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首页 宏观经济学-ch6-失业2-(2)

宏观经济学-ch6-失业2-(2).ppt

宏观经济学-ch6-失业2-(2)

教育文库
2018-11-24 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《宏观经济学-ch6-失业2-(2)ppt》,可适用于高等教育领域

宏观经济学第五版NG曼昆教学幻灯片制作:RonCronovichmacro©WorthPublishers,allrightsreserved第章失业*Exceptforthematerialoneconomicgrowth(Chaptersand),thischaptercompletesourstudyoftheeconomy’sbehaviorinthelongrun,whenpricesgenerallyareflexibleandmarketsclear第六章失业学习重点自然失业率的判断摩擦性失业与结构性失业的判断结构性失业的几种理论(重点:效率工资理论)第六章失业欧洲失业的增长第六章失业slide*城镇登记失业率我们当前所采用的是城镇登记失业率。只有到当地劳动保障部门登记的符合失业条件的人员才被统计为失业人员没有登记的不统计为失业人员。这个统计数字只针对城镇不包括农村剩余劳动力也不包括农村进城务工的劳动力。此外下岗职工也不被计算进来因为下岗职工并没有与所在企业解除劳动关系而失业人员则与原企业终止劳动关系。登记失业人数尽管和实际失业人数有一定误差但多年的监测表明登记失业率的变化趋势与实际失业就业状况基本一致。国家已在酝酿更科学、更能反映中国就业状况的失业调查方法。第六章失业slide*省就业目标:城镇登记失业率以内第六章失业中国正面临世界上最大的就业问题国情问题专家、清华大学教授胡鞍钢讲过的一句。他说“中国正面临世界上最大的就业战争”。把就业视作一场战争当然不只是一个简单的比喻而是有事实依据的。据他计算中国以世界上%的自然资源%的资本资源%的知识技术资源以及%的国际资源等来为占世界人口%的劳动力创造就业机会。第六章失业换句话说世界上还没有哪个国家要像中国这样提供亿多个工作岗位整个西方发达国家才不过提供亿。因此说中国正面临世界上最大的就业战争是一点也不为过的。至少在未来年中国的人口还呈增加的趋势劳动力供大于求的矛盾将长期存在。第六章失业讨论题:、失业与就业的含义。、失业率衡量标准。、我国目前失业率居高不下的原因是什么?第六章失业按照经济学家的观点凡在一定的年龄段愿意工作而没找到工作的人就叫失业。充分就业并非人人都有工作经济中失业率属于充分就业。评价一个国家失业率的主要指标是失业率。失业率是指失业人数就业人数与失业人数之和的百分比。市场经济发达国家对失业率“de*三、实际工资刚性和结构性失业如果实际工资保持在均衡水平以上那么就不会有足够的工作岗位提供。*FigureonpAbbreviation:“eq’m”=equilibrium第六章失业slide*(一)失业的原因:实际工资刚性如果实际工资保持在均衡水平以上那么就不会有足够的工作岗位提供。厂商只能提供不足的工作岗位。结构性失业(structuralunemployment):由于实际工资刚性和工作岗位不足造成的失业。*第六章失业案例:实际工资刚性slide*第一次世界大战以后美国经济进入结构转型时期三次产业和制造业中技术含量较高的非耐用消费品部门在经济中的重要性不断增加。经济结构的调整引起就业结构的调整。传统产业部门是吸纳劳动力的主要部门它的衰落导致经济中出现结构性的失业问题。在二十年代新兴产业高速发展成为就业增长点支持了就业结构的调整。年的大萧条打断了结构调整过程。萧条中工商业垄断势力增强大金融与大产业相结合新兴产业部门的增长被抑制经济落入萧条陷阱。经济结构调整进程的滞顿导致就业结构调整路径也被阻塞从而出现持续高失业。第六章失业slide*工人组织在萧条中力量大为壮大在有效需求不足理论的风行下工人的集体行动得到普遍支持抵消了大规模失业对工资的向下压力导致经济中出现实际工资刚性。但是工人组织是工人中的垄断势力实际工资刚性的实质是它以牺牲工会外工人特别是失业工人的利益为代价取得工会工人(在职者)的利益。罗斯福新政试图改进收入分配提高有效需求实现经济复苏和就业增长。第六章失业slide*但是政府不是经济中的超然力量。金融巨头、产业巨头和工人组织这三大垄断势力谋求推卸萧条成本政府被利用为转嫁机制。新政在工商业垄断势力特别是金融巨头的把持和利用下出台在实施过程中工人组织为了自身利益也往往与企业合作。结果新政加强了经济中阻碍新兴产业增长和经济结构调整的力量加剧了持续高失业问题在工人组织的推动下出台的对劳动力市场的直接干预措施则加强了实际工资刚性趋势。第六章失业slide*(二)工资刚性的原因、法律规定的最低工资线、劳动工会组织、效率工资*第六章失业slide*、最低工资法对于大多数工人而言最低工资线大大低于均衡工资水平因此它不能解释大多数的自然失业。然而最低工资线可能超过非熟练工人的均衡工资特别是青少年的均衡工资。如果是这样我们就应该预计到增加最低工资可能会在这些人群中形成失业。*第六章失业最低工资标准 年全国最新数据最低工资标准是指劳动者在法定工作时间或依法签订的劳动合同约定的工作时间内提供了正常劳动的前提下用人单位依法应支付的最低劳动报酬。最低工资标准一般采取月最低工资标准和小时最低工资标准两种形式月最低工资标准适用于全日制就业劳动者小时最低工资标准适用于非全日制就业劳动者。第六章失业第六章失业实施日期地区月最低工资标准(元月)小时最低工资标准(元时)年月山东年月河北年月内蒙古年月辽宁年月福建年月湖北年月黑龙江年月四川第六章失业第六章失业第六章失业排名城市月最低工资标准(元月)小时最低工资标准(元时)实施日期上海年月深圳年月杭州年月宁波年月广州年月温州年月第六章失业第六章失业第六章失业第六章失业福建最低工资标准及适用范围表slide*第六章失业年福建省非全日制用工小时最低工资标准及适用范围slide*第六章失业slide*现实中的最低工资:年月最低工资从$上涨到$。其结果是:其它研究表明:最低工资线上涨青少年失业率会上涨。失业率前后年第季度年第季度青少年单身母亲所有工人*TeensandsinglemothersaremorelikelytobeinminimumwagejobsthanworkersfromotherdemographicgroupsThesedatashowthatthesegroupsexperiencedhigherunemploymentaftertheminimumwagewasraisedinSeptemberTheseincreasesarenotduetoaggregateshocks,astheoverallunemploymentratewasthesameinbothperiods第六章失业slide*、工会和集体议价()工会利用垄断权保证其成员获得较高的工资。