600426华鲁恒升重点关注6月煤制乙二醇工艺（600426 Hualu-Hengsheng focus on the preparation of ethylene glycol in June coal process）

600426华鲁恒升重点关注6月煤制乙二醇工艺（600426 Hualu-Hengsheng focus on the preparation of ethylene glycol in June coal process） 600426华鲁恒升重点关注6月煤制乙二醇工艺(600426 Hualu-Hengsheng focus on the preparation of ethylene glycol in June coal process) 600426 Hualu-Hengsheng: focus on the preparation of ethylene glycol in June coal process Investment points: Domestic coal chemical industry leader. Company to clean coal gasification technology as the platform, the first in the industry to create a "circular economy polygeneration a head of line three, 01-09 annual income of the average annual compound growth rate of 29.42%, net profit compound annual average growth rate of 32.23%. Management and cost control are relatively good in chemical enterprises. The company's core strengths is the advanced coal gasification technology: Hualu is used in bituminous coal, while most domestic manufacturers either is anthracite, either purchased methanol. In the past 3 years, the average price of bituminous coal than anthracite low 370 yuan / ton. The next 2 years, coal gasification capacity will increase from 1 million 200 thousand tons to 2 million 200 thousand tons, 11, 12 years of production expansion of acetic acid, adipic acid and ethylene glycol project, horizontal and vertical expansion of the industrial chain, the transformation from the traditional to the new coal chemical coal chemical industry. Coal to ethylene glycol: technology is the key, worthy of attention: coal production process of ethylene glycol is generally in the commercial production of early stage, the technology is not yet fully mature, need to be further commercial operation of the test. If the company's coal - glycol project in June was successful, it would be a major technological breakthrough. From the perspective of the cost, the general naphtha route for preparing ethylene glycol cost about 7000 yuan / ton; Middle East Route ethane landed cost about 4000 yuan / ton; we expect ctmeg full cost about 4500-4800 yuan / ton (mass production may reduce about 20%). The progress of the first 200 thousand ton coal ethylene glycol plant in China is later than the market expectation. The core problem is that the stability of the catalyst in the process of producing ethylene glycol with oxalic acid hydrogenation is decreased, and the production load is only 30%. But we believe that with the accumulation of domestic research, technology mature, this piece of the future may achieve a breakthrough. At present, the company and the Shanghai Engineering Technology Co., Ltd. is co - operation, has the core catalyst patent, 10 thousand tons of pilot has been completed. Investment proposal: our Forecast Ltd EPS for 10-12 years were 0.43, 0.76 and 1.38 yuan, to give the recommended rating, 6-12 months target price of 20-25 yuan, corresponding to 10-12 years of price earnings ratio was 47, 26 and 14 times. Focus on the company's coal, ethylene glycol project. Risk warning: The project is progressing smoothly and product sales are below expectations. Quote the use of props reports, reply TOP free registered members, enjoy more premium services! Fastisslow Class five sea breeze member UID Three hundred and seventy-four thousand nine hundred and forty-seven Post Three hundred and two Essence Zero integral One thousand and nineteen physical strength Sixty-five cash Seven thousand four hundred and seventy-eight Reading authority Seventy Online time 74 hours Registration time 2009-9-7 Personal space sends short messages to friends currently offline 2 floor, small and medium-sized published in 2011-3-27, 22:00 only to see the author Bad how to change into a positive, and boost stock prices in a month and a half up 45.28%? The past two months, through the issuance and holdings, in anticipation of brokerage Research Report's recommendation, the core competitiveness of Huaneng Power Coal Gasification capacity will increase, and the demand and supply of cheap coal urea is expected to improve, acetic acid and DMF boom rebounded significantly, the next two years is expected to further grow into a comprehensive high-end coal chemical industry leading advantage by south so, in the concentrated excavation, and agreed to give the "recommended" rating, some brokers even stressed that "the performance is expected to explosive growth". In the three quarter of last year, due to DMF, acetic acid and trimethylamine as the main product prices in the doldrums and the price of coal methanol and purchased raw materials prices, Hualu-Hengsheng operating profit fell sharply by 55% of the defects were deliberately weakened, rising cost is replaced by the industry of cost advantage. Brokerage selective amnesia and targeted strengthening of major shareholders in the shares of 50 thousand small holdings with 12.39 yuan in January 24th, Huaneng Power started the lowest, more than a month has now risen to 18 yuan, an increase of up to 45.28%. While in the early last year, three, fourth quarter, INVESCO the Great Wall, China