中信证券2011下半年通讯行业投资分析

18 11 70 6 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2011ᑈ 6᳜ 29᮹ 䆕ࠌⷨお᡹ਞg㸠Ϯⷨおg䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ� 䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ 2011ᑈϟञᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 乎ᑨ䍟࢓ˈ䕃⹀ݐ໛ üüᡧԣѦ㘨বሔϢᡩ䌘ಲछঠЏ㒓 ⬉ֵ䖤㧹˖Ёᗻ˄㓈ᣕ˅� 䗮ֵ䆒໛˖ᔎѢ໻Ꮦ˄㓈ᣕ˅ ᡩ䌘㽕⚍ Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ™ ⿏ࡼѦ㘨㔥ेᇚ䖜ܹ⟚থᓣ๲䭓䰊↉DŽ៥Ӏ乘ᳳ೑ݙᑈ᳿ 3G ⏫䗣⥛䖒ࠄ 13.6%DŽҢ㒜ッⳟˈ3᳜೑ݙ 3G䫔ଂ㒜ッऴ᠔᳝㒜ッऴ↨Ꮖ㒣䍙䖛 30%ˈ1 ᄷᑺܼ⧗ᱎ㛑㒜ッ⏫䗣⥛䖥 25% Ң˗⏴䘧ⳟ ⼒ˈӮ⏴䘧㒜ッ䫔ଂ䞡⚍ᓔྟ䕀 ৥ 3G˗Ң䳔∖ⳟˈ᭄᥂⍜䌍䳔∖ᖿ䗳๲䭓ˈ㘨䗮 1 ᄷᑺ 3G ᠋ഛ⌕䞣๲䭓 140%˗Ңᑨ⫼ⳟˈᖂमǃ㉇㘞ǃᖂֵㄝ⿏ࡼѦ㘨㔥ᑨ⫼ਜ⦄⟚থᓣ๲䭓ˈ ৘⾡⿏ࡼѦ㘨㔥ᑨ⫼ሖߎϡかDŽ ™ 䕃˄䖤㧹Ϣ᳡ࡵ˅˖ ⿏ࡼѦ㘨ڀ⫳㸠Ϯবሔᴎ䘛DŽ⿏ࡼѦ㘨ᯊҷˈ㘨䗮⣀ѿ ᳔Շ 3G ࠊᓣঞѻϮӬ࢓ˈᢹ᳝ܙ䎇ᯊ䯈にষˈ㘨䗮 3G ⫼᠋ǃϮ㒽ᣕ㓁๲ 䭓䍟࢓Ꮖ៤ˈ᳝ ᳯ៤Ў⿏ࡼѦ㘨বሔⱘ᳔໻䌶ᆊDŽ⿏ࡼѦ㘨㔥ᑨ⫼Ꮧሔ߱៤ˈ ⾥໻䆃亲߁׳ᱎ㛑䇁䷇Ḍᖗᡔᴃ᳝ᳯᓎゟ⿏ࡼѦ㘨㔥ϞⱘᮄൟֵᙃѸѦᑇ ৄDŽ ™ ⹀˄䗮ֵ䆒໛˅˖ ᡩ䌘ಲछ偅ࡼϮ㒽৥དDŽϟञᑈ㸠Ϯᡩ䌘ಲछ᳝ᳯᕫࠄ䖯 ϔℹ⹂䅸ˈ乘ᳳϝ໻䖤㧹ଚܼᑈᡩ䌘๲䭓 12%DŽ䆒໛ϮܼᑈⲜ߽᳝ᳯ䕗 1 ᄷᑺᯢᰒད䕀ˈ2ᄷᑺফ᢯ᷛ㨑ᅲᰮⱘᕅડϮ㒽䕀ད࡯ᑺ䕗ᔅˈ乘ᳳ 3ᄷᑺ 䍋Ϯ㒽ᇚ᳝ᯢᰒಲछDŽℸ໪ ᭄ˈ᥂⍜䌍ⱘ݈䍋ҹঞ⍋໪ゲѝ࡯ⱘᣕ㓁ᦤछЎ 䆒໛Ϯⱘᣕ㓁๲䭓ᦤկ㡃དᬃᩥDŽЏ䆒໛ଚ݋໛ԄؐϢϮ㒽ֱ䱰ঠ䞡Ӭ࢓DŽ ™ ᱃⇨ᄤ㸠ϮᴎӮ⢍೼DŽܝ㑸ࠄ᠋ᇚ៤Ўᆑᏺ᥹ܹЏ⌕ Āˈܝ䖯䪰䗔ā䍟࢓ϡ ℶDŽܝ᥹ܹッᡩ䌘催๲䭓ৃᓹ㸹ܝӴ䕧ᡩ䌘ⱘⷁᳳ䇗ᭈ ˈܝ䗮ֵܼᑈᡩ䌘ҡ ᳝ᳯᅲ⦄ 25%ⱘ๲䭓 ˈܝ᥹ܹջॖଚ᳔ЎফⲞDŽ㔥Ӭ㸠ϮফⲞѢ⿏ࡼ㔥㒰㾘 ῵ঞϮࡵ໡ᴖᑺᦤछˈ㸠Ϯ๲䭓ᣕ㓁ᗻདϨ䲚Ёᑺ䍟ѢᦤछDŽ ™ 亢䰽ᦤ⼎DŽ⬉ֵᡩ䌘ԢѢ乘ᳳǃҎ࡯៤ᴀϞछ䖛ᖿㄝDŽ ™ ᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹DŽĀᡞᦵ⿏ࡼѦ㘨বሔᴎ䘛ˈᡧԣ䗮ֵᡩ䌘ಲछᴎӮāᰃϟञᑈⱘ ϸᴵᡩ䌘Џ㒓DŽЁ೑㘨䗮ᰃ⿏ࡼѦ㘨বሔᴎ䘛ϟⱘ佪㽕ফⲞ㗙ˈ݀ ৌ෎ᴀ䴶 Ꮖ䎼䖛ᢤ⚍ ᖿˈ䗳৥Ϟⱘ䍟࢓Ꮖ⹂ゟ ᥼˗㤤݋᳝⿏ࡼѦ㘨ᑇৄ┰࡯ⱘ⾥໻䆃 亲DŽᡩ䌘ಲछ᳝ᳯ೼ϟञᑈᕫࠄ䖯ϔℹ⹂䅸 䆒ˈ໛ᵓഫϮ㒽ད䕀᳝ᳯᏺᴹᵓ ഫϞछᴎӮ Џˈ䆒໛ଚᏆ݋໛ԄؐϢϮ㒽ֱ䱰 ᥼ˈ㤤Ё݈䗮䆃ǃ⛑☿䗮ֵㄝ˗ ݇⊼ܝ᥹ܹǃ㔥Ӭㄝ᱃⇨ᄤ㸠ϮDŽ EPS˄ܗ˅ PE 㙵⼼ㅔ⿄ 㙵Ӌ˄ܗ˅ 10A 11E 12E 10A 11E 12E 䆘㑻 Ё೑㘨䗮 5.44 0.06 0.11 0.30 94 52 18 фܹ Ё݈䗮䆃 26.18 1.13 1.40 1.75 23 19 15 фܹ ⛑☿䗮ֵ 25.77 0.85 1.07 1.41 30 24 18 фܹ ⾥໻䆃亲 36.90 0.40 0.73 1.62 92 50 23 фܹ ϝ㓈䗮ֵ 14.41 0.47 0.70 0.97 31 21 15 фܹ ढ᯳߯Ϯ 13.75 0.33 0.52 0.70 42 27 20 фܹ ᢧ㓈ֵᙃ 18.10 0.51 0.63 0.92 36 29 20 фܹ ᮹⍋䗮䆃 40.00 1.01 1.43 2.00 40 28 20 ๲ᣕ Ѽ䗮ܝ⬉ 24.33 0.79 1.36 1.70 31 18 14 ๲ᣕ Ё໽⾥ᡔ 22.47 1.36 1.40 1.84 16 16 12 ๲ᣕ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖windˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ ⊼˖㙵ӋЎ 2011ᑈ 6᳜ 17᮹ᬊⲬӋ ᅿ֞⍯� ⬉䆱˖010-60838159 䚂ӊ˖gjt@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120037 㘨㋏Ҏ˖䰜ࠥ� ⬉䆱˖010-60838585 䚂ӊ˖chenjian@citics.com Ⳍᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄� -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20 10 12 20 11 01 20 11 01 20 11 02 20 11 02 20 11 03 20 11 03 20 11 04 20 11 04 20 11 05 20 11 05 20 11 06 䗮ֵ˄Ёֵ˅ Ϟ䆕㓐ড়ᣛ᭄ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 Ⳍ݇ⷨお� 1 ljˊ2011ᑈ᯹ᄷㄪ⬹ӮЏ乬ᡩ䌘ü⿏ࡼѦ 㘨ϧ乬NJ............................... 2011-03-09 2 ljˊ䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ 2011ᑈ 1᳜䎳䏾᡹ਞü䖢᥹ 3G⫼᠋催๲䭓Ϣᡩ䌘໡㢣NJ.2011-02-01 䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ 2011ᑈϟञᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ Ⳃ ᔩ ᡩ䌘㘮⛺ ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 㸠Ϯಲ乒˖᭄᥂Ϯࡵ֗ᬊܹǃᡩ䌘㡃ᗻᕾ⦃ .......................................................................................................... 