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The Art of Decision Making.pdf

The Art of Decision Making.pdf

上传者: nelson1094 2012-01-09 评分 5 0 287 39 1306 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《The Art of Decision Makingpdf》,可适用于IT/计算机领域,主题内容包含TheArtofDecisionMakingMirrorsofImagination,MasksofFateHelgaDrummondJOHNWIL符等。

TheArtofDecisionMakingMirrorsofImagination,MasksofFateHelgaDrummondJOHNWILEYSONS,LTDChichesterNewYorkWeinheimBrisbaneSingaporeTorontoTheArtofDecisionMakingTheArtofDecisionMakingMirrorsofImagination,MasksofFateHelgaDrummondJOHNWILEYSONS,LTDChichesterNewYorkWeinheimBrisbaneSingaporeTorontoCopyrightbyJohnWileySonsLtd,BaffinsLane,Chichester,WestSussexPOUD,EnglandNationalInternational()email(forordersandcustomerserviceenquiries):csbookswileycoukVisitourHomePageonhttp:wwwwileycoukorhttp:wwwwileycomAllRightsReservedNopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanningorotherwise,exceptunderthetermsoftheCopyright,DesignsandPatentsActorunderthetermsofalicenceissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency,TottenhamCourtRoad,London,WPHE,UK,withoutthepermissioninwritingofthepublisherorthecopyrightownerOtherWileyEditorialOfficesJohnWileySons,Inc,ThirdAvenue,NewYork,NY,USAWileyVCHVerlagGmbH,Pappelallee,DWeinheim,GermanyJohnWileySonsAustraliaLtd,ParkRoad,Milton,Queensland,AustraliaJohnWileySons(Asia)PteLtd,ClementiLoop#,JinXingDistripark,SingaporeJohnWileySons(Canada)Ltd,WorcesterRoad,Rexdale,OntarioMWL,CanadaBritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationDataAcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibraryISBNTypesetinptITCGaramondbyFootnoteGraphics,Warminster,WiltshirePrintedandboundinGreatBritainbyBiddlesLtd,GuildfordandKing’sLynnThisbookisprintedonacidfreepaperresponsiblymanufacturedfromsustainableforestry,inwhichatleasttwotreesareplantedforeachoneusedforpaperproductionForSheenaSciencereassures,artdisturbs(Proverb)ContentsAcknowledgementsxiiiIntroductionThequestionsAmbiguitylurksTheimaginedworldTheruttedroadShiftingtidesTheripeningofevents‘Allishuman’AreyoucompetentorluckyTheClockThatStruckThirteen:TheChallengeofSenseMaking‘Twodeadfish’HangedinthemiddleoftheplayTheclockthatstrucktwelveTheclockthatreallydidstrikethirteenTheperilsofexperienceTurningadramaintoacrisis‘Itcan’tbe’TheMorningAfterThelanternandthemirrorviiiCONTENTS‘Ohwhathaveyoudone’RollsmeetsRoyceDivorceyourhusbandwithouthimnoticingSentencefirst,verdictlaterTheghostsofChristmasThemagnoliayearsThelanternflickersTheDarkSideoftheMoonAnimaginedworldReceivedimagesThedarksideofthemoonLoveislikeHiddenpossibilitiesFromhellStrangledbyadishofeelsAllthatjazzGhostsandShadows:ReflectionsonInformationandDecisionMakingGreenlightspellsdangerDoyouunderstandPaintingGodCreatingconfusionGhostsandshadowsTricksofMindDéjàvuWhybadpublicityisbetterthannoneCONTENTSixWeighanchor‘Itcouldbeyou’‘Wow!Grabit!’‘Toosoondejectandtoosoonelate’EndingthepainTheEssentialLie:ExploringtheMythmakingProcessBuildingonmudDressedtokillWavingthemagicwandWritingthehymnsheetSingingfromthehymnsheetTheessentiallieThesuspicionofwitchcraft‘Thencamethecat’‘Anintensitybeyondbelief’HighTidesandGreenGrass:TheIllusionofControlIllusion‘Feellucky,punk’LightningstrikesIllusionpilesuponillusionNothingsucceedslikesuccessFinetuningtheoddsWaterseeping‘Likeachild’ssparkler’‘Afirethesizeofacardboardbox’xCONTENTS‘Makepumpspersonsreported’Hightidesandgreengrass–inthedesertTalesoftheUnexpected:ExploringtheParadoxofConsequence‘Kickback’:theparadoxofconsistencyProblems,problemsThehunterbecomesthehuntedWinner’scurseThetaleoftheboilermanTheIcarusparadoxArunawaybullThetragedyofthecommons‘Itwasacrucialdecision,itwasthewrongone’BrilliantanddaftChancehasgotnothingtodowithitRidingaTiger:EscalationinDecisionMakingMountingatigerHiddendepthsPromises,promisesAllishumanKeepingupappearancesHellhathnofuryMoneysunkandlostThemarchoffollyTomorrowandtomorrow‘AnAceofSuccess’:KnockingattheDoorofFateTheeventsunfoldCONTENTSxi‘Anaceofsuccess’EscalationShiftingsandsFiascobecomesinevitableTrustingtoluckThefortunesofwarThePointofNoReturnThesceneisadilapidatedhairdresser’sshop‘I’veonlymyselftokeep’‘Don’tclaptooloudly’‘Crisis,whatcrisis’‘Driftingidlytowardseternity’RedlightspellsdangerPolishingthechainsClutchingthepoleSkeletonsandcobwebsTheArtofDecisionMakingRisingtothelevelofeventsAdogisforlifeLiarsservingtruthTakeawalkonthewildsideThere’sarumourgoingroundOppositesLookhardandlooktwiceQuacksbawlingBuyinga‘cutandshut’FortunefavoursthebravexiiCONTENTSTheillusionofalternativesIfatfirstyoudon’tsucceedEscapingtorealityCatchafallingknifeDonoharmSqueezinghandsBlownoffcourseCreatingluckShowsomeemotionPuzzledaswellasbeatenIlsnepasserontpasLovingtodeathWhyghostsreturntohauntTheelementofsurpriseSweetaretheusesofadversityThegoldenchanceTimeandtideEpilogue:ADancingStarTranscendentoptimismReferencesIndexAcknowledgementsThisbookwaspromptedbyaninvitationtoteachriskanddecisionmakingontheManufacturingLeaders’courseoftheDepartmentofEngineeringattheUniversityofCambridgeIamgratefultoPeterWebsterandRobinDanielsfortheirenthusiasmandencouragementElizabethandStuartRayner(whomayhavebeenmagnoliaforthirtyyears)helpedmorethantheyrealisedbylisteningtomycomparisonsbetweentheirtaskofconvertingabarnandmineofwritingabookChapters,likeoakfloors,needsandingdown,andmaterial,likestaircases,sometimesrefusestofitIatleasthadtheconsolationofnothavingtoworryaboutwhethertheplumberortheelectricianwouldturnupaspromised–theultimateinuncertaintyMycommissioningeditor(‘youwantitwhen’)DianeTaylorwentbeyondthecallofdutyinreadingmaterialandcontributingsuggestionsButforherwillingnesstotakeachancetherewouldhavebeennobookMycolleaguesinLiverpoolhavebeengoodhumouredandsupportiveLauraMcAllisterreadsubstantialpartsofthetextandsavedmefrommanyerrorsJanetBealeproofreadthemanuscriptandhelpedwithpartoftheresearchIamgratefultoSheenaWaitkinsfordirectingmetotheAberdeenTyphoidReportandformuch,muchelsebesidesIntroduction‘Well,here’sanotherfinemess’(LaurelandHardy)ThepoetRobertBurnswarnsusthatourbestlaidschemesfrequentlygoawryItishilariouswhenLaurelandHardyfindthemselvesembroiledin‘anotherfinemess’,ratherlesssowhenithappensinreallifeMoreover,forallourtechnicalsophistication,weonlyhavetoopenanewspapertofindyetanother‘finemess’–theMillenniumDomethatpromisedsomuchandendedinignominy,theBSEsaga,theInternettradingcompaniesthatfelltoearthSomedecisionfailuresaresoseriousthattheword‘mess’isinadequateThepatientsmurderedbytheirtrusteddoctor,HaroldShipman,diedbecausepotentiallyominousevidencewasmisinterpretedThevictimsoftheConcordedisasterdiedbecauseapotentiallycatastrophicriskwentunrecognisedInourpersonalliveswealsosometimesmakedecisionsthat‘gangaftagley’WemayfindourselvestrappedinacareerorarelationshipandwonderhowwegotthereWemaydosomethingexactly‘bythebook’andfailmiserablyyetsucceedbrilliantlywhenweactuponintuitionandimpulseThecentralquestionthisbooktriestoanswerishowandwhydecisionsgoawryTherearemanybooksthattreatdecisionmakingasascienceThisisemphaticallynotoneofthemTherearenoprobabilitystatistics,INTRODUCTIONnomathematicalmodels,nospreadsheets,andnotechniquesofriskanalysisAlthoughsuchtoolshavetheirplace,theycanlullusintoafalsesenseofsecurityastheyimplythatriskissomethingthatcanbemanagedandcontrolledIfso,whydidthecollapseofmarketsintheFarEastintakeanalystsbysurpriseMorerecently,theriskof‘footandmouth’diseaseseemedsoremotethatbyearly,whenthediseasereappeared,manyfarmersintheUKhadstoppedinsuringagainstitMythemeisuncertaintyConsidertheboardgame‘Monopoly’WecanimproveourchancesofwinningbytakingastrategicapproachtodecisionmakingWecancomputetheprobabilityoflandingonMayfair,ordrawingthecardmarked‘Gotojail’YettheultimatearbiterisarollofthediceAlmostalldecisionsareagambleNomatterhowcarefullyweresearchandplan,thereisalwaystheriskthatthingswillturnoutdifferentlyfromwhatweexpectLaptopcomputerswereexpectedtooustthelargerdesktopmachines–apredictionthathasyettobefulfilledAlthoughtheforecastupsurgeinsalesofmobiletelephoneshasmaterialised,theunexpectedtwististhatexpansionhaslargelyfavouredthe‘payasyougo’sectorDecisionmakersmustnotonlyconfrontuncertaintyaboutthefuture,ambivalencealsosurroundsthepastandpresentDuringthesummerof,analystsdebatedthesignificanceoftheupsurgeinhousepricesDiditsignalthestartofanotherboomsimilartothatofthelates,orwerewewitnessinganisolatedeventthatwouldsoongivewaytoamarketcorrectionInOctober,anexpresspassengertrainwasderailedatHatfieldkillingfourpeopleTheimmediatecauseoftheaccidentwasabrokenrailAmoreimportantquestioniswhatthatbrokenrailsignifiedINTRODUCTIONDidtheaccidentreflectRailtrack’sallegedpolicyof‘sweatingassets’beingpushedtoofarWasthesubsequentdecisiontoembarkuponafullscaleprogrammeoftrackcheckingthatdelayedrailservicesformonthsanoverreaction,ordiditpreventotheraccidentsActIIoftheplayRosencrantzandGuildensternAreDeadendswiththewords,‘anythingcouldhappenyet’WecannotmakeadecisionwithoutformulatingsomeideaofwhatthefuturemayholdYetforallourtechniquesofforecastingandscenarioplanning,thefutureremainshiddenATT,theUStelecomscarrier,foresawtheconvergenceoftelecomsandcomputingandhowitwouldtransformourlivesandtheirbusinessHowever,theywerenottoknowthattheInternetwouldbethevehicleofconvergence,andthattheirdecisiontomergewithNCR,theUSbusinessmachinemanufacturer,inanticipationofdevelopmentswouldbeawasteoftime,moneyandopportunityEvenwhenweguessthefuturecorrectly,thedividinglinebetweensuccessandfailurecanbeslenderInthelatestheReichmannbrothersbegantheCanaryWharfprojectTheplanwastoconstructmillionsquarefeetofofficespaceinLondon’sthenderelictDocklandsThebrothersbelievedthatLondonwouldsoonrequiremodernofficebuildingswithspaciousfloorsforservicecompaniesYetthismassiveventurewaslaunchedwithalmostnotransportinfrastructureintheareaConsequently,CityfirmsinsearchofofficespacedismissedCanaryWharfasafringedevelopmentIn,asthepropertymarketcollapsed,andofficerentsplummeted,constructionhaltedCanaryWharfwasplacedinadministrationwithonlymillionoftheintendedmillionsquarefeetofofficespacecompleteINTRODUCTIONIn,PaulReichmannsucceededinbuyingCanaryWharfbackfromthebanksTheFinancialTimeswasnotimpressed,predictingthattheventuremightremainanexpensive‘whiteelephant’astheprospectivereleaseofmillionsquarefeetofofficespacewouldcreateanincreaseinsupplylikelytolimittherecoveryinofficerentsThequestionnowiswillthestoryofCanaryWharfendhappilyInrentswereasquaremetreFiveyearslater,inJuly,withtheDocklandsLightRailwayinserviceandtheJubileeLineextensionfinallycomplete,rentshavemorethantrebledtopasquaremetre,promptingPaulReichmanntopredictthatthesitewouldbefullyoccupiedwithineighteenmonthsTheupsurgeinCanaryWharf’sfortuneshasbeentherecentexpansionandmergingofmultinationalfirmssuchasCitigroup,CreditSuisseandFirstBostonInthelatesReichmannpredictedthatitwouldtaketentofifteenyearsforCanaryWharftorealiseitspotentialHemayhavebeenrightbutitsurelycountsasa‘closerunthing’LuckplaysapartindecisionmakingWhenthevolunteerworkersofthePeakRailorganisationdecidedtohireengineFlyingScotsmanforninedaysinthesummeroftheyknewtheyweretakingariskasthecostsofstagingtheeventmightfaroutweightherevenuesThedecisionmusthaveseemedillstarredwhenthelorrycarryingtheenginetoDerbyshireburstatyreonthemainroadnearRowsleyYettheeventgenerated(theequivalentofayear’sturnover),afigureboostedbythefreepublicitygeneratedasmotoristspassedthestrandedtransporterSometimesweareluckierthanwedeservetobeTextmessaginggeneratesmoreprofitformobiletelephoneoperatorsthanTHEQUESTIONScallsYetthefacilitywasaddedtomobiletelephoneslargelyasanafterthoughtWhatwedoknowisthatifwegetitwrong,wehavetolivewiththeconsequencesUnlikethefictionalBeggar’sOperanooneisgoingtoinsistthat‘thepiecemustendhappily’Metaphoricallyspeaking,ifwefinishupinthecondemnedcellthereisnoreprieve,unlessweareincrediblyluckyTheQuestionsMyfascinationwithdecisionmakingdatesfromwhenIwasaboutsevenyearsoldIreadabookthatsaidhistorywasallaboutblunders,lostopportunities,andfailedgamblesSoisdecisionmakingThespecificquestionsthisbooktriestoaddressareasfollows:Whyaredangersignsoftenmissed(Chapters,,,)Howdodecisionmakersbecomecommittedtoacourseofactionwithoutapparentlyhavingmadeadecision(Chapters,,and)Whyisitthatdecisionsthatwereabsolutelyrightcansuddenlyseemcompletelywrong(Chapters,,)Aredecisionmakerscompletelyatthemercyofchance(Chapters,,,)Decisionfiascosfrequentlytakeusbysurprise,yetinretrospectwereinevitableIfsomethingisunexpecteditcannotbeinevitableHowdoweexplainthatparadox(Chapters,)AlldecisionshaveunintendedconsequencesYetsometimesdecisionsproducethecompleteoppositeofwhatwasintendedHowdoesthishappen(Chapters,,,)INTRODUCTIONWhendecisionmakersareconfrontedbyfailuretheyfrequentlymakemattersworseby‘throwinggoodmoneyafterbad’–why(Chapters,,)Whydocrisesoccur(,)Whyareproblemssometimesignoreduntiltheybecomecrises(Chapters,,and)Whatcanwedoto‘getlucky’(Chapter,)AmbiguityLurksDecisionscienceassumesthatweliveinaworldwheretwoandtwoequalfourandwhereproblemsarriveondecisionmakers’desksoneatatime,neatlylabelledandmarked‘forattention’Incontrast,animportantthemeofthisbookisthatambiguityalwayslurksDecisionsarerarelyclearFeedbacktendstobeslowtoarrive,andisinvariablyequivocalMoreover,thepeopleonwhomwerelyforourinformationmayexaggerate,dissimulateandeventellliesTheImaginedWorldTheproblemofambiguityrunsdeeperthanthat,howeverDecisionsciencetreatsrealityassomethingthatexists‘outthere’waitingtobediscoveredIncontrast,anotherimportantthemeofthisbookisthatrealityexistsaswedefineitOurfreedomtodefinerealityimpliescontradictorythingsOntheonehand,wecanescapefromrealitybyretreatingintofantasyConversely,wecanchangerealitybyviewingtheworldfromSHIFTINGTIDESadifferentviewpointWhileweriskmissingdangersignswhenweretreatintoanunrealworld,ourfreedomtodefineourrealitiesalsomeansthatwearenotentirelyatthemercyofchanceOurproblemsareafigmentofourimaginationThisisnottosuggestthatwearedeluded,onlythattherearemanydifferentwaysofseeingandindeed,manydifferentrealitiesTheRuttedRoadDecisionscienceteachesthatthecorrectapproachindecisionmakingistochoosewhatevercourseofactionpromisesmaximumbenefitYetabasicdilemmaofdecisionmakingisthatwecanneverbesureoftheconsequencesofouractionsAmoreimportantissueishowweresolvethatdilemmainpracticeExperiencesuggeststhattherearenogoodorbaddecisionsassuchMorespecifically,decisionssucceedorfailaccordingtowhethertheycommandsupportAccordingtoourtextbooksthissuggestionisnonsenseThetextbookapproachtodecisionmakingrequiresustomakerationalchoicesInthisview,rationalityactsasaguideIsuggestthatitissafertoseerationalityasanachievement,forgedfromallthearguments,counterarguments,claimsandcounterclaimsofthedayMostdecisionscanbemadetolookgoodonpaperTheonlyvalidtestistheruttedroadofrealityShiftingTidesTheword‘decision’means‘tocut’,implyingaclearandvolitionalchoicebetweenalternativesIsuggestthatscientificperspectivesINTRODUCTIONplacetoomuchemphasisuponthenotionofdecisionattheexpenseofconsideringotheraspectsoftheprocessFirst,untilwecanmakesenseofasituationthereisnodecisiontomakeSecond,wearefacedwiththeproblemofimplementingourdecisionsOurmanagementtextbookssuggestthatimplementationissimplyamatterofmonitoringprogressandtakingcorrectiveactionwherenecessaryThismechanisticprescriptioncanleaveusfeelinginadequateasdecisionmakersbecauseitisinsensitivetotheshiftingtidesoforganisation,theobliquetwistsandturnswherebybestlaidplanscangoawryDecisionsciencefurtherassumesthatthingshappenbecausesomebody,somewheremakesadecisionThisperspectiveignoreshowdestinymaybeshapedbyindecisionandinactionTheRipeningofEventsDecisionsciencerestsupontakingtheriskoutofuncertaintybypreemptiveplanningandforecastingTheartofdecisionmakingstressesreflection,imaginationandinsightWhiledecisionsciencesuggestswecaneliminatesurprise,theartofdecisionmakinginvolvesreflectingupontheripeningofevents,assessingwhatthefuturemaybring,wheretheweaknesseslieandpreparingtobesurprisedYeteventsar

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