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首页 6- 货币中性论--英文原文.PDF

6- 货币中性论--英文原文.PDF

6- 货币中性论--英文原文.PDF

上传者: 静谧的池塘 2012-12-16 评分 0 0 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《6- 货币中性论--英文原文pdf》,可适用于经济金融领域,主题内容包含NobelLecture:MonetaryNeutralityAuthor(s):RobertELucas,JrSource:TheJournalo符等。

NobelLecture:MonetaryNeutralityAuthor(s):RobertELucas,JrSource:TheJournalofPoliticalEconomy,Vol,No(Aug,),ppPublishedby:TheUniversityofChicagoPressStableURL:http:wwwjstororgstableAccessed::YouruseoftheJSTORarchiveindicatesyouracceptanceofJSTOR'sTermsandConditionsofUse,availableathttp:wwwjstororgpageinfoaboutpoliciestermsjspJSTOR'sTermsandConditionsofUseprovides,inpart,thatunlessyouhaveobtainedpriorpermission,youmaynotdownloadanentireissueofajournalormultiplecopiesofarticles,andyoumayusecontentintheJSTORarchiveonlyforyourpersonal,noncommercialusePleasecontactthepublisherregardinganyfurtheruseofthisworkPublishercontactinformationmaybeobtainedathttp:wwwjstororgactionshowPublisherpublisherCode=ucpressEachcopyofanypartofaJSTORtransmissionmustcontainthesamecopyrightnoticethatappearsonthescreenorprintedpageofsuchtransmissionJSTORisanotforprofitservicethathelpsscholars,researchers,andstudentsdiscover,use,andbuilduponawiderangeofcontentinatrusteddigitalarchiveWeuseinformationtechnologyandtoolstoincreaseproductivityandfacilitatenewformsofscholarshipFormoreinformationaboutJSTOR,pleasecontactsupportjstororgTheUniversityofChicagoPressiscollaboratingwithJSTORtodigitize,preserveandextendaccesstoTheJournalofPoliticalEconomyhttp:wwwjstororgNobelLecture:MonetaryNeutralityRobertELucas,JrUniversityofChicagoIIntroductionTheworkforwhichIhavereceivedtheNobelPrizewaspartofanefforttounderstandhowchangesintheconductofmonetarypolicycaninfluenceinflation,employment,andproductionSomuchthoughthasbeendevotedtothisquestionandsomuchevidenceisavailablethatonemightreasonablyassumethatithadbeensolvedlongagoButthisisnotthecase:IthadnotbeensolvedintheswhenIbeganmyworkonit,andevennowthisquestionhasnotbeengivenanythinglikeafullysatisfactoryanswerInthislectureIshalltrytoclarifywhatitisabouttheproblemofbringingavailableevidencetobearontheassessmentofdifferentmonetarypoliciesthatmakesitsodifficultandtoreviewtheprogressthathasbeenmadetowardsolvingitinthelasttwodecadesFromthebeginningsofmodernmonetarytheory,inDavidHume'smarvelousessaysof,OfMoneyandOfInterest,conclusionsabouttheeffectofchangesinmoneyhaveseemedtodependcriticallyonthewayinwhichthechangeiseffectedInformulatingthedoctrinethatwenowcallthequantitytheoryofmoney,HumestressedtheunitschangeaspectofchangesinthemoneystockandtheirrelevanceofsuchchangestothebehaviorofrationalpeopleItisindeedevidentthatmoneyisnothingbuttherepresentationoflabourandcommodities,andservesonlyasamethodofratingorestimatingthemWherecoinisinIthankNancyStokeyforinvaluablediscussionandcriticismIamalsoverygratefulforcommentsfromWilliamBrock,JohnCochrane,MiltonFriedman,LarsHansen,AnilKashyap,RandallKroszner,BennettMcCallum,CaseyMulligan,SherwinRosen,AllenSanderson,ThomasSargent,JohnTaylor,NeilWallace,WarrenWeber,andJorgenWeibullJournalofPoliticalEconomy,,vol,noTheNobelFoundationiJOURNALOFPOLITICALECONOMYgreaterplenty,asagreaterquantityofitisrequiredtorepresentthesamequantityofgoods,itcanhavenoeffect,eithergoodorbadanymorethanitwouldmakeanalterationonamerchant'sbooks,if,insteadoftheArabianmethodofnotation,whichrequiresfewcharacters,heshouldmakeuseoftheRoman,whichrequiresagreatmanyOfMoney,pHumereturnstothisideathatchangesinthequantityofmoneyarejustunitschangesinOfInterest:WereallthegoldinEnglandannihilatedatonce,andoneandtwentyshillingssubstitutedintheplaceofeveryguinea,wouldmoneybemoreplentifulorinterestlowerNosurely:WeshouldonlyusesilverinsteadofgoldWeregoldrenderedascommonassilver,andsilverascommonascopper,wouldmoneybemoreplentifulorinterestlowerWemayassuredlygivethesameanswerOurshillingswouldthenbeyellow,andourhalfpencewhite,andweshouldhavenoguineasNootherdifferencewouldeverbeobserved,noalterationoncommerce,manufactures,navigation,orinterest,unlessweimaginethatthecolourofthemetalisofanyconsequencepThesearetwoofHume'sstatementsofwhatwenowcallthequantitytheoryofmoney:thedoctrinethatchangesinthenumberofunitsofmoneyincirculationwillhaveproportionaleffectsonallpricesthatarestatedinmoneyterms,andnoeffectatallonanythingreal,onhowmuchpeopleworkoronthegoodstheyproduceorconsumeNotice,though,thatthereissomethingalittlemagicalaboutthewayinwhichchangesinmoneycomeaboutinHume'sexamplesAllthegoldinEnglandgets"annihilated"Elsewhereheasksusto"supposethat,bymiracle,everymaninGreatBritainshouldhavefivepoundssliptintohispocketinonenight"(p)MoneychangesinrealitydonotoccurbysuchmeansIsthisjustamatterofexposition,orshouldwebeconcernedaboutitThisturnsouttobeacrucialquestionInfact,Humewritesasfollows:Whenanyquantityofmoneyisimportedintoanation,itisnotatfirstdispersedintomanyhandsbutisconfinedtothecoffersofafewpersons,whoimmediatelyseektoemployittoadvantageHereareasetofmanufacturersormerchants,weshallsuppose,whohavereceivedreturnsofgoldandIAllpagereferencestoHume'sessaysaretakenfromHume()IhaveleftthespellingasintheoriginalandmodernizedthepunctuationNOBELLECTUREsilverforgoodswhichtheysenttoCadizTheyaretherebyenabledtoemploymoreworkmenthanformerly,whoneverdreamofdemandinghigherwages,butaregladofemploymentfromsuchgoodpaymastersTheartisancarrieshismoneytomarket,wherehefindseverythingatthesamepriceasformerly,butreturnswithgreaterquantityandofbetterkindsfortheuseofhisfamilyThefarmerandgardener,findingthatalltheircommoditiesaretakenoff,applythemselveswithalacritytoraisingmoreItiseasytotracethemoneyinitsprogressthroughthewholecommonwealth,whereweshallfindthatitmustfirstquickenthediligenceofeveryindividualbeforeitencreasethepriceoflabourpSymmetrically,Humebelievesthatamonetarycontractioncouldinducedepression:Thereisalwaysanintervalbeforemattersbeadjustedtotheirnewsituation,andthisintervalisaspernicioustoindustrywhengoldandsilverarediminishingasitisadvantageouswhenthesemetalsareencreasingTheworkmanhasnotthesameemploymentfromthemanufacturerandmerchant,thoughhepaysthesamepriceforeverythinginthemarketThefarmercannotdisposeofhiscornandcattle,thoughhemustpaythesamerenttohislandlordThepoverty,andbeggary,andslothwhichmustensueareeasilyforeseenpHumemakesitclearthathedoesnotviewhisopinionsabouttheinitialeffectsofmonetaryexpansionsasmajorqualificationstothequantitytheory,tohisviewthat"itisofnomannerofconsequence,withregardtothedomestichappinessofastate,whethermoneybeinagreaterorlessquantity"(p)PerhapshesimplydidnotseethattheirrelevanceofunitschangesfromwhichhededucesthelongrunneutralityofmoneyhassimilarimplicationsfortheinitialreactiontomoneychangesaswellWhy,forexample,doesanearlyrecipientofthenewmoney"findeverythingatthesamepriceasformerly"Ifeveryoneunderstandsthatpriceswillultimatelyincreaseinproportiontotheincreaseinmoney,whatforcestopsthisfromhappeningrightawayArepeoplecommitted,perhapsevencontractually,tocontinuetooffergoodsattheoldpricesforatimeIfso,HumedoesnotmentionitAresellersignorantofthefactthatmoneyhasincreasedandageneralinflationisinevitableButHumeclaimsthattherealconsequencesofmoneychangesare"easytoJOURNALOFPOLITICALECONOMYtrace"and"easilyforeseen"Ifso,whydotheseconsequencesoccuratallThesequestionsdonotinvolvemeremattersofdetailHumehasdeducedthequantitytheoryofmoneybypurelytheoreticalreasoningfrom"thatprincipleofreason"thatpeopleactrationallyandthatthisfactisreflectedinmarketdeterminedquantitiesandpricesConsistencysurelyrequiresatleastanattempttoapplythesesameprinciplestotheanalysisoftheinitialeffectsofamonetaryexpansionorcontractionIthinkthefactisthatthisisjusttoodifficultaproblemforaneconomistequippedwithonlyverbalmethods,evensomeoneofHume'sremarkablepowersThistensionbetweentwoincompatibleideasthatchangesinmoneyareneutralunitschangesandthattheyinducemovementsinemploymentandproductioninthesamedirectionhasbeenatthecenterofmonetarytheoryatleastsinceHumewroteThoughithasnot,inmyopinion,beenfullyresolved,importantprogresshasbeenmadeonatleasttwodimensionsThefirstisapurelytheoreticalquestion:Underwhatassumptionsandforwhatkindsofchangescanweexpectmonetarychangestobeneutral(ItakethisterminologyfromDonPatinkin'sMoney,Interest,andPrices,thebookthatintroducedsomanyeconomistsofmycohorttothesetheoreticalissues)ThetheoreticalequipmentwehaveforsharpeningandaddressingsuchquestionshasbeenvastlyimprovedsinceHume'sday,andIshalldrawontheseimprovementsbelowOfatleastequalimportance,anenormousamountofevidenceonmoney,prices,andproductionhasbeenaccumulatedoverthepasttwocenturies,andmuchfruitfulthoughthasbeenappliedtoissuesofmeasurementInthenextsection,IshallexaminesomeofthisevidenceIIEvidenceItishardtotellfromtheessayswhatevidenceHumeactuallyhadinfrontofhimCertainlyhewrotebeforesystematicdataonmoneysupplieswerecollectedanywhereintheworld,beforetheinventionofpriceindexes,andlongbeforetheinventionofnationalincomeandproductaccountingHisdevelopmentofthequantitytheorywasbasedlargelyonpurelytheoreticalreasoning,thoughtestedinformallyagainsthisvasthistoricalknowledge,andhisbeliefinshortruncorrelationsbetweenchangesinmoneyandchangesinproductionwasapparentlybasedmainlyonhiseverydayknowledge(HecitesoneMonsduTotfortheassertionthat"inthelastyearofLouisXIV,moneywasraisedthreeseventhsbutpricesaugmentedonlyone"pInafootnotehecharacterizeshissourceas"anauthorofreputation,"butfeelsobligedto"confessthatthefactswhichheNOBELLECTURE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C)'X''~~~~~~~~~~~~~~to~~~~'~~~~~~~~~C*~~~~~~~Moneygrowth(percent)FIGIadvancesonotheroccasionsareoftensosuspiciousastomakehisauthoritylessinthismatter"Evenintheeighteenthcentury,itseems,thereweretensionsbetweentheoristsandeconometricians!)Thecentralpredictionsofthequantitytheoryarethat,inthelongrun,moneygrowthshouldbeneutralinitseffectsonthegrowthrateofproductionandshouldaffecttheinflationrateonaoneforonebasisThemodifier"longrun"isnotfreeofambiguity,butbyanydefinitiontheuseofdatathatareheavilyaveragedovertimeshouldisolateonlylongruneffectsFigure,takenfromMcCandlessandWeber(),plotsyear()averageannualinflationratesagainstaverageannualgrowthratesofMoverthesameyearperiod,foratotalofcountriesOnecanseethatthepointslieroughlyonthedegreeline,aspredictedbythequantitytheoryThesimplecorrelationbetweeninflationandmoneygrowthisThemonetaryaggregateusedinconstructingfigureIisM,butnothingimportantdependsonthischoiceMcCandlessandWeberreportasimplecorrelationofifMIisusedandifMO(themonetarybase)isusedTheyalsoreportcorrelationsforsubsetsoftheirIIcountrydataset:(withM)withonlyOECDcountriesandwithLatinAmericancountriesJOURNALOFPOLITICALECONOMY~~~c~~~~owa,,Money(M)growth(percent)FIGItisclearfromthesedata(andfromthemanyotherstudiesthathavereachedsimilarconclusions)thattheapplicabilityofthequantitytheoryofmoneyisnotlimitedtocurrencyreformsandmagicalthoughtexperimentsItapplies,withremarkablesuccess,tocomovementsinmoneyandpricesgeneratedincomplicated,realworldcircumstancesIndeed,howmanyspecificeconomictheoriescanclaimempiricalsuccessatthelevelexhibitedinfigureCentralbankersandevensomemonetaryeconomiststalkknowledgeablyofusinghighinterestratestocontrolinflation,butIknowofnoevidencefromevenoneeconomylinkingthesevariablesinausefulway,letaloneevidenceassharpasthatdisplayedinfigureThekindofmonetaryneutralityshowninthisfigureneedstobeacentralfeatureofanymonetaryormacroeconomictheorythatclaimsempiricalseriousnessMcCandlessandWeberalsoprovideevidenceoncorrelationsbetweenmoneygrowthandgrowthinrealoutput,averagedovertheperiodFigureistheirplotforthefullcountrydatasetfromtheInternationalMonetaryFundEvidently,thereisnorelationbetweentheseyearaveragesForexaminingshorttermItmustbesaidthattheevidenceoflongrunlinksbetweenmoneygrowthandoutputgrowthismoremixedthanonewouldinferfromfigMcCandlessandWeberfindaweakpositiverelationfortheOECDeconomiesBothpositiveandnegativecorrelationshavebeenfoundbyotherinvestigatorsonotherdatasetsNOBELLECTURE(a)O(b)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~,UIneoymntRXtUnempoyntRate(C)(d)::iIUnemploymentRatUnpoRat(C)W(eANYVe,eemCIAhIRatUPWRFIGInflationandunemploymentintheUnitedStatestradeoffs,ofcourse,onedoesnotwanttousesuchtimeaverageddataFigure,takenfromStockman(),providessixplotsofannualinflationratesagainstunemploymentratesforvarioussubperiodsoftheyears,fortheUnitedStatesPanelfplotsthePhillipscurve(afterAWPhillips)fortheentireperiodInthispanel,thetwovariablesappeartobecompletelyunrelatedOntheotherhand,thefivepanelsforsubperiods(oratleastforthesubperiodssince)seemtoshowaclear,negativerelationButthenlookattheaxesinthesesixpanels!Inordertoseeinflationandunemploymentaslyingonanegativelyslopedcurve,oneneedstokeepshiftingthecurveEvidenceontradeoffsisalsomarshaled,thoughinaverydifferentway,inFriedmanandSchwartz's()monographAMonetaryHistoryoftheUnitedStatesTheseauthorsshowthateverymajordepresJOURNALOFPOLITICALECONOMYsionintheUnitedStatesovertheperiodwasassociatedwithalargecontractioninthemoneysupplyandthateverylargecontractionwasassociatedwithadepressionTheseobservationsarecorrelationsofasort,too,buttheygainforcefromthesizeofthelargestcontractionsInaperiodsuchasthepostWorldWarIIyearsintheUnitedStates,realoutputfluctuationsaremodestenoughtobeattributable,possibly,torealsourcesThereisnoneedtoappealtomoneyshockstoaccountforthesemovementsButaneventsuchastheGreatDepressionofisfarbeyondanythingthatcanbeattributedtoshockstotastesandtechnologyOneneedssomeotherpossibilitiesMonetarycontractionsareattractiveasthekeyshocksintheyears,andinotherseveredepressions,becausetheredonotseemtobeanyothercandidatesSargent()alsoexamineslarge,suddenreductionsinratesofmoneygrowth(thoughnotreductionsinthelevelsofmoneystocks)Inhiscase,thesearethemonetaryandfiscalreformsthatendedfourofthepostWorldWarIEuropeanhyperinflationsThesedramaticreductionsingrowthratesofthemoneysupplydwarfanythinginFriedmanandSchwartzorinthepostwardatausedbyMcCandlessandWeberYetasSargentshows,theywerenotassociatedwithoutputreductionsthatwerelargebyhistoricalstandards,orpossiblybyanydepressionsatallSargentgoesontodemonstratethelikelihoodthatthesereductionsinmoneygrowthrateswerewellanticipatedbythepeopletheyaffectedand,becauseofvisibleandsuitablefiscalreforms,wereexpectedbythemtobesustainedInsummary,thepredictionthatpricesrespondproportionallytochangesinmoneyinthelongrun,deducedbyHumein(andbymanyothertheorists,bymanydifferentroutes,since),hasreceivedampleIwouldsaydecisiveconfirmation,indatafrommanytimesandplacesTheobservationthatmoneychangesinduceoutputchangesinthesamedirectionreceivesconfirmationinsomedatasetsbutishardtoseeinothersLargescalereductionsinmoneygrowthcanbeassociatedwithlargescaledepressionsor,ifcarriedoutintheformofacrediblereform,withnodepressionatallIIITheoreticalResponsesHumewasabletotheorizerigorously,and,aswehaveseen,withgreatempiricalsuccess,aboutcomparisonsoflongrunaveragebehavioracrosseconomieswithdifferentaverageratesofmoneygrowthForshortrunpurposes,ontheotherhand,hewasobligedtorelyonmuchlooserreasoningandroughempiricalgeneralizationsAseconomictheoryevolvedinthelastcenturyandmostofthisone,thedoublestandardthatcharacterizedHume'sargumentNOBELLECTUREwasperpetuatedThequantitytheoretic"neutralitytheorems"werestatedwithincreasingprecisionandworkedthroughrigorously,usingthelatestequipmentofstaticgeneralequilibriumtheoryThedynamicshadakindofpatchedinquality,fittingthefacts,butonlyinamannerthatsuggeststheycouldequallywellfitanyfactsPatinkininterpretsallofmonetarytheoryfromWicksell'sInterestandPrices()throughhisownMoney,Interest,andPricesasconcernedwithprocessesofadjustmentbetweenonequantitytheoreticequilibriumpositionandanother,conceivedasoutsidetheframeworkofgeneralequilibriumtheoryinawaythatseemstomeverymuchatthelevelofHume'sanalysisThepassagesondynamicsthatIcitedfromHumeinSectionIcouldbeslippedintoKeynes'sTreatiseonMoney()orHayek'sMonetaryTheoryandtheTradeCycle()withoutinducinganysenseofanachronismYetallthesetheoristswanttothinkingeneralequilibriumterm

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