多元线性回归分析法
例1:对某大坝进行位移观测,为预测最大位移量,选取了与最大位移量有
关的水位和坝体温度作自变量,以历史上若干年的观测资料为样本,用回归分析
求预测方程。自变量观测数据如下
表
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:
序号 水位 温度 位移 1 6.81 6.57 15.40 2 -0.98 9.53 13.20 3 9.52 7.79 15.26 4 -6.70 12.32 11.33 5 6.52 9.88 13.32 6 5.34 8.26 14.60 7 -0.65 7.55 12.16 由回归分析法数学模型是:
Y,X,,,
再根据
题
快递公司问题件快递公司问题件货款处理关于圆的周长面积重点题型关于解方程组的题及答案关于南海问题
意,可知大坝的位移与水位和温度的变化有关,前后观测了7组数
j,2m,2n,7据。由此可得影响因子,变形量,待估
参数
转速和进给参数表a氧化沟运行参数高温蒸汽处理医疗废物pid参数自整定算法口腔医院集中消毒供应
。
用矩阵表示因变量、自变量、参数为:
1xx16.816.5715.40,,,,,,1121,,,,,,1xx1,0.989.5313.201222,,,,,,
,,,,,,1xx19.527.7915.261323,,,,,,X,,1xx因变量: 自变量: 1,6.7012.32Y,11.331424,,,,,,
,,,,,,1xx16.529.8813.321525,,,,,,1xx15.348.2614.60,,,,1626,,
,,,,,,1xx1,0.657.5512.161727,,,,,,
,,,0,,,,,待估参数: 1,,
,,,2,,
,1T,,,,XXbj,0,1,2,假设存在,即可得到参数的估计为: j
14.6510,,,,1,,TT,,0.2007B,,XXXY ,,
,,-0.1821,,
由回归系数估值可求回归方程:
14.8211,,
,,12.7189,,
,,15.1427,,,,Y,XB,11.0631,,
,,14.1601 ,,14.2184,,
,,13.1457,,残差:
,
V,Y,Y
Y,13.61自变量Y的平均值
(1)回归方程显著性检验
27,,, S,y,y,11.9851,,,回,,i,1
27,,, S,y,y,2.4747,,,残,,i,1
m,2,n,7
Sm11.98512回 F,,,9.6863,,,,Sn,m,12.47477,2,1残
,,F2,4,6.94根据查表的 0.05
F,F(2,4)因为,所以回归方程显著。 0.05
(2)回归系数显著性检验
7.8750,0.1985,0.8170,,,1,,T,,,,0.19850.00950.0194Q,,XX的协因数: ,,,,,,,,,0.81700.01940.0854,,
c,0.0095,c,0.0854所以, 1122
2,2c,0.20070.0095111 F,,,6.87741,,Snm,,12.47474残
2,
c,-0.18210.0095222 F,,,0.6273 2,,Snm,,12.47474残
,2c,jjj ~F(1,n,m,1)(Sn,m,1)残
,,F1,4,7.71根据查表的 0.05
,F,F(1,4),F,F(1,4)X,所以先剔除参数及自变量 因,210.0520.052)剔除X2后重新建立回归方程 (3
1x16.8115.40,,,,,,11,,,,,,1x1,0.9813.2012,,,,,,
,,,,,,1x19.5215.2613,,,,,,X,,因变量:1x 自变量: 1,6.70Y,11.3314,,,,,,
,,,,,,1x16.5213.3215,,,,,,1x15.3414.60,,,,16,,
,,,,,,1x1,0.6512.1617,,,,,,
,,,0,,待估参数: ,,,1,,
,12.9233 ,, 1,TTXY,,,,BXX,,0.2420 ,,
)回归方程显著性检验 (4
由回归系数估值可求回归方程:
14.5716,,
,,12.6861,,
,,15.2275,,,,Y,XB,11.3016,,
,,14.5014 ,,14.2158,,
,,12.7660,,
残差:
,
V,Y,Y
Y,13.61自变量Y的平均值
27,,, S,y,y,11.5971 ,,,回,,i,1
27,,, S,y,y,2.8627 ,,,残,,i,1
m,1,n,7
Sm11.59711回 F,,,20.2552 ,,,,Sn,m,12.86277,1,1残
F,,1,5,6.61根据查表的 0.05
F,F(1,5),6.61因为,所以回归方程显著。 0.05
(5)回归系数显著性检验
0.18350.0143,,,,1T,的协因数: ,,,,QXX,,,,,,0.01430.0051,,,
c,0.0051所以, 11
,22c,0.2420 0.0051111F ,,,20.0627 1,,Snm,,12.8627 4残
F,,1,5,6.61根据查表的 0.05
,
F,F(1,5),6.61因,所以显著,即水位与大坝位移间线性关系显著 ,10.051