2 䖤㧹Ϯ˖ᬊܹਜ⦄䖥ᑈ᳔དⱘ๲䭓ᗕ࢓ .......................................................................................................... 2 ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘ಲछ .............................................................................................................................................. 4 䖤㧹Ϣ᳡ࡵ˖⿏ࡼѦ㘨ࡴ䗳㸠Ϯব䴽 ...................................................................................................................... 5 ⿏ࡼѦ㘨ᖿ䗳݈䍋ˈ᥼ࡼ㸠Ϯ䕀ൟ .................................................................................................................. 5 㘨䗮˖㸠Ϯব䴽ⱘ᳔໻ফⲞ㗙 .......................................................................................................................... 9 Āϔᆊ⣀໻āḐሔᓔྟᡁ䕀 ............................................................................................................................ 14 ⿏ࡼѦ㘨˖ᮄᑇৄᴎ䘛 .................................................................................................................................... 15 䆒໛Ϯ˖ᡩ䌘৥དᏺࡼϮ㒽ᦤछ ............................................................................................................................ 16 ⍋໪˖ᡩ䌘৥ད ................................................................................................................................................ 16 ೑ݙ˖2011ᑈᡩ䌘᳝ᳯᯢᰒಲछ ................................................................................................................... 16 㓐ড়䆒໛ǃܝ᥹ܹǃ㔥Ӭ㸠ϮফⲞ᳈Ўᯢ⹂ ................................................................................................ 19 㸠Ϯᡩ䌘䆘㑻Ϣㄪ⬹ ................................................................................................................................................ 22 ᵓഫ㸼⦄˖䖤㧹Ϯ㦋䍙乱ᬊⲞ ........................................................................................................................ 22 㸠ϮԄؐ∈ᑇ .................................................................................................................................................... 23 㸠Ϯ䆘㑻 Ā˖䖤㧹āЁᗻ Āˈ䆒໛āᔎѢ໻Ꮦ ................................................................................................ 23 ᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹˖ᡞᦵ㸠Ϯবሔ໻ᴎ䘛ˈᡧԣᡩ䌘ಲछПᴎӮ............................................................................. 24 䞡⚍݀ৌ .................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Ё೑㘨䗮˖ᮄᯊҷˈᮄ⥟㗙 ............................................................................................................................ 26 Ё݈䗮䆃˖ܼϮࡵǃܼ⧗࣪Ꮧሔᯢ᱄ˈᣕ㓁៤䭓ৃᳳ ................................................................................ 