乍暖还寒2009年我国外贸或将大幅下降（In 2009, China´s foreign trade or cold will decline）

乍暖还寒2009年我国外贸或将大幅下降（In 2009, China´s foreign trade or cold will decline） 乍暖还寒2009年我国外贸或将大幅下降(In 2009, China's foreign trade or cold will decline) Looking at the "winter", "spring" and "song" of China's foreign trade from the Customs Statistics The "Wall Street journal" commented that "all over the world are in sharp decline in foreign trade, even during the recession, this is a kind of unusual situation, but also increases the difficulty of dropping out of the economic world." With the spread of the financial crisis to the real economy, the world is facing a global trade landslide. Overall drop in the chain rose China's foreign trade has increased rapidly for the 6 consecutive year, and total import and export volume reached 1 trillion and 967 billion 130 million US dollars in the first three quarters of 2008, an increase of 25.2% over the same period in 2007. Among them, the total exports of 1 trillion and 74 billion 60 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 22.2%, down 4.9 percentage points over the same period in 2007; imports amounted to $893 billion 70 million, an increase of 29%, 9.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2007. Import growth for the first time in 4 years exceeded export growth, trade balance improved, the foreign trade surplus of 180 billion 990 million U.S. dollars, down 2.7% over the same period in 2007. In the import and export volume, export of electromechanical products 617 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 24%, continue to maintain a rapid growth momentum, including shipbuilding, automobile and engineering machinery and other products export growth significantly accelerated, to a certain extent offset the impact of communications equipment slowdown. The first three quarters of 2008, China's total foreign trade continued to maintain steady and rapid development, import and export structure was further improved, continue to improve the quality, changing the growth mode of foreign trade has taken new steps, the General Administration of Customs gives this assessment. When go to the fourth quarter of 2008, the global situation suddenly changes. By 2008 December, our exports fell by 2.8% compared with the same period of last year, imports fell by 21.3%, and foreign trade fell by a record of at least 10 years. And this has been China's eleventh months since the beginning of second months, imports and exports at the same time decline. Imports and exports totaled $183 billion 334 million in 2008 December, down 11.1% from a year earlier. This is the second consecutive month of decline in China's foreign trade imports and exports, and further decline. Exports fell by 2.8% in December, compared with a 21.3% decrease in imports. In November last year, exports fell by 2.2%, the first negative growth in June 2001, while imports fell by 17.9% year on year, the first negative growth since February 2005. Monthly import and export growth may be the first decline since October 1998. Data show that China's trade surplus for the first time in November 2008 exceeded 40 billion, reaching 40 billion 90 million U.S. dollars, a record high. China's trade surplus fell to $38 billion 980 million in December. This is a reversal of the trade surplus, which hit a record high in November. In addition to the data from the year 2008, total import and export $2 trillion and 561 billion 632 million in China, an increase of 17.8%; of which exports amounted to $1 trillion and 428 billion 546 million, an increase of 17.2%; imports totaled $1 trillion and 133 billion 86 million, an increase of 18.5%. The annual trade surplus was $295 billion 459 million, up from $262 billion 200 million in 2007. In view of this, 2008 may be the smallest increase in China's trade surplus since 2003. But as a whole, China's average trade import and export volume was 1 trillion and 235 billion 260 million US dollars in 2008, an increase of 27.6%. Among them, exports of 662 billion 580 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 22.9%; imports of 572 billion 680 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 33.6%. Over the same period, imports and exports of processing trade reached US $1 trillion and 53 billion 590 million, an increase of 6.8%. Among them, exports of 675 billion 180 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 9.3%; imports of 378 billion 400 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 2.7%. So we're still harvesting. In the mechanical and electrical and high-tech products import and export, in 2008 China's mechanical and electrical products exports 822 billion 930 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 17.3%. Among them, electrical and electronic products exported 342 billion 20 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 13.9%; machinery and equipment exports 268 billion 630 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 17.5%; high-tech products exports 415 billion 610 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 13.1%. In imports, imports of industrial products $770 billion 310 million, an increase of 8.1%, accounting for China's total imports of 68%; among them, the import of mechanical and electrical products $538 billion 660 million, an increase of 7.9%; imports of chemical products and related products for $119 billion 190 million, an increase of 10.8%; imports of 408 thousand vehicles, an increase of 30.6%; steel imports 15 million 430 thousand tons, down 8.6%. Crisis spreads, bright spot still The report issued on January 13th by the General Administration of Customs pointed out that despite the continuing impact of the current international financial crisis, there are still some of the following highlights in our foreign trade: first, the effect of export incentive policies is beginning to emerge. In August 1, 2008, November 1st and December 1st, China has continuously increased the export rebate rate of some commodities, and the effect of the policy has already begun to appear. In December, the total export of commodities involved in the policy adjustment