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Haynesville Shale Well Performa…

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简介:本文档为《Haynesville Shale Well Performance and Development Potential fulltextpdf》,可适用于工程科技领域

HaynesvilleShaleWellPerformanceandDevelopmentPotentialMarkJKaiser,andYunkeYuReceivedJuneacceptedAugustPublishedonline:SeptemberLouisiana�sHaynesvilleShaleisoneofseveralunconventionalgasplaysthathavebeendiscoveredintheUSinrecentyearsandpromisetodramaticallychangethecourseoffuturedomesticenergydevelopmentTheHaynesvilleShaleisthedeepest,hottest,andhighestpressuredshaleamongthebigfourplaysintheUSwithdrillingandcompletioncostrangingbetween$and$millionperwellTheaverageHaynesvillewellhasaninitialproductionrateofMMcfdanddeclinesrapidly,producingofitsexpectedrecoveryduringthefirstyearsofproductionThepurposeofthisarticleistodescribetheproductivitycharacteristicsofHaynesvillewells,projectfutureproductionfromtheinventoryofactivewells,andassessproductionpotentialbasedondrillingscenariosWeofferstatisticalanalysisofthewellsdrilledtodateandconstructtypeprofilestocharacterizetheplayWeestimatethatthecurrentinventoryofHaynesvillewellswillproduceTcfovertheirlifecycles,andwithinthenextyears,cumulativebuildoutintheregionwillrangebetweenandTcfTomaintaincurrentgasproductionlevelsinthestate,weestimatethataboutshalegaswellsperyearwillneedtobebroughtonlineoverthenextyearsKEYWORDS:Drillingscenarios,expectedultimaterecovery,wellperformance,welltypesGEOLOGYANDRESERVOIRCHARACTERISTICSTheHaynesvilleShaleisoneofseveralunconventionalgasplaysthathavebeendiscoveredintheUSinrecentyearsandpromisetodramaticallychangethecourseoffuturedomesticenergydevelopment(USDepartmentofEnergy)TheHaynesvilleShaleplaycoversasurfaceareaofabout,squaremilesacrossEastTexasandNorthwestLouisiana(Fig)TheHaynesvillewaslaiddownduringtheUpperJurassicandisoverlainbytheBossierShalefollowedbytheCottonValleySandstoneFormationItisunderlainbytheCottonValleyLimestoneinTexasandtheSmackoverLimestoneinLouisiana(Thompsonetal)TheHaynesvilleShaleisthedeepest,hottest,andhighestpressuredshaleamongthebigfourplays(theothersbeingBarnett,Fayetteville,andMarcellus)intheUSWellstargetingtheHaynesvilleShalearetypicallydrilledtodepthsbetween,and,ftwithhorizontallateralsextendingbetween,and,ftTheHaynesvilleisuniquebecauseofitsabnormallyhighpressures(–psift)andtemperaturesgreaterthan�FThehighreservoirpressureswerecreatedwhentheorganicmaterialintheshalebrokedownintogasbutremainedtrappedinthesourcerockbecauseofimpenetrablesurroundingrocklayersSedimentationfromancestralriversthickenedtheHaynesvillealongtheArkansasLouisianabordertoftTothesouth,theHaynesvilleCenterforEnergyStudies,LouisianaStateUniversity,EnergyCoastEnvironmentBuilding,NicholsonExtensionDrive,BatonRougeLA,USATowhomcorrespondenceshouldbeaddressedemail:mkaiserlsuedu�InternationalAssociationforMathematicalGeologyNaturalResourcesResearch,Vol,No,December(�)DOI:szintervalthinstoftthroughtheBossier,RedRiver,andDesotoParishesinLouisianaandShelbyCountyinTexas(Popeetal)Somesectionsarehighlypressurizedwithfaults,claydeposits,andotherfactorscontributingtodrillingcomplexityandriskThehighestproducingwellsoccurinanareawheretheintervalisthinwithhighcalciteandlowclaycontent(KulkarniWangandHammes)ThecontributionoftheHaynesvilleShaletostateproductionhasbeenphenomenal(Fig)Inaperiodofyears,almostofLouisiana�sgasoutputisnowsourcedfromtheHaynesville,andthroughDecember,TcfnaturalgashasbeenextractedfromtheplayMostregionsarethermallymatureandcontainonlydrygas(todate,onlyMbblcondensatehasbeenproducedintheregion)EstimatesoftechnicallyrecoverableresourcesrangebetweenandTcf,thusmakingtheHaynesvilleoneofthelargestshaleplaysintheUSThepurposeofthisarticleistodescribetheproductivitycharacteristicsofHaynesvillewells,projectfutureproductionfromtheinventoryofactivewells,andassessproductionpotentialbasedondrillingscenariosWebeginwithastatisticalanalysisofthewellsdrilledtodateandconstructtypeprofilestocharacterizetheplayExpectedultimaterecoveryestimatesandsensitivityanalysisareperformedtoexaminetheimpactoftheeconomiclimitonrecoveryvolumesWeestablishamodelcorrelationbetweeninitialproductionandultimaterecoverytoestimatethereservesdistributionofproducingwellsWeconcludewithproductionforecastsfortheinventoryofproducingwellsandpotentialdrillingscenariosFigureLouisianaparishmapShadedarearepresentsparishesoftheHaynesvilleplayTheblueareaiswherethemajorityofshalegaswellshavebeendrilledthroughSource:EIAFigureHaynesvillecontributiontoLouisianagasproduction(January–December)Technically,recoverableresourcequantitiesarenotanassessmentofprovedreservesKaiserandYuWELLSTATISTICSDataSourceTheLouisianaDepartmentofNaturalResourcesmaintainsdrillingdataintheSONRISsystemandidentifiesseparatelyHaynesvillewellsDataondrillingactivityincludesthespuddate,location,fieldname,leasetype,operator,verticaldepth,measureddepth,perforationinterval,andotherphysicalfeaturesofthewellconstruction(eg,tubingsize,casingsize,etc)andtestdata(eg,production,pressure,chokesize,etc)AdditionalinformationondrillingandcompletionactivitiesisbasedonscoutsheetsProductionactivityisreportedmonthlyintermsofleaseunitwell(LUW)administrativecodesSinglewellLUWsinvolveproductstreamsofonewellMultiplewellLUWsreportaggregateproductionbasedonmorethanoneproducingwellProductionHaynesvilleshalegasproductionvaluesbysinglewellandmultiplewellLUWsareshowninFigureThemajorityofproductionarisesfromsinglewellLUWsTherehavebeen,shalegascompletionsthroughDecemberwithsinglewellLUWsandmultiplewellLUWs(Fig)ThegrowthingasproductionisadirectresultofthelargenumberofnewwellsthathavebeenbroughtintoproductioninDeSoto,Caddo,andRedRiverParish(Fig)WellstrackproductiontrendscloselybecausetheplayisstillintheearlystagesofdevelopmentandmarginalwellinventoriesaresmallAsproductionmaturesandwellsage,thecorrelationbetweenthenumberofactivewellsandproductionwillbegintodivergeWellConfigurationTodate,ofHaynesvillewellshavebeendrilledtoverticaldepthsbetween,and,ft,andofwellshavebeendrilledbetween,and,ftTVD(Fig)Themeasureddepthofmostwellsrangebetween,and,ftindicatingthehighdeviationandhorizontaldisplacement(HD)ofwelltrajectories(Fig)Averageverticaldepthofwellconstructionhasincreasedfrom,ftinto,ftin(Table)asthecoreareasoftheplayhavebecomeestablishedTheratioofmeasureddepth(MD)totrueverticaldepth(TVD)isconcentratedbetweenFigureHaynesvilleshalegasproductionbysinglewellandmultiplewellLUWFigureHaynesvilleshalewellcompletionsbysinglewellandmultiplewellLUWsFigureHaynesvilleshaleproducingwellsparishwise(March–December)HaynesvilleShaleWellPerformanceandDevelopmentPotentialandforofwells,theMDTVDratiorangesfromto(Fig)OverofHaynesvillewellshaveaHDbetween,and,ftandaperforationintervalfrom,to,ft(Fig)VariationinHDandperforationintervalislarge(Table)andreflectsdifferencesincompletionstrategiesamongoperatorsPerforationlengthisthemostvariableofallthewellparametersandisanimportantelementindesignsinceitisakeyfactorinthetradeoffbetweenrevenueandcostCompletionTimeThetimetocompletionfromspudtototaldepthisshowninFigureusingscoutreportsFigureMeasureddepthandtrueverticaldepthofHaynesvillewells(–)TableStatisticalSummaryofHaynesvilleWells,–CharacteristicsAllWellscompleted,AverageTVD(ft),(–),(),(),(),()AverageHD(ft),(–),(),(),(),()AverageMDTVD(–)()()()()Averageperforation(ft),(–),(,),(,),(),(,)AverageIP(MMcfd)(–)()()()()NoteStandarddeviationdenotedinparenthesisFigureMDTVDratioofHaynesvillewells(–)FigureHorizontaldisplacementandperforationintervalofHaynesvillewells(–)HDisestimatedusingMD–TVDKaiserandYuThemajorityofwellsrequirelessthandaystodrilltototaldepth(TD),and–daystodrillandcompleteTheaveragetimetoTDisdaysScoutreportsprovideinsightontherequirementsofdrillingandcompletionbutneedtobeusedwithcautionCompletiontimeissubjecttoperforationandtestingrequirements,waitingonorders,waitingonpipeline,workpermitapproval,andotherfactorsChesapeakereportsthattheirHaynesvillewellsin–required–daystodrill(Webster)Encana,Petrohawk,EXCO,andotheroperatorsintheregionreportsimilarstatisticsInitialProductionInitialproduction(IP)isanindicatorofdeliverabilityandisastandardmeasureofwellqualityWenormalizeandreportonadailybasisIPratesbywellvintageTheaverageIPfortheallwellsthatstartedproducinginwasMMcfdin–,averageIPratesincreasedtoMMcfd(Table)IPratesvarywidelyandstandarddeviationindicatessignificantvariationacrosswellsManyfactorscontributetowellproductivity,includingthedepth,thickness,andlateralextentoftheshaleorganicrichnessthermalmaturationpermeabilityandporepressurestimulationsuccessandcompletionstrategy,suchasperforationinterval,numberoffracstages,andproppantvolumeIPratesinunconventionalplaystendtoreflecthowmuchrockhasbeenexposedbyagivencompletionAsthelengthofthelateralandtotalnumberofstagesincreases,IPisexpectedtoincreaseInpreviousstudies,highIPwellswereshowntobecorrelatedinstructurallythinareasandhighfreegasporosityregions(ThompsonetalPopeetal)Structuralthinnessenableseffectivestimulationoftheentireinterval,whilelowsmectilehighcalciteareasenabletheintervaltobestimulatedeasierFigurepresentsIPdistributionbywellvintageWellsbroughtonlinewithinthelastyearspeakhigherthantheolderwells,likelybecauseofbetteridentificationoncoreproductionareasandbetterexperiencewithfracturetechnologyIn–,halfofallwellshadanIPgreaterthanMMcfd,andofallwellshadpeakproductionbetweenandMMcfdOftheremainingofwells,theIPofabouthalffellbelowMMcfdandtheotherhalfrangedbetweenandMMcfdIPstatisticswerecategorizedintermsofverticaldepth,horizontaldisplacement,andperforationintervalforallwellswithproductionfortheperiodoflessthanmonths(Tables,)WellswiththehighestIPgenerallyresideintheenvelopewithTVD‡,ft,HD‡,ft,andperforationinterval‡ftWellswithalongerperforationintervalareexposedtoalargerportionoftheformationandgenerallyyieldhigherIPratesDeeperwellsshouldalsocorrelatewithhigherIPbecausepressure,temperature,andthermalmaturitygenerallyincreasewithincreasingdepthandincreasinggascontentLowIPmayindicatethinnerpay,interferenceeffects,andsmallerdrainageareasThehigherthesilicaorcarbonatecontent,themorebrittletheshale,andthebetterthefracturenetworkforproductionGeographicVariationAsummaryofaverageHaynesvillewellcharacteristicsparishwiseisdepictedinTableCoreareasarecenteredaroundCaddo,DeSoto,andRedRiverParishesBienville,Bossier,andSabineParishstatisticsaregroupedinonecategoryThesametrendsobservedstatewideholdataparishlevel,andtherearenosignificantdifferencesfromtheaggregateanalysisRedRiverandDeSotoParishwellsarethedeepestandthemostproductiveWellproductivityinCaddohasincreasedovertime,whileinDeSotoandRedRiver,thetrendsFigureDrillingandcompletiontime(–)Calciteisstiffandhard,andthehighcalcitecontentreducestheriskofproppantembedmentHaynesvilleShaleWellPerformanceandDevelopmentPotentialFigureInitialproductiondistributionofHaynesvillewellsbyvintageTableAverageInitialProductionofHaynesvilleWellsbyTVDandHD(MMcfd)HD(ft)TVD(ft)All<,,–,,–,‡,<,()()()()(),–,()()()()(),–,()()()()()‡,()()()()()All()()()()()NoteStandarddeviationdenotedinparenthesisTableAverageInitialProductionofHaynesvilleWellsbyTVDandPerforationLength(MMcfd)Perforation(ft)TVD(ft)All<,,–,,–,‡,<,()()()()(),–,()()()()(),