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首页 2- 货币主义的惩罚--英文原文.doc

2- 货币主义的惩罚--英文原文.doc

2- 货币主义的惩罚--英文原文.doc

上传者: 静谧的池塘 2012-12-16 评分 0 0 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《2- 货币主义的惩罚--英文原文doc》,可适用于经济金融领域,主题内容包含THESCOURGEOFMONETARISMSECONDEDITIONPARTITheRadcliffeReportandMonetaryPolic符等。

THESCOURGEOFMONETARISMSECONDEDITIONPARTITheRadcliffeReportandMonetaryPolicyTheRadcliffeLecturesdeliveredattheUniversityofWarwickPARTIIMonetaryPolicyintheUnitedKingdomEvidencetotheTreasuryandCivilServiceCommitteeJulyNICHOLASKALDOROXFORDUNIVERSITYPRESSLECTUREIIThemainfaultoftheRadcliffeReportwasthatitinterpreteditsowntermsofreferenceverynarrowly,andhavingcometoconclusionsthatweresolargelynegative,itdidnotattempttogiveanyoutline,orevenahint,ofitsviewsofhowtheveryrealproblemswhichmonetarypolicywascalledupontodealwithcouldbetackledTheCommitteewasundoubtedlywellawareoftheseproblemsnotleastbecauseoftheseriesofexcellentmemorandawhichitreceivedfromdistinguishedBritisheconomistsandthesecomprisedthepersistenceofinflationanditsworldwidecharacterwhichwassocontrarytopreviousexperienceinadequategrowthwhichtheyascribedtoinsufficientlongterminvestmentinadequateexportperformanceinrelationtocompetitorsandcyclicalinstabilityleadingattimestoexcessivepressureofdemandKeynesianprinciplesofeconomicmanagementwereuniversallyacceptedbyallpoliticalpartiesandbyacademiceconomiststherewerenomonetaristsofthosedaysandthequestionfordiscussionconcernedonlyhowtheperformanceoftheeconomycouldbeimprovedintermsofgrowthaswellastheavoidanceofinflationThefamousCoalitionWhitePaperonEmploymentPolicyofwhichacceptedthemaintenanceofahighandstablelevelofemploymentas'oneoftheGovernment'sprimaryaimsandresponsibilities'wasfollowedinbyafurtherWhitePaperissuedbyaConservativeGovernmentontheEconomicImplicationsofFullEmploymentwhichstatedthat:'TheGovernmentispledgedtofosterconditionsinwhichthenationcan,ifitsowills,realiseitsfullpotentialitiesforgrowthintermsofproductionandlivingstandards'Themaininstrumentforattainingtheseendswastheregulationofthepressureofdemandbyfiscalpolicysupplementedbymonetarypolicy,andthemainquestionatissuewashowthevariousobjectivesIcanstronglyrecommendtopresentdaystudentsthestudyofsomeofthememorandareprintedinthethirdvolumeoftheCommittee'sMemorandaofEvidenceThevolumecontainsoverthirtymemorandasubmittedbyeconomists,anumberofwhom(particularlyAJBrown,JCRDow,RFHarrod,RFKahn,IMDLittle,RRNeild,andRRoss)gaveanexcellentpresentationoftheissuesthathaslostnoneofitsrelevanceinsharpcontrastwithpresentdaywritersonthesubject,whosereasoningandterminologyhavebeenhopelesslybefuddledbytheoutpouringsofmonetaristwritersfromacrosstheAtlanticCmd,paraofpolicygrowthleadingtorisinglivingstandards,aswellasfullemployment,theavoidanceofinflation,andasatisfactorybalanceofpaymentscouldbepursuedmoresuccessfullythroughabetterorchestrationofinstrumentsTheKeynesianmodel,onthebasisofwhicheconomicmanagementwasconducted,hadhoweveroneconspicuousweaknessitassumedmoneywagesasexogenouslygivenIndeed,everythingintheGeneralTheorywasmeasuredintermsof'wageunits'whichmeantthat,inaclosedeconomy,therateofchangeinthepricelevelwasmadetodependontherateofincreaseinmoneywagesrelativetotheriseinproductivityFiscalandmonetarypolicywerebroughttobeartoensurethefullutilizationofresourcesbuttheywereunavailingfordealingwithwageinducedinflationSomeeconomiststhoughtthatkeepingunemploymentsteadyatasomewhathigherlevelsayinsteadofpercentmightsufficetopreventexcessivewageincreasesothers,likemyself,thoughtthatfullemploymentrequiresapermanentincomespolicy,andelaboratedaschemetothateffectasearlyasInfactapolicyofrestraintonpersonalincomes,introducedbySirStaffordCrippsin,successfullyheldtheriseinwagesandpricestobelowpercentfortwoyearsinsuccession,and,untiltheoutbreakoftheKoreanwarButwiththereturnoftheConservativeGovernmentin,thepoliticalatmosphereforaschemeofthiskindwhichinvariablyinvolvedtheattainmentofsomeconsensusoverthedistributionofincomebetweenwagesandprofitswaslackingSoinflationwentonthoughinthesecondhalfofthes,thankstofallingrawmaterialprices,itdidsoatalesserratethanbeforeandalmostcametoastandstillinButinthesitstartedupagain,showingdistinctsignsofaccelerationtowardstheendofthatdecade,probablyasaresultoftheinflationaryeffectsoftheVietnamwarTheCommitteewithrareperspicacityconcludedthat'theeconomyoftheUnitedKingdomintheswill,intherelevantways,bemorelikethatofthesthanlikethatofanyearlierperiod'UnbeknownsttotheCommitteealittleman(Iusethisexpressionpurelyliterally,meaningphysicalheight,andinnoothersense)wasbeaveringawayinAmericamakingcorrelationsontimesseriesdatawhichshowedthatfluctuationsinthechangesoftheamountofmoneyincirculationarecloselyrelatedtochangesinthelevelofaggregateReportoftheCommitteeontheWorkingoftheMonetarySystem,Cmnd(HMSO,August),paramoneyincomethemoneynationalincomeIamreferringofcoursetoMiltonFriedman,whospentyearsindemonstratingastrongcorrelationbetweenMandY(whereMstandsforthestockofmoneyandYthemoneynationalincome)andwhoconvincedhimselfthatthishighcorrelationinitselfconstitutesarefutationoftheKeynesianmodeloftheeconomyandanempiricalconfirmationoftheclassicaltheory,thequantitytheoryofmoneyThequantitytheoryofmoneywhichdominatedbotheconomicandpoliticalthoughtinthenineteenthcentury(thebestproofofwhichwastheBankCharterActof)assertedthatthevalueofmoneyvariesininverseproportiontoitsquantity,therelationshipdependingonthedemandtoholdwealthintheformofmoneyexpressedasaproportionofincomeSupposepeopledesiretoholdastockofmoney,oranaveragedailybalance,whichistheequivalentofthreemonths'incomeonexpenditureBothMarshallandWalrasassertedthatsincetheactualsizeofbalancesaregivenexogenouslybythequantityofgoldinexistence(theywerepostulatingthatgoldwasthemoneycommodity),andsinceallthegoldthatisanywheremustbesomewhere,theremustbeamechanismtoensurethatactualbalancesarebroughtintoconformitywithdesiredrealbalances,andthatmechanismconsistsofchangesinthevalueofgoldinrelationtoothercommoditiesIfactualbalancesexceeddesiredbalances,andpeopleincreasetheirspendingsoastogetridoftheexcess,thevalueofmoneywillfall,andconverselyThereisthereforeaparticularcommodityvalueofgoldwhichensuresconformityofactualwithdesiredbalancesThisdoctrineisnotinconsistentwiththepropositionthatthequantityofgoldisonly'given'forthetimebeing,andoveraperioditcanbeincreasedbynewproductionordecreasedbynonmonetaryusesofgoldInthelongrun,accordingtoRicardoandhisfollowers,thevalueofgoldwillitselfconformtoitslabourcostofproductioninthesamewayasinthecaseofothercommoditiesTherewas,however,alwaysacomplication,duetotheexistenceofpapermoneyOriginallythiswasthoughtnottomakeanydifference:papermoneywaspreferredasmoreconvenienttohandleandtocarryabout,butitwasreallynomoreorthoughttobenomorethanacloakroomticketforthegolddepositedwithtrustworthypersonslikegoldsmiths,and,later,moneylendersorbankers,whohadstrongroomsforsafekeepingHowever,thissimpleideaaboutpapermoneycouldnolongerbemaintainedwhenitwasdiscovered,rathertothedistasteofeconomistslikeWalras,thatthevolumeofpapermoneyincirculationwasamultipleoftheamountofgolddepositedinthevaultsofbanksButafterfurtherthoughtitwasconcludedthatthisdoesnotmakeanydifferenceeitherprovidedthatpapermoneymaintainsitsparitywithgoldthroughconvertibility,andprovidedthattherearefirmrulesorconventions,whetherlegalorprudential,toensureconvertibilityStilllaterthisdoctrinewasextendedwhenbankdepositsbecameafurthercirculatingmedium,andthenitwasstillfurtherextendedtothecaseofinconvertiblepapercurrencies,providedthatthequantityofpapermoneyincirculationwasdeterminedquiteexogenouslybytheflatofthemonetaryauthoritiesAfterall,itwasnottheintrinsicvalueofgoldbutitslimitedquantity(its'scarcity')whichdetermineditsvalueThiswasthedominantdoctrineinwhichallAngloSaxoneconomistsofthepresentcenturywerebroughtupwhetherIrvingFisherinAmerica,orKeynesinCambridge,wholecturedonitformanyyearsbeforeandafterWorldWarIwithoutquestioningthebasicprinciplesItsimplicationswerethatinflationisalwaystheresultofthe'overissue'ofbanknotes(touseRicardo'soriginalexpression),whethercausedbythefinancialneedsofGovernments(asintimesofwar)orthegreedofbankswho(withtheconnivanceoftheCentralBank)extendedtoomuchbankcreditNowKeynes'sintellectualdevelopment,spreadoverseveraldecades,consistedofalongstruggletoescapefromthistheoryhesucceededindoingsoinstageswhichmeantthatheneverabandoneditaltogetherThefirststagewastherealizationthatlabourisdifferentfromcommodities:thelabourmarketisdifferentfromcommoditymarkets,inthatanexcesssupplywillnotcauseareductioninwages,nordoesanexcessdemandnecessarilyleadtoariseinwages,atleastnotimmediatelyHencehisoppositiontothereturntotheGoldStandardatprewarparity:thedomesticpricelevelistiedtothelevelofwageswhicharenotadjusteddownwardssoastokeepsupplyanddemandinequilibriumThesecondstagecamewiththerealizationorrecognitionthateffectivedemandforcommoditiesintheaggregateisnotdeterminedbymonetaryfactorsbutbyautonomousdemandfinancedbyloanexpendituresandthemultiplierwhichdependedonthepropensityHehimselfcomplained,inanoftquotedpassage,ofthedifficultiesofescapingfromhabitualmodesofthoughtandexpression,'whichramifyintoeverycornerofourminds'(TheGeneralTheoryofEmployment,InterestandMoney(London,),Preface)KeyneswasapupilofMarshallandboretracesofittotheendofhislifetosaveoutofincomeThismeantthatinvestmentandsavings,whicharealwaysbroughtintoequalityexpostdosothroughtheadjustmentofincomesandnot,asthetraditionaltheoryhadit,throughmovementsintherateofinterestinthemarketforloansThislefttherateofinterest'intheair',asKeyneshimselfputit(becauseitcouldnolongerbeheldthattherateofinterestisthe'price'whichequatessavingswithinvestment),untilhethoughtoftheideaofliquiditypreferencethatpeople'sdemandformoneywillbethegreaterthelowertherateofinterestwhichprovidedthemechanismthroughwhichmonetaryvariablesaccommodatethemselvestothe'realfactors',theunderlyingrelationshipswhichgeneratetheequilibriumlevelofeffectivedemandUnfortunately,thewayhepresentedthissolutionwasamodificationofthequantitytheoryofmoney,notitsabandonmentForhewrote:M=L(Y,r)orM=k(r)YwhereL(Y,r)representsthedemandformoneyasafunctionofboththelevelofincomeYandtherateofinterest,r,whilek(r)representsthedemandformoneyexpressedasaproportionofincome,and(accordingtoKeynes)isaninversefunctionoftherateofinterestOr,toputthesamethinginFisher'sterminology:DY=MV(r)(insteadofY=MV)Thisimpliesthatalltheadjustmentsofmonetarytorealfactorsarethroughchangesinthevelocityofcirculationsincethequantityofmoney,M,isstillshownasanindependentvariable,determinedbythemonetaryauthoritiesItwasperhapsthisformofpresentationwhichledtheRadcliffeCommitteetotheratherextremesoundingstatementsaboutthevariabilityofthevelocityofcirculationquotedinthefirstoftheselecturesAnditledyoungMiltonFriedmanintobelievingthattheempiricalvalidityoftheKeynesiantheorydependedontheabsenceofanycorrelationbetweenMandYClearlyifVadjuststovariationsofY,MandYcouldnotbecloselyrelatedMuchtohissurprise,hefoundtheoppositeastrongcorrelationbetweenMandYHeworkedandworkedandreworkedthehistoricalseriesonmoneyandincomeonallthedatahecouldgetholdof,andthenextendeditintime,andthoughheencounteredsomedifficultieshewasabletoeliminatetheseIbid,pbythepostulateofavariabletimelagofanaturethatchangesinMalwaysprecededchangesinYbyanythingbetweensixmonthsandtwoyearsHowever,asevenpeoplewithanelementaryknowledgeofstatisticsknow,leadsandlagscanonlybeestablishedattheturningpointsofstatisticalseriesSinceinthetimeseriesheexamined(mainlydataonmoneyandincomeintheUS)moneyandincomewerealwaysrising(atleastuptotheGreatDepression),sometimesfasterandsometimesmoreslowly,itcouldnotreallybeestablishedwhethereitherofthestatisticalserieshadaleadoralaginrelationtotheotherMoreover,Friedman'semphaticreassertionofthequantitytheoryofmoneybasedonastabledemandfunctionformoneyorastablevelocity:thetwocometothesamethingwascruciallydependentonthequantityofmoneybeingreallyexogenous,determinedbytheflatofthemonetaryauthoritiesquiteindependentlyofthedemandforitOrrather,inadynamiccontext,itdependedonthepostulatethatvariationsintherateofincreaseinthemoneystockarethecauseofvariationsintherateofgrowthofmoneyincomesoccurringsubsequentlyWhenIfirstheardofFriedman'sempiricalfindings,intheearlys,Ireceivedthenewswithsomeincredulity,untilitsuddenlydawnedonmethatFriedman'sresultsmustbereadinreversethecausationmustrunfromYtoM,andnotfromMtoYAndthelongerIthoughtaboutitthemoreconvincedIbecamethatatheoryofthevalueofmoneybasedonacommoditymoneyeconomyitisnotapplicabletoacreditmoneyeconomyIntheonecasemoneyhasanindependentsupplyfunction,basedonproductioncost,whileintheothercasenewmoneycomesintoexistenceinconsequenceof,orasanaspectof,theextensionofbankcreditIf,asaresult,moremoneycomesintoexistencethanthepublic,atthegivenorexpectedlevelofincomesorexpenditures,wishestohold,theexcesswillbeautomaticallyextinguishedeitherthroughdebtrepaymentoritsconversionintointerestbearingassetsinawayinwhichgoldcouldnotbemadetodisappearfromexistencemerelybecauseparticularpersonsfindthattheyhavetoomuchofitTheycanpassitontoothers,butiftheyhaveless,otherswillhavemoreIfinditdifficulttogetthispointacrossexceptwiththeaidofasimplediagramKeynes'stheoryofliquiditypreference,asshowninthatequation,hasbeendiagrammaticallyrepresentedinthefollowingway:ThesupplyofmoneyisgivenasM,whichisthereforeaverticallineThedemandformoneyisthegreaterthelowertherateofinterest,foranygivenlevelofYAtagivenYthereisaparticularrateofinterest,r*,wherethedemandcurveintersectsthesupplylinetherateofinterestisthereforethe'price'whichequatesthedemandandthesupplyofmoney(asastock)notthedemandandsupplyforloans(whichisaflow)ThehigherYis,thehigheristhedemandformoneysowithanincreaseinYthecurveisshiftedtotherightAseriesofcurvescanbedrawnfordifferentlevelsofincomeandtheirpointofintersectionwithM,thegivenmoneystock,canberepresentedasasingleLMcurveinventedbyHicks,whorepresentedKeynesianequilibriumatthepointofintersectionofanIScurve(thelattershowingpointsofequalityofsavingsandinvestmentatdifferentlevelsofincome)withtheLMcurve(Thisdiagrambecameverypopular,particularlyinAmerica,givingrisetoendlesscomplicationsandfalseconclusions,mainlybecausethetwocurveswerenotinparimateriatheonerelatedtostocksandtheothertoflows)Now,inthecaseofcreditmoneytheproperrepresentationshouldbeahorizontal'supplycurve'ofmoneynotaverticaloneMonetarypolicyisrepresentednotbyagivenquantityofmoneystockbutbyagivenrateofinterestandtheamountofmoneyinexistencewillbedemanddeterminedDemandwillvarywithincomesasbefore,anditispossiblethattherateofinterestoftheCentralBank(theoldBankRate,nowtheMLR)willbevariedupwardsordownwardsasameansofrestrictingcreditormakingcrediteasier,butthisdoesnotalterthefactthatatanytime,oratalltimes,themoneystockwillbedeterminedbydemand,andtherateofinterestdeterminedbytheCentralBankThismeansthatfromthepointofviewofthatequationrisnotadependentbutanindependentvariabletodeterminerweneedafurtherequationwhichinitssimplestformcouldbewrittenas:Butofcoursefromthepointofviewofanysinglecountryitcouldbeafarmorecomplicatedequation,withtheBankRateorMinimumLendingRatebeingafunctionofthelevel,oroftherateofchangeinCentralBankreserves,ofgoldorforeigncurrencies,andortherateofinterestinotherfinancialcentres,etcTotheextentthatFriedmanisrightinhisempiricalconclusionthatthedemandformoney,orratherthevelocityofcirculation,isnotsensitivetochangesintherateofinterest,themoneystockbecomesmainlydependentondemand,governedbythelevelofincomesandmonetarypolicybasedoninterestratechangesistotallyineffectiveasaregulatorofthemoneysupplyAnyeffectisthusanindirectoneviatheinfluenceofchangesintheinterestrateoninvestmentandhenceonthelevelofincomesgeneratedbyaKeynesianmultiplieracceleratorprocessItisaninfluenceonthedemandformoneyexertedthroughchangesinthelevelofproductionandincomes,andnotadirecteffectonthedesiretoholdmoneyWhilstmonetaristscontinuallyemphasizethattheCentralBankcanorshoulddirectlydeterminethequantityofmoney,oratleastthe'basestock'ofmoney,consistingofbanknotesandbankers'reserves(orbalances)withtheCentralBank,infacttheycandonosuchthing,asarecentexperiencewiththeFederalReserveortheBankofEnglandshows(EvenFriedmanadmittedthisrecentlywhenhesaidthatincompetentCentralBanksliketheBankofEnglandarenotcapableofregulatingthemoneysupply)Theycannotpreventeitheradepletionoranaccumulationof'highpoweredmoney'(orreservemoney)exceptbyapolicyofenordiscouragementbyraisingorloweringtherateatwhichtheyarepreparedtocreatereservesbydiscounting(orrediscounting)TreasuryBillsandbondsButtheCentralBankcannotclosethe'discountwindow'withoutendangeringthesolvencyofthebankingsystemtheymustmaintaintheirfunctionasa'lenderoflast

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