中国房地产市场的发展【外文翻译】

中国房地产市场的发展【外文翻译】 本科毕业设计( 论文 政研论文下载论文大学下载论文大学下载关于长拳的论文浙大论文封面下载 ) 外 文 翻 译 原文: Development of China’s Real Estate Market Over the past two decades, real estate has evolved from government controlled to a commercial product, emerging and developing into an important component of China’s financial markets. Although the overall gross domestic product (GDP) and income levels have been growing rapidly, the even-faster rising housing costs have exacerbated the problem of housing affordability. Real estate development has become a key factor in China’s economic growth, as real estate has become an essential part of the overall functioning of the economy. Recent signs following the global financial crisis suggest that China’s real estate market has bottomed and may be on its way to a rebound. In the long run, this market offers lucrative investment opportunities for domestic and foreign investors. The government owned, controlled, and managed all real estate in China under a socialist central-planning system until 1988, when reform in this sector started (Fung, Huang, Liu, and Shen 2006). Since then, a market-based real estate industry has gradually developed, related legislation was enacted, and various types of real estate services have emerged. During this period, real estate in China has changed from a public to a commercial product. Although the state remains the owner of land in name, the rights of land use and land improvements are now commonly privately owned. The privatization effort has driven the growth of the real estate industry, and has made it possible for many modern business practices to be introduced into China. In recent years, China’s real estate market has demonstrated increasing integration with real estate markets in other parts of the world, with almost synchronous ebbs and flows. This gave rise to imbalances between supply and demand, increasing real estate price volatility. In addition, the Chinese economy has been growing at one of the fastest rates in the world, leading to rising disposable income levels. The increase in housing prices have actually outpaced income growth, thereby exacerbating the affordability problem. A comparison between the inland area and the more affluent coastal area finds that the latter’s housing affordability problem has been more severe. Nevertheless, since 1997, the heavy investment in the real estate sector has provided an important impetus for overall economic growth, by stimulating the demand for many other industries, including machinery, steel, electronics, chemical products, and architecture. This is especially important for the economy of a country like China, where savings rates are high and consumption share in the GDP is relatively low. Another important development in recent years is the real estate market’s increasing integration with its counterparts in other countries. For instance, the real estate bubble between early 2003 and late 2007 and the ensuing rapid cool-off coincided with many other markets. The global financial crisis exacerbated the decline, giving rise to a host of problems including widespread mortgage loan defaults, negative net worth families, and aborted construction projects. This global integration both poses serious challenges and brings opportunities to domestic and foreign investors. Challenges Although China’s real estate market is still in a relatively early stage of development in comparison to the United States and other developed markets, China’ s real estate boom between 1998 and 2007 was one of the biggest in the world. During this period, the average annual growth rate for real estate investment was 22.1 percent, more than double the average GDP growth rate of 9.4 percent. In particular, theaverage annual growth