Southern, Noam, CCB's funds and Chinese life insurance products began to new or continued Holdings hualu-hengsheng. And in these funds holdings period, the brokerage research report is still recommended, but the wording of the wording of the cautious side. Broker selective forgetting In October 30, 2010, Hualu-Hengsheng released three quarterly, the first three quarters in the foundation to achieve operating income of 3 billion 350 million yuan, up 16.28%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 145 million, down 56.15%. Among them, the three quarter of the parent company attributable to the owners of the net profit fell 94.01%. The company's main income comes from the sale of urea, DMF and acetic acid. The three quarter, the price of urea, fluctuations in the cost of online coal prices and acetic acid price decline is mainly caused by the sharp decline in net profit hualu-hengsheng. In early November a brokerage Research Report, the reason has been repeatedly mentioned, "the low price engulfed corporate profits, methanol rise or drag on the performance of" cautionary words has also been applied to the title of the report, so "Huatai profit forecast 10 years down to 0.52 yuan / share," said that "in view of the company product prices in the doldrums and the rising costs of raw materials of double pressure". The poor performance led directly to the rapid callback Hualu Hengsheng stock price, November 10th to 18, the largest decline of 24.69%. In November 30th, Hualu-Hengsheng private placement is approved by the SFC news also failed to effectively alleviate the stock price fell. However, the turnaround is brewing. In December 1st, a depth research report at Duohualu Hengsheng South line. This called "coal gasification capacity will increase to 80%, pointed out that the prospect of coal chemical industry can be" high-end report, the next 2 years, the company will receive 80% of the coal gasification capacity to enhance the core competitiveness of the company, "is to have a clean coal gasification technology to replace the cheap lignite gasification of anthracite, the future ability of 2 year company will increase from 1 million 200 thousand tons to 2 million 200 thousand tons of ethylene glycol, adipic acid, the development of coal chemical industry and other high-end products to further consolidate the foundation of cost advantage, realize the transformation from traditional coal chemical industry to high-end coal chemical industry. " At the same time, "as between anthracite and bituminous coal price spreads rose rapidly and the price of the product and by-product argon bring unexpected earnings," company in the history of the worst period is over, the fourth quarter earnings will witness a significant rebound. In addition, the price of urea rose in the spring of 2011 under the influence of domestic demand, export and cost factors. The next 5 years, the elimination of backward production capacity; Sinopec and exit; gas from urea load running low; improve the industry barriers to entry; industry entrants to give up the production of urea product will make urea oversupply situation has been significantly improved, China Luheng up profit level of urea business will be guaranteed. In December 8th, Changjiang Securities published content of similar report "benefit the high prices of coal chemical industry leading subject", pointed out that the crude oil prices driven by the international price of agricultural products, and support domestic urea prices; international urea prices will support the price of synthetic ammonia / methanol and downstream products of coal chemical industry, the company is expected to fully benefit from the current to 2012; the company will pay more attention to the downstream of adipic acid, acetic acid, ethylene glycol and other capacity building, the performance of the company in 2012 will also result in substantial growth. However, these reports are rapidly drowning in the falls. In January 24th, Huaneng Power shares Yindie to 12.39 yuan, the holdings of shareholders Hualu-Hengsheng issued announcement, the controlling shareholder of the concerted action of Dezhou thermal power through the two market holdings of shares 50 thousand shares, accounting for 0.01%; and in the 12 months to not more than 13 yuan price continue to increase a total of not more than 12 million 715 thousand shares, accounting for 2%. The controlling shareholder of typical behavior to support the rapid turnaround underpinning, Huaneng Power shares rose slightly from year ago rise directly to a high position, to 13.3 yuan, 7.34%. In February 10th, the long report on the securities and futures company, "adjusting the structure, expanding production capacity, the company's performance will grow rapidly", once again stressed, Hualu-Hengsheng high-end coal chemical industry leading development trend, build supporting product group, polyurethane acetic acid and derivative product group, organic amine product group and fertilizer four plate ", and" lignite materials such as low cost, high resource utilization and engineering ability "as the core advantages. And boldly predicted, "the company's performance in 2012 is expected to explosive growth."". In the new year with a strong move Hualu-Hengsheng started, quickly recovered since the December private placement decline. In February 21st, Huaneng Power shares for pulled up to 15.5 yuan, an important resistance level. 