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us consumption will enter the ice age around 15

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us consumption will enter the ice age around 15us consumption will enter the ice age around 15 U.S. consumption will enter the ice age of about 15 years Press: in December 5th, the Guangzhou branch of China Everbright Bank and the "First Financial Daily" reader club jointly held a "talk about 'shares' on...

us consumption will enter the ice age around 15
us consumption will enter the ice age around 15 U.S. consumption will enter the ice age of about 15 years Press: in December 5th, the Guangzhou branch of China Everbright Bank and the "First Financial Daily" reader club jointly held a "talk about 'shares' on the' gold 'seminar. President of the Institute of global finance Song Hongbing was invited to deliver a speech. The guest speaker main view and exciting interactive sorting presents to readers. On the whole, we need to do a global financial analysis, what is the current financial market situation. The last great depression in 1929, after the collapse of the capital market, soon in 1930 there was a very violent rebound, which is the famous bear market rally concept of origin. The rebound in the stock market rebounded 50%. If the United States opened in 1930 the major newspapers, the date and the name of the company removed, the description and tone of the newspaper, and today's report on Wall Street is very similar. The same year today, indeed also appeared a year looks very much like the situation of recovery, so the year of Buffett very influential teacher - Benjamin Graham (Benjamin Graham) also misjudgments, market dips in 1929 after the fall, finally a drain, he later reached two as a warning for the future. Principle: first, do not loss; second, do not forget the first. Miscarriage of justice trends and investment, especially for value investment and long-term investment, the consequences can be disastrous. After May 1931, the outbreak of a major crisis, the birthplace of the crisis is far from the global financial center of Austria, a sudden collapse of Austria's biggest bank, and soon and several other countries broke out a series of bank failures. The so-called Great Depression era actually began at this time, it started in May 1931, after which the world has been around for nearly 10 years, for some countries is more than ten years of economic depression. Today? Followed by the 2007 subprime crisis, the financial tsunami in 2008, we seem to see the magnitude of the rebound in 2009 reached 50%. 1930 rebound, the amplitude is more than 50%, the market out of the curve is quite similar to the current. Now, the key is how to judge the real trend. If we judge that the global economy has been completely recovered, there will be a new bull market, which is the starting point of the bull market. If we judge that the current crisis is not the end of the follow-up there is a problem, then it is necessary to judge that the current rebound in the price is true, and now will not be the same as in 1930, is the beginning of a new round of decline? To carry out this judgment, the key is to determine the trend of the U.S. economy to determine the fundamentals of the U.S. economy. We can from the United States investment, consumption, export three carriages of the angle, from the short term, long-term perspective to analyze the U.S. economy two. Exports accounted for only about 10% of the U.S. economy, it is difficult to play the main driving force to stimulate the U.S. economy. Moreover, the dollar is an international currency, which requires the United States to export the dollar through the trade deficit, so the United States exports will not be much improvement. From the investment point of view, the United States is in fact facing the same problem with China, that is, the government investment is the only major investment, while private investors, due to the weak end consumer market, is not willing to follow up. The current U.S. government investment led economic growth in 2/3. The real key lies in consumption. Our judgment is that the United States is difficult to shake the short term, long-term into a 15 year or so by the population structure of the "ice age"". The short term, although the official unemployment rate hovering around 10% and recently has increased, but if according to the U.S. Department of labor statistics of the generalized unemployment concept, the overall unemployment rate was about 17.5%, I think this is the real unemployment rate. In the great depression, the highest unemployment rate in the United States reached 25%, the average unemployment rate in the past 10 years is 18%. In other words, America's unemployment rate is approaching the level of the great depression. A few days ago, the United States reached a new high Thanksgiving spending, but few people noticed that the return rate after Thanksgiving has reached a record high. Many people buy gifts for relatives and friends, but after receiving the gift, a lot of people took the gift to the mall returned to cash. In the medium and long term, population size and population structure are the fundamental factors influencing consumption. After the end of World War II in 1945, 12 million of the soldiers, followed by the so-called "baby boom era" (which peaked in 1961), during this period, the United States a total of 79 million of the population was born, this group of people accounted for nearly half of American employment population, the population of 1/3. They constitute a huge consumer groups in the U.S. market, but also constitute the backbone of American society. to the statistics of the U.S. Department of labor, the Americans in life According consumption, and age is directly related to, from 20 to 50 years old, married, with employment, jobs increased, consumption increased year by year, from $15 thousand a year after the age of 20 to 48 years old reached the peak of $40 thousand. After 50 years of age began to decline in consumption. In this way, if the baby boom in 1961 to high, to 48 year old high consumption, then in 2009 (1961+48) is the highest point of the U.S. population structure to guide consumption. From the current population structure of the United States, from 2009 to around 2024, the United States will enter a 15 year period of severe decline in consumption. One evidence is that the United States in the 70s to the last century, the stock market in the depression, and the first wave of the first post-war populationSuch a black swan event will happen next year? Song Hongbing: I don't think there will be a default because it will change the rules of the game. Now has changed, there is no spot, and now can be replaced with the form of gold ETF. But we should also pay attention to the gold ETF spot gold reserves risk, such as a gold ETF is mentioned, it can guarantee the payment of gold, but it points out in the contract, because the problem of gold hosting parties and lead the risk can not be cashed in spot gold is not responsible for them. Such problems need to be considered. Q: when did you start investing in gold, what is the main form of ownership? Song Hongbing: I began to invest in gold and silver in 2001, mainly gold stocks as well as physical gold, different stages of the stock is not the same, has been the main investment in kind. Q: you mentioned in your speech, the U.S. stock market is an important factor in the rise of the dollar devaluation. You continue to expect that the dollar will continue in the medium and long term, so the U.S. stock market will not be a rising trend? Song Hongbing: devaluation means the real decline in the purchasing power of money. If this situation is to invest in stocks, even if the Dow Jones index rose, the actual return of investors, the real return on investment is declining.
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