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首页 中国汽车配件市场调研(毕马威).pdf

中国汽车配件市场调研(毕马威).pdf

中国汽车配件市场调研(毕马威).pdf

上传者: 习雨荷1994 2012-12-05 评分 0 0 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《中国汽车配件市场调研(毕马威)pdf》,可适用于高等教育领域,主题内容包含ChinaautomotiveandcomponentsmarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternat符等。

ChinaautomotiveandcomponentsmarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedChinaAutomotiveandComponentsMarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedPrefaceChina’sautomotivesectorhasbeenonarollercoasterrideFromheadygrowthintohandwringingoversluggishgrowthandpricewarsin,themarkethasbeenanythingbutpredictableTodatehasbeenarelativelypositiveyearfortheindustry,yetviewsonthelongtermdevelopmentofthemarketcoverawiderangeofopinionsTheautosectorinChinaisstilldevelopingandisfarfrombecomingonesingle,seamlessandintegratedmarketprovidingplentyofammunitiontosupportthepositionsofbothmarketoptimistsandpessimistsItisagainstthisbackdropthatwelaunchourthirdannualreviewoftheautomotiveandcomponentsmarketinChinaForthisreport,wehavechosentofocusonthreetopicsthatarecriticaltothefuturedevelopmentofthesectorinChina,andwhichwefeelmaypresentopportunitiesforexistingmarketparticipantsaswellthosewhohaveyettoenterthemarket:PassengercarexportsComponentandaftermarketsectorCarrelatedservicesInconductingthestudywedrewonanumberofindustrysourcesandliterature,aswellasdiscussionswithindustryparticipantsinChinainAugustandSeptembertocaptureapractical“bottomup”viewofmarketdevelopmentsKeyfindingsarisingfromouranalysisinclude:OverallapositiveoutlookforChina’slongtermgrowth,butachallengingenvironmentforsomeasthefragmentedandcrowdedmarketmaturesandconsolidatesExportsshouldnotbeseenasaninstantcurefortheoverinvestmentthathastakenplaceinChinaexportsarecoming,butsignificanthurdlesmustbeovercomeOEMsarefocusingincreasinglyonimprovinglocalcomponentsourcingandtheaftermarket,andcomponentexportsmayriseasaresultDemandforautomotiverelatedservicesissettogrowasChinaembracesthecarcultureWehopethatthisreportprovidesinsightsandclarityinamarketthatischangingrapidlyPaulBroughHeadofFinancialAdvisoryServicesKPMGinChinaandHongKongSARNovemberChinaAutomotiveandComponentsMarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedTheinformationinthisreportisofageneralnatureandisnotintendedtoaddressthecircumstancesofanyparticularindividualorentityAlthoughweendeavourtoprovideaccurateandtimelyinformation,therecanbenoguaranteethatsuchinformationisaccurateasofthedateitisreceivedorthatitwillcontinuetobeaccurateinthefutureNooneshouldactonsuchinformationwithoutappropriateprofessionaladviceafterathoroughexaminationoftheparticularsituationKPMGdoesnotacceptresponsibilitytoanypartythatreliesoninformationorviewsexpressedinthisreportcompaniesshouldseekprofessionaladviceandconductathoroughassessmentoftheparticularsituationpriortomakinganybusinessdecisionOurreportisbasedoninformationavailabletousattheendofSeptemberOurinformationandanalysisisbasedonresearchconductedfromJulytoSeptemberChinaAutomotiveandComponentsMarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedContentsPageMarketdevelopmentPassengercarexportsegmentAutopartsandaftermarketsegmentCarrelatedservicesChinaAutomotiveandComponentsMarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedMarketdevelopmentChina,stillagrowthmarketInrecentyears,China’sautomotiveindustryhasexperiencedtremendousgrowthtobecomeoneoftheleadingautomotivemarketsgloballywithsalesandproductionofpassengercarsreachingmillioninChinaisnowthefifthlargestmarketintermsofsales,andisexpectedtoovertakeJapanbytotakethenumbertwopositionComparedtoothermajorautomotivemarkets,however,ChinastillhasampleroomforgrowthChina’scarpenetrationisoneofthelowestintheworld,fuellingoptimismfromlocalandforeigninvestorsalikeovertheattractivenessofthesectorinthelongrunGrowthvspenetrationofglobalpassengercarmarkets()Note:Sizedepictssalesunitsofmarket