22, CICC raised to sing the banner, "said Hualu-Hengsheng performance will usher in a new round of rapid growth", emphasize the reason of coal in the first in the industry, the cost advantage of urea acetic acid and DMF boom rebounded significantly, and the expansion of the performance improvement expected. See CICC direct promotion of Hualu Hengsheng eased important resistance across the platform. March 7th, Ping An Securities pointed out that the gas production capacity of Huaneng Power "continued to improve, expanding the product chain", "the implementation of coal chemical products production management mode of clean coal gasification technology, the cost advantage is obvious"; "the next 2 years, the gas production capacity continues to expand, or for the same reason as support. 16.5 yuan platform up weak, downward trend signs Hualu-Hengsheng therefore continuous force, in one fell swoop rushed to 18 yuan, the three quarter fell panic was successfully saved. The trend from the release date and price Hualu-Hengsheng the brokerage research reports, both highly complex, many years after the report of Huaneng Power to break up the key resistance effect is rather large. It is worth noting that during this period the main Hualu-Hengsheng did not change significantly, nor publish effect on stock price announcement of significant events, in addition to issuing and controlling shareholder holdings of 50 thousand shares, the news in smooth water. While the number of brokerage research reports, promising basis are also the first report of the south is surprisingly consistent, and emphasized the cost advantage is only relative to the industry, in fact, if the price of anthracite and lignite also continued to rise, the cost of the Hualu-Hengsheng did not reduce the pressure, just less pressure than peers. But this is not to enhance the role of Hualu-Hengsheng in coal prices background performance. In fact, the 3 quarter of last year only lignite prices have led to Hualu-Hengsheng urea business zero profit operation, in the price of urea under certain assumptions that subsequent coal prices continue to rise, is the only loss less than peers only for Hualu-Hengsheng significance. And acetic acid and DMF boom recovery and expansion of high-end products, the real performance contribution in 2012 is possible, and the short-term performance is not supported. However, the real meaning of the south, gold and other brokers deliberately avoided, the continued rise in costs, pressure has been unanimously forgotten, the limited price of urea and other products rebounded significantly. Fund ahead of holdings Securities firms collectively "avoid weaknesses" and ignore the obvious risk of abnormal behavior, what is the purpose? Because of rising stock prices did not rise Hualu-Hengsheng notice case process, billboard data can not detect the trend of clearing funds. However, from the Hualu-Hengsheng quarterly perspective, the third quarter and the fourth quarter of the previous two months, the fund holdings of positive attitude. Results show that the second quarter of last year, China dividends, China started new mixed income Hualu-Hengsheng top ten tradable shareholders list, holdings were 2 million 953 thousand and 700 shares and 3 million 738 thousand and 500 shares; life individual dividend -005L-FH002 Shanghai and 109 National Social Security Portfolio also 8 million 511 thousand and 900 new shares and 3 million 700 thousand shares. By the third quarter, the holdings of funds increased significantly. The lion value growth, China dividends are mixed, the optimal allocation of CCB were Zengcang 4 million 500 thousand shares and 2 million shares and 1 million shares; life - traditional general insurance products and ordinary life insurance products -005L-CT001 Shanghai 2 million 699 thousand and 800 new shares and 2 million 488 thousand and 400 shares. Among them, the lion value growth in the two quarter of the reduction of holdings to. December 6th, Hualu-Hengsheng private placement announced the list of shareholders, INVESCO emerging growth, China revenue, the Great Wall, South ingredient selection the Great Wall Jingshun selected blue chip holdings of 2 million 378 thousand and 900 shares, respectively 1 million 500 thousand shares, 1 million 909 thousand and 800 shares and 838 thousand and 900 shares; 109 combinations of social security holdings of 599 thousand and 900 shares. From the fund's holdings in time, Huaneng Power due to a substantial decline in performance and the share prices of the fund holdings, has been actively. It is worth noting that, this stage is also a brokerage research report stressed risk, see more cautious. In the end of the fund Masukura, to the South as the