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首页 【政治学】选举改革的政治学

【政治学】选举改革的政治学.pdf

【政治学】选举改革的政治学

九月虺
2011-05-05 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《【政治学】选举改革的政治学pdf》,可适用于人文社科领域

THEPOLITICSOFELECTORALREFORMChangingtheRulesofDemocracyElectionslieattheheartofdemocracy,andthisbookseekstounderstandhowtherulesgoverningthoseelectionsarechosenDrawingonbothbroadcomparisonsanddetailedcasestudies,itfocusesupontheelectoralrulesthatgovernwhatsortsofpreferencesvoterscanexpressandhowvotestranslateintoseatsinalegislatureThroughdetailedexaminationofelectoralreformpoliticsinfourcountries(France,Italy,Japan,andNewZealand),AlanRenwickshowshowmajorelectoralsystemchangesinestablisheddemocraciesoccurthroughtwocontrastingtypesofreformprocessRenwickrejectsthesimpleviewthatelectoralsystemsalwaysstraightforwardlyreflecttheinterestsofthepoliticiansinpowerPoliticians’motivationsarecomplexpoliticiansaresometimesunabletopursuereformstheywantoccasionally,theyareforcedtoacceptreformstheyopposeThePoliticsofElectoralReformshowshowvotersandreformactivistscanhaverealpoweroverelectoralreformalanrenwickisalecturerinComparativePoliticsattheUniversityofReadingTHEPOLITICSOFELECTORALREFORMChangingtheRulesofDemocracyALANRENWICKSchoolofPoliticsandInternationalRelationsUniversityofReadingcambridgeuniversitypressCambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown,Singapore,SãoPaulo,DelhiCambridgeUniversityPressTheEdinburghBuilding,CambridgeCBRU,UKPublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyCambridgeUniversityPress,NewYorkwwwcambridgeorgInformationonthistitle:wwwcambridgeorg©AlanRenwickThispublicationisincopyrightSubjecttostatutoryexceptionandtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewrittenpermissionofCambridgeUniversityPressFirstpublishedPrintedintheUnitedKingdomattheUniversityPress,CambridgeAcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibraryLibraryofCongressCataloguinginPublicationDataRenwick,Alan,–Thepoliticsofelectoralreform:changingtherulesofdemocracyAlanRenwickpcmISBN(hardback)ElectionsVotingRepresentativegovernmentandrepresentationITitleJFR–dcISBNHardbackCambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyofURLsforexternalorthirdpartyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication,anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriateInmemoryofmygrandmother,SheilaStruthersCONTENTSListoftablespageixListoffiguresxListofabbreviationsxiAcknowledgementsxiiiIntroductionPARTIBuildingblocksWhatmotivatesactorsFrommotivationstooutcomes:exogenousfactorsThereformprocess:endogenousfactorsPARTIIElitemajorityimpositionFrance:therecurrentgameofelectoralreformItaly:thesearchforstabilityJapan:thepersistenceofSNTVElitemajorityimposition:comparativeanalysisPARTIIIElite–massinteractionItaly:dilutingproportionalrepresentationJapan:theabandonmentofSNTVNewZealand:MMPinaWestminstersettingviiElite–massinteraction:comparativeanalysisConclusionsandimplicationsAppendix:glossaryofelectoralsystemterminologyBibliographyIndexviiicontentsTABLESTypesofelectoralsystempageMajorelectoralreformsinestablisheddemocraciessincePerformanceofthepowermaximizationandinherentcontingentfactorsapproachesinrelationtomajorelectoralreformsinestablisheddemocraciesTypologyofpowerseekingconsiderationsValuesinelectoralreformSummaryofmajorelectoralreforminFrancesinceResultsofthetwoconstituentassemblyelections,–SummaryofmajorelectoralreforminItalysinceElectionresultsfortheconstituentassembly,,andChamberofDeputies,andSummaryofmajorelectoralreforminJapansinceElectionoutcomesandDietcompositioninJapan,–Actors’objectivesinelectoralreformLegitimacyconstraintsandelectoralreformReformbyelitemajorityimpositionandthenumberofpartiesElectionstotheItalianChamberofDeputies,andElectionstotheJapaneseHouseofRepresentatives,–ElectionstotheNewZealandParliament,–ElectoralreformreferendumresultsinNewZealandElectoralsystemchangesinestablisheddemocraciessinceixFIGURESIncidenceofmajorelectoralreformsinceWorldWarIIpageTypesofelectoralreformxABBREVIATIONSACTAssociationofConsumersandTaxpayersortheACTPartyADNAlleanzaDemocraticaNazionale(NationalDemocraticAlliance)ANAlleanzaNazionale(NationalAlliance)ANCAfricanNationalCongressAValternativevoteBAbonusadjustedsystemBCBordacountBVblockvoteCDUChristlichDemokratischeUnion(ChristianDemocraticUnion)CGPKōmeitō(CleanGovernmentParty)CSUChristlichSozialeUnion(ChristianSocialUnion)CVcumulativevoteDCDemocraziaCristiana(ChristianDemocracy,generallyknownastheChristianDemocrats)DPJDemocraticPartyofJapanDSPDemocraticSocialistPartyENPeffectivenumberofparties,intermsofeithervotes(ENPV)orseats(ENPS)ERCElectoralReformCoalitionFDPFreieDemokratischePartei(FreeDemocraticParty)FPTPfirstpastthepostGHQGeneralHeadquartersoftheAlliedOccupationForcesJCPJapaneseCommunistPartyJNPNihonShintō(JapanNewParty)JSPJapanSocialistPartyJTJapanTimesLDPLiberalDemocraticParty(ofJapan)listPRlistproportionalrepresentationLVlimitedvoteMMMmixedmembermajoritarianMMPmixedmemberproportionalMRPMouvementRépublicainPopulaire(PopularRepublicanMovement)MSIMovimentoSocialeItaliano(ItalianSocialMovement)NFPShinshintō(NewFrontierParty)xiNZHNewZealandHeraldPBVpartyblockvotePCFPartiCommunisteFrançais(FrenchCommunistParty)PCIPartitoComunistaItaliano(ItalianCommunistParty)PDSPartitoDemocraticodellaSinistra(DemocraticPartyoftheLeft)ParteidesDemokratischenSozialismus(PartyofDemocraticSocialism)PLIPartitoLiberaleItaliano(ItalianLiberalParty)PRproportionalrepresentationPRIPartitoRepubblicanoItaliano(ItalianRepublicanParty)PSPartiSocialiste(FrenchSocialistParty)PSDIPartitoSocialistaDemocraticoItaliano(ItalianSocialDemocraticParty)PSIPartitoSocialistaItaliano(ItalianSocialistParty)RCRifondazioneComunista(CommunistRefoundation)RPFRassemblementduPeupleFrançais(RallyoftheFrenchPeople)SADCSouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunitySFIOSectionFrançaisedel’InternationaleOuvrière(FrenchSectionoftheWorkers’International,predecessortothePS)SMDsinglememberdistrictSMPsinglememberpluralitySNTVsinglenontransferablevoteSPDSozialdemokratischeParteiDeutschlands(SocialDemocraticPartyofGermany)STVsingletransferablevoteTRStworoundsystemUDCUnionedeiDemocraticiCristianiedeiDemocraticidiCentro(UnionofChristianDemocratsandDemocratsoftheCentre)UDFUnionpourlaDémocratieFrançaise(UnionforFrenchDemocracy)UMPUnionpourunMouvementPopulaire(UnionforaPopularMovement)xiilistofabbreviationsACKNOWLEDGEMENTSIhaveincurredmanydebtswhileresearchingandwritingthisbookAttheverybeginning,AlanWareencouragedmetoturnwhatIhadenvisagedasanarticleintoalargerprojecthehascontinuedtoofferedinvaluableguidanceeversinceNumerouscolleaguesandfriendshaveofferedsupport,kindness,andprobingquestions,includingNancyBermeo,NigelBowles,MartinCeadel,DavidErdos,ElizabethFrazer,DavidGoldey,DesmondKing,IainMcLean,MarinaPopescu,GáborTóka,StephenWhitefield,andLaurenceWhiteheadAsacomparativist,IhaveoftenleantuponthegreaterexpertiseofothersineachofthecountriesIstudyOnFrance,IamparticularlyindebtedtoDavidGoldeyandAndyKnappBenCliftalsogavevaluablehelpOnItaly,MartinBull,ChrisHanretty,andDavidHineansweredmyquestionswithknowledgeandpatienceIanNearygavemeinvaluableinitialorientationinJapanesepolitics,andSarahHydeandArthurStockwinhaveprovidedgreatadviceandencouragementthroughoutWhileinJapan,IspokewithKentaroFukumoto,HiroshiHirano,TakashiInoguchi,IkuoKabashima,andStevenReed,andfromeachconversationIgainednewinsightsThepeopleofNewZealanddeserveacollectivemedalfortheiropennessandhospitalityDuringawonderfulmonthbasedatthePoliticalScienceandInternationalRelationsProgrammeofVictoriaUniversityofWellington,Igainedimmeasurablyfromthekindnessandinsightfulnessofnumerouscolleagues,especiallyJohnLeslie,StephenLevine,ElizabethMcLeay,andKateMcMillanIalsometPeterAimerandJackVowlesinAuckland,bothofwhomhavebeenimmenselyhelpfulandencouragingasmyworkhasproceededIinterviewedmanypoliticiansandotherpublicfigureswhileinNewZealandorbytelephoneafterwardsManyoftheseinterviewsarelistedinthebibliographyeventhosenotlistedcontributedtomyunderstandingofNewZealandpoliticsIamparticularlygratefultoMurryMcCully,whograntedmeaccesstohispapersinArchivesNewZealand,xiiiandPhilSaxby,whohascontinuedtoshowgreatinterestintheprojectsincewemetBeyondthesefourcorecountries,IamgratefultoSarahBirch,AndréBlais,KenCarty,PatrickDunleavy,DavidFarrell,RichardKatz,ShaheenMozaffar,JeanBenoitPilet,GideonRahat,andBenReillyforsharingtheirideasandenthusiasmforthesubjectIhavepresentedpapersonmattersrelatingtothisbookatvariousseminarsandconferencesManywhoattendedtheseeventsaskedquestionsthatforcedmetoclarifyoraltermyideas,andIamespeciallygratefulinthisregardtoNancyBermeo,PhilipGiddings,JonathanGolub,XiaomingHuang,DesKing,TimPower,ThomasSaalfeld,MichaelSteed,OisínTansey,JackVowles,andLaurenceWhiteheadIamparticularlyindebtedtothosewhoreadandcommentedonpreviousdraftsofthemanuscriptinwholeorinpart:PeterAimer,SarahBirch,NigelBowles,MartinCeadel,DavidErdos,DavidFarrell,DavidGoldey,ChrisHanretty,RichardKatz,MariaPretzler,GideonRahat,BenReilly,ArthurStockwin,AlanWare,andStephenWhitefieldAllmadesuggestionsthatgreatlyimprovedthebookIcouldnothavecompletedthisresearchwithoutthekindnessandhospitalityofnumerousfriendsandcolleagueswhosupportedmeinOxfordandonmyresearchtripsaroundtheworldIthankWillieBooth,whosadlypassedawaywhilethisbookwasinproduction,aswellasPamandSteveEdwards,KateHeard,KerensaHeffron,CameronandSilvieHepburn,SamKessler,DuncanMcGillivray,JimandMaryMcGillivray,JohnMeade,CatherineMuller,AdrienneNolan,SarahOgilvie,MariaPretzler,YasukoGoto,MarkSchaan,JaneShaw,andRichardTauntIfinishedmostoftheworkforthisbookwhileaJuniorResearchFellowatNewCollege,OxfordNewCollegeisanextraordinarycommunityofscholarsandfriends,andmyworkandlifehavebeenimmeasurablyenrichedbymytimethereImovedinthefinalstagesoftheprojecttotheUniversityofReading,wherecolleagueshavebeenwarm,supportive,andintellectuallychallengingFinally,IshouldliketothankJohnHaslam,ChristinaSarigiannidou,CarrieParkinson,andFionaSewellatCambridgeUniversityPressTheyhavebeenremarkablysupportive,efficient,andhelpfulthroughoutourdealingsToallthesepeopleIamtrulygratefulIremainwhollyresponsible,ofcourse,forallerrorsanddeficienciesthatremainxivacknowledgementsIntroductionElectionslieattheveryheartofmoderndemocracyTheyaretypicallytheoccasionswhencitizensbecomemostdirectlyengagedinthepoliticalprocesstheydeterminetheidentityofthosewhowillgovern,oftenforfourorfiveyearsandtheysignificantlyinfluencehowthatgoverningpowercanbeexercisedTherulesthatgovernelectionsthereforemattertoo,fortheycanhaveamajorimpactuponoutcomesHaddifferentelectoralrulesbeeninplace,GeorgeWBushmightnothavebeenelectedtotheAmericanpresidencyinandTonyBlairmightneverhavesecuredamajorityoftheseatsintheBritishHouseofCommonsHadlessproportionalrulesbeenused,Italymightnothavebeenquitesoplaguedby‘revolvingdoor’governmentsforthelastsixtyyearsConversely,hadproportionalrepresentationnotbeenchosenaspartoftheinterimconstitutionof,SouthAfricamightnothaveachievedsuchremarkabledemocraticstabilityafteritshardfoughttransitionfromwhiteonlyruleGiventheimportanceofelectoralrules,itmattersthatweunderstandwherethoserulescomefromThreequestionsinparticulardemandourattentionFirst,whohasthepowertochoosetheelectoralsystemTowhatextentdopoliticianscontrolthedecisionprocessTowhatextentaretheyconstrainedorcantheybeentirelydisplacedbyothers,includingcitizens,judges,andforeignpowersSecond,whatinterestsorvaluesdothesechoicesserveIfpoliticiansareincontrol,dotheysimplypursuetheirownnarrowselfinterestorcantheybemotivatedbybroadervaluesIfcitizensareinvolved,aretheyalsocapturedbynarrowpartisaninterestsorcantheyfocusonthewidergoodofthepolityInsofarasvaluesmatter,whicharethesevaluesandwhatdeterminestheirroleThird,whatelectoralsystemchangesarelikelytotakeplaceHowoftenisreformlikelytooccuringeneral,andcanwepredictitsincidenceinparticularcountriesIsitcorrect,asColomer(a:–)argues,thatelectoralsystemchoicesarelargelydeterminedbytheprevailingpartysystem–specifically,bythenumberofpartiesitcontainsIsittrue,asColomer(a:–)againcontends,thatthereisageneraldriftinthedirectionofmoreproportionalsystemsTheseareallbigquestionsTheycanbeapproachedusingmultiplemethods,andnosinglemethodislikelytoyieldanswersthatentirelyexhaustourcuriosityThreeapproachesinparticularcanbedistinguishedOneusesformaltheorytoderiveprecisehypothesesthatcansubsequentlybetestedagainstrealityThisapproachhasbeenfruitfullyexploitedbyBenoit(),Boix(),Colomer(a,),andIversenandSoskice()Thesecondemploysevidence,whetherstatisticalorqualitative,fromalargenumberofcasesBoix()andColomer(a,)testtheirtheoreticalhypothesesagainstsuchdataGallagher()andKatz()employinferencefrombroadsurveysofcasestogroundavarietyofpropositionsThethirdusesintensiveanalysisofasmallerrangeofcasesinordertoteaseoutmechanismsthatarehardertodiscernathighergeneralityNotableexamplesincludeBirchetal()onpostcommunistcountries,Reilly()ontheAsiaPacific,Mozaffar()onAfrica,andRahat()onIsraelincomparativeperspectiveExceptinsinglecasestudies,thelastofthesethreemethodshasnotbeenusedextensivelytostudyreformsinestablisheddemocraciesButitshouldbe,andthisisthemethodandtheempiricalfocusthatIadoptinthisbookAsIshallargue,theanswerswecandeveloptothequestionsstatedaboveareenrichedgreatlyifweengagewiththecomplexityandcontingencyofdiverseelectoralreformprocessesSpecifically,theconventionalanswerstothesequestionsarethatpoliticiansdominatethechoiceofelectoralsystem,thatindoingsotheypursuetheirownpowerinterests,andthatthisimpliesbothastrongconnectionfromthenumberofpartiestothechoiceofelectoralsystemandageneraltrendtowardstheadoptionofmoreproportionalsystemsIarguethattheseanswersareeitherwrongortoosimpleInfact,ordinarycitizenshaveconsiderableinfluencetoo,conceptionsofthepublicinterestcanmatter,thelinkfromthepartysystemtotheelectoralsystemiscomplex,andthereisnocleartrend–atleastinestablisheddemocracies–towardsgreaterproportionalityIfocusonmajorchangesinelectoralsystemsElectorallawcomprisesenormouslymanyelements,includingwhohastherighttovoteorrunforoffice,howvotersareregistered,whoconductselectionsfollowingwhatadministrativeprocedures,howcampaignsarefinanced,howpeoplevote,whatpreferencesvoterscanexpress,andhowvotesaretranslatedintoseats(onmanyoftheseaspects,seeMassicotte,Blais,andintroductionYoshinaka)Icannotcoverallofthesehere,and,incommonwithmostelectoralsystemscholars,Ilimittheinquirytothelasttwoelements,concerningthenatureofthevoteanditstranslationintoseatsItistotheseelementsthatthelabelofelectoralsystemistypicallygivenAtthemostgenerallevel,twotypesofelectoralsystemcanbedistinguishedFirst,therearepluralityormajoritysystems:thoseinwhichthecandidateorcandidateswhogainthegreatestnumberofvotesinavotingdistrictwintheseatorseatsavailable,whileallotherswinnothingSecond,thereareproportionalsystems:thoseinwhichtheseatsavailablearedividedupbetweencandidatesorpartiesinproportiontothenumberofvotestheywinWithineachofthesecategories,however,furtherdistinctionscanbemade,andsomesystemsdonotneatlyfiteithercategoryInthisbook,IemployaclassificationoffourteendifferenttypesofelectoralsystemThisisbasedonatwelvewayclassificationdevelopedbyReynolds,Reilly,andEllis(:–),towhichIaddtwofurthercategories–bonusadjustedsystemsandcumulativevote–intowhichsomeofthecasesIdiscussfallThesefourteentypesarelistedinTableandexplainedintheAppendixIdefinemajorelectoralsystemchangeasashiftfromoneofthesecategoriestoanotherInanalysingmajorelectoralsystemchanges,IfocusprimarilyonreformstothesystemsusedtoelectnationallegislativelowerhousesIdonotconsiderchangesatsuborsupranationallevels,suchastheadoptionofmixedmemberproportional(MMP)systemsforelectionstotheScottishParliamentandWelshAssemblyandlistproportionalrepresentation(listPR)forBritishelectionstotheEuropeanParliamentNordoIanalyseupperhousereforms–suchasJapan’sHouseofCouncillorsreformin–orchangesinthemethodofchoosingtheheadofgovernment–notably,thedirectelectionoftheFrenchpresidentinandoftheIsraeliprimeministerinIalsofocusprimarilyuponreformsinestablisheddemocraciesThatelectoralsystemsoftenchangeinthecourseofdemocratizationishardlysurprising:someauthoritarianstatesallownolegislativeelectionsatallinothers,theelectoralsysteminheritedfromauthoritariantimesmaynotbeserviceableforthedemocraticfutureReformsinneworfragiledemocraciesarealsotobeexpected:thesearecountrieswheretheinstitutionalframeworkhasnotbeddeddownorisendangeredbysystemicinstabilityTheassociationofelectoralreformwithdemocratizationisillustratedbyFigure,whichchartsinbroadtermsthenumberofcasesofmajorelectoralreforminnonauthoritariancontextssinceWorldWarIIThecharthastwopeaksThefir

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