2012年9月美联储议息会议点评—“开放

13 91 5 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ � Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼�ᅣ㾖㒘� 䇌ᓎ㢇� ⬉䆱˖010-60838756 䚂ӊ˖zhujf@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120003 ᄭ〇ᄬ� ⬉䆱˖010-60838015 䚂ӊ˖sunwc@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120052 㨷߽� ⬉䆱˖010-60838405 䚂ӊ˖dongli@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010511080001 ਈ⥝ゟ� ⬉䆱˖010-60838230 䚂ӊ˖wuyl@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010511080003 ߬䳪ᵫ�� ⬉䆱˖010-60838023 䚂ӊ˖liull@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010511080002 㘨㋏Ҏ˖䛁ᒧ� ⬉䆱˖010-60836734� 䚂ӊ˖guokuo@citics.com� џ乍˖� 㕢೑ϰ䚼ᯊ䯈 2012ᑈ 9᳜ 13᮹ 㕢ˈ㘨ټথᏗᴀᑈᑺ㄀݁⃵䆂ᙃӮ䆂ໄᯢ 㘨ˈ䙺݀ᓔᏖഎྨਬӮ˄ FOMC˅ ৠᛣҹ↣᳜ 400 ғ㕢ܗⱘ乱ᑺ䌁ф乱໪ⱘᴎᵘᢉᢐᬃᣕ䆕ࠌ˄MBS˅ˈ ৠᯊ㒻㓁ᅠ៤ॳᅮѢҞᑈᑈᑩ㒧ᴳⱘ ᡁ䕀᪡԰DŽ㒻㓁އᅮ㓈ᣕ㘨䙺෎䞥߽⥛ⱘⳂᷛ㣗ೈ೼ 0ࠄ 0.25%ϡবˈᑊ乘䅵㘨䙺෎䞥䍙Ԣ߽⥛∈ᑇৃ㛑㟇 ᇥ㓈ᣕࠄ 2015 ᑈЁᳳDŽ䱣ৢˈ㕢㘨ټথᏗ㒣⌢๲䭓乘⌟ˈᇚ 2012 ᑈ㒣⌢๲䭓乘ᳳЁ䯈䍟࢓ϟ䇗㟇 1.7%ࠄ 2.0%DŽ 䆘䆎˖� � ᥼ߎ QE3೼乘ᳳПЁ 㕢㘨ټއᅮ↣᳜ҹ 400ғ㕢ܗⱘ乱ᑺ䌁ф乱໪ⱘᴎᵘMBSˈৠᯊ㒻㓁ᅠ៤Ҟᑈ 6᳜ FOMC䆂ᙃӮ䆂Ϟ ᅷᏗⱘǃॳᅮѢҞᑈᑈᑩ㒧ᴳⱘ OT᪡԰ˈҹᓊ䭓㘨ټᣕ᳝䆕ࠌⱘᑇഛࠄᳳᯊ䯈ˈᑊᇚҢᴎᵘ؎ࠌ੠ᴎᵘᣝ ᧁ䆕ࠌЁ㦋ᕫⱘᴀ䞥䖬ℒ⫼Ѣݡᡩ䌘˗ৠᯊˈއᅮ㓈ᣕ㘨䙺෎䞥߽⥛ⱘⳂᷛ㣗ೈ೼ 0ࠄ 0.25%ϡবˈᑊ乘䅵 㘨䙺෎䞥䍙Ԣ߽⥛∈ᑇৃ㛑㟇ᇥ㓈ᣕࠄ 