油价迎来“低迷周期” 中东“石油魔咒”难消

油价迎来“低迷周期” 中东“石油魔咒”难消 IMF最新 报告 软件系统测试报告下载sgs报告如何下载关于路面塌陷情况报告535n,sgs报告怎么下载竣工报告下载 预测，在5年或更短时间内，中东部分产油国将用光现金，包括石油输出国组织(欧佩克)成员国沙特、阿曼和巴林。 IMF估算，仅2015年，低油价就将令中东地区财富蒸发3600亿美元。低油价“寒冬”来袭，中东国家将何去何从?本期圆桌会议，我们邀请到三位专家对此进行解读。 全球经济差 催生低油价 记者:此轮国际原油价格暴跌的原因何在?造成中东国家目前窘境的还有其他原因吗? 王勇:本轮油价下跌由多重原因造成，包括全球经济增长整体下滑，对石油总需求下降;技术创新、页岩油气开发、新能源等技术;中东北非动乱、乌克兰冲突等地区冲突导致有关经济活动、人员往来减少等。美元上涨以及热钱回流美国也是一个因素。除油价低迷外，造成中东国家目前窘境的还有其他原因，比如中东地区的动乱、难民潮、经济结构单一等。 陈凤英:一个现实的原因是全球经济转型，过去的高增长已不存在，发展模式不存在了，经济发展由过去粗放型进入新常态。这样，石油市场就出现供大于求的状况。与此同时，美元也逐步开始升值，使得石油市场进入又一个低迷的周期。 与其他投资不同，石油投资有一个5年到7年的滞后期，人们在2007年高油价时期进行投资。例如，美国加大对页岩油、油砂等的开采力度，最终导致原油产能在7年后过剩了。可以说，所有支撑油价上涨的因素都已经不存在。而为了争夺客户，石油出口国大打价格战，必然影响石油收入。当然，中东困局也与美国在中东的战略失误分不开。英美推翻一些国家的原有政权，但这一行为却给该地区带来混乱。 马博:国际原油价格走低因素很多。国际原油价格曾在2003年时每桶20美元左右，当时英媒预测原油价格进入“10美元时代”，预测中东产油国的“石油经济”时代将结束。随后，国际石油价格却一路走高，最高达2008年的每桶近150美元，随后的全球金融危机也并未从根本上影响油价。 我认为，此轮油价下跌，并非完全归结为全球经济复苏缓慢、新能源的使用等几个简单因素;况且石油价格不仅由供需决定，同时还是全球金融领域最具有投of chicken manure bacteria, eggs can be killed, make chicken manure safe organic fertilizer with high efficiency. Timely watering, make sure seedlings to moisture requirements. (4) the application of new type high efficient inhibitor fertilizer can effectively prevent damage caused by the effect of quick-acting organic fertilizer on seedling, and prevent soil compaction, promote healthy growth. 2, the use of some of the new technical measures, improve the survival rate (1) increased tree holes. Use of excavators and combine artificial dig tree holes, improve efficiency, increase the water storage capacity of tree holes, enhance seedling drought resistance. (2) covered. Seedlings planted in the winter and early spring season, and after filling flooded twice, points, and plastic film mulching tree holes, roots of both the temperature and reduce the moisture to evaporate, reducing plant death due to physiological drought, improve the survival rate of seedlings. (3) tree protection. After to the trunk with a rope winding, outside on the covered a layer of mulch, moisturizing, thermal insulation, can improve the survival rate of seedlings. (4) the use of branch Po. Bao is the latest technology of cultivation of fruit trees, branches, especially for more expensive but difficult branches of seedlings, have obvious effects in Garden tree species can also be used. Second, measures to reduce costs and shorten, reduce labor intensity 机性的商品之一，很大程度上也取决于国际投资者对石油价值的预期，以及产油国和石油进口国之间通过金融工具对价格展开的博弈。 中东谋转型 希望暂渺茫 记者:油价的“寒冬”来临，中东国家将如何应对? 王勇:中东产油国重要的是进行财政结构调整，减少开支、平衡财政;进行经济结构转型，推动产业多元化，包括发展制造业等，减少对石油产业的过度依赖。 同时，他们可以加大与新兴经济体合作，特别是与中印等国合作，有助于摆脱危机。对于中国企业“走出去”，包括正在推动的“一带一路”国际经济合作倡议说，也许是机遇，这个问 题 快递公司问题件快递公司问题件货款处理关于圆的周长面积重点题型关于解方程组的题及答案关于南海问题 需要认真研究。 陈凤英:中东国家真没有办法应对目前困境，因为低油价将持续一个比较长的时期。中国经济转型决心很大，不会再走过去那种粗放增长的道路。 因此，中东国家石油的收入肯定会持续下降。但地理环境决定了这些国家很难发展其他产业。当然，迪拜的转型比较成功，为改变单一的经济结构，迪拜一直实行开放多元的经济政策，大力发展商贸、旅游、金融、会展等第三产业。目 升至目前的97%。然而，迪前，非石油经济在迪拜GDP中的比重从1975年的46% 拜毕竟只有一个。 很多国家在高油价时期没有转型，到低油价时期转型就更困难。首先，自己手里没有钱;其次，外部资本也因这些国家经济形势差不敢进来。而且，中东很多国家的政权都不稳定，现在又出现难民问题，谁愿意去投资? 中东其实已经陷入一个“石油魔咒”，油价高经济就好，油价低经济就困难。可以说，中东已经到了历史上最困难的时期。 马博:近年来，中东油气生产国一直在试图发展多元化经济，改善以往依靠石油的单一的经济增长模式。拿阿联酋为例，阿布扎比引进许多美国一流大学，为其提供资金、土地;迪拜大力发展旅游业和海洋、航空运输业，目前已经打造成为中东地区最有影响力空港，试图成为类似纽约、伦敦那样的“全球城市”。 此外，阿联酋还积极和世界主要国家开展商贸往来和对外投资。拿对中国的投资看，阿联酋近几年在宁夏的投资已经超过10亿美元。此举可以分散本国投资风险，多元化本国经济。 of chicken manure bacteria, eggs can be killed, make chicken manure safe organic fertilizer with high efficiency. Timely watering, make sure seedlings to moisture requirements. (4) the application of new type high efficient inhibitor fertilizer can effectively prevent damage caused by the effect of quick-acting organic fertilizer on seedling, and prevent soil compaction, promote healthy growth. 2, the use of some of the new technical measures, improve the survival rate (1) increased tree holes. Use of excavators and combine artificial dig tree holes, improve efficiency, increase the water storage capacity of tree holes, enhance seedling drought resistance. (2) covered. Seedlings planted in the winter and early spring season, and after filling flooded twice, points, and plastic film mulching tree holes, roots of both the temperature and reduce the moisture to evaporate, reducing plant death due to physiological drought, improve the survival rate of seedlings. (3) tree protection. After to the trunk with a rope winding, outside on the covered a layer of mulch, moisturizing, thermal insulation, can improve the survival rate of seedlings. (4) the use of branch Po. Bao is the latest technology of cultivation of fruit trees, branches, especially for more expensive but difficult branches of seedlings, have obvious effects in Garden tree species can also be used. Second, measures to reduce costs and shorten, reduce labor intensity 能源波动影响地缘格局 王勇:油价下跌对于产油国以外的国家将产生正面影响，全球经济从整体看受益。低油价将导致中东国家被迫进行财政、社会福利政策调整，同时也会影响到中东地缘格局，即产油国收入减少，对外援助、对外政策的力度都会降低，在某种程度上减少有关国家对外干预的能力。中东北非动荡与有关产油国的政策倾向性有关，加剧了有关冲突。 陈凤英:可以说，石油供需格局目前已经发生变化。除中东石油供应源外，又出现美国为代表的北美油气供应源以及俄罗斯、巴西等多油气供应中心。此外，货币资本格局也发生变化。石油、美元多，发达国家的经常项目逆差就多，因为这些国家依赖石油进口。油价下跌之后，发达国家的经常项目逆差就下降。对石油出口国而言，其收入就减少。另一个方面是美元升值，原来流入新兴市场的货币开始流出去。 马博:低油价对整个中东地区产生的政治影响取决于众多因素。首先，中东地区的稳定与否，同样将决定未来石油价格的波动。其中存在着利比亚、叙利亚、伊拉克乱局是否会继续扩大的问题，如果影响到如伊朗、沙特等主要产油国，那么国际石油市场和价格必将重新洗牌。 在全球化、信息化时代的今天，国际石油价格对全球经济格局仍然有着牵一发而动全局的影响力。 记者:中东出现的情况会否影响世界能源以及政治格局? 短期内对中国利大于弊 记者:从短期、中长期来看，中东国家目前的窘境，对中国的发展有何影响? 王勇:中国作为石油净进口国家总体受益，为中国经济提供转型、改革的好时机，也利于中国加强能源安全及战略储备的建设。但一个不利的影响是，由于低油价可能造成中国消费者对于石化能源的依赖，新能源、再生能源产业的发展可能受到冲击。 陈凤英:对中国来说，大宗商品价格下降后，全球贸易量下降，而中国是最大的货物贸易出口国，自然受到极大的影响;但另一方面，中国可以用同样的钱买到更多的商品，可以减轻通货膨胀的压力。中国现在通货膨胀压力这么小，一个很重要的原因就是大宗商品价格便宜。 of chicken manure bacteria, eggs can be killed, make chicken manure safe organic fertilizer with high efficiency. Timely watering, make sure seedlings to moisture requirements. (4) the application of new type high efficient inhibitor fertilizer can effectively prevent damage caused by the effect of quick-acting organic fertilizer on seedling, and prevent soil compaction, promote healthy growth. 2, the use of some of the new technical measures, improve the survival rate (1) increased tree holes. Use of excavators and combine artificial dig tree holes, improve efficiency, increase the water storage capacity of tree holes, enhance seedling drought resistance. (2) covered. Seedlings planted in the winter and early spring season, and after filling flooded twice, points, and plastic film mulching tree holes, roots of both the temperature and reduce the moisture to evaporate, reducing plant death due to physiological drought, improve the survival rate of seedlings. (3) tree protection. After to the trunk with a rope winding, outside on the covered a layer of mulch, moisturizing, thermal insulation, can improve the survival rate of seedlings. (4) the use of branch Po. Bao is the latest technology of cultivation of fruit trees, branches, especially for more expensive but difficult branches of seedlings, have obvious effects in Garden tree species can also be used. Second, measures to reduce costs and shorten, reduce labor intensity 与此同时，国际合作也相对困难了，因为这些中东国家经济面临困难，发展需要资本，全球合作中矛盾会增加。但因为需要资本，这些国家对中国的需求也增加，中国到这些国家投资的门槛就相对低很多。此外，他们也很需要向中国出口商品。这样，这些国家与中国的合作就增强了。 总的来说，作为资源进口国，目前油价低位运行，对中国利大于弊。 马博:中国对外石油依存度占60%，短期石油价格的低迷对这个世界原油进口第一大国显然有利，但长远则未必如此。 油价低迷会使国内大型油气生产企业出现利润下滑，并产生未来投资不足的问题，特别会对中国正在试图大力发展的远洋石油开采产业造成严重影响;同时，全球需求下降将进一步带动国内化工企业出现产能过剩的问题。此外，还会对当前仍处于起步发展阶段的新兴能源产业带来压力。 专家观点 油价下跌对于产油国以外的国家将产生正面影响，全球经济从整体来看会受益。 中东其实已陷入一个“石油魔咒”，油价高经济就好，油价低经济就困难。可以说，中东已经到了历史上最困难的时期。 短期油价的低迷对中国这个世界原油进口第一大国显然有利，但长远则未必如此。 of chicken manure bacteria, eggs can be killed, make chicken manure safe organic fertilizer with high efficiency. Timely watering, make sure seedlings to moisture requirements. (4) the application of new type high efficient inhibitor fertilizer can effectively prevent damage caused by the effect of quick-acting organic fertilizer on seedling, and prevent soil compaction, promote healthy growth. 