The relationship between gold and money（黄金和货币的关系）

The relationship between gold and money（黄金和货币的关系） The relationship between gold and money(黄金和货币的关系) The relationship between gold and money Gold is not natural money, but money is natural gold." Gold is a common reserve currency in the world and a common investment tool for avoiding inflation. The monetary value of a country is determined by the gold reserve and the economic strength of a country. Factors affecting the price of gold 1. Supply factors: The supply side mainly has: The gold stock on the ground. There are about 137 thousand and 400 tons of gold all over the world, while the stock of gold on the ground is still growing at about 2% a year. Annual supply and demand. The annual supply and demand of gold is about 4200 tons, and the annual output of gold accounts for 62% of the total annual supply. The cost of gold production is quite high. The average total cost of gold mining is about $275 / ounce. Some older South African gold mines dig deeper and costs nearly $400 an ounce. The political, military and economic changes in the gold producing countries. Any political or military instability in these countries will undoubtedly directly affect the quantity of gold produced in the country, thereby affecting the world's gold supply. Central bank gold sell-off. The central bank is the largest holder of gold in the world, in 1969 the official gold reserves of 36458 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the total stock of gold was all the surface, and by 1998 the official gold reserves of about 34000 tons, accounting for all the gold mining stock 24.1%. According to the current production capacity, this is equivalent to 13 years of world gold ore production. The main purpose of gold by the important reserve assets gradually transformed into a raw material for the production of metal jewelry, or to improve their balance of payments, or to suppress the international price of gold, so in 30 years the central bank's gold reserves both in absolute number and relative number are greatly decreased, the decline in the number of gold reserves mainly by selling stock in the gold market. For example, the Central Bank of England had massive sell-off, the Swiss central bank and the International Monetary Fund, reducing gold reserves, etc., is also the focus of the international gold market. 2. Demand factors: The demand for gold is directly related to the use of gold. Changes in the actual demand for gold (jewelry, industry, etc.). In general, the development speed of the world economy determines the total demand for gold, for example in the field of microelectronics, more and more use of gold as a protective layer; in medicine, building decoration and other fields, despite the progress of science and technology makes gold substitutes appear constantly, but the gold metal with its special nature of the demand is still rising. The need to preserve value. Gold reserves have been used by central banks as an important means of preventing domestic inflation and regulating the market. For ordinary investors, investing in gold is mainly in the case of inflation, to achieve the purpose of maintaining value. In a depressed economy, gold prices rose as demand for gold rose as gold relative to currency assets insured. For example: after the Second World War the three dollar crisis, due to the international balance of payments deficit serious trend in the United States, countries holding dollar increase, the market for the dollar confidence shaken, investors panic buying gold, led directly to the Bretton Woods system of bankruptcy. In 1987, due to the devaluation of the dollar, the United States increased the deficit, instability in the Middle East and so on, but also contributed to the sharp rise in international gold prices. Speculative demand. Speculators according to the international and domestic situation, the price fluctuations of the gold market, and gold futures market trading system, a large number of "selling" or "fill in" gold, gold demand artificially manufactured illusion. In the gold market, almost every big fall and borrowing of hedge fund short-term gold in the spot gold market and sell in COMEX gold futures exchange to build a large number of relevant positions. When gold prices fell to a 20 year low in 1999 July, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed that speculative bears in COMEX were close to 9 million ounces (nearly 300 tonnes). When a trigger stop selling, gold prices fall, the fund company took the opportunity to profit back, when gold prices rebounded slightly, from producer hedging long-term selling to suppress the price of gold to rise further, At the same time, new opportunities for fund companies were re established to sell short positions, forming a wave of gold prices below one wave. 3. Other factors: Dollar exchange rate effect. The dollar exchange rate is also one of the important factors that affect the price of gold. Generally in the gold market, the dollar rose, the price of gold fell; the dollar fell, the law of gold prices. A strong dollar general on behalf of the domestic economic situation is good, the domestic stock and bond investors will be sought after race, gold has been weakened as a store of value function; and the dollar exchange rate decline is often associated with inflation, such as the stock market, gold value function and reflected again. This is because the devaluation of the dollar is often associated with inflation, and the higher the value of gold, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and inflation intensified, often stimulate gold hedging and speculative demand rise. In August 1971 and February 1973, two times the U.S. government announced the devaluation of the dollar, the dollar fell sharply in effect, inflation and other factors, the price of gold rose to the highest level in history at the beginning of 1980, exceeded 800 U.S. dollars / ounce. Looking back over the past 20 years, the dollar has strengthened against other Western currencies, while the price of gold has fallen on the international market; the price of gold has risen if the market lacks confidence in the dollar. The monetary policy of each country is closely