2015ᑈЁᳳDŽҹϞއㄪা᳝ Jeffrey M. Lackerϔৡ៤ਬᡩডᇍ⼼ 㸼ˈ ᯢ FOMC ៤ਬᇍℸ⃵އㄪ㸠ࡼⱘ㾖⚍䴲ᐌϔ㟈DŽᴀ⃵䆂ᙃӮ䆂ⱘϔ㋏߫㸠ࡼއㄪഛ೼ℸࠡᏖഎⱘϔ㟈乘ᳳ ПЁˈг෎ᴀヺড়៥Ӏℸࠡ㕢㘨ټᇚ೼ 9 ᳜ᓊ䭓߽⥛ᣛᇐǃᑊ೼ᑈݙ᥼ߎ QE3 ⱘ෎ᴀ߸ᮁ˄lj೑䰙ᅣ㾖਼ ᡹üü⮆ᔅ᭄᥂៪ᇚ֗Փ㕢㘨ټߎ᠟NJˈ2012ᑈ 9᳜ 10᮹˅DŽ � 㕢㘨ټᇍ 2012ᑈ㒣⌢๲䭓乘⌟䍟Ѣᚆ㾖 㕢㘨ټᇍ 2012ᑈ㒣⌢๲䭓乘ᳳ䍟Ѣᚆ㾖ˈԚ䇗催᳾ᴹϸᑈ㒣⌢๲䭓乘⌟DŽ㘨ټᇚ 2012ᑈ㒣⌢๲䭓乘ᳳ ⱘЁ䯈䍟࢓Ң 6᳜ 1.9%ࠄ 2.4%ϟ䇗㟇 1.7%ࠄ 2.0%ˈ༅Ϯ⥛乘ᳳ㓈ᣕ 6᳜ⱘ 8.0%ࠄ 8.2%ϡবˈ䗮㚔乘ᳳҢ 6᳜ⱘ 1.2%ࠄ 1.7%Ϟ䇗㟇 1.7%ࠄ 1.8% ᑊ˗ᇚ 2013ᑈ㒣⌢๲䭓乘ᳳҢ 6᳜ⱘ 2.2%ࠄ 2.8Ϟ䇗㟇 2.5%ࠄ 3.0%ˈ ᇚ 2014ᑈ㒣⌢๲䭓乘ᳳҢ 6᳜ⱘ 3.0%ࠄ 3.5%Ϟ䇗㟇 3.0%ࠄ 3.8%DŽ � QE3݋ԧᔶᓣ Ā˖ᓔᬒᓣā䌁؎ˈᑊᣕ㓁ࠄህϮࠡ᱃໻ᐙᬍ୘ ℸ⃵ QE3ⱘᔶᓣሲѢĀᓔᬒᓣāˈे≵᳝ᯢ⹂ᣛߎ䌁ф؎ࠌⱘᘏ㾘῵੠݋ԧ㒧ᴳ᮹ᳳDŽࠄᑈᑩࠡ QˈE3 Ϣℸࠡⱘ OT᪡԰ˈড়䅵↣᳜ᇚՓ㘨ټ๲ࡴᣕ᳝໻㑺 850ғ㕢ܗⱘ䭓ᳳ䆕ࠌDŽᴹ㞾㒑㑺㘨ټⱘ݀ਞᰒ⼎ˈℸ ⃵ QE3ᇚҢ㕢ϰᯊ䯈 9᳜ 14᮹ᓔྟᅲᮑ 乘ˈ䅵 9᳜ᇚ䌁؎ 230ғ㕢ܗ ᳾˗ᴹ↣᳜ QE3ⱘ䌁؎᭄乱ᇚ೼ࠡϔ Ͼ᳜ⱘ᳜ᑩ᳔ৢϔϾᎹ԰᮹݀Ꮧˈ᳾ᴹ↣᳜ OTⱘ䌁؎᭄乱ᇚ೼ࠡϔϾ᳜ⱘ㄀ܿϾᎹ԰᮹݀ᏗDŽҢ䌁фᇍ䈵 ᴹⳟˈQE3Ϣ OT䌁фⱘ؎ࠌᇚ䲚ЁѢ᳔ᮄথ㸠ⱘᴎᵘMBSDŽ ĀᓔᬒᓣāQE3Ⳉ䴶㕢೑༅Ϯ 2012ᑈ 9᳜ 14᮹ ⷨお᡹ਞgᅣ㾖ⷨおgџӊ⚍䆘 2012ᑈ 9᳜㕢㘨ټ䆂ᙃӮ䆂⚍䆘 2012ᑈ 9᳜㕢㘨ټ䆂ᙃӮ䆂⚍䆘 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2012ᑈ 9᳜ 14᮹ 1 QE3ⳈⳈ᥹Ϣࢇࡼ࡯Ꮦഎ⢊މᣖ䩽Ā৆᮴ࠡ՟āDŽQE3ᇚ⶯ⳒⳈᣛࢇࡼ࡯Ꮦഎüü䌘ѻ䌁фӮϔⳈᣕ㓁ˈ ⳈࠄህϮࠡ᱃໻ᐙᑺᬍ୘ˈ≵᳝ᯢ⹂ⱘذℶ QE3ⱘህϮⳂᷛˈ䖭гህᛣੇⴔ᳾ᴹ FOMC↣⃵䆂ᙃӮ䆂䛑Ӯ ᇍ༅Ϯ⢊މ䖯㸠䆘ԄDŽᇚ QEϢࢇࡼ࡯Ꮦഎ⢊މⳈ᥹ᣖ䩽ˈ䖭ᰃҹᕔӏԩ༂㸠ǃӏԩϔ⃵ᅮ䞣ᆑᵒᬓㄪ䛑Ң ᳾䞛⫼䖛ⱘDŽᑊϨˈབᵰࢇࡼ࡯Ꮦഎ᳾᳝ᅲ䋼ᗻᬍ୘ˈ㘨ټ䖬ᇚ೼ӋḐ〇ᅮⱘࠡᦤϟ䖯ϔℹ䞛প݊Ҫᬓㄪ᥾ ᮑDŽ � QE3ᬓㄪᬜᵰࠡⶏ˖ᇍ㒣⌢ࠎ▔԰⫼ᇚᔅѢࠡϸ䕂 QEˈ߽Ѣ༹Ꮘ偀䖲ӏ QE3ᇍ㕢೑㒣⌢ⱘᕅડᇚЏ㽕䗮䖛߽⥛Ϣ∛⥛⏴䘧 Ԛˈᘏԧ԰⫼ᇚᔅѢࠡϸ䕂 QEDŽℷབ៥ӀПࠡ೼lj೑ 䰙ᅣ㾖਼᡹üü⮆ᔅ᭄᥂៪ᇚ֗Փ㕢㘨ټߎ᠟NJ˄2012ᑈ 9᳜ 10᮹˅ЁᣛߎⱘˈϢࠡϸ䕂 QEᳳ䯈ϡৠⱘ ᰃˈ⬅Ѣᷛ᱂ 500ᣛ᭄ⳂࠡᏆ㒣⍼㟇ॅᴎПৢⱘग़৆催⚍ˈ㗠Ⳃࠡ᠓ഄѻᏖഎ߮߮ᓔྟӕ〇໡㢣ˈ៥Ӏ乘䅵 ℸ䕂 QE3 䗮䖛᥼छ㙵Ꮦঞ݊䋶ᆠᬜᑨᇍᅲԧ㒣⌢ⱘ֗䖯԰⫼ᇚ䕗Ў᳝䰤ˈ᳈Ў䞡㽕ⱘᇚᰃ䗮䖛߽⥛Ϣ∛⥛ ⏴䘧ѻ⫳԰⫼DŽ៥Ӏ䅸ЎˈⳂࠡ䭓ᳳ೑؎߽⥛Ϣ㕢ܗ∛⥛ҡ✊݋᳝᳝䰤ⱘϟ䰡ぎ䯈ˈԚϸϾ⏴䘧ⱘ԰⫼䛑ᇚ ᳈ᔅѢࠡϸ䕂 QEˈᑊϨϡ㛑ᅠܼᢉ⍜ᑈᑩᇚ㽕ࠄᴹⱘĀ䋶ᬓ ዪāކߏDŽ QE3ⱘ᥼ߎᇚՓᕫ༹Ꮘ偀䖲ӏⱘὖ⥛ϞछDŽሑㅵԃफܟ೼ℸৢⱘᮄ䯏থᏗӮϞᔎ䇗 Āˈ㕢㘨ټࡾ࡯ֱᣕ ⣀ゟˈ㘨ټއㄪᅠܼᰃ෎Ѣ㒣⌢ˈϡফⳂࠡᬓ⊏⦃๗੠䗝ВⱘᕅડāˈԚϡ㕂ৃ৺ⱘ⦄ᅲᚙމᰃˈϔᮍ䴶ˈ 䱣ⴔ໻䗝݇䬂ᯊࠏⱘࠄᴹˈҹঞಯᄷᑺĀ䋶ᬓ ዪāⱘ䘐䖥ˈ䋶ᬓᎹ݋᱖ᯊĀᤝ㼳㾕㙬ā˗঺ϔᮍ䴶ˈⳌ↨ Ѣ䖛এѨሞ䖲ӏᬓᑰˈ༹ Ꮘ偀ᬓᑰ೼䗝Вᔧᑈⱘ㒣⌢๲䭓ᚙމ᳔Ў㊳㊩ ༅ˈϮ⥛ᣕ㓁催ԡⱘᯊ䯈᳈ᰃ߯ϟĀ໻ 㧻ᴵāҹᴹП᳔ˈ಴ℸˈⳂࠡⱘ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪᇚϡᕫϡ᳈໮ⱘ㗗㰥ࠄᇍᅲԧ㒣⌢Ϣ໻䗝㒧ᵰⱘᕅડDŽℸ⃵Āᓔᬒ ᓣāQE3೼໻䗝Ј䖥ⱘ݇䬂ᯊ⚍᥼ߎˈᑊⳈ᥹ᇚ䌁ф؎ࠌϢࢇࡼ࡯Ꮦഎ⢊މᣖ䩽ˈ᳾ᴹ↣⃵䆂ᙃӮ䆂ᅮᳳ䆘 Ԅࢇࡼ࡯Ꮦഎ⢊މҹއᅮᰃ৺㒻㓁䌁ф؎ࠌˈᇚᰒ㨫᳝߽Ѣ༹Ꮘ偀೼䗝ВЁ䖲ӏDŽ ೒ 1˖㕢೑䖥ᳳ䕗Ԣⱘ䗮㚔य़࡯Ў QE3ᦤկぎ䯈 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 20 10 -0 1 20 10 -0 4 20 10 -0 7 20 10 -1 0 20 11 -0 1 20 11 -0 4 20 11 -0 7 20 11 -1 0 20 12 -0 1 20 12 -0 4 20 12 -0 7 CPI:ᔧ᳜ৠ↨ ḌᖗCPI:ᔧ᳜ৠ↨ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEIC; Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 2˖㕢೑ 8᳜ህϮ᭄᥂䖰ԢѢ乘ᳳ᥼ࡼ QE3ⱘ᥼ߎ 96 