关于金融危机的论文金融危机银行论文：金融动荡下针对中国银行危机和货币危机的前瞻性研究

关于金融危机的 论文 政研论文下载论文大学下载论文大学下载关于长拳的论文浙大论文封面下载 金融危机银行论文：金融动荡下针对中国银行危机和货币危机的前瞻性研究 关于金融危机的论文金融危机银行论文: 金融动荡下针对中国银行危机和货币危机的前瞻性研究 摘要:中国在当前金融危机中没有发生货币危机的迹象，但是如果不采用有效的控制风险的前瞻性 措施 《全国民用建筑工程设计技术措施》规划•建筑•景观全国民用建筑工程设计技术措施》规划•建筑•景观软件质量保证措施下载工地伤害及预防措施下载关于贯彻落实的具体措施 ，存在发生银行危机的可能性。 关键词:银行危机;货币危机;前瞻性研究 中国作为新兴国家的一员，在当前全球金融动荡下，主要将面对的是银行危机还是货币危机的研究，成为当务之急。本文主要围绕中国与新兴经济体曾经历两次金融危机的典型代 表 关于同志近三年现实表现材料材料类招标技术评分表图表与交易pdf视力表打印pdf用图表说话 pdf 国家韩国和中国与发达国家经济体中的典型代表国家美国两类的比较研究，来试图解决以上的问题。 (一)模型建立与实证 分析 定性数据统计分析pdf销售业绩分析模板建筑结构震害分析销售进度分析表京东商城竞争战略分析 历史上共发生了14次较大的金融危机，分析这些危机，可以归纳其主要特点为:(1)银行危机的持续时间要长于货币危机。银行危机持续时间平均为5.2年，货币危机则为2.4年。(2)银行危机分为危机潜伏期、危机爆发期和危机恢复期。依据历史上数次银行危机的分析，银行危机一般会在爆发后经历至少2年的经济下滑。(3)历史上银行危机多于货币危机。房地产和股票是爆发银行危机的主要原因，而汇率和外汇是诱发货币危机的主要原因。比较国际上历次银行危机和货币危机的起因和特点，采用量化比较模型即外汇市场压力指数和资本市场压力模型来进行实证研究。我们分3步来前瞻性地分析未来中国金融市场可能的危机状况。第一步，引用国际上通行的银行危机的主要变量:房地产和股票。选取1987年9月~2008年9月的中国ith. 3, fill embankment before base and completed the inspection and acceptance of works. 4, before the requirement level elevation sign layout according to the drawing, every nail on the level of a certain distance, elevation of forklift parts according to the design requirements set. 5, according to the site conditions determine the routes of earth-moving machinery, vehicles, and prior checks, reinforce and widen if necessary and other preparatory work. (B) construction processes and methods; 1, process: before filling, and statistics to the existing buildings and trees, the soil on the cave or on the surface of roots, trash and other debris to be cleared. 2, have the soil inspection work. Species of fill, size, check there is no debris, and soil moisture content control within the design range. Tier 3, fill casting: each layer thickness according to soil, density to determine requirements and equipment performance. 4, as needed when rolling, wheel (RAM) track lapping each other, prevent leaks RAM leakage. Aspect is high, filling segments. Each layer into slope-shaped seams, ground track about overlapping 0.5-1.0M, is less than the distance from the upper and lower joints 1M. 5, fill out the base surface, we will do the edge compaction quality assurance work. After the earth-moving, does not require trimming of the slope would be preferable to filling edge fill 0.5 m wide called slope rides on and shoot, wide filling 0.2m. 6, in machinery construction not rolling the filling position, manual blade filled with frog-type ramming machine or diesel hierarchical dynamic compaction-compacting. 9, rain during construction: (1) in the rain during embankment construction, we will be completed as soon as possible a continuous; face do not seek too large, hierarchical segment-by-film basis, important or special backfill, as completed by the rain. (2) in the rain at the time of construction, check all the rain 房地产价格指数和股市指数(市值)。并以美国为例，将中国的实证结果比较美国(发达国家代表也即银行危机代表)?1987年金融危机和2008年金融危机的实证结果。预测中国银行危机的相关性。第二步，引用国际上通行的货币危机的变量:汇率和外汇。选取1987年9月~2008年9月中国汇率和外汇数据进行实证分析，并比较韩国(新兴经济代表也即货币危机代表)1997年的亚洲金融危机和2008年金融危机的实证结果。预测中国货币危机的相关性。第三步，比较中国的货币和银行危机的实证结果，运用格兰特检验分析两者的相关性，研究当前最关注或最接近哪种危机。 1.指标选择 (1)外汇市场压力指数?。