The Coming of Post-Industrial Society

PraiseforTheComingofPost-IndustrialSociety“Itisrareinsocialsciencetofindastudythatfundamentallychangesourperceptionofthewaytheworldworks.DanielBell’sTheComingofPost-IndustrialSocietyaccomplishedsuchafeat.Firstpublishedin1973,itwasaninstantclassic.Bell’shighlyinformativeandengagingnewintroductionmakesthispowerfulworkevenmorecompelling.”—WilliamFuliusWilsonLewisP.andLindaL.GeyserUniversityProfessor,HarvardUniversity(1999)“Aquartercenturyago,DanBellwasprescientwhenhepublishedhisclassiconpost-industrialsociety.Withthisbrilliantnewforewordheremainsaheadinlinkinghispastinsightstothenewinformationage.”—FosephS.Nye,Fr.DeanoftheKennedySchoolofGovernment,HarvardUniversity(1999)“DanielBellintroducedtheconceptofpost-industrialtechnologyinthefirsteditionofthiswork,andithasnowbecomeuniversal.Hisadditionalessaybringstogetherinashortcompassbothasharpcharacterizationofthespecialfeaturesofthenewtechnologywhichhasdevelopedsomuchintheinterim,yetalonglineshealreadyforesaw,anddeeplyinsightfulcommentsonthesocialeffectsthatitpermitsbutdoesnotdetermine.”—KennethF.ArrowJoanKennedyProfessorofEconomicsEmeritus,StanfordUniversity;Nobe]LaureateinEconomics(1999)“Oneofthegreatseminalworksofthelasthalfcenturyandalsoportendingthechangesinthenexthalfcentury.”—ManuelCastells(1999)“Abookthatcouldaffectthinkingforyearstocome....ItisabooktobereadbyallAmericanswhowanttoknowwhattheyear2000hasinstoreforus.”—ArnoldBekhmtmChristianScienceMonitor(1973)“Bellelaborates...withlearningandingenuity.Evenmoreadmirably,heisfreeofslushyromanticismaboutthefuture.”—MaronF.Levy,Fr.Fortune(1973)THECOMINGOFPOST-INDUSTRIALSOCIETYTHECOMINGOFPOST-INDUSTRIALSOCIETYAVentureinSocialForecastingDANIELBELLAMemberofthePerseusBooksGroupCopyright©1973byDanielBellForeword©1976byDanielBellForeword1999©1999byDanielBellPublishedbyBasicBooks,AMemberofthePerseusBooksGroupAllrightsreserved.PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanymannerwhatsoeverwithoutwrittenpermissionexceptinthecaseofbriefquotationsembodiedincriticalarticlesandreviews.Forinformation,addressBasicBooks,10East53rdStreet,NewYork,NY10022-5299.LibraryofCongressCatalogCardNumber:72-89178ISBN0-465-01281-7cloth0-465-09713-8pbk.DESIGNEDBYVINCENTTORRE0001022019181716FORJordyBellJacobyANDStephenJacobyCONTENTSTheAxialAgeofTechnologyForeword:1999Foreword:1976PrefaceIntroductionCHAPTER1FromIndustrialtoPost-IndustrialSociety:TheoriesofSocialDevelopmentCHAPTER2FromGoodstoServices:TheChangingShapeoftheEconomyCHAPTER3TheDimensionsofKnowledgeandTechnology:TheNewClassStructureofPost-IndustrialSocietyCHAPTER4TheSubordinationoftheCorporation:TheTensionbetweentheEconomizingandSociologizingModesCHAPTER5SocialChoiceandSocialPlanning:ThedequacyofOurConceptsandToolsCHAPTER6“WhoWillRule?”PoliticiansandTechnocratsinthePost-IndustrialSocietyCODAAnAgendafortheFuture1.HowSocialSystemsChange2.TheFutureofScience3.MeritocracyandEquality4.TheEndofScarcity?5.CultureandConsciousnessNameIndexSubjectIndexTHEAXIALAGEOFTECHNOLOGYFOREWORD:1999TheComingofPost-IndustrialSocietywasfirstpublishedin1973andre-issuedwithanexpandedforewordin1976.Sincethen,theterm,thephrase,theidea,theconceptofpost-industrialsocietyhaspassedintocommoncurrencyandtheacademiclexicon.AsearchintheNexisdatabasefromAugust6,1997toAugust8,1998,reveals104citationsinarticlesandspeechesbymanydifferentpersons.Inthetwo-yearperiodbeginningin1996,therewere191instances.Therangeisrevealing,sometimesamusing,andsometimesastounding.SirLeonBrittan,Vice-PresidentoftheEuropeanCommission,speakinginTokyoinSeptember1997,remarked,“Wearemanagingadifficulttransitiontobecomingpost-industrialsocietieswithagingpopulations.”WilliamJuliusWilson,theHarvardsociologist,writinginJanuary1998onthereasonsbehindinner-citydislocations,pointedtothe“post-industrialsociety”occupationalpositionsthatrequirehigherlevelsofeducation.TheUnabomber,themanresponsibleforthedeathormaimingofmorethanadozenpersonsoveradozen-yearperiod,inJanuary1998offeredtoendhiswar“ifanationalnewspaperpublishedhis35,000-wordmanifestocriticizingthecorruptanddehumanizinginfluencesofpost-industrial[i.e.,technological]society.”WhentheNewYorkTimesandWashingtonPostjointlypublishedthemanuscript,DavidKaczynski,thebrotheroftheUnabomber,recognizedthestyleandwordsandinformedtheauthoritiesofhisidentity.Whatisstrikingisthehigh-levelandoften-minatoryuseofthephrasebyworldleaders.Celebratingthe650thanniversaryofPragueUniversityinApril1998,PresidentVáclavHavelremarked:“Universityresearchmustnotbedrivensolely...bydiedemandsofthemarketeconomy;post-industrialsocietydemandsthatuniversitiesrecalltheiroriginalconceptof‘generallearning.’”InJune1998,speakingoftheflawsinAsiansocieties,MargaretThatcherlaidpartoftheblameon“thefailuretodevelopthepoliticalframeworkandskillsneededinadvancedindustrialandpost-industrialsocieties.”EventhePresidentoftheUnitedStatesusesthetermpost-industrial.Inaround-tablediscussioninShanghai(June30,1998),“ShapingChinaforthe21stCentury,”PresidentClintonremarked:“InyoureconomicgrowthyouwillalmostleapoveragenerationofeconomicexperiencesthatolderEuropeancountriesandtheUnitedStatesexperienced[so]youwillessentiallybecreatinganindustrializedandapost-industrialsocietyatthesametime.Andtherefore,morequicklyyouwillhavetoeducatemorepeopleathigherlevelsthanwedid.”WhenIaskedtheNationalSecurityCouncilwhohadwrittenMr.Clinton’stalk,Iwastoldthatthatparticularresponsetotheissueswasextempore.YetitisalsoevidentthatPresidentClinton’sremarksgrewoutofthecontextofpreviousWhiteHousebriefingsduringwhichtheproblemhadbeenraisedseveraltimes.InMay1998,thetranscriptofaWhiteHousebriefingbyMikeMcCurry,thePressOfficer,andStrobeTalbott,theDeputySecretaryofState,statedthatthediscussiondealtwiththe“substantivechallenges...ofthepostColdWarerainapost-industrialsociety.”AndinadiscussionbetweenPresidentClintonandBritishPrimeMinisterTonyBlairatthePrimeMinister’sretreatatChequersinMay,thesamethemewasaddressed.MichaelCurryrestatedthisthemeinapressbriefinginBirmingham,England,aboutthemeetingofthetwoleadersandtheiraides.WhatisclearfromallthisisthattheleadersoftheWesternnationsconsidertheirsocietiestobe“post-industrial”andthattheproblemfacingtherestoftheworldishowtomakethetransitiontothepost-industrialstate.Thoughthephrase“post-industrialsociety”isnowusedwidely,thereisoftenlittlespecificityastowhatitconnotes.Forexample,theLondonEconomist(August22,1998)initsstory“Post-IndustrialGlasgow”writes:TheunpreparedvisitortoGlasgowlooksinvainforteemingtenementsblackenedstillbygrimeandsoot,andsearchesanemptyskylineforthethicketofcranesthatrimmeddiecacophonousshipyards....ThatGlasgowhasgone—alongwithmostoftheship-buildingandsteelmakingthatoncemadethecityrich....ButfromthecitycentreGlasgowlooksandfeelslikeasuccessfulpost-industrialcentrefortourism,servicesandshopping.Suchadescriptionunderstandablyconcentratesonthedeclineofindustryandmanufacturingandthesupplantingbyservices.Butitmissestheextraordinaryrangeofchangesthatrunthroughthesocialstructureoftheemergingpost-industrialworld,onethatdoesnotwhollydisplacetheagrarianandindustrialworlds(thoughittransformstheminessentialways)butrepresentsnewprinciplesofinnovation,newmodesofsocialorganization,andnewclassesinsociety.Thepost-industrialsociety,asaconceptandasareality,ariseswithintheframeofsocio-economichistory,thecontextsofthepre-industrial,industrial,andpost-industrialworlds.1Inthefirstfifty-fiveofthepastfifty-sevencenturies,asPaulKrugmanhaspointedout,mostoftheworld’spopulationlivedlargelyassubsistenceeconomiesbasedonextractiveindustries—farming,mining,fishing,timber.ForthatlargeperiodT.R.Malthuswasright;populationincreasewassubjecttothechecksofdisease,exhaustionofsoils,anddiminishingnaturalresources.Migrationsandmaraudingwarswerethecommonlotofpeoples.ButMalthuswrotein1800,andtheworldhaschangedradicallysincethen.Thecreationofasourceofenergyunknowntopreviouscenturiesanditsmethodicalusewithinanenclosedcontainertransformedthelandscape.Steampumpscouldnowdrawwateroutofthecoalminesandallowminerstodigdeeperandbringupmorecoal.England,asanislandbeddedoncoalintheMidlands,beganthedevelopmentofsteam-poweredloomsforthemanufactureoftextiles.Factoriesaroseastheindustryexpanded.Steam-poweredshafts,fromfireboxesofcoal,droverailroadsandsteamships,andradicalnewmodesoftransportationwerecreated.Peopleforthefirsttimecouldtravelonlandfasterthananyanimal,andonwaterfasterthanwind.Withtheincreaseintheunderstandingofsanitation,withcleanwaterandmedicaladvances—atleastintheWesternworld—diseasesnolongerhaddevastatingeffects.Populationincreasesmeantnewfactorsofproductionandnewsourcesofdemand.Withthedevelopmentofmodernchemistry,bythemanipulationofthepropertiesofmacromolecules,humansforthefirstrimecouldmakegoods,suchasplastics,notfoundinnature.Anewunderstandingofeconomicshadalsoappeared,thedivisionoflaborandtheprincipleofproductivity,theabilitytogainagreateroutputofgoodswithasimilarorlesserinputoflabor.Inshort,andforthefirsttime,economicsurplusescouldarisewithoutexploitation—unlessthedivisionoflaborwascarriedtotoogreatanextreme.Inprevioustimes,wealthwasgainedbywar,plunder,slavery,tax-farming,andthelike,abrutalzero-sumgame.Nowforthefirstrime,productivitycouldbeincreased,generatingincreasesinincomesandwealththatinturncouldcreateeconomicsurpluseswithoutimpoverishingtheworkingclass.This,atleast,wasthepromiseofeconomicliberalism.Ifonereflectsonthisachievement,itisclearthattheso-calledindustrialrevolution(atermcoinedahundredyearsafterdiefact,in1886,whenArnoldToynbeeSr.,theuncleofthefamoushistorian,gavehisOxfordlectures)wasduetoanewunderstandingoftechnologyandtheorganizationofproduction.Technologywasmorethanmakingthingsinareproduciblemanner.Itwasarationalorderingofmeans-endsrelations,arationalizationofworkandevenofsectorsoflife.Technologyis,initsprocedures,instrumental,andinitsdesign,aesthetic,aconceptionfosteredbythefamousBauhausoftheWeimarRepublic.ThisaestheticisdemonstratedintheworkofthearchitectsWalterGropiusandErichMendelssohn,theartistLázlóMoholy-Nagy,andthepaintersPaulKleeandLyonelFeininger.Tothatextent,onecansaythattheprevioustwohundredyearshadbeenthe“axialage”oftechnology.The“axialage”wasatermusedbytheGermanphilosopherKarlJasperstocharacterizetheperiodaround500B.C.,ormorebroadlyfromthesixthcenturybeforeChristtothesecondcenturybeforeChrist,whichsawthebreakthroughofreligionandtranscendence.ThiswastheextraordinaryperiodofZarathushtrainPersia,theGautamaBuddhainIndia,ConfuciusinChina,theprophetsinIsrael(Jeremiah,Isaiah,andEzekiel),theEleaticphilosophersinGreece(Thales,Anaxi-mander,Pythagoras).Thereisamysterytothissimultaneity,anddievariousexplanationscannotbediscussedhere.Butwhatisevidentisthatonehashereaworldaxisonwhichhistoryturned.Isittoomuchtosaythatthepasttwohundredyearshaveseenanewaxialperiod,a“breakthrough”inhumanpowersthatisthebasisforthetransformationofnatureandofthematerialworld?2Thefoundationsofindustrialsocietywerelaidbytheharnessingofenergy(steam,electricity,oilandgas)todrivemachinesandturbines;theverticalintegrationofthecorporation,asintheshapingbyWalterTeagleoftheStandardOilCompany,whichcontrolledeverythingfromtheoilinthetarsandstotherefiningtothesaleofthegasoline;andtheintroductionofmassproductionbyHenryFord.Buthowdoesoneexplainthecomingofpost-industrialsociety?ThefirstexplanationwasgivenbytheAustralianeconomistColinClarkinhispathbreakingConditionsofEconomicProgress(1940),wherehedividedtheeconomyintosectors:primary(extractive),secondary(manufacturing),andtertiary(services).Theprogressofaneconomywasmeasuredbythedegreeofproductivity(outputpercapita)ineachsector.Asproductivityroseineachsector(i.e.,fewerpersonswereneededtoachieveparticularlevelsofoutput),laborcouldbetransferredfromonesectortoanother.Economicprogress,thus,wasdefinedasafunctionofthedifferentialproductivityamongthesectors.Serviceswasaresidualcategory,thekindofadditionalbenefits,sotospeak,thatasocietycouldnowafford.Manypersons,inwritingaboutapost-industrialsociety,stilldefineitprimarilywithrespecttoservices.Butthatdefinitionisinadequate.Clark’sviewofserviceswasnarrowly“economistic.”Morethanthat,itderivedfromthethinkingoftheclassicaleconomists,andMarx,thatserviceswere“unproductive.”Inthatview,onlymanufacturingproducedvalue,bylabor.Butmomentaryreflectionwouldshowthatthisviewiswrong.Themajorexpansionofservicesincontemporarysocietyis“humanservices,”primarilyhealthandeducation.Andbotharethechiefmeanstodayofincreasingproductivityinasociety:educationbyadvancingtheacquisitionofskills,particularlyliteracyandnumeracy;healthbyreducingillnessandmakingindividualsmorefitforwork.Thisiswhy,inwritingaboutservices,Ihavebrokenthisareaintoafurtherdistinction(afterthepre-industrial“primary”andtheindustrial“secondary”)oftertiary(transportationandutilities),quaternary(tradeandfinance),andquinary(health,education,etc.).Butforme,thenovelandcentralfeatureofpost-industrialsocietyisthecodificationoftheoreticalknowledgeandthenewrelationofsciencetotechnology.Everysocietyhasexistedonthebasisofknowledgeandtheroleoflanguageinthetransmissionofknowledge.Butonlyinthetwentiethcenturyhaveweseenthecodificationoftheoreticalknowledgeandthedevelopmentofself-consciousresearchprogramsindieunfoldingofnewknowledge.Oneseesthischangeinthenewrelationofsciencetotechnology.Almostalltheindustriesofthenineteenthcentury—steel,electricity,telephone,automobile,aviation,thewireless—werecreatedbytalentedtinkerers(aBessemer,aThomasAlvaEdison,AlexanderGrahamBell,theWrightbrothers,Marconi)whowereindifferenttoorworkedindependentlyofthedevelopmentsinscience.Butdiemajordevelopmentsofthetwentiethcentury—intelecommunication,computers,semi-conductorsandtransistors,materialsscience,optics,biotechnology—derivefromtherevolutionsintwentieth-centuryphysicsandbiology:fromEinstein’sworkinquantumtheoryandoptics,whichexplaineddiephotoelectriceffectandledtothedevelopmentoflasers,tothediscoveryofdiedouble-helixstructureofDNAandthegenomeprojectondecodingthechromosomestructureofthebody’scells.Researchanddevelopmentarethehandmaidensofinventionandinnovation,andtheseareintegraltothedevelopmentsinscience.Nosociety,ofcourse,everemergesfull-blown,likeMinervaoutoftheheadofJove,butdifferentfacetsemergeatdifferenttimes,oftenoutofinteractionwitholdermodes.Itmightbeuseful,therefore,toindicatehere,evenifschematically,someoftherangeandextentofpost-industrialdevelopmentsinthepasttwenty-fiveyears,andtodosobycontrasttofeaturesofindustrialsociety.31.Frommanufacturingtoservices:Todayonly18.8millionAmericans,inaworkforceof126million,workinmanufacturingasagainst20.2millioninaworkforceof77milliontwenty-fiveyearsago.Thus,nearly15percentofthelaborforceisnowinmanufacturingasagainst26percenttwenty-fiveyearsago.Oneneedstopointout,too,thechangeinthecharacterofmanufacturing,namelythedeclineofsmoke-stackindustriesandtheriseoftheantiseptic,sterile-roomproductionofcomputerchipsanddrugs.Inmanyways,thetwomodescomplementeachother.ThustheFordMotorCompanyisdevelopingtheuseofanadvancedneuralnetworkprogramusingchipsdesignedbyNASA’sJetPropulsionLaboratorytomonitoritsenginesforanytroubles.Inthegross-domestic-productaccounts,inaseven-trillion-dollareconomy,manufacturingaccountsforabout17percentandservices50percentofthenationalproduct.2.Occupationalchanges:Themoststrikingchangeinthecharacterofworkistheextraordinaryriseofprofessionalandtechnicalemploymentandtherelativedeclineofskilledandsemi-skilledworkers.Oftheworkforceof126millionin1996,36.5millionpersonswereprofessionalsandmanagers;almosthalfwereclassifiedasmanagers;and37.6millionpersonswereinthetechnicians,sales,andadministrative-supportcategory.Inalltheseweremorethan74millionpersons,ornearly60percentofthelaborforce.Asagainstthat,T3.5millionpersonswereclassedasskilledworkers(precisionproductionandcraft)and18.1millionasoperatorsandlaborers,atotalof31.6million,or25percentofthelaborforce.43.Propertyandeducation:Thetraditionalmodeofgainingplaceandprivilegeinthesocietywasthroughinheritance—ofafamilyfarm,afamilybusiness,orafamilyoccupation,and,inalesserway,throughstartingabusinessorentrepreneurship.Todayeducationhasbecomethebasisofsocialmobility,especiallywiththeexpansionofprofessionalandtechnicaljobs,andevenentrepreneurshiprequiresahigher-educationbackground.In1960,only41percentofallpersonshadcompletedfouryearsofhighschool(andonly20percentofblacks).In1996,81percentofthepopulationhadcompletedhighschool(and74percentofblacks).Thechangeincollegeeducationisevenmorestriking.In1960only7.7percentofthepopulationhadcompletedcollege(and3.1percentofblacks).In1996,almost24percentofthepopulationhadcompletedcollege,and13.6percentofblacks(table243,theStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates).4.Financialcapitalandhumancapital:Adifferentwayofhighlightingthechangeistounderstandthenatureofcapitalasaresource.Ineconomictheory,untilonlythepastthirtyorsoyears,capitalwasregardedprincipallyasfinancialcapitalamassedasmoneyorland.DuetothepioneeringworkofTheodoreSchultzandGaryBeckerattheUniversityofChicago,humancapitalisnow-regardedasanessentialfeatureinunderstandingthestrengthofasociety,andintherecentgrowththeoryofPaulRomer,bothhumancapitalandtechnologyareintegratedintoanendogamousfeatureofgrowth.Morerecently,theconceptofsocialcapitalwasadvancedbythelateJamesColemanoftheUniversityofChicagoandRobertPutnamofHarvard.Onegainssocialcapitaltotheextentthatonehasaccesstoopportunitiesandsocialnetworks;socialcapitalrepresentsthereduction,sotospeak,ofthe“sixdegreesofseparation”betweenpersons.AsColemanandPutnampointedout,minoritygroupsoftenlacksocialcapitalandthusaremoreeasilyexcludedfromopportunitiesorknowledgeaboutthem.5.Technologyandintellectualtechnology:Formostpersons,technologymeansmachines;thisunderstandingisreasonablegiventhefoundationofmechanicaltechnologyforindustrialsociety.Butwiththespreadofcomputer-aideddesigninmanufacture,aswellasthemergingofcommunicationssystems,whatcomestotheforeis“intellectualtechnology”(basedonmathematicsandlinguistics),whichusesalgorithms(decisionrules),programming(software),modelsandsimulations,intherunningofthenew“hightechnology.”6.Infrastructure:Theinfrastructureofindustrialsocietywastransportation—ports,railroads,highways,trucks,airports—whichmadetheexchangeofgoodsandmaterialspossible.Theinfrastructureofpost-industrialsocietyiscommunication:cable,broadband,digitalTV,opticalfibernetworks,fax,e-mail,ISDN(integratedsystemdigitalnetworks,combiningdata,text,voice,sound,andimagethroughasinglechannel).AndnowwehavetheInternetandtheWorldWideWeb,whichinlessthanfiveyearshavegrownatarateunprecedentedinthehistoryofcommunication.Allthesetechnologiesformacomplexadaptivesystemthatisthefoundationoftheelectronicallymediatedglobaleconomy.7.Aknowledgetheoryofvalue:Anindustrialsociety,fromRicardotoMarx,isbasedonalabortheoryofvalue,andthedevelopmentofindustryproceedsbylabor-savingdevices,substitutingcapitalforlabor.Apost-industrialsocietyrestsonaknowledgetheoryofvalue.Knowledgeisthesourceofinventionandinnovation.Itcreatesvalue-addedandincreasingreturnstoscaleandisoftencapital-savinginthatthenextsubstitution(e.g.,fiberopticsforcopperincommunicationscables)useslesscapitalandproducesamorethanproportionalgaininoutput.Knowledgeisacollectivegood(inparticularbasicresearch),andonecanraisethequestionofwhethera“socialrent”isduetotheclassofscientistswhocreatetheknowledge.Sowhatisnewaboutthepost-industrialeconomy?WritesBradfordDeLong,Whatisnewisthatforthefirsttimesincetheinventionofprinting,informationprocessinganddistributionhasbecomeoneoftheleadingsectors.Previousleadingsectorschangedtheconditionsofthelivesofweavers,spinners,transporters,farmers,blacksmiths,andsoon.Ourleadingsectorsarechangingtheconditionsoflifeofthosewhouseinformationtodirectenterprises&m