between 2000 and 2007 exceeded 20 percent, and surpassed 30 percent every year between 2003 and 2007 (Pan 2009). However, beginning in the second half of 2007, China’s real estate market took a big tumble, resulting in substantial losses for real estate investors. The recent cyclical changes in the real estate market and the global financial crisis exemplify the inherent risk in real estate investments. However, much like the Chinese word “crisis,” composed of the signs for “danger” and “opportunity,” challenges and opportunities go hand-in-hand. Opportunities Due to the special features of its political decision-making system, the Chinese government has quickly formulated and put into effect numerous policies and regulations to address the sharp decline in the real estate market.“China is unusual in that it has this incredible capacity to mobilize all its institutions,” said Vikram Nehru, the World Bank’s chief economist for Asia (Batson 2009). Because the downturn that began in the second half of 2007 caused many economic and social problems, many policies and regulations favorable to real estate market participants were enacted by both the central and local governments and took effect in 2008. These included reducing mortgage interest rates, lowering payment requirements, extending mortgage loan terms, relaxing or eliminating the caps on loans from the housing Public Accumulation Fund, conversion of commercial mortgage loans to government-backed ones, reducing or removing the housing deed tax, offering direct subsidies to house buyers, relaxing regulations on second-house purchases, and eliminating the real estate stamp tax (Fung et al. 2006). By the end of the first quarter of 2009, the real estate market in China had started to show signs of recovery. Although housing prices still remain at a relatively low level, Cheng (2009) reported that many cities saw increases in housing transactions as compared to the same period last year, including Beijing (6.28 percent), Shanghai (27.89 percent), Tianjin (15.77 percent), and Nanjing (9.17 percent). This recovery can be attributable to the aforementioned stimulative policies and regulations and, more importantly, to the recent rapid expansion of the money supply. According to statistics released by the People’s Bank of China, as of the end of February 2009, various loan balances at financial institutions were RMB33.06 trillion, a 24.17 percent increase over one year ago. In particular, the balances rose by RMB1.07 trillion in the month of February alone, a whopping jump of 441 percent over the increase in the same month a year ago. In addition, a good portion of the recently announced RMB4 trillion (US$585 billion) economic stimulus program was aimed to boost fixed assets and housing investments and expected to further revive the real estate market. By the end of February, real estate-related stocks traded on the 90 The Chinese Economy. Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges recorded considerable gains, and China’s real estate stock index gained over 40 percent. It is uncertain how long the world financial crisis will last and how much impact it will have on China’s real estate market, but the market appears to have bottomed out. Some economists have predicted that China will be among the first to come out of the global downturn. Batson (2009) argued that China’s economy will turn a corner as the RMB4 trillion stimulus program kicks in, as evidenced by rising crude oil and iron ore imports, record monthly car sales figures, improved manager confidence, a 34.24 percent rise in the Shanghai Composite stock index, and rising real estate sales. Anderlini (2009) also reported a rebound in real estate capital spending and transaction volumes, and the first slight