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首页 【哈耶克】货币理论与经济周期.pdf

【哈耶克】货币理论与经济周期.pdf

【哈耶克】货币理论与经济周期.pdf

上传者: freezingfire 2012-10-08 评分 0 0 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《【哈耶克】货币理论与经济周期pdf》,可适用于高等教育领域,主题内容包含FIRSTPUBLISHEDLIBRARYOFCONGRESSCATALOGUECARDNUMBERPRINTEDINTHEUNITEDTATBOP符等。

FIRSTPUBLISHEDLIBRARYOFCONGRESSCATALOGUECARDNUMBERPRINTEDINTHEUNITEDTATBOPAMERICAbySENTRYPRES,NEWYORK,NVIOOIO,INTRODUCTIONTOTHESERIESTHEscienceofEconomics,likeallotherbranchesofknowledge,recognizesnolimitationbynationalboundariesContiguityofresidencemaygiveacertainunitytothespeculationofparticulargroupsofeconomists,atraditionofgoodteachingmaygiveapresumptionofexcellencetotheproductsofparticularseminarsandinthissenseitisnotfoolishtospeakoflocalschoolsofeconomicthought,ortoattachgeographicallabelstoparticulartheoriesButtospeakofEconomics,asdistinctfromeconomists,intermsofnationalormunicipalclassifications,todistinguishanEnglishEconomicsfromaContinentalEconomics,andsoon,hasnomoresensethantospeakofEnglishArithmeticThecriteriaofscientificvaliditytakenoaccountoforigins,andtheeconomistwhorefusedtoavailhimselfofaparticularsetofpropositionsbecausetheywereforeignwouldbeactingnolessunscientificallythanthechemistorphysicistwhoactedonINTRODUCTIONsimilarprinciplesIthasbeenwellsaidthatthereareonlytwokindsofEconomicsgoodEconomicsandbadEconomicsAllotherclassificationsaremisleadingUnfortunately,theeconomist,farmorethanthepractitionerofthenaturalsciences,isvictimtothecurseofBabelThechemistandthephysicistdealingastheydowithtangibleandquantitativerelationsbetweeneasilydefinablethingscanconverseinwhattoallintentsandpurposesisaninternationallanguageAverymodestlinguisticequipmentissufficienttoenableonetofollowallthechiefcontributionsinsuchbranchesofscienceInEconomicsthisisnotsoThecomplicatedsocialrelationshipswhichareitschiefpreoccupationlendthemselvesmuchlesstomerelysymbolicanalysisNodoubt,evenhere,mathematicalmethodscanbeofconsiderableusebothinassistingthoughtandinsecuringcompleteprecisionButthedescriptionofwhatthesymbolsrepresent,thedelimitationandinterpretationofconcepts,thesearematterswhich,inthesocialsciences,requireawealthofqualitativeterminologyandasubtletyofexpressioncalculatedINTRODUCTIONtostraintothefulltheresourcesofanylanguageSmallwonder,then,thattheprofessionaleconomist,withlimitedtimeandlimitedpowersathisdisposal,willoftenconcludethatdepthistobepreferredtobreadthandthatamoreintensiveexploitationoftheresourcesavailabletohiminhisownlanguageislikelytoyieldmorethantheattempttoassimilatematerialonlyavailableinforeigntonguesSmallwondertoothat,inconsequenceoftheseconditions,thereisprobablymoreoverlappingandwastefulduplicationofeffortinEconomicsthaninanyotherbranchofscientificknowledgeIknowofnonaturalscienceinwhichitwouldbepossibleforamantodevoteyearstothediscoveryofpropositionswhicharealreadycommonplacesinlanguageareasotherthanhisownItisnotoriousthatinEconomicsthisfrequentlyhappensItfollows,therefore,that,inEconomics,evenmorethanelsewhere,thereisanurgentneedforacontinuousseriesoftranslationswhichshallmakeavailabletoeconomistsindifferentcountriestheresultsofinvestigationsinlanguagesotherthantheirownInEnglandbeforethewarINTRODUCTIONthisneedwasbeginningtobemetTheBrucetranslationofPantaleoni,theWotzeltranslationofPierson,theSmarttranslations•ofBohmBawerk,areexamplesofworkofahighorderofscholarshipandliteraryexcellencewhichkeptusintouchwiththebestproductsofcontemporarythoughtabroadButthewar(whichupsetsomanygoodthings)interruptedthisprocessofinternationalization,andsincethewarithasnotbeencompletelyresumedThisseriesisanattempttomakegoodthegaptomakeavailabletoEnglishandAmericanreadersthechiefrecentcontributionsinforeignlanguagestotheadvancementofEconomicScienceItisunnecessarytointroduceatlengththeauthorofthepresentvolume,ProfessorvonHayek,untilrecentlyDirectoroftheAustrianInstitutfurKonjunkturforschung,nowTookeProfessorofEconomicScienceandStatisticsintheUniversityofLondonProfessorHayek'sPricesandProduction,andhisvariouscontributionstoEconomicaandtheEconomicJournalwillalreadyhavemadehimfamiliartomostEnglishINTRODUCTIONreadersinterestedinrecentdevelopmentsinthetheoryofmoneyandcreditThepresentvolume,MonetaryTheoryandtheTradeCycle,isatranslationofaworkwhichwaspublishedinAustriabeforePricesandProduction,andwhichdealswiththeproblemoftradefluctuationfromamoregeneralpointofviewTheprefacemakesclearthepreciserelationshipbetweenthisworkandtheauthor'sotherinvestigationsinthesamefieldLIONELROBBINSTheLondonSchoolofEconomicsSeptemberCONTENTSPREFACEITHEPROBLEMOFTHETRADECYCLEIINONMONETARYTHEORIESOFTHETRADECYCLEIIIIMONETARYTHEORIESOFTHETRADECYCLEIOIIVTHEFUNDAMENTALCAUSEOFCYCLICALFLUCTUATIONSVUNSETTLEDPROBLEMSOFTRADECYCLETHEORYIINDEXANALYSISOFCONTENTSCHAPTERITHEPROBLEMOFTHETRADECYCLETherelationbetweenempiricalobservationandtheoreticalexplanationTheuseofstatisticsintheverificationoftheoryThetaskofstatisticsistogiveaccurateinformationabouteventswhichfallwithintheprovinceoftheoryThemaindivisioninTradeCycletheoryisthedivisionbetweenmonetaryandnonmonetarytheoriesThepurposeofthefollowingessayCHAPTERIINONMONETARYTHEORIESOFTHETRADECYCLEAgeneralrefutationofsuchtheoriesisdifficultonaccountoftheabsenceofanadequateclassificationTheselectionofsubjectmatterforthepresentenquiryTheorieswhichexplaintheCycleintermsofthetechnicalconditionsofproductionThesealloverlooktheessentialfunctionofthemechanismofrelativepricesThewayinwhichpricesreacttosuchchangesin'data'asareassumedinthesetheoriesfurtherexaminedTheorieswhichexplainfluctuationswithreferencetophenomenaarisingoutoftheprocessofsavingandinvestmentPsychologicaltheoriesAllthesetheoriesassumethevariabilityofcreditThemaindifferencebetweenmonetaryandotherchangesineconomic'data'Theexistenceofmonetarydisturbanceshavingbeenassumed,thefirsttaskoftheoryistoexamineallthedeviationsfromthesystemcontemplatedbythepuretheoryofequilibriumwhichmustnecessarilyfollowfromthisassumptionANALYSISOFCONTENTSCHAPTERIIIMONETARYTHEORIESOFTHETRADECYCLEThemaintasksofamonetarytheoryoftheTradeCycleMonetaryexplanationsshouldnotproceedfromchangesinthegenerallevelofpricesTheessentialpointistheeffectonthestructureofproductionofchangesinthevolumeofmoneySuchchangesinthestructureofproductionarefundamentallyindependentofchangesinthevalueofmoneyMostcriticismsofthemonetaryexplanationareduetoamisunderstandingofthispointChangesinindividualpricerelationshipsmustbethemainfocusofattention,forsuchchangescauseshiftsinthedirectionofproductionPhenomena(suchasdeviationsbetweenthenaturalandthemoneyratesofinterest)whicharefundamentallyindependentofchangesinthevalueofmoneyAdvantagesoftheproposedmethodofapproachthepossibilityofarapprochementbetweenmonetaryandnonmonetarytheoriesCHAPTERIVTHEFUNDAMENTALCAUSEOFCYCLICALFLUCTUATIONSTheproblemistodiscoverwhycertainchangesin'data'areabletoleadthesystemawayfromequilibriumExogenousandendogenousmonetarytheoriesOfthreepossiblewaysofincreasingthevolumeofmoney,themostimportant,fromthepresentpointofview,isthecreationofcreditbythebanksConfusiononthispointisduelargelytoafailuretodistinguishbetweenthepossibilitiesopentoasinglebankandthoseopentothebankingsystemasawholeTheactualoriginofadditionalcreditsANALYSISOFCONTENTSThepossibilityofbankersarbitrarilycreatingcreditsisruledoutbecause,inindividualcases,itisimpossibletodistinguishbetweenthosedepositswhicharosethroughcashpaymentsandthosewhichfindtheiroriginincreditThereactionofthebankstoanincreaseddemandforcreditTheprocessofcreditexpansionanditscessationElasticityinthevolumeofcirculatingmediaisasufficientcauseofcyclicalfluctuationThesignificanceofthesemonetaryinfluencesfromthepointofviewofTradeCycletheorynTheirbearingonpolicyCHAPTERVUNSETTLEDPROBLEMSOFTRADECYCLETHEORYAllvariationsinthevolumeofeffectivecirculationnecessarilyinvolvemovementsotherthanthosewhichcanbeimmediatelydeducedfromthepropositionsofstatictheoryThemostimportanteffectsareviamovementsinthestructureofthemoneyratesofinterestwhichthuspresentaseriesofimportantproblemsThesignificanceoffluctuationsinthenaturalrateofinterestTheconceptofanaturalorequilibriumrateofinterestTherelationbetweentheequilibriumrateandtheactual(money)rateofinterestForcedsavingasacauseofeconomiccrisesInterestratesinthemoneyandcapitalmarketsrespectivelyProblemsforstatisticalinvestigationPREFACETHEGermanessay*,ofwhichthefollowingisatranslation,representsanexpandedversionofapaper*preparedforthemeetingoftheVereinfiirSozialpolitik,heldinZurichinSeptember,andofsomeremarkscontributedtothediscussionatthatmeetingAlthough,inrevisingthetranslation,Ihavemadenumerousminoralterationsandadditions(mainlyconfinedtothefootnotes),thegeneralcourseoftheargumenthasbeenleftunchangedThebook,therefore,stillshowssignsoftheparticularaimwithwhichitwaswrittenInsubmittingittoapublicdifferentfromthatforwhichitwasoriginallyintended,afewwordsofexplanationare,perhaps,required*GeldtheorieundKonjunkturtheorie(BeitragezurKonjunkturforschung,herausgegebenvomOsterreichischesInstitutfiirKonjunkturforschung,No)ViennatEinigeBemerkungentiberdasVerhdltnisderGeldtheoriezurKonjunkturtheorieinvol,partofthe'SchriftendesVereinsfurSozialpolitik,*MiinchenSchriftendesVtreinsfiirSozialpolitik,vol,pp,MiinchenPREFACEInGermany,somewhatincontrasttothesituationinEnglishspeakingcountries,monetaryexplanationsoftheTradeCyclewerealways,oratleastuntilquiterecently,regardedwithsomemistrustOneoftheaimsofthisstudyoneonwhichanEnglishreadermayfeelthatIhavewastedunnecessaryenergywastojustifythemonetaryapproachtotheseproblemsButIhopethatthismoreexplicitstatementoftheroleofthemonetaryfactorwillnotbefoundquiteuseless,foritisnotonlyajustificationofthemonetaryapproachbutalsoarefutationofsomeoversimplifiedmonetaryexplanationswhicharewidelyacceptedInordertosavethesoundelementsinthemonetarytheoriesoftheTradeCycle,Ihadtoattempt,inparticular,torefutecertaintheorieswhichhaveledtothebeliefthat,bystabilizingthegeneralpricelevel,allthedisturbingmonetarycauseswouldbeeliminatedAlthough,sincethisbookwaswritten,thisbeliefhasbeensomewhatrudelyshakenbythecrisisof,IhopethatasystematicexaminationofitsfoundationswillstillbefoundusefulThecritiqueoftheprogrammeoftheStabilizers',whichisinmanywaysthePREFACEcentralthemeofthisbook,hasnowoccupiedmeformanyyears,andsinceIdealhereonlywithsomespecialproblemswhichhavegrownmainlyoutofthesestudies,Imayperhapsbepermittedtoreferbelowtootherpublications,inwhichIhavepartlydealtwithcertainfurthertheoreticalproblemsandpartlyattemptedtousetheseconsiderationsfortheelucidationofcontemporaryphenomena*Inparticular,myPricesandProduction,originallypublishedinEngland,shouldbeconsideredasanessentialcomplementtothepresentpublicationWhileIhavehereemphasizedthemonetarycauseswhichstartthecyclicalfluctuations,Ihave,inthatlaterpublication,concentratedonthesuccessivechangesintherealstructureofproduction,whichconstitutethosefluctuationsThisessentialcomplementofmytheoryseemstometobethe•DieWdhrungspolitikderVereinigtenStaatenseitderUberwindungderKrisevon,ZeitschriftfurVolkswirtschaftundSozialpolitik,NF,volv,DasintertemporaleGleichgezvichtssystemderPreiseunddieBewegungendesGeldwertes,'WeltwirtschaftlichesArchiv,'vol,,The'Paradox'ofSaving,'Economica'No,MayPricesandProduction,London,ReflectionsonthePureTheoryofMoneyofMrJMKeynes,'Economica'Nos,DasSchicksalderGoldwdhrung,DerDeutscheVolkswirt,Kapitalaufzehrung,'WeltwirtschaftlichesArchivvol,BPREFACEmoreimportantsince,inconsequenceofactualeconomicdevelopments,theoversimplifiedmonetaryexplanationshavegainedundeservedprominenceinrecenttimesAndsince,inallmyEnglishpublications,Ihavepurposelyrefrainedfromcombiningpurelytheoreticalconsiderationswithdiscussionsofcurrentevents,itmaybeusefultoaddhereoneortworemarksonthebearingofthoseconsiderationsontheproblemsoftodayItisacuriousfactthatthegeneraldisinclinationtoexplainthepastboombymonetaryfactorshasbeenquicklyreplacedbyanevengreaterreadinesstoholdthepresentworkingofourmonetaryorganizationexclusivelyresponsibleforourpresentplightAndthesamestabilizerswhobelievedthatnothingwaswrongwiththeboomandthatitmightlastindefinitelybecausepricesdidnotrise,nowbelievethateverythingcouldbesetrightagainifonlywewouldusetheweaponsofmonetarypolicytopreventpricesfromfallingThesamesuperficialviewwhichseesnootherharmfuleffectofacreditexpansionbuttheriseofthepricelevel,nowbelievesthatouronlyPREFACEdifficultyisafallinthepricelevel,causedbycreditcontractionTherecan,ofcourse,belittledoubtthat,atthepresenttime,adeflationaryprocessisgoingonandthatanindefinitecontinuationofthatdeflationwoulddoinestimableharmButthisdoesnot,byanymeans,necessarilymeanthatthedeflationistheoriginalcauseofourdifficultiesorthatwecouldovercomethesedifficultiesbycompensatingforthedeflationarytendencies,atpresentoperativeinoureconomicsystem,byforcingmoremoneyintocirculationThereisnoreasontoassumethatthecrisiswasstartedbyadeliberatedeflationaryactiononthepartofthemonetaryauthorities,orthatthedeflationitselfisanythingbutasecondaryphenomenon,aprocessinducedbythemaladjustmentsofindustryleftoverfromtheboomIf,however,thedeflationisnotacausebutaneffectoftheunprofitablenessofindustry,thenitissurelyvaintohopethat,byreversingthedeflationaryprocess,wecanregainlastingprosperityFarfromfollowingadeflationarypolicy,CentralBanks,particularlyintheUnitedStates,havebeenmakingearlierPREFACEandmorefarreachingeffortsthanhaveeverbeenundertakenbeforetocombatthedepressionbyapolicyofcreditexpansionwiththeresultthatthedepressionhaslastedlongerandhasbecomemoreseverethananyprecedingoneWhatweneedisareadjustmentofthoseelementsinthestructureofproductionandofpriceswhichexistedbeforethedeflationbeganandwhichthenmadeitunprofitableforindustrytoborrowBut,insteadoffurtheringtheinevitableliquidationofthemaladjustmentsbroughtaboutbytheboomduringthelastthreeyears,allconceivablemeanshavebeenusedtopreventthatreadjustmentfromtakingplaceandoneofthesemeans,whichhasbeenrepeatedlytriedthoughwithoutsuccess,fromtheearliesttothemostrecentstagesofdepression,hasbeenthisdeliberatepolicyofcreditexpansionItisveryprobablethatthemuchdiscussedrigidities,whichhadalreadygrownupinmanypartsofthemoderneconomicsystembefore,would,inanycase,havemadetheprocessofreadjustmentmuchslowerandmorepainfulItisalsoprobablethattheseveryresistancestoPREFACEreadjustmentwouldhavesetupaseveredeflationaryprocesswhichwouldfinallyhaveovercomethoserigiditiesTowhatextent,underthegivensituationofarelativelyrigidpriceandwagesystem,thisdeflationaryprocessisperhapsnotonlyinevitablebutiseventhequickestwayofbringingabouttherequiredresult,isaverydifficultquestion,aboutwhich,onthebasisofourpresentknowledge,IshouldbeafraidtomakeanydefinitepronouncementItseemscertain,however,thatweshallmerelymakemattersworseifweaimatcuringthedeflationarysymptomsand,atthesametime(bytheerectionoftradebarriersandotherformsofstateintervention)doourbesttoincreaseratherthantodecreasethefundamentalmaladjustmentsMorethanthat:whiletheadvantagesofsuchacourseare,tosaytheleast,uncertain,thenewdangerswhichitcreatesaregreatTocombatthedepressionbyaforcedcreditexpansionistoattempttocuretheevilbytheverymeanswhichbroughtitaboutbecausewearesufferingfromamisdirectionofproduction,wewanttocreatefurthermisdirectionaprocedurewhichcanonlyPREFACEleadtoamuchmoreseverecrisisassoonasthecreditexpansioncomestoanendItwouldnotbethefirstexperimentofthiskindwhichhasbeenmadeWeshouldmerelyberepeating,onamuchlargerscale,thecoursefollowedbytheFederalReservesystemin,anexperimentwhichMrACMiller,theonlyeconomistontheFederalReserveBoardand,atthesametime,itsoldestmember,hasrightlycharacterizedas'thegreatestandboldestoperationeverundertakenbytheFederalreservesystem',anoperationwhich'resultedinoneofthemostcostlyerrorscommittedbyitoranyotherbankingsysteminthelastyearsItisprobablytothisexperiment,togetherwiththeattemptstopreventliquidationoncethecrisishadcome,thatweowetheexceptionalseverityanddurationofthedepressionWemustnotforgetthat,forthelastsixoreightyears,monetarypolicyallovertheworldhasfollowedtheadviceofthestabilizersItishightimethattheirinfluence,whichhasalreadydoneharmenough,shouldbeoverthrownWecannothopefortheoverthrowofthisalluringlysimpletheoryuntilitstheoreticalbasisPREFACEisdefinitelyrefutedandsomethingbettersubstitutedforitTheopponentsofthestabilizationprogrammestilllabourandprobablyalwayswilllabourunderthedisadvantagethattheyhavenoequallysimpleandclearcutruletoproposeperhapsnoruleatallwhichwillsatisfytheeagernessofthosewhohopetocureallevilsbyauthoritativeactionButwhatevermaybeourhopeforthefuture,theonethingofwhichwemustbepainfullyawareatthepresenttimeafactwhichnowriterontheseproblemsshouldfailtoimpressuponhisreadersishowlittlewereallyknowoftheforceswhichwearetryingtoinfluencebydeliberatemanagementsolittleindeedthatitmustremainanopen

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