What is modeling：什么是建模

What is modeling：什么是建模 What is modeling? The 'Structural Modeling' Approach – and how it is significantly different from any conventional approach First, a quote from John N. Warfield: Modeling is a process that begins with human perception. A sequence of the following nature describes the activity of modeling: 1) Perception 2) Storage in the brain 3) Identifying a context within which to place the perceptions, and within which they can potentially be integrated 4) Generating factors associated with that context and with the perceptions that are the focus of attention at the time 5) Identifying types of relations that appear to be associated with these factors in the chosen context 6) Structuring the factors to show how they are interrelated through specific relationships that are representative of the selected types 7) Interpreting the structures produced 8) Associating the factors with algorithms that permit the relationships discovered to be quantified (if they are possible to quantify) 9) Assigning or computing numerical values to/for the factors 10) Interpreting the model-related information for purposes of design or decision- making (Above paraphrased from “Structural Thinking”, J.N. Warfield: 1995-96 Essays on Complexity) The above sequence describes Structural Modeling, the process underlying Interactive Management (and the One Page Management System - OPMS). Built into the above- outlined Structural Modeling process, when IM or OPMS is used, is an ongoing comparison of model-related information at each stage with the reality on the ground. These comparisons become sharper and more focussed as the models evolve and develop over time. ? 1985 G.S. Chandy What is Modeling? 1/2 The conventional way (which the IM or OPMS process would not allow at all) is to start at Step 8 or at Step 9 of the above-outlined modeling sequence. In fact, most discussions between people not using IM/OPMS start out at Step 8 or Step 9, usually leaving out Steps 1 to 7, which are pre-requisite for clear understanding all round! (It is true that there are, on occasion, some context-clarifying remarks made, but these generally lack adequate focus to ensure truly clear understanding all round). Thus, many discussions between people are, in the conventional way, based on sets of ‘mental models’ that are significantly different from each other because of differing backgrounds of the people holding them. These mental models on which different people are basing their discussions are left entirely unclarified. Because of the differences in context, the very same words spoken by different people could often mean significantly different things. In any case, the context is entirely unclear. This leads to non-understanding, misunderstanding, confusion, and, finally, ineffective or incompetent action. We are interested in ensuring effective action at every level in the organisation – starting with the individual. Because discussions in the Structural Modeling process are always based on a significant clarification of the context of each idea and thought contributed to the discussion by each person, subsequent action is much more likely to be effective. (Step 3 of the sequence of Structural Modeling outlined above). It should be observed that ‘Structural Modeling’ INCLUDES the ‘conventional modeling process’. The conventional ‘numerate models’ (showing numbers, e.g. how much money, how many copies will be sold, and so on - on which most people rely to the near-total exclusion of any structuring activity) will develop, in a natural way, as the structure of the interrelationships of various issues becomes clear. The difference is that the numbers developing through the Structural Modeling approach are based on a detailed consideration of all structural aspects of the issue, and will therefore have far higher reliability than the numbers developed through the conventional approach. ? 1985 G.S. Chandy What is Modeling? 2/2