美国债务上限

The US debt ceiling 美国债务上限 What if the talks fail?  如果谈判失败,后果将如何？ [Jul 26th 2011, 12:07 by Buttonwood  EVERYONE in the markets has known about the August 2nd debt ceiling deadline for a while but have tended to blithely assume that a deal will be done. Other crises, notably Europe's sovereign debt problems, have loomed larger in investors' minds. Only now, with a week to go before the deadline, are they starting to fret. 近一段时间，大凡在市场上摸爬滚打的人都知道8月2日是美国债务上限的截止日期，不过他们都愿意乐观地认为民主、共和两党会在截止日期之前达成协议。其它危机，尤其是欧洲主权债务问题更加令投资者擔心。只是现在距离最后期限日仅剩一周时间，他们才开始 表 关于同志近三年现实表现材料材料类招标技术评分表图表与交易pdf视力表打印pdf用图表说话 pdf 现出焦虑的心情。 There is no sign of panic yet and investors are probably assuming three things. Option 1 is that a deal will be done at 11.59 on August 1st, even if it is only a stopgap. Option 2 is that August 2nd is not the hard-and-fast date it has been made out to be. Some analysts are suggesting that, since tax revenues have been higher than forecast, the government can pay its bills until August 10th, or even September. Option 3 is that the government puts workers on temporary lay-offs or stops payments to suppliers before it defaults on its debts. 然而市场还未出现恐慌迹象，投资者可能在设想三件事情。第一，协议会在8月1日11点59分达成，即便它仅是一个应急之策。第二，8月2日并不是象它所预设那样的十分严格的时间点。一些分析家暗示既然税收收入高过预期，政府可将帐单支付延缓至8月10日，甚至可以延长到九月。第三，政府在债务违约前可让工人暂时性失业或停止向供应商付款。 But what if all those options failed? What would be the consequence of even a notional default? The IMF has talked of a global recession if there was a loss of confidence in US solvency although it's not clear that a failure to roll over debt for a few days would qualify for that description. 但是如果这些 方案 气瓶 现场处置方案 .pdf气瓶 现场处置方案 .doc见习基地管理方案.doc关于群访事件的化解方案建筑工地扬尘治理专项方案下载 全部落空了呢？甚至只是名义上的违约又将会酿成什么后果呢？国际货币基金组织曾谈及如果人们对美国债务偿还能力失去信心，将会导致全球经济衰退。但是如果美国无法将其债务期限做一段时间的延长，那会不会出现前述的情形呢？对此目前尚无定论。 Having seen what happened with Lehman's default, the main worry would be a freeze in the markets. Take the finances of banks, for example. Many use Treasury bonds as the risk-free asset for capital purposes. As Capital Economics points out 目睹了雷曼兄弟违约所产生的后果影响，人们的主要忧虑将集中于市场的冻结。以银行的财政状况为例，许多人利用国债作为无风险资产以实现资本用途。正如资本经济所指出的那样： Government debt is only automatically 0% risk-weighted for banks under Basel II if it is rated AA- or higher (although regulators can make exceptions for domestic government debt issued in local currency). In principle, therefore, financial institutions would face significantly higher capital charges in the event of a US government default. 在新巴塞尔协议框架下，如果政府债务被评级为AA或更高，那么对于银行而言，它仅是风险加权被自动设置为0%而已 。（尽管监管机构能将以本地货币形式发行的国内政府债务做例外处理）。因此从原则上讲，美国政府如果出现违约状况，金融机构将面临更加高额的资本支出。 In practice, it seems likely that the regulators would move quickly to waive the rules. But there might be a few hairy moments while they did. And what about money-market funds? Having been burned by the credit crunch, many have opted for the safe haven of US Treasury bills. Perhaps they could roll over those bills into some form of IOU from the government. But if investors demanded their money back at a time when Treasury bills were illiquid, money-market funds might be forced to suspend resumptions or "break the buck". Then there is the repo market, widely used by financial institutions to raise money; Treasury securities are used as collateral for such borrowing. 但从实际来看，监管机构似乎可能会采取迅速行动,免除这些规则。但这样的做法可能会让他们在一段时间内日子很难过。那么货币市场基金又会如何呢？吃过信贷紧缩苦头的很多人可能会选择购买美国国库券以作稳妥之计。他们或许会采用债务展期将这些债券转换成政府的借据。但投资者如果在国库债券流动性不足的时候 要求 对教师党员的评价套管和固井爆破片与爆破装置仓库管理基本要求三甲医院都需要复审吗 收回他们的钱银，那么货币市场基金可能会被迫暂停货币回笼或“跌破票面价值”。除此之外，还存在一个回购市场,金融机构普遍利用它来筹集资金；国库券则被用做借贷的抵押品。 Standard & Poor's has considered this scenario and suggests that 标准普尔公司考虑到这种情形并给出以下暗示： Failure to pay off maturing debt or missing interest payments (approximately $62 billion of interest is payable on Aug. 15) would constitute a selective default pursuant to our criteria, and Standard & Poor's expects it would lower the sovereign rating to 'SD'. Even if the Fed and other central banks managed to keep the financial system functioning, we expect that markets around the world would be severely damaged. In such a hypothetical scenario, we expect that equity markets would generally plunge, borrowing costs and interbank lending rates would soar, and corporate credit markets would be closed to all but the highest quality issuers. We envisage that consumers and businesses would likely stop spending on all but essential items, and the value of the dollar would drop by 10% or more against other major currencies. With the dollar heading lower, investors would likely look for hard assets like oil and other commodities, driving prices higher. 按照我们的标准，未偿还到期债务或支付利息（8月15日需要支付的利息约620亿美元）将构成选择性违约，标准普尔公司预计它会将美国国债评级降至违约"D"级。即使美联储和其它央行设法使金融系统体系运作正常，但我们预计全球市场将受到严重损害。在这种假设的情形下，我们预计股市会普遍暴跌，举债成本和银行同业拆借利率将会飙升，企业信贷市场将会对最优质发行者以外的所有人关闭。据我们猜测,消费者和企业可能对必需品以外的商品停止消费，美元对其它主要货币的价值将下跌10%或者更多。随着美元持续走低，投资者可能会寻求石油和其它商品那样的硬资产，推动价格不断上涨。 Given the fragility of the economic recovery, this is an incredible risk to contemplate. It is also worth noting that, even a freeze on government spending that stopped short of a default, would have a significant impact on demand. 鉴于经济复苏的脆弱性，这种难以置信的风险需要加以考虑。同样值得一提的是,即使政府为避免违约而冻结开支,仍将对需求产生重大影响。 Investors may be holding on to Treasury bonds because they have little option. The only other market that is liquid enough to absorb their cash is European government debt, and that has its own problems. The relative tranquility of the markets at the moment might, however, be the calm before the storm. 投资者可能继续持有国债,因为他们可选择性很小。欧洲政府债务是唯一能吸收他们的资金且流动性强的市场，但它也有其自身的问题。然而,目前市场的相对平静可能只是暴风雨来临之前的短暂宁静。