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首页 2011-12-23_瑞银证券_USEconomicPerspectives:2011Endi…

2011-12-23_瑞银证券_USEconomicPerspectives:2011EndingStronger.pdf

2011-12-23_瑞银证券_USEconomicPersp…

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简介:本文档为《2011-12-23_瑞银证券_USEconomicPerspectives:2011EndingStrongerpdf》,可适用于高等教育领域,主题内容包含UBSInvestmentResearchUSEconomicPerspectivesEndingStronger„Moreupsidesurpri符等。

UBSInvestmentResearchUSEconomicPerspectivesEndingStronger„MoreupsidesurprisesaheadWeeklyunemploymentinsuranceclaimshavefallenmorethanexpected,whilehousingandconfidencestatisticshavebeenbetterthananticipatedInthissetting,wehaveraisedourexpectedrealGDPgrowthrateforQfromtoThestrongerfinalquarterprovidesastatisticalstartingpointgreaterthanwehadexpectedforGDPversusitscalendaraverageTherefore,wehaveraisedourcalendaraveragerealGDPforecastfromtoDespitecontinuedweaknessoverseas,twokeysourcesofdomesticresiliencyshouldbeahealingresidentialrealestatemarketandfurtherlaggedbanklendingbenefitsfromearlierFedquantitativeeasing(QE)„USEconomicPerspectivesbibliographyThisissuecontainsabibliographyofUBSUSEconomicsPerspectivesessayspublishedduringWehopeyoufinditausefulreferenceguidetoourresearchpublishedoverthepastyearThankyouforyourinterestinourresearchinOurforecastingeffortswererecognizedintheJanuaryeditionofBloombergMarketsThedepartmentwascitedashavingthemostaccurateweekaheadforecastsofUSeconomicdataoverthetwoyearperiodthroughthethirdquarter„ThepastweekInthepastweek’sreports,thebroadermeasuresofQactivitywerestrengtheningwithimprovementinclaims,confidence,andtheleadingeconomicindexHousingalsogavesignsofapickup,althoughearliersalesvolumeswerecutHowever,capexhasbeensoftinQandQGDPwasreviseddownward„TheweekaheadInalimitedweekofeconomicreports,theweeklystoresalesindexesandjoblessclaimsdatawillbeafocusStoresalesindexeshavereboundedaftertypicalearlyDecembersoftnessNewjoblessclaimshavebeenfallinginThelatestfourweekaverageofkcompareswithaveragesofkinQandkinHHousingrelateddatainthecomingweekwilllikelybemixed,withtheNovemberpendinghomesalesrising,butanexpecteddeclineintheSPCSpriceindexGlobalEconomicsResearchAmericasNewYorkDecemberwwwubscomeconomicsMauryNHarrisEconomistmauryharrisubscomDrewTMatusEconomistdrewmatusubscomSamuelDCoffinEconomistsamuelcoffinubscomKevinCumminsEconomistkevincumminsubscomLayoffsaredownandhiringplansareupTheriseinthehousingmarketindexofhomebuildersentimentinQisconsistentwithstrengtheninghousingstartsInitialjoblessclaims(left)NFIBplanningtoincreaseemployment(right)seasonallyadjusted,'snetDec*NovHousingmarketindex(left)Singlefamilyhousingstarts(right)yy,quarterlydata(bothaxes)QQ**LatestfourweekaveragethroughDecSource:DepartmentofLaborandNationalFederationofIndependentBusiness*QtodateSource:CensusBureauandNationalAssociationofHomebuildersThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLCANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGEabUSEconomicPerspectivesDecemberUBSContentspageMoreupsidesurprisesaheadBibliographyThePastWeekUBSUSEconomicForecasts:WhatandWhyUSGDP,InterestRate,andInflationForecastsTheWeekAheadUSEconomicDataandEventsCalendarWewishyouhappyholidaysandahealthyandprosperousNewYear!OurregularpublicationschedulewillresumeonJanuaryWewouldliketothankJessyMoyaforherassistanceWewouldliketothankSheebaJoy,anemployeeofCognizantGroup,forherassistanceinpreparingthisresearchreportCognizantstaffprovideresearchsupportservicestoUBSUSForecastSummaryPercentchange,seasonallyadjustedatannualrates,exceptwherenoted,DecEarlyDecBlueCalendaraverageChipConsensusEEERealGDP(Chain)PrivatesectoroutputPersonalconsumptionexpendituresBusinessfixedinvestmentGovernmentpurchasesNetexports($bil)Changeininventories($bil)PrivatefinaldemandFinalsalesInventorycontribution(pctpts)NominalGDPKeybusinessindicatorsFRBindustrialproductionindexCivilianunemploymentrate(,level)Housingstarts(millions)InflationCPIUCoreCPIUPCEChainPriceIndexCorePCEChainPriceIndexPercentAnnualaverageFederalfundsrateyeargovernmentnotesSource:DepartmentofCommerce,FederalReserveBoard,BureauofLaborStatistics,TreasuryDepartment,BlueChip,andUBSestimatesMauryNHarrisEconomistmauryharrisubscomDrewTMatusEconomistdrewmatusubscomSamuelDCoffinEconomistsamuelcoffinubscomKevinCumminsEconomistkevincumminsubscomUSEconomicPerspectivesDecemberUBSMoreupsidesurprisesaheadWeeklyunemploymentinsuranceclaimshavefallenmorethanexpected,whilehousingandconfidencestatisticshavebeenbetterthananticipated(SeePastWeeksectiononpage)Moreover,corroboratingevidenceofimprovementhasbeenobservedinboththeManpowerandNationalFederationofIndependentBusiness(NFIB)threemonthaheadhiringplansindexesrisingtotheirhighestlevelsinthecurrenteconomicexpansion(Seeaccompanyingchart)Inthissetting,wehaveincreasedourexpectedrealGDPgrowthrateforQfromto(SeefurtherdetailsinWhatWhysectiononpageandforecasttableonpage)Lookingbeyondyearend,weseesuchyearendmomentumcarryingoverto,forwhichwehaveraisedourcalendaraveragerealGDPforecastfromtoDespitecontinuedweaknessoverseas,twokeysourcesofdomesticresiliencyshouldbeahealingresidentialrealestatemarketandfurtherlaggedbanklendingbenefitsfromearlierFedquantitativeeasing(QE)Inassessingtheeconomy’sfuture,forecastersmayhaveexpectedtoomuchimmediateimpetusfromtheFed’stwomassiveQEprogramsexecutedduringmostofandandthefirsthalfofSubsequently,prognosticatorsmayhavebeentooimpatientinwaitingfortheirfulleffectstosettleinQEandQEultimatelyraisedbanks’excessreservesbyaround$trillionbymidTheaccompanyingimpactsonbankliquidity,deposits,andlendingstandardshavebeenfollowedonlymorerecentlybyarecoveryinaggregatebankcredit(Seechart)Inaddition,thefullhousingeconomicimpactfromQEandOperationTwisteffectsonlongerterminterestratesalsoshouldbelaggedLayoffsaredownandhiringplansareupFollowingQE(s),bankcredithasstartedrisingagainInitialjoblessclaims(left)NFIBplanningtoincreaseemployment(right)seasonallyadjusted,'snetDec*NovDec*Bankcredit,$bilQEQE*LatestfourweekaveragethroughDecSource:DepartmentofLaborandNationalFederationofIndependentBusiness*DecShadedareasmarkQEandQESource:FederalReserveBoardendingsomewhatfirmerthanexpectedProjectedrealgrowthraisedfromtodespiteEuropeanrecessionLaggedQEeffectsarea“sleeper”USEconomicPerspectivesDecemberUBSAkeyreasonforthesubparUSeconomicrecoveryhasbeentheabsenceoftypicalpostrecessionstimulusfromreboundinghousingoutputandhomeprices(Seeaccompanyingchartoncyclicalhousingoutputdevelopments)However,in,webelievetherecouldfinallybesomeupsidesurprisesinthehousingsectorOur,unithousingstartsforecastis,aboveconsensusestimates,aswecontinuetobelievemoreevidenceofstabilizinghomepriceswillhelpboosthomebuyerdemandAlreadyinNovember,housingstartsata,annualratewereneartheBlueChipconsensusforecastof,unitsTheNovemberstartsrisewasledbyasurgeinthenumberofunitsstartedinmultifamilystructurestoa,annualrateWhilethisisavolatilemonthlystatistic,itiswellworthnotingthatstrongerrentalsareanimportantmotivatorofmoreapartmentbuilding(Seeaccompanyingchart)Meanwhile,singlefamilystartsrosetoa,annualrateversusthe,paceinthefirstmonthsofLookingaheadto,weexpecthousingstartstorisefromaround,unitsinto,units,unitsabovethe,consensusforecastSpecifically,weexpectsinglefamilystartstoriseby,unitstoa,annualrate,whilea,unitgainalsoisexpectedformultifamilystartsto,units(Note:Newsinglefamilyhomesales,whichexcludeunitsbuiltonlandnotownedbythehomebuilder,areexpectedat,unitsvsanestimated,unitsinhomesales,whichincludesinglefamilyunits)()Risingrentalactivity(seeaccompanyingchart)andassociatedhigherrentsaremotivatinghighermultifamilystarts()Therecentdropinjoblessclaimsandbetterhiringplanspointtobetterjobgrowthakeytohomesales()Evolvingstabilityinhomepricesshouldencouragebuilder(seechartonnextpage)andhomebuyerconfidenceHousingisthecriticalmissingingredientinslowgrowthrecoveryButrisingrentingistriggeringmoreapartmentbuildingresidentialinvestmentcontributiontorealGDPgrowth,pctptsquartermovingaverageQ,,,,,Totalrenteroccupiedhomes(left)Multifamilystarts(right)'s's,arQQ*QShadedareasmarkperiodsofrecessionSource:BureauofEconomicAnalysis*OctoberNovemberaverageSource:CensusBureauCouldhousingstopdisappointingNovemberhousingstartswerealreadyneartheconsensusforecastWhat’sbehindouraboveconsensushousingstartsforecastRents,jobs,andhomepricesarekeystohousingstartsUSEconomicPerspectivesDecemberUBSWecontinuetoprojectstablehomepricesforandotherforecastersarestartingtoagreeInthelatest(December)quarterlysurveyofjustoverhomepriceforecastsbyZillowPulseonomicsLLC,themedianforecastchangeforthenationalSPCaseShillerhomeresalepriceindexonaQQbasisforisonlyjustaboutflat(Note:Individualforecastsrangefromto)Lastweek,whentheNationalAssociationofRealtors(NAR)reportedariseinNovemberexistinghomesales,italsoreportedadownwardrevisionofaroundtotheoveralllevelofsalesdatingbacktoHowever,inventoriesalsowerereviseddownAndthenumberofmonthsofsalesrepresentedbyunsoldinventoriesfelltoaroundmonthsversusaroundmonthsayearearlierWithinventoriesversussalesreturningmuchclosertoaroundthesixmonthlevelduringthes,beforethehomepriceexplosionofthefollowingdecade(seechart),wearebecomingevermoreconfidentinourstablehomepriceforecastFinally,thesharpdownwardrevisioninestimatedhomeinventoriesforsaleandsalesisareminderoftheinevitableuncertaintythatshouldbeattachedtoestimatesoftheremainingnationalhousingglutWehavecontendedthatanalyzingsuchdatashouldbeconditionedwithcommonsensejudgement(eg,howmuchofthisinventoryisingoodenoughconditiontohavebroadspreadeffectsonprices)Also,inassessingthehomepriceimplicationsofdistressedpropertiesdisposition,attentionshouldbepaidtothedemandforsubsequentdwellingsbydisplacedresidents(Seeaccompanyingcharts)ExistinghomeunsoldinventoriesvssaleshaveretreatedtomonthsneartherangeforstablehomepricesinthesTheriseinthehousingmarketindexofhomebuildersentimentinQisconsistentwithstrengtheninghousingstartsSinglefamilyexistinghomesalesmonthssupply(left)SPCShousepriceindexesyych*(right)NovHousingmarketindex(left)Singlefamilyhousingstarts(right)yy,quarterlydata(bothaxes)QQ*Source:CensusBureau*QtodateSource:CensusBureauandNationalAssociationofHomebuildersWestillforeseehomepricestabilityExistinghomesales:is“revisionisthistory”relevantUSEconomicPerspectivesDecemberUBSThearoundonethirdofforeclosedfamiliesmigratingtolargersizedhouseholdsisarough,upperboundestimateof“doublingup”TheothertwothirdsofthesefamiliesarelikelytoberesidinginearliervacantresidencesAroundonethirdofdistressedhomesalesareofhomesinsubparcondition,whichlimitspotentialnegative“spreadeffects”tohomepricesoutsideofthedistressedneighborhoodsIncrease,Decrease,Same,Changeinhouseholdsizeafterdisplacementbyforeclosure,(foreclosureperiod)BelowaverageAverageWellbelowaverageHouseconditionofdistressedsales,Source:FRBNYEquifaxConsumerCreditPaneldatafromMayFedworkingpaper“ThePostForeclosureExperienceofUSHouseholds”Source:NationalAssociationofRealtors(September)MauryHarrisUSEconomicPerspectivesDecemberUBSBibliographyThefollowingisabibliographyofUBSUSEconomicsPerspectivesessayspublishedduringWehopeyoufinditausefulreferenceguidetoourresearchTheUBSUSEconomicsPerspectiveswillresumenormalpublicationonFriday,January,Themaintopic(s)coveredineachessayarefoundinthemargintextThankyouforyourinterestinourworkoverthepastyearWelookforwardtoworkingwithyounextyearandwishyouallthebestforahappyandprosperousNewYearDecember:America’sMomentum„USandEuropeonsameplanetHowcanWesternEuropebeslippingintoarecessionwhiletheUSeconomyappearstobepickingupsomemomentumInourview,importantreasonsarelowergasolinepricesforaUSpopulationwithrelativelyhighvehicleownershipandimprovedbanklendingfollowingtheFed’stwoquantitativeeasing(QE)roundsWestillbelieverealGDPgrowthispickinguptoaannualizedgrowthrate,withupsiderisks,inQandwillbeadecentindespiteWesternEurope’seconomicandfinancialwoesDecember:SteadyFedasGrowthAccelerates„FOMC:Alltalk,noactionTheFederalOpenMarketCommitteemeetingonDecislikelytofocusmoreoncommunicationstrategythanonactionstofurtherstimulatetheUSeconomyWecontinuetoexpecttheFedwouldbereluctanttoengageinfurtherquantitativeeasingabsenttheriskofafinancialsystemmeltdownandcreditcontractionthatwouldensueDecember:SeasonofHope„MomentumHopingthehouseholdsurveyiscorrectTheNovemberemploymentreportsentasomewhatmixedmessageabouttrendsinemployment,aspayrollgainsweremoderatebuthouseholdsurveyemploymentmeasurescontinuedtosurgeThestrongertoneofthehouseholdsurveyemploymentmeasureappearstobecorroboratedbyconsumerattitudesaboutthelabormarket,quitrates,andrecentspendingindicatorsMonetarypolicyEmploymentUSEconomicPerspectivesDecemberUBSNovember:WillPoliticians’FumbleBeRecovered„SuperCommitteeRIPTheSuperCommitteehasfaileditsCongressionalmandatetoproposesignificantlongertermFederaldeficitreductionstepsinadditiontothe$billionindiscretionarycutsoverayearperiodapprovedbyCongresslastsummerInthissetting,theBudgetControlActofauthorizesaspendingsequestrationprocessbeginningin,withbroadbasedgovernmentspendingcutstotallingjustover$billionperyearoveratenyearperiodHowever,webelieveimplementingcutsofthesemagnitudesisnotpoliticallypalatableInstead,inthenearterm,westillexpectCongressandtheObamaAdministrationtoagreeonextendingthisyear’stemporarySocialSecuritytaxcuts,settoexpireatyearendWemaintainourgrowthforecastsofinandinNovember:ShortTermStimulus,LongTermAusterity„FiscalfactorsWithmonetarypolicyreachingitslimitsintheUSandeventsinEuropesustainingfinancialandeconomicuncertainty,weexpectUSpolicymakerswill,underpressure,acttoreduceconcernsaboutfiscalpolicydysfunctionandboosttheeconomyWelookfortheSuperCommitteetocometoadeficitreductionagreementbyitsNovdeadline,whichshouldbolsterconfidenceinthegovernment’swillingnesstoaddressitslongertermfiscalimbalancesAtthesametime,weexpectCongresswillacttopasselementsofthePresident’sjobsplanbeforeyearend:thepayrolltaxcutexpansionandextensionandsomeextensionofunemploymentbenefitsTheseactionsbyCongressshouldboostconfidenceintheUSpoliticalprocess’abilitytoaddressthecountry’slongtermfiscalissuesAdditionally,thefiscalstimuluselementsshouldboostdisposableincomeandallowconsumerstofurtherbolstertheirbalancesheetsNovember:USGrowthDespiteEurozoneWoes„BanklendingstillsupportinggrowthFewerloanofficersreportedeasinglendingstandardsatthestartofQthaninQHowever,thedeteriorationwascenteredinloanstobanksandbusinesseswithsignificantexposuretoEuropeOtherbusinessborrowingdidnotappeartobeaffectedbyEuropeanstrainsstandardsformortgages“changedlittle”andtheshareofbankseasingstandardsonotherconsumerloanswassimilartoQLesspervasiveeasingoflendingstandardswouldusuallybeanegativeforGDPgrowthHowever,thetighteningthatdidoccurwasnarrowlyfocusedonEuropeanexposures,andcorebanklending(includingbusinessandconsumerloans)finallyhasbeguntoriseafterathreeyeardeclineWecontinuetoseebanklendingasanimportantsupportfortheeconomicrecoveryFiscalpolicyFiscalpolicyCreditcreationUSEconomicPerspectivesDecemberUBSNovember:StavingOffaEuropeanFlu„HowcontagiousisEurozoneOurEuropeaneconomistsarenowforecastingthatEuropewillfallintoarecessionduringHinresponsetothecumulatingfinancialstrainsaccompanyingtheregion’ssovereigndebtcrisisHowever,wedonotforeseeweakEuropeanmarketsforUSexportsdo

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