Eichengreen等(1995，1996)将汇率处于压力状态定义为当所构造的指数值超过一定临界值。这里的指数是由名义汇率、国际储备以及利率3个变量相对变化的加权和构成。Kaminsky等(1998)以及Kaminsky和Reinhart(1999)对货币危机的定义与E-ichengreen等人的非常类似，但在他们所构造的指数中不包括利率变化，因为在他们所研究的 样本 保单样本pdf木马病毒样本下载上虞风机样本下载直线导轨样本下载电脑病毒样本下载 国家中，利率受到了中央银行的严格控制。考虑到现代货币危机的本质，同时由于市场化的利率数据在许多新兴市场国家中都无法获得，我们认为采用Kaminsky和Reinhart的定义作为计算外汇市场压力的基准点是合理的。换言之，外汇市场压力(EMP)被定义为:EMP=%汇率it,std1it+%外汇储备it,std2it(1)这里std1it和std2it分别代表国家i在时间t时汇率百分比和外汇储备百分比变化的标准偏差。需要强调的是，由ith. 3, fill embankment before base and completed the inspection and acceptance of works. 4, before the requirement level elevation sign layout according to the drawing, every nail on the level of a certain distance, elevation of forklift parts according to the design requirements set. 5, according to the site conditions determine the routes of earth-moving machinery, vehicles, and prior checks, reinforce and widen if necessary and other preparatory work. (B) construction processes and methods; 1, process: before filling, and statistics to the existing buildings and trees, the soil on the cave or on the surface of roots, trash and other debris to be cleared. 2, have the soil inspection work. Species of fill, size, check there is no debris, and soil moisture content control within the design range. Tier 3, fill casting: each layer thickness according to soil, density to determine requirements and equipment performance. 4, as needed when rolling, wheel (RAM) track lapping each other, prevent leaks RAM leakage. Aspect is high, filling segments. Each layer into slope-shaped seams, ground track about overlapping 0.5-1.0M, is less than the distance from the upper and lower joints 1M. 5, fill out the base surface, we will do the edge compaction quality assurance work. After the earth-moving, does not require trimming of the slope would be preferable to filling edge fill 0.5 m wide called slope rides on and shoot, wide filling 0.2m. 6, in machinery construction not rolling the filling position, manual blade filled with frog-type ramming machine or diesel hierarchical dynamic compaction-compacting. 9, rain during construction: (1) in the rain during embankment construction, we will be completed as soon as possible a continuous; face do not seek too large, hierarchical segment-by-film basis, important or special backfill, as completed by the rain. (2) in the rain at the time of construction, check all the rain 于数据可获得性的原因，这里的标准偏差分别指一年中的月度汇率波动率与月度外汇储备波动率的标准差。这里假定与汇率压力相关的名义汇率的变化应当影响本币的购买力，换言之，名义汇率的变化应当导致实际汇率的变化(至少在短期)。这一条件排除了在高通货膨胀时期所发生的一些急剧贬值现象，但同时保留了在通货膨胀较为温和的时期所发生的大幅贬值。在确定是否发生危机时，一些研究者采用外生性的贬值临界值，另一些研究者则根据各国的不同情况来确定具体的贬值临界值。本文将汇率压力的大幅变动明确为所定义的外汇市场压力指数变化超过5%，同时超出均值1.5个标准差，这里的均值和标准差是根据各国的具体情况来设定的。 (2)资本市场压力指数。这里依据外汇市场压力指数的推导方法，可以计算出资本市场压力指数(CMP)(推导过程略)，即:CMP=%股市增长率it,std1it+%房地产价格指数增长率it,std2it(2)由于危机期间这两个数据一般取负数，所以这里我们将使用增长率的相反数进行计算。 2(实证分析 (1)货币危机———中韩对比。1997年，亚洲金融危机波及韩国，韩国爆发典型的货币危机。我们选取韩国1996年1月~1998年12月的汇率与外汇储备数据计算出外汇市场压力指数。自1997年1月~1998年12月，韩国外汇市场压力指数急剧变化，变化率都高于25%，超过了5%的判定水平。同时，1997年12月的EMP值(5.03)ith. 3, fill embankment before base and completed the inspection and acceptance of works. 4, before the requirement level elevation sign layout according to the drawing, every nail on the level of a certain distance, elevation of forklift parts according to the design requirements set. 5, according to the site conditions determine the routes of earth-moving machinery, vehicles, and prior checks, reinforce and widen if necessary and other preparatory work. (B) construction processes and methods; 1, process: before filling, and statistics to the existing buildings and trees, the soil on the cave or on the surface of roots, trash and other debris to be cleared. 2, have the soil inspection work. Species of fill, size, check there is no debris, and soil moisture content control within the design range. Tier 3, fill casting: each layer thickness according to soil, density to determine requirements and equipment performance. 4, as needed when rolling, wheel (RAM) track lapping each other, prevent leaks RAM leakage. Aspect is high, filling segments. Each layer into slope-shaped seams, ground track about overlapping 0.5-1.0M, is less than the distance from the upper and lower joints 1M. 5, fill out the base surface, we will do the edge compaction quality assurance work. After the earth-moving, does not require trimming of the slope would be preferable to filling edge fill 0.5 m wide called slope rides on and shoot, wide filling 0.2m. 6, in machinery construction not rolling the filling position, manual blade filled with frog-type ramming machine or diesel hierarchical dynamic compaction-compacting. 9, rain during construction: (1) in the rain during embankment construction, we will be completed as soon as possible a continuous; face do not seek too large, hierarchical segment-by-film basis, important or special backfill, as completed by the rain. (2) in the rain at the time of construction, check all the rain 超过了标准差的1.5倍(2.73)，可以判定为出现了货币危机。这与实际相符，可以看出，这段时间中国的EMP值都在0以下，表明中国外汇市场压力很小，没有理由判定中国出现了货币危机。而韩国EMP在2008年9月份达到7.9，远远大于准差的1.5倍(2.7)，可以判定韩国进入了货币危机。这与实际相符。 (2)银行危机———中美对比。从中可以看出，从1987年7月开始压力指数迅速上升，到10月份达到峰值6.22。这个数值远远超过其标准差1.5倍(2.7)。显示美国在这个时候发生了银行危机。而历史事实也符合这个结果。中国和美国2006年10月~2008年9月的资本市场压力指数结果。中国的资本市场压力指数自2008年1月开始上扬，于2008年6月超过标准差的1.5倍(2.21)，并在8月份再次超过了这一数值，达到3.21。根据前面的分析，中国可能正进入一次银行危机中。而美国资本市场压力指数在2008年4月之后出现大幅上升，在6月份达到6.41的高点，也超过了一年中标准差的1.5倍(3.18)。事实上美国此次金融危机就是典型的银行危机。 (3)检验分析。前面的初步检验结果支持中国进入了金融危机，且为银行危机，为了进一步检验这一结果，我们引入虚拟变量，建立如下方程:T=β0+β1EMP+β2CMP+εH0:β1=0，β2=0其中T为虚拟变量，金融危机时(即2008年6、7、8、9月)取值为1，其他时候为0。选取从2006年1月~2008年9月的相关数据进行回归分析。如果此次危机存在，则方程为显著的，并拒绝零假设:β1=0，β2=0。而如果β2的绝对值大于β1的绝对值,则表明中国更倾向于ith. 3, fill embankment before base and completed the inspection and acceptance of works. 4, before the requirement level elevation sign layout according to the drawing, every nail on the level of a certain distance, elevation of forklift parts according to the design requirements set. 5, according to the site conditions determine the routes of earth-moving machinery, vehicles, and prior checks, reinforce and widen if necessary and other preparatory work. (B) construction processes and methods; 1, process: before filling, and statistics to the existing buildings and trees, the soil on the cave or on the surface of roots, trash and other debris to be cleared. 