当工会工资超过均衡工资时就会产生失业。()已经被企业雇佣的工人是内部人他们的兴趣是保持高工资。()失业者即外部人他们可以接受低工资(因此对他们的需求大于供给他们会获得足够多的工作岗)。*Seepformorediscussionaboutinsidersandoutsiders第六章失业(a)工会部门(b)非工会部门第六章失业、效率工资()定义:效率工资是单位效率上总劳动成本最小处的工资水平即效率工资保证总劳动成本最低。slide**第六章失业()是关于高工资会提高工人生产率的理论:改善工人健康状况(尤其在发展中国家)减少工人轮换这是存在成本的吸引高素质的工人提高工人努力程度减少“偷懒”()提高了劳动生产率但也使劳动成本高于均衡工资水平。结果是:失业第六章失业slide*问题讨论:运用我们前面学到的知识提出一个或一组政策以降低自然失业率。注意:你的政策目标可以是摩擦性失业也可以是结构性失业。*Itisusefultopauseyourlectureatthispointandgivestudentsanopportunitytoapplywhatyou’vecoveredsofartoanswerthispolicyquestionPossibleanswers:Stopraisingthe(nominal)minimumwage,sothatitsrealvaluewillgraduallyerodetozeroRegulateunions(justlikeothermonopoliesareregulated)toreduceunions’impactonwagesReducethegenerosityofunemploymentinsuranceGovernmentemploymentagenciestoincreasetheaccessibilityofinformationaboutjobvacanciesandavailableworkersPublicfundingtohelpretrainworkersdisplacedfromjobsindecliningindustriesSuggestionsforconductingthediscussion:Ifyouaskforresponsesimmediatelyafterposingthequestion,itislikelythatasmallnumberofstudentswillvolunteertoparticipatethesamestudentsthatalwaysdo,theonesthatarethebestpreparedandorthequickestthinkersToelicitparticipationfromalargernumberofstudents,Isuggestthefollowing:PairstudentsupAllowminutesforthestudents,workingintheirpairs,tocomeupwithanswerstothequestionDuringthistime,circulatearoundtheroomandaskthepairsifyoucanbeofassistance,eithertohelpthemgetstartedorgivefeedbackonwhatthey’recomingupwithThen,reconvenetheclassandaskforvolunteersDoingthisincreasesthequantityandqualityofparticipation:studentswhowouldnototherwiseparticipatearemorelikelytodosobecausetheyhavehadtimetoformulatetheiranswersandhavehadachancetoruntheiranswersbyaclassmateAdditionally,evenstudentswhodon’tparticipatewillhaveatleasthadtheopportunitytodiscussthequestionwithoneotherstudent第六章失业自然失业率取决于:()劳动者结构的变化如果A市场的主要劳动力是青年B市场的主要劳动力是中年人两个市场中哪个市场的自然失业率较高?()政府政策的影响增加失业救济金、取消最低工资的规定等举措对自然失业率有什么影响?()技术进步因素第六章失业()劳动市场的组织状况如劳动力供求信息的完整与迅速性职业介绍与指导的完善与否职业培训的完善程度劳动力流动性的大小、寻找工作的成本高低等()劳动市场或行业差别性不同企业和行业之间劳动力需求的变动第六章失业slide*四、劳动市场经验:美国(一)美国的失业持续时间(间的平均数)失业周数占总失业人数的百分比这些工人失业时间占总失业人数失业时间数的百分比以上*Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(statsblsgov)andauthor’scalculationsHowtointerpretthisdata:Thesecondcolumnshowsthepercentageofallunemployedworkerswhosespelllastedthenumberofweeksshown(averageoverJanuarytoMay)ThenumberinthethirdcolumnisaratioThedenominatoristhetotalnumberofweeksspentunemployed,obtainedbymultiplyingthetotalnumberofunemployedpersonsbythenumberofweeksoftheaveragespellofunemploymentThenumeratoris,foreachcategory,thenumberofpeopleinthatcategorytimesthedurationoftheaveragespellofunemploymentforthatcategoryThus,thenumberinthelastcolumnistheshareoftotaltimespentunemployedattributedtoworkersinthatcategoryoftotaltimespentunemployedwasspentbypeoplewhowereunemployedforlessthanweeksoftotaltimespentunemployedisattributedtopeoplewhowereunemployedfororweeksorlongerThedataonthisslidearemorerecentthaninthetext(secondparagraphofp),butmakethesamepoint:Morespellsofunemploymentareshortterm()thanmediumterm()orlongterm()But,mostofthetimespentunemployedislongterm第六章失业slide*、数据说明:短期失业人数比中、长期失业人数多然而绝大多数的失业时间是由长期失业的失业时间组成。