27 ⾥໻䆃亲˖៬⬹⏙᱄ˈ催๲䭓ᴹЈ ................................................................................................................ 28 ϝ㓈䗮ֵ˖Ӭ⾔ⱘ㔥㒰Ӭ࣪㽚Ⲫϧᆊ ............................................................................................................ 29 ᦦ೒Ⳃᔩ ೒ 1˖2000ᑈҹᴹ⬉ֵϮࡵᬊܹঞ๲䭓⥛............................................................................................................... 3 ೒ 2˖2009ᑈҹᴹ⬉ֵ᳜ᑺᬊܹঞৠ↨๲䭓........................................................................................................... 3 ೒ 3˖2001ҹᴹ⿏ࡼ⬉䆱⫼᠋๲䭓ᚙމ................................................................................................................... 3 ೒ 4˖2009ᑈҹᴹ⿏ࡼ⬉䆱᳜ᑺᮄ๲⫼᠋ᚙމ....................................................................................................... 3 ೒ 5˖⿏ࡼ⬉䆱⏫䗣⥛ᦤछ㟇 64% ........................................................................................................................... 3 ೒ 6˖೎䆱ϟ䰡䍟࢓䍟㓧 ........................................................................................................................................... 4 ೒ 7˖2009ᑈҹᴹ೎ᅮ⬉䆱ᮄ๲⫼᠋ᚙމ............................................................................................................... 4 ೒ 8˖ᆑᏺᑈᑺ㌃䅵ᮄ๲⫼᠋ᚙމ............................................................................................................................ 4 ೒ 9˖2009ᑈҹᴹᮄ๲ᆑᏺ⫼᠋ᚙމ....................................................................................................................... 4 䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ 2011ᑈϟञᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ ೒ 10˖2002-2010ᑈ೑ݙ⬉ֵ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘ᚙމ ................................................................................................... 5 ೒11 2˖011ᑈ1-4᳜⬉ֵ᳜ᑺ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘乱ৠ↨๲䭓28.6% ................................................................................... 5 ೒ 12˖3Gᯊҷ䗮䆱ҙᰃ᠟ᴎ㒜ッ䇌໮ᐌ⫼ࡳ㛑ⱘϔ䚼ߚ .................................................................................... 5 ೒ 13˖⍋໪Џ⌕䖤㧹ଚ᭄᥂Ϯࡵऴᬊ↨ℷ೼ᖿ䗳ᦤछ.......................................................................................... 5 ೒ 14˖2011ᑈ 1ᄷᑺ࣫㕢Џ㽕ᱎ㛑㒜ッ㋏㒳ⱘऩ᭄᳜᥂⌕䞣 ............................................................................. 6 ೒ 15˖NTT Docomo乘ᳳ 2011䋶ᑈ⌕䞣๲䭓㗏ס ................................................................................................ 6 ೒ 16˖㘨䗮 3G⫼᠋⌕䞣⍜䌍ᖿ䗳๲䭓˄ऩԡ˖MB/᳜˅.................................................................................... 6 ೒ 17˖2011ᑈ 1ᄷᑺܼ⧗ᱎ㛑᠟ᴎߎ䋻䞣๲䭓 85%............................................................................................. 6 ೒ 18˖2011ᑈ 1ᄷᑺܼ⧗ᱎ㛑㒜ッ⏫䗣⥛Ꮖ䖥 1/4............................................................................................... 7 ೒ 19˖Ѧ㘨㔥ঞ᭄᥂Ϯࡵᇚ៤Ў䖤㧹ଚᬊܹⱘЏ㽕ᴹ⑤ ...................................................................................... 7 ೒ 20˖1ᄷᑺ AT&T᭄᥂ᬊܹঞ᭄᥂ ARPUᣕ㓁๲䭓.......................................................................................... 7 ೒ 21˖1ᄷᑺ NTT Docomoⱘ᭄᥂ ARPU䍙䖛䇁䷇ ARPU .................................................................................. 7 ೒ 22˖1ᄷᑺ KDDIⱘ᭄᥂ ARPU䍙䖛䇁䷇ ARPU .............................................................................................. 7 ೒ 23˖NTT Docomo 乘ᳳ㓐ড় ARPU᳝ᳯԈ䱣᭄᥂Ϯࡵ๲䭓㗠ℶ䎠ಲछ ......................................................... 8 ೒ 24˖㟇 2011ᑈ 4᳜೑ݙ 3G⏫䗣⥛䖒ࠄ 7.6%.................................................................................................... 8 ೒ 25˖೑ݙ᳜ᑺᮄ๲⿏ࡼ⫼᠋Ё 3G⫼᠋ऴ↨Ꮖ䍙䖛 50%................................................................................... 8 ೒ 26˖೑ݙ⿏ࡼ⫼᠋ঞ 3G⫼᠋๲䭓乘⌟............................................................................................................... 9 ೒ 27˖ϝ໻䖤㧹ଚϡৠ 3Gࠊᓣ᠔ᬃᣕⱘϟ㸠䗳⥛ঞᇍᑨⱘϮࡵ㛑࡯ ............................................................... 9 ೒ 28˖⿏ࡼ䗮ֵϮѻϮ䫒⼎ᛣ೒-Ңܼ⧗ሖ⃵ⳟ䖤㧹ଚাᰃѻϮ䫒ⱘ᥹ফ㗙................................................... 10 ೒ 29˖2009ᑈܼ⧗WCDMA⫼᠋ऴ 3G⫼᠋↨՟䖒 76%.................................................................................. 10 ೒ 30˖ܼ⧗ 3G㔥㒰䚼㕆⢊މ................................................................................................................................. 10 ೒ 31˖㘨䗮㔥㒰Ϣ㒜ッⱘणৠⓨ䖯㛑࡯᳔ᔎˈᭈԧ∈ᑇ䕗⿏ࡼ LTE㟇ᇥ乚ܜ 5ᑈ ....................................... 11 ೒ 32˖HSPA+Ў ITU 4Gᷛޚ ................................................................................................................................. 11 ೒ 33˖2011ᑈ㘨䗮 3G⫼᠋催๲䭓ⱘࡼ࡯ߚᵤ .................................................................................................... 12 ೒ 34˖㘨䗮㑶ㅍޔ߽⍺๲䭓乘⌟............................................................................................................................ 14 ೒ 35˖㘨䗮᳜ᑺޔ๲⫼᠋˄2G+3G˅ӑ乱ᣕ㓁Ϟछ............................................................................................ 15 ೒ 36˖3Gᏺࡼ㘨䗮 ARPUؐℶ䎠ಲछ˄ऩԡ˖ܗ˅ ......................................................................................... 15 ೒ 37˖2011ᑈ 4᳜ϝ໻䖤㧹ଚ⿏ࡼ⫼᠋Ꮦഎӑ乱 ............................................................................................... 15 ೒ 38˖2011ᑈ 4᳜ϝ໻䖤㧹ଚ 3G⫼᠋Ꮦഎӑ乱 ................................................................................................ 15 ೒ 39˖⾥໻䆃亲Ϯࡵথሩ䰊↉ঞⲜ߽῵ᓣߚᵤ.................................................................................................... 16 ೒ 40˖乘ᳳϝ໻䖤㧹ଚϞᏖ݀ৌ 2011ᑈ䌘ᴀᓔᬃ๲䭓 7.9%˄ϡ৿䲚ಶᡩ䌘˅ ............................................. 