(millions)Source:Euromonitorreports,EIUViewswireKPMGanalysisAfterdoublingsalesin,passengercarsalesslowedin,dueinparttogovernmentmeasurestocoolthemarketThoughgrowthinChinahassloweddown,itisstillrelativelyrobustatanestimatedpercentperyearinthelongterm,comparedtomarginalgrowthinothermaturemarketsGrowthwillcontinuetobedrivenbytherobustsalesofthesmallcarsegmentsEIUViewswire,“Worldautomotiveoutlook:Pressuresremain”MarchOICAWebsiteJapan:,Penetration(passengercarsper,population)Percentagegrowth()China:,Germany:,UK:,Canada:US:,ChinaAutomotiveandComponentsMarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedPassengercarsalesbysegment,Sources:ChinaCarPassengerAssociationJPMorganestimatesCSFB“ChinaAutoSectorBuyaheadofrecovery”MayKPMGanalysisDosalesequatetoprofitsDespitetherelativelyhighgrowthrates,marginsforautomotivemanufacturershavecomeunderpressureduetofallingpricesandincreasesinrawmaterialcosts,inparticularsteel,withmanufacturers’profitsdecreasingbyapproximatelypercentinNevertheless,theabilitytopassonsomeofthepricingpressurestoautopartsmanufacturersshouldhelpmanyautomotivemanufacturerstocontinuetoenjoyaboveaveragemarginsinChinaInaddition,theChineseautomotivemarketisnonhomogeneouswithmanysmallerandseparate”markets”Forexample,BuicksandVWsdominatetheir“hometurf”inShanghai,yetoneseesaverydifferentmarketmixinGuangzhouorBeijingThisispartlyduetodifferencesincustomerpreferencesacrossthecountrybutmostly,regionalprotectionismAutomotivemanufacturersareabletoenjoymore“advantages”,inregionsorcitieswheretheirplantsarelocatedTheexistenceofseparatemarketsmeanmanufacturerscanstillexpectaboveaveragemarginsasChinaisstillnotafullycompetitiveplayingfieldMuchofthecompetitioninChina’sautomotivemarkethasbeendomestic,asimportedcarsstillonlyaccountforasmallproportionofsalesdespiteincreasingbyapproximatelypercentinImportedcarsarelikelytoposeevenlessofathreattothemarketinthenearterm,asmoreandmorevehiclesarelocallymanufactured,pricesinChinafallandthegovernmentcreatesadditionalhurdlesforimportssuchasnewrulesprohibitingbondedzonesstoringvehiclestargetedatthedomesticmarketChinaAssociationofAutomobileManufacturersKPMGanalysisForecastEconomyMediumHighLuxuryChinaAutomotiveandComponentsMarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedTheeffectsofoverinvestmentThebasicstrategyofmostOEMsseemstohavebeenstraightforward:growthetoplineandincreasesalestoestablishasignificantpositioninthemarketHowever,asforeshadowedbyourreport,withalargenumberofnewcarplantscomingonline,theinevitableresulthasbeenlowerpricesInanefforttogainmarketshare,automotivemanufacturershavebeencuttingpricesaggressivelyoverthepasttwoyearsMonthlycarpricesdecreasedfromanindexofinJanuarytoapproximatelyinAprilforexample,thepriceofaBMWSeriessedandecreasedbymorethanpercentinTocopewiththeaboveissue,automotivemanufacturersrecentlyformedatacitagreementtostabiliseoutputTherefore,carpricesarestillfallingbutatamuchsteadierratemanyindustryexpertsexpectpricecompetitiontobemore“rational”inthefutureFragmentationorconsolidationAttheendoftherewereapproximatelyautomotivemanufacturersinChina,withthetopfiveproducerscontrollingapproximatelypercentofthemarketThetopproducers’marketsharehasweakenedcomparedtofiveyearsagothegovernmentintendstostrengthentheindustrybyencouragingfurtherindustryconsolidation,thoughadetailedplanhasyettobeissuedItshouldbenotedthatforeignvehicleassemblersarestillrequiredtooperateviaajointventure,withapercentceilingontheirinterestComponentmanufacturers,ontheotherhand,arenotsubjecttothisrestrictionChina’sautomotivemanufacturerscanbecategorisedintothreegroups:Group:majorautomotiveJVsThesewillbeabletodevelopanationalpresenceandmaintainatechnicalandscaleadvantageGroup:thesearenicheproducersthatfocusonthesmallcarsegment,whichareexpectedtoenjoymuchhighergrowthwhenfullydeveloped,theseproducerswouldhavealeancoststructureaswellasrelativelyrobustbrandsGroup:thelastgroupcomprisesalargenumberofautomotivemanufacturersthatlackeconomiesofscaleandstrongcompetitiveadvantageCompaniesinthisgrouparelikelytobecomevictimtoindustryconsolidationastheywilleitherbecomeinsolventorbeacquiredAutomotiveResourcesAsiaLtd“ChinaAutomotiveReport”JulyandAugustDeutscheBank“ChinaAutosDealersurvey:cautiouslyoptimistic”AprilXinhua’sChinaEconomicInformationService“ProfileofChina’sautomotiveindustry”ChinaAutomotiveandComponentsMarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedTable:SegmentationofOEMsSource:ChinaAutomotivePress“Overcapacityisnotthebiggestworryoftheautomotiveindustry”AugustKPMGanalysisDescriptionMajorJVOEMsthathavepartnershipswithforeignOEMsandenjoylargesalesvolumesNichelocalOEMsthatfocusonproducingeconomycarsanddevelopingtheirownbrandsSmallerlocalOEMsthatlackscaleandcompetitiveadvantageRepresentativecompaniesFAWVW,ShanghaiGMGeely,CheryGroup–the“mainstream”Group–the“challengers”Group–the“remainder”EstimatednumberofcompaniesAroundMorethanManyChinaAutomotiveandComponentsMarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedContentsPageMarketdevelopmentPassengercarexportsegmentAutopartsandaftermarketsegmentCarrelatedservicesChinaAutomotiveandComponentsMarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedStillearlydaysIndevelopedautomotivemarkets,exportscanrepresentarelativelylargeproportionoftotalsalesInChina,however,theexportmarketisstillinitsinfancyChineseexportsareonlyafractionofexportsfromsuchcountriesasJapan,SouthKorea,Thailand,andIndiaAlthoughChina’sexportsofvehicleshavebeengrowingsteadilyinrecentyears(byaCAGRofpercentbetweenand),itisstillaverysmallsegmentandonlyaccountsforapproximatelytwopercentofChina’stotalcarproductionSource:OICA,“Productionofpassengercars”UnitedNationsCommodityTradeStatisticsDatabaseKPMGanalysisNevertheless,infaceoffiercecompetitionandoverinvestmentinthedomesticmarket,someautomotivemanufacturershavestartedexploringoverseasmarketsForexample,CheryispartneringwithaUSentrepreneurtointroduce,vehiclesintheUSstartingin,andamillionunitsayearwithinanotherfiveyearsThoughChinahasyettoberecognisedasanattractiveexportproductionbase,someglobalmanufacturershavestartedinvestinginfacilitiesinChinaforexportpurposesforexample,HondaestablishedafacilityinGuangzhouinmidtotargetEuropeanandAsianmarkets,andbeganexportingcarstoGermanyinmidExportsasolutionforoverinvestmentandovercapacityConcernsaboutoverinvestmenthavebeenaroundforsometimeanditappearsthatdomesticdemandmaynotbeabletoabsorbplannedproductioncapacityinthenearfutureItisbelievedbysomethatexportscouldbeapotentialbutpartialsolutiontotheissuePassengercarexportsegment“Vehicles”aredefinedastrucks,busesandpassengercarsExports(‘),,Production(million)CountriesJapanSouthKoreaThailandIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaChinaExportsasofproductionChinaAutomotiveandComponentsMarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedCapacityanddemandforecastofpassengercarsinChinaNote:KPMGestimatesSource:CSFB“ChinaAutoSectorBuyaheadofrecovery”MayThereality,however,isthatitmaytaketimeforexportstomaterialiseChinesemanufacturedcarsfacevariouschallengesinenteringmajoroverseasmarketsCurrently,themajordestinationsofvehicleexportshavepredominantlybeentosmallemergingcountriesintheMiddleEast,AfricaandSoutheastAsia,despitemanufacturers’ambitionstoenterotherdevelopedandlargerexportmarketsChinesepassengercarexportsarenotexpectedtoposeanysignificantthreattodevelopedcountriesintheneartermManufacturersfaceanumberofconstraintsontheirabilitytoexport,butaswesetoutbelowthesechallengesarequitedifferentforforeignOEMsthanforlocalmanufacturersTopexportdestinationsforChinesepassengercars(JanJuly)Source:AutomotiveResourcesAsia“ChinaAutomotiveReport”AugustUnits(million)DemandForecastCapacity(plannedandactual),SyriaEgyptBelgiumAlgeriaSaudiArabiaUnits,,ChinaAutomotiveandComponentsMarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedForeignOEMsarecautiousaboutexportingChinesecarstodevelopedmarkets,mainlyforstrategicreasons:ChinesecarsmaycannibalisetheirproductionbasesinoverseasmarketsLabourunions(andpossiblyconsumers)inoverseasmarketsmayopposealargeinfluxofChineseimportsCurrentlyitispotentiallymoreexpensivetoassemblecarsinChinaassomehighqualitypartsarenotavailableinthelocalmarketandneedtobeimportedChineseOEMsalsofaceadifferentsetofchallengeswhenenteringoverseasmarkets:Chinesecarsmustimprovetechnologyandqualitytomeetinternationalstandards,inparticularsafetyandemissionstandardsChineseOEMsneedtoconvinceinternationalcustomersthatChinesecarsarenotanother“Yugo”anddevelopastrongoverseassalesandservicenetworkIntellectualpropertyrightsremainakeyissue,especiallyforGroupOEMmanufacturersLackofFreeTradeAgreementswithoverseascountriesmakeitdifficultforChinesecarstocompeteeffectivelyChallenge:TechnologyandqualityAlthoughChinesemanufacturershaveimprovedtheirdesignsandmanufacturingprocesses,theyhaveyettoacquirestrongtechnologyandqualitycontrolcapabilities,inparticularsafetyandemissionstandards,whicharekeytoenteringdevelopedmarketsForinstance,TheJiangLingLandwinddisplayedattheFrankfurtMotorShowinSeptemberscoredzeroinsafetytestsconductedbyAllgemeinerDeutscherAutomobilClubeV(ADAC),aGermanautomobileclubADAC,whichcarriesouttestsforEuroNewCarAssessmentProgramme(NCAP),calculatedthatadriverwouldbeunlikelytosurviveaheadoncollisionatmphhowever,thecarperformedwellinalatertestconductedbyGermancertifyinglaboratoryTUV,afteranumberofengineeringimprovementsweremadeClearly,tobecomemajorchallengersintheglobalarena,Chinesemanufacturersstillneedtoinvestsignificantlyinsafetyandemissiontechnologies“TheChineseareprobablyfiveorsixyearsawayfrombeingabletosellacompetentlowendcar”commentedaninvestmentanalystTheSundayTimes,ChineseXgetszeroinsafetytest,SeptemberTheSundayTimes,Chinesealtercarsaftercrashtest,OctoberChinaAutomotiveandComponentsMarketKPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperativeAllrightsreservedChallenge:Marketingandsalesnetwork“MadeinChina”hasbeenassociatedinthemindsofmanywiththeperceptionof“competitivelypriced”but“lowquality”,andthisalsoappliestopassengercarsfromChinaInadditiontoenhancingthequalityofcars,ChinesemanufacturersalsoneedtoinvestsignificantlyinmarketingtobuilduptheirimageandbrandinkeyoverseasmarketsThisstrategyhasbeensuccessfullyimplementedbefore,byJapanesemanufacturersinthe’sand’s,andmorerecentlybyKoreanmanufacturersChinesemanufacturersmayalsoadopta“liftandshift”approach,wheretheybuyanoverseasbrand(egNanjingAuto’sacquisitionoftheRoverbrand)andthenleveragethissalesnetworkandplatformtoexportChinesemadecars“Inadditiontotariffsandotherpolicyrestrictionsinoverseasmarkets,themostcriticalchallengefordomesticOEMsistogaintrustandrecognitionfromforeignconsumers”marketingmanagerofamajorJVautomanufacturerBesides,developingastrongoverseasdistributionandsupportnetworkwillalsoprovetobecriticalforChinesemanufacturersChallenge:IntellectualPropertyRights(IPR)InfringementofIPRhasincreasinglycometotheattentionoftheglobalautomotivemarket,notonlyintrademarkandautopartareas,butalsoincardesignandmanufacturingtechnologyAlready,therearemanyIPRcasesinChina’sautomotiveindustryofconcerntotheinternationalmarket,inparticularthoserelatedtoGroupmanufacturersForexample,GMsuedCheryforallegedlycopyingelementsoftheGMdesignedChevroletSparkinitsQQmodelChinesemanufacturersmaythereforefinditdifficulttoexporttheircarstodevelopedmarketsChallenge:FreeTradeAgreements(FTA)CountrieswithwhichChinesehassignedFreeTradeAgreementsrepresentrelativelyaccessiblemarketsforChinesemanufacturers,byallowingthemtoexportChinesemadevehicleswithouttariffandquotasAwareoftheimportanceofFTAs,Chinahasparticipatedactivelyinestablishingtraderelations,especiallywithAsiancountriesForexample,theChinaASEANFTAisexpectedtobringlongtermbenefitstotheChinaautomotiveindustrybyHowever,Chinastillneedstowork

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