首页 [经济学人2005].The.Economist.-.2005-09-17.pdf

[经济学人2005].The.Economist.-.2005-09-17.pdf

[经济学人2005].The.Economist.-.2005…

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SEARCHadvancedsearchEconomistcomRESEARCHTOOLSChoosearesearchtoolASubscribeMondayDecemberth=requiressubscriptionLOGIN:EmailaddressPasswordRemembermegfedcONLINEFEATURESPRINTEDITIONFullcontentsEnlargecurrentcoverPastissuesregionalcoversGLOBALAGENDAPOLITICSTHISWEEKBUSINESSTHISWEEKOPINIONLeadersLettersWORLDUnitedStatesTheAmericasAsiaMiddleEastAfricaEuropeBritainCountryBriefingsCitiesGuideSURVEYSBUSINESSManagementReadingBusinessEducationExecutiveDialogueFINANCEECONOMICSEconomicsFocusEconomicsAZSCIENCETECHNOLOGYTechnologyQuarterlyPEOPLEObituaryBOOKSARTSCatchifyoucanStyleGuideMARKETSDATAWeeklyIndicatorsCurrenciesBigMacIndexDIVERSIONSRESEARCHTOOLSCLASSIFIEDSDELIVERYOPTIONSEmailNewslettersMobileEditionRSSFeedsEconomistIntelligenceUnitEconomistConferencesTheWorldInIntelligentLifeCFORollCallCitiesGuideCountryBriefingsAudiointerviewsClassifiedsPrintEditionPoliticsthisweekBusinessthisweekTelecomsandtheinternetHowtheinternetkilledthephonebusinessJapan'selectionAveryJapaneserevolutionPovertyinLatinAmericaNotalwayswithusHurricaneKatrinaWhoaaahGermany'selectionTimeforachangeOnGermany'selection,AIDS,Uzbekistan,China,KentuckyFriedChicken,electronichomesJapan'selectionKoizumigetshiswayHurricaneKatrinaNowtherebuildingbeginsNewOrleansOnthemend,butchangedforeverCalifornia'sprecautionsGettingreadyfortheBigOneTheWeeklyStandardTheneoconbibleTheRobertshearingsPerfectPeterSex,drugsandtheruralpoorAMontananparableUnitedNationsreformBetterthannothingLexingtonTheicestormCorrection:HawaiiPovertyinLatinAmericaNewthinkingaboutanoldproblemChileDemocraticatlastPeru'stradePortsinastormAfghanistanAglasshalffullNewZealandNosetonoseHowtheinternetkilledthephonebusinessAlmostfreeinternetphonecallsheraldtheslowdeathoftraditionaltelephony…Moreonthisweek'sleadarticleTheworldthisweekLeadersLettersSpecialReportUnitedStatesTheAmericasAsiaInsidethisquarterlyAndnow,thewarforecastMONITORWatchthisspaceMONITORMashingthewebMONITORSailingshipswithanewtwistMONITORThedoctorinyourpocketMONITORSummercampforcodersMONITORHeldaloftbyhydrogenMONITORAnewwaytostopdigitaldecayMONITORThepolicemanonyourdashboardMONITORHearnoevilMONITORBuildingabetterbatteryMONITORNojamtomorrowMONITORWebsitesofmassdescriptionRATIONALCONSUMERGaming'snextlevelREPORTSAndnow,thewarforecastREPORTSThemarchoftherobotradersCASEHISTORYBetterbydesignREPORTSDeathtofolders!REPORTSJustwhatthepatientorderedBRAINSCANMedicinewithoutfrontiersAmerica'sairlinesFlyingonemptyHertzChanginggearDowJonesPaperchaseOracleandSiebelTheGodfatherTurkeyFlockingtotheBosporusPreviousprinteditionsSepthSeprdAugthAugthAugthMoreprinteditionsandcoversSubscribeSubscribetothepOrbuyaWebsubfullaccessonlineRSSfeedsReceivethispageTechnologyQuarterlyBusinessEuropeanVoiceEconomistDiariesandBusinessGiftsAdvertisementTakingtheMickeyIndiaandAmericaForus,oragainstusAngolaThelongroadtorecoveryIraqviolenceButcheryinBaghdadIranOnarollIran'sheritageCyrustheDisputedPalestinianpoliticsNocommandandlesscontrolGermany'selectionThebattleofthechancellorshipNorway'selectionBacktotheleftUkraine'spoliticalcrisisAndthentheywokeupPetrolpricesPumpedupItalianpoliticsElectoralgamesSpain'sbuildingboomCostadelconcreteCharlemagneWhentotalkTurkeyElectricityThepowertochangePubdesignReturnoftheginpalaceBosses'paySink,orswiminchampagneRiotsinNorthernIrelandBoilingoverMonitoringhealthcareRetailtherapyPublicsectorpensionsTacklingthebloatAcademicspondercelebrityDeconstructingMrBeckhamBagehotTryingharderArticlesflaggedwiththisiconareprintedonlyintheBritisheditionofTheEconomistMiddleEastAfricaEuropeBritainPanEuropeancompaniesLimitedappealRealityTVinChinaThesorcerer'sapprenticeFacevalueTheresurrectionofSteveJobsTelecomsandtheinternetThemeaningoffreespeechInsurersandHurricaneKatrinaAssessingthedamageItalianbanksCapitulationTheWorldBank's“DoingBusiness”reportUnblockingbusinessTheOECDonChina'seconomyAmodelofreformPropertyderivativesFearofflyingEconomicsfocusAsiansquirrelsHurricanesStormsurgeEcosystemservicesGreeningthebooksAbolishingaddictionBrainwashingElectroconvulsivetherapyShockingtreatmentArtfromRussiaThebighaulAmerica'slegalsystemDivideandruleGoogleBigandbiggerFictioninFranceBleakchicChinesebooksLupineluckObituaryEugeniaCharlesOverviewOutput,demandandjobsPricesandwagesInternationaleducationMoneyandinterestratesTheEconomistcommoditypriceindexStockmarketsTrade,exchangeratesandbudgetsTheEconomistfoodindexOverviewHumanDevelopmentIndexSpecialReportFinanceEconomicsScienceTechnologyBooksArtsObituaryEconomicandFinancialIndicatorsEmergingMarketIndicatorsPoliticsthisweekSepthFromTheEconomistprinteditionJapan'selectionJapan'sLiberalDemocraticPartywasreturnedtopowerwithasharplyincreasedmajorityJunichiroKoizumi,theprimeminister,hadcalledasnapelectionandpurgedhispartyafterhisplanstoprivatiseJapanPostwereblockedbyrebelsTheleaderoftheoppositionDemocraticPartyofJapanresignedSeearticleAfreshroundofsixcountrytalksonNorthKorea'snuclearweaponsopenedinBeijingAmerica'sleadnegotiatorcomplainedoflittleprogressInAfghanistan,theTalibanwereblamedforthekillingofsevenpeopledeliveringvoterregistrationpapersinthecentralprovinceofUruzgan,justdaysaheadofparliamentaryandprovincialelectionsonSeptemberthSeearticleManmohanSinghandPervezMusharraf,respectivelytheprimeministerofIndiaandthepresidentofPakistan,metinNewYorkHopesofabreakthroughweredashedbutMrSinghdidpromisetovisitPakistanBailingoutMorethantwoweeksafterHurricaneKatrina,theclearupinNewOrleansbeganinearnestAsauthoritiesscaledbacktheirestimateoftheregion'sdeathtoll,GeorgeBushpaidtwovisitstothedelugedcity(hehadpreviouslyvisitedtheGulfcoastregion)toviewtheoperationsMichaelBrownresignedasheadofthemuchcriticisedFederalEmergencyManagementAgencySeearticleTheSenatehelditsconfirmationhearingsforJohnRobertstobechiefjusticeoftheSupremeCourtFollowingthescript,DemocratsquizzedhimonhisattitudetowardsabortionandcivilrightsSeearticleTheMassachusettslegislaturevotedagainstaproposedstateconstitutionalamendmentthatwouldbangaymarriage,whichislegalinthestatebecauseofacourtrulingThemeasurenowlooksunlikelytobeputtotheelectoratenextyearAPFernandoFerrerwontheDemocraticprimaryinNewYork'smayoralelection,afterthesecondplacedcandidatewithdrewtoavoidadivisiverunoffMrFerrercouldbecomethecity'sfirstLatinomayorifhebeatsMichaelBloomberginNovemberWorldleadersmeetinginNewYorkwereduetoendorseapagedeclarationonoverhaulingtheUnitedNationsandprogresstowardstacklingworldpovertyAlthoughgreatlywatereddownincomparisonwithearlierdrafts,thefinaldocumentwasdescribedbybothKofiAnnan,theUNsecretarygeneral,andMrBushasanimportant“firststep”alongtheroadtoreformOthersweremoredubiousSeearticlePayingthebillInBrazil,oppositionpartiesbeganproceedingstoexpelSeverinoCavalcanti,theleaderofthelowerhouseofCongressHeisaccusedofextortingpaymentsfromaconcessionairewhoranrestaurantsintheCongressbuildingAnunrelatedcampaignfinancescandalinvolvingtheWorkers'PartycontinuestoerodethepopularityofthegovernmentSuez,aFrenchutility,saiditwouldwithdrawfromArgentina,whereitheldofalargewatercompany,afterfailingtoreachagreementwiththegovernmentoveranincreaseintariffs,whichhavebeenfrozensinceInCanada,Ontario'sgovernmentsaidthatitwouldnotallowMuslimstousesharialawtosettlefamilydisputesinstead,itwillmovetooutlawreligioustribunalsusedbyChristiansandJewsChile'sSupremeCourtruledthatGeneralAugustoPinochetcanfaceathirdsetofhumanrightscharges,thoughheislikelytoescapetrialonhealthgroundsTheGuardian,aBritishnewspaper,claimedthatBAESystemspaidtheformerdictatormorethanm($m)fromtoSeearticleUpforgrabsTheopinionpollscontinuedtonarrowdaysaheadofGermany'selectionMostnowsuggestthattheoppositionwillnotwinanoverallmajority,makingthelikeliestoutcomea“grandcoalition”betweenthemaincentrerightandcentreleftpartiesSeearticleNorwayvotedthecentreleftintoofficeinageneralelectionJensStoltenberg,leaderoftheLabourParty,willnowformagovernment,oustingthecentrerightgovernmentofKjellMagneBondevikSeearticleTheEuropeanCourtofJusticeruledthattheEuropeanCommissioncould,insomecircumstances,imposecriminalpenaltiesonthosewhofloutEuropeanUnionlawsTherulingwasopposedbymanynationalgovernments,whicharguedthatthecriminallawshouldneverfallwithinEUpowersNorthernIrelandwitnesseditsworseriotsforyearsafteraparadebytheOrangeOrderwasreroutedtoavoidaCatholicneighbourhoodAroundpoliceofficerswerehurtintheensuingviolenceTheprovince'stoppolicemansaidtheOrderandloyalistparamilitarieshadinstigatedthetroubletheyblamethepoliceSeearticleEuropeanfinanceministersvowedtostandtogetheragainstfuelpriceprotesterswhoaredemandingcutsinpetroltaxesButseveralcountriespromptlyofferedsubsidiesandtaxrebatestofavouredpressuregroupsSeearticleThecarnagecontinuesInoneofthedeadliestdaysinIraqsincetheAmericanledinvasionin,atleastpeoplewerekilledandhundredsmoreinjuredinaseriesofbombattacksandshootingsonSeptemberthIntheworstincident,asuicidebomberblewuphiscarinthemidstofhundredsoflabourers,killingatleastAlQaedainIraqclaimedresponsibilityforthemayhemSeearticleHosniMubarakwonwhatwasbilledasEgypt'sfirstcompetitivepresidentialelectionwithofthevoteHismainrivalintherace,AymanNour,wonjustandcriedfoulEvenmorestrikingly,onlyoftheelectoratebotheredtovoteTherewereanarchicscenesintheGazastripasthelastIsraelisoldiersleftFormerIsraelisettlementswerelootedandasynagoguewasburnedtothegroundPalestinianleaderMahmoudAbbascondemnedthe“armedchaos”SeearticleInoilrichNigeria,thousandsofpeopletooktothestreetsinthecityofLagostoprotestagainstariseofinfuelcostsduetocutsingovernmentsubsidiesSomaligunmenwhohijackedaUNshipoffthecoastofSomaliacarryingrelieffoodtotsunamivictimsreleasedtheshipandcrewafterholdingthemforweeksGettyImagesCopyrightTheEconomistNewspaperandTheEconomistGroupAllrightsreservedBusinessthisweekSepthFromTheEconomistprinteditionFlyingonemptyDeltaAirLinesandNorthwestAirlinesfiledforbankruptcyprotectionBothcompanies,likeotherlargeAmericanairlines,arecontendingwithcutthroatcompetitionfromlowcostcarriers,theburgeoningcostsofworkers'benefitschemesandasharpriseinthecostofjetfuelDeltahaslost$billionsinceandNorthwest'smechanicsarecurrentlyonstrikeSeearticleFordagreedtosellHertz,itscarrentalsubsidiary,toaconsortiumofthreeprivateequityfirmsfor$billion(includingdebt,thetransactionisworth$billion)LastJune,thecarmakerfiledpaperstofloatHertzonthestockmarket,butanumberofbuyoutspecialistsexpressedastronginterestinbuyingitdirectlyinsteadThesaleprovidessomemuchneededliquidityforForditscreditratingwasdowngradedto“junk”statusearlierthisyearSeearticleEBayconfirmedthatitwasbuyingSkype,aleadingprovideroffreephonecallsovertheinternetThedealisinitiallyworth$billion,butcouldriseto$billionbyifperformancetargetsaremetLuxembourgbasedSkypehasexcitedanalysts,whothinkitwilltransformthetelecomsindustrySeearticleOracleannouncedanotherlargeacquisitionItisbuyingSiebelSystems,arivalbusinesssoftwarecompany,inadealvaluedat$billionSiebelisOracle'sbiggesttakeoversinceitsrecentcontentiousmergerwithPeopleSoftSeearticleAjudgeruledthataformerexecutiveatMicrosoft,KaiFuLee,coulddosome,butnotall,ofthedevelopmentworkinChinaaskedbyhisnewemployerGoogleMicrosoftsaysMrLeeknowstoomuchaboutitsstrategyinChina,buturgedGoogletoacceptthedecisionThecasehashighlightedtheboundariesthatfirmscanplaceonformeremployeesNotexactlyalazysummerLehmanBrotherssaidnetincomeforthethreemonthsendingAuguststhadrisenby,comparedwithayearearlier,to$mOtherbigWallStreetinvestmentbanksareexpectedtofollowLehman'sleadandpostequallystartlingquarterlyresultsWachoviaagreedtopay$billionforWestcorp,afinancialservicesholdingcompany(thedealincludesthestakeinWFSFinancial,acarloancompany,thatWestcorpdoesnotalreadyown)America'sfourthlargestbankwilldoubleitscarfinancingbusiness,andalsogainatoeholdinsouthernCalifornia'sretailbankingmarketanotherWestcorpsubsidiaryisWesternFinancialBankDeutscheBörseaskedRetoFrancioni,chairmanofSWXGroup,whichrunstheSwissstockexchange,tobeitsnewchiefexecutiveTheGermanfinancialexchangegrouphasbeenseekinganewbosssinceMay,whenWernerSeifertwasoustedbyshareholdersdissatisfiedwithabidfortheLondonStockExchangeBancaPopolareItalianasaidthatithadapprovedthesaleofitsstakeinBancaAntonvenetatoABNAmro,oftheNetherlandsThesalewouldsealthefirstsignificantforeigntakeoverofanItalianbank,andendacontroversialbattlethathaslastedseveralmonthsSeearticleIthinkIcahnCarlIcahnputmorepressureonTimeWarnerTheinvestor,wholastmonthrevealedthatheandthreepartnershadbuiltastakeinthecompany,saidhewouldmountaproxyfighttowinseatsonTimeWarner'sboardMrIcahn'sgroupwantsthemediagianttospinoffitscableTVunitandbuyback$billionworthofsharesinordertoboostitssharepriceVivendiUniversalreportedariseinnetincome,tobillion($billion),forthefirsthalfoftheyearcomparedwithayearearlierIn,themediagrouppostedFrance'sbiggesteverannualcorporatelossbillionAustralia'sgovernmentovercamestrongoppositiontopasslegislationenablingthesaleofitsremainingstakeinTelstra,thecountry'slargesttelecomfirmWorthA$billion($billion)andexpectednextyear,itisthecountry'sbiggestprivatisationEnCana,aCanadianoilandgasproducer,saiditwassellingitsassetsinEcuadortoAndesPetroleum,aconsortiumofChineseenergyfirmsthatincludesChinaNationalPetroleumCorporation,for$billionThedealisfurtherdisappointmentforIndia'sOilandNaturalGasCorporation,whichwasalsointherunningforEnCanaLastmonth,CNPCpippedittobuyPetroKazakhstanPutitinperspectiveFollowingJunichiroKoizumi'selectionwin,Japan'sNikkeistockmarketindexreachedafouryearhigh(thoughthisisstillalongwayfromitspeakinlate)MarketswerealsobuoyedbyanupwardrevisiontoJapan'ssecondquarterGDPgrowth,whichstandsatanannualisedrateofSeearticleTelecomsandtheinternetHowtheinternetkilledthephonebusinessSepthFromTheEconomistprinteditionAlmostfreeinternetphonecallsheraldtheslowdeathoftraditionaltelephonyTHEterm“disruptivetechnology”ispopular,butiswidelymisusedItrefersnotsimplytoaclevernewtechnology,buttoonethatunderminesanexistingtechnologyandwhichthereforemakeslifeverydifficultforthemanybusinesseswhichdependontheexistingwayofdoingthingsTwentyyearsago,thepersonalcomputerwasaclassicexampleItsweptasideanoldermainframebasedstyleofcomputing,andeventuallybroughtIBM,oneoftheworld'smightiestfirmsatthetime,toitskneesThisweekhasbeenacomingoutpartyofsortsforanotherdisruptivetechnology,“voiceoverinternetprotocol”(VOIP),whichpromisestobeevenmoredisruptive,andofevengreaterbenefittoconsumers,thanpersonalcomputers(seearticle)VOIP'sleadingproponentisSkype,asmallfirmwhosesoftwareallowspeopletomakefreecallstootherSkypeusersovertheinternet,andverycheapcallstotraditionaltelephonesallofwhichspellstroubleforincumbenttelecomsoperatorsOnSeptemberth,eBay,theleadingonlineauctionhouse,announcedthatitwasbuyingSkypefor$billion,plusanadditional$billionifSkypehitscertainperformancetargetsincomingyearsThisseemsavastsumtopayforacompanythathasonly$minrevenuesandhasyettoturnaprofitYeteBaywasnottheonlycompanyinterestedinbuyingSkypeMicrosoft,Yahoo!,NewsCorporationandGooglewereallsaidtohavealsoconsideredtheideaPerhapseBay,ratherlikesomeoverexcitedbidderinoneofitsownauctions,haspaidtoomuchThecompanysaysitplanstouseSkype'stechnologytomakeiteasierforbuyersandsellerstocommunicate,andtooffernew“clicktocall”advertisements,butmanyanalystsarescepticalthateBayisthebestownerofSkypeWhateverthemeritsofthedeal,however,thefussoverSkypeinrecentweekshashighlightedthesignificanceofVOIP,andtheenormousthreatitposestoincumbenttelecomsoperatorsFortheriseofSkypeandotherVOIPservicesmeansnothinglessthanthedeathofthetraditionaltelephonebusiness,establishedoveracenturyagoSkypeismerelythemostvisiblemanifestationofadramaticshiftinthetelecomsindustry,asvoicecallingbecomesjustanotherdataservicedeliveredviahighspeedinternetconnectionsSkype,whichhasovermusers,hasreceivedthemostattention,butotherfirmsroutingcallspartiallyorentirelyovertheinternethavealsosignedupmillionsofcustomersApriceofzeroTheabilitytomakefreeoralmostfre

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