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首页 通胀与通缩(Inflation and deflation)

通胀与通缩(Inflation and deflation).doc

通胀与通缩(Inflation and deflation)

Darren肇海
2018-11-06 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《通胀与通缩(Inflation and deflation)doc》,可适用于社会民生领域

通胀与通缩(Inflationanddeflation)通胀与通缩(Inflationanddeflation)First,checktheentryofbaiduTheexplanationforinflationisthatthemoneysupplyismorethanthephysicalsupply,whicheventuallycausesthepricetorise,whichiscalledinflationFriedman,thefounderofmonetarism,blamedinflationfortheissue,whichwaspopularbecauseitwaseasyforthepublictounderstandForexample,wehaveseenthatChina'sMhasbeenonrecordsinceitsrecord,anditsupwardslopeismuchhigherthanthatofordinarycommoditypricesThecorrespondingdeflationexplanationisthatmoneysupplyisreduced,commoditypricesfall,anddemandreduceseconomicdepressionMostgovernmentslikeinflation,becauseaslongasit'snotaviciousinflation,sopeoplethoughtthattheoveralleconomyisinarisingchannel,butalsotouseacatchword,weneedtosolvetheproblemindevelopment,sotheinflationisnotterrible,terribleisback,becausetheshipbigbadturnIfisdeflation,it'seconomicdeclineinchannel,alargenumberofunemployedandthepoormaycauseimpactonsocialstability,bothpublicandgovernmentdonotlike,specificconditionscanrefertothegreatdepressionofthegreatdepressionintheUnitedStatesandJapanThesearetextbookexplanationsthataretoosuperficialtounderstandtheworkingsoftheeconomyThebasicfunctionofmoneyisexchange,sothecurrencyistheflowattribute,notthestoragepropertyTheflowcanbeusedasametaphorforwater,sothecurrencyhasatleastthreeproperties,total,velocity,andflowThetotalquantityisM,thevelocityisaffectedbyinterestrate,andtheflowisregulatedbycapitalfreeallocationandgovernmentallocationLet'slookathowthesethreefactorsleadtoinflationanddeflationAcurrencyoverstatementjustshowsthesinglefeatureChinaisafixedlineexchangeratesystem,sotheinflowandolowofdollarswillhaveahugeimpactonChina'smonetaryaggregatesForthepastdecade,afloodofdollarshaspouredin,andthecentralbankhasissuedamassiveincreaseinthebasecurrencyIfitdoesnotadjustthemoneymultiplier(thereserverequirement)andtheexchangerate,thenMisforcedtogrowatahighrateRecentnews,saidforeignexchange,monetarypolicycanrelax,truemean,reservesdecrease,themonetarybase,itcanincreasethemoneymultiplier,whichislowerthedepositreserve,namelycanmaintaintheMconstantundertheconditionofmoderatewater,suchasyoulikeitButthedepositisnotunlimitedreduce,soalargenumberofolowof$situation,China'smonetaryaggregatesmustalsoisforcedtoreduce,thendeflationmustbefollowedAlotofpeoplethinkthatwecankeeptheMconstant,thatis,thedollarispumpedout,butthecentralbankdoesn'ttaketherenminbioutofthemarket,andit'susedtomaintainacertainamountofmoney,whichisalackofeconomicsenseAtbothendsofthecentralbank'sbalancesheet,theassetsarethedollarreserves,theliabilitiesaretheRMB,iftheassetsaregreatlyreduced,theliabilitiesarenotreduced,whichisinsolvencyAnyoneholdingrenminbiwoulddothesamething,sellingrenminbifordollarsThecollapseoftheexchangerateismorethanjustdeflationItistheeconomiccrisisthathasturnedintoasocialcrisisSointermsoftotalmonetarycontrol,thetotalvalveofinflationanddeflationisnotinthehandsofthepeople'sbankofChina,It'sinthehandsofamericansThefirstistoreformtheexchangeratesystemandsetupitsownmonetaryissuancemechanismiflargescaleinflationdeflationistobeavoidedThiscanbecomparedtothedevelopedcountries'bondmodelsTheassetsofthecentralbankareChinesegovernmentbonds,thecorrespondingliabilitiesarethecurrency,andthetotalamountofgovernmentbondscanbecontrolledbyChinaitself,withouttheneedtolookatthefaceoftheAmericanpeopleTheforeignexchangereservesareusedforexternalpaymentandtoensureasmoothexchangerateInthecaseofthetotalamountofmoney,thevelocityofmoneycorrespondstotheinterestrate,whichistheborrowingcostofcapital,whichiscrucialCapitalisborntoprofit,whichmeanstheaveragereturnoncapitalmustbegreaterthanthecostofcapitalTheformulacanbesimplifiedinthisway:(capitalinputlaborpriceexplicitfixedassetcostimplicitproductionrelationshipcost)capitalinvestment=capitalrateofreturnAssumingthatthereturnoncapitalisandthecostofborrowingis,thenetreturnoncapitalisForordinarycommodities,suchastheproductionofglass,aslongasthenetrateofreturnofcapitalispositive,thatmanufacturersmustincreaseinvestment,increaseproduction,ontheonehandistosupplyincreases,thedemandontheotherhandwillreducegradually,untilthesupplyanddemandcurvesintersect,thistimethenetrateofreturnofcapitalmaybereducedtoInthisprocess,manufacturerseitherraisethepriceofthewatercuporlowerthepricewithoutaffectingthebalanceofsupplyanddemand,butthepositionofthecurveisdifferentInidealconditions,setbywesternmacroeconomicsassumesthatallproducerstofullyprofitandcompetition,sothatonlytheinvisiblehandofthemarket,willmaketheproductionofglassnetcapitalyieldswillbeinfinitelyclosetozero,thesupplyanddemandandpricestability,intheory,thereisnoinflationButtheaboveisjusttheidealassumption,andthemostimportantpremiseisthattheproductsproducedbythemanufactureronlyhavecommodityproperties,whichcanbedeterminedbythesupplyanddemandaloneOnearth,iftheglasscanbeusednotonly,andnotbad,canholdtheirvalue,andevenavalueaddedfunction,thattherewillbeanotherscene,thistimeisequaltotheglasswiththefinancialattributesAcupthisyear'spriceisyuan,theyearisyuan,anddirectinvestmentofwateryieldis,removetheborrowingcostsby,sothenetrateofreturnofcapitalreached,farmorethanofcommodityattributewhenChangethiswaterglassintoahouseandunderstandtheworkingsofthissocietyReturnoninvestmentpropertyofnetcapitalisfarmorethantheaveragerateofreturnofsocialcapital,soalargenumberofsocialidlecapital,willdothesameaction,buyingproperty,getexcessreturnsoncapitalAsproducers,theywillbefranticallylendingtoBanks,providingmorehomes,and,asconsumers,willalsobewillingtolendtoBanksinlargequantities,earningexcessreturnsoncapitalTonoteatthistime,theproductionofthehouseandalittlebitofthecupisaessentialdifference,theproductionofthehousetherearelocalgovernmentintervention,thisisasubstantialsupplyofmonopoly,nocompetition,canbeartificiallyprolongthedurationoftheexcessprofit,theproductionofthecuptorawmaterials,thereisnomonopoly,eveniftheglasshavecapitalproperty,there'snowaytopushupforalongtimeIfthecentralbanksetthenominalinterestrateislowerthantherealestateinvestmentrateofreturn,ortherealestateindustry'slongtermnetcapitalreturnshigherthantheaveragereturnsinotherindustries,therealestatewillformablackhole,attractmoneyuntilthemonetarysocietysuckedcleanBorrowersinthisgamewithlocalgovernmentsenjoyalongtermexcessreturnoncapital,equivalenttoindirectenjoymonopolyprofits,andalargenumberofdepositorsweredrivenspreads,joinedthepartyWhetherthegamecancontinuecanbeviewedfromtheseaspectsThefirstiswhetherthesocialidledepositsintheclean,inthepastyears,alargenumberofdollarssurplusforthegamewithplentyofammunition,behindthedollarolowisalsoasceneofcourseSecond,whetherthenominalinterestrateincreases,resultinginnegativenetcapitalreturnsforrealestate,isregrettableWehaveseenthatnominalinterestratesarefarbelowrealyieldsofrealestateinthelongtermThird,thegameintoFengKuangQi,Banksrunoutofbullets,lendersonlythroughotherchannelsoffinancing,thenreturnoncapitalwillnotbeabletoseethenominalinterestrate,needtoreturnoncapitalminustherealinterestrateAslongasthenetreturnispositive,thegamehasareasontoplayThistime,ofcourse,alotofpeoplehavebeenwiserandnopainstodevelopnecessarypropertyorinvestmentproperty,directlendingthemoneytogoout,youcangainexcessreturnishigherthanbankinterestrates,thisiswhatweseeofusuryGovernmentalsoknowthatthisgamecan'tplayforalongtime,dowhatthings,priceforpurchasing,ismainlyusedtorestrictthesocialcapitaltotherealestateconcentration,buttheeffectisonlyastonewall,inthemiddleofthegap,carryonbothsidesofthecauseofwaterlevelisdifferent,aslongasadrivingforce,capitalcanflowthroughdifferentchannelstorealestate,untilthewaterlevelonbothsidesarethesameIt'sabubblethat'sgoingtoburst,andiftherealestatestaysabovethesocialaverage,that'sgoingtodriveeveryoneawayfromthepropertysectorIfit's,yuanasetofprices,it'sgoingtobethousandyuan,andifit'smillion,it'sgoingtobe,Thisrateofreturnwillalwaysexceedthesocialaveragerateofreturn,andthelaterinvestmentwillbeastronomicalCandothebodymetaphor,ifonehandtoabsorbnutrientsthanotherpartsoftheaverageabsorptionability,thebody'snutrientaliketothishandabove,whatistheresultThishandwillonedaysurpassthisperson,astheprincipleofcancercellsisthesame,thecrazyabsorptionofnutritionbutnottheactualfunctionRealestateisthesame,theannualpricerises,ourwealthincreasesNo,it'sbecauserealestatesucksthewealthoutofothersectors,thesocietyisthesameasthehumanbody,it'sanorganism,andthat'sobviouslynotsustainableWhenrealestaterunsoutofthewealthofsociety,thereisnowaytokeeppushingitupWhyisitthatforsuchalongperiodoftime,oneistheinflowofdollarcapitaloverthepastyears,andthesecondisthatthelocalgovernmentACTSasaproducer,controllingthelandsupplyforalongtimeandearningexcessprofits,Theseprofitsarealsousedasurbanconstruction,providingacircularimpetusforlandappreciationThird,longtermspreadshaveledtoasteadystreamofsocialcapitalammunitionThiscrazygame,realestatefinancialattributeshavebeenalmostreplacedthecommodityattribute,unabletorise,itisareturntocommodityattribute,youwillfindthatthecreditbubbleandcapitalconcentrationhasproducedgoodstoomuch,muchmorethantheactualdemandThat'swhensupplyanddemandareatthetopoftheequation,andthat'sthepricecollapseofthebubble,andthat'swheresupplyanddemandcanberebalancedInretrospect,wefoundthatthenominalinterestratewaslowerthantheaveragenetreturnonsocialcapitalSocapitalhastheincentivetoinvest,sothatthecycleofproductionandconsumptioncanbepromotedSodevelopedcountriesgenerallytolerateacertaindegreeofinflation,butindevelopingcountries,thenetreturnoncapitalisgenerallyhigherbecausethereisnotenoughcompetitionOnenetreturnsofcapitalinthesociety(fronthousingexample)thanthesocialaveragereturns,willbringthecreditbubbleandbubble,thistimedependsonwhethertheprojectwillaffectthelifeoftheordinarypeople,ifitisworksofartinvestmentbubble,evenifpricesriseintotheair,withordinarypeopledonothaveanyrelationship,butthebenefitiscanabsorbfundsButrealestateisthemostimportantitemassociatedwiththecostoffixedassets,thedailynecessitiesofeachperson,thepriceofthecup,andthepeoplecanusethebowlButrealestatehasnochoice,becauseyoudon'tallowyourselftobuildahouseFortheborrowersinthisgame,theyencounterisdeflation,becauseotherthingsrelativelyrealestateintherapiddrop,theyneedtodaytheamountoffundscontinuetokeeptherateofreturnonrealestateForsavers,theyrunintoinflation,becauserealestatedirectlyaffectsrents,andthusthecostoflivingManyeconomists,somepeoplesayinflation,somepeoplearesayingdeflation,buttheyarewrongIt'slikeamanwho'sfat,unbalanced,halfnaked,andthin,andsomeonesaysthisguy'safatguy,andsomesaythisguy'sskinnyInfact,thispersonissick,theprescriptionisnotdietmedicinenottoaddfertilizerNow,thescenariothatwehavenow,somepeoplesaythatinflationnowneedstobetightenedquickly,andsomepeoplesaythatitisnowdeflationaryanditneedstobereleasedTheyallseemtohaveapoint,buttheydon'tgettothepointWeneedtoadjustthespread,sothatthepropertycanbereturnedtotheproperty,sothatthebasiclifeofthepeoplecanbeguaranteedThewealthmythofrealestate,formostpeople,isjustadream,andforthissociety,it'sjustadiseaseWe'regoingtohaveanewproblemwiththehousingpriceInthefirstyears,thebalancesheetofallborrowersexpandedandexpanded,andalldepositors'balancesheetswerestillinplace,leadingtohugedisparitiesofwealthinsocietyIfthepriceofthepropertycomesdownandtheassetisreduced,thentheliabilitieswillbehigherandthecashwillbeworthmoreWehavetwooptions,oneistopayoffthedebt,theotheristowriteoffthedebt,TosaynothingistoprintmoneyTheexportandthecreditoftheloanareinthebank,ifonlyborrow,donotrecycle,thentheinflationinthebackispredictableTheroleofthebanktoreducetheinterestrateistoincreasetheflowofwateroutlet,reducetheflowofwaterintake,sothatthefundsinthissocietyremainabundantandreducethecostoffinancing,whichisaneconomicstimulusIfthebankraisesinterestratestomorethanpercent,itcanbeimaginedthattheflowofwaterfromtheoutlet,thepowertopumpthesociety,thecostoffinancingishigherthantheinvestmentincome,nooneiswillingtoinvestAslongasthewaterpipesareunimpeded,wecanuseinterestratestoregulatetheflowoffundsSodon'tbeafraidthatthere'stoomuchM,andinterestratescangoup,andyoucaneffectivelyreducethevelocityofmoney,sothatinflationwillnaturallydisappearThisrateisalsolimited,ofcourse,youcanseethehyperinflationoftherepublicofChinaera,whenpeoplearerunning,theproblemismonetarycirculationspeedisfast,highinterestratescounterproductiveHere'sthecomparisonbetweendeflationinJapanandinflationinChinaJapan'shousingbubbleburst,aswellasalargeamountofdebt,andtheJapanesenationalcharacterandsystemchoseaconcertedactiontopaytheirdebtsEvenifthebojhasrepeatedlycutinterestrates,theBanksneedtoprotectthemselvesandtheeconomyisstillfalling,andborrowingmoneywillonlycreatemorebaddebtsAndJapanesefirmsarereluctanttoborrowbecausemostJapanesearestrugglingtopaytheirdebts,repairingtheirbalancesheetsandspendinglessLargescaleinfrastructurestimulus,justincreasethegovernment'sdebt,theseliabilitiesareapparentlysimilartoChina'slocaldebt,thereisnowaytoservicing,thehigherthedebtpiledup,theJapanesegovernmentisalsoverypatient,nowrittenoff,tosuffersilentlyInaddition,Japan'seconomicdevelopment,mainlyrelyonexternaldemand,formedtheexternaldemandisrealprofit,andprofititselfisinthepocketoftheJapanese,theJapanesecurrencymechanismbelongstothefloatingexchangerate,thebubbleburst,isnotalargeamountofforeigncapitalwiththeprofitreturnNordidithaveanyimpactonJapan'sexchangerateInChina,mostpeopleinChinaarestillrelativelysimple,butthespiritofcontractisnotstrongIftherearealotofdebt,themostsimpleideaisthehousebacktothebank,realestatespeculatorsaremorein,willbethefirsttimeabandondebtandhouseatthesametime,thesewillinevitablyincreasethebank'sbaddebtsLookatanotherimportantborrowers,localgovernments,theinfrastructureingeneralisanegativecashflow,itisimpossibletoservicing,blackholeswillbebornebythebank,alsotheirliabilitiesMostofChina'sBanksareinthecountry,andwhentheystartedlending,theywerealllisteningtotheorders,andtheydidn'thavetotakeresponsibilityfortheirproblemsOrlendtheloanofficerdidn'tconsideredwhenneedtorecoverafterthemoney,itiswiththegreatdepressionintheUnitedStates,Japan,thegreatdepressionofthebankthedistinctionthathavingessence,fromtheloanofficertothegovernor,nobodyneedtoresponsibleforthecollection,becauseyoudon'tneedtoworryaboutfailureIntheend,theBankswerenotabletowithstandalotofbaddebts,becauseduringtherecession,Bankswerelessprofitable,unabletopaytheirdebtsorgobankruptSotheonlyoptionistowriteoffthebadloans,andwe'vedonealotofthemCashflow,wefoundthatyourpipezhang'sbiggerthantherest,becauseyoudon'tneedtoworryaboutrecycling,atthetimeofmoneyneedtotakeback,wehavefoundthatborrowersneverthoughtalsomoneyDeflationispainful,andthatcanonlybesolvedininflationHowever,thepeoplewhoaresufferingfromthehardshipareoftenthepeoplewhoareatthebottomIt'snoteasytowaitforyears,butthetruthisstillcruelUnlikeJapan,China'sfixedexchangeratesystemissimilartosoutheastAsiancountriesandArgentina,capitalinflows,andatthebottomoftheindustry,wedecidedtothesocietyanddidn'tgetmuchrealprofits,justtosaveafewmoneyAtthesametime,wewillencountercapitalolowwhileprintingmoneyonalargescale,sotheexchangeratesystemmustbegreatlyaffectedUnlikebefore,wecanclosethedoorandmakeacaseforourselvesNowweneedalargenumberofimportedfood,whichdeterminestheriskofprintingmoneytofilltheblackholeisenormous,currencydevaluationwillleadtoaviciousinflation,thisisfromtheeconomicboom,totheeconomicdepression,totheprocessofcurrencycrisisandsocialcrisisAlotofpeoplemightseeitasasignofdesperation,howcanwegetoutofthiscomingdepressionTheoperationofthewholewealthsocietyisregulatedbytwohandsTheeconomicfront,wewillfindthatmonetarypolicyhavelostfunction,theinvisiblehandcontinuetoprintmoney,willletthepoormorepoor,havetherichcontinuetogetrichmyths,ifquietlypay,thepoorhavenoabilitytocontinuetopay,andthewealthoftherichpersoncanstillenjoybeforeAllthatremainsistorelyonthetangiblehandoffinancetomakethecompulsorydistributionofwealthThisisthelastpoint,themoneyflowregulationRealestate'slongtermmonopolyprofits,lowproducelongtermmonopolyprofits,theaveragesocialbusinessprofitsislowerthantherealestatereturns,lowinterestratestopromotethecreditboom,monetaryfocustotheflowofrealestate,eventuallyformahugebubble,thisisthepoweroftheinvisiblehandTospinouttheprofitsoflocalgovernmentandrealestateprofits,getridofthemonopoly(thiswehavebeendoing,propertytaxandlocalgovernmentdebt)andontheaccumulatedprofitsofrealestatewealthintercepting,redistributedtothepublicItalsoimposesfinancialsubsidiesonthepoorandtaxesonmonopolistsandpropertydevelopers,whichisthepowerofthevisiblehandApartfromeconomicmeans,otherpolicyinstrumentsareneededForthereformofthebankingsystem,thereisnoprofitdrivenandcapitalconstrainedbankItmustbeamessanddeathStateownedandlocalgovernments,withoutcapitalconstraintsandregulation,willalwayshavetoconsiderborrowingwithoutconsideringrepaymentReformofthecurrencyissuingmechanismwouldcutthefed'shandsontheChinesecurrencySubsidiestodepositors,longtermnegativeinterestrates,willonlyleavethecountry'scitizenslosingconfidenceinthegovernmentandthuslosingitsfootingRestrictingsocialmonopolyprofiteering,notsufficientcompetition,mustbethesocialresourcestomonopolizethedepartmentThegovernmenteventuallybrokeawayfromproductionandconsumption,TheroleoftheregressivedistributorDonotbelieveinthetheoryoffreeeconomists,whichiscalledwinnertakeall,andtheresultofeatingthepooristheendofwinnersandlosersUsingthevisiblehandandinvisiblehandtoadjusttheallocationofresourcesatthesametime,thegoalisalwaystiltedtothepoor,makethembecomethemiddle,becausethesearethemostofthesociety,onlythesepeopledidnothavethemedicaleducationofhousingendowmenttroublebackathome,suchastheywillgotoconsumption,domesticdemandwilltruly,sothatChina'seconomicrecoverynaturallyHumanirrationalandgovernmentinactionwouldinflationanddeflationintoafarceofboomandbust,cannotcountonpublicreason,onlythegovernmentthedistributordeterminestheeconomicfluctuationsoftheamplitudeandintensity,ifthetwohandsofnormal,thentheinflationanddeflationisnolongerasubjectofdebate

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通胀与通缩(Inflation and deflation)

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