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首页 2012-01-12_汇丰银行_AsiaShipbuilding.pdf

2012-01-12_汇丰银行_AsiaShipbuilding.pdf

2012-01-12_汇丰银行_AsiaShipbuildin…

上传者: wisdom_ljh 2012-03-20 评分 0 0 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《2012-01-12_汇丰银行_AsiaShipbuildingpdf》,可适用于高等教育领域,主题内容包含abcGlobalResearchSectorhasyettobottomshipbuildingisstillabuyer’smarketIt’s符等。

abcGlobalResearchSectorhasyettobottomshipbuildingisstillabuyer’smarketIt’stimetostockpicklookbeyondlowvaluationstoreceivablesandcashbalancesKoreansbenefitfromstrongexposuretooffshoreandLNGbusinesspreferSHI,upgradetoOW(V)fromNSentimentvsfundamentalsThesectorunderperformedtheKOSPIbyinHduetoweakordermomentumandglobalmacroconcernsWhileinvestorsentimentsuggeststhesectorhasbottomed,wedon’tthinktheindustryfundamentalssupportthisviewasmostindicatorsarenotimprovingandtheglobalmacrooutlookremainsgloomyThismeansstockselectionhasbecomemoreimportantandwesuggestinvestorsfocusonnewsflow,paymentdelaysandcashlevelsratherthanjustlowvaluationsOffshorethekeyWebelieveKoreanyardsarebetterpositionedthantheirAsianpeersastheyhavemoreexposuretotherobustoffshoreandLNGbusinessButthesefactorsalonewillnotbeenoughtoturnthetideWeseenoreasontoturnbullishonthesectorasawholeuntilfundamentalsimprovethroughhighervesselprices,strongerordervolumesandabetterfinancingenvironmentWeurgeinvestorstobemoreselectiveinHasshipbuildingisstillabuyer’smarketandoffshoreproductionordersshouldbethedifferencebetweenwinnersandlosersPreferSamsungHeavy(SHI),upgradetoOW(V)fromNWebelieveSHIisstronginoffshoreandLNG,istheonlyshipbuilderlikelytoachievemorethanitsnewordertargetandhaslowerriskfromlongtermaccountreceivablesWeareOverweight(V)onMipoandNeutral(V)onHyundaiHeavy(HHI),DaewooShipbuilding(DSME)andRongshengWenowapplyIFRStoourmodelsandchangeourtargetpricesaccordingly–SHItoKRW,fromKRW,,HHItoKRW,fromKRW,,DSMEtoKRW,fromKRW,,MipotoKRW,fromKRW,,andRongshengtoHKDfromHKDOurtargetpricesforHHIandSHIareandbelowmarketconsensus,respectivelyIndustrialsAsiaShipbuildingAsiaShipbuildingTimetostockpickpreferSHIRatingsandvaluationsHHISHIDSMEMipoRongshengCodeKSKSKSKSHKShareprice(Localcurr)KRW,KRW,KRW,KRW,HKDMktcap(Localcurr),b,b,b,b,mMktcap(USDm),,,,,RatingN(V)OW(V)N(V)OW(V)N(V)TP(new)KRW,KRW,KRW,KRW,HKDTP(old),,,,Potentialreturn()PEPBSource:Bloomberg,HSBCestimates*Note:PricingasofJanuaryPotentialreturnequalsthepercentagedifferencebetweenthecurrentsharepriceandthetargetprice,plustheforecastdividendyieldJanuaryPaulChoi*AnalystTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SeoulSecuritiesBranchpaulchoikrhsbccomJinkyuRyu*AssociateTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SeoulSecuritiesBranchjinkyuryukrhsbccomDavidPhillips*AnalystHSBCBankplcdavidphillipshsbcibcomViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:http:wwwresearchhsbccom*EmployedbyanonUSaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregisteredqualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsIssuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SeoulSecuritiesBranchDisclaimerDisclosuresThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitIndustrialsAsiaShipbuildingJanuaryabcInvestmentsummarySentimentvsfundamentalsStockpicksValuationandrisksValuationmethodologyIFRSconversionStocksSectorrisksIndustryoverviewNofurtherrecoveryfromhereBulkersTankersContainersLNGcarriersOffshoreCompanysectionHyundaiHeavy()SamsungHeavy()DSME()HyundaiMipoDockyard()ChinaRongshengHeavy()DisclosureappendixDisclaimerContentsIndustrialsAsiaShipbuildingJanuaryabcSentimentvsfundamentalsWeremaincautiousonthesectorItunderperformedinHandalthoughthesharepriceweaknesshasreducedexpectations,webelievethatinvestorsentimentmayhavebottomedButwearenotsurethatthefundamentalssupportthisviewasmostindicatorsarenotimprovingandtheglobalmacrooutlookremainsgloomyInH,theshipbuildingsectorrecoveredslightly,mainlydrivenbystrongdemandforlargecontainers,LNGcarriers(LNGC)andoffshorerigssuchasdrillshipsWhileordersslowedinH,comparedtoH,weexpectstrongLNGandoffshoredemandtocontinueinHowever,wewouldnotviewthisrecoveryascyclical,aswesawinWeexpectglobalneworderstodeclinebytomCGTinWhilewethinknewordertargetsareachievable,volumesandpricingarenotstrongenoughtochangethecurrentmarketdynamicsInvestmentsummarySentimenthasbottomedbutitistooearlytoturnbullishwithoutbettervesselpricingandvolumesIt’stimetostockpickmacronewsflowshouldprovidetradingopportunitiesRemaincautiousupgradeSHItoOW(V)fromNmaintainOW(V)onMipo,N(V)onHHI(addingVflag),DSME,andRongshengShipbuildingcycletrendsMarketcap(LHS)Neworder(LHS)DollarIndex(RHS)Oil(LHS)Vesselprice(LHS)(index)(index)ASPHikeisrequiredtodriveshipbuildingsectorSource:Bloomberg,HSBCIndustrialsAsiaShipbuildingJanuaryabcManyconcernsremain,suchastheprofitabilityofcurrentneworders,overcapacity,newbuildpriceandweakfreightratesAlso,wedon’tthinkLNGexportsfromtheUS,apotentialcatalyst,isastorySofar,sixcompanieshaveappliedforpermissiontoexportLNG,withacumulativecapacityofalmost,billioncubicfeet(bcf)peryearorjustoverofcurrentUSproductionOfthese,onlyCheniereEnergyhasreceivedDepartmentofEnergy(DoE)approvaltoexportnaturalgastononfreetradecountriesHowever,theprojectisunlikelytogetaconstructionpermituntiltheimpactondomesticgaspriceshasbeenreviewedThissuggeststheLNGstoryintheUSisnotastory,morelikeDon’tbefooledbyvaluationKoreanshipbuildersunderperformedtheKOSPIbyinHDespitethissharpcorrection,enterprise(EV)tobacklogratiosandPBvaluationsstillremainaboveLehmancrisislevelsandtheirfiveyearaverageAlongwiththefallinearningsforecasts,fairvaluesarebeingdrivendownbyincreasedrisksrelatedtotheuncertaineconomicoutlookwhichhasraisedthecostofcapitalKoreanshipbuildingstockshavebeenrangeboundandwhilethismayprovidetradingopportunitiesitisatrendthatcouldlastalotlongerthanmanyexpect,inourviewTous,therecentsharepricecorrectionagaindemonstratesthattheshipbuildingsectordoesnotmovepurelyforvaluationreasonswhenthemarketisvolatileWebelievevaluationsareoftenignoredbyinvestorsoncethesectorgainsstrongmomentumineitherdirectionProposedNorthAmericanLNGexportprojectsProjectOwnersLocationTerminalVolumeStatusSabinePassLiquefactionCheniereEnergyLouisianaSabinePassLNGReceivedconditionalDOEapprovaltoexporttobothFTAandnonFTAcountriesApplicationispendingwithFERCFreeportLNGExpansionConocoPhillips,othersTexasFreeportLNGReceivedconditionalDOEapprovaltoexporttoFTAcountries,butapprovalpendingtononFTAcountriesLakeCharlesExportsSouthernUnionLouisianaLakeCharlesReceivedconditionalDOEapprovaltoexporttoFTAcountries,butapprovalpendingtoNonFTAcountriesCaribEnergyCaribEnergyNotapplicableNotApplicableReceivedconditionalDOEapprovaltoexporttoFTAcountriesinSouthAmerica,CentralAmerica,andtheCaribbeanDominionCovePointDominionResourcesMarylandDominionCovePointLNGApplicationtoexporttoFTAcountriesispendingwithDOEJordanCoveEnergyFortChicagoandEnergyProjectsDevelopmentOregonJordanCoveApplicationtoexporttoFTAcountriesispendingwithDOEKitimatLNGApache,EOGResources,EncanaBritishColumbia,CanadaKitimatApprovedbyCanada'sNationalEnergyBoardBCLNGLNGPartnersHNDCLNGBritishColumbia,CanadaNewConstructionAppliedtoCanada’sNationalEnergyBoard(Pending)Source:USDepartmentofEnergyIndustrialsAsiaShipbuildingJanuaryabcKoreanBigEVtobacklogtrendyraverageSource:Companydata,HSBCValuationsarestillaroundhigherthanthetroughin,mainlyduetoassetrevaluationbyHHIandDSMEThismakespricetobookvaluelowerthaninandsomebelievethiscouldbetherighttimetoaccumulatethesecyclicalstocksWearenotsosureAlthoughthehighvolatility,weaksentimentandlowervaluationprovidetradingopportunitiesfromatechnicalperspective,wedonotexpectmanycatalystsormuchmomentuminHThisisbecausetherehasnotbeenanyimprovementinthebigsectordriverssuchasneworders,vesselpricesandfinancingHigherpricesneededtoboostROEShipbuildingstockshaveastrongercorrelationwithindustryindicatorssuchasbacklog,newordervolume,vesselpricesandfreightratesthancurrentearningsAssuch,thelackofnewordermomentuminH,depressedvesselpricingandtheweakfinancingenvironmentshouldprovidedownsideriskstotherallyordersinHItisdifficulttoestimatetheprojectedmarginfromnewordersatthetimetheordersareplacedOneoftheeasiestwaystocheckthedirectionofprofitabilityisthepriceofvessels,whichcanenhancesectorROERecentASPtrendsinmostsubsectorsareeitherdecliningormovingsideways,drivenbyweakerfinancing,theuncertaineconomicoutlookandstrongercompetitionOnlytheLNGCsegmentmaypostASPimprovementonthebackofstrongcharterratesHowever,thisalonecannotprotectthemarginforshipbuildersanditisstillnotcertainthatprofitabilitywillhitthebottominThebiggestsectordriverwouldnormallybenewordersbutwethinkvesselpricingwillbethemostimportantfactorinthecurrentdowncycleWedidnotseeanymeaningfulASPincreaseformosttypesofvesselinShipbuildersnotonlyExpectedassetimpairmentofEuropeanbanksRBSDeutscheSocGenUnicreditBPCENatBankofCommerzbankEurobankEFGBankiaPiraeusATEBankBarclaysBNP(EURbn)Source:ReutersIndustrialsAsiaShipbuildingJanuaryabcofferedlowerpricesbutalsoattractivepaymenttermstosecurenewordersASPsgenerallytendtofollowtheoverallmarketvolumesbutdespiteastrongrecoveryinH,evenaninflationaryenvironmenthasnotledtohigherpricingWedonotexpectpricingtoreboundsoonasthecorrelationbetweenweakerfinancingandpricingisincreasinglyimportantformostcustomers,giventheuncertainoutlookImpactofweakEURonASPShippingandshipbuildingisaUSDdenominatedbusinessGeographyisirrelevantnomatterwhereownersarebasedasbothincomeandexpensesareinUSDIt’sadifferentstoryfortheinternationalbankswhoseloanvolumesaredependentontheUSdollarexchangerateandwhosefundingisinlargepartinlocalcurrencyTheUSDEURratehasnowreachedalmostUSDfromUSDinQ,duetoEuropeansovereigndebtcrisisThishasledtoadeteriorationinthepurchasingpowerofEuropeanshipownersInterestingly,newbuildpricesforshipswereatarecordhighduringwhentheEURreacheditspeak(seechartbelow)PaymentproblemsItappearsthattheshipyardsareexperiencingpaymentdelaysfromstrugglingshipownersevenonvesselsalreadydeliveredInsomecasestheyardshaveagreedtopaymentsbeingspreadoveryearsThisissurprisingasitdidnothappenbackinthecrisisdaysofWecannotcheckexactlyhowmuchthiseffectsunderconstructionandalreadydeliveredaccountsbutbylookingattheoperatingcashflowandnetdebttrendwebelievefurtherdeteriorationisunavoidableinKoreanshipyardshavebeengeneratinggoodcashflowbasedonorderssecuredintheboomtimesofBalancesheetsanddividendshavebeenhealthyinthepastyearsHowever,therecentdeclineinnewordersandtheinabilitytomakenewinvestmentshaveerodedshareholdervalueAsofQ,netdebttoequitydeterioratedtofromattheendofQAmongbiginKorea–HHI,SHI,DSME–DSMEhassufferedthemostWeexpectcashflowtocontinuetobeerodedin,withincreasednetdebtMarginsarefallingduetodeliverydelays,morelowerpricedvessels,ahigherfixedcostburdenandrelativelyhigherrawmaterialpricesThecombinedeffectwouldinevitablymeanacontractioninROEUSDEURvsNewbuildingpriceKoreaBigShipbuilder:NetdebttoEquityNBPriceUSDEUR($dwt)HHISHIDSMESource:Bloomberg,ClarksonSource:CompanydataasofQIndustrialsAsiaShipbuildingJanuaryabcCanoffshoresaveKorea’sbigWithstrongoilprices,attractiveyardnewbuildpricesandcontractdayratesstarting,longtermdemandfordeepwaterdrillingunitsislikelytoremainstrongTheEPsectoroverallis,wethink,inamuchbetterpositionthanitwasin–companiesseemtohavelearntnottorelyonacontinuallyincreasingsourceofliquiditytomeettheircommitments,andoverallwedonotthinkthe“financing”anglewillderailgrowthDeepwater(specificallyultradeepwater)marketsarestillabsorbingnewsupplybuthavealreadymanagedtopostimprovementsincontractedrates(withsomecontractsalreadyrollingoverorbeingsethigherthanUSD,day)Wethinkfurtherimprovementsindeepwaterdayratescouldwellbevisibleincontractsin–asever,potentialdemandfromBrazilremainsthelargest“movingpart”thatcouldacceleratethispictureTheoutlookforordersacrossoffshorecategoriesis,wethink,quitepositiveoverthenextfewyears,butthemixislikelytobedifferent:Jackuprigs–the“fleetrenewal”tradeshouldcontinueandweexpecttoseeasignificantnumberofordersasthedrillingindustryupgradesitsexisting(old)fleetThisislikelytoprovegoodnewsforthespecialisedSingaporeyards,someChineseyardsandalsoMiddleEasternfacilitieslikeLamprell(playingtheircostadvantage)Floaterrigs–afterthewaveofdrillshipsin,weexpectmoreofabalancebetweenordersforsemisubmersiblesanddrillshipsinBrazilremainsthesinglelargestmovingpart,withitsongoingtenderfornewdeepwaterunitstobebuiltinBrazilitselfThewinnersfromthisarelikelytobethemainstreamKoreanyards(forbusinesswithinternationaldrillingcontractorsinparticular),butwenotethatthesinglelargesttenderfornewbuildsisfocusedonBrazilianconstructionFPSOs–weexpectconversionworktopickupoverthenextfewyears,whichraisesthequestionastowhetherthereisenoughyardspaceinSingaporetohandlethisspecialisedwork(althoughsomeworkwilllikelyrelocatebacktoBraziloverthelongerterm)Weexpectmoreearlystageconversionwork(notmodulesorintegration)goingtoChineseandotheryardswherethereiscapacitytoeasethebottleneck(webelievethemainstreamFPSOspecialistsarealreadyexaminingthisclosely)Newbuildworkwillalsolikelyseedecentactivity,wethink,whichislikelytofalltotheKoreanyards(asisfurtherworkaroundfloatingLNG–FLNG)Despitethelongtermpositiveoutlook,thestandaloneoffshoredemandmakesuswonderifthissubsegmentcansavetheoverallshipbuildingindustryandenhancetheearningsprofiledramaticallyThecurrentstrongexposuretodrillshipsshouldnotbeenoughtoimprovebothtopandbottomlinegrowthforKoreanshipbuilders,rathertheywouldexpandintosomeotherareas,includingsubseaorengineering,whereEuropeannamesarestilldominating,withhighentrybarrierduetoregulationandsafetyissuesDrillshipnewordersin(Unit)NeworderOptionCharteredSpeculativeCharteredHHISHIDSMETotalKoreanyardsGlobalnewordersSource:Rigzone,Clarkson,Companydata,HSBCIndustrialsAsiaShipbuildingJanuaryabcBesides,westillbelievethatmanyoffshoreprojectswillbedelayedfurtherforvariousreasons(seethetablebelow)In,outofordersfordrillshipswenttoKoreanshipbuilders,representingaglobalmarketshareofnearlyWeexpectnewordersforoffshoredrillingrigstoslowtounitsin,Korea’sBighavesetanewordertargetofUSDbn,upfrombutdownfromtheactuallysecuredordersinWebelievetheywillhavetoclinchseveralnewoffshoreorderstoachievetheirnewordertargetsAccordingtoHSBCoilfieldserviceresearch,FPSOdemandislikelytoincreaseinHowever,asmostoftheupcomingprojectsarelikelytoberelocationsorconversions,notnewbuilds,SingaporeorChineseyardscouldbenefitmorethanKoreanyardsOntheotherhand,weexpectKoreanshipbuilderstobenefitfromtheincreasingdemandforoffshoreLNGproductionunits,especiallySamsungHeavy,duetotheirstrongtrackrecordandhigherexposuretopotentialprojectsAssetvaluesunderpressureCashoperatingcostsforrigshavegoneupperyearsincemidandwethinkthiscouldhaveaimpactonrigoperators’earnings,dependingontheageoftheirfleetsThisimpliesthatcustomerswillincreasinglypreferthesecondhandmarkettonewvesselsRigownersalsobelievethecurrentnewbuildpricingisexpensiveandhaveputexpansionplansonholdduetotherisingcostofbuildingplatformsThus,wemaycontinuetoseeweakernewbuildpricingaswellasAsianyardshavinglessbargainingpower,soexpectnoimprovementinthebigsectordriverssuchasnewordersandvesselpricesOngoingoffshoreprojectsCountryProjectDeveloperTypeVesselFIDStatusAustraliaIchthysInpexGasCPFQ*ThemarketingwascompletedrecentlyCondensateFPSO*FIDisexpectedtocompleteinOnshore*SupplymtonperannumtoKOGASSunriseWoodsideGasLNGFPSOUnlikelyin*GasreserveislocatedinadisputedareawherethebordersofEastTimorandAustraliaoverlap*IssuesremainunresolvedasAustraliaprefersaFLNGproject,wh

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