related to the international gold price. When a country adopts loose monetary policy, because the interest rate drops, the country's money supply increases, which increases the possibility of inflation, and will lead to the rise of gold price. As of 60s the low interest rate policy to promote the domestic capital outflows, large inflows of US dollars into Europe and Japan, countries increase due to dollar net positions, appeared on the dollar began to worry, in the international market to sell dollars, panic buying gold, and eventually led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. The influence of inflation on gold price. In this regard, long-term and short-term analysis should be carried out, and should be combined with inflation in the short term. In the long term, the annual inflation rate if the change in the normal range, then the price fluctuations did not affect; only in the short term, prices rose sharply, causing people to panic, the monetary unit of the decline in purchasing power, the price of gold will rise significantly. Although entered in 90s, the world entered the era of low inflation, gold as a symbol of currency stability is diminishing. Moreover, as a long-term investment tool, gold yields are increasingly lower than bonds and stocks and other securities. But in the long run, gold is still an important means of fighting inflation. The impact of international trade, fiscal and foreign debt deficits on gold prices. Debt, a worldwide problem, is not only a unique phenomenon in developing countries. In the debt chain, not only the debtor itself can not lead to insolvency of economic stagnation, and economic stagnation and further deterioration of the debt creditor even vicious spiral, will crack due to debt relationship with the country, face the risk of financial collapse. At this time, countries will maintain a large amount of gold for the maintenance of their economy, causing gold prices in the market to rise. International political instability, war, etc. Major international political and war events will affect the price of gold. The government pays for the war or for the maintenance of the domestic economy, and a large number of investors switch to gold, which increases demand for gold and stimulates the price of gold. Such as the two World War, the United States and Vietnam War, the 1976 coup in Thailand, the 1986 Iran gate incident and so on, have made gold prices rise in varying degrees. For example, the terrorist attacks on the US World Trade Center in 2001 and September caused the price of gold to soar by $270. The influence of stock market on the price of gold. Generally, the stock market is down and the price of gold goes up. This mainly reflects the investors on the prospects for economic development is expected, if everyone in the economy generally bearish outlook, is a large outflow of funds in the stock market, the stock market cooling, the price of gold up. In addition to the above factors affecting the price of gold, the intervention activities of the international financial organizations and the policies and regulations of the central financial institutions in China and other regions will also have a major impact on changes in world gold prices. Gold is the final means of payment between countries, when necessary What is the relationship between the monetary value of a country and his gold reserves? 1., the storage of gold in a country has a direct bearing on the appreciation and depreciation of the country's currency Generally speaking, when a country appreciates its currency and has more gold reserves, the devaluation does not necessarily mean that gold reserves are reduced. This can be found in two countries, China and japan. You see, the yen is often devalued, for trading; China is no different. Conversely, you have to say that gold reserves are too much and that currencies appreciate, and that is not true. The exchange rate is a comparison of purchasing power, the essence of which is the comparison of economic strength. 2., someone in the people's Bank of China to store a lot of cash, transfer to the United States, if you want to withdraw cash in the United States. Bank of America need to ask for equivalent amount of gold in the Bank of China?. Not currency. - no, it will come to the gold, waste transfer cost and storage cost, communication and technology developed today, with gold delivery is a fantastic thing to do. International reserves, in addition to gold, there are many, such as the payment unit is also possible. Generally speaking, the bank system, liquidation, rolling flat inch may be used when gold. 3., the economic strength of a country is directly related to the country's gold reserves. - generally speaking, strong economic strength, industrial development, the natural ability to buy gold is greatly enhanced, and the processing needs a large amount of gold, so the economic strength of the natural need to have large reserves of gold, a financial, and for industry, three for luxury goods. The 4. world, the bank that stores gold, has the right to issue money. The theory is, so to speak, but of course too large range, which belongs to the national currency is mandatory, legal, which is not a gold bank can issue. In fact, there is no gold, as long as the power to issue money, there will soon be rolling gold, 49 years ago in China is a clear example. Of course, the bank issue of gold without gold reserves is a disaster for the users, such as the Yuan Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty and the Republic of china. 5., the US military spending on Iraq reduced the gold reserves of the US Treasury, although its currency Depreciation of gold reserves - this is too far fetched, spending hundreds of billions of dollars each year in the United States, the war in Iraq is not the main reason, slow economic growth, trade measures, monetary policy is the dollar, although already can't use to describe the beauty of gold, but also do not need to support gold. The United States trade deficit and capital surplus, it is in a large number of the use of other countries' gold reserves, from a certain point of view, China and Japan's gold reserves, in fact, a lot of services for the United states.