、长期失业可能是结构性失业和或者是由于劳动力在不同产业间的大量转移形成。*Regardingthepointaboutstructuralunemploymentandsectoralshifts:Structuralunemploymentworkersarewaitingforjobstobecomeavailable,buttherejustaren’tenoughjobstogoaroundhence,thiscanbelongtermunemploymentSectoralshiftsacrossvastlydifferentindustries,egashiftindemandfromtextilestosoftwaredesignobviously,jobsintheseindustriesrequirevastlydifferentskillsetsSectoralshiftscanoccuramongsimilarindustries(eg,demandshiftsfromdesktoptolaptopcomputers),butthisislesslikelytoproducelongtermunemployment第六章失业slide*美国实际和自然的失业率Uratechart失业率自然失业率占劳动力百分比dataCivilianUnemploymentRate,oflaborforce,seasonallyadjustedSource:USDepartmentofLabor,BureauofLaborStatisticsThenaturalrateisestimatedbyaveragingalltheunemploymentratesfromyearsearliertoyearslaterfutureunemploymentratesaresetatyearmonthXAxisUratenaturalUrateUratechartUnemploymentrateNaturalrateofunemploymentPercentoflaborforcedataCivilianUnemploymentRate,oflaborforce,seasonallyadjustedSource:USDepartmentofLabor,BureauofLaborStatisticsThenaturalrateisestimatedbyaveragingalltheunemploymentratesfromyearsearliertoyearslaterfutureunemploymentratesaresetatyearmonthXAxisUratenaturalUrate*Wesawthisgraphinthechapter’sintroductionInit,theestimatednaturalrateofunemploymentrosefrombelowinthestonearlyintheearlys,thenhasdeclinedtoperhapsoverthepasttwodecadesThenextfewslidesoffersomeexplanationsforthisbehavior,drawingonthetheoriespresentedinthischapter第六章失业第六章失业slide*(二)失业的趋势解释这种倾向:最低工资实际最低工资的趋势与自然失业率有相似的行为表现Minimumwagechartnominal(incurrentdollars)real(intoday'sdollars)trendinrealminwage$perhourdatasources:minimumwageDepartmentofLabor,EmploymentStandardsAdministrationCPIDeptofLabor,BureauofLaborStatisticsCPIminwageCPIminwageXaxisbaseintoday'sdollars*“intoday’sdollars”meansinMaydollarsThesmooth,lightbluelineisthetrendlinefortherealminimumwageThetrendintherealminimumwagerisesuntilthemidtolates,thenfallsThepeakinthistrendcomesafewyearsbeforethepeakinthenaturalrate,though(Weprobablyshouldn’tputtoomuchweightonthebehaviorofthetrendlineattheveryendofthesample,asitwasgeneratedbyExcelasacrudepolynomialtrendWewillneedafewmoreyearsofdatatodeterminethetrend’sbehaviorinthelatesthroughtoday)Here’sagoodwebsitewithinfoontheminimumwage,includingtablesofdatesitwasraisedandsoforth:http:wwwdolgovesaminwagemainhtmDepartmentofLabor,EmploymentStandardsAdministration第六章失业slide*解释这种倾向:工会成员从年代早期自然失业率与工会组织成员都有所下降。但从年代到大约年自然失业率上升而工会组织成员却在下降。