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A.Random.Walk.Down.Wall.Street.pdf

A.Random.Walk.Down.Wall.Street.…

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简介:本文档为《A.Random.Walk.Down.Wall.Streetpdf》,可适用于财会税务领域,主题内容包含Documentfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDownnlReaderdllBookID=FileName=Cov符等。

Documentfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDownnlReaderdllBookID=FileName=Coverhtml::AMDocumentPageARandomWalkDownWallStreetIncludingALifeCycleGuideToPersonalInvestingBurtonGMalkielChemicalBankChairman'sProfessorofEconomicsAtPrincetonUniversityfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDownnlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html::AMDocumentPageCopyright,,,,,,byWWNortonCompany,IncAllrightsreservedPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaThetextofthisbookiscomposedinZapfEllipticalwiththedisplaysetinBerlingDesktopcompositionbyJustineBurkatTrubeyManufacturingbytheHaddonCraftsmen,IncLibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationDataMalkiel,BurtonGArandomwalkdownWallStreet:includingalifecycleguidetopersonalinvestingBurtonGMalkielpcmRevedof:arandomwalkdownWallStreetcIncludesbibliographicalreferencesandindexISBNInvestmentsStocksRandomwalks(Mathematics)IMalkiel,BurtonGRandomwalkdownWallStreetIITitleHGM—dcCIPWWNortonCompany,Inc,FifthAvenue,NewYork,NYhttp:wwwwwnortoncomWWNortonCompanyLtd,CopticStreet,LondonWCAPUfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDownnlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html::AMDocumentPageToNancyfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDownnlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html::AMDocumentPageCONTENTSPrefaceAcknowledgmentsfromEarlierEditionsPartOneStocksandTheirValueFirmFoundationsandCastlesintheAirWhatIsaRandomWalkInvestingasaWayofLifeTodayInvestinginTheoryTheFirmFoundationTheoryTheCastleintheAirTheoryHowtheRandomWalkIstoBeConductedTheMadnessofCrowdsTheTulipBulbCrazefile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentTheSouthSeaBubbleTheFloridaRealEstateCrazeWallStreetLaysanEggAnAfterwordStockValuationfromtheSixtiesthroughtheNinetiesTheSanityofInstitutionsTheSoaringSixtiesTheNew"NewEra":TheGrowthStockNewIssueCrazeSynergyGeneratesEnergy:TheConglomerateBoomPerformanceComestotheMarket:TheBubbleinConceptStocksTheSourSeventiesTheNiftyFiftyTheRoaringEightiesfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentTheTriumphantReturnofNewIssuesConceptsConquerAgain:TheBiotechnologyBubblefile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentPageTheChineseRomancewiththeLycorisPlantSomeOtherBubblesofthesWhatDoesItAllMeanTheNervyNinetiesTheJapaneseYenforLandandStocksTheInternetCrazeoftheLatesAFinalWordTheFirmFoundationTheoryofStockPricesThe"Fundamental"DeterminantsofStockPricesTwoImportantCaveatsTestingtheRulesOneMoreCaveatWhat'sLeftoftheFirmFoundationfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentPartTwoHowtheProsPlaytheBiggestGameinTownTechnicalandFundamentalAnalysisTechnicalversusFundamentalAnalysisWhatCanChartsTellYouTheRationalefortheChartingMethodWhyMightChartingFailtoWorkFromChartisttoTechnicianTheTechniqueofFundamentalAnalysisWhyMightFundamentalAnalysisFailtoWorkUsingFundamentalandTechnicalAnalysisTogetherTechnicalAnalysisandtheRandomWalkTheoryHolesinTheirShoesandAmbiguityinTheirForecastsIsThereMomentumintheStockMarketfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentJustWhatExactlyIsaRandomWalkSomeMoreElaborateTechnicalSystemsTheFilterSystemTheDowTheoryTheRelativeStrengthSystemPriceVolumeSystemsReadingChartPatternsRandomnessIsHardtoAcceptAGaggleofOtherTechnicalTheoriestoHelpYouLoseMoneyfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentPageTheHemlineIndicatorTheSuperBowlIndicatorTheOddLotTheoryAFewMoreSystemsTechnicalMarketGurusWhyAreTechniciansStillHiredAppraisingtheCounterattackImplicationsforInvestorsHowGoodIsFundamentalAnalysisTheViewsfromWallStreetandAcademiaAreSecurityAnalystsFundamentallyClairvoyantWhytheCrystalBallIsCloudedTheInfluenceofRandomEventsTheCreationofDubiousReportedEarningsthrough"Creative"AccountingProceduresTheBasicIncompetenceofManyoftheAnalystsThemselvesTheLossoftheBestAnalyststotheSalesDeskortoPortfolioManagementfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentDoSecurityAnalystsPickWinnersThePerformanceoftheMutualFundsCanAnyFundamentalSystemPickWinnersTheVerdictonMarketTimingTheSemistrongandStrongFormsoftheRandomWalkTheoryTheMiddleoftheRoad:APersonalViewpointPartThreeTheNewInvestmentTechnologyANewWalkingShoe:ModernPortfolioTheoryTheRoleofRiskDefiningRisk:TheDispersionofReturnsExhibitExpectedReturnandVariance:MeasuresofRewardandRiskDocumentingRisk:ALongRunStudyReducingRisk:ModernPortfolioTheory(MPT)DiversificationinPracticeReapingRewardbyIncreasingRiskBetaandSystematicRiskfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentPageTheCapitalAssetPricingModel(CAPM)Let'sLookattheRecordAnAppraisaloftheEvidenceTheQuantQuestforBetterMeasuresofRisk:ArbitragePricingTheoryASummingUpTheAssaultontheRandomWalkTheory:IstheMarketPredictableafterAllPredictablePatternsintheBehaviorofStockPricesStocksDoSometimesGetonOneWayStreetsButEventuallyStockPricesDoChangeDirectionandHenceStockholderReturnsTendtoReverseThemselvesStocksAreSubjecttoSeasonalMoodiness,EspeciallyattheBeginningoftheYearandtheEndoftheWeekPredictableRelationshipsbetweenCertain"Fundamental"VariablesandFutureStockPricesSmallerIsOftenBetterStockswithLowPriceEarningsMultiplesOutperformThosewithHighMultiplesfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentStocksthatSellatLowMultiplesofTheirBookValuesTendtoProduceHigherSubsequentReturnsHigherInitialDividendsandLowerPriceEarningsMultiplesHaveMeantHigherSubsequentReturnsThe"DogsoftheDow"StrategyAndtheWinnerIsThePerformanceofProfessionalInvestorsConcludingCommentsAppendix:TheMarketCrashofOctoberPartFourAPracticalGuideforRandomWalkersandOtherInvestorsAFitnessManualforRandomWalkersExercise:CoverThyselfwithProtectionExercise:KnowYourInvestmentObjectivesExercise:DodgeUncleSamWheneverYouCanPensionPlansandIRAsfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentKeoghPlansRothIRAsfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentPageTaxDeferredAnnuitiesExercise:BeCompetitiveLettheYieldonYourCashReserveKeepPacewithInflationMoneyMarketMutualFundsMoneyMarketDepositAccountsBankCertificatesTaxExemptMoneyMarketFundsExercise:InvestigateaPromenadethroughBondCountryZeroCouponBondsCanGenerateLargeFutureReturnsNoLoadBondFundsAreAppropriateVehiclesforIndividualInvestorsTaxExemptBondsAreUsefulforHighBracketInvestorsHotTIPS:InflationIndexedBondsShouldYouBeaBondMarketJunkieExercise:BeginYourWalkatYourOwnHomeRentingLeadstoFlabbyInvestmentMusclesExercise:BeefUpwithRealEstateInvestmentTrustsExercise:TiptoethroughtheInvestmentFieldsofGoldandCollectiblesExercise:RememberthatCommissionCostsAreNotRandomSomeAreCheaperthanOthersfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentExercise:DiversifyYourInvestmentStepsAFinalCheckupHandicappingtheFinancialRace:APrimerinUnderstandingandProjectingReturnsfromStocksandBondsWhatDeterminestheReturnsfromStocksandBondsThreeErasofFinancialMarketReturnsEraI:TheAgeofComfortEraII:TheAgeofAngstEraIII:TheAgeofExuberanceTheAgeoftheMillenniumAppendix:ProjectingReturnsforIndividualStocksALifeCycleGuidetoInvestingFourAssetAllocationPrinciplesRiskandRewardAreRelatedYourActualRiskinStockandBondInvestingDependsontheLengthofTimeYouHoldYourInvestmentfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentPageDollarCostAveragingCanReducetheRisksofInvestinginStocksandBondsTheRisksYouCanAffordtoTakeDependonYourTotalFinancialSituationThreeGuidelinestoTailoringaLifeCycleInvestmentPlanSpecificNeedsRequireDedicatedSpecificAssetsRecognizeYourToleranceforRiskPersistentSavingsinRegularAmounts,NoMatterHowSmall,PaysOffTheLifeCycleInvestmentGuideThreeGiantStepsDownWallStreetTheNoBrainerStep:InvestinginIndexFundsTheIndexFundSolution:ASummaryABroaderDefinitionofIndexingASpecificIndexFundPortfolioTheTaxManagedIndexFundTheDoItYourselfStep:PotentiallyUsefulStockPickingRulesfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentTheSubstitutePlayerStep:HiringaProfessionalWallStreetWalkerRiskLevelUnrealizedGainsExpenseRatiosTheMorningstarMutualFundInformationServiceAPrimeronMutualFundCostsLoadingFeesExpenseChargesComparingMutualFundCostsTheMalkielStepAParadoxSomeLastReflectionsonOurWalkARandomWalker'sAddressBookandReferenceGuidetoMutualFundsBibliographyIndexfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDonlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html(of)::AMDocumentPagePREFACEIthasnowbeenclosetothirtyyearssinceIbeganwritingthefirsteditionofARandomWalkDownWallStreetThemessageoftheoriginaleditionwasaverysimpleone:InvestorswouldbefarbetteroffbuyingandholdinganindexfundthanattemptingtobuyandsellindividualsecuritiesoractivelymanagedmutualfundsIboldlystatedthatbuyingandholdingallthestocksinabroad,stockmarketaverage—asindexfundsdo—waslikelytooutperformprofessionallymanagedfundswhosehighexpensechargesandlargetradingcostsdetractsubstantiallyfrominvestmentreturnsNow,somethirtyyearslater,Ibelieveevenmorestronglyinthatoriginalthesis,andthere'smorethanasixfiguregaintoproveitThechartonthefollowingpagemakesthecasewithgreatsimplicityItshowshowaninvestorwith$,atthestartofwouldhavefaredinvestinginaStandardPoor'sStockIndexFundForcomparison,theresultsarealsoplottedforasecondinvestorwhoinsteadpurchasedsharesintheaverageactivelymanagedfundThedifferenceisdramaticThroughJune,,theindexinvestorwasaheadbyalmost$,,withheroriginal$,increasingthirtyonefoldto$,Andtheindexreturnswerecalculatedafterdeductingthetypicalexpenses(ofpercent)chargedforrunninganindexfundfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDownnlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html::AMDocumentPageTheValueof$,InvestedinWhythenaseventheditionofthisbookIfthebasicmessagehasn'tchanged,whathasTheansweristhattherehavebeenenormouschangesinthefinancialinstrumentsavailabletothepublicAbookmeanttoprovideacomprehensiveinvestmentguideforindividualinvestorsneedstobeupdatedtocoverthefullrangeofinvestmentproductsavailableInaddition,investorscanbenefitfromacriticalanalysisofthewealthofnewinformationprovidedbyacademicresearchersandmarketprofessionals—madecomprehensibleinproseaccessibletoeveryonewithaninterestininvestingTherehavebeensomanybewilderingclaimsaboutthestockmarketthatit'simportanttohaveabookthatsetstherecordstraightOverthepastquartercentury,wehavebecomeaccustomedtoacceptingtherapidpaceoftechnologicalchangeinourphysicalenvironmentInnovationssuchascellularandvideotelephones,cabletelevision,compactdiscs,microwaveovens,laptopcomputers,theInternet,email,andnewmedicaladvancesfromorgantransplantsandlasersurgerytononsurgicalmethodsoftreatingkidneystonesanduncloggingarterieshavemateriallyaffectedthewayweliveFinancialinnovationoverthesameperiodhasbeenequallyrapidIn,whenthefile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDownnlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html::AMDocumentPagefirsteditionofthisbookappeared,wedidnothavemoneymarketfunds,NOWaccounts,ATMs,indexmutualfunds,taxexemptfunds,emergingmarketfunds,floatingratenotes,inflationprotectionsecurities,equityREITs,RothIRAs,zerocouponbonds,SPindexfuturesandoptions,andnewtradingtechniquessuchas''portfolioinsurance"and"programtrading,"justtomentionafewofthechangesthathaveoccurredinthefinancialenvironmentMuchofthenewmaterialinthisbookhasbeenincludedtoexplainthesefinancialinnovationsandtoshowhowyouasaconsumercanbenefitfromthemThiseditiontakesahardlookatthebasicthesisofearliereditionsofRandomWalk—thatthemarketpricesstockssoefficientlythatablindfoldedchimpanzeethrowingdartsattheWallStreetJournalcanselectaportfoliothatperformsaswellasthosemanagedbytheexpertsThroughthepastthirtyyearsthatthesishasheldupremarkablywellMorethantwothirdsofprofessionalportfoliomanagershavebeenoutperformedbytheunmanagedSPStockIndexNevertheless,anumberofstudiesbyacademicsandpractitioners,completedduringthesands,havecastdoubtsonthevalidityofthetheoryAndthestockmarketcrashofOctoberraisedfurtherquestionsconcerningthevauntedefficiencyofthemarketThiseditionexplainstherecentcontroversyandreexaminestheclaimthatit'spossibleto"beatthemarket"IconcludethatreportsofthedeathoftheefficientmarkettheoryarevastlyexaggeratedIwill,however,reviewtheevidenceonanumberoftechniquesofstockselectionthatarebelievedtotilttheoddsofsuccessinfavoroftheindividualinvestorThebookremainsfundamentallyareadableinvestmentguideforindividualinvestorsAsIhavecounseledindividualsandfamiliesaboutfinancialstrategy,ithasbecomeincreasinglycleartomethatone'scapacityforriskbearingdependsimportantlyuponone'sageandabilitytoearnincomefromnoninvestmentsourcesItisalsothecasethattheriskinvolvedinmostinvestmentsdecreaseswiththelengthoftimetheinvestmentcanbeheldForthesereasons,optimalinvestmentstrategiesmustbeagerelatedChapterThirteen,entitled"ALifeCycleGuidetoInvesting,"shouldproveveryhelpfultopeopleofallagesThischapteraloneisworththecostofahighpricedappointmentwithapersonalfinancialadviserFinally,thefactsandfiguresinthebookhavebeencompletelyfile:E|UnpostedNetlibARandomWalkDownnlReaderdllBookID=FileName=html::AMDocumentPagerevisedandupdatedIsurveythestockandbondmarketsattheendofthetwentiethcenturyandpresentasetofstrategiesthatshouldsuccessfullycarryinvestorsintothenewmillenniumMydebtsofgratitudetothosementionedinearliereditionscontinueInaddition,ImustmentionthenamesofanumberofpeoplewhowereparticularlyhelpfulinmakingspecialcontributionstotheseventheditionTheseincludeJamesLitvack,GabrielleNapolitano,AbbyJosephCohen,JamesRiepe,GeorgeSauter,JohnBogle,LeilaHeckman,WillMcIntosh,KeithMullins,JimTroyer,AndrewEngel,MarkThompson,StevenGoldberg,WillySpat,andDavidTwardockSpecialthanksgotoWalterLenhardandAndrewClarkeofTheVanguardGroupofInvestmentCompanies,whoassembledmuchofthefinancialdataoninvestmentreturnsusedinthisedition,andtoShaneAntosandJonathanCurran,whoprovidedindispensableandsuperbresearchassistanceLugeneWhitleymadeextraordinarycontributionsintransformingvariousillegibledraftsanddictatingtapesintoreadabletextPhyllisDureposalsoprovidedvaluabletypingassistanceEdParsonsandMarkHendersonofWWNortonprovidedindispensableassistanceinbringingthiseditiontopublicationPatriciaTaylorcontinuedherassociationwiththeprojectandmadeextemelyvaluableeditorialcontributionstotheseventheditionMywife,NancyWeissMalkiel,madebyfarthemostimportantcontributionstothesuccessfulcompletionofthepastthreeeditionsInadditiontoprovidingthemostlovingencouragementandsupport,shereadcarefullythroughvariousdraftsofthemanuscriptandmadeinnumerablesuggestionsthatclarifiedandvastlyimprovedthewritingSheevencorrectedseveral

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