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首页 公民、情境、选择:情境如何影响公民的选举中的抉择

公民、情境、选择:情境如何影响公民的选举中的抉择.pdf

公民、情境、选择:情境如何影响公民的选举中的抉择

九月虺
2012-03-08 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《公民、情境、选择:情境如何影响公民的选举中的抉择pdf》,可适用于人文社科领域

Citizens,Context,andChoiceVolumesofaCollaborativeResearchProgramAmongElectionStudyTeamsfromAroundtheWorldSerieseditors:HansDieterKlingemannandIanMcAllisterTheComparativeStudyofElectoralSystems(CSES)isacollaborativeprogramofresearchamongelectionstudyteamsfromaroundtheworldParticipatingcountriesincludeacommonmoduleofsurveyquestionsintheirpostelectionstudiesTheresultingdataaredepositedalongwithvoting,demographic,district,andmacrovariablesThestudiesarethenmergedintoasingle,free,publicdatasetforuseincomparativestudyandcrosslevelanalysisThesetofvolumesinthisseriesisbasedontheseCSESmodules,andthevolumesaddressthekeytheoreticalissuesandempiricaldebatesinthestudyofelectionsandrepresentativedemocracySomeofthevolumeswillbeorganizedaroundthetheoreticalissuesraisedbyaparticularmodule,whileotherswillbethematicintheirfocusTakentogether,thesevolumeswillprovidearigorousandongoingcontributiontounderstandingtheexpansionandconsolidationofdemocracyinthetwentyfirstcenturyFurtherinformationonCSESactivitiescanbeobtainedfrom:CSESSecretariatCenterforPoliticalStudiesInstituteforSocialResearchTheUniversityofMichiganThompsonStreetAnnArbor,MichiganUSACSESwebsite:http:wwwcsesorgCitizens,Context,andChoiceHowContextShapesCitizens’ElectoralChoicesEditedbyRussellJDaltonandChristopherJAndersonGreatClarendonStreet,OxfordOXDPOxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxfordItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship,andeducationbypublishingworldwideinOxfordNewYorkAucklandCapeTownDaresSalaamHongKongKarachiKualaLumpurMadridMelbourneMexicoCityNairobiNewDelhiShanghaiTaipeiTorontoWithofficesinArgentinaAustriaBrazilChileCzechRepublicFranceGreeceGuatemalaHungaryItalyJapanPolandPortugalSingaporeSouthKoreaSwitzerlandThailandTurkeyUkraineVietnamOxfordisaregisteredtrademarkofOxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountriesPublishedintheUnitedStatesbyOxfordUniversityPressInc,NewYork#TheseveralcontributorsThemoralrightsoftheauthorhavebeenassertedDatabaserightOxfordUniversityPress(maker)FirstpublishedAllrightsreservedNopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthepriorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermittedbylaw,orundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographicsrightsorganizationEnquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeoftheaboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,attheaddressaboveYoumustnotcirculatethisbookinanyotherbindingorcoverandyoumustimposethesameconditiononanyacquirerBritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationDataDataavailableLibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationDataDataavailableTypesetbySPIPublisherServices,Pondicherry,IndiaPrintedinGreatBritainonacidfreepaperbyMPGBooksGroup,BodminandKing’sLynnISBN––––ToHansDieterKlingemannAmentor,colleague,andfriend–andasthanksfromusallforyourmanycontributionstothefieldSeriesEditors’PrefaceFewtopicsgenerateasmuchinterestamongobserversandpractitionersofpoliticsasthequalityofthedemocraticprocessTherelentlessexpansionofdemocracyduringthetwentiethcentury,whichacceleratedrapidlyafterthecollapseofcommunismin,hasmeantthatamajorityoftheworld’scountriesarenowelectoraldemocraciesButnotalldemocraciescanbeconsideredequaltheydifferwidelyintermsofinstitutionalarrangementsandpracticesandinthelevelsofpublicsupportthattheyattractItisthepublic’ssupportfordemocracythattheComparativeStudyofElectoralSystems(CSES)projectisdesignedtoinvestigateThisvolumeseriespresentsthekeyfindingsfromthismajorresearchprojectthatcommencedinThefirstCSESvolume,editedbyHansDieterKlingemann,hasdocumentedmuchofthehistoricalgroundwork,thebasicprinciplesofdatacollection,andprovidedsamplechaptersshowingmanyoftheanalyticalpossibilitiesofthisuniquedatasetThisvolumeisbasedonthefirstmoduleofsurveyquestionsintheCSES,completedin,whichexaminestheperformanceofdemocracy,theextentofsocialcleavages,andattitudestopoliticalparties,politicalinstitutions,andthedemocraticprocessgenerallyAswiththefirstvolume,thissecondvolume,editedbyRussellJDaltonandChristopherJAnderson,addressesthefundamentalquestionofwhethertheinstitutionalstructureofelectionsaffectsthenatureofthepublic’schoicesHowever,unlikethefirstvolume,thissecondvolumesystematicallyaddressestwomajorquestionsThefirstquestionlooksatexplanationsofturnout,andhowinstitutionsstructurethelikelihoodofvotingThesecondquestiondiscussesdeterminantsofindividualelectoralbehaviorandexaminestheroleofinstitutionsinshapingwhatkindsofpoliticalinformationvotersacquireThesearekeyquestionsforextendingourunderstandingofindividualcitizenbehaviorMoststudiesofvotinghavebeenbasedonsinglecountrystudies,oftencoveringasingleelectionBycomparingawiderangeofcountries,forthefirsttimetheCSESprojectenablestheinstitutionalvienvironmenttobebroughtintotheequation,enhancingourunderstandingofthecomplexrelationshipbetweenindividualchoiceandinstitutionalcontextIndeed,asDaltonandAndersonpointout,suchanalyseswereimpossibleuntiltheCSESwasestablishedThecurrentvolumeisbasedonthesecondmoduleoftheCSES,completedin,whichexaminesaccountabilityandrepresentationAthirdvolume,editedbyJacquesThomassen,tofollowsoon,issettoinquireintothenatureofpoliticalrepresentationandaccountabilityandwillalsousethesecondCSESmoduleFutureplannedvolumesintheseries,usingthesecondandthirdmodulesaswellasthecombineddataseriesstretchingovertwodecades,willexamineamongothertopicselectoralchoicesandinstitutions,globalization,andgenderandpoliticalbehaviorAlloftheCSESdataarefreelyavailableandcanbedownloadedfromourwebsite(http:wwwcsesorg)HansDieterKlingemannIanMcAllisterSeriesEditorsSeriesEditors’PrefaceviiPrefaceOneofthefundamentalquestionsincomparativeelectoralstudiesiswhethertheinstitutionalstructureofelectionsaffectsthenatureofthepublic’schoices–whethertoparticipate,whichpartytoselect,andtherelativeweightofdifferentfactorsinfluencingvoterchoiceScholarshavelongdebatedtheimpactoffactorssuchasmajoritarianversusproportionalelectoralsystems,ballotformats,orthenumberofpartiesonthepublic’svotingbehaviorIfdemocracyistoberepresentative,docertaininstitutionalstructuresfacilitaterepresentationIfdemocracyrequiresaccountability,docertainstructuresincreaseordecreaseaccountabilityWhichaspectsoftheinstitutionalcontexthavethegreatesteffectonvoterchoiceAndwhatarethemechanismsbywhichcontextualfactorsaffectindividualelectoralbehaviorInshort,doesanation’sinstitutionalstructuresignificantlyinfluencehowdemocracyworksthroughtheelectoralprocessThesearethetheoreticalquestionsweaddressinthisvolumeThereisarichliteraturetheorizingonhowtheinstitutionalcontextshapeselectoralbehavior,butpreviousresearchhasnotbeenabletobridgetwodistinctresearchtraditionsFirst,severalaggregatelevelcomparativestudiesdescribetheinstitutionalfeaturesofelectionsandexamineaggregatenationalpatterns,suchashowvotesaretranslatedintoseats,orhowcontextualfactorsaffectlevelsofturnoutSecond,anevenmorevoluminousliteratureanalyzesthesourcesofindividualelectoralbehavior,butoftenwithoutexaminingcontextbecausethisresearchisbasedonasinglenation(wherecontextwasrelativelyconstant)orasmallsetofestablisheddemocraciesThisvolumerepresentsthemergerofthesetworesearchtraditionstostudyhowinstitutionalcontextpotentiallyaffectsindividualelectoralbehaviorThisispossibleonlybecauseofthedevelopmentoftheComparativeStudyofElectoralSystems(CSES)projectTheCSESprojectrecognizedthatresearchersneededcomparableelectionstudydataonindividualvotersfromalargeanddiversesetofdemocraciesinordertoexaminetheimpactofelectoralsystemsonthechoicescitizensmakeBybroadeningviiiouranalysestothelargeanddiversesetofdemocraciesrepresentedintheCSES,thiscollectionoffersthemostdefinitivestudyofpartyandelectoralsystemconsequencesthathasyetbeenassembledOurempiricalanalysesarepossibleonlybecauseoftheCSES–andtheresearchpresentedhererepresentstheraisond’eˆtreoftheCSESAsitturnsout,manyofourfindingsruncountertoprevioustheorizingandempiricalfindingsWefindthatcontextmatters,butincomplexandoftencontingentwaysForinstance,thenatureoftheelectoralsystemintheformofproportionalrepresentationofsinglememberdistrictsystemsortheeffectivenumberofpartiesoftenmatterslessthantheideologicalchoicesofferedbypartiesAndratherthandirectlyaffectingoutcomes,contextualeffectsmostlyworkbystrengtheningorweakeningtheindividuallevelcorrelatesofpoliticalbehaviorWealsodemonstrateatensionbetweencontextsthatencourageclearvotingchoiceandrepresentationversusaclosermatchbetweenvoterpreferencesandtheelectedgovernmentInpart,ourrelianceontheCSESledustodedicatethisvolumetoHansDieterKlingemannHansDieterwasoneofthefourscholarswhodraftedtheoriginalresearchplanforCSES(alongwithJohnCurtice,StevenRosenstone,andJacquesThomassen)HealsohostedseveralearlyplanningmeetingfortheCSESattheWissenschaftszentrumBerlin,andeditedtheinitialCSESvolume,TheComparativeStudyofElectoralSystems(OxfordUniversityPress,)ThisCSESnetworknownumbersdozensanddozensofscholarsinthevariousnationalelectionstudiesWeareindebtedtoalltheseelectionstudyinvestigators(seewwwcsesorgforthefulllist)andindedicatingthisvolumetoHansDieter,wealsowanttothankallthosescholarswhocontributedtotheCSESprojectovertheyearsInaddition,wewanttorecognizeHansDieter’spersonalcontributionstothestudyofcitizensinthedemocraticprocessHiscareerspanstheemergenceofempiricalelectoralresearchinGermanyandEurope,fromthelandmarkGermanElectionStudytoalongseriesofGermanandcrossnationalelectoralandpartyresearchprojectsHehelpedtodeveloparangeofprojectsthatdramaticallyadvancedempiricalelectoralresearch,andhasalwaysbeengenerousinsharingthesedata,hisadvice,andexperienceThisvolume’sdedicationisacollectivethankyouforwhatHansDieterhascontributedtoourfield,andexpressesourpersonalthanksforhiscontinuingfriendshipandsupportAseditors,wealsowanttothankalltheauthorsinthisvolumefortheircontributionsWeassembledaninternationalteamoftopscholarstoaddressthetopicsofthisvolume,andeachproducedamajorcontributionPrefaceixtotheliteratureandtoleratedoureditorialadviceTheMarioEinaudiCenterforInternationalStudiesandtheCornellInstituteforEuropeanStudies(CIES)atCornellUniversityandtheCenterfortheStudyofDemocracy(CSD)attheUniversityofCalifornia,IrvineprovidedfinancialandinstitutionalsupportforthisvolumeCIESalsohostedaresearchconferencewherecontributorspresentedtheirinitialfindingsandwedevelopedouranalysesOurthanksgotoSydneyvanMorgan,CindyGreco,andLianeO’BrienfortheirhelpinpullingtheconferencetogetherYuliyaTverdova,Sı´lviaMendes,GrigorePopEleches,RyanShirah,BenThomas,andIsraelWaismelManorassistedwithdatapreparationandanalysisNatalieCookassistedinthepreparationofthemanuscriptTheOxfordUniversityPressreviewersandReinTaageperaprovidedveryhelpfuladviceonimprovingouranalysesandinterpretationWillyJoudevelopedtheindexforthisvolumeAseditorsoftheCSESseriesatOxfordUniversityPress,IanMcAllisterandHansDieterKlingemannprovidedvaluableadviceindevelopingthisprojectDominicByattandthewonderfulteamatOxfordUniversityPressprovidedthesupportthatwethankfullyappreciatedIntheend,ourfindingsindicatethattherearesubstantialcommonalitiesinelectoralbehavioracrossnations,butthatinstitutionalcontextalsomattersinpredictablewaysTheimpactofinstitutionalcontextisrichandcomplexManyofthecontextualfactorsstressedinearlierscholarshipactuallyhavealimitedeffectonindividualelectoralchoice,butothercontextualvariableshavesignificanteffectsMoreover,thereisnosingle,simpleanswertothequestionofhowandhowmuchinstitutionsmatterContextualinfluencesthathavebeneficialeffectsinoneareamayhavelessdesirableeffectsinotherareasHowever,bytracingoutthesecomplexrelationships,thisstudyadvancesourunderstandingofhownationsmightdesignelectoralinstitutionstoimprovethedemocraticprocessTheCSESisanimportantinternationalresearchvehicleforextendingourunderstandingofthecommonalitiesanddifferencesamongdemocraticpublicsandthusanindispensabletoolforunderstandinghowcitizensmakeelectoraldemocracyworkRussellDaltonIrvine,CaliforniaChristopherJAndersonIthaca,NewYorkPrefacexContentsListofFiguresxiiiListofTablesxvAuthorBiographiesxviiIntroductionCitizens,Context,andChoiceRussellJDaltonandChristopherJAndersonPartIElectoralParticipationElectoralSupplyandVoterTurnoutMikiCaulKittilsonandChristopherJAndersonTheInfluenceofPartyandElectoralSystemsonCampaignEngagementJeffreyAKarpandSusanABanducciPartIIElectoralChoiceTheRoleofPartyPolicyPositionsintheOperationofDemocracyRobinEBestandMichaelDMcDonaldLeft–RightOrientations,Context,andVotingChoicesRussellJDaltonFollowthePartyorFollowtheLeaderCandidateEvaluations,PartyEvaluations,andMacropoliticalContextYuliyaVTverdovaContext,PoliticalInformation,andPerformanceVotingTimothyHellwigxiStrategicDefectionAcrossElections,Parties,andVotersAndre´BlaisandThomasGschwendPartIIIElectoralChoiceandRepresentationPartyPolarizationandtheIdeologicalCongruenceofGovernmentsGBinghamPowell,JrElectoralSupply,MedianVoters,andFeelingsofRepresentationinDemocraciesChristopherJAndersonConclusionNestedVoters:CitizenChoicesEmbeddedinPoliticalContextsChristopherJAndersonandRussellJDaltonAppendix:MacroLevelDataMatiasBargsted,SteffenBlings,ChristopherJAnderson,andRussellJDaltonBibliographyIndexContentsxiiListofFiguresFigureEffectivenumberofpartiesandpartysystempolarizationFigurePartysystemageandpressfreedomFigureModelsofelectoralsupply,individualorientations,andmobilizationandvoterparticipationFigureEffectsofpolarizationandfaithinvotingonvoterparticipationFigureEffectsofpartysystemstabilityandfaithinvotingonvoterparticipationFigureEffectofpolarizationandbeliefwhoisinpowermakesadifferenceinvoterparticipationFigureEffectofpartysystemstabilityandbeliefwhoisinpowermakesadifferenceinvoterparticipationFigureElectoralsupplyandcampaignactivity:directandinterveningrelationshipsFigureElectoralsupplyandcampaignactivity:conditionaleffectsFigurePartysystempolarizationandstrengthofpreferenceFigurePartysystempolarizationandpartycontactFigureConditionalimpactofpolarizationandstrengthofpartisanpreferencesonprobabilityofpersuadingothersFigureHistogramoftheeffectivenumberofelectoralpartiesFigureaLocationsofpartiesandmedianvotersinlongstandingdemocraciesFigurebLocationsofpartiesandmedianvotersinnewerdemocraciesFigureTherelationshipbetweenpartysystempolarizationandLeft–RightvotingFigureTherelationshipbetweencandidateandpartybasedvotingFigureTheoreticalframeworkofhowcontextandinformationconditionvotechoicexiiiFigureTheconcentrationofadministrativeresponsibilityandpartysystempolarizationFigureConditionaleffectsofpoliticalcontextonperformancevotingFigureImpactofpartystrengthbydisproportionalityFigurePartysystempolarizationandgovernmentdistanceListofFiguresxivListofTablesTableNationalelectionsincludedintheCSESTableDiversityofchoiceinpartysystemsTableDevelopmentofthepoliticalandpartysystemsTableGovernmentcharacteristicsaffectingelectoralsupplyTableGapsinvoterparticipation,bycountryTableVariancedecompositioninelectoralparticipationTableDirecteffectsofelectoralsupplyonvoterturnoutTableIndirecteffectsofelectoralsupplyonexternalefficacyTableContingenteffectsofsupplyandefficacyonparticipationTableCampaignactivitiesbycountryTableContextualcorrelatesofcampaignactivityTableModelpredictinginterveningvariablesforcampaignactivityTableExplainingcampaignactivityTableThedistributionofvoterselfplacementsalongtheLeft–RightdimensionTableRelationshipsanddifferencesbetweenvoterandexpertpartyplacementsTableMediancitizens,medianvoters,andthehypotheticalmedianandpluralitypartiesassumingpolicydeterministicvotersTablePercentageofpolicydeterministicandpolicyconsciousvotesTableThestrengthofLeft–RightlegislativevotingbynationTableContextualcorrelatesofthestrengthofLeft–RightvotingTableThecorrelationbetweenLeft–RightorientationsandLeft–RightvotechoiceTableMultilevelanalysesofLeft–RightvotingchoiceTableLeft–RightvotingchoiceinlowandhighpolarizationcontextsTableFeelingsofrepresentationandpartisanidentificationxvTableConsistencyinvoter’sfeelingsofrepresentationandpartisanidentificationTableFeelingsofrepresentationbypolitycharacteristicsTablePredictingcoefficientsforcandidatecenteredandpartisanvotingTablePredictingcoefficientsforcandidatecenteredandpartisanvotinginoldandnewdemocraciesTableMultilevelmodelofeffectofpoliticalcontextonincumbentvotechoiceTableThesizeoftheperformancevoteinfourpoliticalcontextsTableMultilevelmodelofeffectofpoliticalcontextonpoliticalinformationTableMultilevelmodelof

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公民、情境、选择:情境如何影响公民的选举中的抉择

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