工会成员(所选年份)年份占劳动力百分比*source:AFLCIOwebsite(http:wwwaflcioorguniondifferenceuniondiffhtm)Alsoseehttp:wwwlibumichedugovdocssteclabhtml#unionsgoodsetoflinkstoinfoonlaborunionshttp:statsblsgovnewsreleaseuniontochtmTheBLS’annualnewsreleaseofinfoonunionmembership,earningsEarlierinthechapter,wesawcrosssectionaldatathatshowedapositivecorrelationbetweentheunionwagepremiumandunionmembers’shareofthelaborforceacrossindustriesWewouldexpectthat,otherthingsequal,changesovertimeintheaggregateshareofunionsinemploymentshouldbeassociatedwithsimilarchangesinunions’impactonaveragewages,andhenceonthenaturalrateofunemploymentInplainEnglish,wewouldexpectthatthedeclineintheextentofunionizationshownonthisslidewouldcorrespondtoadeclineinthenaturalrateofunemploymentUnfortunatelyforthetheory,thisisonlytrueforthetimeperiodbeginningintheearlys,whenthenaturalratestartedcomingdownFromthesthrough,thenaturalraterose,butunionmembershipfellDoesthismeanthetheoryisnotrelevantNotnecessarily,asotherthings(otherdeterminantsofthenaturalrate)werenotconstantduringthistimeperiod第六章失业slide*解释这种倾向:部门性变动转移从年代中期开始石油价格趋稳劳动力的部门或地区转移开始减少。oilpricedata,CPIoilpricesxlsoilprice=spotpricefor'WestTexasIntermediate'base=indollarsbase=intoday'sdollarsCPIinflationyearmoXaxisoilpriceCPI"realoilprice"CPIrealoilpricefrommosagotimeserieschartofoilpricesincurrentdollars(nominal)intoday'sdollars(real)Oilprice(perbarrel)SheetSheet*Fromearlierinthechapter:SectoralshiftsareasourceofjobseparationsandleadtofrictionalunemploymentWewouldexpectthatadecreaseinthefrequencyandmagnitudeofsectoralshiftswouldbeassociatedwithalowerrateofjobseparations,lessfrictionalunemployment,andalowernaturalrateofunemploymentUnfortunately,thereisnosingle“indexofsectoralshocks”However,weknowthatlargechangesinoilpricesareonesourceofsectoralshocksAsignificantfallinthepriceofoilcausesadecreaseindemandforworkersatoilfieldsinOklahomaandTexas,andanincreaseindemandforworkersatfactoriesthatproduceSUVsAsignificantincreaseinoilpriceswoulddotheoppositeThegraphshowsdataonthepriceofoilsinceFirst,considertheperiodThepriceofoilintoday’sdollarsfluctuatedbetween$and$NowconsidertheperiodsinceTherealpriceofoilfluctuatedinamuchmorenarrowrange(from$to$,or,ifyouexcludetheonespikeduringtheGulfWar,from$to$)Mainpoint:Inthesuntil,sectoralshiftsweremoreprevalent,andthenaturalratewasrisingSince,sectoralshiftswerelessprevalent,andthenaturalratewasfalling第六章失业slide*解释这种倾向:人口统计学年代:婴儿潮时期的一代人正值年青时期。年青的工人们频繁地变换工作(这时s很高)。后期到现在:婴儿潮时期的一代人已经成年。中年的工人很少变换他们的工作(这时s很低)。*Fordetailsonthis,plusoneotherexplanationinvolvingproductivity,seepp第六章失业slide*五、劳动市场经验:欧洲失业率的上升失业率年份*Figureinthetext(p)第六章失业slide*(一)欧洲失业率的上升两种解释:、大多数欧洲国家实行内容丰富的社会保障计划、由于技术变化对劳动的需求由非熟练性转向熟练性这种需求的转移也发生在美国。但工资刚性在这里不是一个重要问题因此这种转移只是加大了熟练工人与非熟练工人间的工资差额而不是导致增加失业。*第六章失业(二)欧洲内部的各种失业、失业率在国与国之间变化显著、大多数失业率的差别是由于长期失业、不同的失业率与一国不同的劳动市场政策有关第六章失业对比于欧盟成员国奥地利(%)荷兰(%)和卢森堡(%)西班牙(%)、拉脱维亚()和立陶宛(%)失业率较高。与去年同期相比下降最大的是爱沙尼亚(%至%)拉脱维亚(%至%)和立陶宛(%至%)。希腊(%至%)、保加利亚(%至%)和斯洛文尼亚(%〜%)均达到升幅的最高。(年下半年)第六章失业年月至年月男性失业率从%下降到%女性失业率为。年月青年失业率在欧盟国和欧元区分别为%和%。年月它在两个地区的失业率约为%。最低青年失业率分别为荷兰(%)奥地利(%)和德国(%)。