2, have the soil inspection work. Species of fill, size, check there is no debris, and soil moisture content control within the design range. Tier 3, fill casting: each layer thickness according to soil, density to determine requirements and equipment performance. 4, as needed when rolling, wheel (RAM) track lapping each other, prevent leaks RAM leakage. Aspect is high, filling segments. Each layer into slope-shaped seams, ground track about overlapping 0.5-1.0M, is less than the distance from the upper and lower joints 1M. 5, fill out the base surface, we will do the edge compaction quality assurance work. After the earth-moving, does not require trimming of the slope would be preferable to filling edge fill 0.5 m wide called slope rides on and shoot, wide filling 0.2m. 6, in machinery construction not rolling the filling position, manual blade filled with frog-type ramming machine or diesel hierarchical dynamic compaction-compacting. 9, rain during construction: (1) in the rain during embankment construction, we will be completed as soon as possible a continuous; face do not seek too large, hierarchical segment-by-film basis, important or special backfill, as completed by the rain. (2) in the rain at the time of construction, check all the rain 发生银行危机。检验步骤如下。 第一，由于EMP和CMP都是时间序列数据，有可能存在非平稳性问题，导致简单的最小二乘回归可能产生伪回归，从而有必要对其进行单位根检验。可知变量EMP和CMP都是一阶单整的，应该对其一阶差分后进行协整检验。 第二，协整检验。运用Eviews对变量进行协整。在1%显著性水平下拒绝r=0，接受r?1，表明有99%的把握相信变量间存在一个协整关系，协整方程为:DT=1.286492-3.336084DEMP-6.894473DCMP (11.2025)(23.6577)对数似然比:-87.93343上式符合我们之前的假设。即资本市场压力指数(绝对值6.89)对中国金融市场的影响要大于外汇市场压力指数(绝对值3.34)的影响，证明现阶段中国更加倾向于发生银行危机而不是货币危机。 第三，由于外汇市场和资本市场往往存在着联系，有必要对这两个变量进行格兰杰因果关系检验。在5%显著性水平下没有拒绝原假设，即EMP和CMP之间没有因果关系。这可能是由于中国还没有完全开放资本项目下的可自由兑换，从而外国资本不是很容易进入中国市场进行投机。可以说这种阻碍在某种程度上切断了中国这两个市场上的联系，这也是为什么亚洲金融危机时中国独善其身的原因。 (二)结论 1.此次全球金融危机中中国没有发生货币危机的迹象，但是存在发生银行危机的可能。 ith. 3, fill embankment before base and completed the inspection and acceptance of works. 4, before the requirement level elevation sign layout according to the drawing, every nail on the level of a certain distance, elevation of forklift parts according to the design requirements set. 5, according to the site conditions determine the routes of earth-moving machinery, vehicles, and prior checks, reinforce and widen if necessary and other preparatory work. (B) construction processes and methods; 1, process: before filling, and statistics to the existing buildings and trees, the soil on the cave or on the surface of roots, trash and other debris to be cleared. 2, have the soil inspection work. Species of fill, size, check there is no debris, and soil moisture content control within the design range. Tier 3, fill casting: each layer thickness according to soil, density to determine requirements and equipment performance. 