rise in month-on-month prices in March 2009 since July 2008. From our perspective, there might still be considerable fluctuations and risks in the long run, however, China’s real estate market is expected to offer lucrative returns and rewarding opportunities for domestic and foreign investors. The Real Estate Industry and the Overall Economy China’s economy has been growing at one of the fastest rates in the last decade. There are many reasons for this growth, and real estate development is one of them. Unlike in many Western developed economies, where consumption accounts for 60 to 80 percent of the overall GDP, consumption only constitutes about 40 percent of the Chinese economy. Thus, investments, especially those in real estate and infrastructure, play a critical role in China’s economic development. China’s GDP grows at an annual rate of 10.9 percent, while real estate capital, or the newly-created value of real estate through investment, expands at a faster rate of 13.0 percent. Real estate capital as a percentage of GDP increased from 36.7 percent in 1997 to 42.6 percent by 2005. These percentages are at about the same level as the weights of consumption in the economy, suggesting that consumption and real estate investment are of approximately the same importance to the overall economy. Actually, real estate investment has risen during this period, in view of its steadily increasing weight in the GDP, in contrast to the decreasing share of consumption. Second, as urban areas dominate China’s economy, urban fixed-asset investments account for the majority of real estate capital, growing at an annual rate of 18.6 percent. In the mean time, over 60 percent of these investments are construction and installation projects, expanding at an even faster annual rate of 18.8 percent. Thus, it can be argued that construction and installation projects drive the growth of urban fixed-asset investments. These drive the growth of the overall real estate industry, which, in turn, drives the growth of the overall economy. Third, the construction of new urban areas (roads, bridges, and other infrastructure) and housing represents the main component of construction and installation projects. New urban areas, completed between 1997 and 2005, and comprising 12,307 square kilometers, accounted for 37.8 percent of the total urban area as of the end of 2005. The new urban housing comprising 10.34 billion square meters, completed during the same period, constituted 62.9 percent of total housing. Meanwhile, the cumulative newly constructed 744,700 kilometers of highways and 33,643 kilometers of new expressways represent 38.6 percent and 91.7 percent, respectively, of the total roadways at the end of the period. These high percentages demonstrate the exceptional efforts by the government to improve and expand housing and infrastructure during this period. Fourth, government expropriations of land, actually mainly of rural land, are the main source of supply. Cumulative land expropriations between 1997 and 2005 added up to 10,996 square kilometers, accounting for 89.4 percent of the new urban january–february 2010. As most of this is arable land, such fast urbanization did, to a certain degree, negatively affect agricultural production, and create some social issues. But on the other hand, as then-premier Zhu Rongji argued, it provided the indispensable foundation for further economic development. The construction of roads, highways, and expressways provides another impetus for economic growth by serving as a platform for local governments to utilize financial resources and stimulate local economies. China has one of the highest savings rates in the world, usually above 40 percent. Chinese banks, mostly owned and operated by the