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首页 Profits in the stock market.pdf

Profits in the stock market.pdf

Profits in the stock market.pdf

上传者: wallace 2012-12-16 评分 0 0 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《Profits in the stock marketpdf》,可适用于经济金融领域,主题内容包含ThisBookisaMUSTforallSeriousStockInvestorsandTradersOriginallywrittenin,"P符等。

ThisBookisaMUSTforallSeriousStockInvestorsandTradersOriginallywrittenin,"PROFITSINTHESTOCKMARKET"hadbecomeaclassicandacollector'sitemHMGARTLEYwasarenownedmarkettechnicianIn,beposthumouslyreceivedtheMARKETTECHNICIANSASSOCIATIONANNUALAWARDforhiscontributiontotechnicalanalysisIn"PROFITSINTHESTOCKMARKET,"GartleyshareshisknowledgeofsuchtopicsasMAJOR,INTERMEDIATE,ANDMINORTRENDSTENETSOFTHEDOWTHEORYTRIANGLESMOVINGAVERAGESGAPSVOLUMEOFTRADINGBREADTHOFTHEMARKETFIGURECHARTSSELECTINGTHERIGHTSTOCKSVPLUS桮ARTLEYGIVESDETAILEDINSTRUCTIONSONTRADINGWITHPRICEOSCILLATORSNowforthefirsttime,thisvaluableworkisavailableinthishardboundedition,completewithalloftheoriginalchartsLAMBERTGANNPUBLISHINGCOBoxOPomeroy,WashingtonHaroldMGartley,HaroldMGartleyhaslongbeenawellknownnameinthefieldoftechnicalanalysisBeginningasaboardboyandrunneronWallStreet,heevolvedintoamastertechnicianwhosetechniquesontradingthemarketsarestillusedtodayGartleywrotemanyarticlesonthestockmarkethuthisbestworkisconsideredtobehisbookProfitsintheStockMarketOfspecialinteresttomanytradersishischapter"VolumeofTrading"GartleyissaidtohavedunemoreworkonvolumethananvoneelseBumin,GartleygrewupinNewark,NewJerseyHeattendedtheNewarkTechnicalSchoolandthenNewYorkUniversitywherehereceivedhisBachelor'sDegreeinCommercialScienceandmMaster'sDegreeinBusinessAdministrationHebeganonWallStreetinOvertheyearshewasabroker,asecurityanalyst,andafinancialadvisorInaddition,GartlegavelecturetoursandprivatecoursesonthestockmarketthatwereattendedbymanyoftheprominentpeopleofWallStreetGartlevwasoneofthefoundersandanactivememberoftheNewYorkSocietyofSecurityAnalystsHealsofoundedtheWallStreetForumforyoungeranalystsFrom(in,GartleyworkedinthefieldoffinancialandshareholderpublicrelationsInhislateryearshewaschairmanofhisownfinancialpublicrelationsFirmuntilheretiredinOtherstockandcommoditymarketbooksavailablefromLambertGannPublishingCompanyYearsinWallStreetWDGannTruthoftheStockTapeWDGannWDGannStockMarketCourseWDGannCommodityCourseHowtoMakeProfitsinCommoditiesWDGarniTheTunnelThrutheAirWDGannABetterWaytoMakeMoneyBurtonPughTradersInstructionBookBurtonPughScienceandSecretsofWheatTrading桞urtonPughMasteringCotton桞urtonPughAstroCyclesandSpeculativeMarketsLJJensenPlusothersISendforourFBEEcatalogueLambertGannPublishingCoBoxOPomeroy,WashingtonPROFITSinthestockmarketbyHMGARTLEYCopyright,byHMGartleyCopyrightbyBillyJonesAllRightsReservedincludingthatoftranslationintoforeignlanguagesPRINTEDINUSAPublishedbyLambertGannPublishingCoBox,Pomeroy,WashingtonINTRODUCTION"ProfitsintheStockMarket"byHMGartleywasoriginallypublishedinAtthistimethebookwascontainedinathreeringbinderLessthancopieswereoriginallysoldIpurchasedthecopyrightsfromMrsGartleyinAfteralong,tediousjobofgettingthisclassicreprinted,"ProfitsintheStockMarket"isfinallycompleteinthishardboundeditionAlloftheoriginalchartsareenclosedinaseparateenvelopewhichaccompaniesthebookInordertoretainauthenticity,wehavenotredrawnanyofthechartsbuthavemadereproductionsfromtheoriginalsItmayinterestyoutoknowthattheMarketTechniciansAssociation,atitsFloridameetingrecently,gaveitsannualawardtoHMGartleyforhiscontributionstothefieldoftechnicalanalysisIbelieveyouwillfindthisbookwasworthwaitingforBillyJones,PublisherLambertGannPublishingCoPomeroy,Washington,TABLEOFCONTENTSITheTechnicalApproachtotheProblemofStockTradingIIChartsTheAveragesIIIAChartPortfolioIVTheLongTermandMajorTrendsVTheIntermediateTrendVITheMinorTrendVIITheTenetsoftheDowTheoryVIIITopsandBottoms,SupplyandDemandAreas,ReversalsIXTrianglesXTrendLinesXIMovingAveragesXIIGapsXIIINetChangeOscillatorsXIVVolumeofTradingXVBreadthoftheMarketXVIFigureChartsXVIIComparativeGroupandStockStudies(SelectingtheRightStocks)XVIIIProfitsintheStockMarket(Summary)IndexCHAPTERITHETECHNICALAPPROACHTOTHEPROBLEMOFSTOCKTRADINGREFERENCES"BusinessandInvestmentForecasting"RVance"BusinessofTradinginStocks,The"JDurand"BusinessCycles:TheProblemandItsSetting"WCMitchell"BusinessForecasting"LHHaney"BusinessStatistics"JLSnider"EconomicCycle,The"FYPresley"FinancialandBusinessForecasting"WFHickernell"ForecastingBusinessConditions"RNOwensCOHardy"ForecastingStockMarketTrends"KSVanStrum"InterestRatesandStockSpeculation"RNOwensCOHardy"InvestmentForAppreciation"()LLBAngas"PracticalApplicationofInvestmentManagement,The"DCRose"PracticalBusinessForecasting"DFJordan"PrinciplesofInvestment"JEKirschman"ScientificApproachtoInvestmentManagement,A"DCRose"SecurityAnalysis"GrahamDodd"SecurityPriceMovements"KGKarsten"StatisticalMethods"FCMills"StockMarket,The"CADice"StockMarket,The"SSHuebner"StockMarketProfits"RWSchabacker"StockMarketTactics"LLBAngas"StockMarketTheoryandPractice"RWSchabacker"TapeReadingandMarketTacticsHBNeill"TruthoftheStockTape,andtheWallStreetSelector"WDGannThisCourse,concerningthetechnicalapproachtothebusinessoftradinginstocks,isnottobeconsideredasthephilosophers'stoneofthestockmarketItdoesnot,byanymeanssuggestaperfectsolutiontotheproblemofstocktradingwhichwillenableeveryreadertobeginmakinghandsomestockmarketprofitsassoonashehasreadthelastwordTheaveragereadershouldleavethestockmarketalone,orlearnenoughaboutitsintricaciessothatintelligentactioncanbetakenintradingstocksItisthepurposeofthisCoursetoprovideameansoflearningsomeoftheimportantessentialsinastudyofthemarketThePrimaryObjectiveItisassumedthatthereadertakesupthisworkPHILOSOPHERS'STONE:ANIMAGINARYSTONE,ORSOLIDSUBSTANCEORPREPARATION,BELIEVEDTOHAVETHEPOWEROFTRANSMUTINGTHEBASERMETALSINTOGOLDORSILVERWEBSTERwithoneprimaryobjective,namelytomakemoneybyusingintelligentunderstandinginsteadofignorantgamblingTheobjectiveiseasytodefineHowever,theprocedureofaccomplishingitisfarfromsimple,inthatitrequiresadetailedpresentationofthefactorswhichappeartomake,aswellasthemannerinwhich,stockpricesadvanceanddeclineGamblingorSpeculationTherearetwochannelsofapproachwhichmaybetakeninattemptingtomakestockmarketprofitsWemayapproachtheproblemasagamblingproposition,asunfortunately(forthem)alltoomanypersonsattempttodoOrwemayapproachtheproblemasabusinessproposition,involvinggreaterthanusualrisk,butpayinggreaterthanusualprofitstointelligentandpatientparticipantsInsuggestingthesecondandmorelogicalofthesetwoapproaches,itmightbewelltopointoutthedifferenceInagamblingoperation,theparticipantdependsalmostwhollyuponchance(assumingthatitishonestlyrun),asoneoftwoormoreunpredictabledevelopmentsgovernsthedeterminationofprofitsorlossesInmanygamblingoperations,theriskisreducedtooneoftwochances,asboththemakerandtheacceptorofagivenwagerassumeexactlythesameriskForthemostpart,intelligenceisnotthegoverningfactorEverytimearoulettewheelturns,thereisanequalchancethatredorblackwillturnupQuitedifferentfromgamblingisspeculation,whereintheparticipantdepends(ifheistoprofit)uponareasonablypreciseknowledgeoftheconditionswhichgovernpricetrendsInspeculation,theparticipantreliesuponchangesinthepricelevel(stocks,commodities,services,etcetera),andnotthemereoperationsofchanceThesechangeshavetheirrootinsomespecificcauseManysuchcausesmaybestudiedandunderstood,andthusreasonablejudgmentmaybeappliedUnfortunatelyformostdabblersinWallStreet,thegamblingapproachismostoftenusedThereasonissimpleTheaveragepersonistoooftengovernedfirstbydownrightlaziness,andsecondlybythesillydesiretogainsomethingfornothingTheintelligentapproach,whereinstocktradingiscountedtobeabusiness,requiringcarefulattention,robsthestockmarketofitsromanticappealtomanypeopleIttakesmostofthefunoutofit,ifitbecomesajobrequiringpatienceandapplicationHowfutileitistoenterthestockmarketwithoutfullyrecognizingthatprofitscanbeonlyamatterofchance,unlessthemarketispatientlyandcarefullystudiedThemarketisacomplicatedmechanismAlthoughmanmade,andthuslogicallysubjecttointerpretationbyothermen,itscomplexworkingsrequireasystematicstudy,iflossesaretobeprevented,andprofitsmadeHaphazardorSystematicThedifferencebetweenlossesandprofitsfrequentlyhingesupontradinginahitormissfashion,orsystematizingone'sspeculationbystudyingtheproblem,estimatingtherisks,selectingwhatappearstobethemostprofitableopportunities,andadheringtoapreconceivedpolicyThedifferencebetweentheaverageinvestmentcounsellorandtheaveragecustomers'maninabroker'soffice,isthefactthattheformerconceivesaplanofoperation,baseduponasystematicapproachtoallthevariousanglesoftheproblemincludingtherequirementsofthecustomer,andconsistentlypursuesthispolicywhilethelattervaguelyattempts"tomakemoney"OurPurposeItisthepurposeofthiscoursetoencouragethereadertostudythemarketandtrainhimselftoarriveathisowndecisionsastotheprobablefuturecourseofstockprices,byusingcertainsystematicmethodswhichhaveprovedprofitabletosuccessfultradersMatterhasbeencollectedfrommanysourcesThephenomenaexplainedandillustratedrepresentmanyyears'workonthepartofmanymarketstudentsTheyshouldbethemeansofsavingthereadermanyhoursofpersonalresearchHowever,thumbingthroughthepageswhichfollowwillnotmakeasuccessfultraderofanyreaderTotakesomesingleideawhichispresented,becauseitseemstohavespecialappeal,andexpecttomakeconsistentprofitsbyusingitalone,isadangerousprocedureThroughoutthechapterswhichfollow,itwillbenotedthatthereareconstantwarningsthatthevarioustechnicalphenomenasuggestedmustbeused,notsingly,butaspartofaprograminvolvingmanydifferentanglesTwoPrimaryProblemsReducedtoitsfinalanalysis,successfulstocktradingboilsdowntothematterofansweringtwoquestions,namely:WHENtobuyorsellandWHATtobuyorsellAtfirstthought,andtohearsomeofthehangersoninthebrokerageofficestellthestory,makingmoneyinWallStreetisallverysimple,ifyouknow"whentogetinandwhentogetout"Although,asweshalllearn,thesolutiontothe"When"questionisextremelyimportant,itisalsoafactthatatradercanbefairlyrightinjudgingthereversalsinthetrendsofstockprices,andyetmakeonlyafractionofthepotentialprofitsavailable,becauseheisignorantofsystematicmethodstoassisthimintheselectionoftherightstocksThe"When"questionmaybeclassifiedasastudyoftrendsExceptforshortperiodsoftime,usuallyrangingforlessthantwoweeks,stockpriceshaveahabitofgoingsomewhereDuringthevastmajorityofthetime,theyareeitheradvancingordecliningThesuccessfultradermustbeconsciousofachangeintrendThusacontinualknowledgeofstockpricetrendsisessentialtothesuccessfultimingofcommitmentsThe"What"question,ontheotherhand,dependschieflyonobservationofthespecificcharacteristicsofindividualstockpricemovements,andmaybeclassifiedasastudyofcomparisonsThesolutionofeachofthesetwoproblems,whichareaboutofequalimportance,requiresequalattentionHowever,asthe"What"tobuyorsellproblemusuallycoversamuchbroaderscope,itrequiresagreateramountoftimeUsually,the"When"question,thatisthetimingofcommitments,isstudiedbyobservingthetrendsinthemarketasawhole,oratleastitsmajorpartsThe"What"question,whichistheselectionofstocks,isobservedbystudyingsmallgroupsandindividualissuesTwoApproachesItisthecustomofthoseinterestedinstockpricestrendstoapproachthesolutionsofthesetwoprimaryproblemsfromtwototallydifferentangles,eachofwhichmaybelogicallysubdividedintothesametwocategories,namely,"When"and"What"Thesetwoapproachesare:TheFUNDAMENTALapproachandTheTECHNICALapproachFundamentalApproachThefundamentalapproach,whichwillbereviewedonlybriefly,becausethiscourseconcernsthetechnicalapproach,maybeclassifiedintwogeneralcategories,namely:TheECONOMICandTheSTATISTICALTheeconomicfactorsmaybedesignatedasthosewhichdealwiththe"When"tobuyorsellquestion,whilethestatisticalfactorsarethosewhichconcernthe"What"tobuyorsellquestionThebroadeconomictrendsarestudiedtolearnthecauses,andanticipatethereversalsinstockpricecycles,whilethestatisticalfactorsarestudiedtodeterminetheindustriesandparticularcompanieswhichappearmoreorlessattractiveatsuccessiveintervalsEconomicFactorsStockpricesarethemeansbywhichinvestorsandtradersappraisetheeffectsofprosperityanddepressionDuringperiodsofprosperity,whenthegeneralleveloftradeandindustryishigh,thepricesofsharesrisetoreflectthatconditionConverselyinperiodsofdepression,thepricelevelofsharesfallstoreflecttheconverseconditionAstheeconomiccyclegoes,sogoesthetrendofstockpricesPrimarily,thechangesintheeconomiccyclearecausedbytherelationofsupplyanddemandforgoodsandservicesWhenthesefactorsaremoreorlessinbalance,thestateoftradeandindustrycarriesonataleveloftenvaguelytermednormalThefactorswhichmakeuptheeconomicpicturearebothforeignanddomestic,andcoverawiderangeTheaveragestocktraderwhohasnothadthespecialtrainingofaneconomicbackground,isnaturallygreatlyhandicappedinbeingabletoreducetheeffectsofnumerousenonomicchangestoapracticalworkingbasisfortradingstocksTheeconomicfactswhichappearonthefinancialpagesofthemetropolitannewspapersarehardlysufficientforthepurpose,becausetheyarenotsufficientlycomprehensiveorrelatedaccordingtotheirimportanceIncombingthefieldofinformationavailable,theauthorhasfoundthatthemostcompletepresentationoforganizedeconomicfacts,inconvenientgraphicform,appearsinthepublicationsofEconomicsStatistics,IncBecausethisserviceappearstomerittheattentionofthosestocktraderswhofeeltheneedofconciselysummarized,butcomprehensiveeconomicdata,whichhaveabearinguponstockprices,theauthorpresents,inAppendixIofthischapter,abriefdiscussionofthisservice,whichisbelievedtobeworthyoftheattentionofthereaderUnlesssomesuchsourceoforganizedinformationisemployed,theaveragestockmarkettraderisprobablybetterofftoleavetheeconomicsideofthefundamentalapproachoutofhiscalculationsexceptinaverygeneralwayStatisticalFactorsTheinvestigationottheconditionsofparticularindustries,andcompaniesinsuchindustries,isthemethodwhichthefundamentalstudentemploysinselectingthebestmediumsforinvestmentorspeculationThisstudyrequirestrainedconsideration,amultitudeoffactsconcerningthemanagementandoperationofmanylargeandcomplexcorporationsToreducetheinformationtoaconcretebasis,fromwhichtomakecommitments,itisnecessarythatthefinancialhistoryofthevariouscorporationsbestudiedInaddition,currentchangesmustbeconstantlyscrutinized,andrecognizedrelationsbetweengrossandnetearnings,profitsandlosses,assetsandliabilities,ascomparedwithstockpricetrends,mustallbecarefullyconsideredAsubstantialpartofthisinformationcanbeconvenientlychartedWhentheaveragetraderstartsouttomasterthislargevolumeofinformation,hesoonfindsthatanintelligentstudyofitisbeyondhisability,unlessthepertinentinformationisverybrieflysummarized,andtherefinedfiguresareconstantlyavailableTheoutstandingservicewhichpresentsthemajorityofthestatisticalfactors,customarilyusedinconnectionwithjudgingtheadvisabilityofbuyingorsellingparticularissues,ispublishedbyInvestographs,IncWiththeideaofguidingthereaderwhoisinterestedinthisbranchofthefundamentalapproach,adescriptionofthisservice,withillustrativecharts,appearsasAppendixIIofthisChapterFundamentalApproachAStudyofCausesThefundamentalapproachreceivesitsnamebyvirtueofthefactthatitisastudyoftheeconomicandstatisticalfactors,whichareconcededtobethecauseswhichinfluencetheriseandfallofpricesofsharesInvestmenttrustmanagersandinvestmentcounsellorsareconstantlypointingouttotheirshareholdersandclientsthattheonlylogicalapproachtotheproblemofsuccessfulinvestmentisnaturallythestudyofthecauseswhichunderliethepricechangesofinvestmentsecuritiesInrecentyears,particularlysince,ithasbeenfoundthattimeandagainthefundamentalapproachhasfallenshortofexpectations,apparentlybecauseofwhatmightbecalled"poortiming"ofbuyingandsellingFrequentlyithasbeenfoundthataparticularstockorgroupofstocks,whichfromthefundamentalfactsappearstoberelativelyoverpriced,continuestorisePINESTREET,NEWYORKCITYGIBBSSTREET,ROCHESTER,NEWYORKorconversely,agrouporindividualstockwhichseemstobesubstantiallyunderpricedrefusestoriseforalongperiodInvestigationofnumerouscases,whereinfundamentalcauseswhichwereknownrequiredaconsiderabletimetoshowbeforetheyappearedinasubstantialchangeinthepriceofshares,hasratherclearlyindicatedthat,inadditiontothefundamentalfactors,thereareapparentlyindirectpsychologicalfactorswhichdevelopinthemarketplace,todelaytheimmediateeffectsoffundamentalchangesSometimesthereisalag,a

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