totaled US $54 billion 450 million, representing an increase of 4.8%, accounting for 45. of the total export value of China in the first 11 months 8% rose to 49% in December. Among them, clothing, plastic products, bags and lamps exports have shown accelerated growth. Two is the general trade, export prices rose basically stable. In the case of weakening external demand, China's general trade export prices rose steadily, and played a very important role in stimulating overall exports. From June 2008 to December, China's general trade export prices rose basically stable at 16% - 19%, December is 16.3%, the general trade exports to maintain 6% growth trend, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to November. As for the specific circumstances of the provinces and municipalities, China's Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Beijing continue to rank among the top four provinces in terms of foreign trade import and export value. In 2008, the total value of Guangdong's imports and exports reached US $683 billion 260 million, an increase of 7.7%, and the import and export volume ranked first in all provinces and municipalities in china. Over the same period, the total import and export value of Jiangsu and Shanghai was 392 billion 270 million US dollars and 322 billion 100 million US dollars, respectively, up 12.2% and 13.9% respectively. In addition, the total value of Beijing's imports and exports was US $271 billion 710 million, an increase of 40.7%, an increase of 18.6 percentage points over the previous year. The total import and export volume of these 4 provinces and cities accounted for 65.2% of the total value of China's imports and exports. Foreign trade structure; alignment; anticipation "Behind a series of economic data, the economic structure of our country is moving in the direction we expect," said Yao Jian, spokesman for the Ministry of commerce. The first is that we improve the structure of foreign trade, for example, our mechanical and electrical products increased by 17.3%, to further expand our share in high-end manufacturing proportion; secondly, the structure of our domestic exports are adjusted, such as the US Midwest export ratio and improved to a certain extent, we say possession of a number of emerging market to further improve the proportion; third, is our general trade growth rate faster than the processing trade growth rate of 13.6 percentage points. It should be said that these are good changes." General manager and director of the French Paris Securities Asia Ltd. chief economist Chen Xingdong said that the negative growth in exports in 2009 will continue to 3, in April, he said, with the further spread of the world financial crisis and the impact of the slowdown in external demand, trade friction, China's export growth is facing enormous challenges. But he also pointed out that over the years the growth rate of two digit export in our country, our country also caused nearly 70% of external dependence, economic growth strategy, relying on two digit export growth is not at present in our country should be taken but maintain a number of export growth is absolutely necessary, because export growth is behind the enterprise survival and employment guarantee. Haitong Securities is expected in the first quarter of 2009, import and export will continue the trend of rapid decline; the gold report said, exports in 2009 will be a "hard landing", the annual export growth rate is zero, the contribution to GDP growth is zero; we expect Chinese exports in 2009 and the current account surplus will appear negative growth the next two years, while the reserve growth will also slow down export growth, high growth era or come to an end. 08, slow down, 09 years will be a substantial decline? The current international financial crisis has not yet bottomed out, but nearly 60% of China's export directly or indirectly for the United States, the EU and Japan market, currently the three largest economy in recession, the other market make up for the loss of exports requires painstaking efforts, at the same time, China's increasing exports to emerging markets and developing countries in difficulty increase in. Experts predict that in the global economy, especially in the United States economic recovery in the short term is difficult in the background, China's rapid export growth for several years will reverse the situation. The General Administration of Customs reports that the international financial crisis has spread to the real economy, the decline in foreign demand has been a strong constraint on China's exports, export scale will continue to show a downward trend. In 2009, the decline in imports and exports will continue for some time, according to the current international and domestic economic environment estimates, the annual import and export growth may slow to below 5%. The total import and export volume in 2009 is expected to decline by about 20% from 2008. Chinese macroeconomic association secretary general Wang Jian said, greater impact on financial storm wave is likely to occur in the first half of 2009, the severity is greater than in 2008, the main reason is the collapse of the bubble economy in developed countries after the collapse of the financial market. At the same time, the overall price level of exports will drop a certain extent as the total export volume decreases. Xu Pingsheng said the state information centre, with the decline in demand, the basic energy and raw material prices fell sharply, the export tax rebate rate adjustment, the RMB exchange rate and other factors, the overall average price is expected to decline this year, China's exports will be around 10%. However, the decrease in foreign orders will affect the import demand for processing trade, In addition, the sharp drop in the price of raw materials and the decline in domestic economic growth, the decline in imports in the short term will be significantly higher than exports, therefore, China's trade surplus will remain high. Xu Pingsheng expects the trade surplus to be around $330 billion in 2009, up from around $300 billion in 2008.