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 08 01 08 07 09 01 09 07 10 01 10 07 11 01 11 07 12 01 12 07 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 ᮄ๲䴲ݰህϮҎ᭄˄ে䕈ˈगҎ˅ ༅Ϯ⥛ QE1 QE2 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEIC; Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 2012ᑈ 9᳜㕢㘨ټ䆂ᙃӮ䆂⚍䆘 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2012ᑈ 9᳜ 14᮹ 2 ೒ 3˖OT᪡԰㌃䅵䌁фϢߎଂ೑؎᭄䞣˄៾㟇 8᳜ 31᮹ˈ ⱒϛ㕢ܗ˅ 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 3.2 5ᑈ ᳳ ҹ ϟ 3.2 5ࠄ 6ᑈ ᳳ 6ࠄ 8ᑈ ᳳ 8ࠄ 10 ᑈ ᳳ 10 ࠄ 2 0ᑈ ᳳ 20 ࠄ 3 0ᑈ ᳳ 䌁ф ߎଂ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖NY Fed; Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 4˖ᬃᣕࠄ 2015ᑈᑩПࠡࡴᙃⱘ㕢㘨ټᅬਬҎ᭄໻ᐙ ๲ࡴ˄Ҏ˅ 3 3 7 6 1 3 2 12 1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 6᳜䆂ᙃ 9᳜䆂ᙃ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Federal Reserve Board; Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 5˖䭓ᳳ೑؎߽⥛ҡ᳝䖯ϔℹϟ⒥ぎ䯈 ˄%˅ 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 20 08 -0 1 20 08 -0 4 20 08 -0 7 20 08 -1 0 20 09 -0 1 20 09 -0 4 20 09 -0 7 20 09 -1 0 20 10 -0 1 20 10 -0 4 20 10 -0 7 20 10 -1 0 20 11 -0 1 20 11 -0 4 20 11 -0 7 20 11 -1 0 20 12 -0 1 20 12 -0 4 20 12 -0 7 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 ೑؎ᬊⲞ⥛:10ᑈ ೑؎ᬊⲞ⥛:30ᑈ ೑؎ᬊⲞ⥛:3Ͼ᳜(ে) ೑؎ᬊⲞ⥛:1ᑈ(ে) QE1 QE2 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEIC; Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 㸼 1˖㕢㘨ټᣕ᳝䌘ѻߚᏗঞ݊ᳳ䰤㒧ᵘ ˄៾㟇 9᳜ 5᮹ˈⱒϛ㕢ܗ˅ 15໽ҹݙ 16ࠄ 90໽ 91໽ࠄ 1ᑈ 1ࠄ 5ᑈ 5ࠄ 10ᑈ 10ᑈҹϞ ᘏ䅵 䌋ℒ 322 323 771 1,081 0 - 2,497 㕢೑೑؎ 0 928 4,713 492,051 785,689 365,481 1,648,862 㘨䙺ᴎᵘ؎ 112 7,815 13,570 58,956 4,410 2,347 87,210 MBS 0 0 4 3 286 843,417 843,710 TALF LLC ᣕ᳝ⱘ䌘ѻᬃᣕ 䆕ࠌ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ಲ䌁ण䆂 0 0 - - - - 0 Ё༂䫊㸠⌕ࡼᗻѦᤶ 16,156 7,287 0 0 0 0 23,442 䗚ಲ䌁ण䆂 89,848 0 - - - - 89,848 ᅮᳳᄬℒ 0 0 0 - - - 0 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Federal Reserve Board; Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ߚߚᵤᏜໄᯢ Analyst Certification Џ㽕䋳䋷᪄ݭᴀⷨお᡹ਞܼ䚼៪䚼ߚݙᆍⱘⷨおߚᵤᏜ೼ℸໄᯢ˖˄ i˅ᴀⷨお᡹ਞ᠔㸼䗄ⱘӏԩ㾖⚍ഛ㊒ޚഄড᯴њϞ䗄↣ԡߚᵤ ᏜϾҎᇍᷛⱘ䆕ࠌ੠থ㸠Ҏⱘⳟ⊩˗˄ ii˅䆹ߚᵤᏜ᠔ᕫ᡹䝀ⱘӏԩ㒘៤䚼ߚ᮴䆎ᰃ೼䖛এǃ⦄೼ঞᇚᴹഛϡӮⳈ᥹៪䯈᥹ഄϢⷨお᡹ਞ ᠔㸼䗄ⱘ݋ԧᓎ䆂៪㾖⚍Ⳍ㘨㋏DŽThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. ϔ㠀ᗻໄᯢ ℸ᡹ਞᑊ䴲䩜ᇍ៪ᛣ೒䗕থ㒭៪Ўӏԩህ䗕থǃথᏗǃৃ ᕫࠄ៪Փ⫼ℸ᡹ਞ㗠ՓЁֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌঞ݊䰘ሲᴎᵘ˄ ҹϟ㒳⿄ĀЁ ֵ䆕ࠌā˅ 䖱ডᔧഄⱘ⊩ᕟ៪⊩㾘៪ৃ㟈ՓЁֵ䆕ࠌফࠊѢⳌ݇⊩ᕟ៪⊩㾘ⱘӏԩഄऎǃ೑ᆊ៪݊ᅗㅵ䕪ऎඳⱘ݀⇥៪ሙ⇥DŽ䰸䴲঺᳝ 㾘ᅮˈᴀ᡹ਞЁⱘ᠔᳝ᴤ᭭⠜ᴗഛሲЁֵ䆕ࠌDŽ᳾㒣Ёֵ䆕ࠌџܜк䴶ᥜᴗˈϡᕫҹӏԩᮍᓣׂᬍǃথ䗕៪㗙໡ࠊᴀ᡹ਞঞ݊᠔ࣙ৿ⱘ ᴤ᭭ǃݙᆍDŽ᠔᳝Ѣℸ᡹ਞЁՓ⫼ⱘଚᷛǃ᳡ࡵᷛ䆚ঞᷛ䆄ഛЎЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘଚᷛǃ᳡ࡵᷛ䆚ঞᷛ䆄DŽ ᴀ᡹ਞᰃᴎᆚⱘˈা᳝ᬊӊҎᠡ㛑Փ⫼DŽᴀ᡹ਞ᠔䕑ⱘֵᙃǃᴤ᭭៪ߚᵤᎹ݋াᦤկ㒭䯕ϟ԰খ㗗П⫼ˈϡᰃ៪ϡᑨ㹿㾚Ўߎଂǃ 䌁ф៪䅸䌁䆕ࠌ៪݊ᅗ䞥㵡Ꮉ݋ⱘ㽕㑺៪㽕㑺䙔䇋DŽЁֵ䆕ࠌгϡ಴ᬊӊҎᬊࠄᴀ᡹ਞ㗠㾚݊ЎЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘᅶ᠋DŽ ᴀ᡹ਞ᠔䕑䌘᭭ⱘᴹ⑤ঞ㾖⚍ⱘߎ໘ⱚ㹿Ёֵ䆕ࠌ䅸Ўৃ䴴ˈԚЁֵ䆕ࠌϡֱ䆕݊ޚ⹂ᗻ៪ᅠᭈᗻDŽ䰸⊩ᕟ៪㾘߭㾘ᅮᖙ乏ᡓᢙⱘ 䋷ӏ໪ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌϡᇍ಴Փ⫼ℸ᡹ਞⱘᴤ᭭㗠ᓩ㟈ⱘᤳ༅䋳ӏԩ䋷ӏDŽᬊӊҎϡᑨऩ㒃ձ䴴ℸ᡹ਞ㗠পҷϾҎⱘ⣀ゟ߸ᮁDŽᴀ᡹ਞ᠔ᣛ ⱘ䆕ࠌ៪䞥㵡Ꮉ݋ⱘӋḐǃӋؐঞᬊܹৃ䎠ৃछDŽҹᕔⱘ㸼⦄ϡᑨ԰Ў᮹ৢ㸼⦄ⱘᰒ⼎ঞᢙֱDŽᴀ᡹ਞ᠔䕑ⱘ䌘᭭ǃᛣ㾕ঞ᥼⌟ড᯴Ё ֵ䆕ࠌѢ᳔߱থᏗℸ᡹ਞ᮹ᳳᔧ᮹ⱘ߸ᮁˈৃ೼ϡথߎ䗮ⶹⱘᚙᔶϟخߎ᳈ᬍˈѺৃ಴Փ⫼ϡৠ؛䆒੠ᷛޚǃ䞛⫼ϡৠ㾖⚍੠ߚᵤᮍ⊩ 㗠ϢЁֵ䆕ࠌ݊ᅗϮࡵ䚼䮼៪ऩԡ᠔㒭ߎⱘᛣ㾕ϡৠ៪㗙ⳌডDŽᴀ᡹ਞϡᵘ៤⾕Ҏ੼䆶ᓎ䆂ˈг≵᳝㗗㰥ࠄϾ߿ᅶ᠋⡍⅞ⱘᡩ䌘Ⳃᷛǃ 䋶ࡵ⢊މ៪䳔㽕DŽᬊӊҎᑨ㗗㰥ᴀ᡹ਞЁⱘӏԩᛣ㾕៪ᓎ䆂ᰃ৺ヺড়݊⡍ᅮ⢊މDŽ Ёֵ䆕ࠌ߽⫼ֵᙃ䱨⾏๭᥻ࠊݙ䚼ϔϾ៪໮Ͼ乚ඳˈҹঞ䚼䮼䯈Пֵᙃ⌕ࡼDŽ᪄ݭᴀ᡹ਞⱘߚᵤᏜⱘ㭾䝀⬅ⷨお䚼䮼ㅵ⧚ሖ੠݀ৌ 催㑻ㅵ⧚ሖܼᴗއᅮDŽߚᵤᏜⱘ㭾䝀ϡᰃ෎ѢЁֵ䆕ࠌᡩ㸠ᬊܹ㗠ᅮˈԚᰃˈߚᵤᏜⱘ㭾䝀ৃ㛑Ϣᡩ㸠ᭈԧᬊܹ᳝݇ˈ݊Ёࣙᣀᡩ㸠ǃ 䫔ଂϢѸᯧϮࡵDŽ ೼⊩ᕟ䆌ৃⱘᚙމϟ Ёˈֵ䆕ࠌⱘϔԡ៪໮ԡ㨷џǃ催㑻㘠ਬ੠/៪ਬᎹ(ࣙᣀখϢޚ໛៪থ㸠ℸ᡹ਞⱘҎ)ৃ㛑(1)Ϣℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ ӏԩ݀ৌᓎゟ៪ֱᣕ乒䯂ǃᡩ䌘䫊㸠៪䆕ࠌ᳡ࡵ݇㋏ (ˈ2)Ꮖ㒣৥ℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ݀ৌᦤկњ໻䞣ⱘᓎ䆂៪ᡩ䌘᳡ࡵDŽ೼⊩ᕟ䆌ৃⱘᚙމ ϟˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘϔԡ៪໮ԡ㨷џǃ催㑻㘠ਬ੠/៪ਬᎹৃ㛑ᢙӏℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ݀ৌⱘ㨷џDŽ೼⊩ᕟ䆌ৃⱘᚙމϟˈЁֵ䆕ࠌৃ㛑খϢ ៪ᡩ䌘ℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ݀ৌⱘ䞥㵡Ѹᯧˈ৥᳝݇݀ৌᦤկ៪㦋প᳡ࡵˈঞ/៪ᣕ᳝݊䆕ࠌ៪ᳳᴗ៪䖯㸠䆕ࠌ៪ᳳᴗѸᯧDŽ 㢹Ёֵ䆕ࠌҹ໪ⱘ䞥㵡ᴎᵘথ䗕ᴀ᡹ਞˈ߭⬅䆹䞥㵡ᴎᵘ⣀㞾Ўℸথ䗕㸠Ў䋳䋷DŽ䆹ᴎᵘᅶ᠋ᑨ㘨㋏䆹ᴎᵘҹѸᯧᴀ᡹ਞЁᦤঞⱘ 䆕ࠌ៪㽕∖㦋ᙝ᳈䆺㒚ֵᙃDŽᴀ᡹ਞϡᵘ៤Ёֵ䆕ࠌ৥থ䗕ᴀ᡹ਞ䞥㵡ᴎᵘПᅶ᠋ᦤկⱘᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘ㨷џǃ催㑻㘠ਬ੠ਬᎹ ѺϡЎࠡ䗄䞥㵡ᴎᵘПᅶ᠋಴Փ⫼ᴀ᡹ਞ៪᡹ਞ䕑ᯢⱘݙᆍᓩ䍋ⱘⳈ᥹៪䖲ᏺᤳ༅ᡓᢙӏԩ䋷ӏDŽ Ёֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌঞ݊䰘ሲঞ㘨㧹݀ৌ 2012⠜ᴗ᠔᳝DŽֱ⬭ϔߛᴗ߽DŽ ḍ᥂Ё೑䆕ⲥӮḌথⱘ㒣㧹䆕ࠌϮࡵ䆌ৃˈЁֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌⱘ㒣㧹㣗ೈࣙᣀ䆕ࠌᡩ䌘੼䆶ϮࡵDŽ 䆘㑻䇈ᯢ 䆘㑻� 䇈ᯢ� фܹ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙ 20%ҹϞ˗ ๲ᣕ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙҟѢ 5%̚20%П䯈˗ ᣕ᳝ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙҟѢ-10%̚5%П䯈˗ 㙵⼼ᡩ䌘䆘㑻 पߎ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄䎠ᐙ 