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State_and_Trends_Updated_June_2011.pdf

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简介:本文档为《State_and_Trends_Updated_June_2011pdf》,可适用于经济金融领域,主题内容包含WashingtonDC,JunestateandtrendsofthestateandtrendsoftheEnvironmentDepartme符等。

WashingtonDC,JunestateandtrendsofthestateandtrendsoftheEnvironmentDepartmentThisreportwaspreparedbyaWorldBankteamcomprisingofNicholasLinacre,AlexandreKossoyandPhilippeAmbrosi,withimportantcontributionsfromManelleAïtSahlia,VeroniqueBishop,BenoîtBosquet,ChristophedeGouvello,TaiseiMatsukiandMonaliRanade|StateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarketNewApproachfortheReportWiththegoalofprovidingacomprehensivediscussionoftheissuesthatmostaffectedthecarbonmarketin,theauthorsoflastyear’sreporthaverestructuredStateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarketforThereportstillprovidesanoverviewofthesizeandreachofthecarbonmarkets,aswellastheevolutionoftheKyotoflexibilitymechanisms,andofferspotentialsupplydemandscenariosforcomingyearsHowever,itnolongerincludesadetailedbreakdownofcarbontransactions,asinpreviousyearsInstead,thereportprovidesamoreindepthanalyticaldiscussionoftheregulationandpolicyissuesthatwillguidefuturecarbonmarketdevelopmentThefindingsandopinionsexpressedinthisreportarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthorsandshouldnotbecitedwithoutpermissionTheydonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheWorldBankGroup,itsExecutiveDirectors,thecountriestheyrepresentorofanyoftheparticipantsinthecarbonfundsorfacilitiesmanagedbytheWorldBankTheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthisworkThisreportisnotintendedtoformthebasisofaninvestmentdecisionTheboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshowninthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundariesSectionphotocredit:JanGolinskiUNFCCCSectionphotocredit:VeerIncorporatedSectionphotocredit:VeerIncorporatedSectionphotocredit:DreamstimeLLCSectionphotocredit:VeerIncorporatedDesign:StudioGrafikPrinting:WestlandPrinters|StateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarketStateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarket|AcknowledgementsThereportbenefittedgreatlyfromcolleaguesinthecarbonmarketwhoprovidedtheirwrittencontributionsandperspectives:OlgaChristyakova,MartinLawless,andDamienMeadowsWewishtoextendourgratitudetothosewhoofferedtheircooperationandinsightsduringtheelaborationofthisreport:EdwinAalders,SchwanBadirouGafari,EllysarBaroudy,JeanJacquesBarberis,FrançoisBeaurain,LucaBertali,AgnèsBiscaglia,MartinaBosi,AnaBucher,MarcosCastro,LanceCoogan,IsabelleCurien,KeithDavis,KarenDegouvedeNuncques,EduardoDopazo,JasonDunn,SašaEichberger,EmmanuelFages,LauraFidao,GregerFlodin,JamesFoster,JavierFreireColoma,MartinFrench,PranabGhosh,MatthewGray,PierreGuigon,IsabelHagbrink,KatherineHamilton,HenrikHasselknippe,CarinaHeimdal,AndrewHoward,RobertMHunt,DaigoKoga,WernerKornexl,GannaKorniyenko,BenoîtLeguet,GautierLeMaux,MarkLewis,ZijunLi,PeterLloyd,ThomasMarcello,AllisonMcManus,RachelMountain,AkikoNishimae,JohnO’Brien,KlausOppermann,MollyPetersStanley,VickyPollard,LeilaPourarkin,NeerajPrasad,BriceJMQuesnel,DavidRapin,HeikeReichelt,RenaudScardina,KaiUweBaraniSchmidt,GuidoSchmidtTraub,ChandraShekharSinha,TrevorSikorski,MiloSjardin,YvonSlingenberg,SaraStahl,AndyStone,AurelienTignol,SarahUnderwood,LaurentValiergue,JohnVirgoe,AlessandroVitelli,GeorgeWaldburg,XuemanWang,VikramWidge,YevgenYesyrkenov,PeterZapfel,IvanZelenko,ElizabethZelljadtWewouldalsoliketothankallofthosewhotooktimetorespondtothemarketsurveyWithoutyourresponsesthereportwouldbelessthanitisFinally,wewanttothankthemanymarketparticipantsstrugglingtomakeadifferenceonacriticalglobalissueTheStateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarketreceivedfinancialsupportfromtheCFAssistProgram,managedbytheWorldBankInstitute(WBI)|StateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarketListofAbbreviationsandAcronymsAAUAssignedAmountUnitAAUPAAAUPurchaseAgreementABGlobalWarmingSolutionsActofAssemblyBillACRAmericanCarbonRegistryADBAsianDevelopmentBankAfDBAfricanDevelopmentBankAMFAutoritédesMarchésFinanciersAWGKPAdHocWorkingGrouponFurtherCommitmentsforAnnexIPartiesundertheKyotoProtocolAWGLCAAdHocWorkingGrouponLongtermCollaborativeActionCAPEXCapitalExpendituresCARBCaliforniaAirResourcesBoardCARClimateActionReserveCCPcentralcounterpartiesCCSCarbonCaptureandStorageCCXChicagoClimateExchangeCDMCleanDevelopmentMechanismCERCertifiedEmissionReductionCFLCompactFluorescentLampCFTCCommoditiesFutureTradingCommissionCHMethaneCMMCoalMineMethaneCMPConferenceofthePartiesservingastheMeetingofthePartiestotheKyotoProtocolCPFCarbonPartnershipFacilityCOCarbonDioxideCOeCarbonDioxideEquivalentCOPConferenceofthePartiesCPACDMProgrammeActivityCPRSCarbonPollutionReductionSchemeCPFirstCommitmentPeriodundertheKyotoProtocolCRECommissionderégulationdel’énergieCRTClimateReserveTonneDNADesignatedNationalAuthorityDOEDesignatedOperationalEntityEBExecutiveBoardoftheCDMEBRDEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopmentECEuropeanCommissionECXEuropeanClimateExchangeEEEnergyEfficiencyEITEconomyinTransitionEITEEmissionintensive,TradeexposedEREmissionReductionERPAEmissionReductionPurchaseAgreementERUEmissionReductionUnitESCEnergySavingsCertificateESSEnergySavingsSchemeETSEmissionsTradingSchemeEUEuropeanUnionEUAEuropeanUnionAllowanceEUETSEuropeanUnionEmissionsTradingSchemeEURIBOREuroInterbankOfferedRateFSBFinancialStabilityBoardGDPGrossDomesticProductGGASNewSouthWalesGreenhouseGasReductionSchemeGHGGreenhouseGasGISGreenInvestmentSchemeHFCHydrochlorofluorocarbonIFCInternationalFinanceCorporationIEAInternationalEnergyAgencyIFIInternationalFinancialInstitutionIFRSInternationalFinancialReportingStandardIMFInternationalMonetaryFundIRRInternalRateofReturnJVETSJapanVoluntaryEmissionsTradingSchemeJIJointImplementationJISCJointImplementationSupervisoryCommitteeKMKyotoMechanismLBFRLawonBankingandFinancialRegulationLDCLeastDevelopedCountryLEDSLowEmissionDevelopmentStrategieslCERLongtermCertifiedEmissionReductionLFGLandfillGasLoALetterofApprovalLRETLargescaleRenewableEnergyTargetLULUCFLandUse,LandUseChangeandForestryMADMarketAbuseDirectiveMCCFMultilateralCarbonCreditFundMDBMultilateralDevelopmentBankMiFiDMarketsinFinancialInstrumentsDirectiveMOPMeetingofthePartiesMRETMandatoryRenewableEnergyTargetMRVMeasurement,ReportingandVerificationNAMANationallyAppropriateMitigationActionNCCPNationalClimateChangePolicyNDRCNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionNONitrousOxideNAPNationalAllocationPlanNPVNetPresentValueNZETSNewZealandEmissionsTradingSchemeNZUNewZealandUnitOECDOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopmentOTCOvertheCounterpCERPrimaryCertifiedEmissionReductionPDDProjectDesignDocumentPFCPerfluorocarbonPINProjectIdeaNotePMRPartnershipforMarketReadinessPoACDMProgrammeofActivities|StateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarketStateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarket|POIProofofIdentityPPProjectParticipantRDResearchandDevelopmentRERenewableEnergyRECRenewableEnergyCertificateREDDReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradationREDDExtendsREDDbyincludingsustainableforestmanagement,conservationofforests,andenhancementofcarbonsinksREMITRegulationonEnergyMarketsIntegrityandTransparencyRETRenewableEnergyTargetRGGIRegionalGreenhouseGasInitiativeRMURemovalUnitsCERSecondaryCertifiedEmissionReductionSCFStrategicClimateFundSEISustainableEnergyInitiativeSFSulfurHexafluorideSMESmallandMediumsizeEnterpriseSRESSmallscaleRenewableEnergySchemetCOTonofCarbonDioxidetCOeTonofCarbonDioxideEquivalenttCERTemporaryCertifiedEmissionReductionUNUnitedNationsUNEPUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeUNFCCCUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeVATValueaddedTaxVCSVoluntaryCarbonStandardVCUVerifiedCarbonUnitsVERVerifiedEmissionReductionWBWorldBankWCIWesternClimateInitiativeWTIWestTexasIntermediateWTOWorldTradeOrganization|StateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarketStateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarket|ContentsAcknowledgementsOverviewIntroductionInternationalDevelopmentsCancunConferenceandthePostEnvironmentImprovementstotheCleanDevelopmentMechanismandContinuingSupportforMarketMechanismsClimateFinanceandtheEstablishmentoftheGreenClimateFundRecognitionofDevelopingCountryContributionstoMitigationandaBetterRepresentationofForestryrelatedActivitiesBeyondCancunMarketPerceptionsConclusionsDomesticPolicyDevelopmentsAStoryofFragmentationAnnexICountriesNonAnnexICountriesLinkingEmissionsTradingSchemesConclusionsHowMarketParticipantsTransactRiskandRegulationTheChangingRegulatoryLandscapeTheImpactofFinancialMarketReformsOverthecounterMarketRegulationisComingDownthePikePrimaryIssuanceMarketEmissionAllowanceAuctionsSecondaryMarketsControllingRiskandEnsuringTransparencyandAccountabilityConclusionsCarbonandClimateFinanceKyotoMarketApostFacingLowDemandandLowSupplyCERsWhatDidorDidNotHappeninERUsWhatLiesAheadAAUsRespondingtotheLackofDemandVoluntaryMarketsMobilizingLowcarbonInvestmentBeyondCarbonRevenueStreamsNewAssetClassesComingtotheMarketREDDandREDDSustainableLandManagementAgriculturalSoilCarbonConclusionsOutlookDemandandSupplyBalanceDemandandSupplyBalanceThroughtoSovereignDemandPrivateSectorDemandSupplyThroughtoResidualDemandMtCOeWilltherebeEnoughEmissionReductionsGeneratedinDevelopingCountriesAfterConclusionsMethodologyAppendixAssumptionsforEstimatesofPotentialDemandforOffsetsfromnonAnnexICountriesGlossary|StateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarketBoxesBoxTheEuropeanUnion’sApproachtoInternationalCreditsBoxNorthAmericanOffsetPricesBoxBriefHistoryofCarbonMarketFraudintheEUETSBoxAPointofViewontheEUETSBoxVoluntaryMarketsFiguresFigureCarbonMarketataGlance,MarketValues,–FigureRespondentsViewsonaFutureMultilateralFrameworkFigureRGGIForecastEmissionsTablesTableCarbonMarketataGlance,MarketValues,–TableCurrentStateClimateChangePoliciesinAustraliaTableCurrentProvinceClimateChangePoliciesinCanadaTableEUETSPhaseIIAuctionsTableAviationDirectiveSummaryTableSomeExamplesofUKComplementaryMeasuresTableCurrentClimateChangePoliciesinJapanTableOffsetSupplyandDemandForecastforCalifornia’sCapandtradeTableCurrentUSStateandRegionalClimateChangePolicyinNorthAmericaTableCurrentTradingPlatformsinChinaTableVoluntaryMarketPricesandVolumesTableSupplyandDemandinPerspective–KyotoMarketBalance,–TablePotentialDemand,ContractedSupply,andResidualDemand,–TableScenariosofPotentialDemandforOffsetsGeneratedinnonAnnexICountries–(MtCOe)TableEstimatesofPotentialSupplyUndertheCDMandJIupto(MtCOe)|StateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarketStateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarket|OverviewHowLongCanaMarkeTBeinTranSiTionAfterfiveconsecutiveyearsofrobustgrowth,thetotalvalueoftheglobalcarbonmarketstalledat$billion(seeFigure),Sufferingfromthelackofpostregulatoryclarity,thevalueoftheprimaryCleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM)marketfellbydoubledigitsforthethirdyearinarow,endinglowerthanitwasin,thefirstyearoftheKyotoProtocolTheAssignedAmountUnit(AAU)market,whichgrewinwithstrongsovereignsupport,shrankaswellinFinally,themarketthathadgrownmostinallowancesundertheUSRegionalGreenhouseGasInitiative(RGGI)sawthatyear’sgainserasedinAsthesesegmentsdeclined,thedominanceoftheEuropeanUnionAllowances(EUAs)marketbecamemorepronouncedthaneverEUAsaccountedforpercentofglobalcarbonmarketvalueinWiththevalueofthesecondaryCDMtransactionstakenintoaccount,theshareofthecarbonmarketprimarilydrivenbytheEUEmissionsTradingScheme(EUETS)rosetopercent,dwarfingtheremainingsegmentsofthemarket(seeTable)SecondaryCDMOtherOffsetsPrimaryCDMOtherAllowancesEUETSAllowancesCarbonMarketEvolution($billion)FigureCarbonMarketataglance,MarketValues,–CarbonMarketEvolution,values($billion),–EUETSAllowancesOtherAllowancesPrimaryCDMSecondaryCDMOtherOffsetsTotalSources:WorldBank,ThomsonReutersPointCarbon,BloombergNewEnergyFinanceandEcosystemMarketplaceNote:NumbersmaynotaddupduetoroundingTableCarbonMarketataglance,MarketValues,–Sources:WorldBank,ThomsonReutersPointCarbon,BloombergNewEnergyFinance,andEcosystemMarketplaceFordetailsonthemethodologyrefertotheMethodologySectionattheendofthereportStill,carbonvolumestradedcontractedbyoverpercentduringthesameperiodaspricesdeclinedinsomemarkets|StateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarketTheglobalcarbonmarketstagnatedevenastheglobaleconomystabilizedandbeganatentativerecoveryinThecarbonmarketgrowthhaltedataparticularlyinopportunetime:provedtobethehottestonrecord,whileemissionlevelscontinuedtheirseeminglyinexorableriseIntheend,however,theyearmayberememberedmostforthepoliticalopportunitiesthatarose,yetwereultimatelyfailedtomaterializeIntheUnitedStates,therewasnotenoughsupporttopassfederalcapandtradelegislationTheJapaneseBasicActonGlobalWarming,whichpassedintheDiet’slowerhouse,washaltedwhenthegovernmentlostcontroloftheupperhouseafewmonthslaterAustralia’sSenatefailedtopasstheCarbonPollutionReductionSchemeandAustralia’sgovernmentsubsequentlychosetofreezeitsplansforadomesticcapandtradeschemeEventheyear’sraregoodnews,namelytheRepublicofKorea’sadoptionoftheFrameworkActonLowCarbonGreenGrowth,turnedsourwhenthegovernment,facinginternalopposition,decidedinearlytodelaytheimplementationofitscapandtradeschemeuntilAttheglobalregulatorylevel,inmidtheCDMExecutiveBoardtemporarilyhaltedissuanceofCertifiedEmissionReductions(CERs)fromhydrofluorocarbon(HFC)projectsoverbaselineconcernsAsconcernsrevealednottobesubstantiated,issuanceresumedattheendoftheyearNonetheless,theEuropeanCommissionsoonthereafterproposedqualitativerestrictionintheEUETSofcarbonoffsetsrelatedtoCDMindustrialgasprojectsTheproposalwasadoptedbytheEuropeanMemberStates,whichinJanuaryconfirmedthebanofCERsfromHFCandnitrousoxide(NO)adipicacidprojectsstarting,inSomeofthemostnotableeventsinandearlywereunfortunatelyrelatedtoframeworkloopholesandcriminalactivitiesdirectedagainsttheEUETSInadditiontothe“carousel”valueaddedtax(VAT)fraudthatsurfacedin,thelastmonthswitnessedthesaleofrecycledCERs,phishingattemptsonGermany’snationalregistriesandaseriesofsubsequentcybertheftsthatunderminedtheEuropeanmarket,highlightingsecurityshortcomingsandincreasingtheurgencyofstakeholders’pleastostrengtheninfrastructureNevertheless,therewereafewreasonsforguardedoptimisminEuropestartedtocraftitsroadmapformovingtowardacompetitivelowcarboneconomyinAlso,whiletheCopenhagenclimatesummitinfailedtomeetexpectations,progresswasachievedduringtheConferenceofthePartiesinCancunlastDecemberSuchprogresswaswelcomedbythemarketandhelpedtorestoresomeconfidenceinUNnegotiationsonclimatechangeStill,asPartiescontinuetheirdeliberations,muchremainstobedoneDifferencesamongmajoremittersregardingdomesticpriorities,approachesandambitionwillneedtoberesolvedbeforearobustandsustainableinternationalagreementcanemergeWhiletheinternationalregulatoryenvironmentremainsuncertain,nationalandlocalinitiativeshavenoticeablypickedupandmayofferthepotentialtocollectivelyovercometheinternationalregulatorygapThemostprominentoftheseinitiativesisCalifornia’scapandtradescheme,whichisexpectedtobeginoperatinginOtherlowcarboninitiatives,includingdomesticemissionreductiontargets,cleanenergycertificateprograms,voluntaryandprecompliancedomesticoffsettradingprograms,andcarbonexchanges,havegainedincreasingtractionindevelopingeconomiessuchasBrazil,China,India,andMexicoTheseinitiativessignalthat,onewayoranother,solutionsthataddresstheclimatechallengewillemergerankedasthewarmestyearonrecord,togetherwithand,WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)(http:wwwwmointpagesmediacentrepressreleasesprenhtml)tiedwithasthewarmestyearoftheglobalsurfacetemperaturerecord,beginningin,TheUSNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)(http:wwwnoaanewsnoaagovstoriesglobalstatshtml)endedwithCOemissionconcentrationsofppm,NOAA,January,SomeoftheissuesevidencedinwereexplainedindetailintheStateandTrendsreport:http:siteresourcesworldbankorgINTCARBONFINANCEResourcesStateandTrendsoftheCarbonMarketlowrespdfAccessdateAprilOvermillionEuropeanUnionemissionallowances(EUAs)werereportedstolenfromatleastEuropeannationalregistriesfromNovemberuntilJanuaryAsaconsequence,thetransferofallowanceshasbeentemporarilysuspendedintheEuropeanregistriesandthespottradeofcarbonassetswasfrozenforseveraldaysearly(http:eceuropaeuclimanewsindexenhtm)UndertheAdHocWorkingGrouponFurth

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