government, attract vast amounts of capital. The immature and volatile capital markets have not been able to provide outlets for this capital. In light of this, the government adopted the policy of “borrow to build, and use the toll to repay” in road construction. By 2006, 96 percent of expressways (about 39,500 km), 70 percent of Level 1 highways (about 26,900 km), and 46 percent of Level 2 highways (about 113,000 km) had been completed using this approach. Between 2004 and 2006, the highway administrations of several provinces provided net government investments of only RMB2.11 billion, but the total bank capital that road construction projects utilized amounts to RMB60.3 billion, with a ratio of bank capital to net government investments of RMB28.6 billion. This means that RMB1 billion of net government spending in this area results in RMB28.6 billion of bank capital being utilized, creating a sizeable ripple effect in the economy. The banks, in fact, often compete for such lending opportunities because of the role played by local governments and the lucrative toll funds that result from these projects. More important, most such government investments turn out to be profitable, with revenues of RMB16.01 billion far exceeding expenditures of RMB12.76 billion. Conclusions Over the past two decades, China’s real estate has evolved from government controlled to a commercial product. The real estate market has emerged and developed into an important component of China’s financial markets. This market has quickly been integrated into the world market, as demonstrated by its cycle, which has generally coincided with those in other countries. The higher volatility in housing prices, a byproduct of such integration, could become an important issue that investors and authorities need to examine closely in the future. Although the overall GDP and income levels have been growing rapidly, the even-faster rising housing costs have exacerbated the housing affordability problem, appearing to be more serious in the more affluent coastal areas. Real estate development has become a key factor in China’s economic growth and an essential part of the overall functioning of the economy. On the other hand, if China’s economy can maintain healthy growth in the current world economic environment, it will be able to further stimulate the demand for bigger and better housing. The decline in China’s real estate market since the second half of 2007 and the ongoing world financial crisis have posed serious challenges to market participants. But there have been signs recently that suggest the market has bottomed and may be on its way to a rebound. In the long run, we believe this market offers lucrative investment opportunities for domestic and foreign investors. SOURCE:Hung-Gay Fung,Jau-Lian Jeng,Qingfeng Liu，2010，“Development of China's Real Estate Market” ，The Chinese Economy,vol. 43, no. 1, January– February 2010, pp. 71–92 译文: 中国房地产市场的发展 在过去的20年里, 对中国金融市场而言，房地产市场已经从政府控制发展 成为一项商业产品,演变与发展成一个重要组成部分。虽然整个国内生产总值 (GDP)和收入水平一直在增长快速，导致了住房成本的持续上涨也加重了人们对 住房的承受能力。房地产开发已成为一个关键因素,中国的经济发展，随着房地 产已成为整个功能性经济的一个基本组成部分了。近年来全球金融危机影响中国 的房地产市场陷入低谷，或者可能在某种程度上有所反弹。从长远来看,这个市 场为国内外的投资者提供了有利的投资机会。 从社会主义开始中央统筹直至1988年为止，当改革开放政策实行开始，政 府就已经拥有、控制和管理了所有中国房地产行业。从那以后,以市场为基础的 房地产业已逐步发展，相关的立法得以颁布，以及不同类型的房地产服务也出现 了。在此期间,中国已发生了巨大变化，就是房地产从公共产品变为商业产品。 尽管土地的所有权名字还是国家，但土地的利用权力与土地的使用现今都已经普遍私有化了。国有企业民营化的努力已驱动房地产业的增长,并使许多先进的商业运行模式被引进到中国。 近年来,我国的房地产市场已经证实与世界其他地方的房地产市场日益一体化甚至于几乎同步衰退和进步。这引起了供给与需求之间的不平衡,提高了房地产市场价格的波动。此外,中国是经济发展速度最快的国家之一,导致了收入水平之间的巨大差距。 房屋价格大幅度的增加脱离了收入增长的幅度,从而在实际上加剧了购买力的问 题 快递公司问题件快递公司问题件货款处理关于圆的周长面积重点题型关于解方程组的题及答案关于南海问题 。和内陆较富裕的沿海地区比较后发现,国民的居住均衡问题更加严重。 然而,自从1997年开始,大量投资房地产领域这一行为为全面的经济增长提供了一个重要的推动力,还刺激了国家内需,其中包括许多其他的工业，例如机械产业、钢产业、电子产品、化工产品和建筑产业等。在像中国这样的储蓄率高和消费GDP份额较低的国家，这是极为重要的经济。 另一个重要的发展是近年来中国的房地产市场与其他国家的日益整合。例如,之前的于2003年初到2007年底发生了房地产泡沫,而与此同时,随之而来的许多其他的国家的房地产市场也随着冷却。全球金融危机加剧的下降,产生了很多问题,其中包括广泛的抵押贷款拖欠,消极的负资产家庭,已经中止了的建筑项目。金融危机为国内外投资者带来了严峻的挑战,也带来了机遇。 挑战 虽然中国的房地产市场与美国以及其他发达国家的房地产市场相比，仍然处于相对早期发展的阶段,但在世界上，中国的房地产业在1998年至2007年是最活跃的。活跃期间, 房地产投资的平均年增长率为22.1%,是平均增长率为9.4%的GDP的两倍多。尤其在2000年至2007年间年均增长率超过了20%,而在2003年至2007每年超过了30%。然而,从2007年下半年开始,中国的房地产市场翻了个大筋斗，给房地产的投资者们带来了巨大损失。 最近在房地产市场和全球金融危机的周期性变化下，证明了房地产投资的固有风险。但是,非常像汉语词汇中“危机”的意思，是由“危险”和“机会”这两个词语共同组成的，这说明挑战和机遇在房地产市场方面是相辅相成的。 机遇 基于特殊的政治决策系统的特点,中国政府已迅速制定并实施众多的政策、制度去解决急速下降的房地产市场。亚洲地区世界银行的首席经济学家尼赫鲁说:“中国是非常特殊的,因为它有这个能调动国家一切机构的令人难以置信的能力。”由于2007年下半年开始的经济低迷,造成了许多经济问题和社会问题，因此中央和地方政府就为许多良好的房地产市场参与者制定了相关的房地产市场的政策和法规，并在2008年开始生效。 这些相关的政策和法规，包括了减少抵押贷款数额;降低抵押的贷款利率; 要求 对教师党员的评价套管和固井爆破片与爆破装置仓库管理基本要求三甲医院都需要复审吗 延长付款时间等条件;放松或者消除封顶住房贷款公积金转化的商业房贷;政府支持、减少或消除住房契税;提供直接补贴等条例;放宽二手房买卖的条例和消除房地产印花税等。 在2009年的第一季度即将结束的尾声,我国房地产市场已经开始显示出复苏的迹象。尽管房价仍然处在较低水平,但根据程姓记者在2009年度的报道,以许多城市的住房交易为例,从中看出了比去年同期是有所增长的，其中包括北京的房地产价格增长了6.28 %，上海的房地产价格增长了27.89 %，天津的房地产价格增长了15.77%，南京的房地产价格增长了9.17%。这个恢复是由于上述促进性政策法规的作用下实现的,而且更重要的是,这个恢复也是由于最近通货膨胀的货币供给。根据,中国人民银行公布的统计数据,在2009年的2月底，各种类型的金融机构贷款余额是人民币33.06万亿元,比一年前的金融机构贷款额增加了24.17%。值得一提的是,金融机构贷款额单单在二月份就增长了1.07万亿元的人民币，比去年二月份整整增长了44.1%，实在是一个很高的增长额度。此外,其中4万亿元的人民币即585亿美元，这笔用来刺激经济发展的项目资金，目的在于提高固有资产，和进一步发展将来的房地产投资市场，使房地产市场得到更好的复苏。这就是截至二月份底,中国的房地产相关证券交易在中国经济类别中排行第九的主要原因。 上海和深圳的房地产股票交易 记录 混凝土 养护记录下载土方回填监理旁站记录免费下载集备记录下载集备记录下载集备记录下载 显示着中国房地产市场的显著进步,中国的房地产股票指数增加了超过40%。 世界金融危机对于中国房地产市场而言会造成多大的影响和会持续多长的时间，这一点是不确定的，但其市场似乎已经崩溃。一些经济学家预测,中国将成为第一个逃脱全球经济下滑冲击的国家。Batson(2009)争辩说,中国经济将由 于4万亿的经济刺激项目资金而有一个转折点，其中不断上升的原油和铁矿石进口量就是证据,每月记录的销售数据,提高了汽车销售经理们的自信心,上海综合股票指数也增长了34.24%,房地产销售额也日益增长。Anderlini(2009)也在房地产资本开支和成交量这方面做出了报道，自从2008年7月以来，在2009年的3月房地产价格第一次有了轻微上涨。 我们从中可以观察到,中国的房地产市场可能仍然有相当大的波动和风险，但是从长远来看,中国的房地产市场仍然有望为国内外投资者提供丰厚的回报和有益的机会。 房地产业和整体经济 中国的经济一直在增长，是在过去十年中增长最快的国家之一。导致这种增长是有很多原因的，房地产开发就是其中之一。但不同于很多西方发达国家的经济，发达国家的消费比重占整体GDP的60%到80%，但中国的消费比重只占中国经济的40%左右。 因此，投资，特别是在房地产和基础设施领域有所投资的人对中国的经济发展发挥了至关重要的作用。中国的国内生产总值按年率计算是增长了，而房地产资本，或者房地10.9% 产通过投资所创造的价值，以甚至更快的速率扩大着。房地产资本占的比重，13.0%GDP从年的增长到了年的。这些比重与消费在经济中的比重大约达到相199736.7%200542.6% 同水平，这 表 关于同志近三年现实表现材料材料类招标技术评分表图表与交易pdf视力表打印pdf用图表说话 pdf 明消费和房地产投资大致对整体经济有相同的重要性。事实上，从国内生产总值稳步增长的角度来看，房地产投资在此期间是有所增长的，但相对的消费水平却有所下降。 第二，中国城市地区的经济是占主导地位的，城市固定资产投资也是占房地产资金的大多数，以每年的速度增长。在此同时，这些投资之中超过的资金是投入到建筑和18.6%60% 安装工程中的，以每年这个更快的速度在扩大。因此，可以这样说，建筑和安装工程，18.8% 推动了城市固定资产投资的增长。这些投资带动了整个房地产行业，房地产行业反过来又带动了整体经济的增长。 第三，新市区建设(道路，桥梁等基础设施)和住房是建筑安装项目的主要组成部分。新市区的建设是从年至年完成的，包括平方公里，截止到年底占了19972005123072005城市总面积的。新的城市房屋，包括亿平方米，是与市区建设在同一时间内完37.8%103.4 成的，占了总体住房面积的。同时，新建成的累积为公里的公路和公62.9%74470033643里的高速公路，分别占了全部公路的和。这些高比例表明了政府在此期间有努38.6%91.7% 力改善和扩大住房和基础设施。 第四，政府征用的土地主要是农村土地，实际上农村土地是供应房地产的主要来源。从 年至年征用的土地累计加起来有平方公里，占了年新城市面积的19972005109962010 。由于大部分是耕地，所以即使城市化是以如此快速的脚步在发展，但到一定程度，89.4% 城市化还是给农业生产造成了负面影响，给社会制造了一些不良问题。但在另一方面，如同当时的总理朱镕基所言，城市化它为进一步的经济发展创造了必不可少的基础。 道路，公路，高速公路的建设为当地政府利用财政资源提供了一个良好平台，同时地方经济服务也是另一个推动经济增长的动力。中国在世界上拥有最高的储蓄率，高于一般国家的百分之四十。中资银行大多是由政府拥有和经营的，所以吸引了大量资金。 不成熟的和不稳定的资本主义市场还没有提供这些建设的资本。有鉴于此，政府采取了政策，即借打造，并使用收费偿还的公路建设。到年为止，高速公“”200696%路(约公里)，的一级公路(约公里)和的二级公路(约公3950070%2690046%113000里)已完全可以使用。 年至年，政府提供给各省的高速公路管理部门只有亿元的净投资，而利200420062.11用的总资本资金额度，道路建设项目达到亿元，其中资本充足的银行向政府净投资了60.3 亿美元。这意味着政府净支出了数亿元人民币，亿美元的银行投资所创造的成果28.6 28.6 也带来了可观的经济连锁反应。银行，其实，常因争夺地方政府的贷款和利润丰厚的利息收费而为这些项目的实现发挥了良好的作用。更重要的是，大多数这样的政府投资最终都能变得有所回报的，获利了的亿元远远超过了支出的亿元。16.0112.76 结论 在过去的二十年间，中国的房地产已经从政府控制变成商业产品了。房地产市场已经出现了，并且作为中国金融市场发展的重要组成部分。这个市场已迅速纳入世界市场，从它的周期与其他国家的周期相一致这一特点中证明。在房屋价格上涨波动的情况下，像房地产这种一体化的副产品会成为投资者和政府当局在未来的密切合作中需要研究的一个重要的问题。 虽然整体国内生产总值和收入水平已经迅速增长，但是住房成本的快速上升加剧了住房负担能力，而且在较富裕的沿海地区更为严重。房地产开发已成为中国经济增长的主要因素和整体经济运行的重要组成部分。另一方面，如果中国经济在当前的世界经济环境下能保持健康成长，将能够进一步刺激更大、更好的住房内需。 2007年下半年全球金融危机的持续下降已经对中国的房地产市场的参与者构成严重的挑战。但最近有迹象表明房地产市场已经触底，并可能正在走向反弹。从长远来看，我们相信房地产市场为国内和国外的投资者提供了有利的投资机 会。 出处:中国房地产市场的发展，《中国经济》，第卷，第期，年月至43120101 月，第至页27192