046《经济学家》读译参考之四十六：尾巴摇狗－“长尾效应”面面观

A text a day TEXT 46 Wag the dog 尾巴摇狗（陈继龙 编译） （译注：英语中有这样一种说法，即“It’s a case of the tail wagging the dog”，直译为“这可是一件尾巴摇狗的事。”，比喻“某个不重要的事物占据主导地位”。） Jul 6th 2006 From The Economist print edition FOR the past two years in Silicon Valley, the centre of America's technology industry, conference-goers have entertained themselves playing a guessing game: how many times will a speaker mention the phrase “long tail”? It is usually a high number, thanks to the influence of the long-tail theory, which was first developed by Chris Anderson, the editor of Wired magazine, in an article in 2004. （1）Though technologists and bloggers chuckle[1] at how every business presentation now has to have its long-tail section, most are envious of Mr Anderson, whose brainwave quickly became the most fashionable business idea around. 过去两年来，美国科技产业中心——硅谷中参加各类会议的人们都自娱自乐地玩着一种猜谜游戏：一位演讲者会多少次提到“长尾巴”一词？一般而言，次数会很多。这是“长尾巴理论”的影响使然，《连线》杂志编辑克里斯·安德森于2004年在一篇文章中首创了这一理论。对于如今每个行业都必须表现出其自身的“长尾巴”，技术专家和博客作家们都觉得很可笑，不过他们多数人都很妒忌安德森，此人的灵感竟然迅速成了风靡一时的商业理念。 Whether a b_________① film, a bestselling novel, or a chart-topping rap song, popular culture idolises the hit. Companies devote themselves to creating them because the cost of distribution and the limits of shelf space in physical shops mean that profitability depends on a high volume of sales. But around the beginning of this century a group of internet companies realised that with endless shelves and a national or even international audience online they could offer a huge range of products—and make money at the same time. 无论是大片、畅销小说还是领先排行榜的说唱音乐，所有通俗文化都对“热销作品”推崇备至。各公司之所以致力于打造这些“热销作品”，是因为商品流通的成本以及现实商店货架空间的局限性都意味着卖得多才赚得多。但在本世纪初前后，一些互联网公司认识到，拥有了无限的货架空间和来自全国甚至全世界的在线观（听）众，它们所能提供的产品范围就非常广，同时也就可以挣到钱了。 The niche, the obscure and the specialist, Mr Anderson argues, will gain ground at the e_______② of the hit. As evidence, he points to a drop in the number of companies that traditionally calculate their revenue/sales ratio according to the 80/20 rule—where the top fifth of products contribute four-fifths of revenues. Ecast, a San Francisco digital jukebox[2] company, found that 98% of its 10,000 albums sold at least one track every three months. Expressed in the language of statistics, the experiences of Ecast and other companies such as Amazon, an online bookseller, suggest that products down in the long tail of a statistical distribution, added together, can be highly profitable. （2）The internet helps people find their way to relatively obscure material with recommendations and reviews by other people (and for those willing to have their artistic tastes predicted by a piece of software) computer programs which analyse past selections. 安德森认为，那些瞄准市场特殊领域、市场定位模糊或者针对专业人士的产品虽然不能“热销”，但也会逐渐发展壮大。为了证明这一点，他指出，一直以来通过“二八定律”来计算收入/销售比的公司数量已经有所减少。根据“二八定律”，80%的收入都来自销售额居前5位的产品。旧金山数字唱片公司Ecast发现，在1万张唱片中，有98%的唱片每3个月就至少售出1个曲目。从统计学角度看，Ecast以及亚马逊在线书店等其它公司的此类经验表明，对分布在统计图中“长尾巴”区域的产品进行集中销售，可以获取高额利润。互联网帮助人们通过他人的推荐和评点，找到那些市场定位相对比较模糊的产品。对于那些喜欢利用软件来鉴别其艺术品味的人而言，则可通过计算机程序来分析以往人们的选择情况，从而也能找到此类产品。 Long-tail enthusiasts argue that the whole of culture will benefit, not just commercial enterprises. Television, film and music are such bewitching[3] media in their own right that many people are quite happy to watch and listen to what the mainstream provides. But if individuals have the opportunity to pick better, more ideally suited entertainment from a far wider selection, they will take it, according to the theory of the long tail. Some analysts reckon that entire populations might become happier and wiser once they have access to thousands of documentaries, independent films and sub-genres[4] of every kind of music, instead of being subjected to what Mr Anderson calls the t________③ of lowest-common-denominator[5] fare. That might be taking things a bit far. But the long tail is certainly one of the internet's better gifts to humanity. 热衷“长尾巴理论”的人认为，受益于这一理论的将是文化整体，而不仅仅是商家。影视和音乐等媒体必须有一定实力才能让人为之着魔，因此许多人都十分喜欢观看和收听主流媒体提供的节目。但是，根据“长尾巴理论”，假如一些个人有机会在更大的选择范围中挑选更精彩、更适合自己口味的娱乐节目，他们也会接受。有分析人士估计，一旦得以欣赏到数以千计的纪录片、独立制作的电影和各种非主流音乐，而不是受制于安德森所称的“最小公分母”（也就是“随大流”），大家都会更高兴，也更明智。这么说可能有点言过其实了，但是“长尾巴”肯定是互联网赐予人类的上佳礼物之一。 Conglomerates[6], such as Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation, on the other hand, regard the long tail as another swing at them from a dragon-like blogosphere which resents the “mainstream media” or MSM, as bloggers often call it. Lowest-common-denominator hits, after all, are an important part of their business. Like many people connected to the technology industry, Mr Anderson (formerly a journalist for The Economist) clearly relishes[7] the way the internet is challenging traditional media companies. Perhaps because of this, he is a little too dismissive of hits. Some are indeed manufactured and cynical: the music industry b_______④ radio stations to blitz people with tracks they have picked; book publishers pay retailers for the spot in the window; and Hollywood holds back films from honest reviewers lest a bad write-up[8] spoil an opening. But most hits are popular because they are of high quality. As Mr Anderson's book acknowledges, there is an awful lot of dross[9] in the tail. （3）And the way in which the internet makes it easy for people to share likes and dislikes about entertainment will help hits as well as more obscure material. 另一方面，像鲁珀特·默多克新闻公司这样的大集团却认为，“长尾巴”是虎视眈眈的博客圈对它们的又一轮冲击，而博客圈都对博客作家们通常所谓的“主流媒体”（简称MSM）深恶痛绝。毕竟对他们行业而言，属于“最小公分母”的“热销作品”是一个重要组成部分。显然，安德森（曾在《经济学家》担任记者）喜欢互联网对传统媒体公司的这种挑战。也许正因为此，他对“叫座作品”有点太不屑一顾了，有的地方甚至带有捏造和挖苦的意味——音乐行业对广播电台施以恩惠，使之将选好的曲目铺天盖地地播放给人们收听；图书出版商为了能在橱窗中占得一席之地就要掏钱给零售商；好莱坞担心实话实说的影评人乱说一气搞砸了影片首映而对其避而远之。其实，大多数“热销作品”之所以受欢迎是因为其一流的品质。诚如安德森的书中所承认的那样，“长尾巴”的确有着许多糟糕的粗制滥造品。对“热销作品”以及许多市场定位模糊的产品而言，互联网这种让人们轻松分享对娱乐节目好恶的方式都是有帮助意义的。 Mr Anderson has backed away somewhat from his original article in Wired in which he suggested that the long tail would be a bigger market than the hits. His book says, more cautiously, that “all those niches can potentially add up to a market that is as big as (if not bigger than) the hits.” Perhaps the true effect of unlimited digital distribution on individual media choices will be even more positive than he imagines. It may be that only the middling, manufactured sort of hit will fall by the wayside: the g________⑤ popular variety will remain just as powerful. Most hits start somewhere in the long tail and move up; so as content in the tail becomes easier to discover, the hits that emerge from it should also be of higher quality. 相比原先在《连线》杂志撰写的那篇文章中所阐述的观点而言，安德森现在已经有所收敛。当时，他认为“长尾巴”将比“热销作品”拥有更大市场。而他的这本书却比较谨慎地写道，“从发展潜力上看，市场所有特殊领域将构成一个与‘热销作品’市场一样大（如果不是更大的话）的市场。”数字发行量的无限性对个人选择媒体的真正影响也许比他想象得要更具有积极意义。或许只有那些质量一般、胡编乱造的所谓“叫座作品”才会无法长久立足，而真正受欢迎的作品仍将一如既往地强势。大多数“热销作品”最开始也属于“长尾巴”，后来才得以步步攀升；只要“长尾巴”中的产品更容易被人发现，从中涌现的“热销作品”也应当具有较高的品质。 One weakness of this otherwise excellent book is that it tries to apply the theory of the long tail to fields far beyond entertainment and e-commerce. Offshoring, for instance, is the long tail of labour, says Mr Anderson, and there is also a long tail of national security, in which a “short head” of state violence has been challenged by niche producers such as gangs and terrorists. （4）In trying to find long tails everywhere, Mr Anderson risks diluting some of his idea's meaning and novelty. 这本书虽说十分优秀，但也存在不足之处，那就是它试图将“长尾巴”理论应用于远远超出娱乐和电子商务之外的领域。