2, the use of some of the new technical measures, improve the survival rate (1) increased tree holes. Use of excavators and combine artificial dig tree holes, improve efficiency, increase the water storage capacity of tree holes, enhance seedling drought resistance. (2) covered. Seedlings planted in the winter and early spring season, and after filling flooded twice, points, and plastic film mulching tree holes, roots of both the temperature and reduce the moisture to evaporate, reducing plant death due to physiological drought, improve the survival rate of seedlings. (3) tree protection. After to the trunk with a rope winding, outside on the covered a layer of mulch, moisturizing, thermal insulation, can improve the survival rate of seedlings. (4) the use of branch Po. Bao is the latest technology of cultivation of fruit trees, branches, especially for more expensive but difficult branches of seedlings, have obvious effects in Garden tree species can also be used. Second, measures to reduce costs and shorten, reduce labor intensity of chicken manure bacteria, eggs can be killed, make chicken manure safe organic fertilizer with high efficiency. Timely watering, make sure seedlings to moisture requirements. (4) the application of new type high efficient inhibitor fertilizer can effectively prevent damage caused by the effect of quick-acting organic fertilizer on seedling, and prevent soil compaction, promote healthy growth. 2, the use of some of the new technical measures, improve the survival rate (1) increased tree holes. Use of excavators and combine artificial dig tree holes, improve efficiency, increase the water storage capacity of tree holes, enhance seedling drought resistance. (2) covered. Seedlings planted in the winter and early spring season, and after filling flooded twice, points, and plastic film mulching tree holes, roots of both the temperature and reduce the moisture to evaporate, reducing plant death due to physiological drought, improve the survival rate of seedlings. (3) tree protection. After to the trunk with a rope winding, outside on the covered a layer of mulch, moisturizing, thermal insulation, can improve the survival rate of seedlings. (4) the use of branch Po. Bao is the latest technology of cultivation of fruit trees, branches, especially for more expensive but difficult branches of seedlings, have obvious effects in Garden tree species can also be used. Second, measures to reduce costs and shorten, reduce labor intensity of chicken manure bacteria, eggs can be killed, make chicken manure safe organic fertilizer with high efficiency. Timely watering, make sure seedlings to moisture requirements. (4) the application of new type high efficient inhibitor fertilizer can effectively prevent damage caused by the effect of quick-acting organic fertilizer on seedling, and prevent soil compaction, promote healthy growth. 2, the use of some of the new technical measures, improve the survival rate (1) increased tree holes. Use of excavators and combine artificial dig tree holes, improve efficiency, increase the water storage capacity of tree holes, enhance seedling drought resistance. (2) covered. Seedlings planted in the winter and early spring season, and after filling flooded twice, points, and plastic film mulching tree holes, roots of both the temperature and reduce the moisture to evaporate, reducing plant death due to physiological drought, improve the survival rate of seedlings. (3) tree protection. After to the trunk with a rope winding, outside on the covered a layer of mulch, moisturizing, thermal insulation, can improve the survival rate of seedlings. (4) the use of branch Po. Bao is the latest technology of cultivation of fruit trees, branches, especially for more expensive but difficult branches of seedlings, have obvious effects in Garden tree species can also be used. Second, measures to reduce costs and shorten, reduce labor intensity soekfz 大宗商品怎么开户www.edfs555.com of chicken manure bacteria, eggs can be killed, make chicken manure safe organic fertilizer with high efficiency. Timely watering, make sure seedlings to moisture requirements. (4) the application of new type high efficient inhibitor fertilizer can effectively prevent damage caused by the effect of quick-acting organic fertilizer on seedling, and prevent soil compaction, promote healthy growth. 