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Building a flexible supply chain for uncertain times.pdf

Building a flexible supply chai…

上传者: jinyao121 2011-08-20 评分1 评论0 下载9 收藏10 阅读量929 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《Building a flexible supply chain for uncertain timespdf》,可适用于生产运营领域,主题内容包含BuildingaflexiblesupplychainforuncertaintimesThe“bullwhipeffect”meansthatd符等。

BuildingaflexiblesupplychainforuncertaintimesThe“bullwhipeffect”meansthatdistortionsindatacascadethroughacompany’ssuppliersBusinessesmustremainflexibletoprotectthemselvesChristophGlatzel,StefanHelmcke,andJoshuaWineMARCHoperationsTheglobaldownturn’sspeedandseverityhavesignificantimplicationsforthesupplychainsofglobalmanufacturersAmongsteelmakers,chemicalplayers,andsomehightechcompanies,forinstance,orderbooksandthereforepricesareundertremendouspressureOutputinthesteelindustrydroppedbyanunprecedentedpercentandpricesbyaboutpercentfromJunetoDecemberThatkindofvolatilitywreakshavocontraditionalsupplychainplanning:theprocessfordeterminingproductionlevels,rawmaterialpurchases,transportcapacity,andothervitalfactors,largelybyexamininghistoricalpatternsofdemand“Everymonth,weproducearollingthreeyearplan,”saidonemetalsexecutiverecently,“butrightnowIcan’tseeeventhreeweeksahead”Indeed,theforecastingchallengeisparticularlyacutebecauseinmanyupstreamindustrialsettings,assupplypartnersalongthechainanticipatethatdemandwillfall,thesupplychainappearstobedecouplingfromdownstreamconsumptionthefocusofmostforecastingmodelsAgainstthisbackdrop,seniorexecutivesshouldreconsidertheimplicationsofthe“bullwhipeffect,”firstidentifiedinthesandknowntogenerationsofbusinessstudentsasthe“beergame”Inthisclassicphenomenon,distortionsininformationsnowballalongthelengthofacompany’ssupplychain,propellingrelativelysmallchangesinendconsumerdemandintomuchlargerandlesspredictableswingsindemandfurtherupstream(ExhibitaandExhibitb)HowrelevantisthebullwhipeffecttodayConsidertheUSinventorytosalesratio,whichrosesharplyfromJunetoDecemberExhibit,bearingasclosearesemblancetoapileupExhibitaFourcausesofthebullwhipeffectDemandforecastupdatingPlannersupdatetheirforecastsforfuturedemandbyextrapolatingfromsmallfluctuationsincurrentdemandWhenextrapolatedoverlongleadtimes,thesesmallfluctuationscanhavelargeeffects(seeExhibit)OrderbatchingInsteadofmakingfrequent,smallorders,companiesbatchordersintolessfrequent,largeonestypically,toreduceproduct,logistics,ororderprocessingcostsPeriodicbatchorderingcreatesahighdegreeofvariabilityindemand,amplifyingthebullwhipeffectPricefluctuationAttimes,companiesanticipatethatpriceswillincrease(eg,becausethemanufacturerisrunningashorttermdiscount)Managersmaythenpurchaseitemsinadvanceofwhentheyareneeded(forwardbuy)totakeadvantageofcurrentlowpricesEssentially,thesamethingmayhappeninreverseTheresultingvariationsinthesizeandtimingofpurchasesdonotreflecttherealvariationsinconsumptionRationingandshortagegamingWhendemandexceedssupply,manufacturersrationtheirproductsAttemptingtogamethesystem,customersordermorethantheyneed,hopingtoachievetherequiredamountWhenthesupplyreturnstonormal,customerscancelexaggeratedorders,oftenleavinghugeunwantedinventoriesinthehandsofmanufacturersSource:HauLLee,VPadmanabhan,andSeungjinWhang,“Thebullwhipeffectinsupplychains,”SloanManagementReview,,Volume,Number,pp–Inthebullwhipeffect,firstidentifiedinthes,demandsignalsareamplifiedastheymoveupasupplychainfromendconsumertorawmaterialssupplierThebeergamesimulation,firstdevelopedinthesatMIT’sSloanSchoolofManagement,isalaboratorysimulationforproducinganddistributingasinglebrandofbeerThreemaincharactersplay:aretailer,awholesaler,andabrewery’smarketingdirectorThegame’spointistoshowtheconsequencesofdecisionsthatplayersmakewhentryingtomaximizetheirprofitsFormoreaboutthebullwhipeffect,seeHauLLee,VPadmanbhan,andSeungjinWhang,“Thebullwhipeffectinsupplychains,”SloanManagementReview,,Volume,Number,pp–EricKing高亮accidentasanychartyou’lleversee,emphasizesthesignificantreverberations,upanddowntheline,ofcancelledordersascompaniesretrenchManyofthebullwhipeffect’sclassictriggersnowoperateinfullforceRisingcommoditypricesbeforethecrisis,forexample,ledtothestockpilingofexcessinventoryNow,fallingcommoditypricesgivecustomersanincentivetopostponeordersandawaitbetterdealsMeanwhile,anewfactorthedashforcashexacerbatestoday’sdifficulties:theevaporationoftraditionalfinancingchannelsleavescompaniesdesperatetoshedinventory,reduceworkingcapital,andsquirrelawaycashOfcourse,onecompany’sworkingcapitalreductionsareanother’scancelledordersThegoodnewsisthatdestockinghaslimitsOveranextendedperiod,upstreamordersmustequaldownstreamonesInthecaseofsteel,forexample,unlessenduserdemanddropsbythesamepercentasdidoutputbetweenJuneandDecembernotimpossible,butbeyondcurrentdemandforecastsofantopercentreductionthisyearordersmusteventuallyriseYetasthebullwhipmetaphorimplies,theupswingcouldberapidinsteelorotherindustriesthathavecomplex,multitiersupplychainsUnpreparedonescouldmakecompaniesneglecttheircustomers’needsandlosesharetomorenimblecompetitorsHowshouldmanufacturersrespondFirst,theymustmakesupplychaindecisionsmorequickly:inthefaceofunprecedentedvolatiledemand,businessasusualcalendarsforforecasting,budgeting,andplanningwon’tdoCompaniesthatadhererigidlytounrealisticplansmayfindthemselvessittingonpilesofinventoryorfightingpricewarsSomecompaniesareestablishingsupplychain“warrooms”tomakefastdecisionsacrossfunctionsPopulatedbyleadersfromproduction,procurement,logistics,andsalesandfurnishedwiththelatestdataonpurchasing,production,orders,anddeliveriestheseteamsmeetweeklyorevendailytodeviseneartermoperationalplansAchemicalcompanythatcreatedsuchateamcutinventorylevelsbypercentinjusttenweeks,whilemaintaininghighExhibitbThebullwhipeffect:DemandforecastupdatingMobilephoneretailerConsumerdemanddropsRetailerreducesnextmonth’sorderbyRawmaterialsmanufacturerComponentmanufacturerMobilephonemanufacturerRetailerhas,excessphones,unanticipatedphonesleftoverinstoresattheendofthemonth,aswellas,toomanyarrivinginthenextmonthsThedemandsignalisfurthermagnifiedasitmovesupstream––Mobilephonesupplychainexample–Retaileranticipatesselling,handsetsamonthrequires,instockand,onorderfrommanufacturer–SupplychainpathEricKing高亮EricKing高亮EricKing高亮EricKing高亮levelsofcustomerserviceWhat’smore,byspeedingupdecisions,thecompanyincreasedthefrequencybutreducedthesizeofitsordersfromkeysuppliersGreatercrossfunctionalcooperationhelpeditnotonlytoidentifynewopportunitiesforusingoutofspecmaterials(andthusinventoryonhand)butalsotomakebetterinformeddecisionsaboutwhereandwhentodiscountoverstockedproductsAscompaniesrethinkthewaytheyplan,theymustalsolearnhowtoactontheresultingdecisionsmorequicklyandflexiblyWhenrawmaterialandtransportcostsandtheuseofequipmentshiftdramatically,forexample,companiesmustbepreparedtorevisitwellunderstoodtradeoffsinvolving,say,minimumbatchsizesoroptimalprocessyieldsThingscanchangequickly,asaplasticgoodsmanufacturerfoundafterworkinghardtoreducetherawmaterialcontentofitsproductsItsstrategyofacceptingslightlyhigherdefectratesinreturnforsavingsontheseinputshasbecomedecidedlylessadvantageousastheircostplummetedWhatcompaniesneednowistheabilitytodealwithchangingconditionsbymakingproductionprocessesmoreflexibleshiftingmanufacturinglocationsquicklyasshippingcostschange,forexampleOnesourceoflessonsonflexibilitycomesfromtheprocessindustries,likechemicalsorcement,whichhavelongadjustedtheirmixoffuels(suchascoal,fueloils,orbiomass)accordingtochangingpricesManufacturersthatcanadjustprocessyieldsrapidlytosuitchangingconditionsshouldhaveasignificantadvantageoverlessflexiblecompetitorsMoreeffectivecollaborationwithkeysuppliersisimportantaswelladvicethat’ssurelyrelevantthroughoutthebusinesscycle,butparticularlynowthatvolatilitycouldunderminetheirsurvivalImprovedcollaborationneednotdependonexpensiveintegratedITsystemsinourexperience,suchprojectsgenerallyhavedisappointingresultsSimplemoves,suchasestablishingdirectcommunicationfromplannertoplannerandrunningforecastingprocessesjointlywithkeysuppliers,canreduce“signaling”noiseandraiseservicelevelsSmallerbutmorefrequentordersareoftenaneasywaytoreducevolatilityindemandandthereforeinventorylevelsSoisabetterunderstandingofwhetherreduceddemandresultsfromdestockingorfromthebehaviorofendconsumersExhibitThebullwhipatworkRatiooftotalbusinessinventoriestosales,dataadjustedforseasonal,holiday,andtradingdaydifferencesbutnotforpricechangesSource:USCensusBureauRelatedarticles“Freeingupcashfromoperations”“UpgradingRDinadownturn”“Timetorethinkoffshoring”“Maintainingthecustomerexperience”“BringingbestpracticetoChina”EricKing高亮EricKing高亮EricKing高亮EricKing高亮Manufacturersshouldviewtoday’senvironmentasanopportunityNowtheycanmakechangesrenegotiatingcontracts,consolidatingmanufacturinganddistributionnetworks,launchingaggressiveproductivityprogramsthatmightnothavebeenfeasibleearlierandmaysoonbedifficultagainRemember,thebullwhipmetaphorimpliesthatthefutureupturnindemandcouldcomerapidly,evenifdemanddoesn’treturntoitslevelbeforethedownturnFormanyorganizations,areturntogrowthcould,paradoxically,closethewindowofopportunitytoimprovethesupplychainQChristophGlatzelisaprincipalinMcKinsey’sCologneoffice,StefanHelmckeisaprincipalintheViennaoffice,andJoshuaWineisanassociateprincipalintheTelAvivofficeCopyrightMcKinseyCompanyAllrightsreserved

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