贝莱德 一周精选

KypointsRichardTurnillGlobalChifInstmntStratgistRichardTurnillisBlackRock’sGlobalChifInstmntStratgist.HwaspriouslyChifInstmntStratgistforBlackRock’sfixdincomandactiquitybusinsss,andhasalsoldthGlobalEquityinstmnttam.RichardstartdhiscarratthBankofEngland.Sharyourfdbackatblackrockinstmnts@blackrock.comWEEKLYCOMMENTARYFEB.21,2017AnalystshabcomincrasinglyupbataboutcorporatarningsinJapan,mrgingmarktsandEuropsinclat2016.Earningsstimatshabnrisdupinthsmarkts,andlowrdslightlyinthU.S.,asthchartshows.Japanladsthcrowd.IsabllMatosyLagoChifMultiAsstStratgistBlackRockInstmntInstitutKatMoorChifEquityStratgistBlackRockInstmntInstitutJffRosnbrgChifFixdIncomStratgistBlackRockInstmntInstitutRidingaglobalarningsupswing11Wsanimproinggrowthoutlooksupportingcompanyarnings,spciallyinEuropandJapan.2Strongrriska ppt 关于艾滋病ppt课件精益管理ppt下载地图下载ppt可编辑假如ppt教学课件下载triz基础知识ppt itandconomicdatapushdglobalquitistorcordhighs.Gornmntbondyildsros.3Thiswk’sFbruaryPMIdatafrommajorconomisarliklytohornarthstrongllshitinpriousmonths.Upbatglobalarningsarconfirmingthatthbnfitsofrflation−risingwags,growthandinflation−arspradingbyondthU.S.Wsroomformorupsidforcorporatprofits,spciallyinEuropandJapan.ChartofthwkChangsinarningsstimats,20122017Sourcs:BlackRockInstmntInstitut,MSCIandThomsonRutrs,Fbruary2017.Nots:Thlinsshowththrmonthchanginthaggrgat12monthforwardarningsstimats.ThdataarbasdonMSCIU.S.,Europ,JapanandEmrgingMarktsindxs.Thrmonthchang10%10505201420152016201720132012EuropJapanEmrgingmarktsU.S.Hrtostay:arningsmomntumGlobalarningsarcollctilypostingsomofthirbstprformancsincthndofthfinancialcrisis.Wxpctthistrndtoxtndasworldgrowthgainsmomntum.OurBlackRockGPS,whichoffrsanarlypkatthliklyolutionofgrowthxpctationsforkyconomis,signalsupsidsurprissforJapan,FrancandGrmany.Wblithisgrowthwilltranslatintonstrongrarningsinthsmarktsorcomingquartrs,similartothU.S.xprincinthscondhalfof2016.Japan’sarningsarparticularlyimprssi.ThDcmbrquartrprtaxprofitsros11%onthyartothhighstllinadcad.Thrboundincommodityprics,asoftruroandstrongrconomicgrowtharsttingEuropanarningsoncoursforthbstquartrsinc2011.ButinstorsarjustwarminguptoJapansandEuropanshars−onrasonwfaorbothorthU.S.OuranalysisshowsfwsignsoforlybullishpositionsonJapansandEuropanquitis,suggstingmorroomforinstorstostpin.Twosctortrndsstandoutglobally:Stpryildcursandimproingntintrstmarginshaboostdprofitsforglobalfinancials,whillongtrmdmandtrndshaliftdtchnologyrnus.Managmntsntimnt,whichBlackRock’sScintificActiEquitytamcaptursbytxtminingcompanyconfrnccalls,rflctsanupbatandimproingoutlookinthssctors.BondsWkYTD12MonthsYildU.S.Trasuris0.1%0.4%1.3%2.4%U.S.TIPS0.2%0.8%4.4%2.4%U.S.InstmntGrad0.1%0.7%7.0%3.3%U.S.HighYild0.2%2.2%23.8%5.8%U.S.Municipals0.2%0.7%0.6%2.5%NonU.S.Dlopd0.3%1.2%1.2%0.8%EM$Bonds0.1%2.6%12.9%5.5%CurrncisWkYTD12MonthsLlEuroUSD0.3%0.9%4.6%1.06USDYn0.3%3.5%1.1%112.84PoundUSD0.6%0.6%13.2%1.24EquitisWkYTD12MonthsDi.YildU.S.LargCaps1.6%5.0%22.0%2.1%U.S.SmallCaps0.8%3.3%40.5%1.3%NonU.S.World0.9%5.5%20.0%3.1%NonU.S.Dlopd0.9%4.4%15.8%3.3%Japan0.3%4.7%22.9%2.0%Emrging1.0%9.0%30.7%2.7%AsiaxJapan0.9%9.4%27.1%2.6%CommoditisWkYTD12MonthsLlBrntCrudOil1.6%1.8%61.8%$55.81Gold0.1%7.6%2.2%$1,235Coppr2.1%7.7%29.9%$5,960Sourc:Bloombrg.AsofFb.17,2017.Nots:WklydatathroughFriday.EquityandbondprformancarmasurdintotalindxrturnsinU.S.dollars.U.S.largcapsarrprsntdbythSP500Indx;U.S.smallcapsarrprsntdbythRussll2000Indx;NonU.S.worldquitybythMSCIACWIxU.S.;nonU.S.dlopdquitybythMSCIEAFEIndx;Japan,EmrgingandAsiaxJapanbythirrspctiMSCIIndxs;U.S.TrasurisbythBloombrgBarclaysU.S.TrasuryIndx;U.S.TIPSbythU.S.TrasuryInflationNotsTotalRturnIndx;U.S.instmntgradbythBloombrgBarclaysU.S.CorporatIndx;U.S.highyildbythBloombrgBarclaysU.S.CorporatHighYild2%IssurCappdIndx;U.S.municipalsbythBloombrgBarclaysMunicipalBondIndx;nonU.S.dlopdbondsbythBloombrgBarclaysGlobalAggrgatxUSD;andmrgingmarkt$bondsbythJPMorganEMBIGlobalDirsifidIndx.BrntcrudoilpricsarinU.S.dollarsprbarrl,goldpricsarinU.S.dollarprtroyouncandcopprpricsarinU.S.dollarprmtricton.ThEuroUSDllisrprsntdbyU.S.dollarpruro,USDJPYbyynprU.S.dollarandPoundUSDbyU.S.dollarprpound.Indxprformancisshownforillustratipurpossonly.Itisnotpossibltoinstdirctlyinanindx.Pastprformancisnotindicatioffuturrsults.GlobalsnapshotWklyand12monthprformancofslctdasstsWkinriw2Strongrriskapptitandconomicdatapushdglobalquitistorcordhighs.Gornmntbondyildsros.U.S.,UK,GrmanyandChinadatahighlightdthglobalpickupininflation.ButJapansandEuropangrossdomsticproductdatacaminmarginallyblowxpctations.FdralRsrChairJantYllnsaidinflationandlabormarktarbothclostotargts,butthconomicoutlookisuncrtain.MarktsraisdthprobabilityofaMarchratincras. Orwight  — Nutral   UndrwightAsstclassiwsViwsfromaU.S.dollarprspctiorathrmonthhorizonAsstclassViwCommntsEquitisU.S.—Ashifttowardfiscalxpansionanddrgulationarsupporti,butuncrtaintisaboutthtimingandimplmntationabound.Valuationsarlatd.Wlikalu,financials,halthcaranddiidndgrowrs.EuropSignsofglobalrflation,animproingarningsoutlookandawakurosupportcyclicalsandxportrs.Wsnartrmpoliticalriskasorstatd,andanunliklyglobalslumpasthkyrisk.JapanPositisarawakryn,improingglobalgrowthandmorsharholdrfrindlycorporatbhaior.WsBoJpolicyanddomsticinstorbuyingassupporti.Risksarrnwdynstrngthandrisingwagsatingintomargins.EMEconomicrforms,improingcorporatfundamntalsandrasonablaluationssupportEMstocks,wbli.Rflationandgrowthinthdlopdworldaranothrpositi.Risksincludshiftsincurrncypolicisandtradconflicts.AsiaxJapanFinancialsctorrformandrisingcurrntaccountsurplussarncouraging.China’sconomictransitionisongoing,butwblilowrgrowthratsarpricdin.WlikIndiaandslctdSouthastAsianmarkts.FixdincomU.S.gornmntbondsArflationaryoutlookchallngslongrtrmbonds.WfaorTIPSornominaldbt.Widninginagncymortgagspradsimprosaluations,ytchangstothFd’srinstmntsaralongrtrmconcrn.U.S.municipals—Highrratsharstordalutothasstclass,rnwinginflowssincthstartofthyar.Wfaorthshorttointrmdiatpartofthcurahadofasasonalpriodofhighrissuancanduncrtaintyaroundtaxrform.U.S.crditStrongrgrowthfaorscrditorTrasuris.Wgnrallyprfrupinqualityxposursandinstmntgradbondsdutolatdcrditmarktaluations.Floatingratbankloansappartooffrinsulationfromrisingratsbutwfindthmpricy.Europansorigns—Thrcntimpromntinconomicdataandundrprformancofthsctorkpusnutral.PoliticalrisksinItalyandFrancmakuscautiousonsmicorandpriphralgornmntbonds.Europancrdit—Elatdaluationskpusnutralwithaprfrncforslctdsubordinatdfinancials.EMdbt—EconomicrflationshouldbnfitEMs.RisksincludarisingU.S.dollarandglobalrats,andthratstofrtrad.StrongpostU.S.lctionprformancrsusothrriskasstsmaksuscautious.Wstillsslctdopportunitis,mostlyinhardcurrncydbt.Asiafixdincom—Valuationshabcomlsscompllingasspradshacomprssdalongwiththrcntrisinyilds.WarpositionthcyclicaloutlookforChina,butsrisingU.S.tradprotctionismasarisk.OthrCommoditisandcurrncis—Supplyrationalizationandrflationarundrpinningoilandindustrialmtalsinthnartrm.WsthU.S.dollarstrngthning,spciallyagainstthynandEMcurrncis,onstrongrgrowthxpctationsandintrstratdiffrntials.Fb.21Eurozon,JapanandU.S.PurchasingManagrs’Indxs(PMIs)Fb.22Eurozoninflation(finalrlas);FdmtingminutsFb.24U.S.nwhomsalsFbruary’sPMIdataarxpctdtomodratfromthrystrongllsrachdinrcntmonths,undrpinningthglobalrflationpictur.Wkahad3ThismatrialisprpardbyBlackRockandisnotintnddtobrliduponasaforcast,rsarchorinstmntadic,andisnotarcommndation,offrorsolicitationtobuyorsllanyscuritisortoadoptanyinstmntstratgy.ThopinionsxprssdarasofFb.21,2017,andmaychangassubsquntconditionsary.ThinformationandopinionscontaindinthismatrialardridfrompropritaryandnonpropritarysourcsdmdbyBlackRocktobrliabl,arnotncssarilyallinclusiandarnotguarantdastoaccuracy.Assuch,nowarrantyofaccuracyorrliabilityisginandnorsponsibilityarisinginanyothrwayforrrorsandomissions(includingrsponsibilitytoanyprsonbyrasonofnglignc)isaccptdbyBlackRock,itsofficrs,mploysoragnts.Thismatrialmaycontain“forwardlooking”informationthatisnotpurlyhistoricalinnatur.Suchinformationmayinclud,amongothrthings,projctionsandforcasts.Thrisnoguarantthatanyforcastsmadwillcomtopass.Rliancuponinformationinthismatrialisatthsoldiscrtionofthradr.InthEUissudbyBlackRockInstmntManagmnt(UK)Limitd(authorisdandrgulatdbythFinancialConductAuthority).Rgistrdoffic:12ThrogmortonAnu,London,EC2N2DL.RgistrdinEnglandNo.2020394.Tl:02077433000.Foryourprotction,tlphoncallsarusuallyrcordd.BlackRockisatradingnamofBlackRockInstmntManagmnt(UK)Limitd.ThismatrialisfordistributiontoProfssionalClints(asdfindbythFCARuls)andQualifidInstorsandshouldnotbrliduponbyanyothrprsons.ForqualifidinstorsinSwitzrland,thismatrialshallbxclusilymadaailablto,anddirctdat,qualifidinstorsasdfindinthSwissCollctiInstmntSchmsActof23Jun2006,asamndd.IssudinAustraliaandNwZalandbyBlackRockInstmntManagmnt(Australia)LimitdABN13006165975AFSL230523(BIMAL)forthxclusiusofthrcipintwhowarrantsbyrciptofthismatrialthatthyarawholsalclintandnotartailclintasthostrmsardfindundrthAustralianCorporationsAct2001(Cth)andthNwZalandFinancialAdisrsAct2008rspctily.Thismatrialcontainsgnralinformationonlyanddosnotconstitutfinancialproductadic.Thismatrialhasbnprpardwithouttakingintoaccountanyprson’sobjctis,financialsituationornds.Bformakinganyinstmntdcisionbasdonthismatrial,aprsonshouldasssswhthrthinformationisappropriathaingrgardtothprson’sobjctis,financialsituationandndsandconsultthirfinancial,tax,lgal,accountingorothrprofssionaladisoraboutthinformationcontaindinthismatrial.Thismatrialisnotintnddfordistributionto,orusbyanyprsonorntityinanyjurisdictionorcountrywhrsuchdistributionoruswouldbcontrarytolocallaworrgulation.BIMAListhissuroffinancialproductsandactsasaninstmntmanagrinAustralia.BIMALdosnotoffrfinancialproductstoprsonsinNwZalandwhoarrtailinstors(asthattrmisdfindinthFinancialMarktsConductAct2013(FMCA)).Thismatrialdosnotconstitutorrlattosuchanoffr.Tothxtntthatthismatrialdosconstitutorrlattosuchanoffroffinancialproducts,thoffrisonlymadto,andcapablofaccptancby,prsonsinNwZalandwhoarwholsalinstors(asthattrmisdfindinthFMCA).BIMALisapartofthglobalBlackRockGroupwhichcomprissoffinancialproductissursandinstmntmanagrsaroundthworld.ThismatrialhasnotbnprpardspcificallyforAustralianorNwZalandinstors.ItmaycontainrfrncstodollaramountswhicharnotAustralianorNwZalanddollarsandmaycontainfinancialinformationwhichisnotprpardinaccordancwithAustralianorNwZalandlaworpractics.BIMAL,itsofficrs,mploysandagntsblithatthinformationinthismatrialandthsourcsonwhichthinformationisbasd(whichmaybsourcdfromthirdpartis)arcorrctasatthdatspcifidinthismatrial.Whilrycarhasbntakninthprparationofthismatrial,nowarrantyofaccuracyorrliabilityisginandnorsponsibilityforthisinformationisaccptdbyBIMAL,itsofficrs,mploysoragnts.Excptwhrcontrarytolaw,BIMALxcludsallliabilityforthisinformation.Pastprformancisnotarliablindicatoroffuturprformanc.Instinginolsriskincludinglossofprincipal.NoguarantastothcapitalaluofinstmntsnorfuturrturnsismadbyBIMALoranycompanyinthBlackRockGroup.ThisinformationcanbdistributdinandfromthDubaiIntrnationalFinancialCntr(DIFC)byBlackRockAdisors(UK)Limitd—DubaiBranch,whichisrgulatdbythDubaiFinancialSricsAuthority(“DFSA”),andisonlydirctdat‘ProfssionalClints’andnoothrprsonshouldrlyuponthinformationcontaindwithinit.InSingapor,thisisissudbyBlackRock(Singapor)Limitd(Co.rgistrationno.200010143N)forusonlywithinstitutionalinstorsasdfindinSction4AofthScuritisandFutursAct,Chaptr289ofSingapor.InHongKong,thismatrialisissudbyBlackRockAsstManagmntNorthAsiaLimitdandhasnotbnriwdbythScuritisandFutursCommissionofHongKong.Thismatrialisfordistributionto“ProfssionalInstors”(asdfindinthScuritisandFutursOrdinanc(Cap.571ofthlawsofHongKong)andanyrulsmadundrthatordinanc)andshouldnotbrliduponbyanyothrprsonsorrdistributdtortailclintsinHongKong.InKora,thismatrialisforProfssionalInstorsonly(or“profssionalclints”,assuchtrmmayapplyinlocaljurisdictions).Instmntsinolrisks.Pastprformancisnotaguidtofuturprformanc.Thismatrialisintnddforinformationpurpossonlyanddosnotconstitutinstmntadicoranoffrorsolicitationtopurchasorsllinanyscuritis,BlackRockfundsoranyinstmntstratgynorshallanyscuritisboffrdorsoldtoanyprsoninanyjurisdictioninwhichanoffr,solicitation,purchasorsalwouldbunlawfulundrthscuritislawsofsuchjurisdiction.InJapan,thisisissudbyBlackRockJapan.Co.,Ltd.(FinancialInstrumntsBusinssOprator:ThKantoRgionalFinancialBurau.LicnsNo375,AssociationMmbrships:JapanInstmntAdisrsAssociation,ThInstmntTrustsAssociation,Japan,JapanScuritisDalrsAssociation,TypIIFinancialInstrumntsFirmsAssociation.)forProfssionalInstorsonly(ProfssionalInstorisdfindinFinancialInstrumntsandExchangAct)andforinformationorducationalpurpossonly,anddosnotconstitutinstmntadicoranoffrorsolicitationtopurchasorsllsinanyscuritisoranyinstmntstratgis.InTaiwan,indpndntlyopratdbyBlackRockInstmntManagmnt(Taiwan)Limitd.Addrss:28F,No.95,TunHwaSouthRoad,Sction2,Taipi106,Taiwan.Tl:(02)23261600.InCanada,thismatrialisintnddforprmittdclintsonly.InLatinAmricaandIbria,thismatrialisforducationalpurpossonlyanddosnotconstitutinstmntadicnoranoffrorsolicitationtosllorasolicitationofanoffrtobuyanysharsofanyfund(norshallanysuchsharsboffrdorsoldtoanyprson)inanyjurisdictioninwhichanoffr,solicitation,purchasorsalwouldbunlawfulundrthscuritislawofthatjurisdiction.Ifanyfundsarmntiondorinfrrdtointhismatrial,itispossiblthatsomorallofthfundshanotbnrgistrdwiththscuritisrgulatorofBrazil,Chil,Colombia,Mxico,Panama,Pru,Portugal,Spain,UruguayoranyothrscuritisrgulatorinanyLatinAmricancountryandthusmightnotbpubliclyoffrdwithinanysuchcountry.Thscuritisrgulatorsofsuchcountrishanotconfirmdthaccuracyofanyinformationcontaindhrin.Thinformationproiddhrisnithrtaxnorlgaladic.Instorsshouldspaktothirtaxprofssionalforspcificinformationrgardingthirtaxsituation.Instmntinolsriskincludingpossibllossofprincipal.Intrnationalinstinginolsrisks,includingrisksrlatdtoforigncurrncy,limitdliquidity,lssgornmntrgulation,andthpossibilityofsubstantialolatilitydutoadrspolitical,conomicorothrdlopmnts.Thsrisksaroftnhightndforinstmntsinmrgingdlopingmarktsorsmallrcapitalmarkts.©2017BlackRock,Inc.AllRightsRsrd.BLACKROCKisargistrdtradmarkofBlackRock,Inc.Allothrtradmarksarthosofthirrspctiownrs.PrpardbyBlackRockInstmnts,LLC,mmbrFINRA.NotFDICInsurdMayLosValuNoBankGuarant008289AUS10217BRB0077BlackRockInstmntInstitutThBlackRockInstmntInstitut(BII)proidsconnctiitybtwnBlackRock’sportfoliomanagrs,originatsmarktrsarchandpublishsinsights.Ourgoalsartohlpourfundmanagrsbcombttrinstorsandtoproducthoughtprookingcontntforclintsandpolicymakrs.BLACKROCKVICECHAIRMANPhilippHildbrandGLOBALCHIEFINVESTMENTSTRATEGISTRichardTurnillHEADOFECONOMICANDMARKETSRESEARCHJanBoiinEXECUTIVEEDITORJackRrink