2, the use of some of the new technical measures, improve the survival rate (1) increased tree holes. Use of excavators and combine artificial dig tree holes, improve efficiency, increase the water storage capacity of tree holes, enhance seedling drought resistance. (2) covered. Seedlings planted in the winter and early spring season, and after filling flooded twice, points, and plastic film mulching tree holes, roots of both the temperature and reduce the moisture to evaporate, reducing plant death due to physiological drought, improve the survival rate of seedlings. (3) tree protection. After to the trunk with a rope winding, outside on the covered a layer of mulch, moisturizing, thermal insulation, can improve the survival rate of seedlings. (4) the use of branch Po. Bao is the latest technology of cultivation of fruit trees, branches, especially for more expensive but difficult branches of seedlings, have obvious effects in Garden tree species can also be used. Second, measures to reduce costs and shorten, reduce labor intensity of chicken manure bacteria, eggs can be killed, make chicken manure safe organic fertilizer with high efficiency. Timely watering, make sure seedlings to moisture requirements. (4) the application of new type high efficient inhibitor fertilizer can effectively prevent damage caused by the effect of quick-acting organic fertilizer on seedling, and prevent soil compaction, promote healthy growth. 2, the use of some of the new technical measures, improve the survival rate (1) increased tree holes. Use of excavators and combine artificial dig tree holes, improve efficiency, increase the water storage capacity of tree holes, enhance seedling drought resistance. (2) covered. Seedlings planted in the winter and early spring season, and after filling flooded twice, points, and plastic film mulching tree holes, roots of both the temperature and reduce the moisture to evaporate, reducing plant death due to physiological drought, improve the survival rate of seedlings. (3) tree protection. After to the trunk with a rope winding, outside on the covered a layer of mulch, moisturizing, thermal insulation, can improve the survival rate of seedlings. (4) the use of branch Po. Bao is the latest technology of cultivation of fruit trees, branches, especially for more expensive but difficult branches of seedlings, have obvious effects in Garden tree species can also be used. Second, measures to reduce costs and shorten, reduce labor intensity of chicken manure bacteria, eggs can be killed, make chicken manure safe organic fertilizer with high efficiency. Timely watering, make sure seedlings to moisture requirements. (4) the application of new type high efficient inhibitor fertilizer can effectively prevent damage caused by the effect of quick-acting organic fertilizer on seedling, and prevent soil compaction, promote healthy growth. 2, the use of some of the new technical measures, improve the survival rate (1) increased tree holes. Use of excavators and combine artificial dig tree holes, improve efficiency, increase the water storage capacity of tree holes, enhance seedling drought resistance. (2) covered. Seedlings planted in the winter and early spring season, and after filling flooded twice, points, and plastic film mulching tree holes, roots of both the temperature and reduce the moisture to evaporate, reducing plant death due to physiological drought, improve the survival rate of seedlings. (3) tree protection. After to the trunk with a rope winding, outside on the covered a layer of mulch, moisturizing, thermal insulation, can improve the survival rate of seedlings. (4) the use of branch Po. Bao is the latest technology of cultivation of fruit trees, branches, especially for more expensive but difficult branches of seedlings, have obvious effects in Garden tree species can also be used. Second, measures to reduce costs and shorten, reduce labor intensity