西班牙(%)、希腊(%)、立陶宛(%)和斯洛伐克(%)为青年失业率最高的几国。第六章失业slide*本章总结、自然失业率长期平均失业率或“稳定状态”的失业率决定于离职者和就职者的比率、摩擦性失业由于工人寻找工作耗费时间而形成的失业可能会于失业保障而有所增长*第六章失业slide*本章总结、结构性失业产生于工资刚性实际工资位于均衡工资水平之上原因:最低工资工会效率工资、失业持续时间大多数持续时间是短期的失业周数最长的主要集中在一小部分长期失业者中*第六章失业slide*本章总结、美国的自然失业率状况年代到年代早期上升然后下降可能的解释是:实际最低工资工会成员部门间劳动力流动的盛行以及婴儿潮时期的一代逐渐成熟、欧洲的失业从开始快速上升可能是由于那里内容丰富的失业保障和技术驱动的由非熟练向熟练转移的劳动需求。*第六章失业slide*本章作业(p)问题与应用:、、。*Exceptforthematerialoneconomicgrowth(Chaptersand),thischaptercompletesourstudyoftheeconomy’sbehaviorinthelongrun,whenpricesgenerallyareflexibleandmarketsclear*Thenaturalrateofunemploymentisthe“normal”unemploymentratetheeconomyexperienceswhenitisneitherinarecessionnoraboom*Section**figure,p*******SometimestheunemploymentcausedbysectoralshiftsissevereDuetoincreasingimportsofcheaperforeignmadetextiles,theUStextileindustryhasbeenindeclineforyearsManyworkersinthisindustryhavelostjobsManyoftheseworkersareintheirsandhaveworkedinthisindustryfordecadesSuchworkersareunlikelytohavetheskillsnecessarytogetjobsavailableinnewlyboomingindustries,andtheyarelesslikelytoinvestintheacquisitionofthenecessaryskillsforthesejobsHence,suchworkersareatgreaterriskforbecoming“discouragedworkers”*AllfiguresareindustrysharesinUSGDP“Otherindustry”includesconstructionandminingSource:WorldDevelopmentIndicators,WorldBank*Fromto,therearehugechangesinallfourcategoriesEventhe“tiny”categoryofagriculturedropsbymorethanhalf:fromtoofGDP*MostoftheexamplesonthisandthepreviousslidesarebigchangesthathaveoccurredovermanyyearsTheseexamplesgivestudentsagoodideaofwhatsectoralshiftsarePerhapsmoreimportantforthenaturalrate,though,arethemanysmallerchangesthatoccurmorefrequentlyOursisadynamiceconomy:thestructureofdemandisshiftingalmostcontinuously,duetochangesinpreferences,technology,andthelocationofproductionAsaresult,thereisanearcontinualflowofnewlyfrictionallyunemployedworkersSectoralshiftsaredistinctfromrecessions(whichalsocauseunemployment)Inrecessions,thereisageneralfallindemandacrossindustries,andtheunemploymentthatresultsiscyclicalSectoralshifts,though,arechangesinthecompositionofdemandacrossindustries,andleadtofrictionalunemploymentasdescribedabove*Youmightwantto“hide”(omit)thisslidefromyourpresentationifyouplanondoingtheclassdiscussioninSlide,whichasksstudentstothinkofthingsthegovernmentcandototrytoreducethenaturalrateofunemployment*Thetextincludesanicecasestudyonunemploymentinsurance(pp)Itdiscussesevidencethatunemploymentinsurancereducesthejobfindingrate**FigureonpAbbreviation:“eq’m”=equilibrium****TeensandsinglemothersaremorelikelytobeinminimumwagejobsthanworkersfromotherdemographicgroupsThesedatashowthatthesegroupsexperiencedhigherunemploymentaftertheminimumwagewasraisedinSeptemberTheseincreasesarenotduetoaggregateshocks,astheoverallunemploymentratewasthesameinbothperiods*Seepformorediscussionaboutinsidersandoutsiders**Itisusefultopauseyourlectureatthispointandgivestudentsanopportunitytoapplywhatyou’vecoveredsofartoanswerthispolicyquestionPossibleanswers:Stopraisingthe(nominal)minimumwage,sothatitsrealvaluewillgraduallyerodetozeroRegulateunions(justlikeothermonopoliesareregulated)toreduceunions’impactonwagesReducethegenerosityofunemploymentinsuranceGovernmentemploymentagenciestoincreasetheaccessibilityofinformationaboutjobvacanciesandavailableworkersPublicfundingtohelpretrainworkersdisplacedfromjobsindecliningindustriesSuggestionsforconductingthediscussion:Ifyouaskforresponsesimmediatelyafterposingthequestion,itislikelythatasmallnumberofstudentswillvolunteertoparticipatethesamestudentsthatalwaysdo,theonesthatarethebestpreparedandorthequickestthinkersToelicitparticipationfromalargernumberofstudents,Isuggestthefollowing:PairstudentsupAllowminutesforthestudents,workingintheirpairs,tocomeupwithanswerstothequestionDuringthistime,circulatearoundtheroomandaskthepairsifyoucanbeofassistance,eithertohelpthemgetstartedorgivefeedbackonwhatthey’recomingupwithThen,reconvenetheclassandaskforvolunteersDoingthisincreasesthequantityandqualityofparticipation:studentswhowouldnototherwiseparticipatearemorelikelytodosobecausetheyhavehadtimetoformulatetheiranswersandhavehadachancetoruntheiranswersbyaclassmateAdditionally,evenstudentswhodon’tparticipatewillhaveatleasthadtheopportunitytodiscussthequestionwithoneotherstudent*Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(statsblsgov)andauthor’scalculationsHowtointerpretthisdata:Thesecondcolumnshowsthepercentageofallunemployedworkerswhosespelllastedthenumberofweeksshown(averageoverJanuarytoMay)ThenumberinthethirdcolumnisaratioThedenominatoristhetotalnumberofweeksspentunemployed,obtainedbymultiplyingthetotalnumberofunemployedpersonsbythenumberofweeksoftheaveragespellofunemploymentThenumeratoris,foreachcategory,thenumberofpeopleinthatcategorytimesthedurationoftheaveragespellofunemploymentforthatcategoryThus,thenumberinthelastcolumnistheshareoftotaltimespentunemployedattributedtoworkersinthatcategoryoftotaltimespentunemployedwasspentbypeoplewhowereunemployedforlessthanweeksoftotaltimespentunemployedisattributedtopeoplewhowereunemployedfororweeksorlongerThedataonthisslidearemorerecentthaninthetext(secondparagraphofp),butmakethesamepoint:Morespellsofunemploymentareshortterm()thanmediumterm()orlongterm()But,mostofthetimespentunemployedislongterm*Regardingthepointaboutstructuralunemploymentandsectoralshifts:Structuralunemploymentworkersarewaitingforjobstobecomeavailable,buttherejustaren’tenoughjobstogoaroundhence,thiscanbelongtermunemploymentSectoralshiftsacrossvastlydifferentindustries,egashiftindemandfromtextilestosoftwaredesignobviously,jobsintheseindustriesrequirevastlydifferentskillsetsSectoralshiftscanoccuramongsimilarindustries(eg,demandshiftsfromdesktoptolaptopcomputers),butthisislesslikelytoproducelongtermunemployment*Wesawthisgraphinthechapter’sintroductionInit,theestimatednaturalrateofunemploymentrosefrombelowinthestonearlyintheearlys,thenhasdeclinedtoperhapsoverthepasttwodecadesThenextfewslidesoffersomeexplanationsforthisbehavior,drawingonthetheoriespresentedinthischapter*“intoday’sdollars”meansinMaydollarsThesmooth,lightbluelineisthetrendlinefortherealminimumwageThetrendintherealminimumwagerisesuntilthemidtolates,thenfallsThepeakinthistrendcomesafewyearsbeforethepeakinthenaturalrate,though(Weprobablyshouldn’tputtoomuchweightonthebehaviorofthetrendlineattheveryendofthesample,asitwasgeneratedbyExcelasacrudepolynomialtrendWewillneedafewmoreyearsofdatatodeterminethetrend’sbehaviorinthelatesthroughtoday)Here’sagoodwebsitewithinfoontheminimumwage,includingtablesofdatesitwasraisedandsoforth:http:wwwdolgovesaminwagemainhtmDepartmentofLabor,EmploymentStandardsAdministration*source:AFLCIOwebsite(http:wwwaflcioorguniondifferenceuniondiffhtm)Alsoseehttp:wwwlibumichedugovdocssteclabhtml#unionsgoodsetoflinkstoinfoonlaborunionshttp:statsblsgovnewsreleaseuniontochtmTheBLS’annualnewsreleaseofinfoonunionmembership,earningsEarlierinthechapter,wesawcrosssectionaldatathatshowedapositivecorrelationbetweentheunionwagepremiumandunionmembers’shareofthelaborforceacrossindustriesWewouldexpectthat,otherthingsequal,changesovertimeintheaggregateshareofunionsinemploymentshouldbeassociatedwithsimilarchangesinunions’impactonaveragewages,andhenceonthenaturalrateofunemploymentInplainEnglish,wewouldexpectthatthedeclineintheextentofunionizationshownonthisslidewouldcorrespondtoadeclineinthenaturalrateofunemploymentUnfortunatelyforthetheory,thisisonlytrueforthetimeperiodbeginningintheearlys,whenthenaturalratestartedcomingdownFromthesthrough,thenaturalraterose,butunionmembershipfellDoesthismeanthetheoryisnotrelevantNotnecessarily,asotherthings(otherdeterminantsofthenaturalrate)werenotconstantduringthistimeperiod*Fromearlierinthechapter:SectoralshiftsareasourceofjobseparationsandleadtofrictionalunemploymentWewouldexpectthatadecreaseinthefrequencyandmagnitudeofsectoralshiftswouldbeassociatedwithalowerrateofjobseparations,lessfrictionalunemployment,andalowernaturalrateofunemploymentUnfortunately,thereisnosingle“indexofsectoralshocks”However,weknowthatlargechangesinoilpricesareonesourceofsectoralshocksAsignificantfallinthepriceofoilcausesadecreaseindemandforworkersatoilfieldsinOklahomaandTexas,andanincreaseindemandforworkersatfactoriesthatproduceSUVsAsignificantincreaseinoilpriceswoulddotheoppositeThegraphshowsdataonthepriceofoilsinceFirst,considertheperiodThepriceofoilintoday’sdollarsfluctuatedbetween$and$NowconsidertheperiodsinceTherealpriceofoilfluctuatedinamuchmorenarrowrange(from$to$,or,ifyouexcludetheonespikeduringtheGulfWar,from$to$)Mainpoint:Inthesuntil,sectoralshiftsweremoreprevalent,andthenaturalratewasrisingSince,sectoralshiftswerelessprevalent,andthenaturalratewasfalling*Fordetailsonthis,plusoneotherexplanationinvolvingproductivity,seepp*Figureinthetext(p)***

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