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首页 2012-01-09_野村证券_HongKongbanksoutlook2012.pdf

2012-01-09_野村证券_HongKongbanksoutlook2012.pdf

2012-01-09_野村证券_HongKongbanksou…

上传者: wisdom_ljh 2012-03-20 评分1 评论0 下载6 收藏0 阅读量346 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《2012-01-09_野村证券_HongKongbanksoutlook2012pdf》,可适用于高等教育领域,主题内容包含MarginmeltdownLoweringsectorstancetoBearishanddowngradingHangSengBanktoRed符等。

MarginmeltdownLoweringsectorstancetoBearishanddowngradingHangSengBanktoReduceHistorically,strongloangrowthhashelpedtocushionthespeedofNIMcompressionatHKbanksWeturnBearishonthesectoraswenowexpectloangrowthtobeweak,inlinewithslowerGDPgrowthWeconservativelyassumebpNIMcompressionforHKbanksinF,vsourpreviousassumptionofbpWeexpectcutstoconsensusearningsforecaststoaccelerateinthenearfutureWedowngradeHSBtoReduce,asweexpectacapitalcallfromIndustrialBankwhichcouldpromptadividendcutWekeepBEAatReduceanddowngradeDSFtoNeutralBOCHKisouronlyBuyKeyanalysisinthisanchorreportincludes:•Theoutlookforloangrowthinaslowereconomy,andimplicationsforNIM(netinterestmargins)•Whycreditcostsshouldnormaliseupwardmorequicklythanthemarketexpects•WhyconsensusearningsforecastsstilllooktoohighEQUITYRESEARCHANCHORREPORTJanuary,Researchanalysts HongKongBanksDanielShum,CFANIHKdanielshumnomuracomChinaBanksLucyFengNIHKlucyfengnomuracomSeeAppendixAforanalystcertification,importantdisclosuresandthestatusofnonUSanalystsHongKongbanksoutlookHongKongbanksoutlookFINANCIALSEQUITYRESEARCHANCHORREPORT:Marginmeltdown LoweringsectorstancetoBearishanddowngradingHangSengBanktoReduceJanuary,Actions:Reduce:HSB(HK,TP:HK$),duetolikelihoodofdividendcutReduce:BEA(HK,TP:HK$),duetopotentialrightsissuesBuy:BOCHK(HK,TP:HK$),duetostrongRMBLTgrowthCatalyst:NIMcompressionarisingfromslowdowninloangrowthWeexpectNIMcompressiontoaccelerateagaininF,asloangrowthshouldbeweaker,inlinewithoureconomicsteam'srecentcuttotheirFHKGDPgrowthforecastfromtoHistorically,strongloangrowthhashelpedtocushionthespeedofNIMcompressionNIMcompressioncouldbemoreseverethanmarketexpectationsWewerebuildinginbpsNIMcompressioninFHowever,NIMcompressionislikelytobegreaterthanourexpectationsDBSHK’s(unlisted)resultsindicatedthatNIMcompressedbyasmuchasbpsqqinQIfthesametrendappliesforotherHKbanks,revenueprogressionwouldbemassivelyhurtsincethereisnoassetgrowthandfeeincomegrowthwasmutedTobeconservative,wearebuildinginbpsHKNIMcompressionforF,whichcausesasharpearningscutConsensusearningsdowngradesarelikelytoaccelerateSincethestartof,consensusdownwardsrevisionsforthemidsizedbanks(WHBDSF)werelarge,atto,whilethoseforlargebanks(BOCHK,HSBandBEA)wererelativelystable,attoWebelieveconsensusforecastshavenotfullyreflectedtherecentweakNIMandloangrowthoutlooksConsensusearningsdowngradesarelikelytoaccelerateinthenearfuture,whichislikelytoweighonsharepricesDowngradingHKbankssectortoBearishDowngradingHSBtoReducewithanewTPofHK$WebelievethefundamentalsofHKbanksareweakeningfurther,withnoneartermupsidecatalystThusweturnmorebearishonthesectorWedowngradeHSBtoReduce,duetoapotentialdividendcutinF,asweexpectacapitalcallfromIndustrialBankwearealsodowngradingDSFtoNeutral,sincewedonotseeanupsidecatalystinthenearfutureFig:StocksforactionsSource:Bloomberg,NomuraResearchPricesasofJanuaryAnchorthemesWearebearishonHKbankssincelowerloangrowthinFislikelytospeedupNIMcompressionWedonotseeanyupsidecatalystbeforeapotentialUSratehikearoundmidNomuravsconsensusOurtargetpricesareingenerallowerthanconsensusduetoourmorecautiousNIMoutlookResearchanalystsHongKongBanksDanielShum,CFANIHKdanielshumnomuracomChinaBanksLucyFengNIHKlucyfengnomuracomStockTickerRatingCurrentprice(HKD)PriceTargetBOCHKHKBuyDSFHKNeutralWHBHKNeutralHSBHKReduceBEAHKReduceSeeAppendixAforanalystcertification,importantdisclosuresandthestatusofnonUSanalystsNomura|HongKongbanksoutlookJanuary,ContentsInvestmentsummary FGDPdownwardsrevisioncastsshadowonloanandNIMoutlook Creditcostislikelytonormalisefasterthanmarketexpectations Consensusearningsforecastsmaybetoohigh LoweringoursectorratingtoBearishandchangestoourstockpicks Valuation ProspectivePriceEarningscharts ProspectivePricetoBookcharts ProspectivePricetoPreProvisionProfitsCharts Valuationmethodologyandriskdiscussions HangSengBank BOCHongKong(Holdings) BankofEastAsia DahSingFinancial WingHangBank AppendixA Nomura|HongKongbanksoutlookJanuary,InvestmentsummaryLoanandNIMdownwardsrevisionwithlowerHKGDPforecastWehavebeenexpectingNIMcompressionsinceourinitiationofcoverageofHKbanksinMarchWewerebuildingaroundbpsNIMcompressionforFHowever,webelievetheoperatingenvironmentforHKbankshasbecomemorechallengingOurHKeconomist,MrTomoKinoshita,hasreviseddownwardshisHKGDPgrowthforecastfromtoforFAsloangrowthhasastrongcorrelationwithGDPgrowth,wearerevisingourloangrowthandNIMassumptionsdownwards,causingsharpcutsinearningsforFInaddition,therecentQresultsatDBS(HK)suggestthatNIMcompressionofHKbankscouldbegreaterthanourexpectationsMarginsatDBSHKcompressedbybpsqqinQIfthesametrendappliestootherHKbanks,revenueprogressionwouldbemassivelyimpacted,sincetherewasnoassetgrowthinHandfeeincomeoriginationwasslowTobeconservative,wearebuildinginbpsNIMcompressionforF,whichcausesasharpcutinearningsWearenowbelowconsensusforFandFFig:HKMA:SystemNetInterestMarginsOnadownwardstrendSource:CEIC,NomuraResearchEstimatesFig:IndividualHKBanks:NetInterestMarginsSource:Companydata,NomuraResearchQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ()Nomura'sestimatesHHHHHQHangSengBOCHK(exRMBClearing)BEAWHBDSFDBS(HK)Tobeconservative,wearenowbuildinginbpsNIMcompressionforFIftheDBSHKtrendappliesforotherHKbanks,revenueprogressionwouldbenegativelyimpacted,inourviewNomura|HongKongbanksoutlookJanuary,ConsensusearningsdowngradeslikelytoaccelerateInviewoftheabove,webelieveconsensusearningsdowngradesarehighlypossibleinthecomingmonthsStartingfromJanuary,consensusFestimatesforthemidsizedbanks(WHBandDSF)havecorrectedby,whilethoseforlargesizedbanks(BOCHK,HSBandBEA)remainedrelativelystableatWebelieveconsensusforecastshavenotfullyreflectedtherecentweakNIMandslowloangrowthtrendsforHKbanksConsensusearningsdowngradesarelikelytoaccelerateinthenearfuture,whichislikelytoweighonHKbanks’sharepriceperformanceCurrentlyourFestimatesarearoundbelowconsensusFig:HKBanks’FConsensusEarningsRevisionTrendDownwardrevisionslowlyacrosstheStreetSource:FactSet,NomuraResearchTighteningliquidityisputtingfurtherpressureonNIMAnothermajorreasonforsignificantNIMcompressionisduetothetighteningofliquidityinHK,leadingtoasurgeoffundingcostsamongHKbanksHKDLDRstoodatinNovember,upfromsinceDecemberGoingforward,liquidityislikelytotightenfurthersinceloangrowthstilloutpaceddepositgrowthinNovemberOnourestimates,partoftheHKmortgageloanbookmaybelossmakingForsomeofthemortgageloanspricingatHIBORbpspremium,theeffectivemortgageyieldisjust,muchlowerthantherecentfixeddepositrateofcAsweexpectthedepositratetoincreasefurther,weestimateitwouldbeanothersourceofmargindragforHKbanksFig:HK:LoanDepositRatiosSource:CEIC,NomuraResearchDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecHSBBOCHKBEAWHBDSFJanJanJanJanJanJanTotalLDRHKDLDRForeignCurrencyLDRDownwardsearningsrevisionsbyconsensusarelikelytoaccelerateHighHK$loandepositratioislimitingHKbanks’capacityforloangrowthNomura|HongKongbanksoutlookJanuary,Theonlywayforcreditcosttogoisup,inourviewInaddition,creditcostswerealreadyatalowlevel,atbpsinH,andcreditnormalisationmaybefasterthatourexpectations,givenoureconomist’srecentdownwardsrevisionofHK’seconomicforecastRecentDBSHKresultsindicatedthatcreditcostispickingupsharplyOurrisktendencyanalysissuggestedthatnormalisedcreditcostscanbeashighasbpsonaverageWearenowbuildingjustbpsforF–becausethecreditnormalisationnormallylagsbehindtheeconomiccyclebymonthsHowever,thisleavessomescopeforfutureearningsdowngrades,inouropinionOursectorratingisnowBearishWebelievefundamentalsofHKbanksareweakeningfurtherinF,withnoneartermupsidecatalystWenowhaveaBearishratingonthesectorWehavemadethefollowingchangestoourstockrecommendations:)DowngradingHangSengBank(HK)toReducefromNeutralwithanewTPofHK$WebelievethedividendatHSBislikelytobecutinFasweexpectacapitalcallfromitsinvestmentsinassociateIndustrialBankWeestimateIndustrialBank’scoreTiertodroptobyDecemberF,triggeringacapitalcallasithasdonepreviouslyinOurFestimateofdividendpershareofHK$islowerthanconsensusatHK$HSBtradesondividendyieldThehighprobabilityofadividendcutinislikelytoweighonHSB’ssharepriceperformanceFig:IndustrialBank:CoreTierRatiosOnadownwardstrendSource:CompanyData,NomuraResearch)WearedowngradingDahSingBank(HK)toNeutralfromBuyWeviewmidsizebanksasmoresusceptibletoNIMcompressioninFduetorisingfundingcostsWithnoneartermupsidecatalyst,weturnNeutralonthestockFig:HKBanks:EPSRevision,F(HK$)Source:NomuraResearchEstimatesFig:HKBanks:NomuravsIBESEPS,F(HK$)Source:FactSet,NomuraResearchQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQFFIndustrialBank'sCapitalCallinNomura'sestimatesFFFFFFHSBBOCHKBEAWHBDSFAverageNewOldChangeFFFFFFHSBBOCHKBEAWHBDSFAverageNomuraIBESVarianceWeestimateIndustrialBank’scoreTiertodroptobyDecemberF,triggeringacapitalcallNomura|HongKongbanksoutlookJanuary,Fig:HKBanks:ValuationComp(HK$)Source:CompanyData,NomuraResearchPricesasofJanuaryMktCapCurrentTargetRating(USDbn)PricePriceFFFFFFHSBREDUCEBOCHKBUYBEAREDUCEWHBNEUTRALDSFNEUTRALSectorBloombergtickerFFFFFFFFHSBHKBOCHKHKBEAHKWHBHKDSFHKSectorReportedEPSPEPBPPPPDivYieldROEROANomura|HongKongbanksoutlookJanuary,FGDPdownwardsrevisioncastsshadowonloanandNIMoutlookNomura’seconomicsteamforecastsasharpslowdownoftheHKeconomyforFGDPgrowthwasrevisedfromto,duetothecurrentglobalfinancialturmoil(Fordetails,pleaserefertothelatestNomuraeconomicresearchAsiaPacificOutlook:TheMayansweren’thistory’sbestriskmanagersdatedDecember)Fig:NomuraHKEconomicsForecastsSource:NomuraGlobalEconomicsLoangrowthisimportantinsupportingNIMHistorically,loangrowthinHKhasbeenhighlycorrelatedtonominalGDPgrowthAssuch,webelieveloangrowthforHKbanksislikelytodeceleratefurtherfromcurrentlevelswithlowerGDPgrowthinFFig:HK:NominalGDPvsLoanGrowthStrongcorrelationSource:CEIC,NomuraResearchLoangrowthisimportantsinceithelpstocushionthespeedofNIMcompressioninalowinterestrateenvironmentIngeneral,marginsareunderpressureinalowinterestrateenvironmentStrongloangrowthhelpstoimprovetheassetmixbyshiftinglowyieldinterbankplacementintohighyieldloans,thusthespeedofNIMcompressionwasgreatlyreducedinIn,HKbanksaggressivelygrewtheirloanbooksbyyyandmanagedtolimitNIMcompressiontojustbpsGoingforward,withaweakerloangrowthoutlookinF,webelievetheNIMcompressionislikelytoaccelerateagaininFInfact,webelievethemarginrecoveryofbpsinQisshortlivedTheHongKongMonetaryAuthority(HKMA)justdisclosedthatHKbanks’netinterestmarginsexpandedbybpsqqinQ,reachinginQWebelievethemarginexpansiontrendinQisnotsustainableinthelongrunOverallNIMshouldcontinuetotrenddownwardswithrisingfundingcostsandslowdownofloangrowthinFThemajorreasonfortheQNIMexpansionwasduetothepeakingofloangrowthinQ,implyingthatNIMbenefitsshouldbefeltinQLoangrowthreachedapeakofyyinMaysincethenloangrowthslowedtoinNovemberFFFRealGDPGrowthCPIHIBORMFFNominalGDPYoYTotalLoansYoY()HKGDPgrowthwascutfromtoWithlowerFGDPforecast,loangrowthislikelytoslowdownfurtherfromcurrentlevelsNomura|HongKongbanksoutlookJanuary,WebelieveNIMwillresumeitsdownwardtrendasloangrowthhasslowedinHInaddition,thecurrentHKDloandepositratioreachedahighlevelofinNovemberWebelieveanotherquarterofstrongloangrowthandNIMexpansionisunlikelyFig:HK:LoanGrowthvsNIMOutlookSource:CEIC,NomuraResearchNoupsidecatalystinsightInourview,noneartermupsidecatalystsarevisibleInorderforNIMexpansion,weneedaUSratehikeHowever,ourUSeconomistexpectstheUSinterestratetoremainlowuntilmidAssuch,weexpectHKbanks’sharepriceperformancetoremainunderpressureinFig:USFedFundvsNIMOutlookSource:CEIC,NomuraResearchStructurallyweaktogrowloanbookStructurally,webelieveHKbankswillberunningoutofsteamtogrowtheirloanbooksinHongKongDollarsLoanDepositRatios(HK$LDR)reachedinNovemberInaddition,loangrowthsloweddownfurthertoinNovember,thiscomparedtothepeakofinMayWebelieveislikelytobeayearofslowloangrowthQQQQQQQQQFNetinterestmargins(LS)LoanGrowth(RS)NomuraestimatesQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQFQFNetinterestmargins(LHS)FedFundRate(RHS)MarginislikelytocollapsewithaslowdownofloangrowthInourview,thereisnoupsidecatalystuntilaUSratehikeinmidNomura|HongKongbanksoutlookJanuary,Fig:HK:LoanGrowthYYSource:CEIC,NomuraResearchFig:HKBanks:LoanDepositRatios,JuneSource:CompanyData,NomuraResearchWearerevisingdownwardsourloangrowthassumptionsOurloangrowthassumptionsforFarerevisedfromtoFig:HKBanks:LoanGrowthOutlookSource:CompanyData,NomuraResearchJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanHKTotalLoanGrowthYoYLoanforUseinHKGrowthYoYLoanoutsideHKYoYOutside:HK:Total:()DSFBEAWHBHSBBOCHKHSBDSFAverageWHBBEABOCHKFFLoangrowthpeakingoutNomura|HongKongbanksoutlookJanuary,CreditcostislikelytonormalisefasterthanmarketexpectationsInH,creditschargeswereatverybenignlevelsAveragecreditchargeswerejustbpsforbanksundercoverageBEAevenwrotebackabpsprovisionasanincomestreamGiventheweakeningcoreprofitabilityofH

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