–,()()()()()‡,()()()()()All()()()()()NoteStandarddeviationdenotedinparenthesisKaiserandYuareintheoppositedirectionGeographicvariationinIPratesarecausedbytheeffectsofmineralcontent,organiccontent,anddepthPublicdatadonotallowforamoredetailedgranularanalysisofspatialtrendsPRODUCTIONSTATISTICSTypeCurvesWegroupthewellboresbyageandcomputeaverageprofilesinitializedfromfirstproductionusingsinglewellLUWswithproductionhistorythroughDecemberThedatasetconsistsofwellsWedonotconsidermultiplewellLUWprofilesbecauseoftheadditionalprocessingrequiredtonormalizewellcountAveragingreducesextremecharacteristics,smoothesoutvolatility,andnormalizesproductionfordeparturesinoperatingpracticesAveragecurvesprovideageneralrepresentationofwellproductionpotential,andtheyareausefulmeanstoassessproductivityTheaverageprofileisreferredtoasthePcurveTableStatisticalSummaryofHaynesvilleWellsParishWise,–ParishAllWellscompletedCaddoDeSotoRedRiverOtheraTotalTVD(ft)Caddo,(–),(),(),(),()DeSoto,(),(),(),()RedRiver,(),(),()Other,(–),(,),(),()Total,(–),(),(),(),()HD(ft)Caddo,(–),(,),(),(),()DeSoto,(,),(),(),()RedRiver,(,),(),()Other,(–),(,),(),()Total,(–),(,),(),(),()Perforation(ft)Caddo,(–),(,),(,),(),(,)DeSoto,(,),(,),(),(,)RedRiver,(,),(,),(,)Other,(–),(),(),()Total,(–),(,),(,),(),(,)MVDTVDCaddo(–)()()()()DeSoto()()()()RedRiver()()()Other(–)()()()Total(–)()()()()IP(MMcfd)Caddo(–)()()()()DeSoto()()()()RedRiver()()()Other(–)()()()Total(–)()()()()NoteStandarddeviationdenotedinparenthesisaBienville,Bossier,andSabineParishesExtendedperiodsofzeroproductionaredifficulttomodelWellperformanceimprovementsalsocannotbeexplainedsinceinvestmentandmaintenancerecordsarenotpubliclyavailableWellsproducinginlowgaspricemonthsmaybechokedbackandcurtailedconversely,wellsbroughtonlineinhighpriceenvironmentsarelikelytobeproducingatfullpressureandmaximumproductionHighIPwellsmaybecurtailedifrequiredforwellborestabilityandtomaximizerecoveryvolumesHighIPratescauselargepressurechangeintubingandfractures,andproppantcrushing,whichmayreduceultimaterecoveryToretaintheeffectivenessofthefracjobandtoincreaserecovery,severaloperatorshavereportedusingreducedchokesizesofinorin(Wang)HaynesvilleShaleWellPerformanceandDevelopmentPotentialP,P,andPProfilesTheaveragemonthlyproductionprofilesforHaynesvillewellsbyvintagearedepictedinFigureWellsarecategorizedbyageintosixvintageclasses:£,–,–,–,–,and‡monthsInadditiontotheaverageproductionprofiles,wealsopresentPandPcurvesPrepresentstheproductionprofileofthewellwhereofthecategorywellsexceeditscumulativeproductionatthebeginningofthetimeperiodPrepresentsthewellwhereofthecategorywellsexceedcumulativeproductionUnlikePwhichrepresentstheaverageprofileofthesampleset,thePandPcurvesrepresentaspecificwell,rankedandselectedaccordingtocumulativeproductionPandPcurvesrepresentindividualwellsandwillexhibitgreatervolatilityrelativetoPcurvessincetheyarenotaverageprofilesDeclineCurvesSteepproductiondeclineisacommoncharacteristicofshaleplaysbecauseofformationandcompletioncharacteristics(BaihlyetalAndersonetal)InTable,theaveragemonthlydeclinerate(DEC)byvintageiscomputedforthefirstyearofproductionInthefirstmonths,DECsrangedfromtopermonththereafter,DECsrangedbetweenandpermonthProductionhistoriesfromHaynesvillewellsarenotwellestablished,andsoestimationofdeclinecurvesandreservesissubjecttosignificantuncertaintyEachprofileinFigurewasmodeledusingdeclinecurvesandregressionanalysisInTable,bestfitexponentialparametersarepresentedPcurvesgenerallyyieldthehighestmodelfitsbecausetheaveragingprocessnormalizesthedataThevintageclassof–monthsneedstobeinterpretedwithcautionbecauseproductioncharacteristicsareunlikelytobeestablishedduring

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