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首页 【政治学】总统选举:美国政治的战略与结构

【政治学】总统选举:美国政治的战略与结构.pdf

【政治学】总统选举:美国政治的战略与结构

九月虺
2012-08-27 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《【政治学】总统选举:美国政治的战略与结构pdf》,可适用于人文社科领域

PresidentialElectionsPRESIDENTIALELECTIONSStrategiesandStructuresofAmericanPoliticsTHIRTEENTHEDITIONNelsonWPolsbyAaronWildavskyStevenESchierDavidAHopkinsROWMANLITTLEFIELDPUBLISHERS,INCLanham•Boulder•NewYork•Toronto•Plymouth,UKPublishedbyRowmanLittlefieldPublishers,IncAwhollyownedsubsidiaryofTheRowmanLittlefieldPublishingGroup,IncForbesBoulevard,Suite,Lanham,Marylandhttp:wwwrowmanlittlefieldcomEstoverRoad,PlymouthPLPY,UnitedKingdomCopyright©byThePolsbyFamilyTrust,StevenESchier,DavidAHopkinsAllrightsreservedNopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformorbyanyelectronicormechanicalmeans,includinginformationstorageandretrievalsystems,withoutwrittenpermissionfromthepublisher,exceptbyareviewerwhomayquotepassagesinareviewBritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationInformationAvailableLibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationDataPresidentialelections:strategiesandstructuresofAmericanpoliticsNelsonWPolsbyetalthedpcmIncludesbibliographicalreferencesandindexISBN(cloth:alkpaper)ISBN(pbk:alkpaper)ISBN(electronic)PresidentsUnitedStatesElectionIPolsby,NelsonWJKPdc`™ThepaperusedinthispublicationmeetstheminimumrequirementsofAmericanNationalStandardforInformationSciencesPermanenceofPaperforPrintedLibraryMaterials,ANSINISOZPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaFromNelsonWPolsbyandAaronWildavsky:Toourgrandchildren:BenjaminPolsbyStern,EvaMiriamWildavsky,AaronAlexanderWildavsky,EdwardPolsbyStern,SaulAbrahamWildavskyFromStevenESchier:Tomyfamily,Mary,Anna,andTeresaSchierFromDavidAHopkins:TomyfamilyandfriendsContentsListofFigure,Tables,andBoxesxiPrefacexiiiPartITHESTRATEGICENVIRONMENTVOTERSWhyPeopleDon’tVoteWhyPeopleDoVote:ATheoryofSocialConnectednessPartyIdentificationasSocialIdentityPartiesasAggregatesofLoyalVotersIdeologies,Candidates,andIssuesintheMindsofVotersChangesinPartyIdentification:SocialHabitversusContemporaryEvaluationACentralStrategicProblem:TheAttentivenessofVotersGROUPSThePresidentialVoteasanAggregationofInterestGroupsVariationsamongInterestGroups“Special”InterestsandPublicInterestGroupsPoliticalPartiesasOrganizationsThirdPartiesRULESANDRESOURCESRules:TheElectoralCollegeThinkingaboutResourcesviiviii|CONTENTSResources:MoneyTheBeverlyHillsPrimaryCampaignMoneyinthePrenominationPeriodRaisingandSpendingMoneyintheGeneralElectionDoesMoneyBuyElectionsCampaignFinanceReformResources:ControloverInformationNewspapersTelevisionTheInternetandOtherNewMediaIncumbencyasaResource:ThePresidencyIncumbencyasaLiability:TheVicePresidencyTheBalanceofResourcesPartIISEQUENCESTHENOMINATIONPROCESSBeforethePrimariesIowaandNewHampshire:TheFirstHurdlesWhatDoTheseHistoricalVignettesTeachStatePrimariesStateCaucusesSuperdelegatesTheNationalPartyConventionsCandidateOrganizationsattheConventionsPartyDelegatesattheConventionsCONTENTS|ixTheConventionasAdvertisingTheVicePresidentialNomineeTheFutureofNationalConventionsTHECAMPAIGNTheWellTraveledCandidatesPersuadingVotersEconomicIssuesForeignIssuesSocialIssuesPresentationofSelfNegativeCampaigningGettingGoodPressCampaignProfessionalsPolicyAdvisersPollingFocusGroupsTelevisionAdvertisingNewMediaTelevisedDebatesGettingOuttheVoteCampaignBlundersForecastingtheOutcomeCountingtheVotePartIIIISSUESAPPRAISALSThePoliticalTheoryofPolicyGovernmentReformbyMeansofParticipatoryDemocracySomeSpecificReformsTheNominationProcessTheDeclineoftheNationalConventionTheElectoralCollegePartyPlatformsandPartyDifferencesAMERICANPARTIESANDDEMOCRACYElectionsandPublicPolicyPartiesofAdvocacyversusPartiesofIntermediationAPPENDIXESAVotebyGroupsinPresidentialElections,–BVoterTurnoutinPresidentialElections,byPopulationCharacteristics,–CSelectionsfromtheDemocraticandRepublicanPartyPlatforms,NotesIndexx|CONTENTSFigure,Tables,andBoxesFigureTheeffectofincomegrowthonincumbentpartysuccess,–TablesVoterturnoutinselectedworlddemocraciesTurnoutofeligiblevotingagepopulationinpresidentialandmidtermelections,–Turnoutinstateswithsamedayvoterregistration,Presidentialelectionresults,–Partyidentificationbysocialgroup,Partyidentification,–RepublicanswinbydoingwellwithlargegroupsTheDemocraticpartybase:smaller,loyalgroupsThepartiesascoalitionsofsocialgroups,–VoteforDemocraticpresidentialcandidatebyagegroup,–Thegendergap:Votesinpresidentialelectionsbysex,–Theriseofpoliticalactioncommittees(PACs),–Thegrowthofpresidentialprimaries,–Theriseofnationalpartyfundraising,–Federalcampaignspending,–Federalcampaignspendingadjustedforinflation,–xixii|FIGURE,TABLES,ANDBOXESEarlymoneyintheelectionThefrontloadingofthepresidentialprimarycalendar,–IncomeofdelegatesandpartyvotersinSelecteddelegatesurveys,–Democraticdelegatestotheleftofrankandfilepartymembersandpublic,Republicandelegatestotherightofrankandfilepartymembersandpublic,Numberofpresidentialballotsinnationalpartyconventions,–WhichpartyisbetterforprosperityDemocratsversusRepublicansonforeignpolicyReformcommissionsoftheDemocraticParty,–Outcomesundertheunitruleandthreealternatives,selectedelections,–BoxesInthearena:ObamaandMcCainvotersspeakonissues,ideology,andcandidatesInthearena:groupendorsementsforObamaandMcCainInthearena:InternetmoneyandmessageinthecampaignandbeyondInthearena:NewspaperendorsementsinInthearena:WhichcampaignadswereeffectiveInthearena:CampaignprofessionalsonthegeneralelectioncampaignATOUROFNATIVEPEOPLESANDNATIVELANDS|xiiiPrefaceNELSONWPOLSBYandAaronWildavskyfirstmetasgraduatestudentsatYaleUniversityinthemidsandsoonbecameclosefriendsaswellasprofessionalcollaboratorsAsPolsbylaterremembered,theyhatchedtheideaforthisbookduringalongconversationovertheThanksgivingholidayin,afewweeksafterJohnFKennedy’snarrowelectiontothepresidencyPresidentialElectionsfirstappearedin,andrevisededitionshaveproceededatregularfouryearintervalseversince,reflectingthecontinuingevolutionofAmericanelectoralpoliticswhileeducatinggenerationaftergenerationofreadersWildavskydiedonSeptember,,andPolsbypassedawayonFebruary,Wehopetheirvitality,imagination,wit,andcommitmenttofairandaccuratepoliticalsciencearestillasvisibletoreadersofthesepagesastheyaretousaswepreparethisnewedition,evenasthemarchofeventsandtheprogressofscholarshipintheyearssincetheyfirstwrotethisbookhavecontinuedtounearthmanyadditionalmattersdeservingsignificantconsiderationThoughtheelectionproducedmorethantheusualnumberofnewissues,questions,andmilestones,webelievethatthebasictheoreticalfoundationestablishedinthefirsteditionofPresidentialElectionsandbuiltuponinsubsequentvolumesremainsassoundaseverPutsimply,thepagesthatfollowarguethattheinstitutionalrulesofthepresidentialnominationandelectionprocesses,incombinationwiththebehaviorofthemasselectorate,structurethestrategicchoicesfacedbypoliticiansinpowerfulandforeseeablewaysWecanmakesenseofthedecisionsmadebydifferentlysituatedpoliticalactorsincumbents,challengers,Democrats,Republicans,consultants,partyofficials,activists,delegates,journalists,andvotersbyunderstandingthewaysinwhichtheirworldisorganizedbyincentives,regulations,events,resources,customs,andopportunitiesThisnewthirteentheditionofPresidentialElectionsistheresultofcollaborationbetweenStevenESchierandDavidAHopkinsDave,oneofPolsby’slastgraduatestudentsintheDepartmentofPoliticalScienceattheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,alsoassistedinthecreationofthetwopreviouseditionsWesoughttomaintainthequalityandoriginalityofearlierversionsofthisbookwhileupdatingthetexttoreflectthecontemporarypoliticalenvironmentThetheoreticalperspectivesofPolsbyandWildavsky,developedespeciallyinthevolume’sfinaltwochapters,remainofcentralimportancetothestudyofpresidentialelectionsdespitetheongoingchangesinxiiixiv|PREFACEcampaignstrategies,technologies,andproceduresaccountedforinthisnewlyrevisededitionItisagreathonorforustocontinuethepublicationofPresidentialElections,allowingfuturestudentsofAmericanpoliticstobenefitfromtheinsightsofitstwofoundingauthorsWeareespeciallyindebtedtoLindaOPolsbyandMaryWildavsky,andtoLisa,Emily,andDanPolsby,fortheirfaithinourabilitytotakeupthemantleThanksalsotoNielsAaboeatRowmanLittlefieldforhisinitiative,support,andenthusiasmforproducingathirteentheditionWeexpressourgratitudetoJonathanBernsteinforhisinvaluablecontributionstopreviouseditionsWebenefitedgreatlyfromtheassistanceofJamesKersonandYaelLevin,andfrommuchconstructivekibitzingbythecolleaguesandstudentswhohavesustainedourmoraleeverydayatCarletonCollegetheUniversityofCalifornia,BerkeleyandBostonCollegeSpecialthankstothegraduatestudents,staff,andlibrariansatBerkeley’sInstituteofGovernmentalStudiesfortheirunwaveringassistanceandencouragementStevenESchierNorthfield,MinnesotaDavidAHopkinsChestnutHill,MassachusettsTheStrategicEnvironmentTHESTRATEGIESofalltheparticipantsinpresidentialelectionsaretoacertainextentconstrained,andtoacertainextentdriven,bythewaysinwhichactorsaresituatedwithrespecttoconditionsthatareforthemgivenandhardtomanipulateHerearesomeexamples:therulesgoverninghowvotesarecounted,thesequenceinwhichprimaryelectionsoccur,theacceptedpracticesofcampaignjournalism,whethercandidatesareincumbentsorchallengers,andthehabitsofvotersAlltheseconditionsneedtobetakenintoaccountbyparticipantsandneedtobeunderstoodbyobserversIPARTVotersMORETHANMILLIONAmericansvotedinthepresidentialelectionMillionsmorewhowereoldenoughtovotenearlymillionindidnotPartiesandcandidatesdependontheirsupporterstoturnoutonElectionDayAndsoitisimportantforthemtoknowwhysomepeopleshowupatthepollsandothersdonotIntworespects,AmericansaredifferentfromcitizensofotherdemocraticnationsAsmallerproportionofAmericanswillusuallyvoteinanygivenelectionthanthecitizensofmostotherdemocracies,butAmericanscollectivelyvotemuchmoreoften,andonmorematters,thananyoneelseVotingbehaviorisoneofthemostcarefullystudiedpoliticalactivitiesWhovotesWhodoesn’tvoteWhovotesforwhichcandidateandwhyEachofthesequestionsisthesubjectofextensivestudyWhyPeopleDon’tVoteAlotofelectionsnotjustpresidentialcontestsbutalsocongressional,state,andlocalelectionstakeplaceintheUnitedStatesAmericansarenotedfortheirlukewarmlevelsofparticipationascomparedwithvotersinmostworlddemocracies,especiallythoseofWesternEuropeTablecomparesthevotingturnoutrateofAmericansinthemostrecentelectionforpresidentwhenparticipationishighesttothemostrecentturnoutfiguresinthenationalelectionsofotherdemocraticcountriesWhydon’tAmericansvotemore,oratleastmorelikeEuropeansInsomerespects,tobesure,theelectionsbeingcomparedarenotexactlythesameParliamentaryelectionsinmanyplacesforexample,theUnitedKingdomrequirevoterstodoonlyonething:placeasingleXonaballottofillanofficemoreorlesslikethatofaUSrepresentativeinCongressWhoendsuprunningthegovernmentinthesecountriesdependsonhowmanyparliamentariansofeachpoliticalpartyareelected(fromoverconstituenciesintheUK),andsomostvoterscastpartylinevotesanddonotmuchcareabouttheidentityofindividualsontheballotBallotsinUSpresidentialelectionsarelongerandmorecomplex:theyrequirevotingforpresidentandvicepresident,membersoftheHouseofRepresentatives,senators(twothirdsofthetime),variousstateandlocaloffices,ballotpropositions,andsoonAmericanballotsthereforedemandquitealotCHAPTER|CHAPTERofknowledgefromvotersIngeneral,AmericansdonotinvesttheirtimeandenergyinbecomingknowledgeableaboutallthechoicestheyarerequiredtomakeButAmericanvotersdoturnoutforpresidentialelectionsmoreconscientiouslythanformidtermcongressionalelections,sothecomplexityofpresidentialelectionsisclearlynotadeterrenttovoting(seetable)Tothecontrary,theaddedpublicityofapresidentialcampaignobviouslyhelpsturnout,asdothegreatersumsofmoneyspentbycandidatesandtheincreasedlevelofcampaignactivityinpresidentialelectionsbypoliticalactivistsandinterestgroupsAnoftenheardexplanationoflowturnoutintheUnitedStates(lowbythestandardsofotherWesterndemocracies)isthatAmericansareunusuallydisaffectedfrompoliticsandthatabstentionfromvotingistheirmethodofshowingtheirdisapprovalof,oralienationfrom,thepoliticalsystemScholarshavebeendeeplyinterestedinthesubjectofpoliticalalienation,buttheyhaveshownthatthisexplanationoflowturnoutisimprobableoratbestincompleteTABLEVoterturnoutinselectedworlddemocraciesCountryTurnoutofvotingagepopulationCompulsoryvotingEligiblerequiredtoregisterBelgiumYesAutomaticIcelandNoNADenmarkNoAutomaticAustraliaYesAutomaticSwedenNoAutomaticGreeceNoAutomaticItalyNoAutomaticNewZealandNoYesFinlandNoAutomaticNetherlandsNoAutomaticSpainNoAutomaticFranceNoNoNorwayNoAutomaticGermanyNoAutomaticIsraelNoAutomaticPortugalNoNAIrelandNoAutomaticJapanNoAutomaticUnitedKingdomNoAutomaticUnitedStatesNoYesCanadaNoYesSwitzerlandNoAutomaticSource:InternationaldatafromInternationalInstituteforDemocracyandElectoralAssistance,“VoterTurnout,”lastupdatedMay,,http:wwwideaintvtUSdatafromMichaelPMcDonald,“GeneralElectionTurnoutRates,”lastupdatedOctober,,http:electionsgmueduTurnoutGhtmlNote:ThepercentagelistedforeachcountryistheproportionofthevotingagepopulationcastingballotsinthemostrecentnationalelectionasofVOTERS|ThereareseveralelementstotheirdemonstrationFirst,scholarsnotethattheconstellationofsentimentsassociatedwithalienationdisaffection,lossoftrustingovernment,andsoonaremoreprevalent,onthewhole,inmanycountrieswhereturnoutisrelativelyhighAmericansdonotexpressespeciallynegativefeelingstowardgovernmentOnmoremeasuresthannot,AmericansactuallyreportmorepositiveattitudesaboutgovernmentthancitizensofotherdemocraticnationsAmericansalsorankcomparativelyhighinotherformsofpoliticalparticipation:expressinginterestinpolitics,discussingpoliticswithothers,tryingtopersuadeothersduringelections,andworkingforcandidatesorpartiesoftheirchoiceWithintheUnitedStates,peoplewhodon’tlikeordon’ttrustgovernmentvoteaboutasfrequentlyaspeoplewhodoAbetterexplanationforwhatreallydistinguishesAmericansfromtheirmoreparticipatorycounterpartselsewhereistheexistenceofstringentvoterregistrationrequirementsintheUnitedStatesWhilemostotherdemocraticnationseitherconsideralloftheircitizenstobeautomaticallyregisteredtovote,requiringnospecialinitiativeonthepartoftheprospectivevoter,orcombinevoterregistrationwithenrollmentforuniversalgovernmentbenefitssuchashealthinsuranceorpensionprograms,everyAmericanstateexceptNorthDakotarequirescitizenstoapplytotheircity,town,orcountygovernmentspecificallyinordertoparticipateinelections,includingpresidentialelectionsInmoststates,registrationmustbecompletedatleastthirtydaysbeforetheelection,whenpoliticalinterestamongthepublichasyettopeakMoreover,Americancitizensmustregisteralloveragaineachtimetheychangeaddress,evenwhentheymovewithinthesamestateorcityBecausetheUnitedStatesisanunusuallymobilenationinanygiventwoyearperiod,roughlyonethirdofTABLETurnoutofeligiblevotingagepopulationinpresidentialandmidtermelections,–YearPresidentialelectionsYearMidtermelectionsSource:HaroldWStanleyandRichardGNiemi,VitalStatisticsonAmericanPolitics,–(Washington,DC:CQPress,),–MichaelPMcDonald,“GeneralElectionTurnoutRates,”lastupdatedJanuary,,http:electionsgmueduTurnoutGhtml|CHAPTERtheAmericanpublicwillhavemovedatleastoncealotofreregisteringisrequiredinordertomaintainvotingrightsMoststatesalsohavelawspermittingorrequiringregularpurgesofthevotingrollstoremovecitizenswhohavenotvotedforacertainnumberofyearsorwhoarebelievedsometimesincorrectlytohavemoved,died,orbecomeineligibletovoteduetoacriminalconvictioniftheyareindeedstillamongtheeligibleliving,theseindividualsmustregister

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【政治学】总统选举:美国政治的战略与结构

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