10%ҹϞ˗ ᔎѢ໻Ꮦ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙ 10%ҹϞ˗ Ёᗻ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙҟѢ-10%̚10%П䯈˗ 1. ᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂ⱘ↨䕗ᷛޚ ᡩ䌘䆘㑻ߚЎ㙵⼼䆘㑻੠㸠Ϯ䆘㑻DŽ ҹ᡹ਞথᏗৢⱘ 6 Ͼ᳜ݙⱘᏖഎ㸼⦄Ў↨䕗ᷛޚˈ᡹ਞথ Ꮧ᮹ৢⱘ 6 Ͼ᳜ݙⱘ݀ৌ㙵Ӌ˄៪㸠Ϯᣛ᭄˅ⱘ⍼䎠ᐙⳌ ᇍৠᳳⱘЁֵᷛ᱂ 300ᣛ᭄ⱘ⍼䎠ᐙЎ෎ޚ˗ 2. ᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂ⱘ䆘㑻ᷛޚ ᡹ਞথᏗ᮹ৢⱘ 6Ͼ᳜ݙⱘ݀ৌ㙵Ӌ˄៪㸠Ϯᣛ᭄˅ⱘ⍼䎠 ᐙⳌᇍৠᳳⱘЁֵᷛ᱂ 300ᣛ᭄ⱘ⍼䎠ᐙ˖ 㸠Ϯᡩ䌘䆘㑻 ᔅѢ໻Ꮦ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄䎠ᐙ 10%ҹϞ � ࣫࣫Ҁ� Ϟ⍋� ⏅ഇ� Ёֵ䆕ࠌ೑䰙᳝䰤݀ৌ� ഄഔ˖ ࣫ҀᏖᳱ䰇ऎ҂偀ḹ䏃 48ো Ёֵ䆕ࠌ໻ॺ˄100125˅ Ϟ⍋⌺ϰᮄऎϪ㑾໻䘧 1568ো Ёᓎ໻ॺ 22ὐ˄200122˅ ⏅ഇᏖ⽣⬄ऎЁᖗϝ䏃8োЁֵ 䆕ࠌ໻ॺ˄518048˅ 佭␃Ё⦃⏏㕢䘧 1োЁֵ ໻ॺ 26ὐ Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S. ህ৥㕢೑ഄऎথ䗕ⷨお᡹ਞ㗠԰ⱘ໪೑㒣㑾ଚ-Ѹᯧଚໄᯢ This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company (“CITIC Securities”, regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder. ᴀ᡹ਞ⬅Ёֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ˄ ㅔ⿄ĀЁֵ䆕ࠌāˈফЁ೑䆕ⲥӮⲥㅵ 㒣ˈ㧹䆕ࠌϮࡵ䆌ৃ䆕㓪ো Z˖20374000˅ ࠊ԰DŽᣝ✻lj1934ᑈ㕢೑䆕ࠌѸᯧ⊩ḜNJϟⱘ 15a-6(a) (2)㾘߭ˈ೼㕢೑ᴀ᡹ਞ⬅Ёֵ䆕ࠌҙ৥ 15a-6 㾘߭ঞ݊ϟlj㕢೑䆕ࠌѸᯧྨਬӮ᮴ᓖ䆂ߑNJ᠔ᅮ НⱘĀЏ㽕㕢೑ᴎᵘᡩ䌘㗙āথ䗕DŽ