16 Overblown： How Politicians and the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Thre

Review: [untitled] Author(s): G. John Ikenberry Source: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 1 (Jan. - Feb., 2007), p. 156 Published by: Council on Foreign Relations Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20032221 . Accessed: 14/03/2011 15:37 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at . http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=cfr. . Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. Council on Foreign Relations is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Foreign Affairs. http://www.jstor.org Recent Books realms: peace ends when a state declares war, at which point law gives way to emergency powers. Kennedy argues that beginning with the Cold War and continu ing with the rise of low-intensity conflict and the "war on terror," the distinction between war and peace has broken down. At the same time, ideas about law and military conduct are changing: interna tional law has increasingly taken the form of humanitarian and human rights norms, while military establishments are increas ingly infused with bureaucratic legal guidance. Kennedy's interesting claim is that these complex developments have turned war into a "legal institution" in which the use of force is governed by a dense network of rules and shared as sumptions among global elites. Many people applaud this legal-professional turn in modern warfare, but Kennedy worries that the language of law has in fact diffused responsibility and eroded political leadership in the wielding of violence. This is an original contribution to the debate about the perils of liberal democracy in an age of limited but unending war. have died in terrorist attacks, especially compared with other causes of death, such as car accidents, but the real fear of terrorism is prospective: it is focused on the possibility that an extremist network will detonate a nuclear device in a major city. Mueller acknowledges such a pos sibility but, taking issue with Harvard's Graham Allison and other experts, finds the obstacles to such a terrorist act for midable. In surveying encounters with past foreign threats (Pearl Harbor, Soviet communism), he sees a pattern of exag geration, posturing, and-after 9/11-a "terrorism industry" that has a vested interest in alarmism. This book will provoke a lively debate-and to the extent it encourages an honest discussion of risk, this is to be welcomed. Moreover, Mueller's recommendations are ultimately quite sensible: since overreacting to groups such as al Qaeda plays into their hands, a long-term response to terrorism should entail patient and methodical intelligence, law enforcement, and homeland security. The Upside ofDown: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization. BY THOMAS HOMER-DIXON. Island Press, 2006, 416 pp. $25.95. In this important study of the looming dangers of social and economic catastro phe, Homer-Dixon, a Canadian expert on the environment, security, and complex systems, argues that Western society faces a new and expanding array of challenges oil shortages, global warming, economic instability, megaterrorism-that threaten to converge and reinforce one another, setting the stage for "synchronous failure" and the massive breakdown of our modern way of life. He uses the metaphor of an earthquake: a series of "tectonic stresses" Overblown: How Politicians and the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats, and Why We Believe Them. BY JOHN MUELLER. Free Press, 2006, 272 pp. $25.00. In this provocative book, the noted political scientist Mueller argues that reactions to terrorism are a greater threat than terrorism itself. The scope and destructiveness of international terrorism, he contends, are limited; it is the inflation of this threat and the policy overreactions to it that impose severe costs on society. Mueller is correct to note that very few people [156] FOREIGN AFFAIRS* Volume86No.z Article Contents p. 156 Issue Table of Contents Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 1 (Jan. - Feb., 2007), pp. 1-186 Front Matter Comments The United States, Iraq, and the War on Terror: A Singaporean Perspective [pp. 2-7] The Clash of Emotions: Fear, Humiliation, Hope, and the New World Order [pp. 8-12] Essays The Challenge of Global Health [pp. 14-38] Fidel's Final Victory [pp. 39-56] Saving Afghanistan [pp. 57-74, 76-78] A Battle for Global Values [pp. 79-90] Hands off Hedge Funds [pp. 91-101] Has Globalization Passed Its Peak? [pp. 103-111, 113-114] The Faces of Chinese Power [pp. 115-127] Negotiating with Terrorists [pp. 128-138] Reviews & Responses Review Essay Review: The Real Meaning of Military Transformation: Rethinking the Revolution [pp. 140-147] Review: Civil Rights, Uncivil Wrongs: The War on Terrorism's Toll on the U.S. Constitution [pp. 148-154] Recent Books on International Relations Political and Legal Review: untitled [p. 155-155] Review: untitled [pp. 155-156] Review: untitled [p. 156-156] Review: untitled [pp. 156-157] Review: untitled [p. 157-157] Review: untitled [pp. 157-158] Economic, Social, and Environmental Review: untitled [p. 158-158] Review: untitled [pp. 158-159] Review: untitled [p. 159-159] Review: untitled [p. 159-159] Review: untitled [p. 160-160] Military, Scientific, and Technological Review: untitled [pp. 160-161] Review: untitled [p. 161-161] Review: untitled [p. 161-161] Review: untitled [pp. 161-162] Review: untitled [p. 162-162] The United States Review: untitled [p. 163-163] Review: untitled [p. 163-163] Review: untitled [pp. 163-164] Review: untitled [p. 164-164] Review: untitled [pp. 164-165] Western Europe Review: untitled [p. 165-165] Review: untitled [pp. 165-166] Review: untitled [p. 166-166] Review: untitled [pp. 166-167] Review: untitled [p. 167-167] Western Hemisphere Review: untitled [pp. 167-168] Review: untitled [p. 168-168] Review: untitled [pp. 168-169] Review: untitled [p. 169-169] Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Republics Review: untitled [pp. 169-170] Review: untitled [p. 170-170] Review: untitled [p. 170-170] Review: untitled [pp. 170-171] Review: untitled [p. 171-171] Review: untitled [p. 171-171] Review: untitled [p. 172-172] Middle East Review: untitled [pp. 172-173] Review: untitled [p. 173-173] Review: untitled [p. 173-173] Review: untitled [pp. 173-174] Review: untitled [p. 174-174] Review: untitled [pp. 174-175] Asia and Pacific Review: untitled [pp. 175-176] Review: untitled [p. 176-176] Review: untitled [p. 176-176] Review: untitled [pp. 176-177] Africa Review: untitled [pp. 177-178] Review: untitled [p. 178-178] Review: untitled [pp. 178-179] Review: untitled [p. 179-179] Review: untitled [p. 179-179] Letters to the Editor The "Israel Lobby" [p. 180-180] More Guns and Butter [pp. 180-181] Counting Shiites [p. 181-181] What French Europe? [pp. 181-182] Europe and Its Muslims [pp. 182-184] Iraqi Oil Production [p. 184-184] Back Matter