSTOR,pleasecontactsupportjstororgBlackwellPublishingandRoyalEconomicSocietyarecollaboratingwithJSTORtodigitize,preserveandextendaccesstoTheEconomicJournalhttp:wwwjstororgBRESCIANITURRONI:THEECONOMICSOFINFLATIONonthebalanceofpaymentsleadstoacreditpolicywhichkeepsunemploymentconsiderableOnecannotthensaythat"theeconomyhasadapteditselftotheexistenceofacontinuoustransfer"'ApainfuladaptationmaybeavoidedthrougharestrictionofcapitalexportsandanexpansionofdomesticinvestmentIhavemadethesecriticalobservationsinthebeliefthatProfessorHaberler'sbookwillbeneededasatextbookinmanyuniversities,andthatneweditionswillbecalledforWhenthishappens,theauthormightdowelltodivideitintotwovolumes,onedealingwiththetheoryofinternationaltrade,theotherwiththetheoryandpracticeofcommercialpolicyThedemandforarevisededition,particularlyofthesecondvolume,islikelytoremainlargeBERTILOHLINTheEconomicsofInflationByCBRESCIANITURRONITranslatedbyMILLICENTESAYERS(London:AllenandUnwin,Pps)PROFESSORBRESCIANITURRONI'Swork,nowmadeavailableinanexcellenttranslation,willbeofgreatvaluetoEnglishstudentsofinflation,althoughsevenyearsafteritsoriginalpublicationithasasomewhatoldfashionedairTheoreticaldiscussionofthegreatGermaninflationwasforalongtimecloudedbypoliticalprejudicesTheGermanwritersregardedreparationspaymentsastheprimarysourceofthetrouble,andconsequentlyarguedthatthecollapseofthemarkexchangewasthecauseoftheinflation(Inflationishereusedinapurelydescriptivesense,tomeananinordinatelygreatriseinprices,withoutanyquestionbeggingtheoreticalsignificanceastowhethertheriseinpricesis"thefaultofmoney")WhilethespokesmenoftheAlliesblamedthebudgetdeficit,andconsequentlyarguedthattheinflationwasprimarilycausedbycreationofmoneyProfessorBrescianiTurroniisastrongadherentoftheAlliedorQuantityTheoryschoolAtafirstglance,astheauthorfreelyadmits,thefactsappeartotellstronglyinfavouroftheGermanviewThereisnodisputeastothefactthatthetransitionfromtherelativelymoderatefluctuatingmovementsinexchangeandpricesoftheimmediatepostwaryearstotheviolentinflationwhichsetininthesecondhalfofwasinauguratedbyasuddenfallinthemarkexchange(May,marksgoldmarkNovember,Opcit,pTHEECONOMICJOURNALSEPTmarks=goldmark)ThisfallisgenerallyattributedtothecommencementofcashpaymentsofreparationsInthisperiodpaymentofmilliardgoldmarkswascarriedout,whilethetotalofexportswasoftheorderofmilliardgoldmarksperannumItisthereforeplausibletoattributethefallofthemarktothesuddendemandforforeignexchangeinrespectofreparationsTheauthor,anxioustoexoneratereparations,attributesitrathertotheshocktoconfidencecausedbythepartitionofUpperSilesia(p)Butthisisimmaterialtothemaintheoreticalquestionwhateverthecauseofthecollapseoftheexchange,itseemsclearthatitwasthecollapseoftheexchangewhichinauguratedthegreatinflationBoththemagnitudeandthetemporalorderofpricechangesinandsupporttheargumentIftheimpulsecomesfromthesideoftheexchange,weshouldexpectthefallinexchangetorunaheadoftheriseinprices,andthepricesoftradedgoodstorunaheadofhomepricesThisispreciselywhatoccurred,themagnitudeandspeedofchangebeinginthisorder:exchange,importprices,exportprices,homeprices,costofliving,wagesMoreover,thegeographicaldiffusionofpricessupportstheargument,themovementspreadingfromthegreatportsandcommercialcentrestotheinteriorofthecountry(p)ToallthistheauthoropposesatheoreticalargumentIfhomeincomesdonotrise,exchangedepreciationcannotcontinueindefinitely,butmustsomewherecometorest(p)ThestimulustoexportsandchecktoimportsmustwipeoutanunfavourablebalanceofpaymentsandestablishanewequilibriumwithaconstantexchangerateTheauthoradmitsthat,overacertainrange,afallinexchangeratemayreducethegoldvalueofexports,owingtoinelasticforeigndemand,andsomakethebalanceoftradestillmoreunfavourableBut,hepointsout(p),asufficientriseinthehomepriceofimportedgoodswillchokeoffdemand,sothatthereisalwayssomeleveloftheexchangerateatwhichthebalanceoftradewillrightitselfanddepreciationcometoanendForthisreasonhedismissestheviewthatthedepreciationofthemarkwastheprimarycauseoftheinflation,inspiteoftheevidencewhichheadmitsinitsfavour,andadherestoanalternativeexplanationHisexplanationisthattheGermanbudgetdeficit,financedbyborrowingfromtheReichsbank,ledtoacontinuousincreaseinthevolumeofmoneyFromthis,inhisview,alltherestfollowedButthisaccountofthemattermustbemorecloselyexaminedbeforeitcanbeaccepted,orevenunderstoodBRESCIANITURRONI:THEECONOMICSOFINFLATIONTheinfluenceofabudgetdeficituponpricescanbedividedintotwopartsThedirecteffectofadeficitistoincreaseincomesandthereforetoincreaseexpenditureandbusinessactivity,nomatterhowthedeficitisfinancedEveniftheGovernmentisborrowingatlongtermfromthepublic,anexcessofexpenditureoverrevenuemusttendtoincreaseincomesandactivityTheindirecteffectofadeficitfinancedbyborrowingfromthecentralbankistobringaboutanincreaseinthequantityofmoney,whichcontinuescumulativelyaslongasthedeficitpersistsNow,sofarasthedirecteffectofthedeficitisconcerned,itsinfluencewasbecomingweakerintheearlystagesoftheinflationInthedeficitwasmilliardgoldmarks(inthiscontextameasurementingoldmarks,thoughinaccurate,isasufficientguide)Initwasmilliardgoldmarks,inmilliard(p)OnlyinwasthereanincreaseinthedeficitFromthemiddleoftoMarchthedirectinfluenceofthedeficitwasdeclining,andifnoothercausehadbeenatwork,activityandpriceswouldhavebeenfallingIfthedeficitistobeblamedforthefirstphaseoftheinflation,itcanonlybebecauseofitsindirecteffecttheincreaseinthequantityofmoneyTheauthorassumes,ratherthanargues,thatanincreaseinthequantityofmoneywastherootcauseoftheinflationButthisviewitisimpossibletoacceptAnincreaseinthequantityofmoneynodoubthasatendencytoraiseprices,foritleadstoareductionintherateofinterest,whichstimulatesinvestmentanddiscouragessaving,andsoleadstoanincreaseinactivityButthereisnoevidencewhateverthateventsinGermanyfollowedthissequenceItistruethataveryhighrateofinvestmentprevailedduringtheinflation(p)AnditistruethattherewasadrasticdeclineinthriftinessSavingbytheordinarypublicceasedalmostcompletely,investmentbeingfinancedentirelyfromprofitsMoreovertherewasconsiderabledissavingbyindividualswhoconsumedtheirpastaccumulationsofwealthBoththehighrateofinvestmentandthelowpropensitytosaveplayedalargepartinmaintainingactivityatahighlevelduringtheinflation,butalltheseeffectssprang'fromtheexpectationofrisingpricestheyreinforcedaninflationwhichwasalreadyunderwaynotfromexcessivelylowinterestratesSimilarobjectionsapplyalsoinregardtohisargumentsinrelationtothevelocityofcirculationIftheinflationcannotbeattributedtolowinterestrates,itcannotbeattributedtotheTHEECONOMICJOURNASEPTfallinthedemandformoneywhichshowsitselfinincreasedvelocityofcirculationTheauthorrejectstheviewthatexchangedepreciationcausedtheinflationButthedifficultiesofhisownexplanationarejustasgreatNeitherthebudgetdeficitnortheincreaseinquantityandvelocityofcirculationofmoneycanproducetheeffectsattributedtothemClearlyineachexplanationsomeessentialitemismissingThemissingitemisnotfartoseekItistheriseinmoneywagesNeitherexchangedepreciationnorabudgetdeficitcanaccountforinflationbyitselfButiftheriseinmoneywagesisbroughtintothestory,thepartwhicheachplayscanbeclearlyseenWiththecollapseofthemarkin,importpricesroseabruptly,dragginghomepricesafterthemThesuddenriseinthecostoflivingledtourgentdemandsforhigherwagesUnemploymentwaslow(percentofmembersofTradeUnionswereunemployedAugust,percentin),profitswererisingwithprices,andtheGermanworkerswerefacedwithstarvationWageriseshadtobegrantedRisingwages,increasingbothhomecostsandhomemoneyincomes,counteractedtheeffectofexchangedepreciationinstimulatingexportsandrestrictingimportsEachriseinwages,therefore,precipitatedafurtherfallintheexchangerate,andeachfallintheexchangeratecalledforthafurtherriseinwagesThisprocessbecameautomaticwhenwagesbegantobepaidonacostoflivingbasis(p)Thustheauthor'scontentionthatthecollapseofthemarkcannothavecausedtheinflation,becausetheexchangeratewillalwaysfindanequilibriumlevel,isdeprivedofallforceassoonastheriseofmoneywagesisallotteditsproperroleButthoughtheGermantheorythatdepreciationcausesinflationcanbejustified,theAlliedtheoryisnottherebyruledoutAsufficientlygreatbudgetdeficit,whenunemploymentissufficientlylow,willraisepricesandincreasethedemandforlabourtothepointatwhichthepressureforhigherwagesbecomesirresistibleEachriseinwagesraisesprices,andsotheviciouscirclerevolvesMeanwhileacollapseoftheexchangeaddsfueltothefireItmaywellhavebeenthebudgetdeficitofduetopassiveresistanceintheRuhr,whichinauguratedthefinaldownfallofthemarkItappears,then,thateitherexchangedepreciationorabudgetdeficitmayinitiateinflation,andthattheGermanhistoryprovidesexamplesofbothcasesButtheessenceofinflationisarapidandcontinuousriseofmoneywagesWithoutrisingmoneywages,BRESCIANITURRONI:THEECONOMICSOFINFLATIONinflationcannotoccur,andwhateverstartsaviolentriseinmoneywagesstartsinflationItisevenpossiblethatanincreaseinthequantityofmoneymightstartaninflationAsufficientfallintherateofinterestmightconceivablyleadtosuchanincreaseininvestmentthatunemploymentdisappeared,andmoneywagesandpricesstartedtheirspiralriseButthisismerelyatheoreticalpossibility,notanaccountofthecourseofeventsinGermanyActuallythequantityofmoneywasimportant,notbecauseitcausedinflation,butbecauseitallowedittocontinueIfthequantityofmoneyhadnotexpanded,itmaybesupposedthattherateofinterestwouldhavebeendrivenup,investmentimpededandsavingencouraged,sothatunemploymentwouldhaveappearedagainandtheriseinmoneywageswouldhavebeenbroughttoanendButinfactthebudgetdeficit,thepolicyoftheReichsbankin"meetingtheneedsoftrade"andthevariousofficialandunofficialsupplementarycurrencieswhichwereimprovised,combinedtomeetthedemandformoney,theshortrateofinterestdidnotbegintoriseappreciablytillJuly,andnoobstaclewasputinthewayoftheinflationItistruethatintheshortrateofinterestrosetosuchheightsthatloansweretakenatpercentperdiem(thoughthemaximumreachedbytheReichsbankdiscountratewasonlypercentperannum)ButbythistimetheexpectationofacontinuedriseinpriceswassostrongthatitwasimpossibleforhighinterestratestodiscourageentrepreneursfrominvestmentortorestorethemotiveforsavingtotheordinarypublicThusthefactthathighratesdidnotstoptheinflationincannotprovethattheywouldhavebeenequallypowerlessinThechampionsofthequantitytheory,therefore,mayreasonablycontendthatitwastheincreaseinthequantityofmoneywhichpermittedtheinflationtotakeplaceInhisConcluiontheauthorclaimsnomorethanthatanincreaseinthequantityofmoneyisanecessaryconditionofinflationAcleargraspofthedistinctionbetweenanecessaryandasufficientconditionseemstobeallthatisrequiredtosettlethecontroversyItistruethatatraincannotmovewhenthebrakeison,butitwouldbefoolishtosaythatthecauseofmotioninatrainisthatthebrakeisremovedItisnoless,butnomore,sensibletosaythatanincreaseinthequantityofmoneyisthecauseofinflationTheanalogycanbepressedfurtherIftheengineispowerfulandisworkingatfullsteam,applicationofthebrakemayfailtobringthetraintorestNoVOLXLVIIIMmTHEECONOMICJOURNALSEPTSimilarly,onceanexpectationofrisingpriceshasbeensetup,amererefusaltoincreasethequantityofmoneymaybeinsufficienttocurbactivityItissometimesarguedthatthestabilisationofthemarkinNovemberindicatesthatinflationcanbestoppedatanymomentifthequantityofmoneyisstrictlycontrolledInspiteofhimself,theauthoradvancesevidenceforanentirelydifferentinterpretationofthefactsBeforethestabilisationtookplace,inflationhadreachedsuchapitchastobringitselftoanendThestabilisationoccurredonlywhenthemarkhadineffectalmostcompletelyceasedtofunctionasmoney(p)ThemnarklostthecharacteristicsofmoneyinthreestagesBytheautumnofithadceasedtofunctionasa"storeofvalue"Whentheexpectationofacontinuousriseinpricesbecamegeneralthedemandformoneytoholddisappeared,asisshownbythefall,whichsetinatthatdate,intherealvalueoftheoutstandingquantityofmoneyInthelaterpartofthemarkceasedtofunctionasa"unitofaccount"Itbecamemoreandmorecommontoreckonallprices,andtofixwagerates,withreferencetotheexchangerate,sothat,ineffect,thedollarwastheunitofaccountThemarknoteneverceasedaltogethertofunctionasa"mediumofexchange,"butitwastoalargeextentdisplacedbyforeigncurrencyandthe"stablevalue"instrumentsofvariouskindswhichwereimprovisedFinally,inthegreatslideofthemarkhadbeguntolosethecharacterofa"standardofdeferredpayments,"forloansbegantobecontractedintermsofdollars,copper,kilowatthoursandwhatnotWhenthisprocessspread,theexpectationofrisingpriceslostitspowertostimulateinvestment,fortherewasnoexpectationthatpricesintermsofdollars,orofparticularcommodities,wouldriseTheforceofinflationinstimulatingactivitywasallbutspent,anditissignificantthatunemploymentrosesharplyinAugustThedislocationcausedbytheinvasionoftheRuhrraisedunemploymentamongTradeUnioniststopercentinApril,butthestimulusofinflationreduceditagaintopercentinJulyInthefinalslidethestimulusofinflationwasexhaustedandunemploymentrosetopercentinSeptember(p)TheRentenmarkwasineffectnomorethananofficialversionofthe"stablevalue"currenciesthatwerealreadyinuse(p)Thestabilisationwasnodoubtafirmandcourageousactofpolicy,butitprovidesnoargumenttosupporttheviewthatHICKS:THE'ORIEMATHEMATIQUEinflation,atanadvancedstage,canbecheckedbylimitingthequantityofmoneyJOANROBINSONCambridgeTheorieMathematiqtedelaValeurenregimedeLibreConcurrenceParJRHICKS(Paris:HermainPp)THISbooklet,whichisoneoftheseriespublishedunderthedirectionofGrLalla,isinprincipleapreliminarystudytoaforthcomingworkbythesameauthoronValueandCapitalThemainintentionappearstohavebeentoassemblethenecessarymathematicalformulavinaconvenientandcheapform,butinfactitaffordscompletetreatmentofcertaindefinedproblemsWefindhereadevelopmentoftheveryimportantmethodsinitiatedinbyHicksandAlleninEconomicaunderthetitle"AReconsiderationoftheTheoryofValue"AreaderofthisbookletwoulddowellfirsttorefreshhismemoryoftheseearlierpapersApartfromtherecastingoftheformofequilibriumanalysis,themLostilluminatingresultwastheexpressionoftheelasticityofdemandinaformnowwrittenEx,L~~~~~ErEXSPrsisthesymbolismfortheelasticityofthedemandforEprXsPragoodXsinrelationtoachangeofpriceofanothergoodXrIfwewritesr,weobtaintheelasticityindemandofXrinrelationtoachangeofitsownprice,whichisthemorefamiliarfunctionofademandcurveIntheequationMisthetotalexpenditureofanindividualonallgoods,kristheproportionalexpenditureatequilibriumonXraM,whichcompletestheequation,isterinedthe"elasticityofsubstitution"betweenXrandXsPriortothisanalysisithadbeencustomarytoignorechangesofincomeorexpenditure(M)whendealingwithelasticitiesofdemandThetermkrarsisthenananalyticalexpressionfortheelasticityofdemandatconstanttotalexpenditurewhenonepricechanges,andittakesintoaccountalltheconcomitantchangesinthepurchasesofallothergoodsIntheearlierarticlesthisequationrelatedtooneindividualwithacomplexofpreferencesforanynumberofgoods,theformulaebeingworkedoutforthreegoodsonlyButnowwehavetheanalysisextendedtoincludeanynumberofgoods(ChapterI),anynumberofconsumers(ChapterII)andanyMMArticleContentspppppppIssueTableofContentsTheEconomicJournal,Vol,No(Sep,),ppFrontMatterScopeandMethodofEconomicsppTheMovementofRealandMoneyWageRatesppDeterminationoftheMultiplierfromNationalIncomeStatisticsppThePolicyofGovernmentStorageofFoodStuffsandRawMaterialsppTheNationalEconomyofGermanyppReviewsuntitledppuntitledppuntitledppuntitledpp

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