representative of the brokerage collective, suddenly to selectivity, expected to support the basis to see, and report time and price trend of a high degree of cooperation, its relevance may not be a coincidence. (.21.. Ji Ji. Ji Ji. Newspaper. Ray. Ray Lee. Ping.) Quote the use of props reports, reply TOP free registered members, enjoy more premium services! Fastisslow Class five sea breeze member UID Three hundred and seventy-four thousand nine hundred and forty-seven Post Three hundred and two Essence Zero integral One thousand and nineteen physical strength Sixty-five cash Seven thousand four hundred and seventy-eight Reading authority Seventy Online time 74 hours Registration time 2009-9-7 Personal space sends short messages to friends currently offline 3 floor, small and medium-sized published in 2011-3-27, 22:00 only to see the author Hualu-Hengsheng: growth from new competition from the advantages of integration Source: the Great Wall Securities Research Institute, release time: 2011, 03, 14, 14:48, the author: Wang Gang Company rating: recommended rating changes: maintain (initial) rating writing time: The day before we Hualu-Hengsheng conducted an investigation, and the certificate on behalf of the company on the company and the industry situation of the exchange. Hualu-Hengsheng ammonia alcohol currently has a capacity of 1 million 200 thousand tons, 1 million 500 thousand tons of urea, DMF25 million tons, 60 thousand tons trimethylamine acetic acid, 350 thousand tons, 30 thousand tons of acetic anhydride. The beginning of this year, Huaneng Power placement and self construction have been put into production, including 1 million tons of synthetic gas production capacity of 50 thousand tons of ethylene glycol, adipic acid, 160 thousand tons, 450 thousand tons of acetic acid. One of the competitive advantages of Hualu-Hengsheng: coal water slurry gasification technology companies already can get rid of dependence on the use of anthracite, bituminous coal (the old factory, a set of gas and electrical devices or to use anthracite), the company mainly to the purchase of 6000 kcal of Shenhua bituminous coal as raw material. A ton of ammonia alcohol capacity needs 1.25 tons of anthracite in the old device with anthracite, bituminous coal in the new position on the power consumption per ton of 1.45 tons of coal, with tons of bituminous coal can save the cost of 300 yuan. Two competitive advantages: the company Huaneng Power Polygeneration and material recycling technology can further reduce the cost. For example, the traditional one tons of synthetic ammonia to power 1400 degrees, but the use of power plant steam heating and driving device, power consumption is only 400 tons of synthetic ammonia, save 1000 kwh of electricity. Several major export products are facing overcapacity pressure, we believe that the inevitable trend of integration of the urea industry, small and medium urea enterprises due to cost pressures will eventually be eliminated. DMF holds about 30% of the market share in the country, and the raw material methanol is guaranteed, and the integration is relatively resistant to fluctuations in raw material prices. The acetic acid industry also needs to expand the industry chain forward or backward, so as to improve the competitiveness. At present, the industry situation is not very optimistic. Adipic acid under the protection of anti-dumping, the price soared, the industry is in the stage of profiteering. In this attracted all localities have expanded production, industry surplus is coming. Ethylene glycol, although the global capacity surplus, but the domestic demand is still in short supply, the production of ethylene glycol because of the cost advantages can be more optimistic. Low price glycols in the Middle East may have an impact on the country. We forecast 2010-2012, Hualu-Hengsheng earnings per share were 0.444, 0.727, 1.354 yuan, now price corresponding to 39 times, 24 times, 13 times earnings, we give the company recommended investment rating. Quote the use of props reports, reply TOP free registered members, enjoy more premium services! Fastisslow Class five sea breeze member UID Three hundred and seventy-four thousand nine hundred and forty-seven Post Three hundred and two Essence Zero integral One thousand and nineteen physical strength Sixty-five cash Seven thousand four hundred and seventy-eight Reading authority Seventy Online time 74 hours Registration time 2009-9-7 Personal space sends short messages to friends currently offline 4 floor, small and medium-sized published in 2011-3-27, 22:00 only to see the author South - Hualu-Hengsheng (600426) 10 annual review: in line with expectations, up 11 year profit forecast to 0.84 yuan 0318 Annual performance in line with expectations, the fourth quarter profit significantly restored. 