17 ೒ 41˖2011ᑈ䖤㧹ଚ䌘ᴀᓔᬃ᳝ᳯ๲䭓 11.7%ˈ೑ݙᘏ⬉ֵ䌘ᴀᓔᬃ᳝ᳯ๲䭓 16%.................................... 17 ೒ 42˖೑ݙ⬉ֵ䌘ᴀᓔᬃ䍄࢓ঞ㚠ৢ䘏䕥............................................................................................................ 18 ೒ 43˖Ё݈䗮䆃೑ݙᬊܹ๲䭓ব࣪Ϣ೑ݙ⬉ֵ䌘ᴀᓔᬃ䍄࢓㋻ᆚⳌ݇ ............................................................ 18 ೒ 44˖Ḍᖗ䆒໛ଚᬊܹ๲䭓Ϣ⬉ֵ䌘ᴀᓔᬃ㋻ᆚⳌ݇ˈ1ᄷᑺ᳝ᯊ⒲ ............................................................. 18 ೒ 45˖ᆑᏺछ㑻᥼ࡼܝ㔥ⓨ䖯˖᥹ܹ㔥ܝ㑸࣪ᓔਃ+Ӵ䕧㔥໻छ㑻.................................................................. 19 ೒ 46˖ܝ䗮ֵ㋏㒳Ḛ೒ ........................................................................................................................................... 19 ೒ 47˖ܝ㑸᥹ܹⱘ޴⾡ᮍᓣˈFTTHℷ៤ЎЏ⌕................................................................................................. 20 ೒ 48˖䖲ᑈᣕ㓁໻䞣ᡩ䌘ᔶ៤њᎼ໻ⱘ㔥㒰ᄬ䞣䌘ѻ........................................................................................ 21 ೒ 49˖ᑈ߱㟇Ҟ⬉ֵ䖤㧹˄A㙵Ꮦഎ˅䎥䌶໻Ⲭ ................................................................................................ 22 ೒ 50˖ᑈ߱㟇Ҟ䗮ֵ䆒໛䎥䕧໻Ⲭ........................................................................................................................ 22 ೒ 51˖3Gᯊҷ㘨䗮ձ᥂WCDMAӬ࢓ৃ㦋ᕫঠ䞡Ӌؐᦤछ ............................................................................ 24 䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ 2011ᑈϟञᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 㸼ḐⳂᔩ 㸼 1˖1-4᳜೎ᅮᴀഄϢ⿏ࡼᴀഄ䗮䆱䞣↨䕗 ......................................................................................................... 4 㸼 2˖㘨䗮ᄷᑺⲜ߽乘⌟ ......................................................................................................................................... 12 㸼 3˖㘨䗮⿏ࡼϮࡵথሩ݇䬂ᣛᷛ؛䆒Ϣ乘⌟...................................................................................................... 13 㸼 4˖㘨䗮೎㔥Ϯࡵথሩ݇䬂ᣛᷛ؛䆒Ϣ乘⌟...................................................................................................... 13 㸼 5˖㘨䗮㑶ㅍᬊܹ乘⌟ ......................................................................................................................................... 13 㸼 6˖㘨䗮㧹䖤ᬃߎऴᬊ↨᳝ᳯᖿ䗳ϟ䰡.............................................................................................................. 14 㸼 7˖ᣝ䖤㧹ଚߚ㾷ⱘ 2011ᑈ䌘ᴀᓔᬃ䅵ߦঞবࡼॳ಴ߚᵤ ............................................................................ 17 㸼 8˖ᣝᡩ䌘乍Ⳃߚ㾷ⱘ 2011ᑈϝ໻䖤㧹ଚ䌘ᴀᓔᬃ䅵ߦঞবࡼॳ಴ ............................................................ 17 㸼 9˖2011ᑈܝ䗮ֵ㸠Ϯᡩ䌘᳝ᳯ๲䭓 25%......................................................................................................... 