比如说，安德森认为外包业是劳动力中的“长尾巴”，还认为国家安全也存在“长尾巴”，国家行政暴力由于“考虑不周”而被一些帮派和恐怖主义者等机会分子钻了空子。安德森冒昧地刻意淡化其某些观点的意义和新奇性，企图表明“长尾巴”放之四海而皆准。 The cover of Mr Anderson's book promises to answer the question: “Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More”. But his book may alarm as well as help businessmen. Karl Marx once described a communist society in which “nobody has one exclusive sphere of activity but each can become accomplished in any branch he wishes...to hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening, criticise after dinner.” Mr Anderson suggests that the long tail is bringing about something similar. （5）The tools of media production—computers, desktop printers, video cameras—are now so widely and cheaply available that a generation of young people are becoming amateur journalists, commentators, film-makers and musicians in their spare time, rather as the philosopher imagined. Amateurs offering their work free of charge will contribute a significant portion of the long tail, so at the very end there will be a “non-monetary economy[10],” says Mr Anderson. If true, that could prove to be the most fascinating long-tail effect of all. 从封面上看，该书似乎要回答这样一个问题——“未来大买卖为什么越做越小”。不过，本书对商人们而言，既具警示意义，也有帮助作用。卡尔·马克思曾如此描述共产主义社会：“人们的活动都不是孤立的，但每个人不管做什么事情，只要如其所愿，都能驾轻就熟……早晨狩猎，下午垂钓，傍晚养畜，晚餐后指点江山。”安德森认为，“长尾巴”也在产生类似的效应。如今媒体制作工具如计算机、打印机、摄像机等都十分普及，价钱也不贵，以致于年轻一代闲来无事都成了业余记者、评论员、电影出品人和音乐家，这跟马克思所设想的颇为类似。安德森说，业余爱好者由于免费提供其作品，因此将在“长尾巴”中占相当大的比例，于是最终会形成一种“物物交换经济”模式。设若果真如此，那将可能是最富魅力的“长尾巴”效应。 [QUIZ] 1. 根据首字母以及括号内的词性提示和英文释义填入单词（注意复数、时态形式变化等）： ①b________（n. a book or film that is very good or successful） ②e________（n. the amount of money that you spend on something） ③t________（n. cruel or unfair control over other people） ④b________（v. to illegally give someone, especially a public official, money or a gift in order to persuade them to do something for you） ⑤g________ （adv. actually; honestly; really） 2. 英译汉（将划线部分英文翻译成中文）： 3．汉译英（根据译文提示和上下文，在空白处填入相应英文）： [NOTES](LONGMAN) 1. chuckle v.(at) 轻声地笑，暗自发笑 2. jukebox n. 投币式自动点唱机 3. bewitching adj. 令人着迷的，让人着魔的 4. genre n. 流派 5. lowest-common-denominator n. 最小公分母（的）；〔引申〕被大多数人接受的 6. conglomerate n. 大公司，联合企业，集团 附注：大公司（a big company）: corporation, multinational, conglomerate 互联网公司（an Internet company）: dot-com 子公司（a company that is owned by a larger company）: subsidiary, affiliate 公司名缩写形式（abbreviations used in company names）: Ltd (Limited)；Co. (Company)； Corp. (Corporation)；PLC (英国人用法，Public Limited Company，澳大利亚和南非则用Pty.，即Proprietary) 7. relish v. 欣赏，品味 8. write-up n. (关于新书、电影的)评论；报道 9. dross n. 次品，废物，渣滓 10. non-monetary economy 物物交换经济 [TIPS & BACKGROUNDS] 长尾巴理论：根据wikipedia的解释，长尾（Long Tail）是2004年Chris Anderson在给连线杂志的文章中首次使用的词汇，用以描述某种经济模式如Amazon.com或Netflix。长尾术语也普遍使用于统计学中，如对财富分布或词汇应用的统计。长尾理论的基本原理是：只要存储和流通的渠道足够大，需求不旺或销量不佳的产品所共同占据的市场份额可以和那些少数热销产品所占据的市场份额相匹敌甚至更大。即众多小市场汇聚成可与主流大市场相匹敌的市场能量。Google被认为是安德森长尾理论的最佳例证。Google所服务的客户正是那些品牌影响力不够强大，而且渠道不健全的中小企业。Google的Adsense服务80%的产业尾巴，从而获得成功。 二八定律：又称80/20法则，由意大利经济学家帕累托1897年提出，他的统计结论显示，20%的人口拥有80%的财富。虽然这并非严格的准确数字，80/20法则还是被广泛用以指导商业活动，比如营销学中认为20%的客户购买了80%的产品，因而营销将面向这些主流客户。 [KEY TO QUIZ] 1. ①blockbuster 轰动（影片、著作）（best-seller, hit） ②expense 代价；损失（at the expense of归……付费；在损害……的情况下） ③tyranny 〔附注〕 表示“a government that controls people's lives too much”：dictatorship独裁 • police state 极权国家• junta 军政府• tyranny暴政，专制 • totalitarian极权主义者 • oppressive压迫性的 ④bribes（kickback回扣，小费；backhander回扣；bung好处费，小施恩惠） ⑤genuinely 真正地 〔附注〕 （1）表示“when someone really feels something”：really • real • sincere • genuine • heartfelt • from the heart • truly • true （2）表示“not false or artificial”：real • genuine • authentic • bona fide真诚的（地）；真实的（地） • natural • the real thing上等货，原装货，地道货 • the genuine article • the real McCoy真品，真货 2.（见译文，仅供参考，欢迎指正）