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首页 The Greatest Trade Ever

The Greatest Trade Ever.pdf

The Greatest Trade Ever

trader
2011-09-03 0人阅读 举报 0 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《The Greatest Trade Everpdf》,可适用于经济金融领域

TheGreatestTradeEver:TheBehindthescenesStoryofHowJohnPaulsonDefiedWallStreetandMadeFinancialHistoryCoverTheGreatestTradeEver:TheBehindthescenesStoryofHowJohnPaulsonDefiedWallStreetandMadeFinancialHistoryTODADANDTOMOM,MYTEACHERS,MYFOUNDATIONTOMICHELLE,GABRIEL,ANDELIJAH,MYJOY,MYINSPIRATIONintroductionThetipwasintriguingItwasthefallof,financialmarketswerecollapsing,andWallStreetfirmswerelosingmassiveamountsofmoney,asiftheyweretryingtogivebackadecade’'sworthofprofitsinafewbrutalmonthsButasIsatatmydeskatTheWallStreetJournaltallyingthepain,atophedgefundmanagercalledtoraveaboutaninvestornamedJohnPaulsonwhosomehowwasscoringhugeprofitsMycontact,speakingwithequalpartsenvyandrespect,grabbedmewiththis:“"Paulson’'snotevenahousingormortgageguy…Anduntilthistrade,hewasrunofthemill,nothingspecial”"TherehadbeensomechatterthatafewlittleknowninvestorshadanticipatedthehousingtroublesandpurchasedobscurederivativeinvestmentsthatnowwerepayingoffButfewdetailshademergedandmysourcesweretoobusykeepingtheirfirmsafloatandtheircareersalivetoofferverymuchIbeganpiecingtogetherPaulson’'strade,awelcomerespitefromthegorydetailsofthelatestbankingfiascoCrackingPaulson’'smovesseemedatleastasinstructiveastheendlessmistakesofthefinancialtitansRidingthebushomeoneeveningthroughthegrittyNewJerseystreetsofNewarkandEastOrange,IdidsomequickmathPaulsonhadn’'tsimplymetwithsuccesshehadrungupthebiggestfinancialcoupinhistory,thegreatesttradeeverrecordedAllfromarankoutsiderintheworldofrealestateinvestingcoulditbeThemoreIlearnedaboutPaulsonandtheobstaclesheovercame,themoreintriguedIbecame,especiallywhenIdiscoveredhewasn’'taloneagroupofgutsy,colorfulinvestors,allwelloutsideWallStreet’'sestablishment,wascloseonhisheelsThesetradershadbecomeconcernedaboutaneraofloosemoneyandfinancialchicanery,andhadmadebillionsofdollarsofinvestmentstoprepareforameltdownthattheywerecertainwasimminentSomemadehugeprofitsandwon’'thavetoworkanotherdayoftheirlivesButotherssquanderedanearlyleadonPaulsonandstumbledatthefinishline,anhistoricprizejustoutofreachPaulson’'swinningsweresoenormoustheyseemedunreal,evencartoonishHisfirm,PaulsonCo,made$billionin,afigurethattoppedthegrossdomesticproductsofBolivia,Honduras,andParaguay,SouthAmericannationswithmorethantwelvemillionresidentsPaulson’'spersonalcutwasnearly$billion,ormorethan$millionadayThatwasmorethantheearningsofJKRowling,OprahWinfrey,andTigerWoodsputtogetherAtonepointinlate,abrokercalledtoremindPaulsonofapersonalaccountworth$million,anaccountnowsoinsignificantithadslippedhismindJustasimpressive,Paulsonmanagedtotransformhistradeinandearlyindramaticform,scoring$billionmoreforhisfirmandclients,aswellas$billionforhimselfThemovesputPaulsonandhisremarkabletradealongsideWarrenBuffett,GeorgeSoros,BernardBaruch,andJesseLivermoreinWallStreet’'spantheonoftradersTheyalsomadehimoneoftherichestpeopleintheworld,wealthierthanStevenSpielberg,MarkZuckerberg,andDavidRockefellerSrEvenPaulsonandtheotherbearishinvestorsdidn’'tforeseethedegreeofpainthatwouldresultfromthehousingtsunamianditsrelatedglobalripplesByearly,lossesbyglobalbanksandotherfirmswerenearing$trillionwhilestockmarketinvestorshadlostmorethan$trillionAfinancialstormthatbeganinriskyhomemortgageslefttheworstglobaleconomiccrisissincetheGreatDepressioninitswakeOverastunningtwoweekperiodinSeptember,theUSgovernmentwasforcedtotakeovermortgagelendinggiantsFannieMaeandFreddieMac,alongwithhugeinsurerAmericanInternationalGroupInvestorswatchedhelplesslyasonetimeWallStreetpowerLehmanBrothersfiledforbankruptcy,woundedbrokeragegiantMerrillLynchrushedintothearmsofBankofAmerica,andfederalregulatorsseizedWashingtonMutualinthelargestbankfailureinthenation’'shistoryAtonepointinthecrisis,panickedinvestorsofferedtobuyUSTreasurybillswithoutaskingforanyreturnontheirinvestment,hopingtofindsomewheresafetohidetheirmoneyBythemiddleof,arecordoneintenAmericanswasdelinquentorinforeclosureontheirmortgagesevencelebritiessuchasEdMcMahonandEvanderHolyfieldfoughttokeeptheirhomesduringtheheartofthecrisisUShousingpricesfellmorethanpercentfromtheirpeakIncitiessuchasMiami,Phoenix,andLasVegas,realestatevaluesdroppedmorethanpercentSeveralmillionpeoplelosttheirhomesAndmorethanpercentofUShomeownersheldmortgagesthatwereunderwater,orgreaterthanthevalueoftheirhouses,thehighestlevelinseventyfiveyearsAmidthefinancialdestruction,JohnPaulsonandasmallgroupofunderdoginvestorswereamongthefewwhotriumphedoverthehubrisandfailuresofWallStreetandthefinancialsectorButhowdidagroupofunsunginvestorspredictameltdownthatblindsidedtheexpertsWhywasitJohnPaulson,arelativeamateurinrealestate,andnotacelebratedmortgage,bond,orhousingspecialistlikeBillGrossorMikeVranoswhopulledoffthegreatesttradeinhistoryHowdidPaulsonanticipateWallStreet’'stroubles,evenasHankPaulson,theformerGoldmanSachschiefwhorantheTreasuryDepartmentandsharedhissurname,missedthemEvenWarrenBuffettoverlookedthetrade,andGeorgeSorosphonedPaulsonforatutorialDidtheinvestmentbanksandfinancialprostrulybelievethathousingwasinaninexorableclimb,orwerethereotherreasonstheyignoredorcontinuedtoinflatethebubbleAndwhydidtheverybankerswhocreatedthetoxicmortgagesthatunderminedthefinancialsystemgethurtmostbythemThisbook,basedonmorethantwohundredhoursofinterviewswithkeyparticipantsinthedaringtrade,aimstoanswersomeofthesequestions,andperhapsprovidelessonsandinsightsforfuturefinancialmaniasprologueJohnPaulsonseemedtoliveanambitiousman’'sdreamAttheageoffortynine,Paulsonmanagedmorethan$billionforhisinvestors,aswellas$millionofhisownwealthTheofficeofhisMidtownManhattanhedgefund,locatedinatrendybuildingonthandMadison,wasdecoratedwithdozensofAlexanderCalderwatercolorsPaulsonandhiswife,Jenny,aprettybrunette,splittheirtimebetweenanupscaletownhouseonNewYork’'sfashionableUpperEastSideandamultimilliondollarseasidehomeintheHamptons,aplaygroundoftheaffluentwherePaulsonwasactiveonthesocialcircuitTrimandfit,withclosecroppeddarkhairthatwasbeginningtothinatthetop,Paulsondidn’'tenjoyexceptionallooksButhiswarmbrowneyesandimpishsmilemadehimseemapproachable,evenfriendly,andPaulson’'sunlinedfacesuggestedsomeoneseveralyearsyoungerThewindowofPaulson’'scornerofficeofferedadazzlingviewofCentralParkandtheWollmanskatingrinkThismorning,however,hehadlittleinterestingrandviewsPaulsonsatathisdeskstaringatanarrayofnumbersflashingoncomputerscreensbeforehim,grimacing“"Thisiscrazy,”"hesaidtoPaoloPellegrini,oneofhisanalysts,asPellegriniwalkedintohisofficeItwaslatespringofTheeconomywasonaroll,housingandfinancialmarketswerebooming,andthehedgefunderawasinfullswingButPaulsoncouldn’'tmakemuchsenseofthemarketAndhewasn’'tmakingmuchmoney,atleastcomparedwithhisrivalsHehadbeeneclipsedbyagroupofmuchyoungerhedgefundmanagerswhohadamassedhugefortunesoverthelastfewyearsandwerespendingtheirwinningsinoverthetopwaysPaulsonknewhedidn’'tfitintothatworldHewasasolidinvestor,carefulanddecidedlyunspectacularButsuchadescriptionwasalmostaninsultinaworldwhereinvestorschasedthehottesthand,andtraderscouldrecalltheinvestmentreturnsoftheircompetitorsaseasilyastheycouldtheirchildren’'sbirthdaysEvenPaulson’'sstyleofinvesting,featuringlonghoursdevotedtointensiveresearch,seemedoutmodedThebiggesttradersemployedhighpoweredcomputermodelstodictatetheirmovesTheyaccountedforamajorityoftheactivityontheNewYorkStockExchangeandagrowingshareofWallStreet’'swealthOthergutsyhedgefundmanagersborrowedlargesumstomakeriskyinvestments,orgrabbedpositionsinthesharesofpubliccompaniesandbulliedexecutivestotakestepstosendtheirstocksflyingPaulson’'striedandtruemethodswereviewedasquaintItshouldhavebeenPaulsonatopWallStreet,hisfriendsthoughtPaulsonhadgrownupinafirmlymiddleclassneighborhoodinQueens,NewYorkHereceivedearlyinsightintotheworldoffinancefromhisgrandfather,abusinessmanwholostafortuneintheGreatDepressionPaulsongraduatedatophisclassatbothNewYorkUniversityandHarvardBusinessSchoolHethenlearnedatthekneesofsomeofthemarket’'stopinvestorsandbankers,beforelaunchinghisownhedgefundinPensiveanddeeplyintelligent,Paulson’'sfortewasinvestingincorporatemergersthatheviewedasthemostlikelytobecompleted,amongthesafestformsofinvestingWhenthesoftspokenPaulsonmetwithclients,theysometimesweresurprisedbyhislimphandshakeandrestrainedmannerItwasunusualinanindustryfullofblusterHisabilitytoexplaincomplextradesinstraightforwardtermsleftsomewonderingifhisstrategieswereroutine,evensimpleYoungerhedgefundtraderswenttielessanddressedcasually,feelingconfidentintheirabilitiesthankstotheirsoaringprofitsandgrowingstaturePaulsonstuckwithdarksuitsandmutedtiesPaulson’'slifestyleoncehadbeenmuchflashierAbachelorwellintohisforties,Paulson,knownasJPamongfriends,wasatirelesswomanizerwhochasedtheglamourandbeautyofyoungmodels,likesomanyothersonWallStreetButunlikehispeers,Paulsonemployedanunusuallymodeststrategywithwomen,muchashedidwithstocksHewaskind,charming,witty,andgentlemanly,andasaresult,hemetwithfrequentsuccessIn,though,Paulsongrewtiredofthechaseand,attheageoffortyfour,marriedhisassistant,anativeofRomaniaTheyhadsettledintoaquietdomesticlifePaulsoncuthistieswithwilderfriendsandspentweekendsdotingonhistwoyoungdaughtersBy,PaulsonhadreachedhistwilightyearsinacceleratedWallStreet–careertimeHestillwasatit,though,stillhungryforabigtradethatmightprovehismettleItwasthefourthyearofaspectacularsurgeinhousingprices,thelikesofwhichthenationneverhadseenHomeownersfeltflush,enjoyingthesoaringvaluesoftheirhomes,andbuyersbiduppricestopreviouslyunheardoflevelsRealestatewasthetalkofeverycocktailparty,soccermatch,andfamilybarbecueFinancialbehemothssuchasCitigroupandAIG,NewCenturyandBearStearns,werescoringbigprofitsTheeconomywasroaringEveryoneseemedtobemakingmoneyhandoverfistEveryonebutJohnPaulson,thatisTomany,PaulsonseemedbadlyoutoftouchJustmonthsearlier,hehadbeenridiculedatapartyinSouthamptonbyadashingGermaninvestorincredulousatbothhismeagerreturnsandhisresistancetohousing’'salluresPaulson’'sownfriend,JeffreyGreene,hadamassedacollectionofprimeLosAngelesrealestatepropertiesvaluedatmorethan$million,alongwithacoterieofcelebrityfriends,includingMikeTyson,OliverStone,andParisHiltonButbeneaththemarket’'splacidsurface,thetectonicplateswerequietlyshiftingAfinancialearthquakewasabouttoshaketheworldPaulsonthoughtheheardfaroffrumblingsrumblingsthatthehedgefundheroesandfrenziedhomebuyerswereignoringPaulsondumpedhisfund’'sriskierinvestmentsandbeganlayingbetsagainstautosuppliers,financialcompanies,anythinglikelytogodowninbadtimesHealsoboughtinvestmentsthatservedascheapinsuranceincasethingswentwrongButtheeconomychuggedeverhigher,andPaulsonCoenduredoneofthemostdifficultperiodsinitshistoryEvenbondsofDelphi,thebankruptautosupplierthatPaulsonassumedwouldtumble,suddenlysurgedinprice,risingpercentoverseveraldays“"Thismarketislikeacasino,”"heinsistedtoonetraderathisfirm,withunusualirritationHechallengedPellegriniandhisotheranalysts:“"Isthereabubblewecanshort”"PAOLOPELLEGRINIfelthisownmountingpressuresAyearearlier,thetall,stylishanalyst,anativeofItaly,hadcalledPaulson,lookingforajobDespitehisamiablenatureandrazorsharpintellect,PellegrinihadbeenafailureasaninvestmentbankerandflamedoutataseriesofotherbusinessesHe’'dbeenluckytogetafootinthedooratPaulson’'shedgefundtherehadbeenanopeningbecauseajunioranalystleftforbusinessschoolPaulson,anoldfriend,agreedtotakehimonNow,Pellegrini,justayearyoungerthanPaulson,wascompetingwithagroupofhungrytwentyyearoldskidsthesameageashisownchildrenHisearlyworkforPaulsonhadbeenpedestrian,herealized,andPellegrinifelthisshortleashatthefirmgrowingtighterSomehow,PellegrinihadtofindawaytokeephisjobandjumpstarthiscareerAnalyzingreamsofhousingdataintothenight,hunchedoveradeskinhissmallcubicle,PellegrinibegantodiscoverproofthattherealestatemarkethadreacheduntenablelevelsHetoldPaulsonthattroublewasimminentReadingtheevidence,PaulsonwasimmediatelyconvincedPellegriniwasrightThequestionwas,howcouldtheyprofitfromthediscoveryDauntingobstaclesconfrontedthemPaulsonwasnohousingexpert,andhehadnevertradedrealestateinvestmentsEvenifhewasright,Paulsonknew,hecouldlosehisentireinvestmentifhewastooearlyinanticipatingthecollapseofwhathesawasarealestatebubble,orifhedidn’'timplementthetradeproperlyAnynumberoflegendaryinvestors,fromJesseLivermoreinthestoJulianRobertsonandGeorgeSorosinthes,hadfailedtosuccessfullynavigatefinancialbubbles,costingthemdearlyPaulson’'schallengeswereevenmoreimposingItwasimpossibletodirectlybetagainstthepriceofahomeJustasimportant,arobustinfrastructurehadgrowntosupporttherealestatemarket,asanetworkoflowcostlenders,homeappraisers,brokers,andbankersworkedtokeepthemoneyspigotflowingOnanationalbasis,homepricesneverhadfallenoveranextendedperiodSomerivalsalreadyhadbeenburnedtryingtoanticipateanendofhousing’'sbullmarketMoreover,unbeknownsttoPaulson,competitorswerewellaheadofhim,threateninganypotentialwindfallPaulsonmighthavehopedtomakeInSanJose,California,threethousandmilesaway,DrMichaelBurry,adoctorturnedhedgefundmanager,wasbusytryingtoplacehisownmassivetradestoprofitfromarealestatecollapseInNewYork,abrashtradernamedGregLippmannsoonwouldbegintomakebearishtrades,whileteachinghundredsofPaulson’'scompetitorshowtowageragainsthousingExpertsredirectedPaulson,pointingoutthathehadnobackgroundinhousingorsubprimemortgagesButWallStreethadunderestimatedhimPaulsonwasnosingleshitter,afraidofriskApartofhimhadbeenwaitingfortheperfecttrade,onethatwouldprovehimtobeoneofthegreatestinvestorsofallAnticipatingahousingcollapseandallthatitmeantwasPaulson’'schancetohittheballoutoftheparkandwintheacclaimhedeservedItmightbehislastchanceHejusthadtofindawaytopulloffthetradeAndchasethefrothybubbles,WhiletheworldisfulloftroublesWilliamButlerYeatsAGLIMPSEOFWALLSTREET’'STRADINGFLOORSANDINVESTMENTofficesinwouldrevealagroupofrevelersenjoyingaraging,multiyearpartyInonecorner,makingawholelotofnoise,werethehedgefundmanagers,aparticularlyexuberantbunch,somewithwellcut,tailoredsuitsanddesignershoes,butothersabittipsy,withuglylampshadesontheirheadsHedgefundsgainedpublicconsciousnessinthenewmillenniumwithanunusualmystiqueandoutsizedswaggerButhedgefundsactuallyhavebeenaroundsince,whenAlfredWinslowJones,anAustralianbornwriterforFortuneMagazineresearchinganarticleaboutinnovativeinvestmentstrategies,decidedtotakeastabatrunninghisowninvestmentpartnershipMonthsbeforethemagazinehadachancetopublishhispiece,Jonesandfourfriendsraised$,andborrowedmoneyontopofthattocreateabiginvestmentpoolRatherthansimplyownstocksandbeexposedtothewhimsofthemarket,though,Jonestriedto“"hedge,”"orprotect,hisportfoliobybettingagainstsomeshareswhileholdingothersIfthemarkettumbled,Jonesfigured,hisbearishinvestmentswouldhelpinsulatehisportfolioandhecouldstillprofitIfJonesgotexcitedabouttheoutlookofGeneralMotors,forexample,hemightbuysharesoftheautomaker,andoffsetthemwithanegativestanceagainstsharesofrivalFordMotorJonesenteredhisbearishinvestmentsbyborrowingsharesfrombrokersandsellingthem,hopingtheyfellinpriceandlatercouldbereplacedatalowerlevel,atacticcalledashortsaleBorrowandsellsharesofFordat$,pocket$,ThenwatchForddropto$,buysharesfor$,,andhandthestockbacktoyourbrokertoreplacethesharesyou’'dborrowedThe$differenceisyourprofitBybothborrowingmoneyandsellingshort,JonesmarriedtwospeculativetoolstocreateapotentiallyconservativeportfolioAndbylimitinghimselftofewerthanonehundredinvestorsandacceptingonlywealthyclients,JonesavoidedhavingtoregisterwiththegovernmentasaninvestmentcompanyHechargedclientsaheftypercentofanygainsheproduced,somethingmutualfundmanagerscouldn’'teasilydobecauseoflegalrestrictionsThehedgefundconceptslowlycaughtonWarrenBuffettstartedoneafewyearslater,thoughheshuttereditin,waryofaloomingbearmarketIntheearlys,agroupofboldinvestors,includingGeorgeSoros,MichaelSteinhardt,andJulianRobertson,scoredhugegains,highlightedbySoros’'swagerthatthevalueoftheBritishpoundwouldtumble,amovethatearned$billionforhisQuantumhedgefundLikeJones,theseinvestorsacceptedonlywealthyclients,includingpensionplans,endowments,charities,andindividualsThatenabledthefundstoskirtvariouslegalrequirements,suchassubmittingtoregularexaminationsbyregulatorsThehedgefundhonchosdisclosedverylittleofwhattheywereupto,eventotheirownclients,creatinganairofmysteryaboutthemEachofthelegendaryhedgefundmanagerssuffereddeeplossesinthelatesorin,however,muchasHallofFameballplayersoftenstumbleinthelatteryearsoftheirplayingdays,sendingamessagethateventhe“"stars”"couldn’'tbestthemarketforeverThecollapseofmega–hedgefundLongTerm

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