20 㸼 10˖FTTH(X)⫼᠋ঞᇍᑨᡩ䌘䞣乘⌟ ................................................................................................................ 21 㸼 11˖ܝ᥹ܹϡৠ⦃㡖ᡩ䌘⌟ㅫ............................................................................................................................ 21 㸼 12˖Ёֵ㒚ߚ㸠Ϯ⍼䎠ᐙ ................................................................................................................................... 22 㸼 13˖䗮ֵᵓഫԄؐ∈ᑇ ....................................................................................................................................... 23 㸼 14˖䞡⚍ϞᏖ݀ৌⲜ߽乘⌟ঞᡩ䌘䆘㑻............................................................................................................ 25 㸼 15˖Ё೑㘨䗮Ⲝ߽乘⌟ ....................................................................................................................................... 26 㸼 16˖Ё݈䗮䆃Ⲝ߽乘⌟ ....................................................................................................................................... 27 㸼 17˖⾥໻䆃亲Ⲝ߽乘⌟ ....................................................................................................................................... 28 㸼 18˖ϝ㓈䗮ֵⲜ߽乘⌟ ....................................................................................................................................... 29 䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ 2011ᑈϟञᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2011ᑈ 6᳜ 29᮹ 1 ᡩ䌘㘮⛺ ⿏ࡼѦ㘨㔥ⱘ݈䍋ᓩথ⬉ֵ㸠ϮҢ䇁䷇৥᭄᥂䕀ൟⱘ໻বሔ ৠˈᯊᏺᴹᮄⱘϮᗕ⦃๗ ᡞˈᦵ⿏ࡼѦ㘨ᴎ 䘛ⱘ݀ৌᇚ㦋ᕫᎼ໻៤ࡳDŽ „ ⿏ࡼѦ㘨ਜ⦄ࡴ䗳থሩᗕ࢓DŽҢ㒜ッⳟˈ3 ᳜೑ݙ 3G 䫔ଂ㒜ッऴ᠔᳝㒜ッऴ↨Ꮖ㒣䍙䖛 30%ˈ1 ᄷᑺܼ⧗ᱎ㛑㒜ッ⏫䗣⥛䖥 25%ᷛᖫᱎ㛑㒜ッ䖯ܹ᱂ঞ࣪ᢤ⚍ˈᖙᇚࡴᖿ⿏ࡼѦ㘨䖯⿟˗Ң⏴䘧 ⳟˈ⼒Ӯ⏴䘧㒜ッ䫔ଂ䞡⚍ᓔྟ䕀৥ 3G˗Ң䳔∖ⳟˈ᭄᥂⍜䌍䳔∖ᖿ䗳๲䭓ˈ㘨䗮 1 ᄷᑺ 3G ᠋ ഛ⌕䞣๲䭓 140%ˈ㗠೼ 3Gܜ㸠೑ᆊབ᮹ᴀ݊ 1ᄷᑺ᭄᥂ϮࡵᬊܹᏆ䍙䖛䇁䷇ˈ࣫㕢ᱎ㛑㒜ッ⫼ ᠋ⱘ᳜ഛ⌕䞣⍜㗫䍙䖛 400MB˗Ңᑨ⫼ⳟˈᖂमǃ㉇㘞ǃᖂֵㄝ⿏ࡼѦ㘨㔥ᑨ⫼ਜ⦄⟚থᓣ๲䭓ˈ ৘⾡⿏ࡼѦ㘨㔥ᑨ⫼ሖߎϡかDŽ៥Ӏ乘ᳳ೑ݙᑈ᳿ 3G⏫䗣⥛䖒ࠄ 13.6%ˈेᇚ䖯ܹ㾘῵࣪催䗳๲ 䭓ᳳDŽ „ ⿏ࡼѦ㘨᥼ࡼ䖤㧹Ϯ䕀ൟˈᕫ⌕䞣㗙ᕫ໽ϟDŽ⿏ࡼѦ㘨ᯊҷˈ䖤㧹ϮᇚҢ䇁䷇偅ࡼ䕀৥᭄᥂偅ࡼˈ ᭄᥂Ϯࡵᬊܹᖙᇚ䍙䍞䗮䆱Ϯࡵˈ䖭ϔ䍟࢓Ꮖ೼᮹ᴀㄝ 3Gܜ㸠೑ᆊᕫࠄॄ䆕DŽ䕀বⱘ㒧ᵰᖙᰃ᭄ ᥂⌕䞣ⱘᲈ๲ ⫼ˈ᠋ԧ偠ᇚҢᔎ䇗䆱ࡵԧ偠䕀বЎᔎ䇗᭄᥂ԧ偠 䇕ˈ㛑ᦤկ催䋼䞣ⱘ⌕䞣ㅵ䘧ǃ㒥 ᅮདⱘ㒜ッˈ䇕ህӮ㚰ߎDŽ „ ⿏ࡼѦ㘨ϡㄝĀ⿏ࡼāˈ 㘨䗮᳝ᳯ៤Ўᮄᯊҷⱘ໻䌶ᆊDŽᯊ࢓䗴㣅䲘ˈ⌕䞣ᯊҷ㘨䗮⣀ѿ᳔Շ 3G ࠊᓣঞѻϮӬ࢓᳝ᳯ៤Ўᮄᯊҷⱘ䌶ᆊDŽܼ⧗ᬃᣕ㘨䗮᠔⫼ⱘWࠊᓣ㔥㒰ӑ乱䍙䖛 70%ˈ⫼᠋䍙 䖛 70%ˈ䖭އᅮњ䖭ϾѻϮ䫒ⱘ䖤䕀ᰃⳳℷ催ᬜⱘˈ᮴䆎Ң㔥㒰ⓨ䖯㛑࡯ǃ㒜ッ᱂ঞ䗳ᑺˈ䖬ᰃ ᑨ⫼㗠㿔ˈ㘨䗮᠔೼ⱘWࠊᓣѻϮ䫒䛑ᰃ䍄ᕫ᳔ᖿⱘDŽݡ㗙ˈ⿏ࡼѦ㘨ϡㄝĀ⿏ࡼāˈ ⿏ࡼѦ㘨䍞 ᰃࡴ䗳থሩ ⬭ˈ㒭Ё⿏ࡼⱘᯊ䯈䍞ᰃᇥDŽЁ⿏ࡼेՓᔧࠡ໻㾘῵䚼㕆 LTEˈ݊ 㒜ッ៤❳㟇ᇥг㽕ࠄ 2015ᑈ ᳈ˈԩމ⿏ࡼ LTE᳾ᖙ㚰䖛㘨䗮⦄೼ⱘHSPA+ 㗠˗ҙҙ 3ᑈৢ೑ݙ 3G⏫䗣⥛᳝ᳯ᥹䖥 50%ˈ 㢹 3Gথሩ䖛ञЁ⿏ࡼ䛑᮴⊩䖯ܹЏ⌕ˈ䙷㘨䗮᮴⭥ᇚ㒻㓁Џᇐৢ㓁ᏖഎDŽ „ 3G Ꮖ✊᥼ࡼ䖤㧹ϮゲѝḐሔᓔྟ䞡ᮄߦߚDŽ2G ᯊҷˈ⿏ࡼǃ㘨䗮ǃ⬉ֵ೼⿏ࡼ⬉䆱ᮄ๲⫼᠋Ꮦ എϞⱘӑ乱ߚ߿Ў 60.5%ǃ13.2%ǃ26.2%˄ 2009ᑈ᭄᥂˅ˈ ࠄⳂࠡ䖭ϔӑ乱ᏆⓨবЎ 50.0%ǃ21.6%ǃ 28.4%˄2011 ᑈ 4 ᳜ӑ᭄᥂˅˗ 㗠೼ 3G ᏖഎϞˈ㘨䗮ⱘӑ乱ᦤछ᳈Ўᯢᰒˈ݊Ꮖ㦋ᕫ䖥 40%ⱘᅲ 䰙Ꮦഎӑ乱DŽ „ 㘨䗮Ꮖ䖯ܹᬊ㦋ᳳˈϮࡵǃϮ㒽Ϟछ䍟࢓ᯢ⹂DŽ2009 ᑈ݀ৌਃࡼ 3G ໻㾘῵ᡩܹˈ⦄೼催ᡩܹᳳ Ꮖ䖛ˈⲜ߽ℷ䍄ߎԢ䈋DŽेՓ೼催㸹䌈⢊ᗕϟˈ݀ৌ 1ᄷᑺᏆ✊ᅲ⦄߽⍺䕀ℷˈϨਜ⦄㸹䌈⥛ǃ䌍 ⫼⥛ϟ䰡䍟࢓ˈᷛᖫ㘨䗮Ꮖ䖯ܹϮ㒽ᬊ㦋ᳳDŽϮ㒽䗤ᄷ৥དˈ៥Ӏ乘ᳳϟञᑈᰒ㨫ᦤछˈ᳾ᴹѨᑈ ߽⍺໡ড়๲䭓⥛催䖒 85%DŽ „ ⿏ࡼѦ㘨ᑇৄଚ⏅݋┰࡯DŽফⲞѢ⿏ࡼѦ㘨ᓔᬒᗻ๲ᔎˈ෎Ѣ⿏ࡼѦ㘨ⱘᮄൟᑇৄℷ೼ѻ⫳DŽA 㙵ᏖഎЁ ⾥ˈ໻䆃亲ⱘᱎ㛑䇁䷇ᡔᴃᰃ⿏ࡼѦ㘨ᯊҷᦤछҎᴎѸѦᬜ⥛ⱘ᳝ᬜ᠟↉ Ϩˈৃ㸡⫳ߎᮄ ൟⱘֵᙃѸѦᑇৄˈ݀ৌ೼䆹乚ඳ⏅݋থሩ┰࡯DŽ ঺ϔᮍ䴶 ᭄ˈ᥂⍜䌍ⱘ݈䍋Ў䖤㧹ଚᏺᴹᬊܹ๲䭓Ꮰᳯˈ֗ Փ䖤㧹ଚ೼᭄᥂ᮍ䴶ⱘᡩ䌘ᣕ㓁䎳䖯DŽℸ໪ˈ 㸠Ϯⱘ⍋໪ゲѝ࡯ҡ೼ᣕ㓁ᦤछDŽϟञᑈ䆒໛Ϯᡩ䌘㭈㮣ᴎӮDŽ „ Ϟञᑈᬊܹǃᡩ䌘Ꮖ⦄णৠϞछ࢓༈DŽফⲞѢ 3Gǃᆑᏺϸ໻᭄᥂㉏Ϯࡵⱘ๲䭓ᏺࡼˈҞᑈ 1-4᳜ ܼ೑⬉ֵϮᬊܹৠ↨๲䭓 9.4%ˈ⬉ֵϮᬊܹਜ⦄ߎ䖥ᑈ᳔དⱘ๲䭓ᗕ࢓DŽϢℸৠᯊˈ䆒໛Ϯ೼㒣 ग़ 2009ᑈᎼ䞣ᡩ䌘ǃ䱣П 2010ᑈ໻ᐙ䇗ᭈৢˈҞᑈԈ䱣᭄᥂Ϯࡵ๲䭓㗠䞡⦄๲䭓П࢓DŽҞᑈ 1-4 ᳜ܼ೑⬉ֵ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘ৠ↨๲䭓 28.6%DŽ „ Џ䆒໛ଚ݋໛ԄؐϢϮ㒽ֱ䱰Ӭ࢓DŽ៥Ӏ߸ᮁҞᑈ⬉ֵϮᡩ䌘᳝ᳯᅲ⦄ϸԡ᭄๲䭓ˈЏ䆒໛ଚᰒ 㨫ফⲞ˗ৠᯊЏ䆒໛ଚⱘ⍋໪ᠽᓴҡ೼㒻㓁ˈϮ㒽᳝䍙乘ᳳⱘৃ㛑ᗻDŽЁ݈䗮䆃Ⳃࠡ 2011 ᑈ PE Ў 18Xˈ໘Ѣग़৆ԢԡˈԄؐأԢˈ㗠Ϯ㒽๲䭓ⱘ⹂ᅮᗻ䕗催ˈᡩ䌘Ӌؐ䕗催DŽ 䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ 2011ᑈϟञᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2011ᑈ 6᳜ 29᮹ 2 „ ܝ᥹ܹǃ㔥Ӭ㸠Ϯ᱃⇨ᣕ㓁DŽܝ䗮ֵܼᑈᡩ䌘๲䭓ҡৃⳟདˈ乘ᳳ㸠Ϯᡩ䌘๲䭓 25%ˈ݊Ё᥹ܹ ջ๲䭓㑺 50%ˈأ䞡Ѣܝ᥹ܹⱘ᮹⍋䗮䆃ǃᮄ⍋ᅰফⲞᯢᰒDŽ⛑☿䗮ֵ㱑✊ফ㌃ѢӴ䕧ⱘ䰊↉ᗻ ϟ⒥ Ԛˈ᥹ܹッⱘ催๲䭓Ꮖৃֱ䆕݀ৌϮ㒽ᅲ⦄ᣕ㓁䕗ᖿⱘ๲䭓DŽ㔥Ӭ㸠ϮফⲞѢ㔥㒰㾘῵ǃ໡ᴖ ᑺⱘᦤछҹঞ᭄᥂Ϯࡵⱘ݈䍋ˈϮࡵ䞣ᖿ䗳๲䭓ˈ㸠Ϯ๲䭓ᣕ㓁ᗻདˈ݇⊼ढ᯳߯Ϯǃϝ㓈䗮ֵǃ Ϫ㑾哢߽ㄝDŽ „ ℸ໪ˈЁᇣ݀ৌゲѝ࡯ᦤछᏺᴹⱘ៤䭓ᗻᴎӮҡৃ݇⊼DŽབ໻ᆠ⾥ᡔǃϝ㓈䗮ֵǃϪ㑾哢߽ㄝ݀ৌDŽ 㸠ϮԄؐǃ䆘㑻Ϣᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ „ Ԅؐ݋᳝਌ᓩ࡯DŽ䗮ֵ䆒໛ᭈԧԄؐ䇗㟇 2011ᑈ 24x PEⱘ∈ᑇˈᇸ݊Џ䆒໛ⱘԄؐҙЎ 20xˈ໘ Ѣग़৆䕗Ԣ∈ᑇ 䗮ˈᐌ೼䌘ᴀᓔᬃ๲䭓䕗໮ⱘᑈӑ䆒໛ᵓഫⱘԄؐ∈ᑇ೼ 25~30x PEⱘ∈ᑇ 䕗ˈད ⱘ㒚ߚ㸠Ϯৃ䖒ࠄ᳈催ⱘԄؐ∈ᑇDŽ䖤㧹Ϯᮍ䴶ˈЁ೑㘨䗮߮䖯ܹⲜ߽ಲछᳳ 2ˈ011ᑈ PEԄؐ䕗 催ˈԚ䱣ⴔϮ㒽ⱘ催๲䭓 PEϟ䰡䕗ᖿ˗Ϩ݀ৌᔧࠡ PBЎ 1.6XˈԄؐأԢ˗Ⳍᇍ݀ৌ᳾ᴹ៤䭓ぎ 䯈੠Ϯ㒽๲䗳㗠㿔ˈ݀ৌԄؐ∈ᑇҡ᳝䕗໻ⱘᦤछぎ䯈DŽ „ 㸠Ϯ䆘㑻DŽফӴ㒳Ϯࡵ๲䭓ᬒ㓧 3ˈGㄝᮄϮࡵ๲䭓ᏺࡼ࡯ᇮᔅⱘᕅડˈᔧࠡ䖤㧹Ϯ๲䗳ԢѢ GDP ๲䗳ˈ᱖㓈ᣕ⬉ֵ䖤㧹ϮĀЁᗻāⱘᡩ䌘䆘㑻˗Ԛ 3GᏆᏺᴹ㸠ϮḐሔ䞡ᮄߦߚᴎ䘛ˈ㘨䗮 3GϮ ࡵਜ⦄乚ܜӬ࢓ˈ3GϮࡵᏆऴ݀ৌᬊܹⱘಯߚПϔᔎˈᑊᏺࡼᬊܹᅲ⦄ 20%ҹϞⱘ๲䭓ˈ㸠Ϯݙ Ḑሔ䇗ᭈⱘᡩ䌘ᴎ䘛໻Ѣ㸠Ϯᭈԧᡩ䌘ᴎ䘛DŽ⬉ֵᡩ䌘ℷԈ䱣᭄᥂⍜䌍๲䭓㗠ਜ⦄ಲछᗕ࢓ 乘ˈᳳ Ҟᑈᡩ䌘ಲछᰒ㨫 Ϩ˗䗮ֵ䆒໛㸠Ϯⱘܼ⧗ゲѝ࡯੠Ꮦഎᠽᓴ࡯ҡ໘Ѣᣕ㓁ᦤछ䖛⿟ 㓈ˈᣕ䆒໛Ϯ ĀᔎѢ໻Ꮦāⱘᡩ䌘䆘㑻DŽ „ ᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹DŽĀᡞᦵ⿏ࡼѦ㘨বሔᴎ䘛ˈᡧԣ䗮ֵᡩ䌘ಲछᴎӮāᰃϟञᑈⱘϸᴵᡩ䌘Џ㒓DŽЁ೑㘨 䗮ᰃ⿏ࡼѦ㘨বሔᴎ䘛ϟⱘ佪㽕ফⲞ㗙ˈ݀ ৌ෎ᴀ䴶Ꮖ䎼䖛ᢤ⚍ ᖿˈ䗳৥Ϟⱘ䍟࢓Ꮖ⹂ゟ ᥼˗㤤݋ ᳝⿏ࡼѦ㘨ᑇৄ┰࡯ⱘ⾥໻䆃亲DŽᡩ䌘ಲछ᳝ᳯ೼ϟञᑈᕫࠄ䖯ϔℹ⹂䅸 䆒ˈ໛ᵓഫϮ㒽ད䕀᳝ᳯ ᏺᴹᵓഫϞछᴎӮˈЏ䆒໛ଚᏆ݋໛ԄؐϢϮ㒽ֱ䱰ˈ᥼㤤Ё݈䗮䆃ǃ⛑☿䗮ֵㄝ˗݇⊼ܝ᥹ܹǃ 㔥Ӭㄝ᱃⇨ᄤ㸠ϮDŽ 㸠Ϯಲ乒˖᭄᥂Ϯࡵ֗ᬊܹǃᡩ䌘㡃ᗻᕾ⦃ 䖤㧹Ϯ˖ᬊܹਜ⦄䖥ᑈ᳔དⱘ๲䭓ᗕ࢓ 1-4᳜⬉ֵᬊܹৠ↨๲䭓 9.4% 2011ᑈ 1-4᳜ܼ೑⬉ֵЏ㧹Ϯࡵᬊܹ㌃䅵ᅠ៤ 3083.6ғܗˈ↨Ϟᑈৠᳳ๲䭓 9.4%ˈ೼ 3Gǃᆑᏺϸ໻᭄ ᥂㉏Ϯࡵⱘ๲䭓ᏺࡼϟˈ⬉ֵᬊܹਜ⦄ߎ䖥ᑈ᳔དⱘ๲䭓ᗕ࢓DŽ Ԉ䱣 3G ⱘথሩˈ೑ݙ⿏ࡼ⫼᠋ⱘ 3G Փ⫼дᛃ៪㗙䇈ᰃ᭄᥂ϮࡵՓ⫼дᛃℷ೼䗤ℹᔶ៤DŽϝ໻䖤㧹ଚ ⱘᑈ᡹ⱚড᯴њ䖭ϔ䍟࢓DŽЁ೑㘨䗮㸼⦄᳔Ўᯢᰒˈ݊ 3GϮࡵᬊܹЁ䴲䇁䷇ᬊܹऴ↨Ꮖ䖒 48%ˈܼᑈ᠋᳜ ഛ᭄᥂⌕䞣䖒ࠄ 178Mˈ2010ᑈ 4ᄷᑺ᳈ᰃ䖒ࠄњ᳜ഛ 215Mⱘ∈ᑇDŽЁ೑⬉ֵ 2010ᑈᬊܹ๲ࡴ 111ғܗˈ ⿏ࡼ᭄᥂ঞ݊Ҫ๲ؐϮࡵህ䋵⤂њ 94.5ғܗⱘᬊܹ๲䞣ˈ៤Ў᳔䞡㽕ⱘ๲䭓偅ࡼ࡯DŽЁ⿏ࡼሑㅵ೼ 3GϞ᳝ ࡷ࢓ˈԚ䗮䖛 2G ঞ݊Ҫ᭄᥂ߚ⌕᥾ᮑˈ݊ 2010ᑈ᭄᥂⌕䞣๲䭓њ 112%DŽ݊೼ 2010 ᑈ๲ࡴⱘ 331 ғܗᬊ ܹЁ ᭄ˈ᥂⌕䞣Ϯࡵϔ䎗៤Ў㄀Ѡ໻偅ࡼ࡯ 䋵ˈ⤂ 101ғܗᬊܹ ҙˈ⃵ѢӴ㒳䇁䷇Ϯࡵ˄ ݊䋵⤂њ 131ғܗ˅ˈ ৃҹ乘ᳳ 2011ᑈ᭄᥂⌕䞣Ϯࡵᇍᬊܹ๲䭓ⱘ䋵⤂ᇚ䍙䖛䇁䷇ϮࡵDŽ 䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ 2011ᑈϟञᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2011ᑈ 6᳜ 29᮹ 3 ೒ 1 2˖000ᑈҹᴹ⬉ֵϮࡵᬊܹঞ๲䭓⥛˄ऩԡ ғ˖ܗ˅ 26.4% 16.1% 14.4% 13.9% 12.6% 11.8% 11.7% 10.9% 7.0% 3.9% 6.4% 9.4% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 04 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% ⬉ֵᬊܹ ৠ↨๲䭓 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ᎹϮ੠ֵᙃ࣪䚼ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 2˖2009ᑈҹᴹ⬉ֵ᳜ᑺᬊܹঞৠ↨๲䭓 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% ⬉ֵ᳜ᑺᬊܹ˄ғܗ˅ ᑈݙ㌃䅵ৠ↨๲䭓˄%˅:݀Ꮧؐ 20 09 01 20 09 03 20 09 05 20 