10 years to achieve revenue 4 billion 740 million yuan, net profit of 254 million yuan, respectively, an increase of 19%, -40%; EPS0.51 yuan (corresponding to the issue of diluted EPS0.40 yuan), basically consistent with our previous forecast of 0.53 yuan. 10 quarter EPS0.22 yuan, compared with the three quarter EPS0.01 yuan significantly improved, the fourth quarter gross margin also rose to 16%, and basically restored to normal levels of history. The main reason for the upturn in the fourth quarter was the rise in the price of urea and the cost advantage of bituminous coal. Fourth quarter urea ex factory price of 1926 yuan / ton, a substantial increase of 16% over the three quarter; fourth quarter bituminous coal and smokeless coal prices expanded by about 20% in the three quarter; the cost advantage of the company's coal gasification has been strengthened. 11 years, the product price may exceed our expectations. At present the company product high boom: urea factory price is 1920 yuan / ton (10 year average price of 1746 yuan / ton), the price of acetic acid by Nanjing Serra nice East China 600 thousand tons of equipment maintenance rose to 3550 yuan / ton (10 year average price of 2949 yuan / ton), the East China DMF benefiting from lower prices stabilize demand exuberant to 6700 yuan (10 tons / year the average price of 5662 yuan / ton). We believe that the average product price in 11 years will be significantly higher than 10 years, the performance of a significant increase over the same period. Looking forward to the company's 11 years of ethylene glycol and adipic acid successfully put into production. The company plans to put into operation in May 50 thousand tons of ethylene glycol and put into production in September 160 thousand tons of adipic acid, ethylene glycol in China about 70% need to be imported, ctmeg cost advantages, in addition to adipic acid after the project is put into operation can greatly improve the performance of the company for 12 years. Up earnings forecasts, maintain overweight rating. We adjusted 11-12 EPS (diluted) for 0.84 yuan, 1.45 yuan (original forecast of 0.72 yuan, 1.36 yuan), the company's share price is 16.84 yuan, corresponding to 11-12 PE20 times and 12 times respectively; after the issuance of the company's net assets per share of 7.52 yuan, PB is only 2.2 times, significantly lower than that of the South chemical system goods plate 3.8 times PB, with sufficient margin of safety, to maintain overweight rating. (Analyst: Zhou Xiaobo / Lin Kai Sheng 8621 23297411/7303) Quote the use of props reports, reply TOP free registered members, enjoy more premium services! Fastisslow Class five sea breeze member UID Three hundred and seventy-four thousand nine hundred and forty-seven Post Three hundred and two Essence Zero integral One thousand and nineteen physical strength Sixty-five cash Seven thousand four hundred and seventy-eight Reading authority Seventy Online time 74 hours Registration time 2009-9-7 Personal space sends short messages to friends currently offline 5 floor, small and medium-sized published in 2011-3-27, 22:01 only to see the author Hualu-Hengsheng: slightly higher than expected future performance is expected to increase the valuation Source: CICC research department published: 2011 18 March 03 15:35 Author: Gao Zheng Guan bin; Company rating: recommended rating changes: maintain (initial) rating writing time: 2010 results were slightly higher than expected: Hualu-Hengsheng announced the 2010 annual report. The annual operating income of 4 billion 738 million yuan, an increase of 18.51%, total profit of 300 million yuan, down 40.27%, net profit of 254 million yuan, down 40.22%, or 0.51 yuan per share, slightly higher than we expected. The company plans to distribute 5 shares per 10 shares in 2010, and distribute cash dividend of 1 yuan (including tax). Positive: Acetic acid and DMF boom rebounded significantly: the company is currently acetic acid, DMF production and marketing brisk. BP acetic acid plant overhaul, lead to tight market supply, the company's acetic acid factory price was raised to 3400 yuan / ton. Demand for downstream slurry is brisk, DMF prices continue to rise, the factory price is about 6300 yuan / ton. It is expected that the contribution of acetic acid and DMF in 2011 will be significantly higher than that in 2010. In 2011, the company's 50 thousand tons of synthetic tail gas project for ethylene glycol, 160 thousand tons of adipic acid project completed, will become the company's new profit growth point. Negative: Affected by the rising prices of raw materials, the gross profit margin of the major products in 2010 fell significantly year on year. Developing trend: Gas, electricity and other costs will push up the marginal cost of the urea industry, the company has a strong cost advantage. At the same time, the company began to set foot in ethylene glycol, adipic acid and other industries, profitability and valuation is expected to double lifting. Earnings forecasts and investment advice: We maintain the company's 11~12 performance forecast for 0.80 yuan, 1.33 yuan, the current share price corresponding to PE, respectively, 21 times and 12.7 times. Maintain the "recommended" rating, the target price of 23 yuan. Risk: 1, coal chemical overcapacity is serious. 2, the central market valuation downlink.