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Towards Pax Sinica? China’s Rise and Transformation: Impacts and Implications Pax Sinica CRC 05-11-09.indb 1 11/5/2009 7:01:08 PM Pax Sinica CRC 05-11-09.indb 2 11/5/2009 7:01:08 PM Towards Pax Sinica? China’s Rise and Transformation: Impacts and Implications Editor Emile Kok-Kheng Yeoh Institute of China Studies Pax Sinica CRC 05-11-09.indb 3 11/5/2009 7:01:09 PM Institute of China Studies University of Malaya 50603 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel: 603-79565663 Fax: 603-79565114 http://ics.um.edu.my © Institute of China Studies First published in 2009 COPYRIGHT All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted, in any form, or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the publisher. Under the Copyright Act 1987, any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication shall be liable to prosecution and claims for damages. Perpustakaan Negara Malaysia Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Towards pax sinica? : China rise and transformation : impacts and implications / editor Emile Kok-Kheng Yeoh. Bibliography: p. 304 ISBN 978-967-5148-50-7 1. China—Foreign relations. 2. China—Economic conditions. I. Yeoh, Emile Kok-Kheng. 327.51 Printed by Vinlin Press Sdn. Bhd. No. 2, Jalan Meranti Permai 1 Meranti Permai Industrial Park Batu 15, Jalan Puchong 47100 Puchong, Selangor Darul Ehsan Pax Sinica CRC 05-11-09.indb 4 11/5/2009 7:01:09 PM Contents List of Tables vii List of Figures viii Contributors x Introduction 1 China’s Rise and Transformation 3 Emile Kok-Kheng Yeoh China’s Rise: Regional Challenges 2 China’s Changing Relations with Southeast Asia: 23 A Political Analysis Samuel C. Y. Ku 3 The Rise of China, Power Transition and 48 South Korea’s Soft Hedging Sukhee Han 4 Japan’s Perspective on the Threat and Opportunity of China 68 Takashi Hoshiyama 5 Vietnam-China Relations and Building the “Two Corridors, 82 One Economic Belt” Do Tien Sam and Ha Thi Hong Van China’s Dilemma: Rural and Urban 6 Whither China’s Agriculture and Rural Sector? 95 Some Thoughts on Changes in Rural China and Possible Effects on ASEAN John A. Donaldson and Forrest Zhang 7 Finding a Home in China’s “Restless Urban Landscape” 116 Kate Hannan Pax Sinica CRC 05-11-09.indb 5 11/5/2009 7:01:09 PM vi ♦ Contents China’s Future: International Milieu, Ethnoterritoriality and Realpolitik 8 China after Thirty Years of Reform and Open Policy: Quo Vadis? 139 Im-Soo Yoo 9 Emerging Threats in South, Central and West Asian Regions: 160 China’s Strategy and Responses Mutahir Ahmed 10 China and Spain: Critical Junctures, Ethnoterritoriality and 173 Paths of Reform and Devolution Emile Kok-Kheng Yeoh Index 305 Pax Sinica CRC 05-11-09.indb 6 11/5/2009 7:01:09 PM List of Tables Table 2.1 ASEAN’s Trade with China 28 Table 2.2 China’s FDI Flow into ASEAN and Its Share 30 Table 2.3 Visitors from China and Japan to ASEAN 32 Table 2.4 China’s and ASEAN’s GDP Per Capita and 36 Economic Growth Rates Table 3.1 Korean Export/Import/Trade Balance against the 55 US and China Table 5.1 China’s FDI in Vietnam by Sector 84 Table 5.2 Kunming-Lao Cai-Hanoi-Hai Phong Economic Corridor 87 Table 5.3 Nanning-Lang Son-Hanoi-Hai Phong Economic Corridor 87 Table 5.4 Tonkin Gulf Economic Belt 88 Table 6.1 Relationships between Agribusiness and 99 Farmers in China: A Typology Table 10.1 Spain: Comunidades Autónomas 177 Table 10.2 China: Rural Poverty 202 Table 10.3 Diamond’s Sixfold Typology of Regime Classification 203 Table 10.4 China’s Western Region: Major Economic Indicators 236 Pax Sinica CRC 05-11-09.indb 7 11/5/2009 7:01:09 PM List of Figures Figure 5.1 China-Vietnam Trade Relations 83 Figure 5.2 Map of the Two Economic Corridors and 86 One Economic Belt Figure 10.1 Spain: Total Expenditure, Current & Capital 178 Expenditures – Ratio of Regional & Provincial Governments to Central Government Figure 10.2 Spain: Total Expenditure, Current & Capital 178 Expenditures – Growth of Regional & Provincial Governments to Central Government Ratio Figure 10.3 Spain: Total Expenditure as Percentage of GDP at 179 All Levels of Government Figure 10.4 China: Government Expenditure and Revenue as 179 Percentages of GDP Figure 10.5 Van Amersfoort’s Typology of Dominant-Subordinate 181 Relations Figure 10.6 Spain: The Autonomous Communities and 182 Non-Castilian Ethnolinguistic Distribution Figure 10.7 China: Local Government Expenditure and 183 Revenue Respectively as Percentages of Total Government Expenditure and Revenue Figure 10.8 Spain: Decentralization of Government Expenditure 184 Figure 10.9 Spain: Distribution of Public Resources by 185 Autonomous Community Figure 10.10 Spain: Distribution of Public Resources by 186 Ethnolinguistic Region Figure 10.11 China: Local Government Revenue 187 Figure 10.12 China: Central-to-Local Governments’ Earmarked 188 Transfers and Other Local Government Revenues Figure 10.13 China: Transfers from Central Government and Sub- 188 total Revenue (i.e. Revenue which Are Not Transfers from Central Government) of Local Governments Figure 10.14 China: Transfers from Central Government and Sub- 189 total Revenue (i.e. Revenue which Are Not Transfers Pax Sinica CRC 05-11-09.indb 8 11/5/2009 7:01:09 PM from Central Government) as Percentages of Total Revenue of Local Governments Figure 10.15 China: Central-to-Local Governments’ Transfer 189 Payments Figure 10.16 Spain: Expenditure on Wages & Salaries at 190 All Levels of Government Figure 10.17 Spain: Expenditure on Wages & Salaries – Central 191 Government and Regional & Provincial Governments Figure 10.18 China, Taiwan and ASEAN: Political Rights and 208 Civil Liberties Figure 10.19 China: Most Concerned Social Problems 214 Figure 10.20 China: Incidents of Public Protest (Qunti Shijian) 217 Figure 10.21 China: Numbers of People Involved in 218 Public Protests (Qunti Shijian) Figure 10.22 Interrelationship of Ethnic Fragmentation and 234 State Policy Figure 10.23 China: Three Economic Regions 237 Figure 10.24 China: Distribution of Rural Poor 237 Figure 10.25 China: Urbanization in Ethnic Zizhiqu and 238 Multiethnic Provinces Figure 10.26 China: Gini by Province/Zizhiqu/Zhixiashi 238 Figure 10.27 China: Average Education Level in Ethnic Zizhiqu and 239 Multiethnic Provinces Figure 10.28 China: Illiteracy in Ethnic Zizhiqu and 239 Multiethnic Provinces Figure 10.29 China: Incidence of Absolute Poverty by 240 Province/Zizhiqu/Zhixiashi Figure 10.30 China: Population Engaged in Agriculture in 240 Ethnic Zizhiqu and Multiethnic Provinces Figure 10.31 Power-Size Configuration of Ethnic Groups 244 Figure 10.32 Typology of Multiethnic Societies 245 Figure 10.33 Schermerhorn’s Fourfold Typology of 246 Dominant-Subordinate Relations Figure 10.34 Vertical v Horizontal Ethnic Division 249 Figure 10.35 Marden and Meyer’s Model of Dominant-Subordinate 251 Relations and Class Structure Figure 10.36 Ethnic and Class Relations 252 Figure 10.37 Bonacich’s Model of Ethnic and Class Relations 253 Resulting from Imperialism Figure 10.38 China: Identity Circles 255 List of Figures ♦ ix Pax Sinica CRC 05-11-09.indb 9 11/5/2009 7:01:09 PM Contributors Dr Đỗ Tiến Sâm 杜进森, Director and Associate Professor, Institute of Chinese Studies and Centre for ASEAN and China Studies, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences. Email: dtiensam@yahoo.com Dr John A. Donaldson, Assistant Professor of Political Science, School of Social Sciences, Singapore Management University, Singapore. Email: jdonaldson@smu.edu.sg Hà Thị Hồng Vân 何氏红云, Department of Chinese Socio-economic Studies, Institute of Chinese Studies and Centre for ASEAN and China Studies, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences. Email: vanhongha@yahoo. com Dr Sukhee Han 한석희 / 韓碩煕, Director, China Division, Institute of East- West Studies; Assistant Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, Republic of Korea. Email: shan65@yonsei.ac.kr Dr Kate Hannan, Associate Professor and Principal Research Fellow, School of History and Politics, Faculty of Arts, University of Wollongong, Australia. Email: kateh@uow.edu.au Takashi Hoshiyama 星山隆, Minister and Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of Japan in Malaysia. Email: takashi.hoshiyama@mofa.go.jp Dr Samuel C.Y. Ku 顧長永, Professor, Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies, National Sun Yat-sen University, Taiwan. Email: cyku@mail.nsysu. edu.tw Dr Mutahir Ahmed, Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi, Pakistan. Email: mutahir62@yahoo.com Dr Emile Kok-Kheng Yeoh 楊國慶, Director and Associate Professor, Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya, Malaysia. Email: emileyeo@correo. nu, emileyeo@gmail.com Pax Sinica CRC 05-11-09.indb 10 11/5/2009 7:01:09 PM Dr Im-Soo Yoo 유임수 / 劉壬洙, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya, Malaysia; Emeritus Professor of Economics, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; President, Asia-Europe Perspective Forum; former President, Korean Association for Contemporary European Studies, Korean-German Association of Social Science and Korean- German Association of Economics and Management. Email: isyoo@ewha. ac.kr, isyoo42@gmail.com Dr Forrest Zhang 张谦, Assistant Professor of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, Singapore Management University, Singapore. Email: forrestzhang@smu.edu.sg Contributors ♦ xi Pax Sinica CRC 05-11-09.indb 11 11/5/2009 7:01:09 PM Pax Sinica CRC 05-11-09.indb 12 11/5/2009 7:01:09 PM