09 07 20 09 09 20 09 11 20 10 01 20 10 03 20 11 01 20 11 03 20 10 05 20 10 07 20 10 09 20 10 11 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ᎹϮ੠ֵᙃ࣪䚼ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⿏ࡼϮࡵ๲䭓ᑇ〇 1-4 ᳜ӑˈܼ೑⿏ࡼ⬉䆱⫼᠋㌃䅵ޔ๲ 4138.6 ϛ᠋ˈᑈݙᮄ๲⫼᠋㌃䅵ৠ↨๲䭓 5.8%DŽᘏ⫼᠋さ⸈ 9 ғ᠋ˈ䖒ࠄ 90038.9 ϛ᠋DŽ1-4 ᳜ˈ⿏ࡼ䗮ֵᬊܹ㌃䅵ᅠ៤ 2177.8ғܗˈ↨Ϟᑈৠᳳ๲䭓 13.3%ˈ೼⬉ֵЏ 㧹ϮࡵᬊܹЁ᠔ऴⱘ↨䞡ҢϞᑈৠᳳⱘ 68.15%Ϟछࠄ 70.63%DŽ 1-4᳜⿏ࡼ⬉䆱⫼᠋Ёˈ3G⫼᠋ޔ๲ 2052.1ϛ᠋ˈ3G⫼᠋䖒ࠄ 6757.2ϛ᠋DŽ ೒ 3˖2001ҹᴹ⿏ࡼ⬉䆱⫼᠋๲䭓ᚙމ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 201104 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% ᮄ๲⿏ࡼ⬉䆱⫼᠋˄ⱒϛ᠋˅ ⿏ࡼ⬉䆱⫼᠋˄ⱒϛ᠋˅ ⿏ࡼ⬉䆱⫼᠋ৠ↨๲䭓 ᮄ๲⫼᠋ৠ↨๲䭓 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ᎹϮ੠ֵᙃ࣪䚼ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 4˖2009ᑈҹᴹ⿏ࡼ⬉䆱᳜ᑺᮄ๲⫼᠋ᚙމ 20 09 01 20 09 03 20 09 05 20 09 07 20 09 09 20 09 11 20 10 01 20 10 03 20 11 01 20 11 03 20 10 05 20 10 07 20 10 09 20 10 11 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% ⿏ࡼ⬉䆱ᮄ๲⫼᠋᭄˄ⱒϛ᠋˅ ᑈݙ㌃䅵ᮄ๲⿏ࡼ⫼᠋ৠ↨๲䭓 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ᎹϮ੠ֵᙃ࣪䚼ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 5˖⿏ࡼ⬉䆱⏫䗣⥛ᦤछ㟇 64% 64.40 22.10 0 15 30 45 60 75 ⿏ࡼ⬉䆱⏫䗣⥛˄䚼/ⱒҎ˅ ೎ᅮ⬉䆱⏫䗣⥛˄䚼/ⱒҎ˅ 20 05 01 20 05 05 20 05 09 20 06 01 20 06 05 20 06 09 20 07 01 20 07 05 20 07 09 20 08 01 20 08 05 20 08 09 20 09 01 20 09 05 20 09 09 20 10 01 20 11 01 20 10 05 20 10 09 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ᎹϮ੠ֵᙃ࣪䚼ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ 2011ᑈϟञᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2011ᑈ 6᳜ 29᮹ 4 㸼 1˖1-4᳜೎ᅮᴀഄϢ⿏ࡼᴀഄ䗮䆱䞣↨䕗 ᣛᷛৡ⿄ ऩԡ 2011ᑈ 1-4᳜ 2010ᑈ 1-4᳜ ๲䭓⥛(%) ೎ᅮᴀഄ⬉䆱䗮䆱䞣 ғ⃵ 1223.6 1505 -18.7 ݊Ё˖Ӵ㒳೎ᅮ⬉䆱 ғ⃵ 1117.1 1259.6 -11.3 ᮴㒓Ꮦ䆱 ғ⃵ 106.4 245.5 -56.6 ⿏ࡼᴀഄ⬉䆱䗮䆱ᯊ䭓 ғߚ䩳 6140.2 5339 15.0 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ᎹϮ੠ֵᙃ࣪䚼 ೎䆱⫼᠋⌕༅⬹᳝㓧㾷 1-4᳜ӑˈܼ೑೎ᅮ⬉䆱⫼᠋ޣᇥ 293.3ϛ᠋ˈ䖒ࠄ 29145.0ϛ᠋DŽ೎ᅮ⬉䆱⫼᠋Ёˈ᮴㒓Ꮦ䆱⫼᠋ޣᇥ 387.0ϛ᠋ˈ䖒ࠄ 2476.2ϛ᠋ˈ೼೎ᅮ⬉䆱⫼᠋Ё᠔ऴⱘ↨䞡ҢϞᑈᑩⱘ 9.7%ϟ䰡ࠄ 8.5%DŽ ೒ 6˖೎䆱ϟ䰡䍟࢓䍟㓧 20% 23% 19% 12% 5% -1% -7% -8% -6% -5% -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 04 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% ೎ᅮ⬉䆱⫼᠋᭄˄ⱒϛ˅ ᮄ๲⫼᠋ ೎ᅮ⬉䆱⫼᠋๲䭓⥛ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ᎹϮ੠ֵᙃ࣪䚼ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 7˖2009ᑈҹᴹ೎ᅮ⬉䆱ᮄ๲⫼᠋ᚙމ -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 -150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% ೎ᅮ⬉䆱ᮄ๲⫼᠋᭄˄ⱒϛ᠋˅ ೎ᅮ⬉䆱ᑈݙ㌃䅵ৠ↨ᮄ๲ 20 09 01 20 09 02 20 09 03 20 09 04 20 09 05 20 09 06 20 09 07 20 09 08 20 09 09 20 09 10 20 09 11 20 09 12 20 10 01 20 10 02 20 10 03 20 10 04 20 11 01 20 11 02 20 11 03 20 11 04 20 10 05 20 10 06 20 10 07 20 10 08 20 10 09 20 10 10 20 10 11 20 10 12 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ᎹϮ੠ֵᙃ࣪䚼ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ᆑᏺϮࡵֱᣕ䕗ᖿ๲䭓 1-4᳜ᆑᏺ⫼᠋