4, as needed when rolling, wheel (RAM) track lapping each other, prevent leaks RAM leakage. Aspect is high, filling segments. Each layer into slope-shaped seams, ground track about overlapping 0.5-1.0M, is less than the distance from the upper and lower joints 1M. 5, fill out the base surface, we will do the edge compaction quality assurance work. After the earth-moving, does not require trimming of the slope would be preferable to filling edge fill 0.5 m wide called slope rides on and shoot, wide filling 0.2m. 6, in machinery construction not rolling the filling position, manual blade filled with frog-type ramming machine or diesel hierarchical dynamic compaction-compacting. 9, rain during construction: (1) in the rain during embankment construction, we will be completed as soon as possible a continuous; face do not seek too large, hierarchical segment-by-film basis, important or special backfill, as completed by the rain. (2) in the rain at the time of construction, check all the rain 2.协整检验显示，中国资本市场压力指数对中国金融市场的影响大于外汇市场压力指数，表明中国近期更倾向于发生银行危机。 3.中国资本市场压力指数和外汇市场压力指数都是非稳定的时间序列，其一阶差分变得稳定。二者之间不存在因果关系，可能源于中国资本项下的不可自由兑换。 (三)对策建议 当前根据我国与其他发展中国家的特质不同，应该以防范银行危机为主，阻断国际金融市场动荡的传导链条。增强危机意识，防止经济大起大落。现在宏观调控已进入到当前阶段，务必应当强化对经济中新情况的监测，保持政策操作的适时适度和充分的灵活性。建立具备高效率的金融监管体系，防止国外资本的过大过快地流出和流入。建立一套完整、全面、有效规范金融机构金融创新的措施，尤其资产证券化和衍生性金融商品部分。(作者单位:武汉大学经济与管理学院)注释?韩国1997和2008年的金融危机都表现为韩元的巨幅贬值。?参照刘莉亚，2006。?由于数据缺乏，这里是1年12月的样本，略少于20个样本数。 参考文献 (1)刘莉亚:《新兴市场国家中货币危机与债务危机联动影响的实证研究》，上海财经大学金融学院，2006年。 ith. 3, fill embankment before base and completed the inspection and acceptance of works. 4, before the requirement level elevation sign layout according to the drawing, every nail on the level of a certain distance, elevation of forklift parts according to the design requirements set. 5, according to the site conditions determine the routes of earth-moving machinery, vehicles, and prior checks, reinforce and widen if necessary and other preparatory work. (B) construction processes and methods; 1, process: before filling, and statistics to the existing buildings and trees, the soil on the cave or on the surface of roots, trash and other debris to be cleared. 2, have the soil inspection work. Species of fill, size, check there is no debris, and soil moisture content control within the design range. Tier 3, fill casting: each layer thickness according to soil, density to determine requirements and equipment performance. 4, as needed when rolling, wheel (RAM) track lapping each other, prevent leaks RAM leakage. Aspect is high, filling segments. Each layer into slope-shaped seams, ground track about overlapping 0.5-1.0M, is less than the distance from the upper and lower joints 1M. 5, fill out the base surface, we will do the edge compaction quality assurance work. After the earth-moving, does not require trimming of the slope would be preferable to filling edge fill 0.5 m wide called slope rides on and shoot, wide filling 0.2m. 6, in machinery construction not rolling the filling position, manual blade filled with frog-type ramming machine or diesel hierarchical dynamic compaction-compacting. 9, rain during construction: (1) in the rain during embankment construction, we will be completed as soon as possible a continuous; face do not seek too large, hierarchical segment-by-film basis, important or special backfill, as completed by the rain. (2) in the rain at the time of construction, check all the rain